RealGM Top 100 List #31

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#81 » by D Nice » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:18 pm

Moonbeam wrote:
Spoiler:
Chuck Texas wrote:Not sure why Kidd's lack of team success would bother you more than Paul's considering Kidd had 3 runs to the Finals and Paul hasn't even made a conference finals. Sure the West has been tough, but Kidd spent a lot of time there too. And say what you want about SRS and what not, winning 3 playoff series is never easy.

I really don't see your argument here at all.


It was a bit of a rushed post, so let me expound a little more. I've looked at comparing margin of victory with expectation (taking into account HCA) for Kidd's teams before his last stint in Dallas to come up with performance versus expectations, and here are the results:

Code: Select all

Year  Opp  Opp SRS   W  L  Margin  Vs. Expected
1997  SEA     6.91   2  3  -12.60    -5.39
1998  SAS     3.30   1  3   -7.50    -8.64
1999  POR     5.67   0  3  -10.33    -5.67
2000  SAS     5.93   3  1    1.25     1.94
2000  LAL     8.41   1  4   -7.60    -3.72
2001  SAC     6.07   1  3   -9.50    -6.06
2002  IND    -0.07   3  2   -0.20    -4.62
2002  CHA     0.57   4  1    4.00     0.22
2002  BOS     1.74   4  2    2.83     0.91
2002  LAL     7.15   0  4   -9.25    -5.77
2003  MIL    -0.24   4  2    4.33    -0.33
2003  BOS    -0.75   4  0   10.00     4.83
2003  DET     2.98   4  0    9.00     7.56
2003  SAS     5.65   2  4   -5.83    -4.61
2004  NYK    -1.97   4  0   12.75     8.91
2004  DET     5.04   3  4   -3.43     0.25
2005  MIA     5.76   0  4  -12.75    -5.17
2006  IND     1.62   4  2    3.67     4.18
2006  MIA     3.59   2  4   -6.40    -3.24
2007  TOR     0.61   4  2    5.33     6.94
2007  CLE     3.33   2  4   -1.67     2.66   


There's a clear pattern of team underperformance during the Phoenix stint. In fact, the only series that they outperformed expectations saw Kidd miss 3 of the 4 games. In 4 out of the 6 series, Kidd's teams underperformed by at least 5 points.

In New Jersey, the story is much better, but the 2002 Finals run still comes out as a net negative relative to expectations (-1.98 overall), while the 2003 Finals run averages out to a +1.00. By this metric, the best postseason performances relative to expectations actually came in 2004 (+3.39) and 2007 (+4.80).

It may be worth considering that perhaps Kidd's teams were overperforming in the regular season as opposed to underperforming in the playoffs, but that pattern is still there, though to be honest it is not as bad as I had remembered.

It's a simple analysis to be sure, as I haven't looked at what teammates or opponents missed games in these series, but it is something that has stuck in my mind.

I'll post the same analysis for Chris Paul later.

This analysis isn’t really telling us very much useful information when you’re comparing a team to how they themselves performed if the point is to find out if the team was overachieving period, and I think you’re aware of this (you sort of mentioned it). If there was a drop-off, all that tells us is that they weren’t over-performing their talent to the same degree that particular PS in comparison to that particular RS. There’s know way of “knowing” based on that data, since the baseline here is the team’s own RS performance. Unless you come up with a way of parceling out the difference it’s not really the indictment of J-Kidd you’re purporting it to be.

The same problems will be present with doing this for Paul’s teams. Seems more accurate to just look at what happened, who was on the roster, and who they were playing against. I suppose you could dig deeper by measuring their team offense drop-off against those particular opponents juxtaposed to the other teams that Kidd’s opponents played, but it’s still not really isolating the question of whether or not his teams were over performing or underperforming their talent. Perhaps some incorporation of WOWY data would strengthen the analysis? Not even really sure, just spitballing at this point.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

And arguments against Baylor based on being a top 5 player are very very weird. There Anti-Baylor cases to be made for sure, but not on the basis of his perennial standing in the league. As Beast noted he was top 5 or 6 virtually every productive season of his entire career. He wasn't seen as being very far off from Oscar by numerous contemporaries/historians. It's only recently there is this (perceived) huge separation between the two.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#82 » by penbeast0 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:32 pm

Jim Naismith wrote:
Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Then there's things like Baylor finishing 4th in 1961-62 voting despite the fact he missed much of the season and the team offense exploded over the prior year despite having far less from Baylor. It's just obviously wrong. He wasn't in the Top 10 in Win Shares that year in a league with 10-ish teams. The equivalent today would be a guy around 45th in Win Shares in a WS-friendly role getting MVP attention. Just wouldn't happen.


I understand the math. The point is how absurd it is, and that such a thing only comes from prior perception of the player...which is the same thing that led to Baylor continuing to stand in West's way for the next half decade.

Not absurd. And the same thing did happen again.

Bill Walton was #2 in MVP voting in 1977 and won MVP in 1978.

Walton was not in the top 10 for Win Shares in either year.

Bill Walton received little boost from "prior perceptions" since he wasn't even an All-Star in 1976.


The idea that Bill Walton didn't have a huge boost from "prior perception" is dead wrong. He didn't make all-star before because he never managed to stay healthy even 60 games any other years but he came out of college with GOAT expectations. And, his game was that level or close to it so he didn't lose those expectations. Virtually every preseason guide had him as a perennial MVP candidate and the successor to Russell, Wilt, and Kareem. Of course, Kareem stayed around long enough to be his own successor and Walton became the greatest "if only" story in NBA history but that was the perceptions. Any year Walton was healthy, he would have gotten a long MVP look based on his prior reputation.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#83 » by Jim Naismith » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:39 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:
Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I understand the math. The point is how absurd it is, and that such a thing only comes from prior perception of the player...which is the same thing that led to Baylor continuing to stand in West's way for the next half decade.

Not absurd. And the same thing did happen again.

Bill Walton was #2 in MVP voting in 1977 and won MVP in 1978.

Walton was not in the top 10 for Win Shares in either year.

Bill Walton received little boost from "prior perceptions" since he wasn't even an All-Star in 1976.


The idea that Bill Walton didn't have a huge boost from "prior perception" is dead wrong. He didn't make all-star before because he never managed to stay healthy even 60 games any other years but he came out of college with GOAT expectations. And, his game was that level or close to it so he didn't lose those expectations. Virtually every preseason guide had him as a perennial MVP candidate and the successor to Russell, Wilt, and Kareem. Of course, Kareem stayed around long enough to be his own successor and Walton became the greatest "if only" story in NBA history but that was the perceptions. Any year Walton was healthy, he would have gotten a long MVP look based on his prior reputation.


Do you think it's absurd that Bill Walton received MVP consideration in 1977 and '78? Even though he didn't crack top 10 win shares?

I don't. And the same applies for Baylor in 1962.

The top 10 win-shares cutoff in these cases is Procrustean.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#84 » by ronnymac2 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:42 pm

Vote: Isiah Thomas

He's one of the great playmakers of all-time, able to take on tremendous creative responsibility, and while his own individual production wasn't always efficient, the load he carried proved valuable to his teams throughout his prime. Frankly I'm more impressed by Thomas from 1984-1987, but his 1988-1990 years on a contender, though probably a tad overrated, are still stellar.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#85 » by trex_8063 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:33 am

Run-off vote: Jason Kidd.

