2010-11 Player of the Year thread

[Doctor MJ]

Alright, I'd say enough has happened in the playoffs that it makes sense to start this thread.

Thoughts on where you stand now compared to where you did before the playoffs?

Who have the been the best players of the playoffs? Who has disappointed?

Also: Yes, I'm planning to have a voting on this after the playoffs end. If will be a closed vote however, because I don't want people jumping in just to put their guy at the top at the last minute. If you want to be in on the closed vote, well, participate in this thread in a reasonable manner and PM that you're interested.

[drza]

I kind of would prefer to hold off on discussions until more is decided...maybe I'm superstitious, but I don't love the idea of arguing the order until I know for sure how things play out. That said, this is what I wrote when this came up on the main RPoY thread:

"I'd agree that it's too soon to judge things. I did some purely stats-based comparisons of players at different positions (PG, wing, and big man) over the course of the season, then came up with a top-20 across all positions that I compared against each other. I'd say that anyone in that top-20 (as a rough benchmark) could play themselves into the top-5 with a strong enough playoff run. There weren't any run-away leaders this year, as far as I could tell."

So, here's my link to the purely stats comp that I did (keep in mind, not rigorous at all. Just kind of a rough and ready way to rank players into tiers across many advanced stats): http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Best- ... BD2823.htm

The 20 players in that link:

Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, Kevin Garnett, Manu Ginobili, Andrew Bynum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams

Coming into the playoffs, I thought that any of those players that were still active could have played their way into the mix. Nash and Love were impressive, Deron less so, among those that didn't make the playoffs but I don't really foresee any of them being dominant enough in the regular season to make my top-5.

After the first round Zach Randolph has played his way into my list of those under consideration. That's about as far as I can go at this time, meaning there's about 15 guys I'll be keeping an eye on as the playoffs go along as potential top-5 guys this year.

[alucryts]

i will hold off my opinion until after the second round at least because first round match ups arent always very daunting imo

[Tubal]

Get ready for "<insert player who just had a good playoff game> is the player of the year by far. Should have been MVP FOR SHORE" posts.

Just yesterday, Chris Paul was in the top 3 PG's of all time. Today, not so much.

We should wait til the playoffs are done.

[An Unbiased Fan]

It's just way too early for me. There wasn't much seperation between the top players during the regular season, so the playoffs will weigh heavily.

[Doctor MJ]

Okay folks. I'm going to leave the thread up in case people want to contribute, but I won't push it.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

I think a good approach would be for people to decide how heavily they want to weigh the regular season vs the playoffs, and just rank guys based on regular season play to start off with... that way they won't forget where they were if a guy has a bad playoffs, or won't raise them too high if a guy excels in the playoffs but didn't do much in the regular season.

For example (imo), anyone taking Dwight out for losing in the first round, or putting Zach Randolph up there for what he's doing, is probably putting too much emphasis on the playoffs, although again that's just my opinion.

Not officially in this (yet), but just going off of the regular season...

1a/b: LeBron James, Dwight Howard

I can't separate the two. Dwight I'd say did a bit more heavy lifting on his own team, while LeBron's numbers were more impressive. I could probably see LeBron alone at 1 if he were on a different team, but then again, Dwight playing with a star wing might have the same argument.

3: Derrick Rose

I value stats, but I'm still keeping him high up here for me because his team impact weighs heavily for me. And its not like he put up poor numbers or anything... not to mention he did get better as the season progressed (save for a little slump around March).

4: Dwyane Wade

You could argue him as the 2nd best player in the league still, but I'll drop him to 4 for now because his impact on his team just wasn't as pronounced, obviously with a guy like LeBron next to him. His efficiency numbers were excellent though.

5: Kevin Durant

Durant's season was less impressive based on the monumental expectations placed upon him in preseason (obviously James and Wade were victims of this as well from a team perspective), but he still was nearly as effective as last season on a title contending team.

On the bubble: Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki

These are the 2 guys to me that could climb for me based on postseason performance.

Kobe was almost as good as usual... but despite playing lesser minutes, managed to put up more shots on lower efficiency, which is not what LA needed out of him. Still, another long postseason run could surely push him into the top 5.

