2013-14 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[PaulieWal]

The teams LeBron played had a slightly better DRtg than Durant's "way tougher competition"

And still were very very worse offensive teams. Having the luxury of coasting on defense during the postseason is a nice thing.

LeBron was primarily guarding JJ/PP in the Nets series and PG and Lance occasionally against the Pacers. LeBron has not coasted at all on defense during the PS. He did "coast" during the RS but in the PS he has been playing like a two-way force and that's not really debatable. His defense has been great for the most part in the PS.

[Nbafanatic]

Before the finals LeBron had better stats over the season and made it further in the playoffs. How is playing the Spurs better than Durant (so far) undoing that?

Because to me, Durant had a clear advantage throughout the reg. season and played way tougher competition in the west playoffs. And I'm not sold on Lebron being better than him against the Spurs, so far.

The teams LeBron played had a slightly better DRtg than Durant's "way tougher competition" and he had a PER of 31 against Durants 23 through the playoffs, pushing his RS+PS stats past Durant's.
Against the Spurs LeBron is at 28/7/4@70%TS, ORtg 119 while being the only focus of the Spurs defense vs. Durant's 26/8/3 @ 57%TS, ORtg 105 while not even being the best player on his own team. Seems pretty clear to me who was better.

I don't wanna sound like a lebron hater, as I love the guy's game, but c'mon man... Do you really think you can compare stats when one guy is playing the bobcats without their best player healthy and the nets, e the other is playing the grizzlies and the clippers? To the point about westbrook, I thought he was a little better than Durant overall in the playoffs, I give you that, but, what if nowadays lebron was playing with wade's 2010 or 2011 versions, would lebron be the best for certain in the playoffs? Remember, wade was better than Lebron in the 2011 finals.

[Doctor MJ]

Glad to see the LeBron vs Durant debate continuing here.

I personally have not made up my mind yet, but what I will say is that the last two games - as crazy as they've been - don't strike me as saying much at all about LeBron relative to other stars. It's all about the Spurs. If the Spurs finish out the series like they've done, I'll have no bones about calling Popovich the Most Valuable Person in the NBA, and we'll have to seriously start considering whether the '10s will be the decade of Pop. This is astonishing of course because if we're honest, a coach has never had impact like this. People might have thought Red Auerbach did, but it became clear over time that Bill Russell was indisputably more important, just like every other Player of the Decade level star...until now. This is unprecedented.

Bottom line is that LeBron is more impressive looking on offense than Durant was against the Spurs, and the Heat offense is actually doing okay. What's happening here is all about the Spurs offense, and it would be absurd to think that Durant could make this stop as a defender.

The practical caveat to all this is that while these last two games probably clinch the title for the Spurs, NO ONE is actually THIS good. This Spurs are very good, and Pop's strategic updates this year very effective, but the team is also just, plain hot. I don't see a way to search for all I want to search for, but it seems like through 4 games, the Spurs are putting up the GOAT Finals offensive performance and are outscoring their opponent per game more than any champion has ever done in the Finals.

I just don't think it's realistic to think that they could keep this up indefinitely, and hence we need to be careful about spinning too dramatic of a LeBron narrative here.

What's undeniable though is that if things continue as they are, LeBron the GOAT candidate is going to have to deal with a perception that he individually wasn't good enough to overcome great coaching the way Jordan, etc was. That's rough because stars of earlier eras did not have to deal with the strategic advances that have fostered team basketball all the more. Those of us trying to be objective will try to hold this in our mind, but most won't.

[bondom34]

The more I look into it, the more I feel like the 1/2 spots are about what you value more, the regular season or post season. Pulling up the comp on bbr, its like they flipped. Durant to me had a clear RS advantage, Lebron a clear PO advantage. I don't know what to do with it right now, and keep going back and forth mentally with it. It was clearer when OKC had just lost, but San Antonio has basically done the same thing to the Heat.

[bondom34]

snip

PS. Doc I PM'ed about voting, didn't know if you got it, but I'm interested in having a vote if possible.

[Texas Chuck]

Doc,

I know we have the and 1 button for this (and I used it), but I just wanted to highlight what a great post you just made in regards Lebron and Pop and the Spurs. I hope everyone takes the time to read that. Well done, mate.

[PaulieWal]

LeBron the GOAT candidate is going to have to deal with a perception that he individually wasn't good enough to overcome great coaching the way Jordan, etc was. That's rough because stars of earlier eras did not have to deal with the strategic advances that have fostered team basketball all the more. Those of us trying to be objective will try to hold this in our mind, but most won't.

