Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt

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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#81 » by lorak » Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:32 pm

bastillon wrote:
DavidStern wrote:Not true. It's really interesting how you point out pace over and over again when you talk about Wilt's stats, but in other cases you suddenly forgot about high 60s pace ;]

As I showed above West and Oscar were between +4 and +5 TS% in playoffs. If we adjust their volume to 90 pace (assuming in the 60s they played at 115 pace in playoffs) then we got Oscar as 17 ppg scorer and West 23 ppg. It's far away from Jordan who was 33.5 ppg scorer with +3.1 TS%


something's wrong or I just don't get it. Wilt was a 52% TS player in the postseason. Oscar in his prime (62-67 for postseason because he didn't play in the postseason until 71) was 30 ppg 56.6% TS player. so he was playing in the same time period as Wilt, was much more efficient than Wilt, and yet ends up the same? same with West, dude was putting up 31 ppg @ 56% TS in his prime (61-70).

(...)

now consistently going by your logic, Oscar and West would've been +8-9% TS players in the postseason


It's difficult to discuss with you, because you are using different criteria - depends on what fits your agenda. Once you use career numbers (for example poor Wilt's career playoffs FT%), but on other occasion prime Oscar's or West's TS%. So please, decide what are you want to talk about - careers, primes or maybe peaks? And once you decide, be consistent.

And BTW, I don't know from where 8-9 TS% came from, because '62-'67 Oscar in playoffs had +8.1 TS% and '61-'70 West +6.7.

fpliii wrote:
You have some great breakdowns, thanks for your work. I'm just wondering, have you done breakdowns against Russell and everyone else for West, Oscar in the playoffs (I think the Royals and Celtics only played each other in three series during Russell's tenure)? I'm interested in seeing the TS% and scoring volume shifts (I'd suggest Pettit and Baylor as well, but we don't have a spreadsheet for Pettit yet and I think the data on Baylor is spotty at best). :)


Not yet, but maybe tomorrow I will ;]
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#82 » by Squeedump » Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:40 pm

fpliii wrote:
Squeedump wrote:
fpliii wrote:
OT - Before you go, who would your top 10 defensive players in league history be? Since you've watched a lot of players it would be very interesting/valuable information. Thanks. :)


Bigs, that's pretty easy--Russell, Thurmond, Mutombo, Walton when healthy, Duncan, Wilt...who knows how good Sabonis might have been in the NBA in his prime, but pretty good...perimeter players that's harder because there were a lot of good ones...I'd start with Frazier, Havlicek, Moncreif, Payton, Van Lier...Pippen is on the list somewhere...Rodman though I think he tends to a bit overrated on this board...there are some really good ones right now...George and Leonard...I think in general defense is highly underrated on this board, which is fixated too much on scoring and considers black holes like Anthony to be superstars...I also think there are a lot of players who got defensive awards they didn't deserve because they were superstars in other aspects of the game...I think among the bigs, while it's had to diss Russell, Nate Thurmond was the best I ever saw...the guy was super ripped and was a bulldog...opposing center hated to play against him...with all due repect to a guy like Payton, who was a great defender in his own right, as the guard position no one comes really close to Walt Frazier as a defender...Havicek may be the most underrated and overlooked all-around player on this board...he played the game the right way...it would have been interesting to listen in on a discussion about the game between him and John Wooden--I think it would have boiled down eventually to nods of total agreement...Bob Pettit is seldom given much credit here, either...I think he might rank with the best in the game at PF if in his prime playing today...same with Billy Cunnningham, who somehow never gets metioned among the best SFs of all time...


Thanks for the response. Speaking of Nate, have you seen this video of him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xh90_lXqh5o

? There's some great stuff in there. I actually just did some research on his Warriors teams (dumped archives of old Oakland Tribune newspapers), I'm gonna go through the synopses when I have a chance.


No, hadn't seen this particular one...though I'm sure Bastillon and WhenGatlingwasaRookie will find lots of reasons why he would supposedly be a scrub playing in his prime today.. :roll:
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#83 » by Beat23 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:58 pm

He along with lebron are the singular greatest talents ever, but he regularly lost to Russell, with teams that were not always as inferior as people make it seem.

He can't be above Russell considering how Russell regularly beat him.

His individual numbers will never be touched, but like anyone before 1980 it is hard to compare them to players of today.

I think he could easily fall out of the top ten but no lower than 12
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#84 » by bastillon » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:00 pm

DavidStern wrote:Dwight had several seasons with 60 FG% range. So Wilt, who was similar limited as postup player but BETTER finisher and offensive rebounder, could today as well average +20 ppg with around 60% from the field.

Second, you're ignoring different approach to the game in the 60s. Players then weren't necessary worse shooters skill wise. But they have taken more bad shots because of general basketball philosophy. And Wilt wasn't exception here. But in modern game he would defenietly be better in terms of shot selection. I actually think Dwight is very good comparison scoring wise - but Wilt was even better finisher and offensive rebounder.

