Retro Player of the Year Project

[Djoker]

Is there gonna be a 2015-2016 vote?

[Quotatious]

Is there gonna be a 2015-2016 vote?

We did that in July:

viewtopic.php?p=48650436#p48650436

[THKNKG]

I took the concept of "weighted MVP" from Bill Simmons (although I wouldn't take much else from his analysis), and I decided to put it to test with this. MVP votes that were unanimous received 10 points, 90-99.9% received 7, 80-89.9% received 5, 70-79.9% received 3, and 60-69.9% received 1. The results were as follows.

Michael Jordan – 73
Bill Russell – 56
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 54
Lebron James – 44
Larry Bird – 32
Tim Duncan – 26
Shaquille O’Neal/Wilt Chamberlain – 25
Moses Malone – 17
Hakeem Olajuwon – 14
Bob Pettit – 12
Kevin Garnett - 11
Schayes/Arizin/Erving/West/Magic/Dirk/Steph – 7
Dwyane Wade/Rick Barry – 5

At a glance, this looks like a pretty solid all-time great list (barring a few players who hid in the shadows of the best of the best). I think Jordan getting so many votes during the 80's over Magic skewed Jordan's numbers too highly, and severely negatively affected Magic's, but it seems like a solid list nonetheless.

[Xherdan 23]

I took the concept of "weighted MVP" from Bill Simmons (although I wouldn't take much else from his analysis), and I decided to put it to test with this. MVP votes that were unanimous received 10 points, 90-99.9% received 7, 80-89.9% received 5, 70-79.9% received 3, and 60-69.9% received 1. The results were as follows.

Michael Jordan – 73
Bill Russell – 56
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 54
Lebron James – 44
Larry Bird – 32
Tim Duncan – 26
Shaquille O’Neal/Wilt Chamberlain – 25
Moses Malone – 17
Hakeem Olajuwon – 14
Bob Pettit – 12
Kevin Garnett - 11
Schayes/Arizin/Erving/West/Magic/Dirk/Steph – 7
Dwyane Wade/Rick Barry – 5

At a glance, this looks like a pretty solid all-time great list (barring a few players who hid in the shadows of the best of the best). I think Jordan getting so many votes during the 80's over Magic skewed Jordan's numbers too highly, and severely negatively affected Magic's, but it seems like a solid list nonetheless.

That's not a bad list at all.

Shouldn't Steph be on 13 already (not including '16-'17)?
Also '12-'13 LeBron got shafted because one moron voted for Carmelo, same with '03-'04 Garnett and Peja and '00 Shaq with AI.

If the numbers could be tweaked a bit more it could provide a very accurate list.

[Lou Fan]

Steph didn't win 15-16?

[eminence]

Could we get the first post updated with 16-17?

[SideshowBob]

Years (Winner - Share))

