Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#901 » by Statlanta » Tue Mar 2, 2021 8:07 pm

70sFan wrote:I wish we had as much discussion about other players, especially Kareem and Walton :D

I watched those videos post discussion. It made me appreciate Walton's defense more. On the flip side it made me dislike Kareem's rebounding even more especially for a guy his size and the lack of notable bigs at the covered period
The Greatest of All Time debate in basketball is essentially who has the greatest basketball resume of the player who has the best highlights instead of who is the best player
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#902 » by Odinn21 » Tue Mar 2, 2021 8:09 pm

70sFan wrote:I wish we had as much discussion about other players, especially Kareem and Walton :D

By the way, I'd love to see Ben breaking down Julius Erving athleticism in similar way to James. Many people view Doctor J as a dunker, but he was truly among the most athletic players ever - especially before the merger.

Guaranteed things that'll get you an audience;
- Criticizing Wilt
- Bird&Magic rivalry
- Jordan
- Shaq&Kobe duo
- Duncan&Garnett comparison
- James
:D :D

Shame that Kareem, Walton and Robinson episodes drew far less attention. They are the bottom 3 in views by some distance.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#903 » by penbeast0 » Tue Mar 2, 2021 8:30 pm

Statlanta wrote:
70sFan wrote:I wish we had as much discussion about other players, especially Kareem and Walton :D

I watched those videos post discussion. It made me appreciate Walton's defense more. On the flip side it made me dislike Kareem's rebounding even more especially for a guy his size and the lack of notable bigs at the covered period


I think Kareem gets ripped on too much for his rebounding because he played forever and deemphasized rebounding to save energy in the 80s. In the 70s, he was a good rebounder; his rebound rate for that decade is over 18, better than, say, Jokic's today. He was never a great rebounder and the inevitable comparisons to Wilt and Russell who were among the GOATS make him look worse than he was, but he was decent. Now, in the 80s, he slid down to poor as he got older.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#904 » by penbeast0 » Tue Mar 2, 2021 8:34 pm

frica wrote:I do wonder how Eaton and Bol would have fared in the 60s.
Actually let's go back further.

What's the last year of NBL/BAA/NBA where Manute Bol could have feasibly won MVP?
Imagine Bol defending the basket where the opposing midgets have zero range and there's basically no key. Nigh-unbeatable. 40-50% block rate would be possibly in some games.


Anytime before 1944 if he plays in a different league than Mikan he's got a chance; can you imagine him in a league with no defensive goaltending rule. They would have had to put a man to body him on every shot, to knock him out of the way. It would have been a truly ugly and horrible game to watch.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#905 » by Odinn21 » Tue Mar 2, 2021 8:55 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Statlanta wrote:
70sFan wrote:I wish we had as much discussion about other players, especially Kareem and Walton :D

I watched those videos post discussion. It made me appreciate Walton's defense more. On the flip side it made me dislike Kareem's rebounding even more especially for a guy his size and the lack of notable bigs at the covered period


I think Kareem gets ripped on too much for his rebounding because he played forever and deemphasized rebounding to save energy in the 80s. In the 70s, he was a good rebounder; his rebound rate for that decade is over 18, better than, say, Jokic's today. He was never a great rebounder and the inevitable comparisons to Wilt and Russell who were among the GOATS make him look worse than he was, but he was decent. Now, in the 80s, he slid down to poor as he got older.

Kareem wasn't a goat rebounding force but he upped his rebounding efforts in the playoffs greatly.

17.8 rpg against Reed's 12.2 in '70 playoffs
15.6 rpg against Thurmond's 10.2 and Lucas' 10.0 in '71 playoffs
17.2 rpg against Chamberlain's 18.8 in '71 playoffs
18.5 rpg against Unseld's 19.0 in '71 playoffs
19.0 rpg against Thurmond's 17.8 in '72 playoffs
17.5 rpg against Chamberlain's 19.3 in '72 playoffs
16.2 rpg against Clyde Lee's 17.0 in '73 playoffs
12.1 rpg against Cowens' 9.9 in '74 playoffs
16.0 rpg against Walton's 14.8 in '77 playoffs
13.7 rpg against Webster's 14.0 in '78 playoffs
12.2 rpg against Sikma's 9.8 in '79 playoffs
16.7 rpg against Moses' 17.7 in '81 playoffs

From 1970 to 1981, Kareem's rpg numbers went from 14.1 rpg in reg. season games to 15.7 rpg in playoffs games.
In the 20 playoffs series he played in, Kareem led in rpg 14 times. The 6 times he didn't were against Wilt (x2), Unseld, Moses, Wesbter and Clyde Lee. Wilt is the only player who outrebounded Kareem by more than 1 rpg gap.

