2017 Golden State Warriors Thread

[Krodis]

This is a pretty shocking collapse for Golden State. Curry and Thompson have to start hitting their shots or they might not even make it far enough to get Durant back. A first round series vs Memphis isn't exactly a picnic. And they really don't want a long first round series given the meat grinder that is the West.

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[RSCD3_]

NBAWOWY for Steph and KD

Normal 116.2 ORTG / 105.4 DRTG

Steph 121.8 ORTG / 105.3 DRTG
Without Steph 103.6 ORTG / 105.6 DRTG

Durant 121.1 ORTG / 105.8 DRTG
Without Durant 108.4 ORTG / 104.7 DRTG

Steph On KD Off 116.0 ORTG / 105.5 DRTG
KD on Steph Off 109.9 ORTG / 108.0 DRTG

With Both 124.7 ORTG / 105.5 DRTG
Without Both 100.5 ORTG / 103.3 DRTG

[SideshowBob]

Spoiler:

GSW's big 3 of Klay/Dray/Curry are 3 of the top 4 in on court Net Rating this season (along with Patterson) at +16.3, +15.9, and +15.0. Last season those 3 were the top 3 among players with at least 1000 MP.

Noticeably, Dray and Steph are down 3 and 2 points respectively, but Klay is up a point and leading the league. Iggy is among the top ten again and GSW's performance with him on court is virtually identical.

GSW with Durant on the floor has been a +13.8 team, which is 2.1 pts/100 better than OKC was last year with him on the floor.

The 2017 Cavaliers, despite being a team 4.5 SRS points weaker than GS (and GS will go higher, IMO), are nearly matching the Warrior's starters performance with Lebron on the floor (+14.5).

Ross/Patterson/Lowry are all among the top 11, but Derozan lags behind, with clear separation from that group at +7.0.

Golden State's new death lineup (Green/Iggy/Durant/Klay/Curry) so far has not performed up to the standard of 2016, instead performing at about the level of the 2015 one (w/Barnes).

2015: 116.1 ORTG, 92.9 DRTG, +23.3 Net
2016: 143.3 ORTG, 99.0 DRTG, +44.3 Net
2017: 125.5 ORTG, 98.3 DRTG, +27.2 Net

Obviously, most of the season has yet to be played, however I do not believe they will touch last year's heights. Through 32 games, replacing Barnes with Durant in this lineup has not produced better performance. Logically, the conclusion must be one or a combination of the following:

Durant does not (yet) fit ideally with this lineup to the degree that Barnes did
One or more than one of Curry/Dray/Klay/Iggy has declined
Durant has declined to the point of being worse than Barnes
The SBDS this season has faced significantly stronger defenses than they did last year

First point seems fair to me this early in the season. Things don't click instantly and its not like the results have been poor by any measure.

Second point is also fair; its easy to point at Iggy but I also feel like I am observing a Curry regression (he has not been the same kind of threat off the dribble that he was last season).

Third point is most obviously untrue - Durant has looked fantastic.

Fourth point is highly unlikely. I could check to see the defensive SOS of the 16 and 17 teams, but I doubt I'd find anything to of significance support the notion that 17 has faced tougher opponents on that end.

-----

Also, on a separate but related note, GS is now the league's best defensive team. However, they are only a -4.5, weaker than the 16 Hawks (-5.0) and 16 Spurs (-7.4).

SBDS

2015: 116.1 ORTG, 92.9 DRTG, +23.3 Net
2016: 143.3 ORTG, 99.0 DRTG, +44.3 Net
2017: 125.5 ORTG, 98.3 DRTG, +27.2 Net (Dec 28, 2016)

Updated 2017 Numbers:

2017: 125.9 ORTG, 102.3 DRTG, +23.7 Net

The ceiling of this team's SRS has been raised by Durant, because they can more ideally stagger lineups with a superstar player. But I don't think we've seen enough to say that their top end is higher than last year.

[bondom34]

Didn't know where to put this exactly but lol Okafor.

Read on Twitter

[clyde21]

NBAWOWY for Steph and KD

Normal 116.2 ORTG / 105.4 DRTG

Steph 121.8 ORTG / 105.3 DRTG
Without Steph 103.6 ORTG / 105.6 DRTG

Durant 121.1 ORTG / 105.8 DRTG
Without Durant 108.4 ORTG / 104.7 DRTG

Steph On KD Off 116.0 ORTG / 105.5 DRTG
KD on Steph Off 109.9 ORTG / 108.0 DRTG

With Both 124.7 ORTG / 105.5 DRTG
Without Both 100.5 ORTG / 103.3 DRTG

Our team as a whole functions infinitely better with Curry on the floors. Biggest discrepancy than any other play when he's on the floor vs. off. He hasn't been shooting up to par lately but the impact is still there in terms of spacing and movement.

