2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[sp6r=underrated]

I think this is huge for GS, he's been a massive part in their improved player development I think, for a team like them to have that kind of asset is massive.

On the other hand it makes Charlotte look like an ever bigger joke than they already did. Guessing they cheaped out on him.

This makes him look worse barring something egregious leaking. I'd be very hesitant to hire him after the way he pulled out.

[sp6r=underrated]

Huh, I don't remember anything like that Atkinson thing.

Agreed, bad look if he's hoping to ever leave the Warriors.

Josh McDaniels in the NFL in 2018 with the colts?

Don't really follow non-NBA sports that often these days, but yep, seems similar. Is it becoming somewhat common, or still a rare thing?

Lane Kiffin, a football coach, kind of pulled this the way he left Tennessee after 1 year for USC. He was considered a hot prospect, USC is a better job than Tennessee, so he quit after a year.

That isn't perfectly on point but the unprofessional departure is similar. After he flamed out at USC he had to start working jobs below the Tennesse spot.

[MartinToVaught]

Huh, I don't remember anything like that Atkinson thing.

Belichick "resigning as HC of the NYJ" comes to mind right away.

It's happened in college too. Dana Altman did it to Arkansas back in '07. Bobby Cremins did it to South Carolina (his own alma mater) in '93.

[Outside]

For all the praise Curry deserves after this title, I hope I will never hear anything about how underrated he is on RealGM. Right now, we have people ranking him inside top 6 after this one series. I've been hearing how much superior he is than someone like Magic and that Johnson was simply more fortunate team-wise.

My sense is that Curry inspires a wide range of takes, from overrated to underrated, which I suppose you could say about any player discussed here, but the extremes seem more extreme and sometimes driven by emotion. Being a Warriors and Curry fan, I've seen persistent negative takes that appear to be fallout from general Warriors dislike and the whole KD thing.

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

To me, there's no justification for having him in the top six, which is essentially the GOAT tier. I can see a discussion about inside the top 15, and I see this title opening daylight between him and Chris Paul and Durant. Those are the kinds of discussions that make more sense.

[Doctor MJ]

For all the praise Curry deserves after this title, I hope I will never hear anything about how underrated he is on RealGM. Right now, we have people ranking him inside top 6 after this one series. I've been hearing how much superior he is than someone like Magic and that Johnson was simply more fortunate team-wise.

But '70s my friend, the two things in bold don't go together.

When I was tellin' folks how badly they underrated Curry, I was also tellin' them how it would things would look, at both RealGM and the broader basketball world, if the Warriors came back and did this very thing.

So nope, right now, the thrust of discussion about Curry isn't underrating him. The discussion about him now is basically as was predicted.

Doesn't mean it never was (underrating him), and doesn't mean it never will again.

ftr though, I'm not meaning to suggest I'm vigilantly looking to specifically identify Curry skepticism in the world. The reality for me, since the moment I was inspired to join RealGM in the first place, is that I tend to fixate on players (and teams and other things) that seem to me to diverge in my perception compared to the perception of the dominant voice in the discussion.

Hence, it may be Curry, or it may not be, but I'll probably end up fixated on future players in a similarly trying way. My apologies if I've worn your patience thin.

[falcolombardi]

For all the praise Curry deserves after this title, I hope I will never hear anything about how underrated he is on RealGM. Right now, we have people ranking him inside top 6 after this one series. I've been hearing how much superior he is than someone like Magic and that Johnson was simply more fortunate team-wise.

My sense is that Curry inspires a wide range of takes, from overrated to underrated, which I suppose you could say about any player discussed here, but the extremes seem more extreme and sometimes driven by emotion. Being a Warriors and Curry fan, I've seen persistent negative takes that appear to be fallout from general Warriors dislike and the whole KD thing.

