2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[Cavsfansince84]

EPO is unironically very dangerous actually lol

In medicine you only use it for people with severe anemia and aim to take them to a slight anemia instead (mostly kidney disease patients) because aiming to get them to normal blood levels is more dangerous than benefitial due to the effects of EPO (serious cardiac and blood cloth risk among other stuff)

I'm not trying to say epo is super safe either. Just that I think its more likely that nba players are using it over steroids(which is what people are constantly saying). I think they are using combos of lots of drugs as I stated above. Not at huge amounts but enough to give them a clear boost. I mean if epo were mostly safe it wouldn't have been banned in cycling since like the 80's but peds have been rampant since the 90's and no amount of testing ever will clean it up completely. More so given we know they don't want it that clean to begin with.

[EmpireFalls]

I’m actually out of excuses for this Cavs team being a fluke. Mobley’s 3 point shot development has unlocked their potential. I think they can win it this year.

[Special_Puppy]

I’m actually out of excuses for this Cavs team being a fluke. Mobley’s 3 point shot development has unlocked their potential. I think they can win it this year.

When I saw your name I thought you were going to bring up Jokic’s bad defensive performance tonight, but yeah. I had them as sleeper contenders pre-season and I’m happy that it looks like it will come true

[Peregrine01]

I thought the Celtics’ shooting was good but these Cavs…wow. If Mobley can make threes like this it might just be over.

[EmpireFalls]

I’m actually out of excuses for this Cavs team being a fluke. Mobley’s 3 point shot development has unlocked their potential. I think they can win it this year.

When I saw your name I thought you were going to bring up Jokic’s bad defensive performance tonight, but yeah. I had them as sleeper contenders pre-season and I’m happy that it looks like it will come true

I’m actually at the point of sympathy for Jokic, because as flawed as his individual defense is, the Nuggets team defense as a whole is absolutely laughable. Like, this perimeter defense would be an issue even with prime Duncan back there. Jamal and Russ POA defense makes me sick to watch and the young guys, while athletic, just don’t have the timing and crispness down to cover ground efficiently. What you end up with isn’t just bad because of Jokic warts - it’s atrocious in ways that can’t be attributed to him.

[GSP]

I’m actually out of excuses for this Cavs team being a fluke. Mobley’s 3 point shot development has unlocked their potential. I think they can win it this year.

Hes shooting 78% from the Ft line this season also when he was a career 68% Ft shooter before this season.......................thats showing his overall shooting just improved. Someone fixed something on his shot not just 3s either

[falcolombardi]

I thought the Celtics’ shooting was good but these Cavs…wow. If Mobley can make threes like this it might just be over.

Cleveland and knicks caught up to boston offensively while oklahoma set a new defensive standard

Exciting playoffs coming hopefully

[The-Power]

I’m actually out of excuses for this Cavs team being a fluke. Mobley’s 3 point shot development has unlocked their potential. I think they can win it this year.

When I saw your name I thought you were going to bring up Jokic’s bad defensive performance tonight, but yeah. I had them as sleeper contenders pre-season and I’m happy that it looks like it will come true

I’m actually at the point of sympathy for Jokic, because as flawed as his individual defense is, the Nuggets team defense as a whole is absolutely laughable. Like, this perimeter defense would be an issue even with prime Duncan back there. Jamal and Russ POA defense makes me sick to watch and the young guys, while athletic, just don’t have the timing and crispness down to cover ground efficiently. What you end up with isn’t just bad because of Jokic warts - it’s atrocious in ways that can’t be attributed to him.

Yeah, it's pretty clear that Jokic' flaws as a defender (which undoubtedly exist) are really put into spotlight because of how the rest of the defense is set up. The Nuggets needed to find the right pieces to fit around Jokic to have a crack at a top 10 defense. A couple good POA defenders and a bit more help defense around the rim. It's possible to do that but not something that is going to just fall into your lap. But alas, the FO failed to do that.