Hopefully he progresses back to his shooting mean when the playoffs start. Kerr just needs to put him in more PNR situations a little bit sooner in games. Maybe the 4th quarter last night was a wake up call.

[JulesWinnfield]

"Is this malaise of theirs about not feeling motivated, not thinking they have something to play for," said Strauss. "Is it just being tired? There's one guy in particular on the team that keeps saying the same thing to me, and I can't say who he is, but he keeps saying 'We've got problems and it ain't basketball.'"

[PaulieWal]

"Is this malaise of theirs about not feeling motivated, not thinking they have something to play for," said Strauss. "Is it just being tired? There's one guy in particular on the team that keeps saying the same thing to me, and I can't say who he is, but he keeps saying 'We've got problems and it ain't basketball.'"

Meh....Strauss is kind of a drama King. He was even saying in 2015 that the team had internal chemistry problems. Maybe I am just jaded from tons of similar articles and "concern analysis" during the Big 3 era where ultimately once the playoffs started that team had a shot at winning every title save for 2014. Even if there is internal drama....who cares? KD, Curry, Green, and Klay all healthy is just too damn much to deal with. If all are healthy I don't see how they don't win the title.

[JulesWinnfield]

"The Luke Walton question is an interesting one. I think what happened with Luke Walton in some ways speaks to some of the issues this team has where his success undermined Kerr's authority," said Strauss. "They played the best basketball they ever had when Kerr was not coaching the team, when Luke was letting them do a lot of what they really wanted and Draymond (Green) was essentially player-coach and that has ratcheted up the tension, I believe, between those two figures. And so it's so hard to say. Is it because they miss Luke Walton? Or Luke Walton's presence on the team and the success that came with it came to haunt them in some way."

This is interesting, and a dynamic i hadn't seen given much thought to. It also perhaps sheds a different light on the igoudala comments as it relates to Kerr. (We do what massa say) It could be the team is frustrated with Kerr taking too much of a hands on approach.

I don't think any of this makes them incapable of winning a title if healthy, but I guess it's an added obstacle. We have seen interior drama have an impact on teams in the past

[rich316]

"Is this malaise of theirs about not feeling motivated, not thinking they have something to play for," said Strauss. "Is it just being tired? There's one guy in particular on the team that keeps saying the same thing to me, and I can't say who he is, but he keeps saying 'We've got problems and it ain't basketball.'"

Pretty easy to figure out really. Dray is a very charismatic guy who think's he's god's gift, and he's turned some in the locker room against Kerr - obviously Iggy for one, probably others as well. Players who aren't into the power struggle are checked out - Curry strikes me as one to check out if he were surrounded by childishness. Everything will be gucci if they right the ship, but it will be interesting to see what happens if they don't win the title. Management may have to choose between Draymond and Kerr, and we know who always wins those battles...

[JulesWinnfield]

"Is this malaise of theirs about not feeling motivated, not thinking they have something to play for," said Strauss. "Is it just being tired? There's one guy in particular on the team that keeps saying the same thing to me, and I can't say who he is, but he keeps saying 'We've got problems and it ain't basketball.'"

Pretty easy to figure out really. Dray is a very charismatic guy who think's he's god's gift, and he's turned some in the locker room against Kerr - obviously Iggy for one, probably others as well. Players who aren't into the power struggle are checked out - Curry strikes me as one to check out if he were surrounded by childishness. Everything will be gucci if they right the ship, but it will be interesting to see what happens if they don't win the title. Management may have to choose between Draymond and Kerr, and we know who always wins those battles...

That's pretty much how I see this as well.

[DoubleO8]

"Is this malaise of theirs about not feeling motivated, not thinking they have something to play for," said Strauss. "Is it just being tired? There's one guy in particular on the team that keeps saying the same thing to me, and I can't say who he is, but he keeps saying 'We've got problems and it ain't basketball.'"

I'm not shocked I believe all of the expectations thrust apon them may have affected them. Besides Draymond I'm not sure about the true confidence from the top dogs on this team.
I also thought Igoudalas comments were a sign of something going wrong over there.