I think Kareem's rebounding was better than the credit he gets for it, with some margin.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#906 » by 70sFan » Tue Mar 2, 2021 9:15 pm

Statlanta wrote:
70sFan wrote:I wish we had as much discussion about other players, especially Kareem and Walton :D

I watched those videos post discussion. It made me appreciate Walton's defense more. On the flip side it made me dislike Kareem's rebounding even more especially for a guy his size and the lack of notable bigs at the covered period

1. Kareem was elite rebounder in his prime. He wasn't a great offensive rebounder but he didn't have the tools necessary for that. His defensive rebounding is absolutely elite until 1979.

2. Lack of notable bigs? For starters - peak Walton is absolutely notable. Then you have Moses who won the MVP in 1979. Then you have prime Artis Gilmore, Bob Lanier, Dave Cowens, Wes Unseld, Robert Parish, Bob McAdoo... The league was stacked with talent at center spot in the late 1970s.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#907 » by frica » Wed Mar 3, 2021 10:09 am

I think Kareem's rebound numbers are also muted because he played alongside other great rebounders generally.
Can only grab so many balls without stealing them from your teammates after all.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#908 » by Reservoirdawgs » Wed Mar 3, 2021 4:22 pm

I have really enjoyed these videos. Does anyone know if ElGee plans on actually ranking the peaks at some point? I get that is very much a secondary part of his Greatest Peaks series and I am way enjoying the video and his analysis from watching the film, but a guilty part of me does like seeing a ranking at the end of the day.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#909 » by Max123 » Wed Mar 3, 2021 8:35 pm

Reservoirdawgs wrote:I have really enjoyed these videos. Does anyone know if ElGee plans on actually ranking the peaks at some point? I get that is very much a secondary part of his Greatest Peaks series and I am way enjoying the video and his analysis from watching the film, but a guilty part of me does like seeing a ranking at the end of the day.


The last part of the series will be ranking these peaks. I don't know whether it will definitively rank all the peaks but at the very least it will be a top 5/7/10 type of ranking. Also you can check out his evaluations of different greats' peaks on his website backpicks.com.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#910 » by Vladimir777 » Thu Mar 4, 2021 12:55 am

Reservoirdawgs wrote:I have really enjoyed these videos. Does anyone know if ElGee plans on actually ranking the peaks at some point? I get that is very much a secondary part of his Greatest Peaks series and I am way enjoying the video and his analysis from watching the film, but a guilty part of me does like seeing a ranking at the end of the day.


I understand the guilt feeling, but never feel guilt for enjoying rankings and lists! I am a list-person, and have about 100+ books in my house that involve list-making at any given time. :)
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#911 » by nolang1 » Thu Mar 4, 2021 3:05 am

70sFan wrote:
limbo wrote:But maybe a league-wide adoption and optimisation of smallball helped older LeBron in being able to be more effective offensively with less resistance waiting for him in the paint and teams not being able to as effectively load up his side of the floor in fear of getting threes rained on them. It's definitely something that seems plausible.


This is very important and overlooked point. LeBron was always huge (peaking in Miami at around 270 lbs) but he rarely was the biggest man on the floor in the late 2010s. Right now, even with dropping weight to ~250 lbs, he's often the biggest and strongest player on the court. For someone like James it creates additional physical advantage that he didn't enjoy to the same degree back then, despite being more athletic and bigger.


That's not as big of a factor as him just continuing to refine his game by A) knowing when and where to use his strength advantage rather than underutilizing it out of fear of being called for offensive fouls and B) getting better at finishing below the rim since when posting up you don't have a lot of momentum going to the hoop to take off and dunk.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#912 » by Odinn21 » Thu Mar 4, 2021 5:25 am

Durant video is up for the highest tier on Patreon.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#913 » by Djoker » Fri Mar 5, 2021 5:38 pm

I thought I understood how Ben Taylor analyzes portability but I really don't. I looked at some of his grades... Why is prime Steve Nash a large negative for portability? Wouldn't his incredible passing and shooting scale really well on good teams? Like I can't imagine a team that doesn't get better adding Nash.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#914 » by sansterre » Fri Mar 5, 2021 5:47 pm

Djoker wrote:I thought I understood how Ben Taylor analyzes portability but I really don't. I looked at some of his grades... Why is prime Steve Nash a large negative for portability? Wouldn't his incredible passing and shooting scale really well on good teams? Like I can't imagine a team that doesn't get better adding Nash.

