Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

[GSP]

Here's his CORP valuations from his site for Lebron in 2012-2014 and 2016-2018.

Code: Select all

Tm      Yr    Off    Def    Tot   Port   CORP

MIA   2012   5.75   1.75   7.50     -2   27.8%
MIA   2013   5.75   1.50   7.25     -1   28.7%
MIA   2014   6.00   0.75   6.75     -1   25.7%

CLE   2016   5.50   1.25   6.75      0   26.5%
CLE   2017   5.50   0.75   6.25      0   22.9%
CLE   2018   5.50   0.25   5.75      0   20.1%

Without worrying about other players at all, my main point of contention here is easy to isolate. He's got 2016/17/18 all tied on offense, and also lower than any of 2012-2014 (but higher on portability).

For me, 18>17>16 on offense, and both 17 & 18 are higher than any Miami year (14 is arguable with 17). I think eye-test and PS results line up with this. 16 would be close but his outside shooting seemed pretty busted/inconsistent that year IMO. This difference of opinion is basically enough to put 16-18 >= 12-14 overall for me.

Also IMO 13/14 are clearly ahead of 2012 on offense, I don't agree with their offensive proximity that he's got across the three years.

The defensive narrative that he paints with these six valuations, I agree with.

It's honestly kinda shocking he rates 16-18 offense below the Miami years with the exception of 14 which I could see. The league environment even from just 14 to the last few years is drastically different. Much less rim protection, most teams play small and basically have a wing at the 4 these days not 2 legit bigs. But 12/13 don't have the improved skillset benefit of 14

He used to rate 11 Bron as his defensive peak. Is that still the case?

[limbo]

1. There are reasons to believe that Hakeem wouldn't be able to replicate Russell's impact. Just on defense alone - Russell was basically a GOAT transition defender. He always got back first, he had unreal quickness and speed for his size and he rarely made mistakes against two offensive players running through him. Hakeem was good, but inconsistent transition defender. He didn't always get back, he made some dubious steal attempts at times and I'm also less impressed by his horizontal defense. It doesn't mean that Hakeem wasn't great, but we're comparing him to GOAT.

Yeah, Russell didn't have 'Moses syndrome' as i like to call it. He wasn't a guy that camped under the basket offensively and tried to get every offensive rebound no matter the odds (mostly to the detriment of being out of positions defensively). He was also schematically maneuvering a lot at the top of the key for screens and hand-offs, which frequently allowed him a good position to get back. That being said, you simply have to admit the 60's standards for transition offense was hot distilled garbage compared to the eras that came later... Very rarely did i saw players in the 60's take the basketball on the fastbreak all the way down the court, despite having an open lane, and challenge whoever was waiting at the basket for a layup or at least a foul... Even the best offensive talents of the era like Jerry West and Elgin Baylor had this tendency, although obviously less so, but they would run the break with the ball and then stop on a dime for a tough 15 footer... You don't see players do that anymore for a long time because the average NBA player had gotten a lot better at driving to the rim and finishing or forcing the whistle, and if not that, they stop and pop from deep with greater efficiency now...

I also don't know where you even see 'horizontal' defense when it comes to Russell... That's not how the game was played in the 60's... In pretty much every 5-man unit Celtics threw on the court, Russell spend the least amount of time defending outside the paint out of any Celtics player. He was usually the guy that patrolled in and around the paint... the other four of his teammates were defending further up the court in front of him and contesting most of the jumpers made outside the paint. Russell would only go defend deeper up if his direct matchup was also playing deeper and was a potential threat, or if there was some sort of scramble where he was in the vicinity and could recover on a guy that got open for a jumper. If that's 'horizontal defense' it's a very watered down, minimalistic, prehistoric version of 'horizontal defense', not at all similar to how a guy like KG was buttering his bread as a defender, where he already started the defensive sequence much more further away from the basket, with less congestion around him to help clog up lanes and was then frequently put in PnR situations where he would be asked to effectively show on the ball-handler to prevent an easy drive or shot and then either switch onto him or sprint back to his guy.

[PistolPeteJR]

Here's his CORP valuations from his site for Lebron in 2012-2014 and 2016-2018.

