Baller2014 wrote:If Shaq was better than Duncan, why did he have less success in his career, despite: better team mates, a better peak, and a slightly longer prime? That's a simplistic question, but a telling one IMO.
Define less success specifically?
We know basketball isn't a one on one game.....same as strange to me why Duncan never won a DPOY award Doesn't make him any less of an elite defensive player though?
Duncan's teams exceeded or met expectations every year of his prime. Shaq's often didn't. That's it in a nutshell. Look at those talent heavy Lakers teams in 97-99. How were they losing every year? And there are plenty of other disappointments- 03, 04, etc.
Doctor MJ wrote: The toxicity if Shaq may it show up in regression data but it was still very real just as KGs ability to galvanize his teammates with his intensity is real.
Two questions
1. You correctly point out Shaq's negative personality traits and KS's positive ones. It seems impossible to me that Shaq would have tolerated the level of mis-management that surrounded KG which KG more or less passively accepted. Shaq would have certinally complained before leaving town. I suspect many though not all of the other players in consideration for the T20 range would have either publicly or privately threaten to leave. Is that level of passive acceptance a good thing on KG's front?
2. Why wasn't KG able to galvanize Cassell and Sprewell during their open contract rebellion in 2005?
1. This seems like a good point to explain why I don't consider locker room personality when constructing these lists.
I don't know if KG is the most loyal star in history. Let's assume he is. How am I to judge if that is a positive or a negative? In a bad situation, that loyalty maybe isn't best because he doesn't put enough pressure on the FO. In a good situation where he trusts management, goes through 2 rebuilding years, and then after rebuilding they form a dynasty with a free agent signing, it's a great thing. He's a great teammate. He's loyal.
Who am I to judge personality traits? Most non-extreme personality traits can be argued to be good or bad if you flip the environment around.
Nevermind the fact that it's really difficult to get an accurate picture of who these players are anyway. I'm not judging players by how they interact with the media, on Twitter, and through ads. It's basically like analyzing players on the court without watching them, without RAPM, and without any boxscore stats save steals per game. I can't base somebody's goodness on steals per game.
Don't get me wrong, if I were constructing a team as a GM, personality is a huge factor. Leadership is a huge factor. If one wanted to include these things when constructing an all-time list, by all means. I personally do not.
2. I know this contradicts everything I said in Point 1 as well as my quote from 3Pac, but Sprewell is a bit of an ass hole. Nevermind the fact that money was involved, which means right or wrong, it is a personal decision for both Cassell and Spree. They have a right to feel how they want about their contracts and the right to negotiate with Minny's front office. If KG thinks it isn't his place to get involved in another person's personal life, whether it affects his work place or not, I personally don't blame him at all.
Pay no mind to the battles you've won It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle Open your heart and hands, my son Or you'll never make it over the river
Shaq was obviously the best player on his team, but that ignores the contributions his team support gave. To selectively pick his impact stats without looking at the defensive ones or what is teammates contributed doesn't put it all in context imo.
If a team loses it's superstar anchor of course it won't perform as well, who was shaq's backup? Where is the team data for Miami with Wade or other years?
Of course Shaq was more important, but Kobe, Phil Jackson and others made his job easier as an offensive and defensive anchor. He had good man and low post defense, but his Pnr and defensive longevity was poor. He fell off a cliff at age 30.
Here's Kobe Bryants numbers from age 21-24 shaq's peak.
Phil Jackson and Pat Riley were GOAT top 4 coaches, Phil won 8 rings without Shaq, Riley won 4 without him. This level of coaching greatly helped their players.
Shaq never won a ring without Phil Jackson, Pat Riley or a top guard in Kobe, Wade or Penny. They all made his job easier as an offensive and defender in his prime. Hakeem won without an allstar, HOF talent, GOAT coach or nowhere near the defensive help Duncan had.
He was the better combined two way player in impact.
An Unbiased Fan wrote:If Shaq was better than Kobe, why did he have less success in his career, despite: better team mates, a better peak, and a equal prime length? That's a simplistic question, but a telling one IMO.