The real problem (I infer) is that Nash *must* have the ball in his hands for 80% of his value. He's not an off-ball passer like Bird (or more accurately, never needed to be). If he doesn't have the ball he's not much of a rebounder or defender. He becomes an excellent spot-up shooter and that's it, which is good but it's a massive step down in value from being one of the best ball-dominant offensive players ever. If you pair Nash with Kobe/LeBron/Wade/Jordan/Iverson/Carmelo/TMac or any of the other strong 30%+ usage ball-dominant players you lose out (some) because all of those players need the ball to generate most of their value.

Basically, I read his portability as a "How much of this player's value would he retain if added to a 55-60 win team?" And a 55-60 win team likely already has a ball-dominant player that drives the offense. That's how a Ben Wallace can be more 'portable' than a Steve Nash, even if Nash is the better player, because Wallace retains a larger amount of his value when added to a strong roster than a Nash might.

I think the concerns are slightly overstated, but I think I understand where they come from.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#915 » by PistolPeteJR » Fri Mar 5, 2021 5:49 pm

VanWest82 wrote:Lebron has definitely lost a lot defensively from 09-11 era but the gains he made in offensive versatility 12-13 (e.g. playing out of the post, improved consistency on his outside jumper, becoming at least competent off ball) far outweighed the dip in athleticism and energy on the other end. No one is ever going to throw a scheme at Lebron again and have that be the reason he lost. That stuff was still happening in 2010 and 2011, and so just because he didn't get to play a team who took things away from him on offense in 09 that doesn't mean was actually superior for that one year. He was just luckier.

I agree with other posters who've mentioned how fortunate Lebron has been over the last 5+ years with three point boom and introduction of all the zone/switching. Back in 2013 he still had to get through tough and physical front courts that challenged him on shots in the paint. The degree of difficulty was greater. He was at that sweet spot in his career where he'd unlocked everything offensively but still had the energy to defend on a nightly basis in Spo's help and recover scheme. His defense post 2013 is overrated.


He benefits from that a ton nowadays though because he's completely mastered PnR switching compared to '12 and '13.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#916 » by Jaivl » Fri Mar 5, 2021 6:11 pm

sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:I thought I understood how Ben Taylor analyzes portability but I really don't. I looked at some of his grades... Why is prime Steve Nash a large negative for portability? Wouldn't his incredible passing and shooting scale really well on good teams? Like I can't imagine a team that doesn't get better adding Nash.

The real problem (I infer) is that Nash *must* have the ball in his hands for 80% of his value. He's not an off-ball passer like Bird (or more accurately, never needed to be). If he doesn't have the ball he's not much of a rebounder or defender. He becomes an excellent spot-up shooter and that's it, which is good but it's a massive step down in value from being one of the best ball-dominant offensive players ever. If you pair Nash with Kobe/LeBron/Wade/Jordan/Iverson/Carmelo/TMac or any of the other strong 30%+ usage ball-dominant players you lose out (some) because all of those players need the ball to generate most of their value.

Basically, I read his portability as a "How much of this player's value would he retain if added to a 55-60 win team?" And a 55-60 win team likely already has a ball-dominant player that drives the offense. That's how a Ben Wallace can be more 'portable' than a Steve Nash, even if Nash is the better player, because Wallace retains a larger amount of his value when added to a strong roster than a Nash might.

I think the concerns are slightly overstated, but I think I understand where they come from.

Doesn't really make a lot of sense, cause there's *zero* opportunity cost to have the ball in Nash's hands. Guys like Thomas, Kidd I get - but not a single "shared" offense has offered better results than what Nash managed. You just can't get any better. Same with Magic.

(I understand it's Taylor's argument, not yours)
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#917 » by sansterre » Fri Mar 5, 2021 6:29 pm

Jaivl wrote:
sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:I thought I understood how Ben Taylor analyzes portability but I really don't. I looked at some of his grades... Why is prime Steve Nash a large negative for portability? Wouldn't his incredible passing and shooting scale really well on good teams? Like I can't imagine a team that doesn't get better adding Nash.