Had nearly switched my primary vote to him anyway. Quoted below is my post specifically comparing Kidd and Paul and my conclusion bolded at bottom.

Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:On the topic of Kidd vs. Paul.....

If I were only comparing Kidd's best nine years vs. Paul (9-year career), I'd go with Paul. It's not even all that close, although nor do I think it's too terribly far. I wouldn't go with a metaphor like "by miles", for instance........let's say it's by a "football field or two".

As measured by advanced stats and per 100 numbers, Chris Paul's career is ahead of Kidd's best 9-year ('99-'07) stretch "by miles". A couple other points, though:
*Paul has missed 105 rs games; Kidd missed only 57 in that 9-year stretch (the difference is more than half of a season).
**Impact: I believe it was Chuck Texas who showed some compelling data showing that---although we can't put our fingers on exactly what it is about Kidd---teams seem to spontaneously get better as soon as he arrives on a team.....and just as quickly get worse the moment he leaves.
***Impact redux: I'm surprised the devotees of RAPM data aren't more readily getting behind Kidd.
Kidd during his peak years....
'02: 5th-highest combined PI RAPM in the league, behind only prime Shaq, PEAK Tim Duncan, and surprising results Doug Christie and rookie Tony Parker.
'03: 5th in league, behind only PEAK Tim Duncan, prime Garnett, prime Shaq, and again Doug Christie.
'04: 5th in league, behind only PEAK Garnett, prime Shaq, prime Duncan, prime Rasheed Wallace.
'05: 6th in league, behind only Manu Ginobili, prime Shaq, prime Duncan, and weird Jason Collins and Brad Miller results (AHEAD OF peak Dirk, MVP Steve Nash, prime Garnett, to name a few).

He's consistently right there with the big boys, largely only behind the guys who are the "gold standards" of RAPM greatness (all long since voted in).
In '08 (not even a top 8-9 season for him), his RAPM was +3.0, equal to that of peak Chris Paul.

Just adding up the yearly RAPM's, Paul's career adds up to +32.9.
If we were to take Kidd's best 9-year stretch ('99-'07), his adds up to +30.89. If, however, we were to pick and choose his nine best years by RAPM, his 9-year score is +33.89.



Again, I'm not suggesting Kidd's best nine years beats Paul's career. I don't pick and choose which players I'm going to only going to focus on impact data, and which I'm only going to on other metrics; I try to be consistent in using a combined approach. Impact data (and other impact indicators), however, is why I don't think the gap between Paul's career and Kidd's best nine is too huge.
Kidd then goes on to have 6 other years at at least borderline All-Star (if not legit) level, plus 4 solid role player years. Outside of '99-'07, he's got seven other seasons (every other year RAPM data is available) showing positive impact (PI RAPM outside of '99-'07 anywhere from +0.2 to +3.0 every single year). He was a principle role player on a title-winning team (played excellent in the playoffs, too). That's A LOT of added career value. For me, about 5 of the those additional AS or borderline-AS seasons brings him even with Paul's career. The other five years are Kidd pulling away, imo.

The more I look at Kidd, I've nearly convinced myself to switch my vote.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#86 » by penbeast0 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:42 am

Jim Naismith wrote:
Do you think it's absurd that Bill Walton received MVP consideration in 1977 and '78? Even though he didn't crack top 10 win shares?

I don't. And the same applies for Baylor in 1962.

The top 10 win-shares cutoff in these cases is Procrustean.


Win shares isn't one of the more accurate measures, particularly for individual defensive impact.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#87 » by Moonbeam » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:33 am

D Nice wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:It was a bit of a rushed post, so let me expound a little more. I've looked at comparing margin of victory with expectation (taking into account HCA) for Kidd's teams before his last stint in Dallas to come up with performance versus expectations, and here are the results:

Code: Select all

Year  Opp  Opp SRS   W  L  Margin  Vs. Expected
1997  SEA     6.91   2  3  -12.60    -5.39
1998  SAS     3.30   1  3   -7.50    -8.64
1999  POR     5.67   0  3  -10.33    -5.67
2000  SAS     5.93   3  1    1.25     1.94
2000  LAL     8.41   1  4   -7.60    -3.72
2001  SAC     6.07   1  3   -9.50    -6.06
2002  IND    -0.07   3  2   -0.20    -4.62
2002  CHA     0.57   4  1    4.00     0.22
2002  BOS     1.74   4  2    2.83     0.91
2002  LAL     7.15   0  4   -9.25    -5.77
2003  MIL    -0.24   4  2    4.33    -0.33
2003  BOS    -0.75   4  0   10.00     4.83
2003  DET     2.98   4  0    9.00     7.56
2003  SAS     5.65   2  4   -5.83    -4.61
2004  NYK    -1.97   4  0   12.75     8.91
2004  DET     5.04   3  4   -3.43     0.25
2005  MIA     5.76   0  4  -12.75    -5.17
2006  IND     1.62   4  2    3.67     4.18
2006  MIA     3.59   2  4   -6.40    -3.24
2007  TOR     0.61   4  2    5.33     6.94
2007  CLE     3.33   2  4   -1.67     2.66   


There's a clear pattern of team underperformance during the Phoenix stint. In fact, the only series that they outperformed expectations saw Kidd miss 3 of the 4 games. In 4 out of the 6 series, Kidd's teams underperformed by at least 5 points.

In New Jersey, the story is much better, but the 2002 Finals run still comes out as a net negative relative to expectations (-1.98 overall), while the 2003 Finals run averages out to a +1.00. By this metric, the best postseason performances relative to expectations actually came in 2004 (+3.39) and 2007 (+4.80).

It may be worth considering that perhaps Kidd's teams were overperforming in the regular season as opposed to underperforming in the playoffs, but that pattern is still there, though to be honest it is not as bad as I had remembered.

It's a simple analysis to be sure, as I haven't looked at what teammates or opponents missed games in these series, but it is something that has stuck in my mind.

I'll post the same analysis for Chris Paul later.

This analysis isn’t really telling us very much useful information when you’re comparing a team to how they themselves performed if the point is to find out if the team was overachieving period, and I think you’re aware of this (you sort of mentioned it). If there was a drop-off, all that tells us is that they weren’t over-performing their talent to the same degree that particular PS in comparison to that particular RS. There’s know way of “knowing” based on that data, since the baseline here is the team’s own RS performance. Unless you come up with a way of parceling out the difference it’s not really the indictment of J-Kidd you’re purporting it to be.

The same problems will be present with doing this for Paul’s teams. Seems more accurate to just look at what happened, who was on the roster, and who they were playing against. I suppose you could dig deeper by measuring their team offense drop-off against those particular opponents juxtaposed to the other teams that Kidd’s opponents played, but it’s still not really isolating the question of whether or not his teams were over performing or underperforming their talent. Perhaps some incorporation of WOWY data would strengthen the analysis? Not even really sure, just spitballing at this point.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

And arguments against Baylor based on being a top 5 player are very very weird. There Anti-Baylor cases to be made for sure, but not on the basis of his perennial standing in the league. As Beast noted he was top 5 or 6 virtually every productive season of his entire career. He wasn't seen as being very far off from Oscar by numerous contemporaries/historians. It's only recently there is this (perceived) huge separation between the two.


