Djoker wrote:It's clear the Mavs never reached the offensive heights that they had with Nash. They were still a good offensive team from 04-05 to 07-08 but nowhere near the offensive juggernaut they were with Nash.
Sure, the absence of Nash weakened the overall offensive power of the Mavs. But that‘s kind of trivial, isn‘t it? The problem without Nash was to compete in lineups with Nowitzki on the bench. Without Nash but with Nowitzki on the floor the Dallas offense was still able to produce spectacular offensive numbers.
05/06: 115.4 (106.2) = +9.2
06/07: 116.6 (106.5) = +10.1
07/08: 115.6 (107.5) = +8.1
The first number displays points per 100 possessions with Nowitzki on the court while the number in brackets is the average offensive rating. Dallas clearly was able to reach offensive heights without Nash, so your numbers just explain the Mavs‘ struggle to run a good offense without him. And btw, if you still think Nash did better without Nowitzki than vice versa, check Nashs offenses in Phoenix in the same time span:
05/06: 114.8 (106.2) = +8.6
06/07: 118.7 (106.5) = +12.2
07/08: 118.9 (107.5) = +11.4
A bit higher numbers however, Nashs teammates did much better without him on the floor, which indicates that they were offensively better than Nowitzkis. Offenses without Nash/Nowitzki:
05/06: 106.4 / 104.5
06/07: 106.3 / 101.9
07/08: 103.5 / 104.0
Generally, I disagree with the evaluation of Nowitzki‘s Peak in the series. While I can‘t make an honest statement about players pre80s (at least), I can compare it to those who supposedely are having higher peaks than him, like Bryant, Garnett, Robinson and most likely Durant.
While Taylor appreciates Nowitzki as one of the best scorers of all time (source: an early podcast episode), I definitely think he underestimates his impact off the ball. In another episode of his podcast he ranked Nowitzkis value (!) off ball behind players like Rip Hamilton and Anthony Davis. And while I feel he just lost himself in the aesthetic here. For example Rip was so good schooled in moving off the ball but also just needed to be that engaged here because he did not have the skills to create on ball. It speaks for Ben to notice such stuff, but I think he confused those details with real impact. Whole defensive concepts are organized around Nowitzkis gravity - especially in a such import scheme like pick and roll or pick and pop. In Nowitzkis prime the style of playing was still old fashioned and both PF and C defended near the zone. Therefore, guards had a much harder time attacking the basket with offensive Bigs who were not able to shoot. Nowadays we can definitely see the advantages of spacing big men, as the whole league develops into maximum space and the offensive numbers skyrocketing analogously. And Nowitzki played a pioniering role, because his impact was that huge. His defenderes were just allowed to help on pick and pops as they did when they guard a different player type. Even when teams already found out for years about his skillset and adjusted their defense accordingly, you can watch playoff highlights of 2011 and find wide open drives by Mavs guards because Nowitzkis defenders were reluctant to contain just a little bit. Barea made a career out of that play. The German had not such clever tricks like bird, bumping into defender to get better offensive rebound position or ran permanently around several screens. But without having statistical evidence, I can only claim that Nowitzkis general gravity and rather unflashy but effective screen setting has a much higher effect on the offensive performance.
Combining such a great efficiency, solid production and immense off ball impact on offense just sets him above someone like Durant and Kobe. I also wonder why Taylor uses primarily boxscore influenced metrics and somewhat ignores RAPM. BPM just tries to predict RAPM results and sure, that makes sense for peaks before 1996. But entirely not using RAPM just seems odd, and I think Nowitzki is one player who suffers from that.