Look, Dwight with FT% like volume Wilt (52.3%) would be still +5.6 TS% player in playoffs. So it's very reasonable to think, that Wilt, who 1) would take much less stupid shots (different era philosophy), 2) would play much less vs GOAT defender (volume Wilt played 57% of his playoffs games vs Russell) and 3) was better finisher and offensive rebounder than Dwight, would be today in playoffs +20 ppg scorer with efficiency at +4 maybe even +5 TS% level (I think Wilt today would slightly improve his FT shooting, because back in the 60s he often changed his mechanics and routine - that wouldn't happen today).


well I don't see it that way. the guy who is looking similar to Dwight is Artis Gilmore. power player who was quite efficient around the basket but had limited post moves, poor passing skills and lousy counters. but A-Train was much more efficient than Wilt. he averaged 56% FG/60% TS for his career. if you were looking for Dwight's old school version, A-Train fits perfectly.

Wilt just played completely different than Dwight. despite being a great finisher and offensive rebounder he wasn't a power player. typical Wilt post up: receives the ball down low, makes a couple fake passes and either passes it off to somebody, or starts dribbling. dribbles twice, and either turns around for a fadeaway or tries to scoop a fingeroll. this is not a power player when left to break down the defense. he was extremely soft for someone his size, with his strength and athleticism. the comparison is just bad. I refered to Dwight 2008 only to make a point that Wilt's post game was very raw. stylistically he was different than Dwight.

as for as the shot selection...this is actually a very interesting issue that people are misinterpreting when it comes to Wilt. notice every time Wilt played for a smart coach he was made into a 5th option as a scorer. am I supposed to believe that better shot selection in Wilt's case means that he's gonna be a 20+ ppg player with today's pace? because during Wilt's own career best shot selection for Wilt was not to take any shots at all if possible. the best offensive teams Wilt played on, oh the coincidence, were also the teams who excluded Wilt from scoring on offense. look at how much both Sixers offense improved from 66 to 67 and how much Lakers offense improved from 71 to 72-73. went from somewhat average to all-time levels. that happened with Wilt being the LAST scoring option offensively. well that just proves Wilt's volume scoring is detrimental to great offenses. there's not much talent gap between those Sixers/Lakers teams and each improved greatly year to year just on the basis of Wilt Chamberlain not attempting to score anymore.

also... lmao at saying Wilt would be a better FT shooter. the guy tried everything, even went to psychiatrist about this. is it so hard to understand he didn't have any shooting talent whatsoever? in today's league people change their mechanics all the time. LeBron, Shaq, Dwight... they all tried to improve a little bit shooting wise and made some adjustments. Wilt tried to improve as well and couldn't. he just sucked at shooting, at any range. had no shooting touch.

I even saw posters back in the day saying Wilt was as good a shooter as KG. except Garnett's FT efficiency was like twice as good :rofl: what's wrong with you guys? somehow 60s didn't stop Oscar from being an 85% FT shooter. oh I forgot Oscar would shoot 90% today because of better medicine!! :rofl:

BTW, Chicago mentioned it, but it seems you are ignoring it, so I'll repeat: different FT rules during 60s affected TS% and that's another reason why we should use TS% relatively to league average.

explain.

I'm sorry Bastillon, but you are using double standards here: when you talk about Wilt then it's playoffs all the time, when about Oscar, West or KAJ - then you cite regular season stats.

Playoffs TS% relatively to league average:

Wilt career +3.5, 22.5 PPG, 47.2 MPG
Wilt as volume scorer +4.0, 32.8 PPG, 47.5 MPG

KAJ in Milwaukee +3.8, 29.7 PPG, 44.8 MPG
Oscar career +4.2 (+5.4 without 1972, when he was injured), 22.2 PPG, 42.7 MPG
West career (I'm not counting two one-game playoffs "runs") +4.9 TS%, 29.5 PPG, 41.8 MPG

So Wilt as volume scorer in playoffs doesn't look worse, especially if we consider that he didn't play with guys like Oscar, KAJ or even Baylor and played vs Russell more ofthen than others.


I answered to that in part in my previous post. but let me just say one thing. the only reason you're using Kareem's Bucks years is because he struggled shooting the ball in those years in the playoffs. he played Thurmond like 3 times and Wilt twice so there's a good reason why (admittedly Wilt was a legendary post defender). you thought I wouldn't notice? of all the people on this board, you should know better. yes, Kareem struggled so much in his Bucks days that he was actually made inefficient in the postseason. now compare early 70s Kareem to his 77-80 version. Kareem was like, what, +15% TS in 77? +20%? selecting Bucks years as a way of bringing down Kareem to Wilt offensively is disappointing.

similarly you should be using the same years for West and Oscar as for Wilt-volume scorer. but you didnt because it didn't suit your agenda. you're trying to prove adjustments are necessary and that those results are not ridiculous at all. but they are ridiculous so what you've been doing here is manipulating with stats. you knew damn well that late 60s/early 70s had much higher TS% lg average than early 60s so you're using career numbers for West and Oscar because they were playing a lot of playoff games then. for example Oscar was 31 ppg 56.6% TS scorer with the Royals but only 22/54% TS for career because of how many playoff games he played in his Bucks career. if you compare Wilt's high volume years with Oscar/West in the same years, the latter two are far away better. simple as that.

