RealGM Top 100 List #32

[john248]

My official vote is for Clyde Drexler. Fantastic transition player and finisher. Good rebounder from his position and a solid passer. Inconsistent jumper brought some half court woes. Still though, he had a good all-around game and a nice long career.

TBH, not sure if I can vote Isiah this high. Heck, I'm not even sure he's better than Kevin Johnson where both put up similar numbers, but KJ was roughly 7% TS better and 10 ORTG points higher in their primes.

[Warspite]

Trex:

Relative TS??? Isnt that the ultimate participation trophy stat? I dont even know how to respond to that since it rewards bad players who play vs worse players and penalises good players who play vs great ones. I cant believe anyone would even use that stat. No person without an agenda would touch it. I have to wash my hands and brush my teeth every time I read relative TS its so disgusting. Calling relative TS flawed is the nicest thing I can say.

In my research Isiah in the playoffs is a different player and he is eff until his team is down or his teammates crack and then he goes into hero ball mode. He seems to have 1 game a series that he shoots under 40% and 1 game every series he shoots 60%. You can see how his teammates are doing by looking at Isiahs assists. Some nights he is double digits and others he has 3 and then you see his teammates are shooting like crap.

I guess you can argue that Pistons defense is so awesome that they bring Bird, MJ and Nique down to Isiahs level.

Looking at Isiah in the regular season he seems very streaky in that he has a great game or 2 and then pulls out a 3-15 night. Yet his teams SRS seems to be top5 every yr. So was it realy that much of a bad thing or is it that Isiah should be held to a higher standard? Like I said if Isiah had CP3s TS% Bird, Magic and MJ might not have any rings. Or maybe CP3 never played in 1980s rules vs Magic, Bird and MJ? Maybe CP3 would have stats that looked just like Isiahs if he played in that era under those rules? So again is it talent or era bias? At the very least its a bit of both and most likely its the rules.

Billups shot .415 for his career
Isiah shot .452 for his career

There really is no argument that Billups isnt a horrible shooter.

[JLei]

There really is no argument that Billups isnt a horrible shooter.

WHAT???

Over 40% of Billups attempts were 3 pointers where he shot a stellar 39%. His career eFG is 49.5% (very good for a guard Isiah's is 46.5%). Combined with the fact he got to the line much more than the average point guard and shot 89% almost 90% from there. He's anything but a horrible shooter.

Now you can say the function of where he was getting his shots were mostly spot up 3's vs. Isiah's creation and penetrating and that's where the difference is in terms of their offensive value/ goodness. But to call Billups a horrible shooter is ignorant.

[Quotatious]

WHAT???

Over 40% of Billups attempts were 3 pointers where he shot a stellar 39%. His career eFG is 49.5% (very good for a guard Isiah's is 46.5%). Combined with the fact he got to the line much more than the average point guard and shot 89% almost 90% from there. He's anything but a horrible shooter.

Now you can say the function of where he was getting his shots were mostly spot up 3's vs. Isiah's creation and penetrating and that's where the difference is in terms of their offensive value/ goodness. But to call Billups a horrible shooter is ignorant.

What he said is really sig worthy. I was looking for something nice to put in my signature, and it fits really well.

There's a reason why stats like TS% and eFG% exist. Raw FG% is extremely misleading if you want to evaluate a player's shooting ability. Isiah was generally a crappy jumpshooter, very inconsistent (his 3 pt and FT% are definitely below average for a PG - FWIW, he improved that in the playoffs, particularly his 3 pt.%, but it's still unremarkable).

Relative TS??? Isnt that the ultimate participation trophy stat? I dont even know how to respond to that since it rewards bad players who play vs worse players and penalises good players who play vs great ones. I cant believe anyone would even use that stat. No person without an agenda would touch it. I have to wash my hands and brush my teeth every time I read relative TS its so disgusting. Calling relative TS flawed is the nicest thing I can say.

In my research Isiah in the playoffs is a different player and he is eff until his team is down or his teammates crack and then he goes into hero ball mode. He seems to have 1 game a series that he shoots under 40% and 1 game every series he shoots 60%. You can see how his teammates are doing by looking at Isiahs assists. Some nights he is double digits and others he has 3 and then you see his teammates are shooting like crap.

Actually league average TS% during the 80s/early 90s and mid/late 2000s is very similar, so I think using the word "relative" isn't even necessary.

Relative TS% rewards "bad" players who play against worse players and penalizes good players who play against great ones? That's patently untrue, because like i've said before, league average TS% was about the same during Isiah's and Chauncey's primes, and an argument can be made that Billups actually played against better competition at PG in his era.

Zeke was in fact below average in terms of TS% and eFG%, looking at his career numbers. Billups is easily above average in TS% and slightly above average in eFG% in his era. Get over it.