They could get away with an average to slightly below average defense (at least to a certain point) if they were at least putting good offensive pieces around Jokic. But they didn't even manage to do that well and so the offense does not look like it will be able to overcome the defensive limitations against good teams consistently. They are in a tough spot. I still think they can be an above average RS team that can play a couple tight playoff rounds but it's pretty clear that they'll need to shore up the roster if they want to seriously contend.

[Peregrine01]

When I saw your name I thought you were going to bring up Jokic’s bad defensive performance tonight, but yeah. I had them as sleeper contenders pre-season and I’m happy that it looks like it will come true

I’m actually at the point of sympathy for Jokic, because as flawed as his individual defense is, the Nuggets team defense as a whole is absolutely laughable. Like, this perimeter defense would be an issue even with prime Duncan back there. Jamal and Russ POA defense makes me sick to watch and the young guys, while athletic, just don’t have the timing and crispness down to cover ground efficiently. What you end up with isn’t just bad because of Jokic warts - it’s atrocious in ways that can’t be attributed to him.

Yeah, it's pretty clear that Jokic' flaws as a defender (which undoubtedly exist) are really put into spotlight because of how the rest of the defense is set up. The Nuggets needed to find the right pieces to fit around Jokic to have a crack at a top 10 defense. A couple good POA defenders and a bit more help defense around the rim. It's possible to do that but not something that is going to just fall into your lap. But alas, the FO failed to do that.

They could get away with an average to slightly below average defense (at least to a certain point) if they were at least putting good offensive pieces around Jokic. But they didn't even manage to do that well and so the offense does not look like it will be able to overcome the defensive limitations against good teams consistently. They are in a tough spot. I still think they can be an above average RS team that can play a couple tight playoff rounds but it's pretty clear that they'll need to shore up the roster if they want to seriously contend.

The value of POA defense is pretty glaring these days. You can have great rim protection like the Bucks do and still have a middling defense cause poor POA is constantly putting your defense in rotation. Was painful watching the Nuggets guards dying on screens again and again. Jokic playing the drop was also a disaster.

I don’t see this team doing anything unless something miraculous happens. The Cavs on the other hand looked like a legit 65-win team.

[OhayoKD]

I’m actually at the point of sympathy for Jokic, because as flawed as his individual defense is, the Nuggets team defense as a whole is absolutely laughable. Like, this perimeter defense would be an issue even with prime Duncan back there. Jamal and Russ POA defense makes me sick to watch and the young guys, while athletic, just don’t have the timing and crispness down to cover ground efficiently. What you end up with isn’t just bad because of Jokic warts - it’s atrocious in ways that can’t be attributed to him.

Yeah, it's pretty clear that Jokic' flaws as a defender (which undoubtedly exist) are really put into spotlight because of how the rest of the defense is set up. The Nuggets needed to find the right pieces to fit around Jokic to have a crack at a top 10 defense. A couple good POA defenders and a bit more help defense around the rim. It's possible to do that but not something that is going to just fall into your lap. But alas, the FO failed to do that.

They could get away with an average to slightly below average defense (at least to a certain point) if they were at least putting good offensive pieces around Jokic. But they didn't even manage to do that well and so the offense does not look like it will be able to overcome the defensive limitations against good teams consistently. They are in a tough spot. I still think they can be an above average RS team that can play a couple tight playoff rounds but it's pretty clear that they'll need to shore up the roster if they want to seriously contend.

The value of POA defense is pretty glaring these days. You can have great rim protection like the Bucks do and still have a middling defense cause poor POA

The Bucks team that saw their defense collapse by 7 points adding Jrue Holiday because Giannis packed it in the regular-season?

Why do you keep using the same team that suggests the opposite of what you're arguing as evidence?

[Peregrine01]

I thought the Celtics’ shooting was good but these Cavs…wow. If Mobley can make threes like this it might just be over.

