2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

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OhayoKD
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#821 » by OhayoKD » Mon Dec 30, 2024 6:24 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:
The value of POA defense is pretty glaring these days. You can have great rim protection like the Bucks do and still have a middling defense cause poor POA

The Bucks team that saw their defense collapse by 7 points adding Jrue Holiday because Giannis packed it in the regular-season?

Why do you keep using the same team that suggests the opposite of what you're arguing as evidence?


The returning members of the 2020 Bucks supporting cast (as basically everyone not just Giannis) taking a step back defensively in 2021 (at least in the RS) is going to lead to a worse RS defense yeah.

After swapping Holiday for Lillard, they went from the best defense in the league in 2023 to the 16th best defense in 2024 which is what OP was talking about

They got worse by 2.4 points between 2023 and 2024. They got worse by 7 points between 2020 and 2021. They're also currently a -1.1 defense (so barely a 1-point drop) in 2025 with 2024 having much better contextual excuses than 2021. The Bucks are not an example of perimeter defense gaining importance. Hinding behind rank doesn't change that
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#822 » by lessthanjake » Mon Dec 30, 2024 7:32 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:The Bucks team that saw their defense collapse by 7 points adding Jrue Holiday because Giannis packed it in the regular-season?

Why do you keep using the same team that suggests the opposite of what you're arguing as evidence?


The returning members of the 2020 Bucks supporting cast (as basically everyone not just Giannis) taking a step back defensively in 2021 (at least in the RS) is going to lead to a worse RS defense yeah.

After swapping Holiday for Lillard, they went from the best defense in the league in 2023 to the 16th best defense in 2024 which is what OP was talking about

They got worse by 2.4 points between 2023 and 2024. They got worse by 7 points between 2020 and 2021. They're also currently a -1.1 defense (so barely a 1-point drop) in 2025 with 2024 having much better contextual excuses than 2021. The Bucks are not an example of perimeter defense gaining importance. Hinding behind rank doesn't change that


I’m a little confused as to how you’re seeing the Bucks’ large drop in defensive effectiveness between 2020 and 2021 and saying it indicates the lack of importance of POA defense. Your argument seems to be that Giannis didn’t try as hard on defense in 2021 and that had a massive effect. But what concrete evidence is there that Giannis didn’t try as hard, and, in particular, that his effort decreased while the rest of his team’s defensive effort didn’t? You seem to be creating a roundabout argument based on vibes.

FWIW, Giannis’s DRAPM in 2021 was still really good (15th in the NBA, as per BasketballDatabase; and 5th in the NBA in the two-year 2020-21 to 2021-22 span that includes an even worse year for the Bucks’ defense), while the rest of his team graded out far worse overall in DRAPM in 2021 (compare: https://thebasketballdatabase.com/2019-20MILRegularSeasonAdvanced.html and https://thebasketballdatabase.com/2020-21MILRegularSeasonAdvanced.html). And, notably for purposes of your argument, the guys whose RAPM dropped the most between 2020 and 2021 tended to actually be guards and wings, like DiVincenzo and Middleton as well as no longer having Wesley Matthews (who had had a great DRAPM in 2020). Single-year RAPM is definitely noisy, but that does generally suggest that the vast bulk of the difference in terms of defense between the 2020 Bucks and 2021 Bucks was about other players on the Bucks being less impactful, not about Giannis, and more generally doesn’t support your argument against the importance of POA defense. In fact, if anything, this data suggests the opposite.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#823 » by Special_Puppy » Mon Dec 30, 2024 7:39 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:The Bucks team that saw their defense collapse by 7 points adding Jrue Holiday because Giannis packed it in the regular-season?

Why do you keep using the same team that suggests the opposite of what you're arguing as evidence?


The returning members of the 2020 Bucks supporting cast (as basically everyone not just Giannis) taking a step back defensively in 2021 (at least in the RS) is going to lead to a worse RS defense yeah.

