2010-11 POY Voting Thread - Congrats Dirk Nowitzki!

[Doctor MJ]

Combined PER and WS/48 for regular season and playoffs with playoff minutes weigthed twice as much:

James: 25.9, 0.227
Wade: 25.9, 0.217

If anything they were basically even, James has the slight edge in terms of per possession production. Now we add the fact that James played a LOT of minutes more than Wade, and it becomes not really close.

James: 4.1 RAPM, 6.3 APM (playoffs included for RAPM, regular season value used as prior for APM)
Wade: 3.6 RAPM, 6.0 APM

That's your preferred weighting not mine. As I said, I basically always felt that their regular seasons were close enough that I'd decide largely on playoff performance.

Is it really that strange to you that I prefer Wade's playoff performance to LeBron's?

[mopper8]

My Final Vote:

3. Dwyane Wade

4. LeBron James

I think it makes sense to take these two together. If LeBron ahead of Wade all season, does it really make sense to let one series flip things? More than that, given how LeBron outperformed Wade in the Conference Finals, am I blowing what happened in the actual Finals out of proportion?

While the choice of LeBron over Wade during the regular season, and on the through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs seemed obvious to me, it was by no means a big lead. LeBron was slightly more productive, which is part of why I gave him the nod, but neither player was putting up as impressive numbers as last year. Bottom line is that the team could have focused more on Wade getting his and I don’t think it would have hurt them. My feeling all season long was that the higher ranked of the 2 would be based on what happened when they actually had to fight for their lives. Obviously, that’s where Wade shined, and LeBron disappointed. Hence my decision.

I think the bold is the key bit there. If you agree, then the difference in productivity doesn't seem as significant. If you disagree, then obviously that's a big deal because there's no denying that Lebron was more productive.

I'd go so far as to argue that Miami would've been better if Lebron was less productive because of decreased usage, but those touches going to Miami role players and Bosh rather than Wade. Lebron had the keys to the offense and IMO called his own number a little too often most of the season (his bizarre turn in the Finals the obvious exception)

I'm really re-thinking my order.

If its not too late, I'd like to edit mine to go:

1.Dirk
2.Wade
3.Lebron
4.Howard
5.Rose

[ElGee]

I often ask myself "where does this team's strength come from? How are they generating wins?" it's not an issue of names on the back of the jersey, but roles, tendencies, strengths, etc. For the Lakers last year, that giant front line was enormous, for eg.

For the Heat, they had an interesting season. Many people look at the 01 Lakers as "ramping" up and judge the entire structure of the season in the scope of the playoffs and health. Or the 85 Lakers and their ridiculous close. The Heat started 9-8 -- it's reasonable not to ignore that -- but on the other hand, it should be appreciated that a team of essentially THREE NBA players closed at a 62-win pace. And they didn't even cover the skill curve chart between the 3 of them (like Boston's big 3 do).

They then steamrolled through to the brink of a title with little help from legit role players Mike Miller (injury) and Udonis Haslem (injury). Joel Anthony, Chalmers and maybe James Jones (shooting specialist) were really the only other reasonable role players they rolled out there. They were so weak at C and PG that they kept changing the starters (who would fall out of the league) at different posts during the race. I was impressed they were so close...didn't expect it this year.

I was tempted to have LeBron and Wade 1-2. Not saying it's correct, but it's reasonable given all they did this year. They may well be the two best players on earth. I understand it's entirely counterintuitive to people to see the two best on a non-title team. But really, they were a coin flip from a championship -- one of the closest playoff series of this generation -- and most of that top offense AND elite defense were powered by Wade and James.

It's weird to think in future seasons that their combined POY shares will be higher if they win a title, but their heavy lifting will be lighter because it will probably be the result of having more than 2 or 3 certifiable NBA players around them.

Also, have been lazy in posting it (still have a few OKC and Chi games to track), but just wanted to stick the EV of players discussed over the last 14-months (large-sample size) here for the thread archives:

Howard +10.1
James +7.9
Wade +6.1
Kobe +4.7
Ginobili +4.4
Dirk +4.0 (-0.7 on D)
Rose +4.0
Durant +3.6

Paul wasn't close to the 1500 pos cutoff, but in 879 pos he was +6.5.

