The Lebron Thread (Pt. 3)

[mysticbb]

Can someone explain to me what I'm missing in regards to on/off numbers and how they are calculated?

James was on the court for 1740 offensive possessions, the Heat scored 1947 points in those possessions.
--> 1947/1740*100 = 111.9

James was off the court for 278 offensive possessions, the Heat scored 287 points in those possessions.
--> 287/278*100 = 103.2


James was on the court for 1734 defensive possessions, the opponents scored 1814 points in those possessions.
--> 1814/1734*100 = 104.6

James was off the court for 283 defensive possessions, the opponents scored 272 points during those possessions.
--> 272/287*100 = 96.1


-->

On: 111.9 - 104.6 = 7.3
Off: 103.2 - 96.1 = 7.1


The asymmetrical distribution of the offensive and defensive possessions is causing the misleading picture given by the raw +/- numbers. If James would have had only as many offensive possessions as he had defensive possessions, his expected raw total +/- would have been 126 instead of 133. If the Heat without James would have had as many offensive possessions as they had defensive possessions, the expected raw total +/- would have been 20 instead of 15.

[JulesWinnfield]

Can someone explain to me what I'm missing in regards to on/off numbers and how they are calculated?

James was on the court for 1740 offensive possessions, the Heat scored 1947 points in those possessions.
--> 1947/1740*100 = 111.9

James was off the court for 278 offensive possessions, the Heat scored 287 points in those possessions.
--> 287/278*100 = 103.2


James was on the court for 1734 defensive possessions, the opponents scored 1814 points in those possessions.
--> 1814/1734*100 = 104.6

James was off the court for 283 defensive possessions, the opponents scored 272 points during those possessions.
--> 272/287*100 = 96.1


-->

On: 111.9 - 104.6 = 7.3
Off: 103.2 - 96.1 = 7.1


The asymmetrical distribution of the offensive and defensive possessions is causing the misleading picture given by the raw +/- numbers. If James would have had only as many offensive possessions as he had defensive possessions, his expected raw total +/- would have been 126 instead of 133. If the Heat without James would have had as many offensive possessions as they had defensive possessions, the expected raw total +/- would have been 20 instead of 15.

Thanks a bunch for that explanation. Makes more sense now

These numbers can swing wildly with such a short sample. Prior to game 6 vs Indiana he was like +7.5 per 100 on/off, and after that one game he slipped to a minus. The Heat performed absurdly well with him off the floor in the Bulls series (+23 in games 1 through 3), with a good portion of that coming in utter garbage time in game 2. Really effects the off court sample. They were a minus 8 without him otherwise in the postseason outside of games 1 through 3 chicago

[mysticbb]

These numbers can swing wildly with such a short sample.

Indeed. They may also be heavily influenced by opponents strength.

The best thing to handle those things is actually using regression analysis while including all minutes of the playoffs as well, and not looking at that separately.

[trainwreckog]

i haven't been able to figure out exactly why, but the period from the 1998-1999 season through the 2003-2004 season was a real trough for the nba - offensive ratings were at 25-year lows because the league was in serious transition.

my theory for the trough is that jordan was gone, barkley, malone, drexler, stockton, pippen - the entire 90's player pool it seemed - and a host of other experienced vets were basically done, including grant hill, fat kemp, payton was old, as was penny.

Your theory is terrible.

The actual reason is that during that period previously illegal defenses all gradually became legal with the lone exception of defensive 3 seconds.

not at all. my theory is spot on - the league introduced those rules regarding illegal defenses in 2001, but only tested them in the D-league, not enforcing them on the nba level until the 2004-2005 season.

go to nbadotcom's rule changes page (http://www.nba.com/analysis/rules_history.html) and look at the rule changes for the 2004-2005 season.. this is a direct quote - "New rules were introduced to curtail hand-checking, clarify blocking fouls and call defensive three seconds to open up the game."

no one played zone during shaq's 3-peat years - it wasn't until after shaq's 3-peat that the league began enforcing the zone rules to minimize bigs and make it easier for swingmen.

