RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#81 » by Outside » Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:30 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:It almost feels like we've been watching different players. You think it's no slight, but you're placing him 2 tiers lower than he really is.

- His defensive impact measures to be above average. A guard like Oscar Robertson would have to be roughly a Jason Kidd level defender to equal Dirk's impact on that end. He can certainly be an important piece to a good defense, even if he's not an anchor.
- Dirk is #8 all time in RS Defensive Rebounds.
- #15 all time in Defensive Rebounding % in Playoffs - Right between Tim Duncan and David Robinson. I think your assessment on his rebounding is off by a good amount.

I can't reconcile those rebounding stats with actual rebounding numbers that aren't that great. Here's a comparison with the players you mentioned:

Dirk -- career 7.8 TRB average, averaged double-figures in TRBs 0 times
Duncan -- career 10.8 TRB average, averaged double-figures in TRBs 13 times
Robinson -- career 10.6 TRB average, averaged double figures in TRBs 9 times

Dirk was a better rebounder in the playoffs, with a career 10.0 TRB playoff average, compared to Duncan at 11.4 and Robinson at 10.6. But we shouldn't disregard the regular season numbers or focus solely on the defensive end where Dirk did well and ignore the offensive end where Dirk didn't do well.

As for defense, he benefits by being part of a good defensive unit and having very good defenders around him. Like you said, it almost feels like we've been watching different players, because when I've watched Dirk (not just recently but over his career), I've seen a guy who is good at team position defense but not a good individual defender and not good at blocks (0.9 per game RS and PS compared to 2.2/2.3 for Duncan and 3.0/2.5 for Robinson). The year the Mavs won the title, Dirk was 11th on the team in defensive box +/-. On his most successful teams, he was always surrounded by great defenders. I'm not saying he's James Harden bad, just that he's a below average defender.

Fundamentals21 wrote:- I think your post implies that it's somewhat of a soft game that limits the offense. He seems to have the agility to take bigmen off the dribble and take it straight to the basket. What here limits my offense from being great?- Pick and Roll/High Post - One of the best in any era.

He is excellent in the high post PnR, but that's not because he takes it straight to the basket. He either uses the screen for an outside shot or, if he rolls, most often drives partway and does his patented step-back. A 7-footer who takes only 14.4% of his shots inside 3 feet isn't a finisher. Compare that to Duncan, who took 30.9% of his shots inside 3 feet, and Duncan is a guy well known for his outside shot.

I never characterized it as soft. Dirk has competitive fire, and I'd never characterize him as soft. I'm just discussing what he does well and what he doesn't.

Fundamentals21 wrote:- Playmaking - How much is this hurting my offense? I give him the ball, what is going wrong for the rest of my team due to his lack of assist totals? What limited the teams he worked with? At most you need an Old Jason Kidd to provide additional playmaking? I don't feel my team's lacking anything because of this critique - it's certainly not a hole you will have a difficult time overcoming. Dirk plays the type of game that DOES allow teammates to have good years in Dallas - namely centers and even average to mediocre guards like Monta Ellis. He benefits his teammates immensely.

Of course Dirk is helping when he scores, and no, I'm not expecting him to be Jason Kidd. But there are numerous all-time greats who were very good in multiple areas, and there are numerous all-time bigs who were far better playmakers than Dirk. Karl Malone, despite playing with John Stockton the vast majority of his career, still averaged 3.6 assists. Tim Duncan averaged 3.0. David Robinson averaged 2.5, the same as Dirk. Kevin McHale, known as "the black hole" because once the ball went into him, it never came out, averaged 1.7 assists. Dirk's not a black hole, but he's not great in that area, either.

I'm just trying to fairly assess the guy, and that requires looking at all areas, not disregarding the ones he doesn't shine in because he's so good at what he does well.

Fundamentals21 wrote:- I actually think overall you're massively underrating his Midrange ability as a scorer. I don't know if allergic to the paint really makes sense here. It appears like you're criticizing him for his play style more than anything else. Dirk can take it to the paint, but the Midrange has to be where most of his shots come from, as the spacing opens up the entire offense. The center benefits, the open man in the corner benefits, a guard with a good drive game benefits, etc. What is my offense missing?

