Peaks project update: #11

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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#81 » by E-Balla » Fri Aug 2, 2019 11:16 pm

ardee wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:I won't be considering Curry until the bottom end of the teens. He's proven his game is not even close to as Playoff resilient as guys like Kobe/Wade/Dirk (who are incidentally 12-13-14 for me). Also think 2011 Dirk has a case for the 12 spot as well.

Where's Dr. J on your list?
Early 20s. I don't rank ABA players, just don't have enough context, so 1980 is his peak for me.

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Do you rank NBA players from the late ABA, because the leagues were pretty evenly matched by then?
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#82 » by DatAsh » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:11 am

1. 04 Garnett - lead the league in RAPM, and APM by a huge margin. Probably one of my top 5 peaks ever. Also lead the league in most advanced box score metrics. Despite his reputation, his game holds up really well in the playoffs(see Elgee's breakdown) when you account for the competition he faced.

To be honest, while I'm a huge proponent of impact stats, I find that single season PI RAPM can be rather noisy(and I find single season NPI RAPM basically worthless), but he also leads the league in multi year impact studies. Looking at the 14 year(01-14) study, he's the highest ever, above even Lebron

01-14 RAPM(top 5)
-------

Code: Select all

Player         Off     Def      Tot
Garnett        2.4     7.3      9.7
Lebron         7.2     2.2      9.5 
Duncan         2.0     5.9      7.5
Paul           6.6     0.8      7.4
Dirk           5.2     2.1      7.3


He also leads in the 5 year RAPM study that's being used to redo BPM.

02-06
-------
Garnett: 10.9
Nowitzki: 8.9
Duncan: 8.8
Kirilenko: 6.9
Davis: 6.7

RAPM doesn't measure goodness(it measures impact), but given that most of Garnett's impact is coming from defense, and he's a good shooter, I think he's very scalable, and thus RAPM is probably a good measure of goodness for him. I think these multi year studies are very accurate for assessing impact, and I see his 04 season as the best year within that span.

2. 03 Garnett - Only slightly worse than 04, and also among my personal top peaks ever. For what it's worth, I have 03 Garnett over 03 Duncan.

3. 77 Walton - I personally have 77 Walton dead even with 77 Kareem, but since Kareem is already in, this slot was easy for me. Comparing Walton and Kareem's impact from that year(from the RPOY project).

Code: Select all

             Record    PPG      Opp PPG      Diff     Opp SRS   %Road Games
With Walton   61-21    112.0    102.9       +9.1
W/O Walton    31-51    103.0    106.7       -3.7       0.07     60%
Total Difference                            +12.6
         
With Kareem   52-30    111.9    107.8       +4.1
W/O Kareem    31-51    105.6    107.2       -1.6       0.03     48%
Total Difference                            +5.7


Other players coming up soon for me are 08 Garnett, Wade, Dr J, Oscar, and Robinson(though I have serious concerns about his playoff struggles).
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#83 » by trex_8063 » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:12 am

E-Balla wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:2nd ballot - '95 David Robinson
Don't know if this is a "dark-horse" pick for many at this stage, but the near-reality as I see is that David Robinson was asked [by the Spurs] to be Bill Russell on defense and simultaneously be Shaquille O'Neal on offense.......and he kinda takes some flack for not being up to the task [primarily in the playoffs]. But realistically, if he'd been consistently capable of maintaining his rs standard of offensive performance and efficiency during the playoffs, we'd have been discussing him in the top 3 positions of this project. So I don't think it's off base to give him some consideration now around #10.

But the biggest criticism of Robinson's whole career is specifically that he COULDN'T produce on that level both offensively as the primary option and defensively as the anchor in series when the going got tough.


I know, that's what I'm saying. If David Robinson had been capable of being arguably the best defensive player in the league (and on the short-list of greatest all-time) and simultaneously being capable of scoring 25-29 ppg on good efficiency as anchor of a good offense in the playoffs, we wouldn't be having this discussion here in the #11 thread.......because that hypothetical player would have been voted in somewhere around the top 3 of this project.