Code: Select all

Tm      Yr    Off    Def    Tot   Port   CORP

MIA   2012   5.75   1.75   7.50     -2   27.8%
MIA   2013   5.75   1.50   7.25     -1   28.7%
MIA   2014   6.00   0.75   6.75     -1   25.7%

CLE   2016   5.50   1.25   6.75      0   26.5%
CLE   2017   5.50   0.75   6.25      0   22.9%
CLE   2018   5.50   0.25   5.75      0   20.1%

Without worrying about other players at all, my main point of contention here is easy to isolate. He's got 2016/17/18 all tied on offense, and also lower than any of 2012-2014 (but higher on portability).

For me, 18>17>16 on offense, and both 17 & 18 are higher than any Miami year (14 is arguable with 17). I think eye-test and PS results line up with this. 16 would be close but his outside shooting seemed pretty busted/inconsistent that year IMO. This difference of opinion is basically enough to put 16-18 >= 12-14 overall for me.

Also IMO 13/14 are clearly ahead of 2012 on offense, I don't agree with their offensive proximity that he's got across the three years.

The defensive narrative that he paints with these six valuations, I agree with.

It's honestly kinda shocking he rates 16-18 offense below the Miami years with the exception of 14 which I could see. The league environment even from just 14 to the last few years is drastically different. Much less rim protection, most teams play small and basically have a wing at the 4 these days not 2 legit bigs. But 12/13 don't have the improved skillset benefit of 14

He used to rate 11 Bron as his defensive peak. Is that still the case?

Yeah the way he's rated the Heat years as better offensively than the second-stint Cavs years is baffling to me, honestly. I really don't know what to make of it.

[limbo]

This.

His effort is clearly superior in his early Miami years (regular season, especially) compared to 2014 and beyond. That would explain some of the numbers, I think. But in terms of flat out ABILITY to get **** done, to me 2009, 2014, 2017 and 2018 are all versions that are better than 2012 and 2013. His game is simply more resilient those seasons due to superior ability - better shooting and better functional athleticism, which IMO more than offsets whatever defensive gap that exists. Big reason why I'd say the playoff runs from those seasons are also more of a 'breeze' compared to 2012 and 2013. Notable adversity only hit when they ran into clearly superior teams ('14 Spurs, 17-18 W's). Well, 2018 was just non-stop adversity but it was a **** team. 2012 and 2013 were good rosters on the other hand, but those runs were a grind from start to finish.

Why was LeBron's game more resilient in 2009 but not in 2010? Doesn't really make sense to me... The 2009 run to me is somewhat a fluke, because it combines LeBron's peak agility/athleticism with 46% shooting from mid-range... And that's just who LeBron was for a temporary stretch of games... Not actually a transmutable version of LeBron in a vacuum that could be run back 10 times and still produced more or less the same results regardless of opponent aka resiliency of which you spoke of.

Seems like you're getting old IG2, your memory is beginning to slip... The reason why the 2012 and 2013 runs were such grinds was because of everything and everyone else BUT LeBron... LeBron dominated in both of the series against the Pacers in 2012 and 2013 that ended up going to 6 and 7 games, respectively. LeBron dominated the 2012 Boston series, with obviously one of the best Playoff games of all-time, and LeBron had a great series vs. the Spurs in the 2013 Finals (first half was kind of iffy, the final couple of games he dominated).

Bosh missed basically the entire Pacers series in 2012 and most of the Celtics one, and the Heat were already ultra thin in the frontcourt. They were relying on Joel 'stone hands' Anthony for crying out loud. Wade was also battling injuries and it made him much worse than people probably realize. No spacing, no ability to penetrate or make plays, all of this exacerbated by his injuries and having to adopt a more off-ball role.

In 2013 against the Pacers, Wade averaged 15.5 ppg on 49.5%TS... and he was still much better than Chris Bosh. Bosh got his lunch taken by the a much more deep and physical Indiana frontcourt. They almost ended his career as we know it in that series...

That said, 2017/2018 LeBron does strike me as a more assured/crafty offensive player than the Heat version, with a better grasp on both how to run an offense and attack different defensive sets more effectively... But it's also true that playing offense in 2017/2018 is not really the same than it was in 2012/2013... Good luck trying to be cute offensively when the paint is packed with guys like Hibbert and Duncan and their teammates are basically shrinking the floor.

[70sFan]

That being said, you simply have to admit the 60's standards for transition offense was hot distilled garbage compared to the eras that came later... Very rarely did i saw players in the 60's take the basketball on the fastbreak all the way down the court, despite having an open lane, and challenge whoever was waiting at the basket for a layup or at least a foul... Even the best offensive talents of the era like Jerry West and Elgin Baylor had this tendency, although obviously less so, but they would run the break with the ball and then stop on a dime for a tough 15 footer... You don't see players do that anymore for a long time because the average NBA player had gotten a lot better at driving to the rim and finishing or forcing the whistle, and if not that, they stop and pop from deep with greater efficiency now...

