penbeast0 wrote:Wilt is on a completely different level of dominance than Bird. In his early years, with a fairly weak team around him on the Warriors (Arizin and Gola were good but aging, Attles was a role player, Rodgers and most to all of his PFs bit) he consistently carried them over everyone but Boston where he was up against the GOAT winner, Bill Russell. When he was asked to change his game to be less dominant he did successfully. And, his record against everyone BUT Russell and the Celtics in playoff serieses is slightly superior to that of Michael Jordan (playoff series win % of over 80% except against Boston).
Bird was great; the team around him was great -- in 86 possibly the all time most talented team; but he was never as singlehandedly dominant as Wilt, never as dominant in areas outside scoring, and even with all that still only has one more title than Wilt. It isn't close despite all the Wilt revisionists.
As for not being as efficient offensively as Shaq, he wasn't although he led or was 2nd in the league in efficiency pretty consistently in his highest scoring years despite being asked to carry a higher offensive load (people constantly talk about how it is difficult to scale efficiency up). As for Hakeem, Wilt, despite playing in a league where the average efficiency was appreciably lower, Hakeem's offensive efficiency for his career (ts%) was only .553, Wilt's was .540 which is higher relative to league, and for that matter Duncan's is virtually identical to Hakeem's at .551.
Beast, I think many of your intuitive principles for ranking players all-time are better than most. Certainly better than mine last summer. Specifically, valuing longevity, lesser seasons from players (who still impact the team) and perhaps most importantly, how well these guys translate to strong teams (portability). That's really what I'm thinking about these days when I evaluate a player, both for single seasons, and then the summation of a career.
But here I disagree with your assessment of Chamberlain's offense. He's the first poster child for the "Raw Box" way of looking at basketball. As in, "OMG! Wilt averaged 50! He
must be dominant!"
Of course this is not really how "goodness" in basketball works. These stats correlate to, but don't *cause* the Global Impact on offense and defense that makes someone good at this team sport. As in, how well can you raise the probability of your entire team unit scoring per possession (including your own offense), and how how well can you prevent the other team from from doing so (including your own man).
We KNOW Chamberlain can do this quite well for himself. How? His scoring volume and shooting efficiency. We also DON'T KNOW about his
(1) Turnovers
(2) "Ball Stoppers" (which we should just call "Dantley's" or something)
(3) Creation
Those are three ENORMOUS elements of basketball. I don't view turnovers as a separate part of "offensive efficiency," as they are worse than missed field goals and PART of what a player is doing when he has the ball on offense. Dantleys are anytime a player doesn't get credited for anything in the classic box because he passed to a teammate after killing clock or an offensive advantage. The teammate is credited with the TOV or missed FGA and the ball-stopper still looks good to the statistics that are scooped. The final element is probably the biggest, which is that a player in basketball isn't simply creating his
own shot, but he can create the shot of
four other players, which is an enormous weapon.
There's limited film, but Wilt Chamberlain doesn't look strong in these areas to me. When Wilt said himself "The Celtics would be worse with me because I'd take away from what they do," I think he was very much thinking of offense in basketball as a zero-sum game. It's not. That his coach shifted someone averaging record scoring totals into an offensive hub and the team offense FINALLY EXPLODED should indicate to people there was something the box score was not capturing that was limiting Chamberlain's offense.
Now, people rightly point what he was doing early in his career on marginal teams, at best. But helping poor teams doesn't matter much if you have strong diminishing returns on good teams. In other words, here are two scenarios:
Team A: Terrible offense. Say -5 ORtg. Wilt joins and they jump to average because he "carries" them.
Team B: Average offense. Say 0. Wilt joins, they just give Wilt more shots, and the team offense remains close to average.
This kind of player will not increase a team's odds of a winning a title very much. In other words, I think there's ample evidence that Wilt Chamberlain, the volume scorer, had pretty strong diminishing returns. Consider the big "shifts" we can look at with Wilt.
(1) Rookie season. 1959 Estimated team ORtg: -3.9
1960 Estimated team ORtg: -2.5
This right away should be a giant red flag for everyone assuming that ppg + TS% must equate to dominant offense. Wilt scored 21.5 pts per 75 pos that year, on +3.0% TS. For a relevant comparison, Bird was 21.4 and +1.9% in 1982. Sam Jones was 21.3 +3.4% in 1966 and Scottie Pippen was 21.4 +1.8%. Although not a perfect comparison because of pace, people should realize, on a per possession basis/as a share of the team's offense, what Chamberlain was doing statistically hasn't been shown to automatically have enormous impact on offense.
So perhaps the most important thing to spot right away is that Wilt's sexy box score numbers did NOT automatically create a GOOD offense, even if the team around him stunk.
Did they? What other significant roster changes occurred that year?