But he wasn't, and so we didn't. Now I'm wondering how just how far we go down the line before we give him consideration.
fwiw, if we removed the words "in the playoffs" from the description I laid out above, that DOES describe exactly what Robinson did in the rs in his best years. In the playoffs, his defense largely sustains, but his offense falls off to a point which is still fairly good in the grand scheme of things [though I recall we've disagreed in the past on semantics here]........like roughly the equivalent of what rs Patrick Ewing was doing [on average] ~'92-'96 (I don't recall people saying Ewing sucked offensively at that time).



E-Balla wrote:If Robinson has an argument based off his total impact and how much he'd impact the game hypothetically with someone else to lead the offense, how highly are you rating Draymond, Dwight, Zo, and other guys who are undeniably better defenders than him while still being top tier defensive anchors?


Wait, what? Undeniably better defenders? Or did you mean offensive players (since you repeat praise of their defense at the end of sentence)? I guess I won't agree with that statement either way (especially with the modifier "undeniably" added), actually.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#84 » by Lou Fan » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:43 am

Curry and Garnett in my opinion are the clear next two to go.
1. Garnett 04
I think this should've been in a few spots before this. I'd probably put him 6th. GOAT level defense solid first option on offense and all time level +- numbers and was one injury away from taking a mediocre Wolves team to the title.
2. Curry 17
GOAT tier offensive season. Stupid high effeciency scoring and gravity only second to Shaq.
Walton 77
Amazing passing and defense. It's a shame he had as many injuries as he did.
smartyz456 wrote:Duncan would be a better defending jahlil okafor in todays nba
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#85 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Aug 3, 2019 1:38 am

WarriorGM wrote:By the way, after looking at the selections 1-10, I don't think this can seriously be considered a plausible peaks project. It might just as well be called a run-of-the mill top 10 players list. A realistic peak list might see the same name more than once and not hew so closely to a generic top 10 list. As it is I think people are being swayed to rank peaks as they would a generic ranking list. It would have been better to come up with a top regular season peak list and a top playoffs season peak list and then combine them weighting the regular season and the playoffs as one wishes.


1. Not a great criticism when you do not bother to give an argument for why other players were clearly peaking higher. What, do you feel we have been unfair to Westbrook and his first round exit? Are you really taking Robinson in the playoffs over any of the top ten (apart from maybe Russell)?

2. Double the work with half the interest. Regular season is famously not too meaningful in isolation; who wants to quibble whether 2004 Garnett or 1994-96 Robinson deserve to be above Jordan when we know once the games actually matter, they are a tier below? And playoff sample sizes are so small it would become an absolute mess after the top ten or so. And spoiler: they would be basically the same names you see now. Which brings me to the next, and most pertinent, point...

3. The best players are considered the best because... they showed they were the best. There are plenty of players with better longevity than Magic or Bird or Russell; they are special because they were superstars for basically their entire career. Yes, thus far this is close to the overall ranking of this forum, because the top guys were the few to combine MVP seasons with dominant playoff runs. With apologies to Willis Reed, that seems like a pretty easy recipe for peak performance.

4. When you weigh playoffs highly, you tend to favour guys who won in their prime. What prime winners does it look like we will overlook in the next twelve or so spots? (Apart from the famously exceptional Pistons, I guess.) Robertson and Robinson, and kind-of West, will make it in without having won in their primes. Oh, and probably McGrady. That is it because playoffs, and playoff success, matter a lot. Yeah, maybe that is close to the GOAT project, but Karl Malone’s likely drop, and McGrady’s likely addition, do illustrate the differences. And this will become ever more apparent once we go through the title winners: Stockton will deservedly fall far below Harden and Westbrook, and I expect Isiah fans will receive some small amount of retribution for the frustration they felt with his overall ranking.

DatAsh wrote:2. 03 Garnett - Only slightly worse than 04, and also among my personal top peaks ever. For what it's worth, I have 03 Garnett over 03 Duncan.


If we were looking solely at the regular season, you might have a case. Fortunately, we are thus far weighing playoffs highly.