Kobe is one of the few stars who had more help than Shaq over his career (and worse results relative to expectations. It's also just obvious who the better player was between the two.
1) How in the World has Kobe had more help?
Shaq(94-06) had Penny, Van Exel/Jones(50 win team before Shaq), Kobe, Wade for 13 seasons
(00-11)Kobe had Shaq, Pau for 9 seasons
Shaq went to the Finals 6 times in 13 seasons Kobe went to the Finals 7 times in 9 seasons
Shaq won a ring 4 times in 13 seasons Kobe won a ring 5 times in 9 seasons
Extracting Prime Kobe, Shaq went to the Finals 2 times in 8 seasons, winning 1 ring. Extracting Shaq, Kobe went tot the Finals 3 times in 4 seasons with Pau, winning 2 rings ^ Shaq has arguably had more star support than anyone in NBA history. 3 straight elite wings, and a 50 win Laker team of Van Exel/Jones/Ceballos/Cambell. yet Kobe had more team success in just a 4 year span next to Pau, than Shaq + Penny/Wade.
From 99-04 the Lakers had a 23-26 record in games Shaq missed but Kobe played. During the same period the Lakers record with Shaq and without Kobe was 30-10.
So are you really going to focus on a small sample of missed games during the 3peat years, where guys like Slava Medvedenko was the backup? Nevermind that for some of those stretches other starters were hurt too, like in 2003. Shaq got healthy "on company time" before the 2003 season, and LA had this as the starting lineup....
Fisher Kobe Devean George Horry Soumalia Samake ^ Give the Lakers all of Shaq's hefty salary to pick up some new players and they would have been fine. Don't forget how much of the cap he took up.
Without Shaq Kobe disintegrated in 05-07, where his support casts were not always so bad (certainly not worse than what Shaq tended to have in the games Kobe was injured from 99-04), and in games without Pau or Bynum in 08 the Lakers were barely above 500.
Really, so having Glen Rice in 2000, didn't help when Kobe broke his hand? Those casts were comparable to the Smuch/Kwame ones? really?
And didn't LA win 2 rings with Bynum missing or being hurt the 2nd half of the year 3 straight times.
I can think of few stars who have been given more talent over their careers than Kobe. Shaq exceeded expectations way more than Kobe, who we shouldn't even be discussing until #11 IMO
Exactly how did Shaq exceed expectations more? Kobe did more with Pau, than Shaq + Penny, Van Exel/Jones, Wade.
Please explain.
7-time RealGM MVPoster 2009-2016 Inducted into RealGM HOF 1st ballot in 2017
microfib4thewin wrote:Shaq and young Hakeem playing in today's game would foul out in 30 minutes. They were racking up fouls at an alarmingly high rate in an era where fouls are called less often and they spent more time defending other giants as opposed to 6'6 smalls slashing to the rim. Transporting their prime self to post 04 handchecking where they constantly have to defend much smaller guys where any contact would constitute a foul for the defender? All I can say is good luck with that.
Do you watch today's game? In fact less fouls are called today than ever before. The top 7 seasons in NBA history for fewest fouls per game happened in the last 7 years. The 3 seasons with the fewest FTA/game happened in the last 3 years.
Even if we ignore his last two years where he was very old and extremely overweight he has had more trouble with fouls ever since the revised handchecking from 10 years ago. The most reasonable explanation is that he cannot adjust to a league that requires more finesse.
fpliii wrote:I know you're a big Hakeem guy, and I'm considering him for my vote here.
In your opinion, what was the final year of his offensive prime? What about the final year of his defensive prime?
I would say offensively his prime ends after age 33 or so and defensively, although he ages better on that end to others, I would say around 32 (his peak at 94' due to his coaching system and roster imo).
Actually, I think his true defensive best was in the 80's when he was at his most athletic and he lead the league in Drtg for 5 consecutive years, as well as got a rebounding and some shot blocking titles. In comparison, neither Duncan or Shaq did that defensively and arguably had better defensive team support to make their jobs easier on that end as well.
I really wish we had team impact data or RAPM for that time period as I think it would really open people's eyes about him defensively.