No, mid-range is what Dirk does best, so I'm not underrating that at all. By "allergic to the paint," I meant the extremely low percentage of shots he took within 10 feet -- 14.4% from 0-3 feet, 8.4% from 3-10 feet, which means a whopping 77.2% of his shots came outside of 10 feet. That is what it is. You can spin that to say that he creates spacing that opens up opportunities for others, which it does and I agree with, but spacing is not a benefit that trumps everything else, and you can't claim that he finishes well at the rim or draws free throws at an elite level or stuff like that when he doesn't.

It seems to me that those promoting Dirk as a candidate at this level are disregarding his weaknesses or using one view of the stats prism to overstate his impact in certain areas. To me, a fair assessment requires looking at everything.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#82 » by Outside » Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:44 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:Anyway, if that's your opinion then that's your opinion - but I would ask you to seriously reconsider. I mean, you can even take all the greats listed here over him.

Jerry West
Oscar
Dr. J
Barkley
D-Rob
Karl Malone
George Mikan

He's still around #20. How would you drop him to #33 below guys like Pippen? Dirk's clearly more proven as the franchise player?

The franchise player bit is a fair argument, and I can consider raising him because of that. Pippen was an absolute game-changer defensively who was also very good at scoring, rebounding, and assists. Six titles doesn't hurt, though it's not max credit because he wasn't the lead guy offensively.

Some people have mentioned 70/30 or even 80/20 splits in their emphasis of offense versus defense, but I am much more in 60/40 range with even higher emphasis for truly great defenders like Russell. Pippen's not Russell, but he had DPOY-level impact on the game.

I'm open to being swayed. As far as Dirk goes, I could move him up a few notches, but #20 seems a stretch.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#83 » by JoeMalburg » Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:45 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:

Not buying a word of it. It's solely the contrarian you which allows you to think so critically as to have this as a hobby that allows you to believe your own narrative was fostered by others and not created by you.


I've offered two pieces of evidence that you can double check. (1) MVP shares which show that during their careers, MVP voters valued David Robinson more highly, and (2) the most contemporaneous RealGM Top 100 list we have on record which shows that serious fans valued Robinson more highly 3-6 years after they retired. You offer . . . your opinion and say that your narrative was more widely shared. Let's see some evidence.


So you think evidence matters? Have you forgotten what year it is?

You've made your point perfect well, but I still think you know you're wrong.

Off the top of my head I'd say the following reasons contribute to my perception:

1) Barkley ranked higher in each addition of Slam magazines all time lists.

2) Barkley ranked higher on the Athlon top 50 list

3) Barkley ranked higher in Bill Simmons pyramid

4) Barkley was higher on the totem poll on the dream team. Basing this on the numerous books written about the team.

5) Barkley got the best of Robinson H2H in the '93 playoffs on one of the signature plays of his career

You're prepared to make a better argument, I'm not sure I can prove it. I just know what was happening as I experienced it. That was a different world though, not nearly as connected, my perception could be that alone.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#84 » by BasketballFan7 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:10 pm

wojoaderge wrote:
BasketballFan7 wrote:Fred Carter was another high volume shooter who ended up missing nearly the entire season.

Fred Carter was traded to the Bucks in order to relieve the logjam

Good info, thanks.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#85 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:44 am

JoeMalburg wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:Again I'll be brief (of necessity), and maybe say why NOT certain others......

Jerry West - not enough longevity/durability vs most other candidates. To a lesser degree the weaker (imo) era is a factor


Outstanding durability/longevity for his era. Had no control over when he was born. I find both criticisms entirely invalid.


Let me be clear I'm not saying his longevity/durability is lacking in a general sense, but only vs his competition for this spot; note I said "vs most other candidates". Of the other guys I mentioned (Karl Malone, Moses Malone, Barkley, Robinson, Erving, and Robertson), which of them actually has lesser longevity/durability than West (even with era considerations in play)? I would say David Robinson is the only one who is definitively lesser, and maybe Barkley.

Erving - came into pro ball 11 years later than Jerry (but still before massive improvements in sports medicine, shoes, etc), and played two more years, 311 more rs games, >8500 more rs minutes, had about 13 seasons of roughly "prime-level" play.......I don't think West has a longevity case there.

Vs Karl Malone.....duh.

Moses - came into pro ball 14 years after Jerry (slight advantage there), and only 11 seasons at prime-level; but played 21 seasons overall, 523 more rs games than West, nearly 13,000 more rs minutes. I just can't quite see the advantage for West there.