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

To me, there's no justification for having him in the top six, which is essentially the GOAT tier. I can see a discussion about inside the top 15, and I see this title opening daylight between him and Chris Paul and Durant. Those are the kinds of discussions that make more sense.

i got curry as comparable careers/prime to magic and bird which could make him a contender to the back end of my top 10

i have two way peaks who are all timers or even goat level in one end + all nba tier in the other end ( lebron, jordan, kareem, duncan, shaq*, wilt, hakeem) as my best peaks

i have dounts about shaq defense but it seems to have been moderstely strong for his era and i am not in the business of evaluating players by time machining them to the future

russel is the only "one way" peak i would have on that tier because he just was the outlier among outliers in defense in a level thst i am not sure magic or curry reached in offense, the data on him and defensive impact is just absurd even if we dont have mpre granular +/- stuff

then i have the guys who were all timers in one end and average to good in the other, like curry, magic, kobe and bird fighting for the last top 2 spots

i may be underating the likes of oscar, julius and west that i am less knowledgeable on

[Doctor MJ]

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

This is the part that's both the most important and interesting, and also a rock in the boot of much standardized basketball evaluation.

Grand irony:

Because it took from 2014 to 2022 - the time between when Kerr-ball first started kicking ass and the present moment - for the basketball world to stop being skeptical of the approach, the Warriors - 8 years into Kerr's tenure - just got to go through the entire post-season and have the rest of the NBA's top teams look like they had no idea what hit them.

Had a more aggressive copycatting/counter-copycatting arms race ensued like we might have expected to see, it's entirely possible that the Warriors would be less effective in the NBA than they are today.

Even now, with Curry in his mid-30s, it's possible that the rest of the NBA will conclude that the Warriors' can't hang on for that much longer and that it would be a mistake to try to adjust everything to beat them...which would of course be a recipe for the Warriors to keep this up longer before tactical equilibrium is reached.

Of course, we might also get that move back to equilibrium next season. This shining moment may be the last, but whether it is or it is not, this "no one really tries to play like the champs" thing is interesting.

[parsnips33]

How rare is it for a team to go from missing the playoffs one year to championship the next with not major talent acquisitions? I know 20 Lakers and 08 Celtics did it, but obviously they added stars

[kayess]

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

This is the part that's both the most important and interesting, and also a rock in the boot of much standardized basketball evaluation.

Grand irony:

Because it took from 2014 to 2022 - the time between when Kerr-ball first started kicking ass and the present moment - for the basketball world to stop being skeptical of the approach, the Warriors - 8 years into Kerr's tenure - just got to go through the entire post-season and have the rest of the NBA's top teams look like they had no idea what hit them.

Had a more aggressive copycatting/counter-copycatting arms race ensued like we might have expected to see, it's entirely possible that the Warriors would be less effective in the NBA than they are today.

Even now, with Curry in his mid-30s, it's possible that the rest of the NBA will conclude that the Warriors' can't hang on for that much longer and that it would be a mistake to try to adjust everything to beat them...which would of course be a recipe for the Warriors to keep this up longer before tactical equilibrium is reached.

Of course, we might also get that move back to equilibrium next season. This shining moment may be the last, but whether it is or it is not, this "no one really tries to play like the champs" thing is interesting.

I just think for all the preaching we do about not judging based on results - we're overcomplicating this and exacerbating the Warriors halo effect.

How do you copy the Warriors? Simply draft the 2 greatest shooters ever, and the perfect complement to them who literally fits next to any ball-dominant superstar ever. Then, time that with a salary cap increase that allows you to keep all 3 while still surrounding them with great, top-tier role players. Nobody's trying to copy the Warriors because you can't.

Countering them is also again, pretty hard, because it's just so hard to compete with the sheer level of talent they have. The Celtics came pretty close with what I'd say is "reasonable" luck, and even then - it took an all-time BAD trade to get them the draft picks there, and drafted some absolute studs like Timelord (whose injury definitely cast a shadow over this series). They fought valiantly, and whatever combination of fatigue/deer-in-headlights/etc. you ascribe it to, you can't deny the talent difference (and the god-awful **** decision to go UNDER PNR SCREENS AGAINST STEPH 10 **** TIMES A GAME) was mostly the difference, strategy be damned. You give them equal talent (say, idk, Jaylen Brown to a middle class man's LeBron, and Timelord to 100% Timelord, and Tatum to not suck on O), and it's a bit more even.

The notion of Kerr-ball is kind of ridiculous to me. Yes, not anybody could've taken the Warriors to the promised land; and yes, Mark Jackson is a hack. There's a an in-between here. He's a great coach, but let's not kid ourselves about what's truly driving the success of the Warriors here. He basically lost them a couple of games by resting Curry when he was hot; and the Celtics simply rolled over and died in the critical moment where the series was decided (down the stretch in Game 4), and just pretty much choked after that. He was good-great in this series, but nothing meriting an appellation like Kerr-ball.