I know you were interested in his younger pre peak years, so here's his footage so you can see the athleticism I'm talking about. He was a better athlete than Duncan imo and even though he wasn't as big, he was quicker laterally, more coordinated than Shaq and better defensively. (the first half or so is his younger years)
Thanks, I'll check out the video shortly. I've actually seen a good deal of him in the playoffs the first couple of years, and watched him live starting 92-93. I ordered his autobiography and it arrived a couple weeks ago, gonna try and read as much as I can tonight, and watch some of his playoff games from 87 through 91 tomorrow before casting my vote.
So just to confirm, you'd say defensively his prime ended around 95, offensively around 96?
Good, I'll try to provide more info as well to help. Give or take I'd say that's about right.
From the Shaq people, could someone provide statistics on Shaq in games without Penny and Kobe?
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters
Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
Baller2014 wrote:If Shaq was better than Duncan, why did he have less success in his career, despite: better team mates, a better peak, and a slightly longer prime? That's a simplistic question, but a telling one IMO.
Define less success specifically?
We know basketball isn't a one on one game.....same as strange to me why Duncan never won a DPOY award Doesn't make him any less of an elite defensive player though?
Duncan's teams exceeded or met expectations every year of his prime. Shaq's often didn't. That's it in a nutshell. Look at those talent heavy Lakers teams in 97-99. How were they losing every year? And there are plenty of other disappointments- 03, 04, etc.
I don't see how they really met expectations in 02, 04 or 06. 2nd round exits aren't accepted during a span where a team wins multiple championships.
Hmmm. I'm not prepared to consider Hakeem here just yet, so I think that maybe a Shaq argument is a pretty strong one.
Negatives ahead of time include personality issues, into which I don't put too much stock, regular-season missed games (which didn't generally affect his team's ability to contend) and a playoff performance record which isn't entirely flawless... which describes almost every player in the history of the game. His accolades were limited by his RS health, especially MVPs, and there's a great sense that he could have done MORE if his commitment to fitness/health was better, but that's not what we're judging him on IMO.
What DID he do?
He turned around an ass-tacular Orlando squad and took them to the Finals in his third season (not alone, naturally, but playing fantastic ball along the way). He was a scorer so dominant that we haven't really seen a ton of other players who've accomplished what he has.
Diesel is 20th all-time in career PPG despite his FT shooting woes and the slower era in which he played the bulk of his prime, and does have a pair of league scoring titles. He scored 29+ ppg on a season 3 times, 28+ two additional times, 27+ another two times and 26+ another three times. That's 10 years worth of 26+ ppg, and consecutively, at that. Shaq's actually been top 5 in PPG more times than anyone else except for Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan, FWIW, and only Kareem and Karl Malone have been top 5 in PER (that dreaded and largely useless stat) more frequently than Diesel. Only Kareem has been top 5 in eFG% more frequently. He's 8th on a list of players with the most top 5 rankings in WS/48 and all that despite being 10th all-time in career USG%.
He had the ball a lot, and he kicked the crap out of the opposition when he did, a thunderously dominant offensive player despite his critical weakness at the line. His career playoff PPG is higher than his career RS PPG and he's 18th on that list after a lengthy decline period during which he enjoyed far more longevity than people like to remember. We should recall that he was indeed an All-Star at the age of 36/37 with the Suns, for example. People get hot about Duncan's performance these past two seasons (during which he was a 17/10 player and 15/10), but 36 year-old Shaq (who turned 37 in the second half of that season) posted 18/8 in 30 mpg while leading the league in FG% at 60.9%.
MVP, 4 titles, 6 Finals appearances, 3-time Finals MVP, ROY... All-Star 15 times, All-Star MVP in 2000, 2004 and 2009 (at 37). 14-time All-NBA player. 7th in career MVP shares, with 8 top-5 finishes (including as late as 2005, when he finished 2nd). 3rd in NBA history in career FG%, leading the league 10 times and being top 5 another 6 times. 20 seasons of play, 19 of them mostly meaningful and an All-Star as late as his 18th season.
We've already seen people discuss his impact in terms of team offense, we've seen some great comparisons of his body of playoff work and the competition he faced, etc, etc. I won't go over that ground again.