I'm not sure I understand the criticism of evaluating performance against expectations by looking at the team's regular season performance. It's a natural way to judge performance against expectations, I think, because the regular season performance dictates those expectations. I think everyone would feel that Washington's postseason performance last year was better relative to expectations than Indiana's, despite the fact that the Wizards lost to Indiana.

I concede that my analysis is blind to context, and that is what should be further investigated. I'd say that coaching is a big factor in playoff performance against expectations, as is health, experience and particulars of postseason matchups. Even then, it seems that certain teams have different levels of motivation that can further distort the picture. Some Chicago fans have claimed that the Bulls are especially successful in the regular season because of Thibodeau's exactitude, and it's pretty clear that some champions like the 3-peat Lakers coasted during the regular season.

Still, I think it's worth considering as a measure of how impressive or disappointing various postseason performances are.

And you're right about Chris Paul. I posted his teams' performance vs. expectations and they are almost as bad as Kidd's in Phoenix. It certainly brings up some question marks for me with regard to his postseason performance.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#88 » by Moonbeam » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:40 am

My runoff vote is for Chris Paul. Despite Kidd's sizable edge in longevity, I think Chris Paul has a big advantage in peak. I think I might have gone for another candidate over Paul, but I don't have a particular problem with him finishing at this spot.

I hold Kidd in less esteem than most, it seems. I'm not sure I'd include him in my top 50. I felt he was overrated during his playing career and never felt that he was that special (though still at least very good) when watching him play, whereas Paul's play has always jumped out at me.

This project has given me some new insight (Chuck's post about the impact of Kidd's arrival/departure on teams in particular), but I still think his is far too high for him.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#89 » by D Nice » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:51 am

Moonbeam wrote:I'm not sure I understand the criticism of evaluating performance against expectations by looking at the team's regular season performance. It's a natural way to judge performance against expectations, I think, because the regular season performance dictates those expectations. I think everyone would feel that Washington's postseason performance last year was better relative to expectations than Indiana's, despite the fact that the Wizards lost to Indiana.

I concede that my analysis is blind to context, and that is what should be further investigated. I'd say that coaching is a big factor in playoff performance against expectations, as is health, experience and particulars of postseason matchups. Even then, it seems that certain teams have different levels of motivation that can further distort the picture. Some Chicago fans have claimed that the Bulls are especially successful in the regular season because of Thibodeau's exactitude, and it's pretty clear that some champions like the 3-peat Lakers coasted during the regular season.

Still, I think it's worth considering as a measure of how impressive or disappointing various postseason performances are.

And you're right about Chris Paul. I posted his teams' performance vs. expectations and they are almost as bad as Kidd's in Phoenix. It certainly brings up some question marks for me with regard to his postseason performance.

I'm on my way out the door but very quicky, you're trying to answer the question "is this guy leading his team to overachieve relative to their talent." The problem with your analysis (and I appreciate the effort) is that it presuposes a team's RS performance is always what they should be achieving, then using that as a baseline for post-season overachievement. The piece your missing here is that there is no way of actually evaluating whether a team is over or underperforming their talent in the regular season. You could try using prior-year data as the base-line, but again, there's no way of knowing if they were overachieving to a degree of 3, for example, year 1 and simply to a degree of 1.5 year two. Your analysis would still read it as =EV in year one and -1.5EV ear two. Do you understand the distinction? This is also why your Paul data doesn't really mean what I think you think it means. All it is saying is playoffs had an equivalent impact on team performance drop-off for his teams as it did for Kidd's Suns. It does NOT mean his team was overshooting their talent (in terms of team offense) any more or less than Kidd's were. It's a self-relativistic readout.

It's nice to have when comparing a guys own team to itself in the playoffs, but you started out trying to answer the question "were Kidd's team offensive overachievers given their talent level in 2002 and 2003." Your analysis fails to answer THAT question because we have no (statistical) means of making that determination. This is why you have to have a good grasp of the quality of the individual moving pieces (teammates and opponents) here because there is no numerical way around that problem. I suggested using Elgee's WOWY numbers, because he's come closest to isolating this kind of problem, but it still isn't the whole picture.

I'll expound tomorrow if it's still not clear, but I think that explains the problem. Again, I appreciate the effort, there is utility there, just not for the "problem" you were trying to solve in that particular instance.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#90 » by trex_8063 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:52 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:I don't think there are any other players out there since 1960, who were Top 3 players over a 3 year period,
I think Baylor, Cowens, Gervin come close, and I'm sure one or two others.

I really like Cowens, but longevity hurts him.
Baylor is 3-5th best in a less competitive league
I do like Gervin


Baylor was
    #3 in 1959
    #4 in 1960
    #2 in 1961
    #4 in 1962
    #3 in 1963

This was in a league with Russell, Pettit, Wilt since 1960, Oscar and West since 1961.

Top-5 talent was more competitive in the early 1960s than the current NBA.


My first thought on this is that just listing out the competitors implies they were all at peak MVP competitiveness.

In the case of West for example, Baylor was literally in the way of West becoming the alpha superstar that was better than Baylor. So in the years you list Baylor beats West because West wasn't West yet, in part because of Baylor retarding that process. It's literally not an accomplishment.

Other guy? Pettit was older, Oscar was younger and not in the league the whole run, Wilt was erratic. It's not like this is the only era like this, but you can't just list the stuff out as if he was going into the teeth of the jungle the whole time.

Then there's things like Baylor finishing 4th in 1961-62 voting despite the fact he missed much of the season and the team offense exploded over the prior year despite having far less from Baylor. It's just obviously wrong. He wasn't in the Top 10 in Win Shares that year in a league with 10-ish teams. The equivalent today would be a guy around 45th in Win Shares in a WS-friendly role getting MVP attention. Just wouldn't happen.


You're pretty intent on lampooning any support Baylor gets, but I (again :sigh:) take issue with what seem like some misleading statements above (or at least some over-simplified linear logic)......

1) West wasn't West yet, and it's partially Baylor's fault.....
West was a young player in the years specified. You make it sound like he landed in the NBA a fully developed and mature ("peaked") player, and that it was simply Baylor's presence holding him back. Whereas I would suggest he simply needed a little time to mature (like nearly every other player in history).

In '62 Baylor misses 32 games and West's game appears to take a big jump forward. But let's not reach too hard for the "A happened, and B happened....therefore A caused B" type of linearity. How often do we see players get better in their 2nd year? Usually, as a matter of fact.

And if it was suddenly getting so much time away from Baylor that facilitated the surge in his game in '62.....why didn't he suffer a major setback in '63 when Baylor was back full-time?

And if Baylor and his ball-hogging is truly such a massive impediment to West's ability to fully impact the game......why is it that in '66---when Baylor a) misses 15 games, b) averages >10 minutes LESS per game than he EVER did previously, and c) is taking fewer shots when he is in the game---West's game does not take some giant surge forward? Baylor has to a large degree been moved aside, yet West's volume (relative to pace), efficiency, and general impact appear unchanged from the year before.
Or in '71 when Baylor is fairly literally gone completely, West's game is steady-state, too.