Cleveland and knicks caught up to boston offensively while oklahoma set a new defensive standard

Exciting playoffs coming hopefully

Some of these offensive stats from the Cavs are ridiculous:

3pt FG%: 41% (1st in the league and 5% above league average)
2pt FG%: 59% (1st and +5%)
EFG%: 60% (1st and +6%)
TS%: 62% (1st and +5%)
ORTG: 122 (1st and +9)

4 of 5 starters are shooting more than 40% from 3. The lone guy who isn't is Jarrett Allen because he takes none.

It's crazy how much this team has flown under the radar. If the NBA actually tried to promote the best teams in the league instead of just name guys maybe the ratings would be better.

[OhayoKD]

Me thinks the "wemby shouldn't shoot 3's crowd" may have been misguided

edit: And I jinxed it

[Special_Puppy]

Yeah, it's pretty clear that Jokic' flaws as a defender (which undoubtedly exist) are really put into spotlight because of how the rest of the defense is set up. The Nuggets needed to find the right pieces to fit around Jokic to have a crack at a top 10 defense. A couple good POA defenders and a bit more help defense around the rim. It's possible to do that but not something that is going to just fall into your lap. But alas, the FO failed to do that.

They could get away with an average to slightly below average defense (at least to a certain point) if they were at least putting good offensive pieces around Jokic. But they didn't even manage to do that well and so the offense does not look like it will be able to overcome the defensive limitations against good teams consistently. They are in a tough spot. I still think they can be an above average RS team that can play a couple tight playoff rounds but it's pretty clear that they'll need to shore up the roster if they want to seriously contend.

The value of POA defense is pretty glaring these days. You can have great rim protection like the Bucks do and still have a middling defense cause poor POA

The Bucks team that saw their defense collapse by 7 points adding Jrue Holiday because Giannis packed it in the regular-season?

Why do you keep using the same team that suggests the opposite of what you're arguing as evidence?

The returning members of the 2020 Bucks supporting cast (as basically everyone not just Giannis) taking a step back defensively in 2021 (at least in the RS) is going to lead to a worse RS defense yeah.

After swapping Holiday for Lillard, they went from the best defense in the league in 2023 to the 16th best defense in 2024 which is what OP was talking about

[tsherkin]

Me thinks the "wemby shouldn't shoot 3's crowd" may have been misguided

edit: And I jinxed it

Bit of a misrepresentation, though, isn't it? Most people aren't saying he shouldn't shoot threes, just that he shouldn't shoot quite the VOLUME of 3s he's shooting. He's out there popping away like Steph... and even Curry is subject to some pretty significant variance as a result of the relatively-low raw percentage of a 3pt look from even an elite 3pt shooter. And Wemby isn't that.

He's good enough that 4, 5, maybe even 6 3s a game isn't a horrible idea for a host of reasons, but he's popped off double digits 10 times in 27 games, which is the cause for concern. And he's shooting LESS from inside the arc than he did last season as a rookie, despite shooting over 59% there. And while it marks an improvement for him specifically, it's also worth mentioning that he's shooting a shade under league-average 3P% while ranking 12th in 3PA. I understand SAS doesn't have a lot of talent, so there's some level of floor-raising going on. I understand that they're trying to develop the shot to open some different doors. I can even appreciate that they're trying to go easy on his body by not having him constantly grappling under the basket and all that, and that perhaps they're recognizing that guys can get into his base and under his center of gravity and he needs to be deployed in specific ways to be successful in certain spots on the floor at the moment. So they're trying to find other ways against certain matchups and all that, maybe, sure.

But 9.7 3PA/g remains a little wild to me.

[RCM88x]

Nuggets are really missing Aaron Gordon, I think that's really the biggest aspect here. He does a lot to cover Jokic's deficiency's and vice versa. They really don't have any other competent big on defense currently, combined with the poor POA defense, and yeah... I've always felt that as great as Jokic is, his teams live and die by the defensive competency of their 4 man. Gordon is far enough above competency that things usually work really well when he's available.