Sorry, but this is not how players played in the 1960s... Teams prioritized transition offense and very few teams from later eras could run the fastbreak as fluid as 1960s teams. Players attacked shotblockers a lot, sometimes too much in fact. Besides, it's the first time I've seen someone suggesting that running the break by himself and attacking shotblocker is better idea than moving and passing the ball...

I also don't know where you even see 'horizontal' defense when it comes to Russell... That's not how the game was played in the 60's...

I've watched several Russell games and clips, in comparison to Hakeem he was more willing to defend perimeter players. I have 20 Russell and 30 Hakeem games/parts tracked and I came with this cocnlusion because I count them and caclulate on Excel sheets. Do you really think that I don't know how the game was played in the 1960s?

In pretty much every 5-man unit Celtics threw on the court, Russell spend the least amount of time defending outside the paint out of any Celtics player. He was usually the guy that patrolled in and around the paint... the other four of his teammates were defending further up the court in front of him and contesting most of the jumpers made outside the paint.

Sure, that's how center's role works... Do you think that Hakeem was any different?

Russell would only go defend deeper up if his direct matchup was also playing deeper and was a potential threat, or if there was some sort of scramble where he was in the vicinity and could recover on a guy that got open for a jumper.

Yeah, but not really. Russell switched on 45% of defended P&Rs in sample I have (in comparison - Hakeem switched 36% of defended P&Rs). It's unusually high number for a center, especially in the 1960s.

Not to mention that we have examples of Russell guarding perimeter players for extended periods. He guarded Baylor for several possessions in the 4th quarter of game 3 of 1963 finals as the main man. He switched onto Chet Walker in 1967 game available. He defended Jerry Lucas in 1966 games we have. So no, it's not only because of "scrambles". Russell was willing to defend perimeter players and he did it very well.

I'm still waiting for new full game from 1962 Finals, when I get it I will probably make a longer thread about it. Just keep in mind that you are wrong here - just because Russell played in the 1960s doesn't mean that he wasn't a good perimeter defender. Sure, his main role was to protect the paint and he often played as a one-man zone inside, but at the same time he showed more activity on perimeter than Hakeem usually did. Olajuwon was capable of doing similar things, but it wasn't within his tendencies - he was more sticked to the paint.

[SideshowBob]

Here's his CORP valuations from his site for Lebron in 2012-2014 and 2016-2018.

Code: Select all

Tm      Yr    Off    Def    Tot   Port   CORP

MIA   2012   5.75   1.75   7.50     -2   27.8%
MIA   2013   5.75   1.50   7.25     -1   28.7%
MIA   2014   6.00   0.75   6.75     -1   25.7%

CLE   2016   5.50   1.25   6.75      0   26.5%
CLE   2017   5.50   0.75   6.25      0   22.9%
CLE   2018   5.50   0.25   5.75      0   20.1%

Without worrying about other players at all, my main point of contention here is easy to isolate. He's got 2016/17/18 all tied on offense, and also lower than any of 2012-2014 (but higher on portability).

For me, 18>17>16 on offense, and both 17 & 18 are higher than any Miami year (14 is arguable with 17). I think eye-test and PS results line up with this. 16 would be close but his outside shooting seemed pretty busted/inconsistent that year IMO. This difference of opinion is basically enough to put 16-18 >= 12-14 overall for me.

Also IMO 13/14 are clearly ahead of 2012 on offense, I don't agree with their offensive proximity that he's got across the three years.

The defensive narrative that he paints with these six valuations, I agree with.

It's honestly kinda shocking he rates 16-18 offense below the Miami years with the exception of 14 which I could see. The league environment even from just 14 to the last few years is drastically different. Much less rim protection, most teams play small and basically have a wing at the 4 these days not 2 legit bigs. But 12/13 don't have the improved skillset benefit of 14

He used to rate 11 Bron as his defensive peak. Is that still the case?

09-12 all +1.75 on defense
2013 at +1.5

Those are the five highest ratings.

[Statlanta]

I thought he would address LeBron ball, the time of possession it takes for James to make the simplified playmaking decisions based off his athleticism but it wasn’t as featured. It at least is reflected in the Passer Rating

[Odinn21]

Here's his CORP valuations from his site for Lebron in 2012-2014 and 2016-2018.