What I'd like to see is some discussion of what people value. Duncan and Shaq have similar playoff resumes in the sense that they have lost in the Finals, they've won 4 or 5 rings, they've been the FInals MVP and also taken a backseat to another award winner... they've won as a primary offensive feature and as more of a decoy. Shaq's been to the Finals on three different teams and won titles with two, Duncan sticking with the Spurs the entire time. Shaq the clearly superior scorer, Duncan the obviously better defender.
I think that a discussion of these two aligns pretty nicely in terms of accolades, postseason team success and also a dominant attribute (offense vs defense, while both remain solid or better on the other end of the floor from their strength).
My vote here is for Shaq at the moment, but I"m very curious to see more of the Duncan/Shaq side of the debate.
What do expectations matter? The Spurs lost to teams that either went to the NBA Finals or outright won the NBA title. And what does SAS losing have to do with Tim Duncan?
Pay no mind to the battles you've won It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle Open your heart and hands, my son Or you'll never make it over the river
ThaRegul8r wrote:From the Shaq people, could someone provide statistics on Shaq in games without Penny and Kobe?
Not one of the Shaq groupie, but I will try to do it for games without Kobe. Penny only missed 5 games in '95 and played all 82 games in '94 and '96 so I don't think we will find much with those 5 games.
Although I didn't vote for Wilt, I'm somewhat glad we got him out of the way because of how unique he is historically. I think the run-off vote that almost cost Wilt the #4 spot shows how divided people are about how his talent translated into impact. I find it slightly odd yet pretty cool that Russell and Wilt rank #3 and #4 next to each other after all this analysis that we've done over the years.
My vote for the #4 thread was Shaquille O'Neal. There are some great arguments that I read on the other thread that made me question my choice. But I'm going to stick with my guns and choose SHAQUILLE O'NEAL mainly because of his consistently historic offensive impact combined with inconsistent but valuable defense.
LeBron/Magic/Bird/Garnett were all fantastic players. I've loved reading their arguments in the other thread. I think one of the most obvious things that this project has cemented for me is the fact that LeBron James is going to end up extremely high on this list when we do a RealGM Top 100 just 5 years from now. If he has Kobe/KG (HS-to-NBA) type of longevity, I think he could make a push for #1 or at the very least a Top 4 spot (adding another to the Russell/Kareem/Jordan tier). But as of right now I think he lacks a little longevity to be a Top 5 player on this list. The other 3 guys were all very tough to keep out as well.
So for me this came down to one of the most classic debates in RealGM Player Comparisons Board history... Hakeem vs. Shaq vs. Duncan
The arguments for Hakeem and Duncan over Shaq are obviously based around defense. Yes, these two were obviously more impactful defenders than Shaq over the course of their careers. Hakeem and Duncan are two of the Top 10 maybe Top 5 most impactful defenders in NBA history. And that goes a long way in this discussion. But I believe Shaq was a good enough defender to make up the gap because he was one of the great offensive forces in NBA history and did it with a unique and unstoppable style.
Shaq's regular season offense in perspective: 35.2 PP100 -- 16.1 RP100 -- 3.7 AP100 -- .586 TS% -- 26.4 PER -- 115.4 OWS -- 41,918 mins
DOMINANT individual statistics. An all-time great volume scoring big who combined historic volume with historic efficiency. The only players in NBA history with both a greater regular season PPG and TS% than Shaq are Durant/Kareem/Dantley. Durant is obviously a legendary scorer who we are witnessing do his thing right now. Kareem is obviously another legendary scorer but even he falls short of Shaq's PPG when you adjust the pace to 100. Dantley is the surprise on that list, but he's another guy who falls short of Shaq in terms of scoring volume when you translate the PPG to a pace of 100. So in reality only a still in his prime Kevin Durant is the only player in NBA history to be both a more efficient scorer AND be a higher volume scorer than Shaq.
Dantley was a player whose individual scoring never seemed to translate into a monster impact for his team. It's the reason why his name will be called very late in this project. Shaq on the other hand, always led ELITE defenses.