[ShotCreator]

For all the praise Curry deserves after this title, I hope I will never hear anything about how underrated he is on RealGM. Right now, we have people ranking him inside top 6 after this one series. I've been hearing how much superior he is than someone like Magic and that Johnson was simply more fortunate team-wise.

My sense is that Curry inspires a wide range of takes, from overrated to underrated, which I suppose you could say about any player discussed here, but the extremes seem more extreme and sometimes driven by emotion. Being a Warriors and Curry fan, I've seen persistent negative takes that appear to be fallout from general Warriors dislike and the whole KD thing.

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

To me, there's no justification for having him in the top six, which is essentially the GOAT tier. I can see a discussion about inside the top 15, and I see this title opening daylight between him and Chris Paul and Durant. Those are the kinds of discussions that make more sense.

Question, what season did the daylight between Stephen Curry and Chris Paul first occur?

[Doctor MJ]

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

This is the part that's both the most important and interesting, and also a rock in the boot of much standardized basketball evaluation.

Grand irony:

Because it took from 2014 to 2022 - the time between when Kerr-ball first started kicking ass and the present moment - for the basketball world to stop being skeptical of the approach, the Warriors - 8 years into Kerr's tenure - just got to go through the entire post-season and have the rest of the NBA's top teams look like they had no idea what hit them.

Had a more aggressive copycatting/counter-copycatting arms race ensued like we might have expected to see, it's entirely possible that the Warriors would be less effective in the NBA than they are today.

Even now, with Curry in his mid-30s, it's possible that the rest of the NBA will conclude that the Warriors' can't hang on for that much longer and that it would be a mistake to try to adjust everything to beat them...which would of course be a recipe for the Warriors to keep this up longer before tactical equilibrium is reached.

Of course, we might also get that move back to equilibrium next season. This shining moment may be the last, but whether it is or it is not, this "no one really tries to play like the champs" thing is interesting.

I just think for all the preaching we do about not judging based on results - we're overcomplicating this and exacerbating the Warriors halo effect.

How do you copy the Warriors? Simply draft the 2 greatest shooters ever, and the perfect complement to them who literally fits next to any ball-dominant superstar ever. Then, time that with a salary cap increase that allows you to keep all 3 while still surrounding them with great, top-tier role players. Nobody's trying to copy the Warriors because you can't.

Countering them is also again, pretty hard, because it's just so hard to compete with the sheer level of talent they have. The Celtics came pretty close with what I'd say is "reasonable" luck, and even then - it took an all-time BAD trade to get them the draft picks there, and drafted some absolute studs like Timelord (whose injury definitely cast a shadow over this series). They fought valiantly, and whatever combination of fatigue/deer-in-headlights/etc. you ascribe it to, you can't deny the talent difference (and the god-awful **** decision to go UNDER PNR SCREENS AGAINST STEPH 10 **** TIMES A GAME) was mostly the difference, strategy be damned. You give them equal talent (say, idk, Jaylen Brown to a middle class man's LeBron, and Timelord to 100% Timelord, and Tatum to not suck on O), and it's a bit more even.

The notion of Kerr-ball is kind of ridiculous to me. Yes, not anybody could've taken the Warriors to the promised land; and yes, Mark Jackson is a hack. There's a an in-between here. He's a great coach, but let's not kid ourselves about what's truly driving the success of the Warriors here. He basically lost them a couple of games by resting Curry when he was hot; and the Celtics simply rolled over and died in the critical moment where the series was decided (down the stretch in Game 4), and just pretty much choked after that. He was good-great in this series, but nothing meriting an appellation like Kerr-ball.

Hold on - "countering" to me is an adaptive strategy/tactic, it's not a result.

It's been regularly talked about for years that teams feel a shock when they first encounter the Warriors because of how they play more so than how good they play. Hence, whether you personally think Kerr's approach has real value add beyond the talent he has at his disposal, isn't really relevant to my point.

The fact of the matter is that none of the other teams the Warriors played this year seemed as well built and prepared to play them as the teams they used to play in the playoffs, and that's pretty remarkable considering how effective their style of play had been previously.