'15-16 (LeBron James - 0.964)
'14-15 (Steph Curry - 0.983)
'13-14 (LeBron James - 0.960)
'12-13 (LeBron James - 1.000)
'11-12 (LeBron James - 1.000)
'10-11 (Dirk Nowitzki - 0.939)
'09-10 (LeBron James - 0.816)
'08-09 (LeBron James - 0.967)
'07-08 (Kevin Garnett - 0.692)
'06-07 (Tim Duncan - 0.918)
'05-06 (Dwyane Wade - 0.891)
'04-05 (Tim Duncan - 0.868)
'03-04 (Kevin Garnett - 1.000)
'02-03 (Tim Duncan - 0.964)
'01-02 (Shaquille O'Neal - 0.884)
'00-01 (Shaquille O'Neal - 1.000)
'99-00 (Shaquille O'Neal - 1.000)
'98-99 (Tim Duncan - 0.932)
'97-98 (Michael Jordan - 0.952)
'96-97 (Michael Jordan - 0.986)
'95-96 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'94-95 (Hakeem Olajuwon - 0.922)
'93-94 (Hakeem Olajuwon - 0.988)
'92-93 (Michael Jordan - 0.978)
'91-92 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'90-91 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'89-90 (Michael Jordan - 0.918)
'88-89 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'87-88 (Michael Jordan - 0.886)
'86-87 (Magic Johnson - 0.974)
'85-86 (Larry Bird - 1.000)
'84-85 (Larry Bird - 0.900)
'83-84 (Larry Bird - 1.000)
'82-83 (Moses Malone - 1.000)
'81-82 (Moses Malone - 0.971)
'80-81 (Larry Bird - 0.850)
'79-80 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1.000)
'78-79 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.914)
'77-78 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.738)
'76-77 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.872)
'75-76 (Julius Erving - 0.950)
'74-75 (Rick Barry - 0.890)
'73-74 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.981)
'72-73 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.871)
'71-72 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.981)
'70-71 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1.000)
'69-70 (Jerry West - 0.968)
'68-69 (Bill Russell - 0.844)
'67-68 (Wilt Chamberlain - 0.856)
'66-67 (Wilt Chamberlain - 1.000)
'65-66 (Wilt Chamberlain - 0.857)
'64-65 (Bill Russell - 1.000)
'63-64 (Wilt Chamberlain - 0.865)
'62-63 (Bill Russell - 0.975)
'61-62 (Bill Russell - 0.925)
'60-61 (Bill Russell - 1.000)
'59-60 (Bill Russell - 0.914)
'58-59 (Bill Russell - 1.000)
'57-58 (Bob Pettit - 0.864)
'56-57 (Bob Pettit - 0.938)
'55-56 (Paul Arizin - 0.933)
'54-55 (Dolph Schayes - 0.925)

Need to add 2017 Doc. I don't believe there's any stickied record of the 2017 results.

[cpower]

Years (Winner - Share))

'15-16 (LeBron James - 0.964)
'14-15 (Steph Curry - 0.983)
'13-14 (LeBron James - 0.960)
'12-13 (LeBron James - 1.000)
'11-12 (LeBron James - 1.000)
'10-11 (Dirk Nowitzki - 0.939)
'09-10 (LeBron James - 0.816)
'08-09 (LeBron James - 0.967)
'07-08 (Kevin Garnett - 0.692)
'06-07 (Tim Duncan - 0.918)
'05-06 (Dwyane Wade - 0.891)
'04-05 (Tim Duncan - 0.868)
'03-04 (Kevin Garnett - 1.000)
'02-03 (Tim Duncan - 0.964)
'01-02 (Shaquille O'Neal - 0.884)
'00-01 (Shaquille O'Neal - 1.000)
'99-00 (Shaquille O'Neal - 1.000)
'98-99 (Tim Duncan - 0.932)
'97-98 (Michael Jordan - 0.952)
'96-97 (Michael Jordan - 0.986)
'95-96 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'94-95 (Hakeem Olajuwon - 0.922)
'93-94 (Hakeem Olajuwon - 0.988)
'92-93 (Michael Jordan - 0.978)
'91-92 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'90-91 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'89-90 (Michael Jordan - 0.918)
'88-89 (Michael Jordan - 1.000)
'87-88 (Michael Jordan - 0.886)
'86-87 (Magic Johnson - 0.974)
'85-86 (Larry Bird - 1.000)
'84-85 (Larry Bird - 0.900)
'83-84 (Larry Bird - 1.000)
'82-83 (Moses Malone - 1.000)
'81-82 (Moses Malone - 0.971)
'80-81 (Larry Bird - 0.850)
'79-80 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1.000)
'78-79 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.914)
'77-78 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.738)
'76-77 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.872)
'75-76 (Julius Erving - 0.950)
'74-75 (Rick Barry - 0.890)
'73-74 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.981)
'72-73 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.871)
'71-72 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0.981)
'70-71 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1.000)
'69-70 (Jerry West - 0.968)
'68-69 (Bill Russell - 0.844)
'67-68 (Wilt Chamberlain - 0.856)
'66-67 (Wilt Chamberlain - 1.000)
'65-66 (Wilt Chamberlain - 0.857)
'64-65 (Bill Russell - 1.000)
'63-64 (Wilt Chamberlain - 0.865)
'62-63 (Bill Russell - 0.975)
'61-62 (Bill Russell - 0.925)
'60-61 (Bill Russell - 1.000)
'59-60 (Bill Russell - 0.914)
'58-59 (Bill Russell - 1.000)
'57-58 (Bob Pettit - 0.864)
'56-57 (Bob Pettit - 0.938)
'55-56 (Paul Arizin - 0.933)
'54-55 (Dolph Schayes - 0.925)

Need to add 2017 Doc. I don't believe there's any stickied record of the 2017 results.

