'17-'18 POY discussion

[Doctor MJ]

Thoughts on the first weekend:

Philadelphia just keeps destroying everyone. A young team like this could be fatally vulnerable to a single strategy shift, but at this point I'd have to say Philly is a threat to come out of the East.

Indiana-Cleveland just got a hell of a lot more interesting. I'd still bet on Cleveland, but Oladipo sure looks legit doesn't he?

Stevens' boys doing great given their injuries, but we know they aren't a threat to get too far right?

I'm I overly cynical if I feel like the same is likely true of Toronto?

Over in the West, I'm disturbed that Houston is struggling this much in their 1/8 match. I know the 8th seed is better than an 8th seed with Butler there, but Houston has to be more effective than that if they want a title.

If Curry gets healthy, hard to bet against GS.

I feel like Portland has really sold itself on fool's gold. The #3 seed this year makes it seem like they took a leap forward, but they didn't win 50 games. I really wonder how long they can keep up that positive culture once they really see how far away they still are.

If OKC can just have George hitting shots like that all playoffs long...

[Dr Spaceman]

Over in the West, I'm disturbed that Houston is struggling this much in their 1/8 match. I know the 8th seed is better than an 8th seed with Butler there, but Houston has to be more effective than that if they want a title.

Wow, really? I had the opposite impression.

For me Houston was clearly the better team all night and the final score only looked close because of some late game weirdness, especially that bizarre brain aneurism Paul had in the final minute. Houston was on its way to a comfortable victory and Harden looked completely unstoppable even when guarded by Butler.

They just missed a bunch of shots that are normally easy for them. If I were to criticize Houston, it would be their strategy of jacking up 40 3s in general, because on nights like this they can go seriously cold.

Anyway to me the best indication of how Houston is playing is Capela, because when he scores it means the offense is generating the looks they want. Capela finished with more than 20. I think Houston was good tonight.

[Doctor MJ]

Over in the West, I'm disturbed that Houston is struggling this much in their 1/8 match. I know the 8th seed is better than an 8th seed with Butler there, but Houston has to be more effective than that if they want a title.

Wow, really? I had the opposite impression.

For me Houston was clearly the better team all night and the final score only looked close because of some late game weirdness, especially that bizarre brain aneurism Paul had in the final minute. Houston was on its way to a comfortable victory and Harden looked completely unstoppable even when guarded by Butler.

They just missed a bunch of shots that are normally easy for them. If I were to criticize Houston, it would be their strategy of jacking up 40 3s in general, because on nights like this they can go seriously cold.

Anyway to me the best indication of how Houston is playing is Capela, because when he scores it means the offense is generating the looks they want. Capela finished with more than 20. I think Houston was good tonight.

Game was close for the bulk of the 2nd half and Houston was never able to permanently pull away.
That's not where Houston wants to be.

I agree with you that we can point to specific reasons why Houston can play better going forward, but given that Houston has so much to prove, I was hoping to see them dominate from the opening bell.

[Dr Spaceman]

Over in the West, I'm disturbed that Houston is struggling this much in their 1/8 match. I know the 8th seed is better than an 8th seed with Butler there, but Houston has to be more effective than that if they want a title.

Wow, really? I had the opposite impression.

For me Houston was clearly the better team all night and the final score only looked close because of some late game weirdness, especially that bizarre brain aneurism Paul had in the final minute. Houston was on its way to a comfortable victory and Harden looked completely unstoppable even when guarded by Butler.

They just missed a bunch of shots that are normally easy for them. If I were to criticize Houston, it would be their strategy of jacking up 40 3s in general, because on nights like this they can go seriously cold.

Anyway to me the best indication of how Houston is playing is Capela, because when he scores it means the offense is generating the looks they want. Capela finished with more than 20. I think Houston was good tonight.

Game was close for the bulk of the 2nd half and Houston was never able to permanently pull away.
That's not where Houston wants to be.

I agree with you that we can point to specific reasons why Houston can play better going forward, but given that Houston has so much to prove, I was hoping to see them dominate from the opening bell.

That’s a fair way to look at things.

For me, especially for one game, I just try to think in terms of process over results. Ultimately what I want Houston to prove that their offense works as well in the postseason as it did in the RS, and to me it clearly did. If Houston shoots their season average on 3s it’s a 20 Point blowout. Hell if they make 2 more threes (which puts them 5% below their average) it’s a double digit win. I don’t think those missed 3s were a result of them not being open. Aometimes a team just doesn’t have a rhythm.

Also I think we can be pretty confident Paul won’t match probably the worst performance he’s had in his entire playoff career.

[Krodis]

Yeah, while the Rockets didn't play well, it can largely be attributed to a bad shooting night and Paul having an uncharacteristically terrible game. The offense wasn't really hindered, as the Wolves were pretty helpless against the Harden/Capela pick and roll, the Rockets just missed shots.

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[Jurassic_Park]

Harden increasing the gap between the #1 and #2. Unbelievable game from him yesterday with Jimmy on him.

