70sFan wrote:udfa wrote:70sFan wrote:
Thier shooting skills are much better than 1960s guards, but their slashing abilities would be minimalized due to stricter handling, traveling and offensive fouls offciating. Without adjustements, they wouldn't score that much. With adjustements, they would be great but I doubt they would average that many points. I mean, Elgin Baylor was extremely skilled and very athletic, he didn't mind shooting a lot either and he never averaged over 40 ppg. What makes them that much better than Baylor? Or West? Or Oscar? They gap is overblown by your post here in my opinion.
Baylor in his best scoring season shot .428 FG and .492 TS. He was able to average 38.3 PPG with those awful percentages because his team had a 123.3 pace, one of the slowest teams in the league at that time. Baylor averaged 33 FGA and 13 FTA. Wilt shot 39 FGA and 17 FTA. It was all you can eat back then. In Carmelo Anthony's highest volume season he averaged 22 FGA and 7.6 FTA and shot .476 (good enough for 5th in 1962) on 2s and .830 from the line (4th in 1962), neither career highs. Give him another 15-20 scoring opportunities and lower the height of the average defender by over 2" with reduced athleticism relative to modern defenders and inferior team defense, I think it's more than plausible to say he could average 50 PPG if that was his goal.
Yes, but that was Baylor playing only 48 games, he never shot over 30 FGA in full season. The closest he got was in 1961 and he averaged 34.8 ppg on 49.8 TS% (+2.9 rTS%). That's not close to 50 ppg.
Apologies for the delay, have been too busy lately to give you a decent answer.
Why does it matter that the season Baylor averaged 38.3 he only played 48 games? Baylor got his career high 38.3 PPG because he took a career high 33.1 FGA, not because he played "only" 48 games (as though it were 10 or 15 games).
But forget about the 62 season. 34.8 PPG is plenty to make my point. Baylor got that by shooting 29.7 FGA. That's simply an incredible number of shots for a player with 49.8% TS. Baylor didn't get that volume because he was some phenomenal scorer, he got it because his team averaged 124.9 possessions per game. If Baylor played today, even if he was allowed the same usage by his team (which he wouldn't, because he's incredibly inefficient) he would average 20% less in all rate stats simply because he's now playing games with 100 possessions on each side instead of 125. That 34.8 PPG immediately becomes 27.8 PPG at a modern pace. Now put LeBron into Baylor's place and give him 30 FGA/game against 1962 defenses. In 2008 LeBron scored 30.0 PPG on 21.9 FGA/game (he shot 31.5% on 3s so he would actually score slightly more if all his 3s were converted to 2s at 53.1%) on a 90.2 pace team. In Baylor's place he could have 40% more possessions each game. 2008 LeBron's Per 100 PPG was 39.6 and there would still be 25 possessions to go.
Pace is why all the rate stats from players in the 1960s are inflated. I have no doubt Wilt was a great scorer but there is a 0.0% chance he could average 40 PPG today let alone 50 PPG because he's going to be on the court for some 30 fewer possessions every game. When Jordan scored his career high in 1987 (37.1 PPG) it was with a 95.8 pace team. With 131.1 team pace like Wilt had in 1962, 87 Jordan would shatter Wilt's 50.4 PPG.
70sFan wrote:You use Carmelo 2P%, but even in 2000s two point shots are selected, most of them are at the rim. In the 1960s all of his shots, including heaves and buzzers, would be counted as twos. Not to mention that teams plays far longer to get good shot today - either you have more efficient offense or additional 15 scoring opportunities, you can't get it both ways. Carmelo in 2013 was less efficient than Baylor in 1961 relative to league average and I don't expect him to be above 50 TS% in 1962. He wouldn't have three point line, he wouldn't have his handles and he wouldn't have possibility to use his travel pivots.
Yes, modern players generally have better shot selection. That is one reason why they are much more efficient than 60s players, and it is something that would benefit modern players in playing that environment. The other reason is modern players are much better at scoring than 60s players. Better handling the ball, better jump shooting and finishing. Pace is not the main reason the old schoolers were inefficient. The main reason they were inefficient is they were comparatively bad at basketball.
The handles of the modern players would only be marginally reduced in effectiveness. Carmelo would destroy 60s players off the dribble, forget about Jordan, Kobe, LeBron, Iverson. It would be like Dream Team Jordan vs those Olympic defenses.