The real problem (I infer) is that Nash *must* have the ball in his hands for 80% of his value. He's not an off-ball passer like Bird (or more accurately, never needed to be). If he doesn't have the ball he's not much of a rebounder or defender. He becomes an excellent spot-up shooter and that's it, which is good but it's a massive step down in value from being one of the best ball-dominant offensive players ever. If you pair Nash with Kobe/LeBron/Wade/Jordan/Iverson/Carmelo/TMac or any of the other strong 30%+ usage ball-dominant players you lose out (some) because all of those players need the ball to generate most of their value.

Basically, I read his portability as a "How much of this player's value would he retain if added to a 55-60 win team?" And a 55-60 win team likely already has a ball-dominant player that drives the offense. That's how a Ben Wallace can be more 'portable' than a Steve Nash, even if Nash is the better player, because Wallace retains a larger amount of his value when added to a strong roster than a Nash might.

I think the concerns are slightly overstated, but I think I understand where they come from.

Doesn't really make a lot of sense, cause there's *zero* opportunity cost to have the ball in Nash's hands. Guys like Thomas, Kidd I get - but not a single "shared" offense has offered better results than what Nash managed. You just can't get any better. Same with Magic.

(I understand it's Taylor's argument, not yours)

I don't dispute your point, but I don't think that has anything to do with what Taylor is talking about. He isn't asking "Does this player add to the team?", he's asking "what percentage of their normal value do they retain when being added onto a contender?" Of course Nash still makes the team better. The theory is simply that he doesn't add *as much* to a contender as he would to a weaker team.

Imagine adding Steve Nash to . . . the 1990 Chicago Bulls (a 55-win borderline-contender). Nash is *not* going to be driving that offense. Jordan's already there and Pippen, while not at his peak yet, is an already capable playmaker. Nash probably becomes the secondary ball-handler within the limitations of the triangle, and does a lot of spot-up shooting off of Jordan. Do the '90 Bulls win the championship with Nash? Yeah, probably. Even with Nash not being D'Antoni Nash, his shooting and creation would still be a big upgrade over Paxson/Armstrong and I think the Bulls' offense gets considerably nastier. I'd guess (and it's literally just a guess) that Nash adds 5-10 wins to the Bulls there, becoming a 60-65 win team with a good shot at beating the '90 Pistons. It's a good thing to have Nash. But now imagine adding Nash to the '90 Timberwolves. How many wins would he be worth? Probably more like 15-20; a garbage team desperately needs someone like Nash to run their offense.

So in this scenario (clearly made up) Nash adds to both teams, but he adds less to the contender.

Now let's put Ben Wallace in here. What would happen with Ben Wallace on the '90 Bulls instead of Cartwright? I'm pretty sure that the Bulls vaporize everyone. I'm talking 70-wins territory. Their defense/rebounding get miles better and their offense doesn't actually suffer that much. Pretty much everything Wallace adds doesn't conflict with anyone else on the team. Take Wallace and put him on the Wolves, and he's probably only worth 10-15 wins. He's probably equally valuable to either team.

I can't emphasize enough how theoretical this is. The basic premise is that Nash is, generally, better. And that on a bad team Nash is miles better. But on an already really good team Nash doesn't bring *as much* value (because some of what he can offer is less needed because the team already has Jordan and Pippen), while a more 'portable' player like Ben Wallace is able to 'port' a higher percentage of his value onto contenders.

That's the theory, as I understand it.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#918 » by VanWest82 » Fri Mar 5, 2021 6:32 pm

sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:I thought I understood how Ben Taylor analyzes portability but I really don't. I looked at some of his grades... Why is prime Steve Nash a large negative for portability? Wouldn't his incredible passing and shooting scale really well on good teams? Like I can't imagine a team that doesn't get better adding Nash.

The real problem (I infer) is that Nash *must* have the ball in his hands for 80% of his value. He's not an off-ball passer like Bird (or more accurately, never needed to be). If he doesn't have the ball he's not much of a rebounder or defender. He becomes an excellent spot-up shooter and that's it, which is good but it's a massive step down in value from being one of the best ball-dominant offensive players ever. If you pair Nash with Kobe/LeBron/Wade/Jordan/Iverson/Carmelo/TMac or any of the other strong 30%+ usage ball-dominant players you lose out (some) because all of those players need the ball to generate most of their value.

Basically, I read his portability as a "How much of this player's value would he retain if added to a 55-60 win team?" And a 55-60 win team likely already has a ball-dominant player that drives the offense. That's how a Ben Wallace can be more 'portable' than a Steve Nash, even if Nash is the better player, because Wallace retains a larger amount of his value when added to a strong roster than a Nash might.