[mysticbb]

That's your preferred weighting not mine. As I said, I basically always felt that their regular seasons were close enough that I'd decide largely on playoff performance.

Which weighting would you prefer? In essence I say playoff minutes are twice as much valuable as regular season minutes. If we weight them equally, the boxscore numbers would be even more in favor of James.

Is it really that strange to you that I prefer Wade's playoff performance to LeBron's?

Yes, that is really strange. The difference in the ECF was huge in favor of James. I said that before, but I was really surprised seeing Wade playing with that much energy in the finals, but his game 1 was hardly mind-blowing and his game 6 either. Now it comes down to being better in game 2, 3, 4 and 5. And in the end the difference between James and Wade in those games were basically as big in average as the difference between James and Wade in the ECF games 2, 3, 4 and 5. And then we have to see that the Heat lost 3 of those 4 games in which Wade was better than James, while the Heat won all 4 games in the ECF in which James played better than Wade. Now it comes down to the question whether the boxscore numbers by Wade in the finals really reflect his superior impact in comparison to James. And honestly, I didn't see it.

[mysticbb]

Howard +10.1
James +7.9
Wade +6.1
Kobe +4.7
Ginobili +4.4
Dirk +4.0 (-0.7 on D)
Rose +4.0
Durant +3.6

What I find weird is that Synergy Sports actually tracked Nowitzki as an above average player on defense while you somehow find him being a negative defensively. Should I question Synergy Sports results or your results? Because obviously both are based on video studies, but with contradicting results.

[ElGee]

Howard +10.1
James +7.9
Wade +6.1
Kobe +4.7
Ginobili +4.4
Dirk +4.0 (-0.7 on D)
Rose +4.0
Durant +3.6

What I find weird is that Synergy Sports actually tracked Nowitzki as an above average player on defense while you somehow find him being a negative defensively. Should I question Synergy Sports results or your results? Because obviously both are based on video studies, but with contradicting results.

I wouldn't. I'm assigning values for an all-in-one metric. Synergy just breaks down different situations. Furthermore, rebounding is included for me, and Dirk's DREB the last 2 years has basically been the lowest of his career. Curious, what do the synergy numbers say? Can you post them? How do they treat forced TOV in help situations like steals and charges?

[Vinsanity420]

I'd go so far as to argue that Miami would've been better if Lebron was less productive because of decreased usage, but those touches going to Miami role players and Bosh rather than Wade. Lebron had the keys to the offense and IMO called his own number a little too often most of the season (his bizarre turn in the Finals the obvious exception)

The Heat was a Top 3 offensive team in the league, and neither team that were above the Heat in offense (SA, Denver) managed to also be Top 5 in defense as well... the Heat did. LeBron was getting it done on both sides of the court during the RS.

If one values the Finals just THAT MUCH MORE (Not even the entire finals... 4 out of 6 games) than the ECF, I can see why you think Wade suddenly surpasses LeBron. Going back into the season and criticizing his usage rate is really nitpicking IMO... Every reasonable person had LeBron as the best player in the league after the RS ( and LeBron > Wade going into the finals), how much more efficient/better did you want him to be?

[mopper8]

I'd go so far as to argue that Miami would've been better if Lebron was less productive because of decreased usage, but those touches going to Miami role players and Bosh rather than Wade. Lebron had the keys to the offense and IMO called his own number a little too often most of the season (his bizarre turn in the Finals the obvious exception)

The Heat was a Top 3 offensive team in the league, and neither team that were above the Heat in offense (SA, Denver) managed to also be Top 5 in defense as well... the Heat did. LeBron was getting it done on both sides of the court during the RS.

If one values the Finals just THAT MUCH MORE (Not even the entire finals... 4 out of 6 games) than the ECF, I can see why you think Wade suddenly surpasses LeBron. Going back into the season and criticizing his usage rate is really nitpicking IMO... Every reasonable person had LeBron as the best player in the league after the RS ( and LeBron > Wade going into the finals), how much more efficient/better did you want him to be?