EDIT: Kind-of annoying to give special formatting to the quotation marks in the quotation code rather than just using “”.

EDIT2: Gregoire, I presume you will see this, so please note that I will be unable to respond to your private message until I stop being considered a new user.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#86 » by DatAsh » Sat Aug 3, 2019 2:27 am

liamliam1234 wrote:If we were looking solely at the regular season, you might have a case. Fortunately, we are thus far weighing playoffs highly.

EDIT: Kind-of annoying to give special formatting to the quotation marks in the quotation code rather than just using “”.

EDIT2: Gregoire, I presume you will see this, so please note that I will be unable to respond to your private message until I stop being considered a new user.


I agree playoffs make it closer, as Duncan was amazing in 03, but I still have Garnett ahead. I rank players by how likely they are to win a championship on a random team, so regular season play matters very little to me, as seeding doesn't effect championship odds all that much. I really only use regular season play as a larger sample size to contextualize playoff play, as playoff sample sizes can be small and extremely noisy.

Taking into account playoffs, I think 03 Garnett raises championship odds slighlty more than 03 Duncan, so I rate him higher, but it's very close, as Duncan had a better playoff streak.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#87 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Aug 3, 2019 2:52 am

DatAsh wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:If we were looking solely at the regular season, you might have a case. Fortunately, we are thus far weighing playoffs highly.

EDIT: Kind-of annoying to give special formatting to the quotation marks in the quotation code rather than just using “”.

EDIT2: Gregoire, I presume you will see this, so please note that I will be unable to respond to your private message until I stop being considered a new user.


I agree playoffs make it closer, as Duncan was amazing in 03, but I still have Garnett ahead. I rank players by how likely they are to win a championship on a random team, so regular season play matters very little to me, as seeding doesn't effect championship odds all that much. I really only use regular season play as a larger sample size to contextualize playoff play, as playoff sample sizes can be small and extremely noisy.

Taking into account playoffs, I think 03 Garnett raises championship odds slighlty more than 03 Duncan, so I rate him higher, but it's very close, as Duncan had a better playoff streak.


So Duncan had a better playoffs, and regular season is only important contextually, which is why... Garnett is somehow better.

You also did not give any actual reasons why Garnett supposedly raised championship odds more.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#88 » by DatAsh » Sat Aug 3, 2019 3:17 am

liamliam1234 wrote:
DatAsh wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:If we were looking solely at the regular season, you might have a case. Fortunately, we are thus far weighing playoffs highly.

EDIT: Kind-of annoying to give special formatting to the quotation marks in the quotation code rather than just using “”.

EDIT2: Gregoire, I presume you will see this, so please note that I will be unable to respond to your private message until I stop being considered a new user.


I agree playoffs make it closer, as Duncan was amazing in 03, but I still have Garnett ahead. I rank players by how likely they are to win a championship on a random team, so regular season play matters very little to me, as seeding doesn't effect championship odds all that much. I really only use regular season play as a larger sample size to contextualize playoff play, as playoff sample sizes can be small and extremely noisy.

Taking into account playoffs, I think 03 Garnett raises championship odds slighlty more than 03 Duncan, so I rate him higher, but it's very close, as Duncan had a better playoff streak.


So Duncan had a better playoffs, and regular season is only important contextually, which is why... Garnett is somehow better.

You also did not give any actual reasons why Garnett supposedly raised championship odds more.


Duncan edged closer based on the playoffs. I feel like both guy's regular season impact is fairly representative of their post season impact, unlike guys like Kawhi, Draymond, and Lebron the past 5 years or so.

I'm not trying to convince you, and I think most people would agree with you, I'm just explaining my reasoning.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#89 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Aug 3, 2019 3:20 am

I feel like you are not really explaining your reasoning though. Duncan consistently elevated (or at least maintained) in the playoffs, whereas Garnett did not. That is not a question of sample size. I would take Duncan’s average playoff from 1999 to 2007 over Garnett’s peak playoffs in 2003 and 2004.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#90 » by Mavericksfan » Sat Aug 3, 2019 3:22 am

DatAsh wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:If we were looking solely at the regular season, you might have a case. Fortunately, we are thus far weighing playoffs highly.