To me that's saying that the NBA in general, like you, have convinced themselves that there's nothing more to be copycatted about their success, because their talent is just to anomalous to be expected to learn anything from it. It also probably discourages adversarial innovation beyond the best ideas of the 2010s.

Honestly, to me this is a situation where the sooner the rest of the NBA takes seriously the how of the Warriors as something to steal as much as possible from, the sooner they'll age out. It seems comical to try to build your team's next 5 years thinking terribly seriously about a team whose best player is already 34 years old, but if the rest of the league isn't careful, the Warriors could keep this playoff success up for a while.

[Doctor MJ]

How rare is it for a team to go from missing the playoffs one year to championship the next with not major talent acquisitions? I know 20 Lakers and 08 Celtics did it, but obviously they added stars

It's a really great point that I don't think folks are likely to end up processing.

With all the narrative firepower of "the core healthy again and they win", the reality is that the stark improvement clearly came before Klay returned. So yeah, this really is basically the same '20-21 core going from missing the playoffs to looking like a likely champion from the jump of the next season.

That is remarkable.

[Outside]

How rare is it for a team to go from missing the playoffs one year to championship the next with not major talent acquisitions? I know 20 Lakers and 08 Celtics did it, but obviously they added stars

The Spurs went from third-worst record (20-62) to a title in two years, but that bad year was with Robinson out and just prior to adding Duncan. Essentially, they added both Robinson and Duncan after that low point.

I'd argue that the Warriors situation was similar. Their low point was a season that Curry played five games and Klay none, so since then, they "added" both. They also upgraded from DLo to Wiggins during that year.

[Outside]

For all the praise Curry deserves after this title, I hope I will never hear anything about how underrated he is on RealGM. Right now, we have people ranking him inside top 6 after this one series. I've been hearing how much superior he is than someone like Magic and that Johnson was simply more fortunate team-wise.

My sense is that Curry inspires a wide range of takes, from overrated to underrated, which I suppose you could say about any player discussed here, but the extremes seem more extreme and sometimes driven by emotion. Being a Warriors and Curry fan, I've seen persistent negative takes that appear to be fallout from general Warriors dislike and the whole KD thing.

Another aspect is that Curry's value comes disproportionately from off-ball impact and gravity compared to other players, which makes him difficult to assess since those qualities are nebulous compared to box score stats. That leads to wide swings in where he is ranked based on how much credit you give for those qualities.

To me, there's no justification for having him in the top six, which is essentially the GOAT tier. I can see a discussion about inside the top 15, and I see this title opening daylight between him and Chris Paul and Durant. Those are the kinds of discussions that make more sense.

Question, what season did the daylight between Stephen Curry and Chris Paul first occur?

For me, it was 2015-16, but IIRC, Chris Paul was one spot ahead of Curry in the most recent top 100 project, so my opinion was still an outlier. I would expect Curry to be above Paul in the next top 100.

EDIT: I looked it up. In the 2020 top 100, Durant was 22nd, Paul was 23rd, and Curry was 24th. He should leapfrog them both in the 2023 project.

[itsxtray]

How rare is it for a team to go from missing the playoffs one year to championship the next with not major talent acquisitions? I know 20 Lakers and 08 Celtics did it, but obviously they added stars

It's a really great point that I don't think folks are likely to end up processing.

With all the narrative firepower of "the core healthy again and they win", the reality is that the stark improvement clearly came before Klay returned. So yeah, this really is basically the same '20-21 core going from missing the playoffs to looking like a likely champion from the jump of the next season.

That is remarkable.

They just cut all the trash loose, they weren't as bad as 20-21 made them look. Playing Wiseman and Oubre etc... was an anchor around the team. I think Wiseman was the first player to ever be a negative on the court with Steph since he made the leap to stardom. Some stuff from that season and the beginning of this season that i recall:

Wiseman being utter trash:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mkv0u5/the_2021_warriors_are_the_worst_team_in_the_nba/

Cutting the trash loose:

Read on Twitter

[Homer38]

The warriors were one of the best team in the last 19 games last year before the play in with a 14-5 record.I think it was when Wiseman and Oubre were out at this point

[Homer38]

How rare is it for a team to go from missing the playoffs one year to championship the next with not major talent acquisitions? I know 20 Lakers and 08 Celtics did it, but obviously they added stars

It's a really great point that I don't think folks are likely to end up processing.