Truly great players from Isiah's era (Jordan, Magic, Bird, McHale, Barkley, Malone, Hakeem, even English or Worthy) look really good in advanced stats, Thomas doesn't. It's certainly possible that advanced stats are wrong, but I have a feeling that eye-test and narratives tend to be wrong more often than stats.

This is NOT to say that Thomas wasn't a great player (I rank him in my top 40, and for example Billups around #60, so I'm still giving Zeke a clear edge), but I think he's a bit overrated.

I guess you can argue that Pistons defense is so awesome that they bring Bird, MJ and Nique down to Isiahs level.

That's not true. First of all, Nique wasn't much better than Isiah in terms of his scoring effiicency, to begin with, and even worse in the playoffs. Second, MJ usually played really well against the Pistons when it really mattered, in the playoffs - his worst playoff series against the Badboys was in 1988, when he averaged 27.4 PPG on 54.9% TS, 49% FG - that's really good - sure, worse than his RS standards, but definitely not bad. Then 29.7 PPG on 56.1% TS in 1989, 32.1 PPG on 56.6% TS in 1990 and finally 29.8 PPG on 64.6% TS in 1991. That's ALL above league average efficiency, combined with great volume. Considering that Chicago was always a clearly weaker team than Detroit (except for 1991), Jordan played very well.

Bird had that one horrible shooting series in the 1988 ECF, but other than that, he played at his usual level, against the Pistons (he was usually excellent against them in the regular season, and had a great, efficient series in the 1987 ECF).

[RayBan-Sematra]

VOTE : Drexler
Far more efficient scorer, better rebounder and he was a great playmaker himself.
Drexler also has a small but clear edge in total longevity.
I actually never realized what great longevity Drexler has. Seems like he had a good 13-14 quality years.

To be fair though I do understand Warspites argument.
Isiah was an amazing streak shooter so just looking at his pedestrian percentages may underrate him.
When Isiah had it going he could carry a teams offense like few others and even when his shot wasn't going down he would do a great job running the offense, getting others open looks and not turning it over.
Without more time to think it over though I will have to go with what seems like the most logical choice and vote for Drexler.

[trex_8063]

Trex:

Relative TS??? Isnt that the ultimate participation trophy stat? I dont even know how to respond to that since it rewards bad players who play vs worse players and penalises good players who play vs great ones. I cant believe anyone would even use that stat. No person without an agenda would touch it. I have to wash my hands and brush my teeth every time I read relative TS its so disgusting. Calling relative TS flawed is the nicest thing I can say.

There are a myriad of other factors that effect shooting% trends in the league: rule changes/officiating, 3-pt usage, offense schemes/strategies, defensive schemes/strategies, pace trends, etc.
Better (or worse) competition is merely ONE of the factors that can effect it. But even focusing on that one and only factor, what exactly are you saying? Are you saying the competition of the last 17 years has somehow been laughable compared to the competition of 1981-94?
Billups's career overlaps (often with his prime/peak roughly coinciding with, too) with that of Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Jason Kidd, Paul Pierce, Chris Paul, Tracy McGrady, Dwight Howard, Allen Iverson.......to name but a handful (could also mention Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Ray Allen, and some new guys like Steph Curry, Russ Westbrook, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, etc). EDIT: Also last 14 years (includes peak) of Shaquille O'Neal's career; also Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, Pau Gasol.
Not necessarily saying the competition was better, but......"Bad players/worse players"........please

But fine, if despite all of this you feel the need to power wash you hands/body and brush you teeth at the site of the words "relative TS%", let's just omit consideration of it (in truth, I actually only added the relative TS% category yesterday, when I realized I had players from as early as the ABA days (Gervin) and players as recent as Derrick Rose included in this study.......seemed necessary). There's still quite a collection of other measures: Isiah consistently comes out near the bottom in all.

Billups shot .415 for his career
Isiah shot .452 for his career

There really is no argument that Billups isnt a horrible shooter.

I won't use any "relative" stats .....

The one place where Thomas rates better: 2pt%.

Billups career/prime/single-season best 2pt%: .435/.439/.479 (twice)
Thomas career/prime/single-season best 2pts%: .465/.475/.501

So Thomas about 3% better on 2pter........But then there's 3pt%, where Billups is roughly 10% better:

Billups career/prime/best: .387/.399/.433
Thomas career/prime/best: .290/.284/.338

....which is pretty significant considering they constitute >40% of Billups's shot load. Here's how it translates into eFG%:

Billups career eFG%: .495
Thomas career eFG%: .465
Billups prime ('03-'11) eFG%: .505
Thomas prime ('83-'92) eFG%: .471
Billups single-season best eFG%: .533
Thomas single-season best eFG%: .498

And then there's FT% (where Billups outdoes him by ~13%):

Billups career/prime/best: .894/.899/.938
Thomas career/prime/best: .759/.770/.818

Which ultimately translates into the following TS%:

Billups career TS%: .580
Thomas career TS%: .516
Billups prime TS%: .595
Thomas prime TS%: .523
Billups best TS%: .619
Thomas best TS%: .554

If you still want to go with the "Billups is a horrible shooter" assessment after all of that, well then, I guess we're done.

