Good points!falcolombardi wrote:Owly wrote:Onus wrote:That's the thing though you're asking players who aren't as good as lebron to do lebron things. Wade is probably the closest to Lebron and he was able to do it in 2011. But everyone says he fell off after 2011. Kyrie is a good offensive player, but he's not really able to generate points for others because he can always put up a shot. But he's nowhere close to Lebron especially iq wise and getting others shots. Are we really trying to argue that a Kyrie led offense is supposed to be elite, because we have years of evidence that it isn't.
Bosh and Love changed their games to be more of a spot up shooter than anything else, which is the biggest shame because they were actually really good players that were capable of more, but had to fit in to open the paint so the ball handlers had more space to operate with. Love was able to lead some pretty good offenses in Minnesota but he changed his body and game to play with Lebron. But when lebron was in they had incredible offenses so was it really the wrong thing to do, to optimize Lebron and Wade/Kyrie. Who knows? They obviously reached incredible heights.
I don't think anyone's asking other people to "do LeBron things". They're asking for teams to stagger their stars, continue to run some practice of non-LeBron-centric offenses (to the extent that was what was run), actually coach a team etc. And then either they did and his casts just weren't that good (my suspicion in general, without looking closely) or they didn't in which case I'd still be inclined to put that primarily on the organization, though some might theorize that LeBron actively prevents teams doing some of that stuff which ... beyond further playmaking not being a primary focus of resources, I'd need persuading on.
The best teams lebron was on -without- him on court were heat and 2020 lakers
The former had a high quality (understatement of the century) creator and offensive engine in wade, at least before the injuries
The latter had a excellent defense and a solid game director in rondo (diminished as he was he still could be a solid game manager)
The teams who struggled without lebron were the cavs two stints.
The former had only moderste offensive talent (mo, old ilgauskas, varejao) and lebron was also their defense anchor
The latter also was a weaker defensive team that needed lebron to lead the defense and had a bad primary decision maker in kyrie. A player who is better off as a scoring secomd option where he is not responsible for running the offense
If those cavs had someone like wall in kyrie place i suspect the "OFF" without bron would be a lot better than with kyrie
LeBron's Scalability Concerns
As I see it, there are two questions regarding scalability.
1. Does LeBron see diminishing returns when sharing the court with better talent?
2. When LeBron doesn't see diminishing returns, does it require playing with worse talent that would fall apart without him?
If the answer is yes to either of these questions (or if it's a bigger yes than Jordan), than that would be a case of scalability concerns which would limit LeBron's championship odds.
Let's look at 2-year regular-season/playoff on-off:
Spoiler:
Ranking by On-numbers:
09/10 >> [12/13] > 15/16 > 16/17 > 20/21 > 11/12 > 13/14 > [17/18]
Ranking by worse Off numbers:
[16/17] < 09/10 < 17/18 < 15/16 < [12/13] < 20/21 < 11/12 < 13/14
Ranking by LeBron’s overall On/Off:
09/10 > [16/17] > [17/18 playoff-only] > 15/16 > [12/13] > 20/21 > 17/18 > 11/12 > 13/14
Trends:
1. Does LeBron see diminishing returns with better teammates? I'd argue Yes!
Look at the on-numbers. Just like you said falcolombardi, LeBron's best teammates (when he was off the floor) were in his Miami Heat / LA Laker years. But in these years (20/21, 11/12, 13/14), LeBron's on-numbers are almost universally worse than his on-numbers with less talented teammates (in 09/10, 15/16, 16/17).
You might say that LeBron's Miami peak in 12/13 shows less diminishing returns. But... Wade is clearly starting to decline in 13 vs 11, and LeBron's on-court performance showed far more diminishing returns in 11 when he had his best Miami teammate. And even if 12/13 doesn't show as much diminishing returns as other Miami years, the on-court rating still isn't nearly as good on-court as 09/10.
You might say that LeBron's later years in 17/18 don't pop up in on-numbers despite the worse teammates, but these years are clearly dragged down by LeBron coasting in the 18 regular season.
2. When LeBron doesn't see diminishing returns, does it require playing with worse talent that would fall apart without him? Yes!
Look at the Off-numbers. In all of LeBron's better on-years on when he played "LeBron ball" (with the team building philosophy discussed previously), LeBron showed less diminishing returns when on-court but the teams universally fell off more without him.
In literally every year he had this team-building style, he had his best on/off numbers, but the boost is from his team having absolutely terrible numbers when LeBron's off.
So teams are left with two options:
-Surround him with better teammates, but face diminishing returns when they're on the court together.
-Surround him with less-talented (but better fitting) teammates, and face fewer diminishing returns when they're on the court together, but collapse in the minutes without LeBron.
These are the scalability concerns Ben's talking about. They suggest LeBron is the better floor raiser (less diminishing returns with worse talent that can't perform without him) but the worse ceiling raiser (more diminishing returns when playing with talent that can perform without him).
It's not shocking to me at all that LeBron/Shaq have a higher on/off. They're absolutely top Tier in on/off. What is surprising is that their team's performance with them on was as good as the GOAT-level Jordan Bulls, or that Jordan doesn't get more separation when looking at his on-court differential. He doesn't get this, inspire of his teams being clearly the best of the non-Curry bunch over a 5-year average... like the video suggests, the team's success does indeed seem more tied with teammates and less with Jordan than his Legend would suggest.
). I think you could actually use the data to argue the traditional argument... that LeBron's the better floor raiser while Jordan's the better ceiling raiser. While LeBron's teams do reach similar heights to Jordan's teams (though never quite as good, either in single-year seasons or longer 5 year samples)' while both are on, they completely collapse when LeBron is off in a way Jordan's teams never did.
