Re: Game Footage Link Thread
Posted: Fri Jul 5, 2019 6:46 am
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Blackmill wrote:Rewatched 1977 Blazers vs. Lakers, Games 2 & 4 (for the 8th time?).
Worth noting is both games 2 and 4 were close entering the 4th quarter. In game 2 the Lakers led by 7 while in game 4 the Blazers led by 6. So it was interesting for me to explore why the Lakers lost these games. These quarters were very fun to watch. Here's a summary accompanied with some analysis.
Game 2
In game 2, the Lakers started the 4th quarter with Kareem on the bench. They made a basket on the first play, pushing the lead to 9 points, but they followed that up by committing 3 consecutive turnovers and the lead was cut to 5. A theme throughout this series was the Lakers lack of playmaking and ball handling from the guards. They were severely lacking in these areas by any standard.
The next several minutes were simply an instance of one team making shots and the other team missing. The Blazers went on a stretch of hot shooting, draining 5/6 long 2s, mostly thanks to Herm Gilliam. Meanwhile the Lakers missed 4 wide open shots. Somehow the Lakers were still up by 5, thanks to Kareem, who had returned to the game. He stifled several attempts at the rim, while drawing fouls, passing to open cutters, and making his own shots.
Still, Herm was having the quarter of his career, and continued to drain shot after shot. This included a remarkable "karate kick", off balance jumper to bring the Blazers within 1. What a moment for him! At this point, there's 3:00 left in the game. The Blazers catch a break as a ticky-tack foul is called on Kareem late in the shot clock, giving the Blazers another chance to score, which Bill Walton capitalizes on. The Blazers now have the lead with a little over 2:00 left in the game, but unfortunately the footage ends here.
I don't know if it was intentional, but the Blazers succeeding at baiting the Lakers into a long range shooting contest. They aggressively pressured the ball handler while often having a player leave his man to threaten any post entry pass, creating several turnovers, but even when this pressure lead to breakdowns it seemed to favor the Blazers. These breakdowns usually led to open jumpers, but the Lakers back court was not going to beat the Blazers in a shooting contest, not with how Herm was playing.
The Lakers chance to win, and how they had built a lead, was by playing through Kareem. Each time they took a jump shot without Kareem touching the ball was a victory for the Blazers. It's worth noting that Kareem was extremely effective when he did touch the ball in the 4th. He scored 8 points in this quarter on very few touches. Gilliam shot brilliantly, the Blazers preyed upon the Lakers ball handlers, and Kareem had as good a quarter as you can expect with everything else falling apart.
Game 4
In game 4, the Lakers started the quarter down by 6. Kareem had five fouls, and per the commentators, the Blazers lead was unsurprisingly developed with Kareem on the bench. Like in game 2, the Lakers backcourt made several turnovers to start the 4th, and would continue to do so until the end of the game. The Lakers also didn't learn from their previous losses, as they were again baited into long jumpers rather than playing through Kareem.
Kareem was very effective at defending Walton in this quarter. Walton would only go 2-7 against Kareem. And crucially, the Lakers fast break had most of its success on Walton misses, since he was more likely to be out of the play. Either 3 or 4 of these Walton misses lead to successful fast breaks. This was maybe the only positive contribution by the Lakers back court. Aside from shutting down Walton, Kareem erased five or six plays at the rim in this quarter between blocked shots and general deterrence, and seized several 50/50 rebounds.
The quarter is ugly for the Lakers offense with a lot a "hot potato" by the Lakers guards as they tried to figure out the Blazers ball pressure. There's no standout play from either side compared to the 4th quarter in game 2. The play is scrappy and both sides struggle to score. Kareem makes two brutal turnovers down the stretch. There are too many bodies around him and all the Lakers and Blazers are packed into the paint. That said, and the Lakers are only down by 5 points and there's two minutes left.