now do me a favor and stop doing your magic. I didn't even have to check numbers anywhere to know what you did, why you chose certain years etc. its not gonna work on me.

either way, it makes no sense to make those efficiency adjustments to begin with. you're operating under the assumption that other players struggling to shoot impacted how Wilt shot the ball himself. but that's just not how it works. during the same time period guys like West and Oscar shot the ball a lot better (including FT shooting here). during the 60s, assuming your theory of poor shooting affecting Wilt, Wilt should've improved in terms of efficiency. Oscar should've. same goes for West. Russell. Hondo. I could go on. those guys didn't get better in terms of efficiency as the years went by (Hondo became much more efficient as the main guy though). it proves that other players shooting poorly didn't impact how they shot. makes no sense to compare to lg average and give 60s players handicap just because their opponents couldn't put the ball in the basket.

what makes sense is to give Wilt credit that he was playing Russell like a lot so that brought his efficiency way down. it'd be good to know splits against different opponents. not just Russell/nonRussell. for example I know Wilt didn't play well v Reed or Thurmond either. generally the problem with Wilt was performance against guys who didn't let him score easy pts inside. Wilt was still lucky though because guys in the 60s, even the best defenders, were mismatches for him. I'd like to see prime Wilt get embarassed by Artis Gilmore (I mean his offense).
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#85 » by ceiling raiser » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:14 pm

bastillion - I'm just curious...can you please give Wilt's closest comparisons (in your opinion):

• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

like 3-5 guys for each, just so I can get an idea of who you have in Wilt's class for each category. Thanks.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#86 » by Squeedump » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:19 pm

Beat23 wrote:He along with lebron are the singular greatest talents ever, but he regularly lost to Russell, with teams that were not always as inferior as people make it seem.

He can't be above Russell considering how Russell regularly beat him.

His individual num but like anyone before 1980 it is hard to compare them to players of today. bers will never be touched,
I think he could easily fall out of the top ten but no lower than 12


Why? The style was different, but ball is ball..you still have to shoot, pass, rebound, defend, handle the ball, etc., etc. Are you another one here who harbors the factually and logically unsupportable notion that in half a century athletes have become exponentially better than the best among their fathers' and grandfathers' generations?
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#87 » by Dipper 13 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:23 pm

bastillon wrote: look at how much both Sixers offense improved from 66 to 67


:nonono:

They only improved by +3.4, compared to the +7.2 improvement they showed from the first half of the 1965 season to the 1965-66 season.

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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#88 » by bastillon » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:29 pm

DavidStern wrote:It's difficult to discuss with you, because you are using different criteria - depends on what fits your agenda. Once you use career numbers (for example poor Wilt's career playoffs FT%), but on other occasion prime Oscar's or West's TS%. So please, decide what are you want to talk about - careers, primes or maybe peaks? And once you decide, be consistent.

And BTW, I don't know from where 8-9 TS% came from, because '62-'67 Oscar in playoffs had +8.1 TS% and '61-'70 West +6.7.


well, I talked about Wilt being the worst FT shooter ever to illustrate that a) he didn't have any shooting touch whatsoever b) to highlight the FTs as something you need to take into account (as opposed to using FG% or better yet eFG% like penbeast used :lol: ). what does it matter if Wilt was a 45% FT shooter or 50% ? the point remains: a) his go to offense being a fadeaway banker is laughable given how inefficient he was at shooting the ball b) his FG% might look pretty good but after accounting for FTs it's only 52% TS for his career, a mark that Karl Malone is getting torn apart. considering you're probably Karl Malone's biggest critique on this board, I think you understand what I was trying to say.

as for Oscar and West... Wilt was a 52% TS shooter and you said he was +4% TS in 60-66. Oscar's TS% was 4.6% better than Wilt's so I figured it'd be something like ~8-9. similarly West was around 56% TS which is 4% better than Wilt. 4+4=8. that's where it came from. obviously lg average was improving as the 60s went along so there were some differences but it just proves it... adjusting for efficiency makes no sense. players were not impacted by others efficiency.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#89 » by Dipper 13 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:48 pm

fpliii wrote:bastillion - I'm just curious...can you please give Wilt's closest comparisons (in your opinion):

• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

like 3-5 guys for each, just so I can get an idea of who you have in Wilt's class for each category. Thanks.


He is all over the place. At least there's some new material this time. Now Wilt has become a soft, physically weak player with poor balance, poor dribbling, and poor scoring ability.

Maybe if they saw him palming or carrying the ball more like below, a more modern era style of play:

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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#90 » by bastillon » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:09 pm

fpliii wrote:bastillion - I'm just curious...can you please give Wilt's closest comparisons (in your opinion):

• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

like 3-5 guys for each, just so I can get an idea of who you have in Wilt's class for each category. Thanks.