Cavs offense is just not sustainable imo, +9.1 would be one of the greatest rORTG marks ever. I don't think that will hold. My guess is they start to slide a bit as they play a tougher and more road heavy schedule (big aspect to their current marks IMO) and end up around +7 or +7.5. I would like to see their defense get a little better to balance that out, but we'll see on that.

Wemby; I think it really just comes down to average NBA fans coming to grips with the fact that an open 25ft shot is way better than a contested 8ft shot, even for a 7'6" guy. His style of play goes against many peoples basic understanding (incorrect) of the game. Plus, hes young, slim, and still developing. He just doesn't have the body type to pound the ball in the paint currently, maybe he'll get there eventually but with the way things are going maybe he doesn't have to.

[tsherkin]

Wemby; I think it really just comes down to average NBA fans coming to grips with the fact that an open 25ft shot is way better than a contested 8ft shot, even for a 7'6" guy. His style of play goes against many peoples basic understanding (incorrect) of the game.

This isn't really true, though.

A) Most people aren't really looking for Wemby to be taking 8-foot hooks out of a backdown, so it's a strawman
B) League-average shooting in heavy volume from 3 is only so good, and is highly inconsistent, which is an underdiscussed aspect of volume 3pt shooting which has specifically been the downfall of 3pt shooting teams and individuals

C) No one is really saying Wemby shouldn't shoot ANY 3s, just tone down the volume; he's at 9.7 3PA/g. Prior to this season, there are 22 player-seasons of 9.5+ 3PA/g from a guy playing 50+ games... and 8 of them are from Steph, 3 from Harden, 3 from Lillard. It's an outlier level of volume typically reserved for the best shooters in the game, or at least a guy like Harden who was supporting > 20 FGA/g AND smashing shots at the rim while drawing fouls all game long. He did it for 3 seasons (4, if you count the 9.3 3PA/g immediately preceding those years) and then settled back down when he wasn't rocking like 22-24 FGA/g for the Rockets.

So yeah, there's a little more substance and nuance to the debate around Wemby's 3pt shooting than you're providing here.

Wemby's shooting 35% on shots from 25+ feet this year, on 7.5 FGA/g. That means nearly 2/3s of the time, he's going to miss, and it's frequently harder to get an offensive rebound on those kinds of shots. That isn't good offense. The PAYOUT is higher when it goes, if you don't factor in foul draw and stuff like that, but that variance is going to causes rushes and droughts which are problematic.

Also, D) I think everyone is waiting to see what the specific strategy is in San Antonio, hoping that it's more than just "have the tall guy bomb 3s at around or just below league-average rates."

[RCM88x]

Wemby; I think it really just comes down to average NBA fans coming to grips with the fact that an open 25ft shot is way better than a contested 8ft shot, even for a 7'6" guy. His style of play goes against many peoples basic understanding (incorrect) of the game.

This isn't really true, though.

A) Most people aren't really looking for Wemby to be taking 8-foot hooks out of a backdown, so it's a strawman
B) League-average shooting in heavy volume from 3 is only so good, and is highly inconsistent, which is an underdiscussed aspect of volume 3pt shooting which has specifically been the downfall of 3pt shooting teams and individuals

C) No one is really saying Wemby shouldn't shoot ANY 3s, just tone down the volume; he's at 9.7 3PA/g. Prior to this season, there are 22 player-seasons of 9.5+ 3PA/g from a guy playing 50+ games... and 8 of them are from Steph, 3 from Harden, 3 from Lillard. It's an outlier level of volume typically reserved for the best shooters in the game, or at least a guy like Harden who was supporting > 20 FGA/g AND smashing shots at the rim while drawing fouls all game long. He did it for 3 seasons (4, if you count the 9.3 3PA/g immediately preceding those years) and then settled back down when he wasn't rocking like 22-24 FGA/g for the Rockets.