2) In '62 Baylor missed significant games and the Laker offense "exploded" under West......
It's true their offense did take a big leap forward that year. Again I just don't agree with "Baylor hurts their offense" angle you're trying to play here. For one, it's just a bit too much of the "A happened, and B happened, therefore....." kind of logic. West improved (and as I suggested above, I would contest more due to natural development that we USUALLY see from players in their 2nd year); also, Hot Rod Hundley (whose efficiency is beyond abominable, even for the era) had his role/minutes reduced by more than 30% that year. Jim Krebs, although just a low-volume role player, has by far his best offensive season. So there are multiple factors at play there, rather than just "Baylor missed games".

If it's Baylor holding back West and the offense---and it's this '62 season you want to cite as evidence of that----why is it that when in '63 and: a) Baylor doesn't miss a game, b) is taking a whopping 28.4 FGA/game, and c) West misses 25 games......that the Laker offense doesn't fall off from this "exploding" '62 offense under West? In fact, even relative to league averages---which as a whole the league avg ORtg went +2.3 from the year before---the Laker offense was +0.1 in '63 compared to '62.
Or how about in '66 (again: that's the year where Baylor misses 15 games, is playing barely over 30 mpg, and taking fewer shots per 100 possessions than he ever had in his career).....why didn't the Laker offense surge forward? In fact, relative to league average, if fell -0.4.

And I've cited before the Lakers offensive jump forward during Baylor's rookie season, too. Overall, I'll allow that Baylor's offensive impact perhaps sees it's maximum potential when he's the ONLY superstar on the team. Perhaps he doesn't co-exist next to another superstar as well as others. But that's not the same as saying Baylor hurt their offense (which appears to be your implication, and which several things I've cited above would imply is a highly questionable stance).

3) Pettit was old and therefore not terribly relevant competition......
Pettit was possibly at his absolute peak in '59, and '61 wasn't far behind imo. He was only 30 years old going into the last year cited (and still one of the hyper-elite players in the league that year).

4) Oscar was young, therefore not terribly relevant competition......
Oscar was that rare breed who was a superstar the second he stepped into the league. '62 was the remarkable triple-double year, and I think arguably his 2nd or 3rd-best overall year. '63 wasn't far behind.

5) Wilt was erratic, therefore not terribly relevant competition......
Perhaps a touch "erratic", though consistent enough to be posting numbers not seen before or since throughout the last four seasons cited.

And then there's Russell......

If you want to stick with the argument that Baylor got so rated in MVP voting because the same "status quo" thinking about Baylor that's been endemic to modern all-time rankings was effecting voters then, well.....that may be a valid argument.
But let's not slander or down-play the competition of the time: the top 5 were clearly pretty stellar in an all-time sense.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#91 » by drza » Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:44 am

trex_8063 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Spoiler:
My first thought on this is that just listing out the competitors implies they were all at peak MVP competitiveness.

In the case of West for example, Baylor was literally in the way of West becoming the alpha superstar that was better than Baylor. So in the years you list Baylor beats West because West wasn't West yet, in part because of Baylor retarding that process. It's literally not an accomplishment.

Other guy? Pettit was older, Oscar was younger and not in the league the whole run, Wilt was erratic. It's not like this is the only era like this, but you can't just list the stuff out as if he was going into the teeth of the jungle the whole time.

Then there's things like Baylor finishing 4th in 1961-62 voting despite the fact he missed much of the season and the team offense exploded over the prior year despite having far less from Baylor. It's just obviously wrong. He wasn't in the Top 10 in Win Shares that year in a league with 10-ish teams. The equivalent today would be a guy around 45th in Win Shares in a WS-friendly role getting MVP attention. Just wouldn't happen.


You're pretty intent on lampooning any support Baylor gets, but I (again :sigh:) take issue with what seem like some misleading statements above (or at least some over-simplified linear logic)......

1) West wasn't West yet, and it's partially Baylor's fault.....
West was a young player in the years specified. You make it sound like he landed in the NBA a fully developed and mature ("peaked") player, and that it was simply Baylor's presence holding him back. Whereas I would suggest he simply needed a little time to mature (like nearly every other player in history).

In '62 Baylor misses 32 games and West's game appears to take a big jump forward. But let's not reach too hard for the "A happened, and B happened....therefore A caused B" type of linearity. How often do we see players get better in their 2nd year? Usually, as a matter of fact.

And if it was suddenly getting so much time away from Baylor that facilitated the surge in his game in '62.....why didn't he suffer a major setback in '63 when Baylor was back full-time?

And if Baylor and his ball-hogging is truly such a massive impediment to West's ability to fully impact the game......why is it that in '66---when Baylor a) misses 15 games, b) averages >10 minutes LESS per game than he EVER did previously, and c) is taking fewer shots when he is in the game---West's game does not take some giant surge forward? Baylor has to a large degree been moved aside, yet West's volume (relative to pace), efficiency, and general impact appear unchanged from the year before.
Or in '71 when Baylor is fairly literally gone completely, West's game is steady-state, too.

2) In '62 Baylor missed significant games and the Laker offense "exploded" under West......
It's true their offense did take a big leap forward that year. Again I just don't agree with "Baylor hurts their offense" angle you're trying to play here. For one, it's just a bit too much of the "A happened, and B happened, therefore....." kind of logic. West improved (and as I suggested above, I would contest more due to natural development that we USUALLY see from players in their 2nd year); also, Hot Rod Hundley (whose efficiency is beyond abominable, even for the era) had his role/minutes reduced by more than 30% that year. Jim Krebs, although just a low-volume role player, has by far his best offensive season. So there are multiple factors at play there, rather than just "Baylor missed games".

If it's Baylor holding back West and the offense---and it's this '62 season you want to cite as evidence of that----why is it that when in '63 and: a) Baylor doesn't miss a game, b) is taking a whopping 28.4 FGA/game, and c) West misses 25 games......that the Laker offense doesn't fall off from this "exploding" '62 offense under West? In fact, even relative to league averages---which as a whole the league avg ORtg went +2.3 from the year before---the Laker offense was +0.1 in '63 compared to '62.
Or how about in '66 (again: that's the year where Baylor misses 15 games, is playing barely over 30 mpg, and taking fewer shots per 100 possessions than he ever had in his career).....why didn't the Laker offense surge forward? In fact, relative to league average, if fell -0.4.

And I've cited before the Lakers offensive jump forward during Baylor's rookie season, too. Overall, I'll allow that Baylor's offensive impact perhaps sees it's maximum potential when he's the ONLY superstar on the team. Perhaps he doesn't co-exist next to another superstar as well as others. But that's not the same as saying Baylor hurt their offense (which appears to be your implication, and which several things I've cited above would imply is a highly questionable stance).

3) Pettit was old and therefore not terribly relevant competition......
Pettit was possibly at his absolute peak in '59, and '61 wasn't far behind imo. He was only 30 years old going into the last year cited (and still one of the hyper-elite players in the league that year).

4) Oscar was young, therefore not terribly relevant competition......
Oscar was that rare breed who was a superstar the second he stepped into the league. '62 was the remarkable triple-double year, and I think arguably his 2nd or 3rd-best overall year. '63 wasn't far behind.

5) Wilt was erratic, therefore not terribly relevant competition......
Perhaps a touch "erratic", though consistent enough to be posting numbers not seen before or since throughout the last four seasons cited.