Code: Select all

Tm      Yr    Off    Def    Tot   Port   CORP

MIA   2012   5.75   1.75   7.50     -2   27.8%
MIA   2013   5.75   1.50   7.25     -1   28.7%
MIA   2014   6.00   0.75   6.75     -1   25.7%

CLE   2016   5.50   1.25   6.75      0   26.5%
CLE   2017   5.50   0.75   6.25      0   22.9%
CLE   2018   5.50   0.25   5.75      0   20.1%

The defensive narrative that he paints with these six valuations, I agree with.

As I said earlier, this CORP numbers might not be up to date or reflective of this series because when he announced that he updated the CORP list for 2020 numbers, he also noted that he didn't make any changes/updates for the selections in the project suggesting that looking at those numbers wouldn't be entirely accurate.

About 2012-14 span having a higher value than 2016-18 on offense, I think it's important to recognize James' higher motor performances in regular seasons.
Here's some breakdown with OBPM and RAPM in regular season and playoffs.

OBPM

Spoiler:

2012-14 span;
8.4 obpm and 1.7 average rank in regular season for James, 7.0 obpm for top 5 average over 3 seasons, 5.9 obpm for top 10 average over 3 seasons
8.3 obpm and 1.0 average rank in playoffs for James, 6.1 obpm for top 5 average among 10+ gp players

2016-18 span;
6.9 obpm and 4.3 average rank in regular season for James, 7.6 obpm for top 5 average over 3 seasons, 6.7 obpm for top 10 average over 3 seasons
8.5 obpm and 3.0 average rank in playoffs for James (2.0 average rank among 10+ gp players), 7.2 obpm for top 5 average among 10+ gp players

Mind you, the Cavs stint has a higher postseason value due to a spike in 2018 playoffs while his obpm across 2012-14 was much more consistent (8.1, 8.4, 8.5).

RAPM

Spoiler:

He was in the top 1% for offense in all those 6 seasons. So, I don't think it matters particularly. On overall RAPM though, '12-'13-'16-'18 are in the top 1% but '14 is a clear with top 7% and '18 is a clear last with top 15%.

I mean if I say "James played with higher motor in regular seasons in Miami", it'd sound like I'd be making deductions from stats but I think we all already saw that. The numbers look like they agree with such argument.

[IG2]

Why was LeBron's game more resilient in 2009 but not in 2010? Doesn't really make sense to me... The 2009 run to me is somewhat a fluke, because it combines LeBron's peak agility/athleticism with 46% shooting from mid-range... And that's just who LeBron was for a temporary stretch of games... Not actually a transmutable version of LeBron in a vacuum that could be run back 10 times and still produced more or less the same results regardless of opponent aka resiliency of which you spoke of.

Actually, I normally do lump 2010 with 09/14/17/18 and regret not including it in my previous post. I absolutely would take 2010 over 2012. 2013 is a toss up. The higher resiliency I speak of has as much to do with athleticism as shooting. As far as outlier mid-range shooting is concerned, that's a common occurrence in most of LeBron's top playoff runs. 2009/2014/2016/2017/2018 all feature mid-range shooting percentages between 42-49%, with 09/16/17/18 all being 45%+. I wouldn't necessarily pass it off as fluky. I think he simply has higher concentration levels in the playoffs.

The reason why the 2012 and 2013 runs were such grinds was because of everything and everyone else BUT LeBron

That's true, but LeBron's more opportunistic style of scoring in 2012 (and a little less so in 2013) meant he wasn't as adept at grabbing a game by its balls and dictating it. That to me does play a role in some of those prolonged series'. He also had a couple of subpar series' in 2013 playoffs by his standards - ECS against Chicago and Finals vs. Spurs. Some of his other versions avoid those IMO.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I don't see 2009 as Lebron's peak because of 2010 and 2011 playoff performances. You can't just take a single year in a vacuum. Peak has to consecutive. I think the 2012 to 2013 stretch which Ben chose is his peak. From 2014 onwards his defense declined a lot with a somewhat major upstick in the 2016 playoffs. In 2017 and especially 2018 he just wasn't even a good defender. The extra offensive numbers which resulted from super high usage and weaker defense league wide doesn't impress me that much. Plus regular season does matter to an extent. Lebron by 2017 just didn't have the motor to be an elite regular season player anymore.