+ 1 hope to see the result soon

[eminence]

Should probably get a discussion thread up and going for this sometime soon I imagine? Strange year so far, could wind up being a tricky one to make decisions on.

[Doctor MJ]

Should probably get a discussion thread up and going for this sometime soon I imagine? Strange year so far, could wind up being a tricky one to make decisions on.

Generally we do that toward the end of the regular season.

[freethedevil]

Should probably get a discussion thread up and going for this sometime soon I imagine? Strange year so far, could wind up being a tricky one to make decisions on.

Generally we do that toward the end of the regular season.

Is there an updated list of overall career poy shares?

[Doctor MJ]

New Google Sheets made from an older copy and updated to 2020:

RealGM POY Voting through 2020

[Doctor MJ]

A couple quick lists after the 2020 voting. See spreadsheet for the actual data.

All-Time Leaderboard.
1. Bill Russell 10.956
2. LeBron James 10.892
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabba 10.221
4. Michael Jordan 9.578
5. Wilt Chamberlain 7.818
6. Magic Johnson 7.114
7. Tim Duncan 6.409
8. Larry Bird 6.147
9. Shaquille O'Neal 5.794
10. Julius Erving 5.046

Leaderboard of Current Players:

2. LeBron James 10.892
19. Steph Curry 2.957
20. Kevin Durant 2.9545
22. Chris Paul 2.557
27. James Harden 2.087
34. Kawhi Leonard 1.235
35. Anthony Davis 1.191
38. Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.110
39. Dwight Howard 1.104
46. Russell Westbrook 0.726

[Doctor MJ]

Most Times Won Per Award:

POY back to '54-55
1. Michael Jordan 9
(tie) LeBron James 9
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 8
4. Bill Russell 7
5. Wilt Chamberlain 4
(tie) Larry Bird 4
(tie) Tim Duncan 4
8. Shaquille O'Neal 3
9. Bob Pettit 2
(tie) Moses Malone 2
(tie)Hakeem Olajuwon 2

Multiple winners in other awards back to '14-15.

OPOY:
1. Steph Curry 3
2. LeBron James 2

DPOY:
1. Draymond Green 3
2. Rudy Gobert 2

6MOY:
1. Andre Iguodala 2
(tie) Lou Williams 2

COY:
1. Brad Stevens 2

[Fundamentals21]

2. LeBron James 10.892
19. Steph Curry 2.957
20. Kevin Durant 2.9545
22. Chris Paul 2.557
27. James Harden 2.087
34. Kawhi Leonard 1.235
35. Anthony Davis 1.191
38. Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.110
39. Dwight Howard 1.104
46. Russell Westbrook 0.726

GOAT list of whoever's still playing. I can see Steph Curry climbing higher and possibly breaking as high as Top 10. Only the following seasons will tell. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are old, and their careers here are probably done. There's some ways to go for everyone else.

[mailmp]

Kind-of funny to look at how disrespected Reggie has been over the years. We can criticise all-NBA voting, but looks like voters here have done much of the same when it comes to him.

[Doctor MJ]

Kind-of funny to look at how disrespected Reggie has been over the years. We can criticise all-NBA voting, but looks like voters here have done much of the same when it comes to him.

Well, maybe.

Keep in mind though that a 5-deep ballot only really works for Top 5 level guys.

Reggie is a guy who often missed all-star which meant he was seen as a borderline Top 25 guy much of the time.

I consider “borderline Top 25” to be a massive underrating if Reggie, but I’m not sure it should be taken as expected that he was Top 5.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[mailmp]

If there were consensus sure. But when a past-peak Stockton who was upset in the first round gets three votes while Reggie playing at his peak and narrowly losing his conference finals cannot get any, kind-of speaks to the same principle. Not being top five does not mean you never receive top five votes, and yet...