Great post as always Doc but Jordan had one of the GOAT coaches to help him in PJ. This is no knock on Spo who I think has grown as a coach but is still getting outcoached badly by Pop (who himself is a GOAT coach candidate). That's why I am not sure if the narrative should be that Jordan overcame great coaching but LeBron can't. Sure KD struggled against the Spurs but almost everyone here would agree that Brooks was also getting outcaoched by Pop. With Brooks it was more of not running offensive plays and the offensive stagnation which cost them the series. For Miami, Spo is refusing to give up his trapping defense and Pop is using that against him. Boris freaking Diaw said that they are trapping and we are just finding the open man yet Spo has not gone away from it. LeBron has called out Spo after games 3 and 4 without actually calling him out by name.

[PaulieWal]

snip

PS. Doc I PM'ed about voting, didn't know if you got it, but I'm interested in having a vote if possible.

bondom, you don't deserve a vote. You are too damn objective.

[RSCD3_]

snip

PS. Doc I PM'ed about voting, didn't know if you got it, but I'm interested in having a vote if possible.

As did I, I am also interested in being a part of the voting process


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[parapooper]

The more I look into it, the more I feel like the 1/2 spots are about what you value more, the regular season or post season. Pulling up the comp on bbr, its like they flipped. Durant to me had a clear RS advantage, Lebron a clear PO advantage. I don't know what to do with it right now, and keep going back and forth mentally with it. It was clearer when OKC had just lost, but San Antonio has basically done the same thing to the Heat.

RS PER: 29.8 vs. 29.3
PS PER: 31.0 vs. 22.6

RS ORtg 123 vs. 121
PS ORtg 110 vs. 124
I don't think "they flipped" is the most accurate term for both having basically the same stats in the RS and Durant being closer to an average player than to LeBron in the PS.

If you think Durant was clearly ahead in the RS than why is LeBron not more clearly ahead in the RS+PS combined?
They only way I would have given it to Durant is if LeBron had performed significantly worse against the Spurs than him, but LeBron is actually significantly better so far. His TS even went up against the Spurs, which puts a bit of a damper on the argument that LeBron was better in the first rounds because of weaker competition.

[Nbafanatic]

Glad to see the LeBron vs Durant debate continuing here.

I personally have not made up my mind yet, but what I will say is that the last two games - as crazy as they've been - don't strike me as saying much at all about LeBron relative to other stars. It's all about the Spurs. If the Spurs finish out the series like they've done, I'll have no bones about calling Popovich the Most Valuable Person in the NBA, and we'll have to seriously start considering whether the '10s will be the decade of Pop. This is astonishing of course because if we're honest, a coach has never had impact like this. People might have thought Red Auerbach did, but it became clear over time that Bill Russell was indisputably more important, just like every other Player of the Decade level star...until now. This is unprecedented.

Bottom line is that LeBron is more impressive looking on offense than Durant was against the Spurs, and the Heat offense is actually doing okay. What's happening here is all about the Spurs offense, and it would be absurd to think that Durant could make this stop as a defender.

The practical caveat to all this is that while these last two games probably clinch the title for the Spurs, NO ONE is actually THIS good. This Spurs are very good, and Pop's strategic updates this year very effective, but the team is also just, plain hot. I don't see a way to search for all I want to search for, but it seems like through 4 games, the Spurs are putting up the GOAT Finals offensive performance and are outscoring their opponent per game more than any champion has ever done in the Finals.

I just don't think it's realistic to think that they could keep this up indefinitely, and hence we need to be careful about spinning too dramatic of a LeBron narrative here.

What's undeniable though is that if things continue as they are, LeBron the GOAT candidate is going to have to deal with a perception that he individually wasn't good enough to overcome great coaching the way Jordan, etc was. That's rough because stars of earlier eras did not have to deal with the strategic advances that have fostered team basketball all the more. Those of us trying to be objective will try to hold this in our mind, but most won't.

Great points, Doc. I agree that Lebron is having a better playoffs than Durant, I just feel that the regular season advantage that Durant had was larger than the edge Lebron has so far in the playoffs. The thing about Pop is that I think San Antonio reached a new level of execution in game 5 vs OKC. So, perhaps is fair to say that Lebron is playing against a better version og this very own Spurs team from 2014.

[parapooper]

Because to me, Durant had a clear advantage throughout the reg. season and played way tougher competition in the west playoffs. And I'm not sold on Lebron being better than him against the Spurs, so far.