He had an elbow injury in 2010 and the whole Delonte West situation potentially played a part in his mental fragility (lower motor too) . In 2011 he was a totally different player as he gained too much weight and lost a lot of athleticism.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Here's his CORP valuations from his site for Lebron in 2012-2014 and 2016-2018.

Code: Select all

Tm      Yr    Off    Def    Tot   Port   CORP

MIA   2012   5.75   1.75   7.50     -2   27.8%
MIA   2013   5.75   1.50   7.25     -1   28.7%
MIA   2014   6.00   0.75   6.75     -1   25.7%

CLE   2016   5.50   1.25   6.75      0   26.5%
CLE   2017   5.50   0.75   6.25      0   22.9%
CLE   2018   5.50   0.25   5.75      0   20.1%

Without worrying about other players at all, my main point of contention here is easy to isolate. He's got 2016/17/18 all tied on offense, and also lower than any of 2012-2014 (but higher on portability).

For me, 18>17>16 on offense, and both 17 & 18 are higher than any Miami year (14 is arguable with 17). I think eye-test and PS results line up with this. 16 would be close but his outside shooting seemed pretty busted/inconsistent that year IMO. This difference of opinion is basically enough to put 16-18 >= 12-14 overall for me.

Also IMO 13/14 are clearly ahead of 2012 on offense, I don't agree with their offensive proximity that he's got across the three years.

The defensive narrative that he paints with these six valuations, I agree with.

It's honestly kinda shocking he rates 16-18 offense below the Miami years with the exception of 14 which I could see. The league environment even from just 14 to the last few years is drastically different. Much less rim protection, most teams play small and basically have a wing at the 4 these days not 2 legit bigs. But 12/13 don't have the improved skillset benefit of 14

He used to rate 11 Bron as his defensive peak. Is that still the case?

09-12 Lebron all received a defensive evaluation of 1.75. Idk if he favors one particularly.

[LukaTheGOAT]

This.

His effort is clearly superior in his early Miami years (regular season, especially) compared to 2014 and beyond. That would explain some of the numbers, I think. But in terms of flat out ABILITY to get **** done, to me 2009, 2014, 2017 and 2018 are all versions that are better than 2012 and 2013. His game is simply more resilient those seasons due to superior ability - better shooting and better functional athleticism, which IMO more than offsets whatever defensive gap that exists. Big reason why I'd say the playoff runs from those seasons are also more of a 'breeze' compared to 2012 and 2013. Notable adversity only hit when they ran into clearly superior teams ('14 Spurs, 17-18 W's). Well, 2018 was just non-stop adversity but it was a **** team. 2012 and 2013 were good rosters on the other hand, but those runs were a grind from start to finish.

Why was LeBron's game more resilient in 2009 but not in 2010? Doesn't really make sense to me... The 2009 run to me is somewhat a fluke, because it combines LeBron's peak agility/athleticism with 46% shooting from mid-range... And that's just who LeBron was for a temporary stretch of games... Not actually a transmutable version of LeBron in a vacuum that could be run back 10 times and still produced more or less the same results regardless of opponent aka resiliency of which you spoke of.

Seems like you're getting old IG2, your memory is beginning to slip... The reason why the 2012 and 2013 runs were such grinds was because of everything and everyone else BUT LeBron... LeBron dominated in both of the series against the Pacers in 2012 and 2013 that ended up going to 6 and 7 games, respectively. LeBron dominated the 2012 Boston series, with obviously one of the best Playoff games of all-time, and LeBron had a great series vs. the Spurs in the 2013 Finals (first half was kind of iffy, the final couple of games he dominated).

Bosh missed basically the entire Pacers series in 2012 and most of the Celtics one, and the Heat were already ultra thin in the frontcourt. They were relying on Joel 'stone hands' Anthony for crying out loud. Wade was also battling injuries and it made him much worse than people probably realize. No spacing, no ability to penetrate or make plays, all of this exacerbated by his injuries and having to adopt a more off-ball role.

In 2013 against the Pacers, Wade averaged 15.5 ppg on 49.5%TS... and he was still much better than Chris Bosh. Bosh got his lunch taken by the a much more deep and physical Indiana frontcourt. They almost ended his career as we know it in that series...

That said, 2017/2018 LeBron does strike me as a more assured/crafty offensive player than the Heat version, with a better grasp on both how to run an offense and attack different defensive sets more effectively... But it's also true that playing offense in 2017/2018 is not really the same than it was in 2012/2013... Good luck trying to be cute offensively when the paint is packed with guys like Hibbert and Duncan and their teammates are basically shrinking the floor.