With all the narrative firepower of "the core healthy again and they win", the reality is that the stark improvement clearly came before Klay returned. So yeah, this really is basically the same '20-21 core going from missing the playoffs to looking like a likely champion from the jump of the next season.

That is remarkable.

They just cut all the trash loose, they weren't as bad as 20-21 made them look. Playing Wiseman and Oubre etc... was an anchor around the team. I think Wiseman was the first player to ever be a negative on the court with Steph since he made the leap to stardom. Some stuff from that season and the beginning of this season that i recall:

Wiseman being utter trash:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mkv0u5/the_2021_warriors_are_the_worst_team_in_the_nba/

Cutting the trash loose:

Read on Twitter

à

This is a great point!

[parsnips33]

How rare is it for a team to go from missing the playoffs one year to championship the next with not major talent acquisitions? I know 20 Lakers and 08 Celtics did it, but obviously they added stars

It's a really great point that I don't think folks are likely to end up processing.

With all the narrative firepower of "the core healthy again and they win", the reality is that the stark improvement clearly came before Klay returned. So yeah, this really is basically the same '20-21 core going from missing the playoffs to looking like a likely champion from the jump of the next season.

That is remarkable.

They just cut all the trash loose, they weren't as bad as 20-21 made them look. Playing Wiseman and Oubre etc... was an anchor around the team. I think Wiseman was the first player to ever be a negative on the court with Steph since he made the leap to stardom. Some stuff from that season and the beginning of this season that i recall:

Wiseman being utter trash:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mkv0u5/the_2021_warriors_are_the_worst_team_in_the_nba/

Cutting the trash loose:

Read on Twitter

Do you think Warriors could have had a long playoff run if they had won one of the play in games last season?

[itsxtray]

It's a really great point that I don't think folks are likely to end up processing.

With all the narrative firepower of "the core healthy again and they win", the reality is that the stark improvement clearly came before Klay returned. So yeah, this really is basically the same '20-21 core going from missing the playoffs to looking like a likely champion from the jump of the next season.

That is remarkable.

They just cut all the trash loose, they weren't as bad as 20-21 made them look. Playing Wiseman and Oubre etc... was an anchor around the team. I think Wiseman was the first player to ever be a negative on the court with Steph since he made the leap to stardom. Some stuff from that season and the beginning of this season that i recall:

Wiseman being utter trash:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mkv0u5/the_2021_warriors_are_the_worst_team_in_the_nba/

Cutting the trash loose:

Read on Twitter

Do you think Warriors could have had a long playoff run if they had won one of the play in games last season?

Idk about long because their depth got way better this year with free agents, improvements, and Klay's return but the play-in is single elimination, if it was a series id have taken those warriors over those grizz. I also think they could've beaten the Jazz but the Clippers probably still would have won because of depth.

Last season the warriors only reliable players in a playoff situation would have been: Steph, Wiggs, Dray, & Looney, basically no depth. This playoffs it was: Steph, Klay, Wiggs, Dray, Looney, Poole, Opj, & GP2. Thats a solid 8 man rotation with versatile lineups which they didn't have in 21 so i say they get to the second round and lose to the Clips.

[parsnips33]

They just cut all the trash loose, they weren't as bad as 20-21 made them look. Playing Wiseman and Oubre etc... was an anchor around the team. I think Wiseman was the first player to ever be a negative on the court with Steph since he made the leap to stardom. Some stuff from that season and the beginning of this season that i recall:

Wiseman being utter trash:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mkv0u5/the_2021_warriors_are_the_worst_team_in_the_nba/

Cutting the trash loose:

Read on Twitter

Do you think Warriors could have had a long playoff run if they had won one of the play in games last season?

Idk about long because their depth got way better this year with free agents, improvements, and Klay's return but the play-in is single elimination, if it was a series id have taken those warriors over those grizz. I also think they could've beaten the Jazz but the Clippers probably still would have won because of depth.

Last season the warriors only reliable players in a playoff situation would have been: Steph, Wiggs, Dray, & Looney, basically no depth. This playoffs it was: Steph, Klay, Wiggs, Dray, Looney, Poole, Opj, & GP2. Thats a solid 8 man rotation with versatile lineups which they didn't have in 21 so i say they get to the second round and lose to the Clips.

Pretty much my thoughts. They could have won a series but would likely run out of steam