2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[eminence]

Don't agree with the claim that Conley is the only one who's improved.

Clarkson/Gobert have also significantly outperformed their play last season (Bojan significantly underperforming to date). Favors obviously outperforming Bradley as the only notable roster move. Quin also deserves some credit, the Jazz have leaned into their best lineups a lot more than in recent seasons.

[ShotCreator]

So what would be your evidence Clarkson/Gobert have significantly improved? Just curious.

[bondom34]

+/- is no more than an indicator.

But if something is this extreme, it’s very easy to make conclusions.


The absolutely mild, irrelevant difference between Butler and Robinson last year means nothing.

If it was one guy with a +35 on/off, I would be a fool to not make the bare minimum assumption thet, this guy is playing extremely well.


And no one is close, so it’s a good chance he’s playing better than damn near everyone.

Conley is fueling lineups that make Utah the #3 team in the league right now by SRS and Net rating.


Flat out look at their talent level.

It’s not out logical to assume you can have an amazing team without amazing players. Or bad team without bad ones.

They’re outlier good, without outlier good players? No. Makes zero sense.

There's literally nothing extreme. The extreme thing is Utah's offense being flamethrowers when Gobert sits and Conley is there...and I'm not pinning that on Conley's shooting.

He's absolutely playing "better". But KCP is leading the Lakers in net rating, and nobody's closer to him than Caruso. Yet neither of them are MVP either.

They do have outlier good players, Gobert is actually one of them...he just has an actual player behind him now.

[ShotCreator]

+/- is no more than an indicator.

But if something is this extreme, it’s very easy to make conclusions.


The absolutely mild, irrelevant difference between Butler and Robinson last year means nothing.

If it was one guy with a +35 on/off, I would be a fool to not make the bare minimum assumption thet, this guy is playing extremely well.


And no one is close, so it’s a good chance he’s playing better than damn near everyone.

Conley is fueling lineups that make Utah the #3 team in the league right now by SRS and Net rating.


Flat out look at their talent level.

It’s not out logical to assume you can have an amazing team without amazing players. Or bad team without bad ones.

They’re outlier good, without outlier good players? No. Makes zero sense.

There's literally nothing extreme. The extreme thing is Utah's offense being flamethrowers when Gobert sits and Conley is there...and I'm not pinning that on Conley's shooting.

He's absolutely playing "better". But KCP is leading the Lakers in net rating, and nobody's closer to him than Caruso. Yet neither of them are MVP either.

They do have outlier good players, Gobert is actually one of them...he just has an actual player behind him now.

I mean we really don’t have anything to talk about here. I think the data does a well enough job of representing what is happening on the court.

You obviously don’t. That’s fine.

[bondom34]

+/- is no more than an indicator.

But if something is this extreme, it’s very easy to make conclusions.


The absolutely mild, irrelevant difference between Butler and Robinson last year means nothing.

If it was one guy with a +35 on/off, I would be a fool to not make the bare minimum assumption thet, this guy is playing extremely well.


And no one is close, so it’s a good chance he’s playing better than damn near everyone.

Conley is fueling lineups that make Utah the #3 team in the league right now by SRS and Net rating.


Flat out look at their talent level.

It’s not out logical to assume you can have an amazing team without amazing players. Or bad team without bad ones.

They’re outlier good, without outlier good players? No. Makes zero sense.

There's literally nothing extreme. The extreme thing is Utah's offense being flamethrowers when Gobert sits and Conley is there...and I'm not pinning that on Conley's shooting.

He's absolutely playing "better". But KCP is leading the Lakers in net rating, and nobody's closer to him than Caruso. Yet neither of them are MVP either.

They do have outlier good players, Gobert is actually one of them...he just has an actual player behind him now.

I mean we really don’t have anything to talk about here. I think the data does a well enough job of representing what is happening on the court.

You obviously don’t. That’s fine.

I mean I'm also not ready to declare the Heat out of the playoffs, or a lot of things that happen in tiny samples. But yeah there's a lot more context to it than those numbers too. Because I'm guessing Conley isn't the only reason those lineups are posting a historic offense (its probably a lot of the crazy 3 point shooting around him). The defense is still bad in those minutes.

The non-Conley minutes I'm not as sure of, but yeah guessing small sample. There's a bit of a difference between talking about what's happening and claiming Conley is an MVP level guy off this sort of thing.