2009 Lebron did shoot abnormally well from the mid-range in the PS, but he also shot well below his standards from 3 I know in the Orlando Magic Series. I would also argue that impact metrics consider 09 to be his peak, in large part because they consider it to be his best defensive season by far and I think that is fair. I also think his motor was higher that season than ever before which is why his defense was better, his offensive rebounding was better, and also he was able to have scoring aggression unlike anything we've seen before. That PS he around the greatest scoring rate ever while having a rTS% of over 9%. No one comes close to that and it is reflected in him having the greatest PS ScoreVal ever. Heck against the #1 defense in Orlando, he average 38, 8, and 8 on good efficiency. I'm not certain any other version of Lebron could do that.

[LukaTheGOAT]

09 Lebron was his single season peak. It was the last full season by him before the decline of his athleticism and hairline.

[JustJoe]

Why was LeBron's game more resilient in 2009 but not in 2010? Doesn't really make sense to me... The 2009 run to me is somewhat a fluke, because it combines LeBron's peak agility/athleticism with 46% shooting from mid-range... And that's just who LeBron was for a temporary stretch of games... Not actually a transmutable version of LeBron in a vacuum that could be run back 10 times and still produced more or less the same results regardless of opponent aka resiliency of which you spoke of.

Actually, I normally do lump 2010 with 09/14/17/18 and regret not including it in my previous post. I absolutely would take 2010 over 2012. 2013 is a toss up. The higher resiliency I speak of has as much to do with athleticism as shooting. As far as outlier mid-range shooting is concerned, that's a common occurrence in most of LeBron's top playoff runs. 2009/2014/2016/2017/2018 all feature mid-range shooting percentages between 42-49%, with 09/16/17/18 all being 45%+. I wouldn't necessarily pass it off as fluky. I think he simply has higher concentration levels in the playoffs.

The reason why the 2012 and 2013 runs were such grinds was because of everything and everyone else BUT LeBron

That's true, but LeBron's more opportunistic style of scoring in 2012 (and a little less so in 2013) meant he wasn't as adept at grabbing a game by its balls and dictating it. That to me does play a role in some of those prolonged series'. He also had a couple of subpar series' in 2013 playoffs by his standards - ECS against Chicago and Finals vs. Spurs. Some of his other versions avoid those IMO.

You can't compare 2009 to 2014, that's a five season gap. From 2008-2012 Lebron shot 37.7% on two from 16+ feet, from 2013-2018 he shot 41.4%. His 2009 PS is 9 percentage points higher than any other season during that 2008-2012 stretch, clear outlier.

[PistolPeteJR]

Why was LeBron's game more resilient in 2009 but not in 2010? Doesn't really make sense to me... The 2009 run to me is somewhat a fluke, because it combines LeBron's peak agility/athleticism with 46% shooting from mid-range... And that's just who LeBron was for a temporary stretch of games... Not actually a transmutable version of LeBron in a vacuum that could be run back 10 times and still produced more or less the same results regardless of opponent aka resiliency of which you spoke of.

Actually, I normally do lump 2010 with 09/14/17/18 and regret not including it in my previous post. I absolutely would take 2010 over 2012. 2013 is a toss up. The higher resiliency I speak of has as much to do with athleticism as shooting. As far as outlier mid-range shooting is concerned, that's a common occurrence in most of LeBron's top playoff runs. 2009/2014/2016/2017/2018 all feature mid-range shooting percentages between 42-49%, with 09/16/17/18 all being 45%+. I wouldn't necessarily pass it off as fluky. I think he simply has higher concentration levels in the playoffs.

The reason why the 2012 and 2013 runs were such grinds was because of everything and everyone else BUT LeBron

That's true, but LeBron's more opportunistic style of scoring in 2012 (and a little less so in 2013) meant he wasn't as adept at grabbing a game by its balls and dictating it. That to me does play a role in some of those prolonged series'. He also had a couple of subpar series' in 2013 playoffs by his standards - ECS against Chicago and Finals vs. Spurs. Some of his other versions avoid those IMO.

You can't compare 2009 to 2014, that's a five season gap. From 2008-2012 Lebron shot 37.7% on two from 16+ feet, from 2013-2018 he shot 41.4%. His 2009 PS is 9 percentage points higher than any other season during that 2008-2012 stretch, clear outlier.