After swapping Holiday for Lillard, they went from the best defense in the league in 2023 to the 16th best defense in 2024 which is what OP was talking about

They got worse by 2.4 points between 2023 and 2024. They got worse by 7 points between 2020 and 2021. They're also currently a -1.1 defense (so barely a 1-point drop) in 2025 with 2024 having much better contextual excuses than 2021. The Bucks are not an example of perimeter defense gaining importance. Hinding behind rank doesn't change that


Using PBP's Season Summary Tool, After filtering out low leverage possessions I get the following relative defensive ratings (higher is better in this case) for the Bucks over the years
2020: +8.3
2021: +0.9
2023: +4.6
2024: +0.3
2025: +0.1

https://www.pbpstats.com/team-leverage-summary/nba

So yes there was a sizable drop from 2020 to 2021, but there was also a smaller but still sizable drop from 2023 to 2024+2025 as well
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#824 » by Special_Puppy » Mon Dec 30, 2024 8:03 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
The returning members of the 2020 Bucks supporting cast (as basically everyone not just Giannis) taking a step back defensively in 2021 (at least in the RS) is going to lead to a worse RS defense yeah.

After swapping Holiday for Lillard, they went from the best defense in the league in 2023 to the 16th best defense in 2024 which is what OP was talking about

They got worse by 2.4 points between 2023 and 2024. They got worse by 7 points between 2020 and 2021. They're also currently a -1.1 defense (so barely a 1-point drop) in 2025 with 2024 having much better contextual excuses than 2021. The Bucks are not an example of perimeter defense gaining importance. Hinding behind rank doesn't change that


I’m a little confused as to how you’re seeing the Bucks’ large drop in defensive effectiveness between 2020 and 2021 and saying it indicates the lack of importance of POA defense. Your argument seems to be that Giannis didn’t try as hard on defense in 2021 and that had a massive effect. But what concrete evidence is there that Giannis didn’t try as hard, and, in particular, that his effort decreased while the rest of his team’s defensive effort didn’t? You seem to be creating a roundabout argument based on vibes.

FWIW, Giannis’s DRAPM in 2021 was still really good (15th in the NBA, as per BasketballDatabase; and 5th in the NBA in the two-year 2020-21 to 2021-22 span that includes an even worse year for the Bucks’ defense), while the rest of his team graded out far worse overall in DRAPM in 2021 (compare: https://thebasketballdatabase.com/2019-20MILRegularSeasonAdvanced.html and https://thebasketballdatabase.com/2020-21MILRegularSeasonAdvanced.html). And, notably for purposes of your argument, the guys whose RAPM dropped the most between 2020 and 2021 tended to actually be guards and wings, like DiVincenzo and Middleton as well as no longer having Wesley Matthews (who had had a great DRAPM in 2020). Single-year RAPM is definitely noisy, but that does generally suggest that the vast bulk of the difference in terms of defense between the 2020 Bucks and 2021 Bucks was about other players on the Bucks being less impactful, not about Giannis, and more generally doesn’t support your argument against the importance of POA defense. In fact, if anything, this data suggests the opposite.


FWIW here is the Returning Bucks defensive plus-minus according to a composite of advanced stats I made last year
2020--->2021
Giannis: +3.9 ----> +2.5
Middleton: +1.2 ---> +0.4
Lopez: +3.3 ---> +2.1
DiVincenzo: +1.6 ---> +0.6
Connaughton -0.1 ---> +0.4


There was also sizable personnel changes too obviously. Only 5 players returned from the 2020 team. There is good reason to believe that the Bucks that departed were significantly better defensively as a group than the Bucks that replaced them

2020 Bucks that Left Defensive Plus-Minus
Hill: +0.9
Bledsoe: +1.1
Matthews: +1.4
Ilyasova: +0.9
Korver: -0.2

2021 Bucks that Arrived Defensive Plus-Minus
Holiday: +1.4
Portis: +0
Teague: -0.7
Forbes: -2.0
Thanasis (was on team in 2020, but wasn't in rotation): +0.7
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#825 » by falcolombardi » Mon Dec 30, 2024 9:53 pm

Leagues highest cummulative plus-minus

1 shai (+375)

2 mobley (+273)

Gap

25 pritchard (+171)

The gap between 1st and 2nd is bigger than 2nd and 25th.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#826 » by Peregrine01 » Mon Dec 30, 2024 10:01 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Leagues highest cummulative plus-minus

1 shai (+375)

2 mobley (+273)

Gap

25 pritchard (+171)

The gap between 1st and 2nd is bigger than 2nd and 25th.