As for Dirk, he started out the year easily 1 or 2 on everyone's list, but besides missing a somewhat significant amount of time due to injury, he also came back a little bit less effective. Whoever wins the Mavs/Lakers series, depending on how these guys perform, stands a good chance to move up in my rankings.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Just some food for thought, here are the Top 10 efficiency differentials for the 2011 regular season. For the most part, it's a very good guide for postional impact, though players like Deron & Melo won't be reflected as accurately due to trades.


Top NBA differentials:
1) +11.0 Magic C(Dwight)
2) +10.7 Lakers SG(Kobe)
3) +10.1 Heat SF(Lebron)
4) +9.5 Thunder SF(Durant)
5) +9.3 Bulls PG(Rose)
6) +9.1 Celtics SF(Pierce) <---quite surprising
7) +8.8 Grizzlies PF(Zach)
8) +8.1 Lakers C(Pau/Bynum) <----stats are scewed due to injuries
9) +8.0 Heat SG(Wade)
10) +6.7 Wolves PF(Love)



Top Point Guard differentials:
1) +9.3 Bulls(Rose)
2) +6.4 Thunder(Westbrook)
3) +5.9 Hornets(Paul)
4) +4.8 Nuggets
5) +4.7 Suns(Nash)
6) +3.3 Blazers(Miller)
7) +3.0 Mavs(Kidd)
8) +2.1 Celtics(Rondo)
9) +2.1 Nets
10) +1.8 Spurs(Parker)

Top Shooting Guard differentials:
1) +10.7 Lakers(Kobe)
2) +8.0 Heat(Wade)
3) +6.5 Spurs(Manu)
4) +5.4 Rockets(Martin)
5) +3.0 Hawks(JoJo)
6) +3.0 Cletics(Allen)
7) +1.9 GSW(Ellis)
8) +1.8 Mavs
9) +1.6 76ers
10) 0.9 Bobcats

Top Small Forward differentials:
1) +10.1 Heat(Lebron)
2) +9.5 Thunder(Durant)
3) +9.1 Pierce(Celtics) <---underrated
4) +6.6 Nuggets
5) +4.5 Bulls(Deng)
6) +3.5 Knicks
7) +3.0 76ers(Iggy)
8) +2.7 Mavs
9) +2.2 Pacers(Granger)
10) +1.2 Jazz

Top Power Forward differentials:
1) +8.8 Grizzlies(Zach) <-----underrated
2) +6.7 Wolves(Love)
3) +5.5 Lakers(Pau/Odom)
4) +4.0 Heat(Bosh)
5) +3.7 Clippers(Griffin)
6) +3.6 Bulls
7) +3.4 Celtics(KG)
8) +3.4 Mavs(Dirk) <-------surprising
9) +2.6 Magic
10) +2.4 Hawks(Smith)

Top Center differentials:
1) +11.0 Magic(Dwight)
2) +8.1 Lakers(Pau/Bynum)
3) +4.9 Jazz
4) +4.1 Spurs
5) +3.0 Blazers


Interestingly enough, The top five in eff/deff, are also my top 5 for the regular season, and in the actual order I would have had them. I don't have Pierce at #6 right now, but Zach is definitely in my top 10 for the RS. The most surprising player was Dirk.

So far in the playoffs, Dwight will likely drop a few spots for me. He's a great individual player, but the guy is still not a great leader. Zach & Wade both have a shot at cracking the Top 5, though the odds of that happening are slim. The final order of the Top 7 players is still very much in question.

[Sinant]

I do think that the biggest beneficiary from the first round so far has been Durant. He came up big and has helped quell some of the "Durant is a playoff choker" vibe from this summer. If he can have a similarly impressive showing against the superior defenders of Memphis and lead his team to the WCF, it will/should have a big impact on his standing imo.

[Gongxi]

Pretty confident that my regular season rankings would go:

1- LeBron
2- Dwight
3- Wade
4- Kobe
5- Durant

Dirk suffers here because of his injury. I'd probably have him over Durant if he had played a couple more games, and even over Kobe if the difference between their games played wasn't too big. As it is, Kobe played 82 games and Dirk played 73, and that's significant.

Rose is right there with Dirk, but has some room for growth because his play has only gotten better and better throughout the year. If he would've played the whole season as he did the last two months, he'd be in the top 4 easily. So...if he continues to play like that throughout the playoffs (and goes far enough to increase the sample size), he could break the top 5.

Nash isn't getting into the top 5 if he's not already there for me, obviously, but he wasn't too far off either.