It is well documented that LeBron has altered his shooting form multiple times throughout his career. I wouldn’t chalk ‘09 to fluke as such.

Someone would need to dissect this in more detail though. I don’t have time.

[toodles23]

Here's his CORP valuations from his site for Lebron in 2012-2014 and 2016-2018.

Code: Select all

Tm      Yr    Off    Def    Tot   Port   CORP

MIA   2012   5.75   1.75   7.50     -2   27.8%
MIA   2013   5.75   1.50   7.25     -1   28.7%
MIA   2014   6.00   0.75   6.75     -1   25.7%

CLE   2016   5.50   1.25   6.75      0   26.5%
CLE   2017   5.50   0.75   6.25      0   22.9%
CLE   2018   5.50   0.25   5.75      0   20.1%

Without worrying about other players at all, my main point of contention here is easy to isolate. He's got 2016/17/18 all tied on offense, and also lower than any of 2012-2014 (but higher on portability).

For me, 18>17>16 on offense, and both 17 & 18 are higher than any Miami year (14 is arguable with 17). I think eye-test and PS results line up with this. 16 would be close but his outside shooting seemed pretty busted/inconsistent that year IMO. This difference of opinion is basically enough to put 16-18 >= 12-14 overall for me.

Also IMO 13/14 are clearly ahead of 2012 on offense, I don't agree with their offensive proximity that he's got across the three years.

The defensive narrative that he paints with these six valuations, I agree with.

It seems like he thinks 2016 Lebron's worse shooting than '17 and '18 was statistical noise and not something "real", but I disagree - his shot looked more consistent through the season and his stroke a bit smoother. To me there was genuine improvement, and he also continued to improve his reads, passing, and skillset every year, and I don't see any real difference between those three years in terms of functional athleticism on offense (if anything he seemed a touch quicker in the halfcourt in '17 and '18, though defense is of course another story).

As for '12-'14 vs. '16-'18 on offense, I wonder if he's rewarding Heat Lebron for having a better and more consistent motor through the regular season, or if he thinks Heat Lebron with his Cavs spacing would obliterate teams to an even greater extent than he actually did, but in the playoffs I'm taking the 2nd stint Cavs Lebron. Some qualitative differences between Miami and 2nd stint Cavs:

- His straight line speed and vertical dropped off some in Cleveland due to age but the 20 or so pounds he shed led to an improvement in his quickness/shake in the halfcourt, on top of adding some new dribble moves to his game (Kyrie inspired?)

- His skillset continued to expand - his post arsenal became more diverse, as did his PnR game (he started putting his man in jail a lot more often for example). He also hunted mismatches and embraced bullyball against smaller players a lot more in these years

- His reads and passing ability continued to expand, as Ben noted in the video, as did his resilience and ability to "solve" any defense thrown at him

The one thing that gives pause though is that the Heat's spacing in a lot of lineups sucked, and that Wade was such a bad fit, particularly in the '13 and '14 playoffs when he was hurt and an active drag on the team. In the 2013 playoffs he had a -14.6 on/off and in 2014 it was -7.8.

There's a massive amount of noise with those samples of course but it's hard to see what value those versions of Wade were providing next to Lebron - his entire game as based around attacking the rim, and when he couldn't do effectively in those playoffs, what value was he providing? He couldn't shoot threes at all and hurt their spacing, his playmaking relied on collapsing the D on his drives, and his scoring was inefficient. As a backup he was still useful but with Lebron on the floor they were way better off with a spot up shooter.

Also I'll always view Lebron bulking up in Miami as a mistake, assuming that was the reason for the stark decline in athleticism in 2011. The added strength didn't seem to help much, but the quickness he lost really hurt his game. Watching him from 2009 and 2010 compared to 2011 is night and day, and in realtime it was like he aged 7 years in one offseason.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think the thing I'm most taken aback by from Ben's evaluations is that he is so low on Lebron's portability. Unless he has upgraded it, 2012 rated out as -2 in port and 2013 -1 in port. This means he believes Miami Lebron is less portable than 2019 and 2020 Luka Doncic who graded as a 0 in portability, as well as James Harden who also got a 0 in port. Portability is the thing holding Lebron back from the GOAT peak, so I must ask? Is Lebron really that much harder to play with/ more ball-dominant in comparison to the other guys?