[JulesWinnfield]

Also it's interesting given how rarely you ever hear pro athletes reference slavery even tangentially that you have two guys on this team doing it basically within a month or so of eachother (Draymond talking about Dolans slave mentality, and igoudala the other day). It's not hard to see at minimum that Draymond and Igoudala have their little click on the team, and that click isn't a big fan of Kerr.

[PaulieWal]

Also it's interesting given how rarely you ever hear pro athletes reference slavery even tangentially that you have two guys on this team doing it basically within a month or so of eachother (Draymond talking about Dolans slave mentality, and igoudala the other day). It's not hard to see at minimum that Draymond and Igoudala have their little click on the team, and that click isn't a big fan of Kerr.

If Draymond and Igoudala think Kerr is some sort of racist with his history and his track record of speaking out politically then they are really dumb.

I do wonder though if the Warriors don't win it all for some reason what "Mr Light Years Ahead Lacob" will do.

[JulesWinnfield]

Also it's interesting given how rarely you ever hear pro athletes reference slavery even tangentially that you have two guys on this team doing it basically within a month or so of eachother (Draymond talking about Dolans slave mentality, and igoudala the other day). It's not hard to see at minimum that Draymond and Igoudala have their little click on the team, and that click isn't a big fan of Kerr.

If Draymond and Igoudala think Kerr is some sort of racist with his history and his track record of speaking out politically then they are really dumb.

I do wonder though if the Warriors don't win it all for some reason what "Mr Light Years Ahead Lacob" will do.

I don't think it's necessarily that they think he's a racist. I think it's that they think he is too hands on and controlling. Igoudala might say like a slave master. That is obviously strong, but those are his words, not mine. The success they had with Walton, who by all accounts empowered them more, probably did undermine some of Kerr's authority. This team is still a monster from a pure talent perspective. So we will see how it plays out. Teams still win amid strife. But it's hard not to see strife here

[The-Power]

Management may have to choose between Draymond and Kerr, and we know who always wins those battles...

If it comes to that I hope it's Kerr. Love Green and without him we're probably worse off than without Kerr - a halfway decent coach provided - but unless there's a good reason for the players to go up against the coach I hate to see players dictating the way. Kerr is a great human being and a smart basketball mind while Green, well, he's not always level-headed to say the least. I'd pick Kerr if I had to even though this means less team success (in the short run at least) considering the limited information we have. But for now I remain calm and believe it's not going to be a big issue in the mid run. Granted, at least between Kerr und Green there's a dynamic that makes me feel uneasy.

[Statlanta]

It all makes sense now. Iggy's comments a few days ago. Steph's slump and routine off-ball play compared to last year. Draymond's comments on Durant's late-game free-lancing. I think the team is at odds with Kerr's system. I think the losing and Kerr's adjustments are taking a toll on the team which can factor to there worst slump in the Kerr era. Maybe the players don't feel they have enough freedom to do what they want to do in the system.

This is all speculation of course.

[JulesWinnfield]

Seriously when Klay gets hot he gets as hot as anyone just about ever. He is off to a start that makes it look like it could be one of those nights

8/9 FG 21 pts in 8 minutes so far

[RSCD3_]

They need to fire kerr and rehire mark jackson if they want to take it to the next level.

[Statlanta]

Yeah, after this game I think they are fine. They are actually having fun doing what they are doing in today's game. I think they needed a relaxed dominant game environment.

[clyde21]

"The Luke Walton question is an interesting one. I think what happened with Luke Walton in some ways speaks to some of the issues this team has where his success undermined Kerr's authority," said Strauss. "They played the best basketball they ever had when Kerr was not coaching the team, when Luke was letting them do a lot of what they really wanted and Draymond (Green) was essentially player-coach and that has ratcheted up the tension, I believe, between those two figures. And so it's so hard to say. Is it because they miss Luke Walton? Or Luke Walton's presence on the team and the success that came with it came to haunt them in some way."

This is interesting, and a dynamic i hadn't seen given much thought to. It also perhaps sheds a different light on the igoudala comments as it relates to Kerr. (We do what massa say) It could be the team is frustrated with Kerr taking too much of a hands on approach.

I don't think any of this makes them incapable of winning a title if healthy, but I guess it's an added obstacle. We have seen interior drama have an impact on teams in the past

Do we know for sure that Iggy was talking about Kerr and not the NBA as a whole in terms of giving them a brutal stretch of scheduling, and then people complaining when they take a rest day?