Robertson - came into the league the exact same year, played same position, played same number of seasons, roughly same number of prime years......but he played 108 more rs games and >7,300 more rs minutes ('cause was injured much less frequently than Jerry). Longevity/durability edge clearly goes to Oscar.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#86 » by feyki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:45 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:Again I'll be brief (of necessity), and maybe say why NOT certain others......

Jerry West - not enough longevity/durability vs most other candidates. To a lesser degree the weaker (imo) era is a factor


Outstanding durability/longevity for his era. Had no control over when he was born. I find both criticisms entirely invalid.


Robertson - came into the league the exact same year, played same position, played same number of seasons, roughly same number of prime years......but he played 108 more rs games and >7,300 more rs minutes ('cause was injured much less frequently than Jerry). Longevity/durability edge clearly goes to Oscar.


I strongly disagree. West had clearly better longevity, to me.

70 of them were from 74 season, which year Oscar wasn't even an all star candidate. Divide rest of the games to the amount of years, it's 3 games per year. West was second in the mvp voting while Oscar didn't make all nba teams in the 72. West was 6th in the mvp voting and Oscar wasn't an all star, very next year. Also, since 69, Oscar was on the decline while West was having his best years.

Longevity is the weak side of Oscar, to me. If He had West-type longevity, definitely would have him in the top 10. His Peak/Prime wasn't worse than Russell or Bird.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#87 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:32 pm

feyki wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:
Outstanding durability/longevity for his era. Had no control over when he was born. I find both criticisms entirely invalid.


Robertson - came into the league the exact same year, played same position, played same number of seasons, roughly same number of prime years......but he played 108 more rs games and >7,300 more rs minutes ('cause was injured much less frequently than Jerry). Longevity/durability edge clearly goes to Oscar.


I strongly disagree. West had clearly better longevity, to me.

70 of them were from 74 season, which year Oscar wasn't even an all star candidate. Divide rest of the games to the amount of years, it's 3 games per year. West was second in the mvp voting while Oscar didn't make all nba teams in the 72. West was 6th in the mvp voting and Oscar wasn't an all star, very next year. Also, since 69, Oscar was on the decline while West was having his best years.



The flip-side of this argument is that West in his rookie season was a 16.0 PER, .113 WS/48 "All-Star", 12th in MVP vote, no All-NBA honors. Oscar as a rookie was a 25.9 PER, .210 WS/48 All-Star (while playing like +7 mpg compared to West, too) who got All-NBA 1st Team and finished 5th in MVP vote.
Combine that with considerations such as West missing 25 games in '63, 15 games in '67, 31 games in '68, 21 games in '69, 51 games in '74 (and 13 games in both of '71 and '73, too); while Oscar, otoh, missed >15 games only twice (and never more than 18), more than 10 games four times.......idk, I'm still going with Robertson there.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #13 

Post#88 » by feyki » Mon Jul 17, 2017 3:57 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
feyki wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Robertson - came into the league the exact same year, played same position, played same number of seasons, roughly same number of prime years......but he played 108 more rs games and >7,300 more rs minutes ('cause was injured much less frequently than Jerry). Longevity/durability edge clearly goes to Oscar.


I strongly disagree. West had clearly better longevity, to me.

70 of them were from 74 season, which year Oscar wasn't even an all star candidate. Divide rest of the games to the amount of years, it's 3 games per year. West was second in the mvp voting while Oscar didn't make all nba teams in the 72. West was 6th in the mvp voting and Oscar wasn't an all star, very next year. Also, since 69, Oscar was on the decline while West was having his best years.



The flip-side of this argument is that West in his rookie season was a 16.0 PER, .113 WS/48 "All-Star", 12th in MVP vote, no All-NBA honors. Oscar as a rookie was a 25.9 PER, .210 WS/48 All-Star (while playing like +7 mpg compared to West, too) who got All-NBA 1st Team and finished 5th in MVP vote.
Combine that with considerations such as West missing 25 games in '63, 15 games in '67, 31 games in '68, 21 games in '69, 51 games in '74 (and 13 games in both of '71 and '73, too); while Oscar, otoh, missed >15 games only twice (and never more than 18), more than 10 games four times.......idk, I'm still going with Robertson there.


Oscar may have had a better durability (Also, I'm not much high on a few season games next to level of impact). But thinking their later years, West's longevity shines more than Oscar's one.
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