[Clyde Frazier]

Runoff vote - Drexler

Glad to see drexler finally getting recognition.  It was surprising to see him basically get no mention over the last few threads (although maybe equally as surprising to see him balloon here).  I was going to vote for baylor, but held out undecided, and I ultimately think drexler was the better player.

Drexler was a uniquely talented player at the SG position, using his combination of size and athleticism to his advantage on both ends of the floor. Combine that with an excellent basketball IQ, and he was one of the more complete / versatile players we've seen in this league. While he didn't develop a reliable 3 pointer until later in his career (27% from 84-91 vs. 33% from 92-98 on larger volume), he had few flaws in his prime.

Let's look at Drexler vs. Isiah in their finals appearances.

DREXLER

90 (5 games) - ~26 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6 APG, 1.8 SPG, 54% FG, 17% 3PT, 76% FT, 60% TS, 118/108 OFF/DEF RTG

92 (6 games) - ~25 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1 BPG, 41% FG, 15% 3PT, 89% FT, 52% TS, 113/109 OFF/DEF RTG

95 (4 games) - ~21.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1 SPG, 45% FG, 15% 3PT, 79% FT, 56% TS, 126/111 OFF/DEF RTG

ISIAH

88 (7 games) - ~19.7 PPG, 4 RPG, 9 APG, 2.9 SPG, 43% FG, 29% 3PT, 83% FT, 52% TS, 106/105 OFF/DEF RTG

89 (4 games) - ~21 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 7 APG, 1.5 SPG, 48.5% FG, 33% 3PT, 76% FT, 55% TS, 117/113 OFF/DEF RTG

90 (5 games) - ~27.6 PPG, 5 RPG, 7 APG, 1.6 SPG, 54% FG, 69% 3PT, 74% FT, 63% TS, 116/104 OFF/DEF RTG

I've heard drexler get criticized here and there for not being able to get over the hump in his first 2 finals appearances. However, he went up against 2 great teams in the pistons (5.41 SRS ranked 4th) and bulls (10.07 SRS ranked 1st), more than holding his own in both series. When he went on the amazing championship run with no HCA in houston, he played a major role in their success. It was even more impressive to see him perform at that level toward the end of his prime.

Isiah is most known for his playoff heroics, and he certainly wasn't bad in any of his finals appearances. When you look at his career as a whole, he lacks longevity, wasn't an overly efficient scorer, and had a bit of an uneven career. That said, I happened to catch game 6 of the 87 ECF the other day, and we need to appreciate just how talented he was as a playmaker. The guy could get to any spot he wanted on the court, and with his small stature found angles in the paint that other players simply couldn't. He had elite ball handling, and while he wasn't the greatest shooter, there was always the threat of him scoring or passing. He was a special player.

At the end of the day, I think it's drexler's longevity, consistency, and all around skill set that gives him the edge over isiah.

[john248]

Isiah (6): Warspite, JordansBulls, ronnymac2, drza, DQuinn1575 (70), Jim Naismith (76)

Drexler (12): SactoKingsFan, Quotatious, Narigo, penbeast0, Chuck Texas (71), Moonbeam (74), trex_8063 (78), colts18 (79), Doctor MJ (80), john248 (81), RayBan Mematra (85), Clyde Frazier (87), magicmerl (72, explanation?)

[Owly]

vote: Drexler

Why? Better peak, better prime, longer extended prime, more career value, better metrics, fwiw ever got serious MVP consideration.

I wouldn't necessarily have gone Drexler here but I'm fine with it (and I wasn't sure amongst my preferences). With Pippen and Ewing in he's the next big percieved star from that time (IDK if better than Payton but more star power, more a conventional superstar; then looking at my databases Reggie's the next 90s guy on average - in published lists).

[trex_8063]

Isiah (6): Warspite, JordansBulls, ronnymac2, drza, DQuinn1575 (70), Jim Naismith (76)

Drexler (11): SactoKingsFan, Quotatious, Narigo, penbeast0, Chuck Texas (71), Moonbeam (74), colts18 (79), Doctor MJ (80), john248 (81), RayBan Mematra (85), Clyde Frazier (87), magicmerl (72, explanation?)

I voted for Drexler as well (post #78; just went back and edited it to large print).

[penbeast0]

Calling it for Drexler then . . . .