EDIT: Kind-of annoying to give special formatting to the quotation marks in the quotation code rather than just using “”.

EDIT2: Gregoire, I presume you will see this, so please note that I will be unable to respond to your private message until I stop being considered a new user.


I agree playoffs make it closer, as Duncan was amazing in 03, but I still have Garnett ahead. I rank players by how likely they are to win a championship on a random team, so regular season play matters very little to me, as seeding doesn't effect championship odds all that much. I really only use regular season play as a larger sample size to contextualize playoff play, as playoff sample sizes can be small and extremely noisy.

Taking into account playoffs, I think 03 Garnett raises championship odds slighlty more than 03 Duncan, so I rate him higher, but it's very close, as Duncan had a better playoff streak.


That’s very interesting

Do you have any data supporting the impact of seeding?

I thought HCA was a proven phenomena in sports.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#91 » by DatAsh » Sat Aug 3, 2019 3:28 am

Mavericksfan wrote:
DatAsh wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:If we were looking solely at the regular season, you might have a case. Fortunately, we are thus far weighing playoffs highly.

EDIT: Kind-of annoying to give special formatting to the quotation marks in the quotation code rather than just using “”.

EDIT2: Gregoire, I presume you will see this, so please note that I will be unable to respond to your private message until I stop being considered a new user.


I agree playoffs make it closer, as Duncan was amazing in 03, but I still have Garnett ahead. I rank players by how likely they are to win a championship on a random team, so regular season play matters very little to me, as seeding doesn't effect championship odds all that much. I really only use regular season play as a larger sample size to contextualize playoff play, as playoff sample sizes can be small and extremely noisy.

Taking into account playoffs, I think 03 Garnett raises championship odds slighlty more than 03 Duncan, so I rate him higher, but it's very close, as Duncan had a better playoff streak.


That’s very interesting

Do you have any data supporting the impact of seeding?

I thought HCA was a proven phenomena in sports.


HCA definitely matters, but not as much as most people think. I can't remember where I saw the stats. I remember Shaq was used as an example in some of his prime years to show how much him playing a full 82 games would have increased championship odds. I think it may be something ElGee posted in one of the old projects(maybe someone else can help). I'll see if I can find it tomorrow, but I'm about to go to bed tonight.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#92 » by E-Balla » Sat Aug 3, 2019 5:24 am

trex_8063 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:2nd ballot - '95 David Robinson
Don't know if this is a "dark-horse" pick for many at this stage, but the near-reality as I see is that David Robinson was asked [by the Spurs] to be Bill Russell on defense and simultaneously be Shaquille O'Neal on offense.......and he kinda takes some flack for not being up to the task [primarily in the playoffs]. But realistically, if he'd been consistently capable of maintaining his rs standard of offensive performance and efficiency during the playoffs, we'd have been discussing him in the top 3 positions of this project. So I don't think it's off base to give him some consideration now around #10.

But the biggest criticism of Robinson's whole career is specifically that he COULDN'T produce on that level both offensively as the primary option and defensively as the anchor in series when the going got tough.


I know, that's what I'm saying. If David Robinson had been capable of being arguably the best defensive player in the league (and on the short-list of greatest all-time) and simultaneously being capable of scoring 25-29 ppg on good efficiency as anchor of a good offense in the playoffs, we wouldn't be having this discussion here in the #11 thread.......because that hypothetical player would have been voted in somewhere around the top 3 of this project.

But he wasn't, and so we didn't. Now I'm wondering how just how far we go down the line before we give him consideration.
fwiw, if we removed the words "in the playoffs" from the description I laid out above, that DOES describe exactly what Robinson did in the rs in his best years. In the playoffs, his defense largely sustains, but his offense falls off to a point which is still fairly good in the grand scheme of things [though I recall we've disagreed in the past on semantics here]........like roughly the equivalent of what rs Patrick Ewing was doing [on average] ~'92-'96 (I don't recall people saying Ewing sucked offensively at that time).