With very strong performances from here on out, I guess it's a remote possibility that Zach Randolph or Russell Westbrook could get involved in the discussion- an even more infinitesimal chance they'd actually get in the top 5, but at least make me consider them- but other than that, I can't imagine anyone else cracking the top 5.

[Vinsanity420]

I am pretty sure LeBron, Wade and Dwight are my Top 3 in some order. Outside of that, I am not sure...

Dirk vs Durant vs Kobe vs Rose vs Paul. I can't really separate these 5 players at this point. I don't see how any one of these players has clearly separated himself from another.

[JordansBulls]

I think a good approach would be for people to decide how heavily they want to weigh the regular season vs the playoffs, and just rank guys based on regular season play to start off with... that way they won't forget where they were if a guy has a bad playoffs, or won't raise them too high if a guy excels in the playoffs but didn't do much in the regular season.

For example (imo), anyone taking Dwight out for losing in the first round, or putting Zach Randolph up there for what he's doing, is probably putting too much emphasis on the playoffs, although again that's just my opinion.

Not officially in this (yet), but just going off of the regular season...

1a/b: LeBron James, Dwight Howard

I can't separate the two. Dwight I'd say did a bit more heavy lifting on his own team, while LeBron's numbers were more impressive. I could probably see LeBron alone at 1 if he were on a different team, but then again, Dwight playing with a star wing might have the same argument.

3: Derrick Rose

I value stats, but I'm still keeping him high up here for me because his team impact weighs heavily for me. And its not like he put up poor numbers or anything... not to mention he did get better as the season progressed (save for a little slump around March).

4: Dwyane Wade

You could argue him as the 2nd best player in the league still, but I'll drop him to 4 for now because his impact on his team just wasn't as pronounced, obviously with a guy like LeBron next to him. His efficiency numbers were excellent though.

5: Kevin Durant

Durant's season was less impressive based on the monumental expectations placed upon him in preseason (obviously James and Wade were victims of this as well from a team perspective), but he still was nearly as effective as last season on a title contending team.

On the bubble: Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki

These are the 2 guys to me that could climb for me based on postseason performance.

Kobe was almost as good as usual... but despite playing lesser minutes, managed to put up more shots on lower efficiency, which is not what LA needed out of him. Still, another long postseason run could surely push him into the top 5.

As for Dirk, he started out the year easily 1 or 2 on everyone's list, but besides missing a somewhat significant amount of time due to injury, he also came back a little bit less effective. Whoever wins the Mavs/Lakers series, depending on how these guys perform, stands a good chance to move up in my rankings.

I'm in agreement with this list as well.

[Doctor MJ]

My top 10 after round 1:

Player (last rank)

1. Dwight Howard (1)

What’s that you say? The Magic lost in the first round to the lightly regarded Hawks, shouldn’t he drop? Well, dude played great though. I’m not going to drop him just because his team disappoints. I’ll admit though that this does leave him out of sight and out of mind while others have a chance to up their rep. Excellent chance he ends up slipping a bit by the end of June.



2. Derrick Rose (2)

The first round of the playoffs was interesting partly because of the inevitable comparisons between what Rose does and what other stars do at their best. I’m with people who consider a healthy Chris Paul superior to Rose, but that’s not the Paul who competed all season long.

3. LeBron James (3)

Phase 1 complete, now it gets serious. If LeBron and the Heat lose the next series to the Celtics, it will be utterly devastating. If they win on the other hand in an impressive fashion, their confidence and chemistry will likely go through the roof.

4. Dirk Nowitzki (4)

You’ll notice that there isn’t a ton of movement so far. I do tend to be cautious about overreacting to the first round, but Nowitzki is in danger of sliding down below both Durant and Wade right now.

5. Kevin Durant (5)

The best player of the first round. Bar none. Dude’s playing so well right now it’s scary. That’s huge coming off his playoff disappointment last year.

6. Dwyane Wade (6)

Basically in the same boat as LeBron. Of note though is that while LeBron was clearly the more valuable of the two players during the regular season, I won’t hesitate to reverse that order if it’s Wade who takes the team on his back in the playoffs.

7. Chris Paul (9)

Paul was fantastic in round 1. Granted it was against the Lakers who often let point guards blow up on them, but if we just look at the first round, I’m not sure I’d put Howard ahead of Paul, which points to some of the weirdness of trying to rank this stuff. Had Paul managed to lead the Hornets past the Lakers, my ranking would be total chaos right now trying to find a coherent way to order Paul in with everyone else. As is, I’ll give him a boost, but I’m not going to way his playoffs that strongly.