Wilt is incredibly hard to evaluate skillwise because he did so many things at different points of his career. there were 3 Wilts: volume scorer, passer, and Laker Wilt. but what makes it even harder is that Wilt would just focus on one thing, like he wanted to be a league leader in assists in 68 so he did whatever it took to be just that. Sixers offense went from all-time good in 67 to just above average. it was just like 1-2 assists more but made offense a lot worse. whenever you talk about his defense, passing or scoring, you have to point out to the year you're talking about. people often say he was great scorer (pointing out to Warrior Wilt), great passer (pointing out to Sixers Wilt) and great defender (pointing out to Lakers Wilt, who was btw overrated defensively). you could do the same thing and say Wilt was low volume scorer (Lakers Wilt), wouldn't pass the ball (Warrior Wilt) and didn't play defense (69 for example).

this is what's so unique about Wilt: his inconsistency in particular aspects of his game. until you understand that, you're unable to wrap your head around his supposed versatility. he always lacked something and sometimes he lacked multiple things. Wilt at his best was a beast in the paint defensively, great finisher at low volume scoring, and hit cutters as a passer. people mistake Wilt for great volume scoring when in fact he should've be playing like Tyson Chandler (stylistically) with more touches offensively to run the offense through him sometimes where'd he pass it off. this is Wilt that should've been playing in the NBA every year and he could be the best player in the NBA. but you had a year where Wilt wouldn't even make impact at all. you could have a 44/30 Wilt who was playing on a 30W team. or go to a team that had been starving to death for a center all decade (60s Lakers) and not make any impact at all.

it makes no sense to distinguish passing/scoring/rebounding stylistically. for Wilt the biggest issue was not lack of certain skills but lack of feel for the game overall. he didn't know what to do on the court. 68 G7 is a classic example of this. he scored like 2 pts in the 2nd half and his team lost. Wilt didn't call for the ball so the ball didnt come to Wilt. sometmes Wilt was just dumb. feel for the game is something that he really really would need to be a true legend.

overall I'd say Wilt was similar to Kareem as a passer stylistically (Kareem was better though, had a better feel when to pass). defensively he's very similar to Shaq. liability on the pick and roll and in transition, can't cover much floor laterally. but a beastly shotblocker and hell of an intimidating presence. not much of a help defender unless the guy wants to come inside but changed a lot of shots. effort was a huge issue though and sometimes he could be a liability because he never come out of the paint so he struggled against jumpshooting centers (Reed torched him for example). offensively out of his 20 rebounds about 7-8 were on the offensive glass. he wasn't a skilled rebounder but because of his height and athleticism he was dominant. kinda similar to Artis Gilmore offensively but a lot softer 1 on 1 (Gilmore was a power player, would dunk on people whenever he had a chance). with Wilt sometimes you could just throw the ball over people and if Wilt catches it deep, it's over. he scored a tons of pts like that from what I've seen. as a low post scorer he looks like a scrub to me. just couldn't score against set defense. much better passer out of the low post than scorer. I don't consider putbacks/alleyoops/finishing off the catch as low post scoring. I'm strictly talking about a possession when Wilt would set up down low with everybody set and a defender behind him. he struggled to create something offensively when played well because his skills were all outright bad in that regard (ballhandling, footwork, balance, post moves, shooting touch).
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#91 » by ceiling raiser » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:34 pm

bastillon wrote:
fpliii wrote:bastillion - I'm just curious...can you please give Wilt's closest comparisons (in your opinion):

• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

like 3-5 guys for each, just so I can get an idea of who you have in Wilt's class for each category. Thanks.


Wilt is incredibly hard to evaluate skillwise because he did so many things at different points of his career. there were 3 Wilts: volume scorer, passer, and Laker Wilt. but what makes it even harder is that Wilt would just focus on one thing, like he wanted to be a league leader in assists in 68 so he did whatever it took to be just that. Sixers offense went from all-time good in 67 to just above average. it was just like 1-2 assists more but made offense a lot worse. whenever you talk about his defense, passing or scoring, you have to point out to the year you're talking about. people often say he was great scorer (pointing out to Warrior Wilt), great passer (pointing out to Sixers Wilt) and great defender (pointing out to Lakers Wilt, who was btw overrated defensively). you could do the same thing and say Wilt was low volume scorer (Lakers Wilt), wouldn't pass the ball (Warrior Wilt) and didn't play defense (69 for example).

this is what's so unique about Wilt: his inconsistency in particular aspects of his game. until you understand that, you're unable to wrap your head around his supposed versatility. he always lacked something and sometimes he lacked multiple things. Wilt at his best was a beast in the paint defensively, great finisher at low volume scoring, and hit cutters as a passer. people mistake Wilt for great volume scoring when in fact he should've be playing like Tyson Chandler (stylistically) with more touches offensively to run the offense through him sometimes where'd he pass it off. this is Wilt that should've been playing in the NBA every year and he could be the best player in the NBA. but you had a year where Wilt wouldn't even make impact at all. you could have a 44/30 Wilt who was playing on a 30W team. or go to a team that had been starving to death for a center all decade (60s Lakers) and not make any impact at all.

it makes no sense to distinguish passing/scoring/rebounding stylistically. for Wilt the biggest issue was not lack of certain skills but lack of feel for the game overall. he didn't know what to do on the court. 68 G7 is a classic example of this. he scored like 2 pts in the 2nd half and his team lost. Wilt didn't call for the ball so the ball didnt come to Wilt. sometmes Wilt was just dumb. feel for the game is something that he really really would need to be a true legend.