[trainwreckog]

in 1991, teams averaged 2.1 three-point makes on 7.1 attempts.

in 2013, it was 7.6 makes on 20.0 attempts, over a 300% increase.

the massive increase in 3-pt shooting and game-planning for the 3-pt shot has made it so today's game enjoys optimal spacing that the 80's and 90's did not have, as defenders are forced to hug shooters.

contrast that to jordan's day, where packing the paint and horrible spacing was the norm. no one was worried about 3-pt shooting back then.

in addition to this factor, lebron enjoys a game where no contact is allowed by the defender on the offensive player from the baseline endline to the frontcourt ft line. these rules began to be enforced at the beginning of the 2004-2005 season, and the stats show that offensive rating immediately jumped that season by 3.1 points, which is by FAR the largest jump in 30 years (http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... stats.html).

[therealbig3]

^Stop trolling. That's like the 20th time you've posted the EXACT same thing in response to no one.

[thebottomline]

Prevalence of 3 point shooting, spacing, and the rule changes were in response to the fact that defenses really started to become better leaguewide during the late 90s and early 00s. The playoffs became ugly halfcourt low-scoring slugfests unlike anything we had really seen before. In the 2004 playoffs, average ORTG was 98.8 and average TS% was 49.97%! Something had to be done to restore the offensive/defensive balance and that's what the league and teams have tried to do.

Yet ORtgs haven't quite reached and maintained the 108 ORtg of the 80s and 90s. I'd argue that's because defenses are still ahead of the curve and better than they were before while offenses are still evolving. Unless we want to argue that somehow defenses have become worse and that offenses have become more inept, which goes back to the argument that apparently everything in mankind improves over time except basketball.

Defenses today are smarter, more sophisticated and more hyper aware than ever before. The best defenses in Jordan's day were great, sure, but the average defense of today is better than the average defense of the 90s. train can post all the 10 minute YouTube videos he wants, but his own stats show this.

[trainwreckog]

Prevalence of 3 point shooting, spacing, and the rule changes were in response to the fact that defenses really started to become better leaguewide during the late 90s and early 00s. The playoffs became ugly halfcourt low-scoring slugfests unlike anything we had really seen before. In the 2004 playoffs, average ORTG was 98.8 and average TS% was 49.97%! Something had to be done to restore the offensive/defensive balance and that's what the league and teams have tried to do.

Yet ORtgs haven't quite reached and maintained the 108 ORtg of the 80s and 90s. I'd argue that's because defenses are still ahead of the curve and better than they were before while offenses are still evolving. Unless we want to argue that somehow defenses have become worse and that offenses have become more inept, which goes back to the argument that apparently everything in mankind improves over time except basketball.

Defenses today are smarter, more sophisticated and more hyper aware than ever before. The best defenses in Jordan's day were great, sure, but the average defense of today is better than the average defense of the 90s. train can post all the 10 minute YouTube videos he wants, but his own stats show this.

the defense has to work so much harder today, since they can't touch the offensive player above the ft line and have to cover more ground to get to shooters.

so maybe that is what you are talking about with sophistication - the defense has to work a ton harder than before and appears to be scrambling a lot more than before... and that is because they ARE; they have sophisticated scrambling schemes perhaps.... and mj would benefit from this greatly.

david stern, rod thorn, other league officials - all these guys have been quoted many times saying that the rule changes in 2005 were meant to "free up the game" and "open the game up". i can post these quotes - there are many of them.

how would mj not have performed better under these conditions? we know how lebron performs. he matches or nearly matches mj's output from the 80's and 90's. but how would mj do today? he'd do better than he did before.

[Talent Chaser]

All I am seeing from MJ posters are a bunch of "what ifs", this nonsense will never change anyone's opinion. The game has changed so much since Jordan's era, this change involves Perks towards Lebron being better and disadvantages towards Lebron. It cancels out, you can never use "what ifs" in arguing basketball because it evolves and changes over time and luck is involved, it's simply part of the game. All-time greats like MJ and LeBron would dominate in any era, that's why they're called all-time greats.