[Doctor MJ]

If there were consensus sure. But when a past-peak Stockton who was upset in the first round gets three votes while Reggie playing at his peak and narrowly losing his conference finals cannot get any, kind-of speaks to the same principle. Not being top five does not mean you never receive top five votes, and yet...

Okay so:

First, I love that you're bringing this stuff up at all. Glad you're interested.

Second, do remember that this project was done a decade ago.

I went back to 2000 to see how we talked about him. He absolutely came a bunch and he made my Honorable Mention, which pegs him as Top 10.

I'll quote my old post below, but first I'll say I think differently now, and that's worth noting.

Wow, so this has been quite a tough year for me. Putting something down now, could possibly still change it tomorrow morning.

1. Shaq
2. Garnett
3. Malone
4. Payton
5. Zo

Shaq - obviously. 2-5 I just keep going back & forth on.

I've got KG at #2. Bottom line, he was doing it all for his team playing big minutes. I don't really buy the criticisms of him. His #s don't look great against Portland, but neither did Malone's. KG's team came closer to beating Portland than the Jazz did, and they weren't supposed to. The bringing up of All-NBA voting is just bizarre.

I do think there's a bit of a backlash against Garnett because of how well he's done in this project. Honestly, I think he's been overrated as well by us, but the dude finished #2 in MVP voting this year - this isn't just voters here singing his praises.

Malone's a crafty devil. He gets the nod over the next two guys maybe because I'm more convinced of his ability to lead a team to elite status without getting in its way. I also think that for all the talk of Payton's great post-season, I'd give Malone the series MVP nod.

Payton was an animal at this point, and earns the 4 spot. Still, I'm always reluctant to go too far with "he's out there with trash", and Payton gives me concerns on that front. Low percentage volume shooting point guard led the team to similar minor success the next few years, until the team got rid of him for the less highly regarded Allen and got better. I also always have the taste in my mouth of his time with the Lakers which might be unfair. I just thing Payton is a guy who will dominate the ball too much if you let him, and so can at time lifts you to mediocrity but not any further.

Zo was the guy fluctuating the most on my list. I hate to say bad things about him because I like him a lot, but I feel like I have to justify having him so low. I look at Zo, and I see a guy who doesn't play as many minutes as I think an MVP candidate should, who always seems to get upset in the playoffs, and whose team improved on defense in his absence in '01 while winning about as many games. I know that it wasn't all the same team, but he's an MVP candidate this year because people think he's by far the best offensive and defensive player on the team, you would sure think that the team wouldn't be able to recover from losing him without the acquisition of some big time talent.

Honorable Mention:

Duncan - Wasn't far from the top 5.

Iverson - I've got my issues with him, but he did lead a successful team this year.

Bryant - Arrives on the B-list.

Hill - Arguably his best year.

Reggie - Love the guy. Love that he takes nothing off the table. Not well rounded enough to get past the top 5 guys above.

Fundamentally, I would object to the "not well rounded enough" label. I've since come to have a much greater appreciation for the power of his off-ball play.

Perhaps just as interesting is my quote about Garnett, and the thought that "we" as in the voting pool at the time, had given him too much love. This is another way of saying that I voted him lower than the average voter did. People who only know me from more recent times would fine this amusing because my opinion of Garnett has risen to the point I think this project actually underrated him.

A 3rd point that's noteworthy to me is that Iverson wasn't in my Top 5. That would still be true today, but if you had asked me 20 years ago when it actually happened, he'd have absolutely been in my top 5. So there you're already seeing one shift in my thinking fall on a player (Iverson) in the epoch before my opinions on a couple other guys (Miller & Garnett) rose.

[mailmp]

Cards on the table, I just wanted to highlight the voting on Reggie because the prior all-time project pretty severely underrated him (in my eyes) and I hope this current one will correct that, lol. I do recognise that the perspective on Reggie has radically evolved in recent years, with Elgee’s Backpicks acting as the most high profile shift in that thinking.