And then there's Russell......

If you want to stick with the argument that Baylor got so rated in MVP voting because the same "status quo" thinking about Baylor that's been endemic to modern all-time rankings was effecting voters then, well.....that may be a valid argument.
But let's not slander or down-play the competition of the time: the top 5 were clearly pretty stellar in an all-time sense.


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#92 » by RSCD3_ » Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:47 am

Vote for Chris Paul

Spoiler:
He has the highest peak left on the board

( besides bill Walton whose longevity prevents me from taking him here )

His prime seasons 08/09/11/12/13/14 are consistently high in win shares and PER

He was a legit MVP candidate in 08 and a fringe candidate in all the other years

He has performed well in the playoffs

Going from (RS) 18.6/4.4/9.9 on 47.2/35.7/85.7 ( all together 57.5 TS%)

To (PS) 20.6/4.8/9.7 on 47.8/38.0/81.8 ( all together 57.5 TS )

Increasing his volume while keeping the same efficiency and assists from the regular season and he was injured in more than one of those postseasons

He isn't in the Gary Payton / Walt Frazier tier defensively but he is one below it and his offense is one tier down from GOAT offensive PG's such as Nash and Magic. It's a great balance and he can provide a lot of " lift "



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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#93 » by Warspite » Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:48 am

Kidd or Paul will win with 3 votes from the entire panel? Either we have issues from the rules or from the voters.

3 freakin votes win....
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#94 » by drza » Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:52 am

Vote Jason Kidd

I went into a lot of detail on this comp last thread, which I'll repost. The cliff notes version is that, though unorthodox, Kidd at his best had an impact very similar to Paul at his best. Only Kidd has way more seasons of mega quality, while Paul still just doesn't have the years. Next time I'm likely to vote Paul higher, but this time Kidd still has him

drza wrote:Kidd vs Paul

Paul has been getting a lot of traction of late, so I thought I'd it time to do another modern-era PG comparison. Paul has arguably the best advanced box score metrics of any point guard in history, but does that mean that's how good he is? He's certainly the more...expected type of point guard than Kidd is. But as we already saw when comparing Kidd with Nash, Kidd packs a heck of a lot of impact into his unique approach. And of course, one did it for a lot longer than the other. So anyway, let's put them in the same place and see what happens.

Stylistics

Here's how I described Kidd's game in the comparison with Nash:
Spoiler:
Kidd, on the other hand, is seen as more of a misfit than an ideal as point guard. I say this because his J was limited enough that he was known as Ason Kidd as a young player. Thus, Kidd could never be the scoring threat to opponents that Nash (or, frankly, most point guards) could be. And it's not just that his jumper wasn't a strength (after all, as his career progressed he developed his 3-point shot enough to be (I believe) 3rd on the all-time made 3s list)...it's that he couldn't reliably score off the dribble or on the move outside of layups. This did limit his abilities as a half-court point guard, and also limited his ability to have individual take-over games as a scoring PG. But even with that said and that limitation placed front and center, Kidd was still high on the list of best offensive players in the NBA during his run (see the RAPM section below). He was an incredible floor general, also able to maximize the talents of his teammates and to set them up in positions to succeed. I remember reading the USA today back when Kidd was a high school senior, and them deeming him the #1 prospect in the country before he went to Cal because his court vision was ridiculous. He was outstanding at finding teammates off the bounce, and excelled at doing so on the fast break. Of course, even with that vision Kidd didn't have nearly the offensive impact that Nash had in Phoenix...but he DID also have a very strong defensive impact. Kidd was a great on-ball defender (especially against big guards), he was a monster defensive rebounder from the guard position, and he was also very disruptive in team defense. Thus, it is the combination of his offense AND defense that makes his impact comparable to Nash even at Nash's best in Phoenix.


As for Paul, I came across this old blog post that I made back in 2008 when I was talking about the 4-man MVP race between Paul, Kobe, KG and LeBron. While some is specific to 2008, a lot of it can be generalized to his career as a whole:
Spoiler:
Paul is like a master puppeteer on the court. He uses his knowledge of his own skills, his teammates’ strengths/weaknesses, and the weak spots of the opposing defense to control every aspect of the game with the ball in his hands. He has proven time and again that he is willing to take, and make, the big shot at the end of games but perhaps more importantly he is also willing to make the correct pass (as he did Wednesday night in setting up David West for the game winner). Paul is lightening quick with the ball in his hands, and his hands are perhaps even quicker on defense where he leads the NBA in steals. Paul elevates the play of his teammates by putting them in the best positions to succeed, which is why he is widely credited for the improvements of David West, Tyson Chandler, and Peja Stojakovic this season. Ultimately, his MVP candidacy rests upon where the Hornets finish in the Western Conference: if the Hornets are the number one seed out west, Paul could very well win the MVP. http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Fanta ... BBD213.htm


Because these were current players most of us got to see both of their primes, so we all have our eye-test to work with. Now, let's get into some numbers.

Box score comparison

Regular season, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Jason Kidd 1998 - 2007: 20.6 pts (50.8% TS), 9.6 reb, 12.9 ast (4.4 TO)
Chris Paul 2008 - 2014: 28.0 pts (58.5% TS), 6.2 reb, 15.1 ast (3.5 TO)

As expected, if we stop at the box scores then we might as well stop the fight early. Paul scored significantly more on way higher scoring efficiency, and also had more assists with fewer turnovers. The only area where Kidd has an advantage in the box scores is in rebounding, and the margins aren't massive in that category. The only thint to note is that Paul's prime only has 7 years to Kidd's 10, but if the difference between their impacts are accurately represented by the difference in these stats then I'd rather have the 7. After all, Paul is the active leader in win shares per 48 minutes (#1 overall, higher than LeBron, Duncan, Dirk, or any other modern player already voted in (in fact, he's 4th in history behind only Jordan, David Robinson and Wilt). So Paul's box score stat production is truly historic.

Impact Stats comparison

Top 10 three-year peak normalized RAPM among PGs (1998 - 2012*)
Spoiler:
(*I put the asterisk on 2012 because that is the last year in Doc MJ's spreadsheet, but obviously Paul continues to play through 2014 and is still in his prime. However, Paul's general +/- scores were much better from '08 - '12 (avg on/off +/- = +13) than from '13 or '14 (avg on/off +/- = +7.9) so I think it fair to assume Paul's 3 max years in RAPM are in the seasons covered by the spreadsheet.)

(Nash): +8.2
Paul: +7.9
(Blaylock): +7.9
(Stockton): +7.8
Kidd: +7.2
(Payton): +6.7
(Baron Davis): +6.3
(Tim Hardaway): +6.2
(Tony Parker): +5.2
(Sam Cassell): +5.1

I decided to make this a top-10 instead of just Paul and Kidd so that we could get perspective on the number scale. Paul has the advantage in 3-year peak, but it is a very small advantage. I mean, go back to what we saw with the box scores above, and we'd expect that Paul's impact should be blowing away the other point guards. Instead, he is just behind Nash (only one over 8) and among a group of four PGs (including Kidd) between 7 and 8.

So, let's look at how those numbers break down on offense vs defense.