overall I'd say Wilt was similar to Kareem as a passer stylistically (Kareem was better though, had a better feel when to pass). defensively he's very similar to Shaq. liability on the pick and roll and in transition, can't cover much floor laterally. but a beastly shotblocker and hell of an intimidating presence. not much of a help defender unless the guy wants to come inside but changed a lot of shots. effort was a huge issue though and sometimes he could be a liability because he never come out of the paint so he struggled against jumpshooting centers (Reed torched him for example). offensively out of his 20 rebounds about 7-8 were on the offensive glass. he wasn't a skilled rebounder but because of his height and athleticism he was dominant. kinda similar to Artis Gilmore offensively but a lot softer 1 on 1 (Gilmore was a power player, would dunk on people whenever he had a chance). with Wilt sometimes you could just throw the ball over people and if Wilt catches it deep, it's over. he scored a tons of pts like that from what I've seen. as a low post scorer he looks like a scrub to me. just couldn't score against set defense. much better passer out of the low post than scorer. I don't consider putbacks/alleyoops/finishing off the catch as low post scoring. I'm strictly talking about a possession when Wilt would set up down low with everybody set and a defender behind him. he struggled to create something offensively when played well because his skills were all outright bad in that regard (ballhandling, footwork, balance, post moves, shooting touch).


Okay, let's split it up into the three phases then. List closest comparisons for each of the three.

Volume Scoring Years
• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

Passing Years
• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

Lakers Wilt
• as a scorer (post moves/skills)
• as a scorer (everything else)
• as a passer
• as a rebounder
• as an individual defender
• as a rim protector
• as a team defender (everything aside from man defense in the post, and rim protection)

I wasn't around back then so you're right, I might not understand. As Dipper 13 and others who also post on ISH can testify, I'm much more of a Russell fan and am actually generally hard on Wilt. Here though, it's very important to get on the same page. It would be very helpful to the discussion if you could just name some comparisons for each phase. If we speak in specifics we can perhaps come to some understanding, we can continue the conversation with more clarity. :)
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#92 » by bastillon » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:38 pm

DavidStern wrote:Playoffs TS% relatively to league average:

Wilt career +3.5, 22.5 PPG, 47.2 MPG
Wilt as volume scorer +4.0, 32.8 PPG, 47.5 MPG

Oscar career +4.2 (+5.4 without 1972, when he was injured), 22.2 PPG, 42.7 MPG
West career (I'm not counting two one-game playoffs "runs") +4.9 TS%, 29.5 PPG, 41.8 MPG

So Wilt as volume scorer in playoffs doesn't look worse


it's for people to see whether Wilt doesn't look worse:

playoff TS% for Wilt, West, Oscar

Code: Select all

     year      Wilt    West    Oscar
      60       49.8    ----    ----
      61       49.2    55.3    ----
      62       50.8    54.4    58.6
      63       ----    54.8    57.4
      64       54.3    56.4    56.8
      65       55.2    53.4    52.8
      66       50.0    58.1    53.0
      67       54.6    ----    61.7
      68       51.1    59.6    ----
      69       51.8    54.2    ----


from what I see Wilt isn't in the same league. he only had 3 years were he was efficient scoring the ball. most of the time he was shooting a lot worse than West or Oscar

-in 61 he shot 6% worse than West
-in 62 3% worse than West, 8% worse than Oscar
-in 66 he shot 8% worse than West, 3% worse than Oscar
-in 67 (supposedly GOAT level season) he shot 7% worse than Oscar
-in 68 he shot 8.5% worse than West
-in 69 he shot 2% worse than West. would've been more if he didn't clog the lane for West.

Wilt only had one year were he was more efficient than Oscar/West. usually not in the same ballpark. of course that doesn't take into account the fact that Wilt-centered offenses were mediocre, or how much better West/Oscar were as playmakers. offensively Oscar/West were in a different world than everybody else and Wilt didn't stand out in that regard from everybody else.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#93 » by ceiling raiser » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:07 pm

bastillon wrote:
DavidStern wrote:Playoffs TS% relatively to league average:

Wilt career +3.5, 22.5 PPG, 47.2 MPG
Wilt as volume scorer +4.0, 32.8 PPG, 47.5 MPG

Oscar career +4.2 (+5.4 without 1972, when he was injured), 22.2 PPG, 42.7 MPG
West career (I'm not counting two one-game playoffs "runs") +4.9 TS%, 29.5 PPG, 41.8 MPG

So Wilt as volume scorer in playoffs doesn't look worse


it's for people to see whether Wilt doesn't look worse:

playoff TS% for Wilt, West, Oscar

Code: Select all

     year      Wilt    West    Oscar
      60       49.8    ----    ----
      61       49.2    55.3    ----
      62       50.8    54.4    58.6
      63       ----    54.8    57.4
      64       54.3    56.4    56.8
      65       55.2    53.4    52.8
      66       50.0    58.1    53.0
      67       54.6    ----    61.7
      68       51.1    59.6    ----
      69       51.8    54.2    ----


from what I see Wilt isn't in the same league. he only had 3 years were he was efficient scoring the ball. most of the time he was shooting a lot worse than West or Oscar

-in 61 he shot 6% worse than West
-in 62 3% worse than West, 8% worse than Oscar
-in 66 he shot 8% worse than West, 3% worse than Oscar
-in 67 (supposedly GOAT level season) he shot 7% worse than Oscar
-in 68 he shot 8.5% worse than West
-in 69 he shot 2% worse than West. would've been more if he didn't clog the lane for West.