The teams LeBron played had a slightly better DRtg than Durant's "way tougher competition" and he had a PER of 31 against Durants 23 through the playoffs, pushing his RS+PS stats past Durant's.
Against the Spurs LeBron is at 28/7/4@70%TS, ORtg 119 while being the only focus of the Spurs defense vs. Durant's 26/8/3 @ 57%TS, ORtg 105 while not even being the best player on his own team. Seems pretty clear to me who was better.

I don't wanna sound like a lebron hater, as I love the guy's game, but c'mon man... Do you really think you can compare stats when one guy is playing the bobcats without their best player healthy and the nets, e the other is playing the grizzlies and the clippers? To the point about westbrook, I thought he was a little better than Durant overall in the playoffs, I give you that, but, what if nowadays lebron was playing with wade's 2010 or 2011 versions, would lebron be the best for certain in the playoffs? Remember, wade was better than Lebron in the 2011 finals.

DRtgs of all the teams both player played were between 99 (the #1 defense which LeBron played) and 107 for the Nets. So there is an 8 % difference in DRtg, the average DRtg LeBron played was actually better, but somehow the gigantic gap between LeBron and Durant (31 vs. 23 PER, 124 vs. 110 ORtg) is explained by this small difference in competition? And that LeBron is playing clearly better against the exact same Spurs despite being the single focus of their defense doesn't matter somehow?

[bondom34]

The more I look into it, the more I feel like the 1/2 spots are about what you value more, the regular season or post season. Pulling up the comp on bbr, its like they flipped. Durant to me had a clear RS advantage, Lebron a clear PO advantage. I don't know what to do with it right now, and keep going back and forth mentally with it. It was clearer when OKC had just lost, but San Antonio has basically done the same thing to the Heat.

RS PER: 29.8 vs. 29.3
PS PER: 31.0 vs. 22.6

RS ORtg 123 vs. 121
PS ORtg 110 vs. 124
I don't think "they flipped" is the most accurate term for both having basically the same stats in the RS and Durant being closer to an average player than to LeBron in the PS.

If you think Durant was clearly ahead in the RS than why is LeBron not more clearly ahead in the RS+PS combined?
They only way I would have given it to Durant is if LeBron had performed significantly worse against the Spurs than him, but LeBron is actually significantly better so far. His TS even went up against the Spurs, which puts a bit of a damper on the argument that LeBron was better in the first rounds because of weaker competition.

OK, they "flipped" was probably a poor choice of words. That being said, looking at the overall numbers, and taking into account that Durant played nearly half (I think 36 games) of the RS without the clear cut second best player on his team, yet still carried them to a better overall record in a tougher conference, carries a bit of weight to me. Though Lebron played without Wade, even a fully healthy/recovered Wade hasn't exactly been great, and wouldn't presumably have the impact of Westbrook. Flipped was a poor choice of words for the stats.

[Nbafanatic]

The teams LeBron played had a slightly better DRtg than Durant's "way tougher competition" and he had a PER of 31 against Durants 23 through the playoffs, pushing his RS+PS stats past Durant's.
Against the Spurs LeBron is at 28/7/4@70%TS, ORtg 119 while being the only focus of the Spurs defense vs. Durant's 26/8/3 @ 57%TS, ORtg 105 while not even being the best player on his own team. Seems pretty clear to me who was better.

I don't wanna sound like a lebron hater, as I love the guy's game, but c'mon man... Do you really think you can compare stats when one guy is playing the bobcats without their best player healthy and the nets, e the other is playing the grizzlies and the clippers? To the point about westbrook, I thought he was a little better than Durant overall in the playoffs, I give you that, but, what if nowadays lebron was playing with wade's 2010 or 2011 versions, would lebron be the best for certain in the playoffs? Remember, wade was better than Lebron in the 2011 finals.

DRtgs of all the teams both player played were between 99 (the #1 defense which LeBron played) and 107 for the Nets. So there is an 8 % difference in DRtg, the average DRtg LeBron played was actually better, but somehow the gigantic gap between LeBron and Durant (31 vs. 23 PER, 124 vs. 110 ORtg) is explained by this small difference in competition? And that LeBron is playing clearly better against the exact same Spurs despite being the single focus of their defense doesn't matter somehow?

But as was said before, when you play against better ofensive teams, it puts more pressure on you to deliver offensively. And you are using number from teams who obviously played the majority of games against the weaker conference, anyway. But, being my own devil's advocate, the Spurs is playing a notche above since game 5 of the wcf, so Lebron is even playing an improved Spurs team.