E-Balla wrote:If Robinson has an argument based off his total impact and how much he'd impact the game hypothetically with someone else to lead the offense, how highly are you rating Draymond, Dwight, Zo, and other guys who are undeniably better defenders than him while still being top tier defensive anchors?


Wait, what? Undeniably better defenders? Or did you mean offensive players (since you repeat praise of their defense at the end of sentence)? I guess I won't agree with that statement either way (especially with the modifier "undeniably" added), actually.

Yes I meant offensive players. I'm mad because I lost this post once but let's go again.

First I want to address you saying Robinson in the playoffs was like Ewing's regular seasons. If anything he was worse that Ewing himself.

Against teams in the playoffs with a good (-2 to -4 DRTG) defense here's their averages.

Robinson (90-98): 21.0 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 topg, 51.7 TS%

Ewing (88-97): 21.2 ppg, 2.5 apg, 2.8 topg, 53.4 TS%

Against teams in the playoffs with an averaged (-2 to +2 DRTG) defense here's their averages.

Robinson (90-98): 23.6 ppg, 2.8 apg, 3.1 topg, 53.8 TS%

Ewing (88-97): 24.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.8 topg, 54.6 TS%

To me Ewing has a very slight, but clear, edge here so I feel like you should say Robinson compares less than favorably to Ewing period, not regular season Ewing. Then we can add in the fact that Robinson's defenses in series where he struggled offensively underperformed defensively.

Then we add in Ewing's absurd 1990 peak and I take him over Robinson for peak (Robinson gets it for career for what he did as #2 to Duncan IMO).

Then with those other guys I named you have:

1. We have playoff RAPM for both Draymond and Robinson as #2s. Draymond is tied for first with LeBron, and the 3rd in DRAPM (close to Robinson at first place, 3.9 vs 4.1) and Robinson from 98 on is 4th, but there's a gap between 3rd (Manu) and Robinson. Now I can easily believe peak Robinson would've been a better second option, but I don't think he would be as impactful as Draymond's offense has been to the Warriors. And he's a player who's offensive production in the postseason rises a ton, plus we've seen him and Klay without Curry look dominant still in Dray's peak year. I can easily see an argument he's more impactful as a #2 than Robinson, and if the argument is Robinson can be this high because of his impact if he would be a #2, I think Draymond shouldn't be too far behind.

2. Dwight is great. I actually put 2011 Dwight as the 3rd best player in the league that year. In 08-11 RAPM he's 4th, in a big bunch of players (Nash, KG, CP3, Dirk) under LeBron at 1. He was the 2nd best defender to KG at worst (I'd say he was better than KG some of those years), and a guy that averaged 20/14 on 63 TS% in the playoffs from 08-11. He was also 2nd in MVP in 2011 and of course won 3 straight DPOYs.

3. Zo unlike Dwight had a full offensive game. Then he has 99, a season where I think he was the 3rd best player in basketball, but only under 2 people already on here. He averaged 20/11 on +5 rTS% with 4 bpg, won DPOY, was MVP runner up (it was close too), and lead the league in RAPM. In the playoffs he played well, but they lost to the NBA Finalist Knicks that Robinson knocked off as a #2 to Duncan (who was dominant).

If strong +/- numbers from players that might not really be a #1 is your thing, these guys are more proven in the playoffs as #1s or in the case of Draymond #2s.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#93 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sat Aug 3, 2019 6:14 am

1. '95 D Rob
2. '16 Curry
3. '04 KG

4. '76 Dr J
5. '63 Oscar
6. '77 Walton
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#94 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Aug 3, 2019 6:45 am

E-Balla wrote:First I want to address you saying Robinson in the playoffs was like Ewing's regular seasons. If anything he was worse that Ewing himself.

Against teams in the playoffs with a good (-2 to -4 DRTG) defense here's their averages.

Robinson (90-98): 21.0 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 topg, 51.7 TS%

Ewing (88-97): 21.2 ppg, 2.5 apg, 2.8 topg, 53.4 TS%

Against teams in the playoffs with an averaged (-2 to +2 DRTG) defense here's their averages.