[Clyde Frazier]

While i’ve seen it mentioned here and there, I don’t think it’s been talked about enough: the late season belinelli and ilyasova acquisitions have been huge for philly. Belinelli specifically allows you to give redick breathers when necessary and keep the game plan intact. If you have them both on the floor they’re serious threats from just about anywhere, opening things up for simmons even more. Ilyasova gives them more versatility based on matchups and is just playing really well right now.

[dhsilv2]

Stevens' boys doing great given their injuries, but we know they aren't a threat to get too far right?

Thinking out loud, but Stevens gives me 2 views. 1 he's the best coach maybe in basketball right now so if they play young teams can he out game plan and beat young but better teams? 2 in the playoffs you have time to figure things out so worse coaches get an edge so that could negate this?

I dunno the answer, but boston worries me against philly because of stevens defensive planning....mind you worries is more because I want lebron vs simmons in the conference finals.

[dhsilv2]

Over in the West, I'm disturbed that Houston is struggling this much in their 1/8 match. I know the 8th seed is better than an 8th seed with Butler there, but Houston has to be more effective than that if they want a title.

Wow, really? I had the opposite impression.

For me Houston was clearly the better team all night and the final score only looked close because of some late game weirdness, especially that bizarre brain aneurism Paul had in the final minute. Houston was on its way to a comfortable victory and Harden looked completely unstoppable even when guarded by Butler.

They just missed a bunch of shots that are normally easy for them. If I were to criticize Houston, it would be their strategy of jacking up 40 3s in general, because on nights like this they can go seriously cold.

Anyway to me the best indication of how Houston is playing is Capela, because when he scores it means the offense is generating the looks they want. Capela finished with more than 20. I think Houston was good tonight.

The non harden guys are NOT going 3-25 again in this series from 3.

[bondom34]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I still don't know what I feel like in the Jazz/Thunder series but even if George isn't quite as good neither Westbrook nor Adams were terribly good. On the other hand Utah's supporting cast was shaky as well but Mitchell shooting 50 percent feels unlikely.

Portland and NOLA was the one where I thought an upset may happen and Davis being the best player in the series is huge for.them. Portland needs both guards to be at their absolute best.

[Doctor MJ]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I suppose I find it just a little dangerous to say "Well Houston's guys will clearly play better while KAT can't". Neither team was firing on all cylinders, and despite not firing on all cylinders, the #8 seed fought the #1 seed hard.

Do I think Minny can win the series? Not really. I just wonder if Houston can really win the title if they can't annihilate non-contenders when those non-contenders aren't even at their best.

[K_chile22]

Over in the West, I'm disturbed that Houston is struggling this much in their 1/8 match. I know the 8th seed is better than an 8th seed with Butler there, but Houston has to be more effective than that if they want a title.

Wow, really? I had the opposite impression.

For me Houston was clearly the better team all night and the final score only looked close because of some late game weirdness, especially that bizarre brain aneurism Paul had in the final minute. Houston was on its way to a comfortable victory and Harden looked completely unstoppable even when guarded by Butler.

They just missed a bunch of shots that are normally easy for them. If I were to criticize Houston, it would be their strategy of jacking up 40 3s in general, because on nights like this they can go seriously cold.

Anyway to me the best indication of how Houston is playing is Capela, because when he scores it means the offense is generating the looks they want. Capela finished with more than 20. I think Houston was good tonight.

The non harden guys are NOT going 3-25 again in this series from 3.

Rockets shot 2-16 on wide open 3s last night. 12.5%! impressively bad shot making and they still put up a 112 off rating with CP3 playing really poorly

[bondom34]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I suppose I find it just a little dangerous to say "Well Houston's guys will clearly play better while KAT can't". Neither team was firing on all cylinders, and despite not firing on all cylinders, the #8 seed fought the #1 seed hard.

Do I think Minny can win the series? Not really. I just wonder if Houston can really win the title if they can't annihilate non-contenders when those non-contenders aren't even at their best.

That's fair. I just expect more from the totality of Houston than a bit extra from Towns. Its just 1st run at it and Capela can bully him some.

[RSCD3_]

While i’ve seen it mentioned here and there, I don’t think it’s been talked about enough: the late season belinelli and ilyasova acquisitions have been huge for philly. Belinelli specifically allows you to give redick breathers when necessary and keep the game plan intact. If you have them both on the floor they’re serious threats from just about anywhere, opening things up for simmons even more. Ilyasova gives them more versatility based on matchups and is just playing really well right now.

Yeah there are some people who are worried that embiid will make them worse when he comes back because they've been rolling without him but I myself cant see that, does anyone here feel that way?

[Mystical Apples]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I still don't know what I feel like in the Jazz/Thunder series but even if George isn't quite as good neither Westbrook nor Adams were terribly good. On the other hand Utah's supporting cast was shaky as well but Mitchell shooting 50 percent feels unlikely.