[Doctor MJ]

The more I look into it, the more I feel like the 1/2 spots are about what you value more, the regular season or post season. Pulling up the comp on bbr, its like they flipped. Durant to me had a clear RS advantage, Lebron a clear PO advantage. I don't know what to do with it right now, and keep going back and forth mentally with it. It was clearer when OKC had just lost, but San Antonio has basically done the same thing to the Heat.

In general, I think there's a clear trend of established superstars holding back in the regular season to a degree, and if it's not enough to seriously jeopardize the playoff run, I'll largely take a guy's play during a deep playoff run as his "grade" for the year. This is basically how I see LeBron right now - as a guy who is essentially the same guy who was clearly the best player last year.

(That's still a little open to change because he's still playing, but with 1-3 games left in a season where the Heat have played 100 games, I'll be very wary of letting that influence me much.)

The question then is how we see Durant. I really don't have a problem with anyone who says Durant in January was more impressive than LeBron was all season, but when we average the entire season together (I don't think the post-season erases the regular, but it's a significant part of the mix), it's pretty hard for me to imagine at this point being enough for him to push past my perception of LeBron. Maybe someone will convince me, but I think it will be tough.

[ElGee]

It's going to come down to how LeBron does against the Spurs. Granted, I'm expecting that to be enough for him to win out.

Using this as a launchpad for some of my thoughts heading into the Finals:

I'm already anticipating a Spurs win, and the Spurs have a great defense. For LeBron in this series, I'll almost strictly be looking at ability to exert defense pressure/energy throughout extended periods of the series as well as the way in which he attacks the wall the Spurs will likely build against him. The Heat countered this last year by trying to create spacing mismatches where the Spurs couldn't overload on LeBron, so I'm keeping that in mind out of the gate for his modes of attack. (That means that if he's making skip passes left and right and getting his teammates great shots, I'm not concerned with whether those shots fall in evaluating James.) This also means that if he goes nuclear I'll be pretty darn impressed, but I would have to see a lot for him to not take the top spot. A 2011 Dallas repeat wouldn't necessarily change that depending on how it went down.

Thoughts so far?

I'm going to perform an experiment with myself as the subject. First, I'm going to answer you without looking at any data. Like, NONE. Hopefully this can be used in the future as a case study -- obviously, we could do some pretty powerful stuff if we formalized the experiment -- but for now, it can just be me. After I answer without looking at any data, I'll look at all the data. (By no data I mean I can recall the Spurs won by 15, lost by a few, then won by 20+ twice. I know TD has some double-doubles, Leonard and Green had huge G3's, but I literally no just about zero other numbers or stats from the series. Haven't looked at a thing. I have, however, monitored most of the per-play "action" in the series as a result of stat-tracking.

So my thoughts on LeBron without Data?

Offensively, looks good. The Spurs have used a different defense in this eerie than last year, with Leonard up on James. They've also switched PnR's more it seems like, depending on defender and spot on the floor. I'm not entirely sure why Pop has done this -- it could be something internally he prefers, or it could be a respect for LeBron's improved jumper, or it could be something about the way LeBron/Mia has sort of cracked that space they give him by going under the screen. Spo has countered by spreading the floor with shooters and it has helped. I feel like Allen and Lewis have shot well in the series, although Mario Chalmers has been a disaster and Cole/Wade are not really shooters.

LeBron's offensive decisions have been very aggressive. His shot selection good. I haven't seen absolutely amazing skip passes or anything of the sort but he feels like the single dominant offensive force for the Heat -- a fairly relentless machine putting pressure on the defense. Leonard is an excellent defender, and in many ways his been just another body out there guarding LeBron. LBJ's posts have been successful -- I'm not even sure the Heat's offense has been anything short of awesome with James in the game until G4's first half.

On defense I haven't been disappointed but I do see a drop off. The guy still switches on to Parker and basically just shuts him down -- it's impressive. But he also doesn't rotate as hard/quickly, doesn't protect the rim as much (some of this is likely scheme but some of it some less frenetic rotations) and I definitely see a lesser effectiveness against the wing guys like Leonard/Green. It's again not that he's below average, just doesn't dominate them.

Overall: I see a non-nuclear but good performance from him on offense (bordering on excellent?) and a slight drop off in defense. This jibes with my take on him this year that his offense is at or setting a new personal high, and his defense has waned slightly.