[LA Bird]

I am a bit disappointed with the LeBron video. I thought ElGee would go into a detailed comparison between specific LeBron seasons but instead it ended up being general commentary over LeBron highlights which could be found from any of his prime years. There was no mention of 16/17 at all besides in the intro and the argument for 12/13 over 09/10 seemed fairly weak.

• One of his graphs showed LeBron as one of the best scorers ever but he didn't explain why he chose a below career average scoring stretch both in playoffs volume and efficiency in 12/13 over his best or second best in 09/10.
• Lost within all the analysis of LeBron's incredible passing ability is that his own passer rating metric had LeBron peaking in 2010.
• He talked about how LeBron's defense in Miami was more "cerebral" than his earlier "brute force athleticism" but that says nothing about the effectiveness of either approach. Shaq is a better offensive player for example with brute force than many other players who are more cerebral than him.
• Miami LeBron's better shooting from both mid range and from 3 was one of the reasons mentioned as to why he was harder to stop when defenses packed the paint but ElGee didn't say anything about the efficiency dropoff in the 12/13 playoffs. Everyone remembers the iconic G7 when LeBron hit his jumpers but he was overall a poor shooter in those two playoffs:

LeBron FG% outside paint (mid range + 3pt)
2009/10: 36.1% on 10.6 attempts per 36 in RS -> 40.2% on 9.9 attempts per 36 in PO
2012/13: 41.5% on 8.6 attempts per 36 in RS -> 34.7% on 8.3 attempts per 36 in PO

Miami LeBron checks the most boxes from a legacy standpoint and it's easy to see it as a best of both worlds, an ideal version of James which combined the athleticism of his first Cavs run and the basketball mastery of his second Cavs run. But IMO, he lost more in athleticism than he gained back in basketball IQ when he left Cleveland and by the time his smarts reached GOAT levels later on, he was already too far from his athletic peak. 09/10 LeBron remains his best two year stretch to me.

[colts18]

Watching some 09 LeBron games. It's crazy seeing him as the first offensive player to get upcourt on the inbounds sprinting as fast as he can. I'm too used to older LeBron being the last one there walking so gingerly up the court.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I am a bit disappointed with the LeBron video. I thought ElGee would go into a detailed comparison between specific LeBron seasons but instead it ended up being general commentary over LeBron highlights which could be found from any of his prime years. There was no mention of 16/17 at all besides in the intro and the argument for 12/13 over 09/10 seemed fairly weak.

• One of his graphs showed LeBron as one of the best scorers ever but he didn't explain why he chose a below career average scoring stretch both in playoffs volume and efficiency in 12/13 over his best or second best in 09/10.
• Lost within all the analysis of LeBron's incredible passing ability is that his own passer rating metric had LeBron peaking in 2010.
• He talked about how LeBron's defense in Miami was more "cerebral" than his earlier "brute force athleticism" but that says nothing about the effectiveness of either approach. Shaq is a better offensive player for example with brute force than many other players who are more cerebral than him.
• Miami LeBron's better shooting from both mid range and from 3 was one of the reasons mentioned as to why he was harder to stop when defenses packed the paint but ElGee didn't say anything about the efficiency dropoff in the 12/13 playoffs. Everyone remembers the iconic G7 when LeBron hit his jumpers but he was overall a poor shooter in those two playoffs:

LeBron FG% outside paint (mid range + 3pt)
2009/10: 36.1% on 10.6 attempts per 36 in RS -> 40.2% on 9.9 attempts per 36 in PO
2012/13: 41.5% on 8.6 attempts per 36 in RS -> 34.7% on 8.3 attempts per 36 in PO

Miami LeBron checks the most boxes from a legacy standpoint and it's easy to see it as a best of both worlds, an ideal version of James which combined the athleticism of his first Cavs run and the basketball mastery of his second Cavs run. But IMO, he lost more in athleticism than he gained back in basketball IQ when he left Cleveland and by the time his smarts reached GOAT levels later on, he was already too far from his athletic peak. 09/10 LeBron remains his best two year stretch to me.

I think 2010 Lebron is dampened a bit by the PS injury in 2010 (elbow) and the Delonte situation. He did not play well the final few games against the Celtics, and while we can assume if things were normal, he would have played better, I guess that is a hypothetical. I imagine he believes that Lebron's shooting in 12 and 13 for the PS were abnormally bad, and if you ran a simulation, he would shoot better from the perimeter in those playoffs based on his regular seasons.

Also maybe a hot take, but 2016 Lebron's defense in the PS is better than 2013 Lebron's at least in my opinion.