Portland and NOLA was the one where I thought an upset may happen and Davis being the best player in the series is huge for.them. Portland needs both guards to be at their absolute best.

I agree it's partially on KAT but would add primarily on clock/help recognition of Teague and Rose. Too many times they hung bigs out to dry resulting in tough possessions or an immediate Houston runout. By hanging out on the perimeter KAT at least gave 1v1 room without help from Capela and somewhat mitigated Houston pounding transition mismatches.

Anyways not sure any of it matters. Optimizing KAT requires entering early offense and another knock down shooter on the floor (or several).

[RSCD3_]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I suppose I find it just a little dangerous to say "Well Houston's guys will clearly play better while KAT can't". Neither team was firing on all cylinders, and despite not firing on all cylinders, the #8 seed fought the #1 seed hard.

Do I think Minny can win the series? Not really. I just wonder if Houston can really win the title if they can't annihilate non-contenders when those non-contenders aren't even at their best.

They weren't the 8th seed when butler played they were 37-22, which is 51 wins and would have given them the clear 3rd place in this wild wild west. It seems more you're looking for evidence of them not being built to win then considering the factors.

Minus Harden they shot 3-24 and were up 8 with less than 3 minutes left to play. Then to get closer paul made 2 bonehead turnovers but even then the only chance minnesota had was at the end. This strikes me a lot more of a control game than others and I think we'll see a few blowouts soon anyways

[Dr Spaceman]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I suppose I find it just a little dangerous to say "Well Houston's guys will clearly play better while KAT can't". Neither team was firing on all cylinders, and despite not firing on all cylinders, the #8 seed fought the #1 seed hard.

Do I think Minny can win the series? Not really. I just wonder if Houston can really win the title if they can't annihilate non-contenders when those non-contenders aren't even at their best.

I can’t speak for everyone, but I’m actually not at all saying Houston’s guys will play better (well maybe other than Paul). All I’m saying is they’re going to hit the exact same looks they missed in this game, because they’ve done it all season and their whole careers.

On the other hand, Towns killing the Rockets would mean a big change either in his aggressiveness or the approach of his team, which seems like a higher barrier to entry than just replicating what you’ve done all season.

[dhsilv2]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I still don't know what I feel like in the Jazz/Thunder series but even if George isn't quite as good neither Westbrook nor Adams were terribly good. On the other hand Utah's supporting cast was shaky as well but Mitchell shooting 50 percent feels unlikely.

Portland and NOLA was the one where I thought an upset may happen and Davis being the best player in the series is huge for.them. Portland needs both guards to be at their absolute best.

I agree it's partially on KAT but would add primarily on clock/help recognition of Teague and Rose. Too many times they hung bigs out to dry resulting in tough possessions or an immediate Houston runout. By hanging out on the perimeter KAT at least gave 1v1 room without help from Capela and somewhat mitigated Houston pounding transition mismatches.

Anyways not sure any of it matters. Optimizing KAT requires entering early offense and another knock down shooter on the floor (or several).

Wasn't this an issue with KAT before Butler went down? With butler on the floor they just go to him less. This isn't new.

[Mystical Apples]

Yeah that mostly felt to me like a game Minnesota needed to take if they were gonna steal one. Harden and Capela just killed them and KAT went missing.

I still don't know what I feel like in the Jazz/Thunder series but even if George isn't quite as good neither Westbrook nor Adams were terribly good. On the other hand Utah's supporting cast was shaky as well but Mitchell shooting 50 percent feels unlikely.

Portland and NOLA was the one where I thought an upset may happen and Davis being the best player in the series is huge for.them. Portland needs both guards to be at their absolute best.

I agree it's partially on KAT but would add primarily on clock/help recognition of Teague and Rose. Too many times they hung bigs out to dry resulting in tough possessions or an immediate Houston runout. By hanging out on the perimeter KAT at least gave 1v1 room without help from Capela and somewhat mitigated Houston pounding transition mismatches.

Anyways not sure any of it matters. Optimizing KAT requires entering early offense and another knock down shooter on the floor (or several).

Wasn't this an issue with KAT before Butler went down? With butler on the floor they just go to him less. This isn't new.

Sure but why? Redlining it to Butler doesn't explain why it's happening.

[Clyde Frazier]

While i’ve seen it mentioned here and there, I don’t think it’s been talked about enough: the late season belinelli and ilyasova acquisitions have been huge for philly. Belinelli specifically allows you to give redick breathers when necessary and keep the game plan intact. If you have them both on the floor they’re serious threats from just about anywhere, opening things up for simmons even more. Ilyasova gives them more versatility based on matchups and is just playing really well right now.

Yeah there are some people who are worried that embiid will make them worse when he comes back because they've been rolling without him but I myself cant see that, does anyone here feel that way?

Nah that’s really pushing it. Embiid’s too good and hasn’t really been out *that* long. If they’re finding a way to exploit miami in that series where embiid isn’t as much of a factor, just limit his minutes.