[eminence]

So what would be your evidence Clarkson/Gobert have significantly improved? Just curious.

Clarkson is at career highs in: pp100, TS+, onrtg, on-off amongst likely others, but those are the easiest to show his impact and how he's achieving it. Career highs in PER/WS/48/BPM.

Gobert has less obvious statistical indicators due to it mostly being defensive effort (more poorly captured by traditional stats), closest would probably be the career high in BPG, but not an A+ indicator by any means. Maybe there's more in the rim protection type stats if someone wants to dig. Having watched hundreds of Gobert games over his career I'm comfortable with my eye test in regards to his defensive effort level, it's up considerably (defensive speed stats from nba.com maybe?).

[ShotCreator]

And you keep misunderstanding my point of view. And you micro analyze NBA possessions from reading data. That’s impossible.

The nuances of what happens on the court can’t be captured by just what shots are taken and made.

Conley could clap and dance every time someone takes a shot, and if that helped, if it actually had a benefit, +/- would show it.

Conley getting the ball to guys in rhythm and knowing how to maximize his teammates every nuance at a time won’t be captured by you, but it will be by plus minus. Which is why I’d be wise to ignore conjecture over actual data.

My conjecture, really isn’t conjecture, it’s as close to actual fact as I could have it. Which is Conley is playing really well. MVP well, I think. I can make the argument on raw data.

You can’t make a real substantive argument against it. It doesn’t exist.

[bondom34]

So what would be your evidence Clarkson/Gobert have significantly improved? Just curious.

Clarkson is at career highs in: pp100, TS+, onrtg, on-off amongst likely others, but those are the easiest to show his impact and how he's achieving it. Career highs in PER/WS/48/BPM.

Gobert has less obvious statistical indicators due to it mostly being defensive effort (more poorly captured by traditional stats), closest would probably be the career high in BPG, but not an A+ indicator by any means. Maybe there's more in the rim protection type stats if someone wants to dig. Having watched hundreds of Gobert games over his career I'm comfortable with my eye test in regards to his defensive effort level, it's up considerably (defensive speed stats from nba.com maybe?).

Posted it last page, but of guys contesting 8+ shots w/in 6 ft of the rim, Gobert is behind only Turner and Lopez in how much its effected opponents. And he's one of the higher ones in contests too, though not sure how it aligns with prior seasons.

Having seen him slouch some last year, guessing that's improved.

Clarkson might be one of the better 6th men at the moment too.

[eminence]

So what would be your evidence Clarkson/Gobert have significantly improved? Just curious.

Clarkson is at career highs in: pp100, TS+, onrtg, on-off amongst likely others, but those are the easiest to show his impact and how he's achieving it. Career highs in PER/WS/48/BPM.

Gobert has less obvious statistical indicators due to it mostly being defensive effort (more poorly captured by traditional stats), closest would probably be the career high in BPG, but not an A+ indicator by any means. Maybe there's more in the rim protection type stats if someone wants to dig. Having watched hundreds of Gobert games over his career I'm comfortable with my eye test in regards to his defensive effort level, it's up considerably (defensive speed stats from nba.com maybe?).

Posted it last page, but of guys contesting 8+ shots w/in 6 ft of the rim, Gobert is behind only Turner and Lopez in how much its effected opponents. And he's one of the higher ones in contests too, though not sure how it aligns with prior seasons.

Having seen him slouch some last year, guessing that's improved.

Clarkson might be one of the better 6th men at the moment too.

Nah, he was spectacular in that stat last season too. Inside of 6 ft he was 9.4 DFGA -12.8%

[bondom34]

And you keep misunderstanding my point of view. And you micro analyze NBA possessions from reading data. That’s impossible.

The nuances of what happens on the court can’t be captured by just what shots are taken and made.

Conley could clap and dance every time someone takes a shot, and if that helped, if it actually had a benefit, +/- would show it.

Conley getting the ball to guys in rhythm and knowing how to maximize his teammates every nuance at a time won’t be captured by you, but it will be by plus minus. Which is why I’d be wise to ignore conjecture over actual data.

My conjecture, really isn’t conjecture, it’s as close to actual fact as I could have it. Which is Conley is playing really well. MVP well, I think. I can make the argument on raw data.

You can’t make a real substantive argument against it. It doesn’t exist.

Or like...guys sometimes are wide open and make, sometimes they miss. You are making some conjecture. This is one of the wilder takes I've read in a while.