Let's call '93-'05 the prime of Shaq's career. I believe these were the seasons where he was the MVP of his teams. By 2006, Wade had taken over that role for the Heat although Shaq was still very valuable. And I understand that Penny and Kobe both had some fantastic seasons over this spread, but Prime Shaq was always the driving force of those teams through '05. This is how his team ranked in terms of ORtg all of those seasons...
So over a 13 year span that included 3 teams and 5 different coaches, Shaq's teams were always near the very top of the offensive food chain. The only year he was out of the Top 10 was when he was a rookie. The only other years his teams were out of the Top 5 were his 1st year with LA (still 9th) and in '04 when they were 6th. So unlike certain players in NBA history with great stats, Shaq's dominant individual scoring CLEARLY translated into enormous value on a team level.
Advanced RAPM metrics: Confirm obvious offensive impact https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/xrapm-points-above-average-91-14 -- colts18's site '91-'14 xRAPM Above Average: +3358.1 Offense --- 4th (LeBron, Stockton, Kobe) '97-'14 RAPM Above Average: +2738.8 Offense ---- 5th (LeBron, Dirk, Kobe, Nash) #1 Offensive RAPM several times over career Defensive RAPM is generally good to very good although not great
Basic individual stats, advanced individual stats, team rankings, etc... they all seem to agree on Shaq's greatness offensively. And although I didn't really mention defense too much in this post, they all seem to suggest that Shaq was clearly a positive defender albeit not a Duncan/Garnett/Hakeem/Robinson level defender.
Eye Test + Skillset + Individual Matchups issues: Based on the pure eye test, Shaq was one of the most unstoppable athletes I've ever seen. His ability to dominate the interior of the game was so valuable. In terms of 2-way value within 5ft of the rim, Shaq is the GOAT with only Wilt in the conversation. I love that dominant interior aspect about Shaq. Garnett's lack of dominance near the rim is why I do not believe it is time to rank him this high yet. When you had Shaq on your team, your team would have the edge near the rim. That's just such a valuable aspect of Shaq's dominance. And because he was so close to the rim, his offensive game was historically consistent.
There was also no style of defender that really bothered him. I guess a Wes Unseld/Moses Malone low to the ground powerhouse would be the ideal type, but even that's a guess because Shaq was so strong and long that we never truly saw him struggle against an opponents. Shaq/Kareem/Dirk are my GOAT offensive bigs and Shaq was easily the most "unguardable" of the 3 throughout his career.
Historical Uniqueness and Value: Kareem is really the only other GOAT-level Offensive Force + Very Good Interior Anchor type in NBA history. Whereas it is extremely hard to separate Hakeem from Garnett from Robinson from Duncan. Those guys are all GOAT-level Defensive forces who have certain question marks about their offensive games. It's just so tough to separate those guys. People say that Hakeem was a comparable Offensive Force to Shaq, but that was only for a couple of seasons. People could say that David Robinson was a comparable Offensive Force to Shaq, but that wasn't the case once the playoffs rolled in. People could never say Duncan or Garnett were on Shaq's level on offense.
I love the Hakeem/Duncan duo and it was tough to go against them. But I just simply believe Shaq was the more historically dominant player and worthy of this spot.
I added this to the "pro" side of the ledger for Shaq in my notes, but I have to dock you points for omitting the fact that, as basketball-reference clearly states:
Per possession stats available as of 1973-74 season
Therefore Kareem's 71-72 season in which he scored 34.8 ppg on 60.3% TS (the highest of any season with that volume) isn't included for him in his career per 100 possession stats. This is one reason I always confirm statements for myself.
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters
Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
ThaRegul8r wrote:From the Shaq people, could someone provide statistics on Shaq in games without Penny and Kobe?
Not one of the Shaq groupie, but I will try to do it for games without Kobe. Penny only missed 5 games in '95 and played all 82 games in '94 and '96 so I don't think we will find much with those 5 games.
Good point for the last. I should have actually checked to see how many games Penny missed with Shaq in the first place. You're correct that five games isn't meaningful enough to draw any conclusions from.
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters
Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
Clyde Frazier wrote:I don't see how they really met expectations in 02, 04 or 06. 2nd round exits aren't accepted during a span where a team wins multiple championships.