Yeah. Dunno why Shai isn't a bigger favorite for MVP. Jokic's team isn't good enough plus there's gonna be voter fatigue and Giannis's team hasn't been good enough and his impact numbers don't come close to the 2 ahead of him.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#827 » by lessthanjake » Mon Dec 30, 2024 11:13 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Leagues highest cummulative plus-minus

1 shai (+375)

2 mobley (+273)

Gap

25 pritchard (+171)

The gap between 1st and 2nd is bigger than 2nd and 25th.


Yeah. Dunno why Shai isn't a bigger favorite for MVP. Jokic's team isn't good enough plus there's gonna be voter fatigue and Giannis's team hasn't been good enough and his impact numbers don't come close to the 2 ahead of him.


Yeah, I think Jokic is a better player than SGA, but I think SGA is probably the more natural MVP favorite at the moment, given how much team success plays into it. I suspect conventional wisdom probably internalizes the notion that the Thunder will not do quite as well the rest of the season as they have so far. And that may be right, but we don’t know that. But the Thunder are on a 69-win pace at the moment (with an 11.5 SRS). If they finish the season close to that, then I think it is highly likely that SGA would win MVP over Jokic (whose team probably won’t even get 50 wins, and if they do then it’ll be barely). A player who is clearly one of the top few players in the NBA and whose team wins 65+ games is almost always going to win MVP.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#828 » by Ur big fat hero » Tue Dec 31, 2024 2:38 pm

:onfire: :onfire: :onfire:
Man, I just love watching grown man play ball.
A particular one would be Shy... hilarious?
...
Eh... Alexander!!
So... Did you watch him? Did you SEE how fast he was?! I wonder if he's faster than MY shimmer tricks... Now you see him, now you don't. Where's the ball you ask? In your MOOOOOOOOOOOOOO--the basket. It's in the basket. Oopsie! He struck not-a-one... Not-a-TWO...!! But 35 points!!! Geez I have absolutely no idea if that's a big deal or not, but it's still more than 1 or 2, so... Good job alex!
Reb... 6. Ast 7. Hmmm. You know I feel like maybe they should've hired someone else to do this, give me a sec [furiously googling...]
Oh. Okay.
...
Good job alex!!! :onfire: :onfire: :onfire:
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#829 » by GSP » Wed Jan 1, 2025 12:14 am

GSP wrote:
EmpireFalls wrote:Dubs are the clear favourites in the West, unless Chet’s hip miraculously heals. I don’t see anyone on their level. What an amazing job by Kerr, Dunleavy, and the entire apparatus over there. This looks like the singular deepest team in the NBA.


Next month will tell us all we need to know if theyre for real or not

Image

Half their wins so far against bottom 8 teams in Nba - x3 Pelicans, Wizards, Jazz, Blazers, Hawks

Okc win looks good on paper till you realize they had literally 0 bigs w/o Chet or Hartenstein
Grizz w/ no Ja
And ofc their best win was against us.............w/o Jaylen or Kp

by the new year we either look at Warriors as proper contenders and title favorites or complete frauds who ate off one of leagues weakest scheds up before December


Well well well...............I suppose we got our answer.........................

4-12 in this stretch so far..........so much for the premature contender talk and revamped post Klay juggernaut..................maybe if they start having long stretches where they play the Wizards, Blazers, Jazz, Pelicans and teams missing their best and 2nd best player again :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#830 » by itsxtray » Wed Jan 1, 2025 12:38 am

Mid/high post action where he begins facing up would be a start. More off-ball cutting action. Princeton sets out of the high post to take advantage of his passing ability and the difficulty of contesting a face-up jumper, which sets up a pump-fake or rip through into a drive.

There's no sense trying to turn him into a power post guy on the low block; that's not really going to be his game. But mismatch sets the way they used to do with D-Rob are absolutely a thing.