3-year normalized ORAPM peaks
Paul +6.2
Kidd +4.9

3-year normalized DRAPM peaks
Paul +1.7
Kidd +3.5

Keep in mind that 3-year offensive and defensive peaks might not be in the same years. The trends here somewhat support expectation (e.g. Paul's better on offense, Kidd's better on defense). However, again I would point out scale. The box scores where Paul absolutely dominates the match-up are primarily offensive in nature. And the narrative would also suggest that Paul should be the MUCH better offensive player...Paul can create his own shot, call his own number for highly efficient points, and also create for his teammates with better raw assist numbers AND better assist/turnover ratio than Kidd. According to the boxes, one would expect that Paul should DEFINITELY be moving the scoring margin offensively much more than Kidd. But that's not what we see. Even with his broken jumper and inability to consistently be a scoring threat, Kidd STILL isn't much behind Paul in this respect. Perhaps it's Kidd's quick decision-making, perhaps he's a bit better at reading defenses and/or knowing his teammates' preferences...perhaps he's better at controlling the game pace and that is reflective...for whatever reason, despite what the boxes would suggest, Kidd's offensive impact is lesser but competitive with Paul's.

Then, on defense, Kidd has a clear advantage. Paul has an advantage as a strong defender, and his +1.7 3-year normalized DRAPM peak is very good for a point guard. But Kidd's +3.5 would be outstanding even for a wing, and is one of the bigger non-big man effects on record. So while rebounding might be where Kidd shines in the box scores, that isn't sufficient to reflect just how strong Kidd is on defense.

Playoffs by the box scores and +/- stats

Playoffs, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Jason Kidd 1998 - 2007: 20.6 pts (49% TS), 9.9 reb, 11.8 ast (4.3 TO)
Chris Paul 2008 - 2014: 28.5 pts (57.5% TS), 6.7 reb, 13.4 ast (4.1 TO)

Playoffs on/off +/- per 100 possessions since 2001
Kidd (career): +10.2
Paul (career): +6.2

Paul (NOK 08 - 11): +13.9
Kidd (NJ 2002 - 07): +10.2

I didn't put up my usual disclaimer/background on playoff +/- here that I've done several times throughout this project, but as I said you can find it in any number of my posts so far if you're interested. Anyway, I guess my big picture bottom line is that in the playoffs the box score and +/- dichotomy continues. Paul has ridiculous box score numbers that seemingly should blow Kidd out of the water, but when you start looking at how their presence correlates with scoring margin (obviously much less granular/reliable in the postseason than RAPM, but again I've posted the disclaimer a bunch of times) Paul looks to be excellent (but not lapping the field the way his box scores would suggest) while Kidd continues to exhibit as much non-box impact as any PG we've seen despite how unorthodox his game (and relatively underwhelming his box score influence).

Bottom line:

According to the box scores, Chris Paul is very (VERY) arguably the best point guard of all-time. According to the +/- studies Paul is still excellent, but not to the same extent as his box scores would suggest. According to the box scores Kidd should just not measure up, but the +/- scores in both the full season and the postseason say that Kidd over his career had almost as much impact in a given year as any point guard in the last 15 years at their very best, including Nash and Paul. Paul has a slight advantage in their top-3 years there...but it's small. Meanwhile, Kidd has a massive longevity edge. All things being equal I put peak over longevity, but all else ISN'T equal here, yet. Paul has a slight advantage at their peaks...Kidd has a huge longevity advantage with demonstrated major impact at every stop.

I wouldn't be surprised if in three years when we do this again, I have Paul over Kidd. I might even go far enough to say that I'd be surprised if I DON'T have Paul over Kidd in 3 years. But it's not yet the future. I think Kidd still belongs higher on the list than Paul does.

ETA: Vote: Jason Kidd
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#95 » by ronnymac2 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:37 am

Vote: Chris Paul

The dude has Kidd's generalship even if he lacks Kidd's Goat creativity and vision. The big advantage for Paul is that he's also an efficient scorer himself, able to create shots in the mid-range where he's a very good shooter. Kidd in my opinion was never a liability from downtown, but Paul is still better from there, too. Defensively, Kidd has a major edge, but Paul is above average. He's a complete player.

Paul is basically even with the guy I voted for, Isiah Thomas. He needs one more strong top-5 season to pass him totally, or else equal his all-star longevity. I love Kidd, but he doesn't match that career value in my opinion. Comes very close though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#96 » by Moonbeam » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:48 am

D Nice wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:I'm not sure I understand the criticism of evaluating performance against expectations by looking at the team's regular season performance. It's a natural way to judge performance against expectations, I think, because the regular season performance dictates those expectations. I think everyone would feel that Washington's postseason performance last year was better relative to expectations than Indiana's, despite the fact that the Wizards lost to Indiana.

I concede that my analysis is blind to context, and that is what should be further investigated. I'd say that coaching is a big factor in playoff performance against expectations, as is health, experience and particulars of postseason matchups. Even then, it seems that certain teams have different levels of motivation that can further distort the picture. Some Chicago fans have claimed that the Bulls are especially successful in the regular season because of Thibodeau's exactitude, and it's pretty clear that some champions like the 3-peat Lakers coasted during the regular season.

Still, I think it's worth considering as a measure of how impressive or disappointing various postseason performances are.

And you're right about Chris Paul. I posted his teams' performance vs. expectations and they are almost as bad as Kidd's in Phoenix. It certainly brings up some question marks for me with regard to his postseason performance.

I'm on my way out the door but very quicky, you're trying to answer the question "is this guy leading his team to overachieve relative to their talent." The problem with your analysis (and I appreciate the effort) is that it presuposes a team's RS performance is always what they should be achieving, then using that as a baseline for post-season overachievement. The piece your missing here is that there is no way of actually evaluating whether a team is over or underperforming their talent in the regular season. You could try using prior-year data as the base-line, but again, there's no way of knowing if they were overachieving to a degree of 3, for example, year 1 and simply to a degree of 1.5 year two. Your analysis would still read it as =EV in year one and -1.5EV ear two. Do you understand the distinction? This is also why your Paul data doesn't really mean what I think you think it means. All it is saying is playoffs had an equivalent impact on team performance drop-off for his teams as it did for Kidd's Suns. It does NOT mean his team was overshooting their talent (in terms of team offense) any more or less than Kidd's were. It's a self-relativistic readout.

It's nice to have when comparing a guys own team to itself in the playoffs, but you started out trying to answer the question "were Kidd's team offensive overachievers given their talent level in 2002 and 2003." Your analysis fails to answer THAT question because we have no (statistical) means of making that determination. This is why you have to have a good grasp of the quality of the individual moving pieces (teammates and opponents) here because there is no numerical way around that problem. I suggested using Elgee's WOWY numbers, because he's come closest to isolating this kind of problem, but it still isn't the whole picture.

I'll expound tomorrow if it's still not clear, but I think that explains the problem. Again, I appreciate the effort, there is utility there, just not for the "problem" you were trying to solve in that particular instance.


You raise some good points. However, I still feel that the best available baseline for setting expectations for the playoffs has to be the preceding regular season. I think it's the most reliable in determining a given playoff team's true level, aside from a few cases as mentioned in the caveat above. It's much more difficult to avoid "regressing to the mean" over the span of an 82-game season against every other opponent in the league than in smaller subsets of games (playoff series). Using previous seasons as a complement to the regular season may be a worthwhile endeavor, but certainly the preceding regular season should be most informative, no? It is after all the same team (barring in-season trades and/or injuries) that competes in the playoffs.