Go back and read my opening post on page 2. Duncan can't help that his team was outgunned, which it plainly was in 02 and 04.
As for 06, which I also mention in my OP: 1) Duncan went berserk that series, putting up crazy numbers 2) The series went to 7 games with 2 OT's, and if not for a dumb Manu foul they win the series. It was Parker who had a poor series that let the team down. 3) Duncan was not only on an outgunned team, he was on a team that was horribly unbalanced. There was zero big man support, literally zero. Duncan was starting next to 3 swing men and Tony Parker, and off the bench the big man support basically didn't exist either (here are the mpg totals for the next 2 bigs after Duncan; Horry got 16mpg, in which shot 250 from the field and 143 from 3pt land, and Oberto who got 6mpg, and played in only 3 games out of 7, Oberto shot 333. from the field). Duncan did everything that could reasonably be expected to get the Spurs over the line over a deeper and more balanced Mavs team.
I love how people are claiming Shaq outperformed Duncan, when in point of fact in their 5 playoff match ups during their primes Duncan was clearly the better player on the floor 3/5 times, and the 5th time is arguable given the circumstances. This includes 02, when they were predominately matched up against each other due to D.Rob's injury... again, this is all in my OP.
Meanwhile, look at all the underachievement from Shaq- 97-99, 03, 04, never mind other years that are very arguable too. Magic has 3 clear playoff let downs, against the Rockets in 81 and 86 and the Suns in 1990. And they weren't 7 game series with 2 OT's where Magic's outgunned and poorly balanced team lost due to his team mates incompetence either. For guys who were supposedly better than Duncan, they sure seemed to lose more series than they should have during their primes.
An Unbiased Fan wrote:Exactly how did Shaq exceed expectations more? Kobe did more with Pau, than Shaq + Penny, Van Exel/Jones, Wade.
Please explain.
Unfair to discount the titles Shaq won at his Peak just because Kobe was his teammate. 00/02 Kobe did not perform significantly better then 09/10 Gasol in the playoffs nor was he a significantly more valuable #2.
In regards to the old and boring "why didn't he win with Penny???" argument. The answer is competition.
The 95 Magic would wipe the floor with the 09 Magic. The 96 Magic would beat 2010 Boston.
The 09 Lakers would get smashed by the 95 Rockets. The 10 Lakers would get swept by the 96 Bulls.
O_6 wrote:So for me this came down to one of the most classic debates in RealGM Player Comparisons Board history... Hakeem vs. Shaq vs. Duncan
....
Shaq's regular season offense in perspective: 35.2 PP100 -- 16.1 RP100 -- 3.7 AP100 -- .586 TS% -- 26.4 PER -- 115.4 OWS -- 66.4 DWS* -- 41,918 mins
*added
Sorry to be a pain, but when you post stats like this for one player, would it be possible for you to also post the equivalent stats for the players you are comparing him to?
I'm interested in reading comparisons of the players, not marketing posts.
Same stats for Duncan so that all of the pertinent information is available to anyone deliberating:
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters
Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
ThaRegul8r wrote:I added this to the "pro" side of the ledger for Shaq in my notes, but I have to dock you points for omitting the fact that, as basketball-reference clearly states:
Per possession stats available as of 1973-74 season
Therefore Kareem's 71-72 season in which he scored 34.8 ppg on 60.3% TS (the highest of any season with that volume) isn't included for him in his career per 100 possession stats. This is one reason I always confirm statements for myself.
Just a quick calculation:
basketball-reference.com already has pace numbers for all seasons. For the playoffs, I just used this method:
Duncan's consistent defensive impact was also clearly superior to Shaq's, as Shaq started to take a lot of plays off and get lazy as his niggling injuries got worse post 2000. Phil Jackson complained about it a lot, and he wasn't alone. Shaq often wouldn't box out or would run up before the play was finished, letting the other team get a hustle basket. He would get lazy on switches and man D so he could roam about for a block. Duncan's D wasn't flashy, but it was a lot more consistently effective.
Doesn't make him any less of an elite defensive player though?