I think the concerns are slightly overstated, but I think I understand where they come from.


Disagree some re Nash who was an excellent off ball player because he was such a good screener and moved well without the ball (post 04). He definitely wasn't on Curry's level but they share a lot of similar traits in that respect. I do agree Nash was better on ball though so in relative terms to his own ability his off ball game wasn't at the same level. I'd imagine some of the portability stuff has to do with his defense.

Edit: I see you replied to Djoker already. Makes sense.

Also, what's an off-ball passer?
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#919 » by sansterre » Fri Mar 5, 2021 6:46 pm

VanWest82 wrote:
sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:I thought I understood how Ben Taylor analyzes portability but I really don't. I looked at some of his grades... Why is prime Steve Nash a large negative for portability? Wouldn't his incredible passing and shooting scale really well on good teams? Like I can't imagine a team that doesn't get better adding Nash.

The real problem (I infer) is that Nash *must* have the ball in his hands for 80% of his value. He's not an off-ball passer like Bird (or more accurately, never needed to be). If he doesn't have the ball he's not much of a rebounder or defender. He becomes an excellent spot-up shooter and that's it, which is good but it's a massive step down in value from being one of the best ball-dominant offensive players ever. If you pair Nash with Kobe/LeBron/Wade/Jordan/Iverson/Carmelo/TMac or any of the other strong 30%+ usage ball-dominant players you lose out (some) because all of those players need the ball to generate most of their value.

Basically, I read his portability as a "How much of this player's value would he retain if added to a 55-60 win team?" And a 55-60 win team likely already has a ball-dominant player that drives the offense. That's how a Ben Wallace can be more 'portable' than a Steve Nash, even if Nash is the better player, because Wallace retains a larger amount of his value when added to a strong roster than a Nash might.

I think the concerns are slightly overstated, but I think I understand where they come from.


Disagree some re Nash who was an excellent off ball player because he was such a good screener and moved well without the ball (post 04). He definitely wasn't on Curry's level but they share a lot of similar traits in that respect. I do agree Nash was better on ball though so in relative terms to his own ability his off ball game wasn't at the same level. I'd imagine some of the portability stuff has to do with his defense.

Edit: I see you replied to Djoker already. Makes sense.

Also, what's an off-ball passer?

I don't really know what the word is to describe it. Basically, it's passing value added when you only had the ball for less than a second before the pass. When somebody else is initiating the offense for that possession and passes you the ball, how much value do you add to the possession if you choose not to shoot. Larry Bird, for me, is the archetype of this player because he didn't actually initiate the offense a ton, yet added a lot of value passing. I don't know if I'm talking out of my butt here, but that's what it seems like.

And yeah, Nash's defense is a thing. Basically, the question for portability is kind of "what percent of their value comes from initiating the offense?" For Nash, even though he's one of the best *ever* at initiating offense, aside from spot up shooting he doesn't have a ton of other value. If Nash magically had Marcus Smart's defense (or even John Stockton's) he would be more 'portable' because a lower percentage of his value would come from offense-initiation.

I disagree with none of your observations about Nash's game.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#920 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Mar 5, 2021 7:20 pm

Re: Nash

Let's work backwards for just a minute. We think of Nash on the SSOL teams with MDA/Amare/Marion where the entire offense ran through Nash and it was for lack of a more sophisticated description: glorious. While this was going on, perhaps the 2nd most consistent offense was the Mavs led by Dirk with a side of JET and JHo. 4 top 5 offenses in 5 years(8th in the other) including having the best in the league in 05-06.

So clearly Dallas didn't need Nash to still produce elite offense. And remember that not only did Dallas lose Nash but other talented offensive players in Finley and Jamison(previously NVE). Now the 03-04 Mavs were at one time the most efficient offense of all-time which shouldn't be surprising considering they had Nash and Dirk and other offensive talent and Nellie willing to sacrifice defense for offense at every turn.

But it does go to show that Dallas lost a guy who would win the next 2 MVP's and finish 2nd to Dirk the following year and got nothing in return as he left as a free agent and not only did they not drop off any, they actually had the best 3 year stretch in franchise history.

Real life tells a real story about Nash and portability and how he totally transformed the Suns from terrible to very very good, but subtracting him from a good Dallas team didn't really hurt them at all and you could argue it actually benefited them by allowing them to become a Dirk-centric offense which proved post-Nash to be very effective even with a lineup of defensive-minded players by and large.
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