And keep in mind, most reasonable conversation discusses him going from nearly 10 3PA/g to more like 5 or 6. It's still a lot of 3s, but it's more about not being an insane waste by bombing from downtown on sub-37% shots that'll just brick most of the time. And he can start reducing that by not taking 30+-foot 3s with more than 15 seconds on the shot clock, you know what I mean? Against New York, he took THREE 3PA from 32 feet, and none of them were good shots. Beginning with a reduction in those stupid "I wish I was Steph" type 3s would be a fantastic start.


You must be loving this quarter from Wemby.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#831 » by OhayoKD » Wed Jan 1, 2025 3:27 am

Friendly reminder this season Wemby is the king of LA
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#832 » by NBA4Lyfe » Wed Jan 1, 2025 6:30 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Friendly reminder this season Wemby is the king of LA



didnt the clippers already beat the spurs this year tho
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#833 » by OhayoKD » Thu Jan 2, 2025 2:02 am

Methinks the Nets want Atkison back
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#834 » by OhayoKD » Thu Jan 2, 2025 2:03 am

NBA4Lyfe wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Friendly reminder this season Wemby is the king of LA



didnt the clippers already beat the spurs this year tho

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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#835 » by RCM88x » Thu Jan 2, 2025 3:14 am

OhayoKD wrote:Methinks the Nets want Atkison back


The coup instituted by KD and Kyrie to get rid of him was always so shocking to me. He was regarded pretty highly even then, but he wasn't a players coach so he had to go I guess? Just was strange to me. So glad the Cavs got him.
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LookToShoot wrote:Melo is the only player that makes the Rockets watchable for the basketball purists. Otherwise it would just be three point shots and pick n roll.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#836 » by AEnigma » Thu Jan 2, 2025 3:25 am

RCM88x wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Methinks the Nets want Atkison back

The coup instituted by KD and Kyrie to get rid of him was always so shocking to me. He was regarded pretty highly even then, but he wasn't a players coach so he had to go I guess? Just was strange to me. So glad the Cavs got him.

Durant actually a coach killer for this
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#837 » by Fadeaway_J » Thu Jan 2, 2025 3:32 am

RCM88x wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Methinks the Nets want Atkison back


The coup instituted by KD and Kyrie to get rid of him was always so shocking to me. He was regarded pretty highly even then, but he wasn't a players coach so he had to go I guess? Just was strange to me. So glad the Cavs got him.

Tbh KD and Kyrie also appointed themselves coaches, so losing one member of the committee wasn't a big deal.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#838 » by TheGOATRises007 » Thu Jan 2, 2025 4:38 am

Westbrook has been playing much better recently.

Nuggets are 10-3 or something when he starts too.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#839 » by Peregrine01 » Thu Jan 2, 2025 5:38 am

TheGOATRises007 wrote:Westbrook has been playing much better recently.

Nuggets are 10-3 or something when he starts too.


He was largely a train wreck trying to carry the bench earlier in the season but he’s been excellent playing with Jokic. Lately he’s just been sharing more minutes with Jokic because of injuries to starters.

It’s wholly unique the way Jokic can mold himself so that his teammates can play at their best. IMO, the best the game has seen at elevating the play of pretty much any player archetype.
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Re: 2024-25 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#840 » by itsxtray » Thu Jan 2, 2025 8:13 am

Peregrine01 wrote:
TheGOATRises007 wrote:Westbrook has been playing much better recently.

Nuggets are 10-3 or something when he starts too.

It’s wholly unique the way Jokic can mold himself so that his teammates can play at their best. IMO, the best the game has seen at elevating the play of pretty much any player archetype.

That's the advantage of being a legit big. P&r's and DHOs are some of the most efficient half-court plays. A star guard or forward usually runs pick-and-rolls with one big on the floor, but Jokic can be the screener or the ball handler with any of his teammates. He uses the threat of his screening, shooting, passing, and the mismatches created when the defense switches to get easy looks for his teammates. On the other hand, most ball handlers can only run p&r's with their bigs or come off DHOs—they can't be the roller or the DHO hub who constantly rescreens to create downhill advantages for their teammates.

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