(a) The 1960 Warriors had much better roster continuity within the season
(b) 2 of their best players, Gola and Rodgers, played way more (health) in 1960
(c) Sauldsberry played 1000 fewer minutes
(d) 30 year old Jack George left the team
Otherwise, they had excellent roster similarity from 59 to 60. Neil Johnston did coach the team, although I have no idea what impact that had. Arizin was definitely a year older. But there isn't even evidence that they would have been some horrific, -6 or -7 offensive team and Wilt got them all the way to...-2.5
(2) 1965 -- Trade No. 1Let's note, before we examine Philadelphia and San Francisco in these years, that 1962 was the apex of Wilt's volume scoring, at over 28 pts/75 and +5.7% TS. Great numbers by any standard. Similarly, in 1963 he was 27.2 +5.8%. Incredibly similar numbers again.
Estimated Team ORtg 1962: +1.7
Estimated team ORtg 1963: -0.1
Again, simply placing a scorer like this on a team doesn't mean they have some huge offensive explosion. Now, the contention is that the team around Chamberlain was weak so he was carrying them up to around average. Well, the key players on the 63 team were:
1963 Warriors
-Rodgers
-Al Attles
-Tom Meschery
-Willie Nauls
1965 Warriors
-Thurmond
-Rodgers
-Attles
-Meschery
-McCoy McLemore
That team, with Wilt Chamberlain averaging
39 points per game (+1.6% TS) had an offensive rating in the -5 range. (I once attempted to parse out the two halves of the season, and the difference was something like -4 to -5 with Wilt and closer to -7 without him).
When Wilt arrives in Philadelphia, the 76er offense in the second half of the season seems to function...exactly the same. They were an average offense before he arrived and an average offense after he arrived.
Let me say that again: For the second time, Wilt Chamberlain joins a team in which he volume scores quite well, and for the second time (a) not much happens, and (b) the offense isn't very good. The Philadelphia offense was AGAIN average in 1966.
So Wilt Chamberlain joining an average offense did not make them elite. It didn't even make them good.
Estimated SF ORtg 1965: -5.9
Estimated SF ORtg 1966: -2.4 (added volume scorer Rick Barry)
Estimated Phi ORtg 1965: 0.2
Estimated Phi ORtg 1966: 0.4
(3)1969 - Trade No. 2Before we get to the second trade, it's important to note that in 1967 Wilt stopped volume scoring and changed his role to an offensive hub. The result was an enormous jump in his team's performance, putting out the best statistical offense in NBA history up to that point. This was with near perfect roster continuity between the two seasons. It was almost like it was set up for an NBA experiment.
In 68, the non-volume Wilt offense was still good, although it regressed. Some of this could have been due to Chamberlain's bizarre infatuation with the assist title. Nonetheless, it's important to note that coming off what many feel was a GOAT-level season, and his absolute apex (on the two best teams he'd ever been on), a a THREE-TIME DEFENDING MVP (!) Chamberlain went to Los Angeles and...
Nothing happened again!
In fact, the team got worse on offense. This may have been less concerning if he switched back to volume scoring, but that he continued his newly effective "facilitator" role and couldn't help the mini-offensive dynasty Jerry West cornerstoned in LA should raise another red flag.
Meanwhile, what happens in Philadelphia to the offense?
1968 76ers
-Greer
-Walker
-Cunningham
-Jones
-Jackson
-Guokas
Imhoff comes in at center for Wilt and they slide up Billy C who now plays 40 minutes a game. The offense improves back to ~+3. Jackson misses most of the year and Guokas has a smaller role. Archie Clark comes in.
So again, it seems unlikely that the team Chamberlain left was a below average offensive team. Indeed, it seems like simply redistributing the offensive focal point away from Wilt resulted in an
above average offensive team.
So in 1969, the "new" version of Wilt left an above average offensive team and joined an above average offensive team...and neither team seemed to mind very much. If anything, the Lakers regressed with Wilt, unless Jerry West was having a large defensive impact (the team was much better with West in the lineup).
Wilt Chamberlain didn't seem to have a large impact on above average to elite offensive teams...who did just fine without him. Estimated Phi ORtg 1968: +1.3
Estimated Phi ORtg 1969: +2.7
Estimated LA ORtg 1968: +5.3 (Jerry West missing 30 games)
Estimated LA ORtg 1969: +3.6 (Jerry West missing 20 games)
Wilt joins an average team and the offense is average.
Wilt joins a good team and the offense is good.
Wilt leaves said teams and they don't seem to decline much at all.
This happens with different "versions" of Wilt.
All told, at EVERY step of the way we see evidence that continues to suggest that Chamberlain, despite putting up big Raw Box numbers, was not helping the team's offense to a large degree. We know WHY this possible. The film suggests it. The stats suggest it. And Wilt would be one of many, many players in NBA history who did this.