Robinson (90-98): 23.6 ppg, 2.8 apg, 3.1 topg, 53.8 TS%

Ewing (88-97): 24.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.8 topg, 54.6 TS%

To me Ewing has a very slight, but clear, edge here so I feel like you should say Robinson compares less than favorably to Ewing period, not regular season Ewing. Then we can add in the fact that Robinson's defenses in series where he struggled offensively underperformed defensively.

Then we add in Ewing's absurd 1990 peak and I take him over Robinson for peak (Robinson gets it for career for what he did as #2 to Duncan IMO).


This feels profoundly disingenuous when you do not bother to use any advanced metrics as support. It is akin to comparing peak Kobe with peak Wade and saying Wade definitively loses because he scores less.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#95 » by ardee » Sat Aug 3, 2019 11:44 am

Mavericksfan wrote:
ardee wrote:
Mavericksfan wrote:
He does have the 2017 season which imo should be considered his best overall.

Anchored the best team ever and his play improved in the playoffs.


Not gonna give him the same amount of credit as guys like I mentioned when he played with 1) a former MVP and the MVP favorite that year till his injury 2) the second greatest shooter of all time who sometimes detonates bigger than Curry himself does 3) a DPoY who is basically a point guard at PF and 4) a former Finals MVP.

Very different putting up pretty stats in a situation like that and what, for example, Dirk did in 2011. 2017 Warriors are the GOAT team no doubt but none of the players get too much credit because it's so divided.


If that’s the case I’m assuming Magic/Bird are further down your lists considering how stacked their teams were.

All the impact metrics we have point to Curry being the driving force behind that team. His combination of shooting and playmaking is rivaled by only Bird. Even when he misses games they struggle way more than when any other member is gone.


Compared to the 2017 Warriors, peak Magic and Bird's casts look weak. A Livingston/Klay/Iggy/Durant/Draymond lineup was arguably still top 2 in the league.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#96 » by ardee » Sat Aug 3, 2019 11:51 am

E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:
E-Balla wrote:Where's Dr. J on your list?
Early 20s. I don't rank ABA players, just don't have enough context, so 1980 is his peak for me.

Sent from my SM-G615F using RealGM mobile app

Do you rank NBA players from the late ABA, because the leagues were pretty evenly matched by then?


Nope, because the above is a subjective opinion.

I know people like to provide a lot of intricate explanations for it regarding the change in team and circumstances, but the fact is Erving's production dropped heavily from one league to another. At the end of the day, there have been other great players going to vastly different team situations and maintaining most if not all of their production. If LeBron could go from unipolar megastar in 2010 to being a part of a trio in 2011 and still maintain most of his RS production, why can't Erving? He had more capable teammates on his 1977 team but he was clearly still the best player on the team and should've at least come close to his 1976 production.

The most obvious explanation suggests that the drop was due to the fact that he went to a tougher league, which means his 1976 ABA season doesn't merit being ranked very high.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#97 » by Mavericksfan » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:09 pm

ardee wrote:
Mavericksfan wrote:
ardee wrote:
Not gonna give him the same amount of credit as guys like I mentioned when he played with 1) a former MVP and the MVP favorite that year till his injury 2) the second greatest shooter of all time who sometimes detonates bigger than Curry himself does 3) a DPoY who is basically a point guard at PF and 4) a former Finals MVP.

Very different putting up pretty stats in a situation like that and what, for example, Dirk did in 2011. 2017 Warriors are the GOAT team no doubt but none of the players get too much credit because it's so divided.


If that’s the case I’m assuming Magic/Bird are further down your lists considering how stacked their teams were.

All the impact metrics we have point to Curry being the driving force behind that team. His combination of shooting and playmaking is rivaled by only Bird. Even when he misses games they struggle way more than when any other member is gone.


Compared to the 2017 Warriors, peak Magic and Bird's casts look weak. A Livingston/Klay/Iggy/Durant/Draymond lineup was arguably still top 2 in the league.