Wilt only had one year were he was more efficient than Oscar/West. usually not in the same ballpark. of course that doesn't take into account the fact that Wilt-centered offenses were mediocre, or how much better West/Oscar were as playmakers. offensively Oscar/West were in a different world than everybody else and Wilt didn't stand out in that regard from everybody else.


I'm looking forward to DavidStern's breakdown tomorrow of Oscar's/West's TS% vs the Celtics and everybody else. It will tell us a bit more about the scoring of those three (I'd suggest adding Thurmond and Wilt to the good defenders category as well though kept separate from Russ, but it's his decision).
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#94 » by fatal9 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:24 pm

Around 15 I guess. Maybe even lower. Put it this way, I have yet to hear a convincing argument on why Wilt should be head and shoulders over D-Rob (the way he usually is on lists). Defensively, both have different strengths, but in most eras, what D-Rob can do defensively is more impactful and valuable (for me at least, though Wilt has his advantages against certain matchups). Offensively, I wouldn't want to rely on either in a volume scoring role in the playoffs, Wilt though is perhaps better in specialized roles (though his efficiency and scoring still often fell precipitously even in these roles come playoff time). As far as approach to the game, D-Rob is clearly less of a headache to deal with even though he could appear a little too listless at times. Try to separate accolades and tradition for a second, and make a case based on ability to play the game and impact the game on the both ends of the court. For what reason would I want to take Wilt over D-Rob? I can think of reasons I'd want to take KAJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan and other players over him (comfortably in fact), but with Wilt, it's a tougher question to answer for me. Moreover, even if Wilt is better than D-Rob, what's the reasoning for the huge gulf we see in rankings sometimes (Wilt in top 5, D-Rob in barely in top 20), what evidence supports that gulf?

PS, D-Rob in playoffs before dramatically reducing his volume scoring after his injury ('90-'96): 53 games, 22 ppg per 36 minutes, 48.8 FG%/55.7 TS%. Wilt before being asked to dramatically reduce his playoff scoring ('60-'66): 52 games, 24.9 ppg per 36 minutes (**played considerably more possessions per minute), 50.5 FG%/52 TS%.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#95 » by penbeast0 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:32 pm

fatal9 wrote:Around 15 I guess. Maybe even lower. Put it this way, I have yet to hear a convincing argument on why Wilt should be head and shoulders over D-Rob (the way he usually is on lists). Defensively, both have different strengths, but in most eras, what D-Rob can do defensively is more impactful and valuable (for me at least, though Wilt has his advantages against certain matchups). Offensively, I wouldn't want to rely on either in a volume scoring role in the playoffs, Wilt though is perhaps better in specialized roles (though his efficiency and scoring still often fell precipitously even in these roles come playoff time). As far as approach to the game, D-Rob is clearly less of a headache to deal with even though he could appear a little too listless at times. Try to separate accolades and tradition for a second, and make a case based on ability to play the game and impact the game on the both ends of the court. For what reason would I want to take Wilt over D-Rob? I can think of reasons I'd want to take KAJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan and other players over him (comfortably in fact), but with Wilt, it's a tougher question to answer for me. Moreover, even if Wilt is better than D-Rob, what's the reasoning for the huge gulf we see in rankings sometimes (Wilt in top 5, D-Rob in barely in top 20), what evidence supports that gulf?

PS, D-Rob in playoffs before dramatically reducing his volume scoring after his injury ('90-'96): 53 games, 22 ppg per 36 minutes, 48.8 FG%/55.7 TS%. Wilt before being asked to dramatically reduce his playoff scoring ('60-'66): 52 games, 24.9 ppg per 36 minutes (**played considerably more possessions per minute), 50.5 FG%/52 TS%.


Rebounding, longevity, and dominance v. peers (though, like DRob and Hakeem, Wilt was made to look like a lesser player by Bill Russell).
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#96 » by Sark » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:14 am

penbeast0 wrote:
fatal9 wrote:Around 15 I guess. Maybe even lower. Put it this way, I have yet to hear a convincing argument on why Wilt should be head and shoulders over D-Rob (the way he usually is on lists). Defensively, both have different strengths, but in most eras, what D-Rob can do defensively is more impactful and valuable (for me at least, though Wilt has his advantages against certain matchups). Offensively, I wouldn't want to rely on either in a volume scoring role in the playoffs, Wilt though is perhaps better in specialized roles (though his efficiency and scoring still often fell precipitously even in these roles come playoff time). As far as approach to the game, D-Rob is clearly less of a headache to deal with even though he could appear a little too listless at times. Try to separate accolades and tradition for a second, and make a case based on ability to play the game and impact the game on the both ends of the court. For what reason would I want to take Wilt over D-Rob? I can think of reasons I'd want to take KAJ, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan and other players over him (comfortably in fact), but with Wilt, it's a tougher question to answer for me. Moreover, even if Wilt is better than D-Rob, what's the reasoning for the huge gulf we see in rankings sometimes (Wilt in top 5, D-Rob in barely in top 20), what evidence supports that gulf?