[trainwreckog]

what were the advantages for mj over lebron?

the advantages lebron has over mj are easy to see - in order to cover more ground because of the superior spacing, defenses have had to invent "sophisticated" scrambling schemes as a previous poster bottomeline pointed out.

and they can't touch the perimeter scorer anymore like they used to, further decreasing their capability.

it's is just a fact that the game was changed to make it easier on perimeter players and harder on defenses. david stern, rod thorn and others have said exactly this. http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showth ... 664&page=4

[GreenHat]

what were the advantages for mj over lebron?

the advantages lebron has over mj are easy to see - in order to cover more ground because of the superior spacing, defenses have had to invent "sophisticated" scrambling schemes as a previous poster bottomeline pointed out.

and they can't touch the perimeter scorer anymore like they used to, further decreasing their capability.

it's is just a fact that the game was changed to make it easier on perimeter players and harder on defenses. david stern, rod thorn and others have said exactly this. http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showth ... 664&page=4

The advantages MJ had over Lebron are the exact opposite of the ones you are claiming except on defense.

You keep harping on how much easier offense is so then according to you isn't Jordan's defense overrated and Lebron's underrated?

Again I don't agree with you but if you're going on about how much easier offense is for players then defense must be harder and MJ has the advantage even according to you.

[E-Balla]

Prevalence of 3 point shooting, spacing, and the rule changes were in response to the fact that defenses really started to become better leaguewide during the late 90s and early 00s. The playoffs became ugly halfcourt low-scoring slugfests unlike anything we had really seen before. In the 2004 playoffs, average ORTG was 98.8 and average TS% was 49.97%! Something had to be done to restore the offensive/defensive balance and that's what the league and teams have tried to do.

Yet ORtgs haven't quite reached and maintained the 108 ORtg of the 80s and 90s. I'd argue that's because defenses are still ahead of the curve and better than they were before while offenses are still evolving. Unless we want to argue that somehow defenses have become worse and that offenses have become more inept, which goes back to the argument that apparently everything in mankind improves over time except basketball.

Defenses today are smarter, more sophisticated and more hyper aware than ever before. The best defenses in Jordan's day were great, sure, but the average defense of today is better than the average defense of the 90s. train can post all the 10 minute YouTube videos he wants, but his own stats show this.

Yes because boxing has improved soooo much.

I think it's that defenses have become better and with it offenses have become worse. More of a focus on getting back on defense, not using post games, slowing down, and taking 3s has changed the game. That's why a SSOL team looks so great. Teams aren't equipped to fight running teams like in the 80s.

[GreenHat]

When Wade declines further, will LeBron bolt Miami and stack the deck again on some other superstar's team, blaming Riley for not putting enough talent around him?

You mean the same thing MJ threatened to do on numerous occasions?

Maybe he'll quit on the team for two years and only come back if he can get 30+ million a year.

[GreenHat]

He exercised his option in free agency and took less money to go to another team.

All those other guys chased the most money.

Putting winning over money is a trait that I am glad our best player has and I don't see it as a negative.

lebron left minimal money on the table going to miami, he exercised his option to go to another hall of famers team, and i exercise my opinion that to be in the "goat" discussion, you shouldn't have to do that to win

And none of those guys took even a cent less. So yes he chose winning over money. All those other guys took the biggest pile of cash every time.

He exercised his option in free agency to go to the best situation for him just like everyone does in every job change.

You can exercise your option to say dumb things like basing how good a player is on business decisions but then we all have the option to think that is illogical.

That would be like saying MJ isn't as good at basketball because he's run the Bobcats into the ground. Additionally Jordan did threaten to leave the Bulls and join his HoF friends on numerous occasions. The Bulls would just offer him the biggest pile of money and he would be placated.

MJ had very few superstar friends prior to playing on the dream team, and he had already started getting rings by then, additionally how does his ability to run a team mean anything? you simply can never rate lebron ahead of MJ.

MJ never needed a game 7 to close out a finals
he never lost in the finals
he never watched another team celebrate a championship on his homecourt, much less twice.
MJ played against better competition the first 7 years he failed to win a title. Lebron has played his entire career in a weak conference[/quote]

MJ was friends with Ewing and threatened to go to New York on multiple occasions. I'm not going to get into an argument about how good MJ was at making friends.

Talk about arbitrary criteria with your last little list.

I could make a similarly arbitrary list but that would be stupid.

[GreenHat]

People say similar things win comparing wilt and russell. Are you saying I'm wrong on those factors when comparing LeBron to Jordan, provable ir not? Just because things can't be "statted" does not mean they aren't there. Was not Jordan know for his mental dominance? Was jordan not known for never not stepping up in the Finals? You can put LeBron up with LeBron with Jordan on those unmeasurable aspects, but we both know that is not the case.