The bigger issue is how to parse out individual credit (or blame) for playoff performances, and I agree that it's a very difficult task. While I agree that WOWY is a good metric for isolating player impact, it is generally not possible to examine in most playoff settings. Kidd only missed playoff games in 2000 over the stretch I examined. Perhaps to account for mid-season trades and/or injuries, a replacement for whole-season SRS could be calculated using games with the playoff roster present (or at least the top X guys), but I think it would get messy when trying to calculate such a metric for all 16 playoff teams.

Ultimately, any statistical metric is subject to a wide number of assumptions that are likely violated to some degree. The numbers in my analysis taken at face value do indeed assume that expectations are determined by regular season SRS, and that things like coaching, varying levels of motivation and experience, and roster makeup have no impact on scoring margin. WOWY and +/- metrics assume that when a particular player is out, his team plays the same way (offensive and defensive sets, pace, etc.) as then he is in the game. Box score metrics also are host to a number of assumptions (pace being determined the same way for each team, the 0.44 factor for TS% being applied to everyone, assist, free throw, turnover and rebounding factors applied in the same way for every player in WS/PER). Despite this, I still think it's worthwhile to consider such statistics, subject to questionable assumptions though they all may be.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#97 » by tsherkin » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:49 am

trex_8063 wrote:See, I disagree. To me, this is romanticizing Zeke. He's easy to romanticize because of the dazzling handles and because he didn't shirk from the notion of a little hero ball (especially on a big stage; i.e. playoffs/finals), and he further had a couple of noteworthy epic games doing those things (though no one seems to remember the games where he went 5 of 14 or 6 of 20, etc).


So, a quick peak.

Isiah was never a particularly efficient scorer, I'll give you that. He was better than Kidd (52.1% TS on higher volume in his 20s, fell off VERY sharply in his 30s; Kidd's at 49.8% in his 20s and didn't improve much thereafter aside from his first two years with Dirk in Dallas).

More importantly, though, as an overall offensive player, he was a 110+ ORTG guy in three consecutive seasons (111, 115 and 113) from 84-86, while playing 37 mpg and posting 21.2 ppg and 11.9 apg with 2.9 spg, posting a 53.3% TS (though that's not strong relative to league average) and an average ORTG of 113.

FWIW, Kidd's career-highs pre-Dirk are 52.6% TS and 111 ORTG (he was at 110 and 111 in 06 and 07, the only seasons he managed that before Dirk). He was a 106 ORTG player in his pre-Dirk career (50.0% TS).

So these are just two numbers, and we know that RAPM does speak more highly of his offensive impact. This is dubious, given the generally poor offensive showing of his teams and his individually poor scoring, but reflective of the fact that he was certainly making his teams better with his savvy playmaking and control over the offense. There's at least that, and pretty much everyone is in agreement over his palpable defensive impact.

My point was that a younger Isiah Thomas was producing individual offense at a level Kidd never managed, and in the process, those Pistons teams were 1st (111.5), 9th (109.6) and 7th (109.0) in team offense. They did pretty well, far better than Kidd's teams over his career.


The best "younger Isiah" offensive season is '85, no? As Kidd's best overall offensive season (factoring both role and volume against efficiency) I'd probably go with '99.

'85 Thomas
Per 100 Possessions: 25.5 pts, 16.6 ast, 4.5 tov, on TS% that was -1.4% compared to league average.
22.2 PER, .173 WS/48, ORtg +7.1 compared to league average.

'99 Kidd
Per 100 Possessions: 21.9 pts, 14.0 ast, 3.9 tov, on TS% that was +1.6% compared to league average.
22.5 PER, .188 WS/48, ORtg +10.8 compared to league average.
fwiw, also had PI ORAPM of +3.64 (13th best in the league that year).

So to me, a statement like "Kidd dreamed of being as good on O...." just doesn't appear to carry a lot of truth.


This is mildly disingenuous, given that 99 was a lockout-shortened season with the lowest league-average TS% seen since the 76-77 season and a league average ORTG of 102.2. That's something which should be mentioned; we saw the same thing in 11-12, the other lockout season: offense was BRUTAL in that year, the lowest we'd seen since the nasty lows of the early 2000s, and for exactly the same reasons. So looking at relative production over a shortened sample size is a little dodgy as far as legitimacy of analysis. Remember that Kidd's Suns were a 105.8 ORTG team and they played 50 games.

I don't to be misconstrued as saying Kidd was some scrub, I mean I'm preparing to vote for him in the next 3-5 spots myself anyway because I generally respect what he accomplished as a player, but Isiah's peak offensive value was clearly higher than the best Kidd brought to the table in my view.

That said, I was being hyperbolic; the absolute apex of Kidd's offensive performance does resemble the low end of Isiah's peak, so clearly I was exaggerating "colorfully," to borrow Chuck's term. And of course, between the two, Isiah's actual peak value was only a season longer than Kidd's in terms of that high-end offensive production and they are otherwise quite similar in that regard, as Isiah stepped back from his volume playmaking role more and more under Daly's watch and the Pistons began to concentrate more on defense. The 84 Pistons were +3.9 relative to league average ORTG, but they still managed to swing around and be +3.0 in their first title season (and +2.5 when they met LA in the Finals in 88), and then fell off of a cliff thereafter. Isiah, FWIW, never shot 45%+ from the field after the 89 season, nor did he post 51%+ TS thereafter either. His individual scoring efficiency died after the first title and with that went the team offense as he also moved further and further below league average not just in scoring efficiency but ORTG. Of course, he was injured for nearly half the season in 91, had something of a bounce-back year in 92 (but still with the diminished efficiency) and was thereafter crap in his final two seasons.

I think his primacy on those teams is demonstrable, though obviously other factors abound, not the least of which is the presence/absence of Adrian Dantley, whose insane volume/efficiency combo should not be overlooked as a potential overturn of everything I just said, since he left halfway through the 89 season while managing 18 a night on over 61% TS / 122 ORTG.

TL;DR, I'm not kicking Kidd to the curb, I was using a bit of hyperbole to reflect the fact that peak Isiah was better than peak Kidd. A bit better at scoring, a bit better at creating for others. 84, 87 and 90 were all wicked playoff runs for Isiah, too, and he was a 111 ORTG player in the postseason if you ignore 92 (his last and injury-riddled season), which is comparable to Kidd's absolute apex RS performance pre-Dirk, let alone playoffs. Playoff performance is important, and Thomas definitely shined there to a greater extent than did Kidd in terms of offense.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#98 » by ardee » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:39 am

Ok so I don't know if people will be happy about my voting here but life has been crazy since I got back to college and I just got time to get through the project until now and really think about the rankings.

Given the fact that I'm late to the party with this thread, and really can't make my own (which would be Elgin Baylor), I'm going to go here:

Vote: Jason Kidd

Quite simply, I do think Paul was a better player at his peak (rather clearly so), but I do think Kidd's longevity advantage is also quite clear.