The Heat offense was at its best when they actually ran through the offense for more than 1 or 2 options (granting that those options were not open layups/role player jumpers), and too often Lebron broke off plays to ISO when Miami didn't see success early in the shotclock. Wade as guilty of this well, but to a lesser degree. Why does this matter?

Well, as you can see from my sig below lol, I'm a big believe in the importance of habits. Part of the problem with Miami's offense hitting lulls/stalling out/reducing in effectiveness in the playoffs was the result of bad habits; in the playoffs, everyone has scouted your stuff and knows what's coming and can snuff out the first and second triggers of the offense just by virtue of film prep. That's where precision of execution and composure is so valuable, being able to continue to run through the sets even when you don't get initial success from them. Miami developed bad habits during the regular season offensively, or more accurately, the Heat coaching staff did not fully stamp out 7 years of bad habits from Wade/Lebron as much as they needed to. In the Finals what you saw a lot was this bad confusion from Lebron where he'd break off a set and take a bad shot, and then over-compensate the next trip down by over-passing. He couldn't figure out how to simply play within the flow.

You had the same stuff at the end of games in rounds 1 and 2, but Lebron managed to hit his shots so everyone praised him. But it was the same vs Dallas: they'd go stretches where they orchestrated their offense as perfectly as you could, and then start jacking 3s and going 1-on-1 and turning it over.

[JordansBulls]

My Final Vote:

3. Dwyane Wade

4. LeBron James

I think it makes sense to take these two together. If LeBron ahead of Wade all season, does it really make sense to let one series flip things? More than that, given how LeBron outperformed Wade in the Conference Finals, am I blowing what happened in the actual Finals out of proportion?

While the choice of LeBron over Wade during the regular season, and on the through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs seemed obvious to me, it was by no means a big lead. LeBron was slightly more productive, which is part of why I gave him the nod, but neither player was putting up as impressive numbers as last year. Bottom line is that the team could have focused more on Wade getting his and I don’t think it would have hurt them. My feeling all season long was that the higher ranked of the 2 would be based on what happened when they actually had to fight for their lives. Obviously, that’s where Wade shined, and LeBron disappointed. Hence my decision.

I think the bold is the key bit there. If you agree, then the difference in productivity doesn't seem as significant. If you disagree, then obviously that's a big deal because there's no denying that Lebron was more productive.

I'd go so far as to argue that Miami would've been better if Lebron was less productive because of decreased usage, but those touches going to Miami role players and Bosh rather than Wade. Lebron had the keys to the offense and IMO called his own number a little too often most of the season (his bizarre turn in the Finals the obvious exception)

I'm really re-thinking my order.

If its not too late, I'd like to edit mine to go:

1.Dirk
2.Wade
3.Lebron
4.Howard
5.Rose

You have the same 5 in the same order as me.

[Dr Positivity]

So if Dirk gets .900, he will edge out Baylor for #20 on the overall list. That's like exactly where he should be. Also looks like something #16 for Lebron and #19 for Wade. Looks pretty good for both as well

[Gongxi]

Jesus Christ, .900? Funny compared to how people had him after the first round. Are we sure this isn't the Retro Finals MVP award, again? It really is kinda jaw-dropping how strong the perception/narrative that the best player holds the championship trophy at the end of every season. No other sport has such a culture around it...

[lorak]

If I'm allowed to vote (I was participating in POY project from the beginning):

1. Dirk
2. LeBron
3. Dwight
4. Wade
5. CP

[NO-KG-AI]

Jesus Christ, .900? Funny compared to how people had him after the first round. Are we sure this isn't the Retro Finals MVP award, again? It really is kinda jaw-dropping how strong the perception/narrative that the best player holds the championship trophy at the end of every season. No other sport has such a culture around it...

The fact that LeBron is dropping below Wade is getting funny too, he's better all year, and Wade plays like ass in Chicago while LeBron saves the series.

LeBron goes on to play like ass, while Wade does well, and they lose. Doesn't that say it all right there?

[ronnymac2]

Jesus Christ, .900? Funny compared to how people had him after the first round. Are we sure this isn't the Retro Finals MVP award, again? It really is kinda jaw-dropping how strong the perception/narrative that the best player holds the championship trophy at the end of every season. No other sport has such a culture around it...