I’m not so sure. The spacing in that lineup is a lot different even with Klay and Durant.

My biggest thing would be depth. Adding Durant stripped a lot of it and I don’t think Iggy/Livingston are 30+ mpg players for a full season at that point.

But I can see your point. I think 2017 Warriors are the most relatively stacked team besides maybe (big maybe) late 80s Pistons.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#98 » by 70sFan » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:13 pm

ardee wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:Early 20s. I don't rank ABA players, just don't have enough context, so 1980 is his peak for me.

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Do you rank NBA players from the late ABA, because the leagues were pretty evenly matched by then?


Nope, because the above is a subjective opinion.

I know people like to provide a lot of intricate explanations for it regarding the change in team and circumstances, but the fact is Erving's production dropped heavily from one league to another. At the end of the day, there have been other great players going to vastly different team situations and maintaining most if not all of their production. If LeBron could go from unipolar megastar in 2010 to being a part of a trio in 2011 and still maintain most of his RS production, why can't Erving? He had more capable teammates on his 1977 team but he was clearly still the best player on the team and should've at least come close to his 1976 production.

The most obvious explanation suggests that the drop was due to the fact that he went to a tougher league, which means his 1976 ABA season doesn't merit being ranked very high.


Then why other stars like Artis Gilmore, Billy Knight, David Thompson and Dan Issel didn't regress in NBA at all and some like George Gervin or Bobby Jones actually improved their production in NBA?
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#99 » by E-Balla » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:19 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:First I want to address you saying Robinson in the playoffs was like Ewing's regular seasons. If anything he was worse that Ewing himself.

Against teams in the playoffs with a good (-2 to -4 DRTG) defense here's their averages.

Robinson (90-98): 21.0 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 topg, 51.7 TS%

Ewing (88-97): 21.2 ppg, 2.5 apg, 2.8 topg, 53.4 TS%

Against teams in the playoffs with an averaged (-2 to +2 DRTG) defense here's their averages.

Robinson (90-98): 23.6 ppg, 2.8 apg, 3.1 topg, 53.8 TS%

Ewing (88-97): 24.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.8 topg, 54.6 TS%

To me Ewing has a very slight, but clear, edge here so I feel like you should say Robinson compares less than favorably to Ewing period, not regular season Ewing. Then we can add in the fact that Robinson's defenses in series where he struggled offensively underperformed defensively.

Then we add in Ewing's absurd 1990 peak and I take him over Robinson for peak (Robinson gets it for career for what he did as #2 to Duncan IMO).


This feels profoundly disingenuous when you do not bother to use any advanced metrics as support. It is akin to comparing peak Kobe with peak Wade and saying Wade definitively loses because he scores less.

And exactly what advanced metrics exist from 1988 and 1990 to be used here? How is it at all disingenuous to compare what are literally the only stats we have from back then (basic boxscore stats)? What else would you like to see here?

Also it's disingenuous to pretend Ewing only beats him in scoring, or that I didn't also list their assist and turnover numbers. And those questions aren't rhetorical, depending on what else you want to see I can pull the numbers for you, I guarantee they won't favor Robinson, I've been down this path before.
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Re: Peaks project update: #11 

Post#100 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Aug 3, 2019 12:34 pm

We have a lot more than just points/assists/turnovers/shooting available from 1988-90. It is not like we are talking about the 1950s here.

Robinson blows Ewing away https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Patrick+Ewing&player_id1_select=Patrick+Ewing&player_id1=ewingpa01&y1=1990&player_id2_hint=David+Robinson&player_id2_select=David+Robinson&player_id2=robinda01&y2=1995 in Win Shares, BPM... And that carries over to the postseason, despite his dips. If you look at the year to year top ten list for any of those statistics, Robinson is a perpetual leader in the regular season and still a reliable presence in the postseason; Ewing, on the other hand, only makes sporadic appearances in the back end of the lists. Now, those metrics are not perfect, but they say substantially more than points/assists/shooting, and in Robinson’s case they track well with the RAPM data we do have. To say nothing of their comparative WOWY values.

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