My thoughts on LeBron with Data

The Heat's ORtg in SAS with LBJ on the court was 113. It dropped off in Miami. LBJ has 19 Opportunities Created and 19 Fouls Drawn in 4 games, and has the best offensive EV of the series. Opponents are shooting 42% against him from 2 but he's committed 11 defensive errors (slightly high). His DEV is neutral. Leonard has done really well against him when LeBron is on defense, but James has done well switching on top Duncan and especially TP. He needed help 8 times in 7 games last year. He's needed help 8 times in less than half the possessions thus far this year.

Offensively his +11.6 EV/100 is tops in the series. (Leonard is the top overall performer.) For comparison, he was +8.9/100 last year.

This echoes what was said above. LBJ has been really good on offense, and his defensive footprint isn't quite the same. Although I am surprised his creation numbers are so low. Some of that is a reflection of Pop's decision to play him differently this year, but I think he's also left some extra value that would make this an "excellent" grade (or better) if he were to swap some turnovers for some shots or passes.

[Doctor MJ]

LeBron the GOAT candidate is going to have to deal with a perception that he individually wasn't good enough to overcome great coaching the way Jordan, etc was. That's rough because stars of earlier eras did not have to deal with the strategic advances that have fostered team basketball all the more. Those of us trying to be objective will try to hold this in our mind, but most won't.

Great post as always Doc but Jordan had one of the GOAT coaches to help him in PJ. This is no knock on Spo who I think has grown as a coach but is still getting outcoached badly by Pop (who himself is a GOAT coach candidate). That's why I am not sure if the narrative should be that Jordan overcame great coaching but LeBron can't. Sure KD struggled against the Spurs but almost everyone here would agree that Brooks was also getting outcaoched by Pop. With Brooks it was more of not running offensive plays and the offensive stagnation which cost them the series. For Miami, Spo is refusing to give up his trapping defense and Pop is using that against him. Boris freaking Diaw said that they are trapping and we are just finding the open man yet Spo has not gone away from it. LeBron has called out Spo after games 3 and 4 without actually calling him out by name.

Oh my point is pretty much precisely that one shouldn't say something "The difference was that Jordan overcame a great opposing coach." While, say, Chuck Daly did a great job against Jordan, it's not the same as the situation with Pop. Or rather you could say, "And Jordan still torched'em!"...but you can say the same about LeBron. Pop's a great defensive coach, but that's not why the Spurs are dominating, it's the offense that's doing it.

Put another way: The thing that made Daly a Hall of Fame coach is something Pop has too...as a secondary strength.

Man, if the series ends this way, it's going to send a shockwave through the NBA. I mean, how naive does it look the Heat trying to make a Big 4 instead of a Big 3 by adding an offense only player when they just got torched by a Big Zero with an offensive performance well north of one anyone realistic can expect of the Big 4?

For any organization that didn't get it already, a decisive Spur championship here will hammer home the idea that you simply cannot expect to win titles no matter the player talent you stockpile unless you also master the starte-of-the-art post-modern principles that has let the Spurs re-boot a semi-dynasty without any massive infusion of talent.

[therealbig3]

ElGee, it sounds like your initial feelings (without looking at the data yet) is that 2014 might be LeBron's peak. His best offensive season with a slight regression in defense (sounds similar to how you felt about 2013 vs 2012).

Is that the case?

[ElGee]

Glad to see the LeBron vs Durant debate continuing here.

I personally have not made up my mind yet, but what I will say is that the last two games - as crazy as they've been - don't strike me as saying much at all about LeBron relative to other stars. It's all about the Spurs. If the Spurs finish out the series like they've done, I'll have no bones about calling Popovich the Most Valuable Person in the NBA, and we'll have to seriously start considering whether the '10s will be the decade of Pop. This is astonishing of course because if we're honest, a coach has never had impact like this. People might have thought Red Auerbach did, but it became clear over time that Bill Russell was indisputably more important, just like every other Player of the Decade level star...until now. This is unprecedented.

I've been thinking about this a lot lately, because I think Pop is in many ways the GOAT coach and I think his impact right now on the game is large. And I've been thinking...I cannot fathom Pop's value on any team at lower than +4...and his value on this particular team is...+7? +8? Allowing for multi-year continuity to be fair, it's hard to imagine another coach in the NBA taking the same players of the last 2 or 3 years and having a +5 team this year, let alone a +10 or +11 one...

[ElGee]

ElGee, it sounds like your initial feelings (without looking at the data yet) is that 2014 might be LeBron's peak. His best offensive season with a slight regression in defense (sounds similar to how you felt about 2013 vs 2012).

Is that the case?

Yes, exactly.