Now this is mainly because I'm not too high on Paul's Clipper years before '14. I think they were good, he was still probably the third best player in the league both years, but he closed to gap significantly this year and injuries aside, was almost right there at his '08 level. But '12 and '13, while really good, were not on the same level as '08, '09 and '14. So to me, he has 3 years where he's best in the league material, 2 years where he's a superstar but really only ranks that high because of the weakness of the league in those years (for example, '12 Paul would not be in the top 7 in 2008 or 2009 IMO), 1 year where he really is just a very good All-Star (2011), and and early longevity year (2007).

Meanwhile Kidd was among the best in the league 2002 and 2003 (just two ridiculously deep years, only reason I wouldn't say he was a lock for top 5. Wouldn't say he was '08, '09 or '14 Paul level but I don't think he was too far from '12 or '13, probably right there), then a string of years basically as good as '11 Paul or slightly better ('99-'01, '04) and a very underrated longevity stretch from '05 to '10 where he averaged 12-7-9 and shot 38% from three, and still provided very good defense at the PG position.

Kidd was a lot healthier in the Playoffs as well. Paul has been injured in the '09, '12 and possibly the '14 Playoffs (I don't know how accurate the rumors were). I know that people call the '02 and '03 East weak but I'll be damned if Kidd dragging those Nets to the Finals doesn't mean anything. I think defensively the two are about equal at their peaks but Kidd is definitely more consistent on that end.

I also think Kidd just looks like an easier guy to play with, more laidback. Paul's teammates IMO seem like they don't really like him, kinda like an Oscar syndrome.

I know that you can point out that Paul had 3 years better than anything Kidd ever had but I think if I used ElGee's SRS system and crunched some numbers, Kidd's extra longevity would win out in terms of 'overall goodness'.

So yeah, my vote is Kidd.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 -- Jason Kidd v. Chris Paul 

Post#99 » by RayBan-Sematra » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:18 am

VOTE : Kidd

Paul may have had the better Peak but Kidd has a sizable edge in longevity and is more proven as a playoff performer.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #31 

Post#100 » by penbeast0 » Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:23 am

tsherkin wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:See, I disagree. To me, this is romanticizing Zeke. He's easy to romanticize because of the dazzling handles and because he didn't shirk from the notion of a little hero ball (especially on a big stage; i.e. playoffs/finals), and he further had a couple of noteworthy epic games doing those things (though no one seems to remember the games where he went 5 of 14 or 6 of 20, etc).


So, a quick peak.

Isiah was never a particularly efficient scorer, I'll give you that. He was better than Kidd (52.1% TS on higher volume in his 20s, fell off VERY sharply in his 30s; Kidd's at 49.8% in his 20s and didn't improve much thereafter aside from his first two years with Dirk in Dallas).

More importantly, though, as an overall offensive player, he was a 110+ ORTG guy in three consecutive seasons (111, 115 and 113) from 84-86, while playing 37 mpg and posting 21.2 ppg and 11.9 apg with 2.9 spg, posting a 53.3% TS (though that's not strong relative to league average) and an average ORTG of 113.

FWIW, Kidd's career-highs pre-Dirk are 52.6% TS and 111 ORTG (he was at 110 and 111 in 06 and 07, the only seasons he managed that before Dirk). He was a 106 ORTG player in his pre-Dirk career (50.0% TS).

So these are just two numbers, and we know that RAPM does speak more highly of his offensive impact. This is dubious, given the generally poor offensive showing of his teams and his individually poor scoring, but reflective of the fact that he was certainly making his teams better with his savvy playmaking and control over the offense. There's at least that, and pretty much everyone is in agreement over his palpable defensive impact.

My point was that a younger Isiah Thomas was producing individual offense at a level Kidd never managed, and in the process, those Pistons teams were 1st (111.5), 9th (109.6) and 7th (109.0) in team offense. They did pretty well, far better than Kidd's teams over his career.


The best "younger Isiah" offensive season is '85, no? As Kidd's best overall offensive season (factoring both role and volume against efficiency) I'd probably go with '99.

'85 Thomas
Per 100 Possessions: 25.5 pts, 16.6 ast, 4.5 tov, on TS% that was -1.4% compared to league average.
22.2 PER, .173 WS/48, ORtg +7.1 compared to league average.

'99 Kidd
Per 100 Possessions: 21.9 pts, 14.0 ast, 3.9 tov, on TS% that was +1.6% compared to league average.
22.5 PER, .188 WS/48, ORtg +10.8 compared to league average.
fwiw, also had PI ORAPM of +3.64 (13th best in the league that year).

So to me, a statement like "Kidd dreamed of being as good on O...." just doesn't appear to carry a lot of truth.


This is mildly disingenuous, given that 99 was a lockout-shortened season with the lowest league-average TS% seen since the 76-77 season and a league average ORTG of 102.2. That's something which should be mentioned; we saw the same thing in 11-12, the other lockout season: offense was BRUTAL in that year, the lowest we'd seen since the nasty lows of the early 2000s, and for exactly the same reasons. So looking at relative production over a shortened sample size is a little dodgy as far as legitimacy of analysis. Remember that Kidd's Suns were a 105.8 ORTG team and they played 50 games.

I don't to be misconstrued as saying Kidd was some scrub, I mean I'm preparing to vote for him in the next 3-5 spots myself anyway because I generally respect what he accomplished as a player, but Isiah's peak offensive value was clearly higher than the best Kidd brought to the table in my view.

That said, I was being hyperbolic; the absolute apex of Kidd's offensive performance does resemble the low end of Isiah's peak, so clearly I was exaggerating "colorfully," to borrow Chuck's term. And of course, between the two, Isiah's actual peak value was only a season longer than Kidd's in terms of that high-end offensive production and they are otherwise quite similar in that regard, as Isiah stepped back from his volume playmaking role more and more under Daly's watch and the Pistons began to concentrate more on defense. The 84 Pistons were +3.9 relative to league average ORTG, but they still managed to swing around and be +3.0 in their first title season (and +2.5 when they met LA in the Finals in 88), and then fell off of a cliff thereafter. Isiah, FWIW, never shot 45%+ from the field after the 89 season, nor did he post 51%+ TS thereafter either. His individual scoring efficiency died after the first title and with that went the team offense as he also moved further and further below league average not just in scoring efficiency but ORTG. Of course, he was injured for nearly half the season in 91, had something of a bounce-back year in 92 (but still with the diminished efficiency) and was thereafter crap in his final two seasons.

I think his primacy on those teams is demonstrable, though obviously other factors abound, not the least of which is the presence/absence of Adrian Dantley, whose insane volume/efficiency combo should not be overlooked as a potential overturn of everything I just said, since he left halfway through the 89 season while managing 18 a night on over 61% TS / 122 ORTG.

TL;DR, I'm not kicking Kidd to the curb, I was using a bit of hyperbole to reflect the fact that peak Isiah was better than peak Kidd. A bit better at scoring, a bit better at creating for others. 84, 87 and 90 were all wicked playoff runs for Isiah, too, and he was a 111 ORTG player in the postseason if you ignore 92 (his last and injury-riddled season), which is comparable to Kidd's absolute apex RS performance pre-Dirk, let alone playoffs. Playoff performance is important, and Thomas definitely shined there to a greater extent than did Kidd in terms of offense.



I'd love to see a good Isiah v. Payton analysis; I think it's more comparable. You'd probably find that Payton is slightly the better scorer, Isiah gets more assists, and it comes down to defense . . . . .
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.

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