Jordan was not known for his mental dominance early in his career. Quite the opposite. Everyone was saying Jordan didn't have the mental intangibles that Bird and Magic had. The narrative was created retroactively after he started winning just like it is with every player. Now that Lebron has started the same narratives will be made up about Lebron.

[PCProductions]

Dude there's literally an active Jordan vs Lebron thread on this very board.

[GreenHat]

Modern defenses are way more sophisticated and well-organized today than they were at that stage. Back then you didn't even need to space the floor out much further than 20 feet, double-teams and rotations were half-assed and you could still get tons of transition opportunities because teams didn't emphasize getting back over rebounding like they do now.

Watch the '87 Finals and it's absolutely stunning how fluid the offenses are, and how much closer to the basket everyone operates. Guys played with effort on the defensive end, but there's none of the precise rotations and organizations you see today. A lot of that's because they didn't use the 3-point shooting like they do today, but still -- it's an almost completely different sport on the defensive end.

I read a great article in the past three or four months -- I want to say it was by Zach Lowe -- about how offenses are starting to include counters and fakes into their sets, much like you see in football, just to be able to get decent shots because teams have gotten so good at rotating and helping. That, and because they can run pseudo-zones now with the different rules.

None of this is to say Jordan wouldn't still been the best. Defenses started to get really, really good in the mid- to late 90s, and he was still getting his. He would have been great regardless of era. But that particular time frame you referenced has absolutely nothing on what the NBA does today. Back then it was all about being physical and hammering on guys rather than the actual soundness of the defense.

The game has evolved light years past that.

Exactly.

The evolution of defense has been in the team defense department. The rotations are so much better.

The sophistication of defenses has been overshadowed because offenses have similarly gotten so much better.

[GreenHat]

People are seriously trying to assert that Lebron sees more crowded lanes than Jordan saw in the mid-late 80's and 90's? Wow. Lebron has had NOTHING BUT space to operate in this year, which was a MAJOR reason for his sky-high FG%. The paint is WIDE OPEN today compared to the 80's and early 90's especially, and on top of that you can't even put your hands on guys on the perimeter, making it easier to get by their initial defender and get into these open spaces. And then at the rim you have a dearth of PF/C shotblockers, which were abundant in Jordan's day. People were going ga-ga over Hibbert's effect on Lebron's game - you would think he was the second coming of Bill Russell. Now imagine Hakeem, Mutombo, Mourning, Ewing, DRob, Shaq, Eaton etc.

Even in this very thread, Lebron supporters admitted that Lebron plays his best when he has the spacing provided by 3-4 shooters on the floor. When it was, say, Birdman, Wade, Lebron, and 2 shooters, even that wasn't good enough spacing for Lebron. That should tell you something right there, but it won't.

You can't look at how the Spurs (one team) played him, because they were PURPOSELY daring him to take jumpers, which he was too afraid to do most of the series, and when he did take them he was horrible at it. They could never, ever get away with defense like that against Jordan, because MJ would have averaged 40 ppg on like 55% shooting if SA played him that way. There are ways to guard Lebron effectively. There was no "way" to guard Jordan effectively, because his game was too complete.

I can't even fathom how anyone can say with a straight face that Lebron - this season especially - saw better defense than, say, '88-'92 MJ saw. It's not even comparable.

You're right the defense in the late 80s and early 90s aren't comparable to today. You just can't tell or don't want to be able to tell which one is better.

[NO-KG-AI]

Neither offense or defense is THAT sophisticated. You guys are really over thinking things sometimes.

[thebottomline]

No one is disputing that they changed the rules in 2005 to give offenses more leeway - that's common knowledge. Let's remember why they did it though - precisely because the average defense had improved so much in the late 90s and early 00s!

To the point where the average ORTG from 1999 to 2004 was 103.4, compared to an average ORTG of 107.5 from 1985 to 1998.

To the point where the average team in the playoffs could not even break 100 points per 100 possessions, compared to the average playoff ORTG of 109.2 from 1985 to 1998.

Rules were changed to give the game some balance again. Still, today's offenses aren't outputting the same efficiency that teams were able to in the faster paced, more transition oriented '80s and '90s era (which would arguably play more to some of LeBron's strengths than today's game does, btw, if we want to argue who would take advantage of what - his open court game transported into the '80s and '90s would make him even more dangerous).