The fact that LeBron is dropping below Wade is getting funny too, he's better all year, and Wade plays like ass in Chicago while LeBron saves the series.

LeBron goes on to play like ass, while Wade does well, and they lose. Doesn't that say it all right there?

I get the logic behind that.

But that's an odd argument to prove 2011 LBJ over 2011 D-Wade. You're saying Miami can't afford to have LBJ play badly. If he plays badly, they lose. Well, he played badly, and they lost in the NBA Finals. That event itself doesn't prove which player is better or worse at basketball.

It just shows that LBJ's individual play was a direct cause of his team losing. Why should that fact benefit LeBron?

[NO-KG-AI]

Well, it's a poor argument either way, because LeBron just had a flat out better season, but we really have two major series with a basis for comparison, and Miami won with Wade playing poorly (in 5 games no less) and when LeBron flatlined, they got beat.

If Wade's better finals, a series they lost, nullifies everything else that happened this season, then this project needs to be renamed or something, because the finals are carrying far too much weight.

[mopper8]

I'm very comfortable with Dirk-Wade-Howard in that order somewhere in 2-4. I'm very comfortable with Rose at 5.

I have -zero- conviction as to where to place Lebron though lol.

FWIW, I thought Wade was better before the season started and while Lebron was a little better than I thought, I still had the same frustrations with him that I had when he played for Cleveland, and he didn't do a ton to change my mind about his limitations as player. So its not like me sliding Lebron behind Wade (after initially having him at #1) is that surprising.

[kaima]

Have no idea if my vote will be counted.

But...

1)Dwight
2)Durant
3)Nowitzki
4)James
5)Wade

Try to flesh this out later.

Point and argument is this: correct balance of regular+playoff performances, and not allowing a team narrative, as well as favorable matchups, to cloud individual worth either pro or con.

In that sense, I very much looked at the context of the Finals -- wherein Dirk wasn't overwhelming, while James was simply under -- and that nudged Nowitzki over James.

Is that fair? I don't fully know. But I can't see James as number 1 after that, and I don't see a way in which Nowitzki was the best player for the entire, aggregate, look at the year.

Dwight Howard had the best mix of regular and post-seasons. I firmly believe that.

Small sample size? To me, it's the opposite -- Nowitzki's season, and career, are being defined by twenty games, while the other 82, wherein he was often an after-thought, are forgotten.

I believe that both players greatly helped their teams, but the team-result shouldn't overwhelm the individual's skillset and worth.

The problem for me, with LeBron, is that they conflated quite obviously at the absolute worst time. The team losses because he loses the plot individually, including his ability to facilitate -- i.e. beyond common box score stats, particularly PPG.

I have to dock him for that, even though I think he was the best player in the league for the rest of the year.

Honestly, I feel I'm being a bit harsh on LeBron and generous with Nowitzki. The latter wasn't top five for me before the playoffs.

And the past POY threads have been pretty consistent with that as well, wherein Nowitzki more often than not missed the cut.

The hagiography inherent with a championship.

Feels bizarre to leave Kobe off. And sad.

[kaima]

Jesus Christ, .900? Funny compared to how people had him after the first round. Are we sure this isn't the Retro Finals MVP award, again? It really is kinda jaw-dropping how strong the perception/narrative that the best player holds the championship trophy at the end of every season. No other sport has such a culture around it...

Rather explaining the career of The Sports Guy. A guy who was a lousy comedy writer, now using lame pop culture analogy and/or allegory to prop up opinions that are often unsupported by watching the games, with it all leading back to misty-eyed retellings of McHale-Bird-Russell-Cousy dominating games through team-result.

New England Bias clouds the sports media, and no sport has more NE (positive) myth-making than the NBA.

[shawngoat23]

1. Dirk
2. Dwight
3. Rose
4. LeBron
5. Wade

(And yes, Dwight and Dirk were my two leading MVP candidates before Dirk missed seven games with injury then became disrespected.)

(Also, pretty busy, didn't notice this thread until just now, so I slapped up a ballot without reading what others had to say. I feel pretty good about it though.)

[Doctor MJ]

Last call.