PS, D-Rob in playoffs before dramatically reducing his volume scoring after his injury ('90-'96): 53 games, 22 ppg per 36 minutes, 48.8 FG%/55.7 TS%. Wilt before being asked to dramatically reduce his playoff scoring ('60-'66): 52 games, 24.9 ppg per 36 minutes (**played considerably more possessions per minute), 50.5 FG%/52 TS%.


Rebounding, longevity, and dominance v. peers (though, like DRob and Hakeem, Wilt was made to look like a lesser player by Bill Russell).


Russell/Wilt H2H numbers are vastly in favor of Wilt. I don't know how someone could say he looked like the lesser player when you never even saw hom play.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#97 » by fatal9 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:53 am

penbeast0 wrote:Rebounding, longevity, and dominance v. peers (though, like DRob and Hakeem, Wilt was made to look like a lesser player by Bill Russell).


Rebounding is a good reason, but lets break that down to offense and defense. If you view Wilt's defensive rebounding as an advantage on D-Rob (which I too believe it was), is it enough to make him a better defensive player in light of the different (and imo more valuable) defensive skill-set that D-Rob brings? In fact, I think most people, even Wilt fans, would agree that as far as defense is concerned, D-Rob was more consistent over his career than Wilt was (and defense is of enormous importance when rankings bigs). If you view Wilt's offensive rebounding as an offensive advantage over D-Rob (which again, it was), do you view it as enough of an advantage over the other things D-Rob could do (eg. good FT shooting for a center, important since Wilt is literally one of the worst FT shooters ever and caps his efficiency in basically every kind of offensive role he plays).

Longevity, the difference isn't huge, not enough to support ranking one guy so far ahead of the other. Wilt gives you 1 or 2 more all-star caliber seasons. I think D-Rob from '90-'98 provides just as much value as Wilt from '60-'68. D-Rob from '99-'03 probably provides similar value and had similar role to Wilt from '69-'73. D-Rob missed an entire year in '97. Wilt missed an entire year in '70 but was available for playoffs. It's not some sort of huge difference in longevity. As far as prime years, Wilt gives you one extra year but D-Rob's impact year to year seems to be more consistent. Wilt made 3 more all-star teams, but D-Rob didn't make all-star team in a year like '99 for example because there was no all-star game due to the lockout (or D-Rob would definitely be one). The difference really is Wilt being able to play more minutes than D-Rob in his last few years in the league (though D-Rob was a high impact player in the minutes he did play). But it isn't like there is some grand difference in longevity, where one guy is giving you multiple extra high value years. You can tip the scale towards Wilt but I don't think longevity can necessarily be brought up as a separating point.

Dominance vs. peers is kind of not a good reason to me. They played against completely different players and matchups for one. It's a bit unclear, I don't totally understand what you're specifically referring to with this (ie. dominating other all-timers? other players at his position? performance against head to head matchups in playoffs?). Regardless, I'm not totally sure why this is more valuable or different than a player's ability to play basketball. People often WRONGLY use this head to head line of thinking to say Hakeem proved he was better than D-Rob, or even worse, there are detractors who think Hakeem is lucky because him playing well for 6 games is the only reason he is thought of as better than D-Rob. But anyone who has watched them play on both ends should be able to come away with the fact that Hakeem was a much more reliable and skilled offensive player, easier to build an offense around, on another level as a volume scorer, much tougher to make matchup adjustments for, was physically stronger, more aware, active and aggressive on both ends, had a completely different skill set that made him much tougher to deal with, among other things. I would also argue, that D-Rob played better two ways bigs in his prime than Wilt did. The other best centers of the 60s like Thurmond and Russell weren't going to dominate you on offense or challenge you on the score sheet the way Hakeem and Shaq and others would.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#98 » by bastillon » Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:37 am

Dipper 13 wrote:
the only comparable bigs offensively to 93 Hakeem are 00-01 Shaq (29.2 ppg/3.8 apg/57.6% TS), 70-80 Kareem (28.3 ppg/4.5 apg/58.7% TS) and Barkley 89-93 (25.4 ppg/4.3 apg/63.1% TS).


Also 66-67 Wilt (28.8 ppg/6.5 apg/58.2% TS). During those two seasons he helped improve the Sixers offense by +7.2, and eventually +10.6 in 1967 from before he arrived, when they were primarily a running team keyed by Greer & Costello.


I'll answer in this thread.

let me just get something right. I've seen you make those false statements about 66 Sixers in this thread:

Dipper 13 wrote:
bastillon wrote: look at how much both Sixers offense improved from 66 to 67


:nonono:

They only improved by +3.4, compared to the +7.2 improvement they showed from the first half of the 1965 season to the 1965-66 season.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1255357#p36086920

Image
.

well, they were not +3 ORtg team.