Kareem smartly doubles Hollins off Walton with the shot clock running out, and forces a violation. Unbelievably, Newman forces a contested jump shot on the following Lakers possession. At this point the footage starts to become corrupted, but we see Kareem makes at least one more shot, though it's not enough for them to comeback as only a minute or so remains. I believe Kareem scored 8 points in this quarter, again with few touches, but the turnovers were horrible.
General Thoughts
Despite a significantly less productive group of teammates, it seemed that Kareem would be able to turn games 2 and 4 into upsets. Unfortunately for the Lakers, their flaws were too great, and the Blazers won the 4th quarters in both games by exploiting the Lakers lack of ball handling (plus Herm Gilliam's game 2 brilliance). It's worth understanding why the lack of ball handling proved to be so crippling. It goes far beyond the turnovers. To see why, we will look at the 80s Lakers.
The 80s Lakers would often try to occupy the defense before throwing the ball to Kareem. Here's a few examples:
• They would have Kareem set baseline screens, then reverse the screen, so that Kareem was now posting up.
• The Lakers would begin a PnR with Kareem on the weak side, and if Kareem's man sagged towards the strong side, quickly rotate the ball at the same time that Kareem seals his man in the low post.
• The Lakers would set pin downs for Byron Scott, so if the on-ball defender fronted the post, it was trivial for the ball handler to pass to whoever sprung open (whether Byron Scott or one of the screeners).
The '77 Lakers couldn't do any of this. Even just a high-low counter was too much. The overall effect was that Kareem was pushed out towards the top of the key, since without these very simple preliminary actions and counters, the Blazers were free to aggressively front the post or even just double/triple team Kareem.
All this forced Kareem into harder shots and reduced his volume. For context, while 8 points is not exactly a low volume quarter, it was for Kareem who I find typically had much higher volume in close games (see the last 6 minutes of 1984 finals game 7 for an example). Together with the jump shot baiting, the Blazers got the Lakers to shift their offense far away from Kareem.
This was a massive coaching and matchup success for the Blazers. But very few teams had ball handling problems so severe as the Lakers.
While not the purpose of this post, I have to comment on the Walton vs Kareem matchup. This series was decisively in Kareem's favor. In the past there's been plenty of arguments about who peaked higher and somehow this series has become a sticking point against Kareem. For the record, I think there is an argument, but this series certainly isn't evidence. Kareem was better on both ends.
I don't see it discussed much, but how come Kareem's efficiency doesn't drop much as he aged, when he so clearly was less able as a scorer? The answer is written above. The Lakers fixed their crucial flaws and that helped Kareem sustain his scoring. I have to wonder how his peak would have looked had he played with better ball handlers and passers.
70sFan wrote:Two weeks ago, I got a game one from this series and it's almost full. Would you like to watch it and analyze in similar way?
Blackmill wrote:70sFan wrote:Two weeks ago, I got a game one from this series and it's almost full. Would you like to watch it and analyze in similar way?
Absolutely! That would be awesome and much appreciated.
Blackmill wrote:70sFan wrote:Two weeks ago, I got a game one from this series and it's almost full. Would you like to watch it and analyze in similar way?
Absolutely! That would be awesome and much appreciated.
Blackmill wrote:...
70sFan wrote:Blackmill wrote:...
Have you seen the game? What are your thoughts?
70sFan wrote:Blackmill wrote:70sFan wrote:Two weeks ago, I got a game one from this series and it's almost full. Would you like to watch it and analyze in similar way?
Absolutely! That would be awesome and much appreciated.Spoiler:
I think that Portland will present the same types of problems that we did when we played our best basketball. That is a pressure type of defense on the Lakers guards all over the court, trying to force Kareem out a little bit higher.
Unfortunately for the Lakers, their flaws were too great, and the Blazers won the 4th quarters in both games by exploiting the Lakers lack of ball handling... The overall effect was that Kareem was pushed out towards the top of the key.
A very important factor here also, Brent, would be that we caused a lot of problems [for the Lakers] when we got the ball inbounds and up the floor quickly. This is something that the Trail Blazers do exceptionally well.
Clyde Frazier wrote:Special upload for you...
Colbinii wrote:..and for you.