Actual data shows in general there's variance within 3 point shooting. Especially on open shooters, and the Jazz are both shooting the lights out and opponents missing wide open 3s per NBA.com. That's actual data too.

We're in a tiny sample, and 50s 3s and 100 possessions give or take is just....wild speculation. Conley's been good. But don't know what else to say.

[MyUniBroDavis]

So I can’t believe I have to say this

Mike Conley is not the mvp lmfao

This is the problem when people look at plus minus data as an end all argument rather than a part of a puzzle lol

Or KCP is the real lakers superstar and I’m tripping lmfao

[eminence]

I do think he should be an Allstar though.

Arguably even All-NBA? I'd have to think on that one a bit more, look at positional competition.

I'm interested to see what he does tonight without Donovan.

[Blackmill]

Wow, you really see how huge Embiid is when he's stood next to Howard.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Wow, you really see how huge Embiid is when he's stood next to Howard.

He’s almost as tall as Mike Conley

It’s kind of weird he hasn’t gotten much hype on here, he’s been an absolute monster and maybe is DPOY so far too.

[ShotCreator]

And you keep misunderstanding my point of view. And you micro analyze NBA possessions from reading data. That’s impossible.

The nuances of what happens on the court can’t be captured by just what shots are taken and made.

Conley could clap and dance every time someone takes a shot, and if that helped, if it actually had a benefit, +/- would show it.

Conley getting the ball to guys in rhythm and knowing how to maximize his teammates every nuance at a time won’t be captured by you, but it will be by plus minus. Which is why I’d be wise to ignore conjecture over actual data.

My conjecture, really isn’t conjecture, it’s as close to actual fact as I could have it. Which is Conley is playing really well. MVP well, I think. I can make the argument on raw data.

You can’t make a real substantive argument against it. It doesn’t exist.

Or like...guys sometimes are wide open and make, sometimes they miss. You are making some conjecture. This is one of the wilder takes I've read in a while.

Actual data shows in general there's variance within 3 point shooting. Especially on open shooters, and the Jazz are both shooting the lights out and opponents missing wide open 3s per NBA.com. That's actual data too.

We're in a tiny sample, and 50s 3s and 100 possessions give or take is just....wild speculation. Conley's been good. But don't know what else to say.

You just misunderstood my entire idea and ignored nuances of the game, again.

I do not care at all about 50 3’s or 100 possessions. You do.


You accused me of caring about small sample sizes and then referenced the tiniest amounts of shots in a Conley-no Gobert lineup and is still talking about it.

Gravity, shot location, quality of passes, timing of passes, communication. These are all things +/- will pick up. And you will never pick up by analyzing shot distribution from lineups.

And the only thing that makes me sure is the entir e picture. Utah’s huge improvement, Conley’s huge improvement and +/- splits.

Conley’s performance without Gobert and vice versa is a somewhat weak argument, but that’s exactly why I brought the data, because people claimed that would explain his extreme dominance on the court this year.


But again there’s not much here. I don’t think I can explain my POV any better right now.

[ShotCreator]

So what would be your evidence Clarkson/Gobert have significantly improved? Just curious.

Clarkson is at career highs in: pp100, TS+, onrtg, on-off amongst likely others, but those are the easiest to show his impact and how he's achieving it. Career highs in PER/WS/48/BPM.

Gobert has less obvious statistical indicators due to it mostly being defensive effort (more poorly captured by traditional stats), closest would probably be the career high in BPG, but not an A+ indicator by any means. Maybe there's more in the rim protection type stats if someone wants to dig. Having watched hundreds of Gobert games over his career I'm comfortable with my eye test in regards to his defensive effort level, it's up considerably (defensive speed stats from nba.com maybe?).

Or you know, +/- data.

[bondom34]

And you keep misunderstanding my point of view. And you micro analyze NBA possessions from reading data. That’s impossible.

The nuances of what happens on the court can’t be captured by just what shots are taken and made.

Conley could clap and dance every time someone takes a shot, and if that helped, if it actually had a benefit, +/- would show it.

Conley getting the ball to guys in rhythm and knowing how to maximize his teammates every nuance at a time won’t be captured by you, but it will be by plus minus. Which is why I’d be wise to ignore conjecture over actual data.

My conjecture, really isn’t conjecture, it’s as close to actual fact as I could have it. Which is Conley is playing really well. MVP well, I think. I can make the argument on raw data.