Sixers TS%

Code: Select all

    '63-64 -2.0% (no Wilt)
    '64-65 +0.0% (Wilt half season)
    '65-66 +0.0%
    '66-67 +6.1% (Wilt stops volume scoring)


the best way to see how good they were statistically is to sum up their OWS (offensive win shares). Win Shares is a flawed stat on an individual level because it divides credit in an unjustified way (by the boxscore). but on a team level WS is a good stat. I'll put it simply: it does explain how your team won games, with their defense, or with their offense. or how many games they won with offense/defense. if you have a 30 DWS, it means your defense was worth 30 wins.

Sixers WS:

Code: Select all

year  OWS   DWS

64   16.6   13.5  (no Wilt)
65   21.3   18.3  (Wilt half season)
66   22.1   28.5  (Wilt volume scoring)
67   37.0   22.5  (Wilt stops volume scoring but doesn't try to lead the league in assists)
68   26.3   33.6  (Wilt league leader in assists)
69   28.2   23.5  (no Wilt, Jackson injured)


Wilt Phi 1965 (42g) -0.8 to -0.5
Wilt SF 1965 (44g) 3.1 to -4.1
courtesy of ElGee

so Wilt came to Sixers and they were playing actually a little worse (from 0.3 to -0.5), while SF just totally fell apart (went from -4.1 to -7.1). but what's more important is how offense didn't blink until Wilt stopped volume scoring. Wilt was leading a barely above average offense in 65-66 (average team wins 41 games so 20.5 OWS/20.5 DWS is average). then Wilt decided to lead the league in assists and he didn't make as much impact offensively anymore. he was however phenomenal on defense in 68. still nowhere near the best Russell years (whose Celtics peaked at 55 DWS!!! and were usually at 40+ DWS level) but great year defensively nonetheless.

however this shows several issues with Wilt. he can't seem to find right balance. he could've easily played that defense every year, not only in 64 and 68. and when he does play great defense, he has some bad habits like shooting every time he touches it (often inefficiently) or just flat out decides to pass every time so he would lead the league in assists. exactly what I said earlier, he has no feel for the game. only for his stats. doesn't get it. he doesn't know what it takes to win.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#99 » by Dipper 13 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:00 am

So now it's win shares after 3 years of the propaganda of offensive and defensive rating estimates. Why ElGee's estimates instead of Dean Oliver's? Lets remember these are all estimated figures. Just because they had an excellent defense does not mean they didn't improve offensively.
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Re: Lowest reasonable ranking for Wilt 

Post#100 » by Dipper 13 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:33 am

bastillon wrote:things like footwork, balance, ability to spin away from the defense or split the double team


How does a "soft" low post scrub (as you have called him) average 38.6 ppg on 55.9% FG & 56.3% TS in the seven game series against an excellent defensive player in Zelmo Beaty and a very good (1964) defensive Hawks team?

A soft scrub who couldn't score, post up, or read the defense. That is one hell of a narrative you (and many others here on RealGM) have created.

kooldude wrote:I really hope that's just selective plays bc that's some god awful post game. I'm not surprised tho.


Any footage in black and white is going to look much worse than in color. The fact that a travel (clearly incorrect) was called at the 1:26 mark in that video shows how strict that era was. I don't know what kind of eyes you have but I don't see any balance issues or poor footwork at least in the 1964 game. In the 1964 game he actually showed an excellent touch off the glass. But it's more than a little hard to dribble when there are 2-3 guys surrounding you. Against Boston, Wilt's scoring suffered not only because of Russell, but also the fact that the Celtics guards made it difficult to even get the ball into him with their full court pressing defense. In the 1967 game he didn't look as good, but he was not a big time scorer at that point and he was playing with sore knees that night (Game 4). He looks much better in the (color) footage of the other games during that season.



New York Times - Apr 8, 1967

CHAMBERLAIN HIT BY KNEE AILMENT; 76ers' Star Skips Practice but Plans to Face Celtics

PHILADELPHIA --The Philadelphia 76ers' star center, Wilt Chamberlain, who has sparked his team to three consecutive play-off victories over the Boston Celtics, did not practice today because of severe pain in both knee joints.





Take this spin move against Thurmond, which is an excellent move for anyone to have, especially an alleged scrub as he has been declared in this thread. How many players today or historically could make that block from that position? Wilt had him beat, though he should have dunked it. But Nate Thurmond makes an excellent recovery.

Image



Also this play where he takes two crab dribbles ala Shaq and gives Russell the fake (who doesn't bite) and goes up over him anyways. Before that we can see his drop step power move off the boards.

9:02 mark

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Np29MW_XN8[/youtube]




Also his excellent baseline spin move.


2:55 mark

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjwkiXiwzCY[/youtube]


34:46 mark

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNw0c19DhIU[/youtube]





And his huge drop step. How many players today can cover this kind of ground so effortlessly in one step?


3:33 mark

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lnu5vMfPtbw[/youtube]



0:42 mark

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UShBN1POkwY[/youtube]

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