8. Kobe Bryant (7)

9. Pau Gasol (8)

Neither Laker played great in the first round. Neither one has had a terribly impressive MVP/POY campaign here, but the playoffs are still young, and a lot can change.

10. Manu Ginobili (10)

Keeping Ginobili at the 10 spot for now, but with the Spurs getting upset, he’ll almost certainly fall of this list by post-season’s end. The leader of the team that upset the Spurs, Zach Randolph, is foremost on the front of my mind right now. Quite possibly a Celtic jumps him after this round if they beat the Heat. Russell Westbrook for the Thunder lurks, and even Luol Deng looms on the horizon.

http://asubstituteforwar.com/2011/05/03 ... 1st-round/

[Doctor MJ]

I do think that the biggest beneficiary from the first round so far has been Durant. He came up big and has helped quell some of the "Durant is a playoff choker" vibe from this summer. If he can have a similarly impressive showing against the superior defenders of Memphis and lead his team to the WCF, it will/should have a big impact on his standing imo.

Agreed. He's also continuing to benefit from the "good guy" image whenever Westbrook hogs the ball. He's really following a significantly different track than most young superstars.

[ronnymac2]

Barring a terrible individual playoff run, James is my POY. I don't think he's ever been better.

Wade and Howard are looking like two and three in some order.

Paul, Bryant, Rose and Durant would probably round out my list.


BTW, I definitely want to be in on this when the playoffs are done.

[JordansBulls]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/mvp.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... 1.html#mvp

Code: Select all

Player                   Age   Tm   First   Pts Won Share
1   Derrick Rose   22   CHI   113   1182   0.977
2   Dwight Howard   25   ORL   3   643   0.531
3   LeBron James   26   MIA   4   522   0.431
4   Kobe Bryant   32   LAL   1   428   0.354
5   Kevin Durant   22   OKC   0   190   0.157
6   Dirk Nowitzki   32   DAL   0   113   0.093
7   Dwyane Wade   29   MIA   0   24   0.02
8   Manu Ginobili   33   SAS   0   20   0.017
9   Amare Stoudemire28   NYK   0   9   0.007
10   Blake Griffin   21   LAC   0   5   0.004
10   Rajon Rondo   24   BOS   0   5   0.004
12   Tony Parker   28   SAS   0   3   0.002
13   Chris Paul   25   NOH   0   2   0.002



[lukekarts]

Form is temporary, class is permanent.

Needless to say, I don't think the odd good or bad game will impact my opinion.

I still think the following players are the best at their respective positions:

PG - Chris Paul
SG - Dwyane Wade
SF - LeBron James
PF - Dirk Nowitzki
C - Dwight Howard

In terms of the general season, I think both Dwight and Rose have made the most significant steps forward, at least in terms of 'elite' players.

Kevin Durant is also a top 5 player; slightly overshadowed by the all round game of James but he's a damn fine player nonetheless. Good to see he is playing well in the playoffs.

Zach Randolph is also having a great run, but I don't think he has improved significantly in the past 2-3 years. I think a lot of the reason why he's doing well is that Memphis have found a way to fit him into the system - Marc Gasol is a nice compliment at Center and having Allen and Battier defending the perimeter has had a big impact. There will continue to be reactionary topics on his statlines but really he's been a 20/10 guy for a while now.

Bosh has also fallen off the radar completely but he's also still a great player. He will never consistently score like he did in Toronto but he has adapted to 3rd option and it shows in the playoffs - he is defending better than ever before.

I suppose if I were to incorporate regular season and playoffs, player of the year will go to whomever advances furthest, and plays the best out of LeBron, Wade, Durant and Dirk. Quite feasibly none may make the Finals, but I would not be surprised to see 3 make the Finals either.

[Dr Positivity]

1. Lebron
2. Dirk
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Rose (crappy playoffs)

[fallacy]

Just this year? Including playoffs?

1. Howard
2. Lebron
3. Wade
4. Durant
5. Dirk

Howard is a beast on both ends.
Lebron is still lebron.
Wade is still Wade.
Durant had another great regular season and has been the best player in the playoffs so far.
Dirk had a below average regular season, great efficiency, but has been the second best player in the playoffs probably.

[nonemus]

Was 2001 Kobe better than 2001 Iverson?