You can’t make a real substantive argument against it. It doesn’t exist.

Or like...guys sometimes are wide open and make, sometimes they miss. You are making some conjecture. This is one of the wilder takes I've read in a while.

Actual data shows in general there's variance within 3 point shooting. Especially on open shooters, and the Jazz are both shooting the lights out and opponents missing wide open 3s per NBA.com. That's actual data too.

We're in a tiny sample, and 50s 3s and 100 possessions give or take is just....wild speculation. Conley's been good. But don't know what else to say.

You just misunderstood my entire idea and ignored nuances of the game, again.

I do not care at all about 50 3’s or 100 possessions. You do.


You accused me of caring about small sample sizes and then referenced the tiniest amounts of shots in a Conley-no Gobert lineup and is still talking about it.

Gravity, shot location, quality of passes, timing of passes, communication. These are all things +/- will pick up. And you will never pick up by analyzing shot distribution from lineups.

And the only thing that makes me sure is the entir e picture. Utah’s huge improvement, Conley’s huge improvement and +/- splits.

Conley’s performance without Gobert and vice versa is a somewhat weak argument, but that’s exactly why I brought the data, because people claimed that would explain his extreme dominance on the court this year.


But again there’s not much here. I don’t think I can explain my POV any better right now.

You're using the sample that I did. Literally those shots are what was taken in the lineups you are using as data.

Utah's improvement is a lot because they have a competent backup 5 and the bench has been fantastic, along with them shooting so well. Clarkson has been huge for them and might be in the 6MOY running. Gobert in the DPOY running, and yes Conley's looked better but MVP or DPOY is just a hot take.

Your data was a small sample of lineups, in which the 3 point shooting was largely unsustainable (because in those lineups without Gobert, the defense was bad, the offense was a 125 O rtg). Seems a bit of missing the forest for the trees in saying you're seeing the whole picture and others aren't, when you've ignored how much better Clarkson has been and that they have Favors instead of Davis/Bradley among other things.

And to add, again, shooting has variance. It just does. Everything does.

I'll flat out say on its face this is a ridiculous take. And I don't really want to say it but it is.

You can make this same point with KCP on the Lakers, and it would be equally ridiculous. That's about all I can add.

Conley's been great. MVP? Nah, that's not close. And we're still working on a small sample, this is the exact problem with using plus/minus.

[eminence]

So what would be your evidence Clarkson/Gobert have significantly improved? Just curious.

Clarkson is at career highs in: pp100, TS+, onrtg, on-off amongst likely others, but those are the easiest to show his impact and how he's achieving it. Career highs in PER/WS/48/BPM.

Gobert has less obvious statistical indicators due to it mostly being defensive effort (more poorly captured by traditional stats), closest would probably be the career high in BPG, but not an A+ indicator by any means. Maybe there's more in the rim protection type stats if someone wants to dig. Having watched hundreds of Gobert games over his career I'm comfortable with my eye test in regards to his defensive effort level, it's up considerably (defensive speed stats from nba.com maybe?).

Or you know, +/- data.

I believe that would be touched on by Clarkson having a career high in On court rating and on-off (Gobert's actually at his career highs in both categories too).

[freethedevil]

And you keep misunderstanding my point of view. And you micro analyze NBA possessions from reading data. That’s impossible.

The nuances of what happens on the court can’t be captured by just what shots are taken and made.

Conley could clap and dance every time someone takes a shot, and if that helped, if it actually had a benefit, +/- would show it.

Conley getting the ball to guys in rhythm and knowing how to maximize his teammates every nuance at a time won’t be captured by you, but it will be by plus minus. Which is why I’d be wise to ignore conjecture over actual data.

My conjecture, really isn’t conjecture, it’s as close to actual fact as I could have it. Which is Conley is playing really well. MVP well, I think. I can make the argument on raw data.

You can’t make a real substantive argument against it. It doesn’t exist.

Mike conley isn't anwyhere close to mvp if you adjust for lineups. The "data" is worthless if its only team data lmao. PIPM has him at +2 LEBRON has him at +1.

Gobert on the other hand is +4.9. Think its safe to say the role player's +/- is a result of playing next to the best rs defender in the league, not him magically becoming an mvp lmao

[Goudelock]

2021 is wild. I just read someone seriously argue that Mike Conley is playing at MVP level.