So yeah, there's a little more substance and nuance to the debate around Wemby's 3pt shooting than you're providing here.

Wemby's shooting 35% on shots from 25+ feet this year, on 7.5 FGA/g. That means nearly 2/3s of the time, he's going to miss, and it's frequently harder to get an offensive rebound on those kinds of shots. That isn't good offense. The PAYOUT is higher when it goes, if you don't factor in foul draw and stuff like that, but that variance is going to causes rushes and droughts which are problematic.

Also, D) I think everyone is waiting to see what the specific strategy is in San Antonio, hoping that it's more than just "have the tall guy bomb 3s at around or just below league-average rates."

I guess it depends on who you're arguing with, but I've seen a lot of discussion on other sites about this that aren't as nuanced as here.

I do agree with your point about the strategy SA intends to deploy and the general fan anxiety that goes along with it, hoping that it's something more exciting.

But I'll return the question, if we do agree he's shooting too many 3s, what shots should he be taking instead? Considering the current roster SA has, and the fact he's only 1/3rd of the way into his 2nd season?

[tsherkin]

I guess it depends on who you're arguing with, but I've seen a lot of discussion on other sites about this that aren't as nuanced as here.

Suuuure, but depending on what group you're talking about, you may be referencing a bunch of useless oxygen thieves. And probably are. So their opinions are of questionable value, since they can often be written off as ignorant nonsense to begin with. This is especially true if it's "common conversation" or reddit or whatever. Obviously, there are exceptions, so again, it really depends on what environment you're referencing.

But I'll return the question, if we do agree he's shooting too many 3s, what shots should he be taking instead? Considering the current roster SA has, and the fact he's only 1/3rd of the way into his 2nd season?

Mid/high post action where he begins facing up would be a start. More off-ball cutting action. Princeton sets out of the high post to take advantage of his passing ability and the difficulty of contesting a face-up jumper, which sets up a pump-fake or rip through into a drive.

There's no sense trying to turn him into a power post guy on the low block; that's not really going to be his game. But mismatch sets the way they used to do with D-Rob are absolutely a thing.

And keep in mind, most reasonable conversation discusses him going from nearly 10 3PA/g to more like 5 or 6. It's still a lot of 3s, but it's more about not being an insane waste by bombing from downtown on sub-37% shots that'll just brick most of the time. And he can start reducing that by not taking 30+-foot 3s with more than 15 seconds on the shot clock, you know what I mean? Against New York, he took THREE 3PA from 32 feet, and none of them were good shots. Beginning with a reduction in those stupid "I wish I was Steph" type 3s would be a fantastic start.

[Peregrine01]

Nuggets are really missing Aaron Gordon, I think that's really the biggest aspect here. He does a lot to cover Jokic's deficiency's and vice versa. They really don't have any other competent big on defense currently, combined with the poor POA defense, and yeah... I've always felt that as great as Jokic is, his teams live and die by the defensive competency of their 4 man. Gordon is far enough above competency that things usually work really well when he's available.

Curious as to why you think that. Gordon is a competent defender of big forwards yes, but he's not a rim protector either - he has a lower block % than Jokic.

IMO, it's on offense where there's been the most synergy. Gordon is great in the dunker's spot and can punish smaller defenders when Jokic draws the opposing C out of the paint.

[OhayoKD]

Nuggets are really missing Aaron Gordon, I think that's really the biggest aspect here. He does a lot to cover Jokic's deficiency's and vice versa. They really don't have any other competent big on defense currently, combined with the poor POA defense, and yeah... I've always felt that as great as Jokic is, his teams live and die by the defensive competency of their 4 man. Gordon is far enough above competency that things usually work really well when he's available.

Curious as to why you think that. Gordon is a competent defender of big forwards yes, but he's not a rim protector either - he has a lower block % than Jokic.

Blocks =/ rim-protection:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2421706
Most paint-protecting doesn't involve blocking the ball at all