70sFan wrote:Why do you want to lower height of defenders by "over 2' on average"? That's ridiculous, Carmelo is 6'6.25 without the shoes, basically identical to Elgin Baylor (6'5.5 without the shoes). He wouldn't face 6'4 forwards:
Tom Heinsohn was 6'7 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Tom Sanders was 6'6 without the shoes - as tall as Melo
Tom Gola was 6'6 without the shoes - as tall as Melo
Tom Meschery was 6'6 without the shoes - as tall as Melo
Paul Arizin was 6'4 without the shoes - shorter (Gola or Meschery would guard him anyway)
Lee Schaffer was 6'7 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Dave Gambee was 6'6 without the shoes - as tall as Melo
Dolph Schayes was 6'8 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Willie Naulls was 6'6 without the shoes - as tall as Melo
Johnny Green was 6'5 without the shoes - shorter than Melo
Elgin Baylor was 6'5.5 without the shoes - shorter than Melo
Tom Hawkins was 6'5 without the shoes - shorter than Melo
Rudy LaRusso was 6'7 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Jack Twyman was 6'6 without the shoes - as tall as Melo
Bob Boozer was 6'8 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Bailey Howell was 6'7 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Ray Scott was 6'9 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Cliff Hagan was 6'4 without the shoes - shorter than Melo
Bob Pettit was 6'9 without the shoes - taller than Melo
Andy Johnson was 6'5 without the shoes - shorter than Melo
Charlie Tyra was 6'8 without the shoes - taller than Melo
That gives us an average of 6'6.5 among forwards with most minutes played in the league. Are you trying to tell me that forwards in 2013 were 6'9 without the shoes on average?
Carmelo Anthony is 6'6.25 without the shoes
LeBron James is 6'7.25 without the shoes
Kawhi Leonard is 6'6 without the shoes
Paul Millsap is 6'6.25 without the shoes
Danny Granger is 6'7.5 without the shoes
David Lee is 6'7.75 without the shoes
Trevor Ariza is 6'7 without the shoes
Matt Barnes is 6'6.75 without the shoes
Caron Bulter is 6'5.25 without the shoes
Udonis Haslem is 6'6.75 without the shoes
to name a few.
There is a difference in their height, but it's almost meaningless - half of an inch, maybe inch at best. Carmelo wouldn't tower over 1960s forwards, he would be normal sized forward for that time.
Carmelo was a bad example because there is an unusually high disparity between his combine height and his listed height. Aside from that, your comparison is terribly broken because you completely cherry picked the 2013 players instead of taking the 21 forwards who played the most minutes as you did for the 1962 players. Here are the 21 forwards who played the most minutes in 2013:
Kevin Durant 6'9
Paul George 6'7.75
David Lee 6'7.75
Luol Deng 6'7
LeBron James 6'7.25
Nicolas Batum 6'7*
LaMarcus Aldridge 6'10
Chandler Parsons 6'8.75
Rudy Gay 6'7
Josh Smith 6'7
Tayshaun Prince 6'9
Thaddeus Young 6'5.75
Zach Randolph 6'8*
Blake Griffin 6'8.5
Tristan Thompson 6'7.5
Paul Pierce 6'6
Carlos Boozer 6'7.75
Metta World Peace 6'5*
Ryan Anderson 6'8*
Serge Ibaka 6'9*
Carmelo Anthony 6'6.25
All players are listed here by their height without shoes measured at the combine except for the * players for whom I could find no height measurements without shoes and took their BBRef listed height minus one inch. The average height of the top-21 minutes playing forwards in 2013 without shoes is 6'7.5", and this number is far more likely to be lower than accurate than higher because most of these combine heights were measured at 18-20 years, an age at which some future growth is far more plausible than the average age 22 of the players from the 60s. Some guys here likely didn't grow at all, but some definitely did the best example being Durant.
This also assumes that all of those 1962 heights you listed are indeed accurate measurements which seems doubtful since only 1 player out of 21 is listed with a 0.5 inch. Compare that with 9 of the 16 players from 2013 (not counting those who don't have their w/o shoes heights listed) having a fractional inch. That suggests many of the 1962 heights are rounded, and it is standard to round up from 0.5
I didn't pull 2" out of thin air. Look at the league average heights by all seasons:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.htmlThe modern player height/weight is 6'7, 218# (weight has actually declined since 2013 when it was 223#) versus the 1962 player at 6'5, 205#. Furthermore, you can see there is a gradual progression in height and weight beginning from the earliest averages in 1952 and proceeding to the present, so unless measuring in shoes was also introduced very gradually and evenly that is not the answer to the gap. 2" and 13# on average is a huge difference, particularly when you consider that the bigger and heavier modern player is also faster and can jump higher. This shouldn't be anything shocking. People are taller now on average than 1962, and with modern strength training they're stronger, faster, more explosive and more agile at the same height as well. Just compare the height and weight of NFL players from 1962 to present. This is not a small difference.
Finally, as regards the effectiveness of modern players in 1962, just look at the tape side-by-side of Game 7 1962 vs Game 7 2016.
Come on, comparing these guys is a joke both in skills and athleticism. Both defense and offense in 1962 was amateur hour compared to today, and the only 1962 player who can compete with Jordan, LeBron, Shaq, etc., etc., in athleticism is Wilt. This isn't disrespect to the 1962 era players, they paved the way for the generations of NBA players who followed but as in all industries humans improved their basketball craft over the last 57 years. Not an insult, just reality.