This is a reply to Drza's post in the last thread. Didn't want to post it there because it's more relevant in this thread now that KG is in the picture
drza wrote:These are both great responses, and literally what I expected/hoped to see in response to what I had written because it lets me further clarify what I meant before. Notice, my initial post on this subject came in response to Bastillon's comment about '12 LeBron "stepping up in the face of adversity". This also dovetails with the themes of some of my previous posts in the threads about how bad the '04 Wolves were once Cassell started hobbling. The level that KG was having to "step it up to", when you factor in both teammate support and opponent, was higher than what LeBron '09 or Duncan '03 had to face.
We can play this same game for Dirk 2011.
a) Supporting cast: None of the '09 Cavs, the '03 Spurs, nor the '04 Wolves (with healthy Cassell) were overly talented. But what all of them had was enough support for the team to build a strong identity around the mega star. Now, that identity (and the team outlook) would be crap if the mega star wasn't on the court to pull it, but WITH the mega star the whole could be stronger than the parts.
The '09 Cavs' support was built around having two centers on the floor at all times (3 man rotation, 2 of which were strong defenders) and a everyone else shooters, which (coupled with LeBron's awesome talents) let them have a strong inside-out defensive/rebounding team as well as a floor-spreaded offensive squad that was strong as long as the treys were falling.
The '03 Spurs support was built around having excellent defensive players from 2 - 5 in a strong defensive system, which was keyed of course by Duncan's defensive strengths. Then on offense, they ran the kind of committee-around-Duncan approach that ElGee did a good job of detailing in a recent post.
The '04 Wolves support was essentially built around a scoring guard's ability to play offense off of Garnett in a 2-man game, and with Spree and Hassell no longer getting completely torched on the perimeter (the way that Wally and Peeler used to) it allowed KG's help defense to make the defense formidable as well. (I say "scoring guard" above because that offense worked and was strong whether that scoring guard was '02 Billups, '03 Hudson, '04 Cassell, or '05 Hudson/Cassell...but with '04 Cassell able to do more of the team set-up as well as being the most consistent scorer of that group as well, his 2-man game with KG made for frighteningly consistent offense even on a team with very little other offensive talent.
While these support systems couldn't have made it out of the lottery on their own, they were each strong enough to a) build something special around the mega star and b) allow that mega star to specialize a bit. LeBron was able to just be a strong cog on the defense, and he had others to help on the boards and knock down the 3s to keep the floor stretched..."all" he had to do was focus on generating offense for himself and his shooters, and just do a good job on defense. Similarly, Duncan was able to lead the dominant defense (instead of BEING the defense), which was good enough to keep them in any game, and let him then focus more on offense. And with Cassell's help Garnett was able to lead the offense (instead of being the offense), which let him focus more on his defense (not coincidence this was his peak defensive season in the Flip Saunders era).
For '09 LeBron and '03 Duncan, the scenario described above was also true in the postseason. But for Garnett, with Cassell limping and then eventually out, the cast was no longer strong enough in any area to let him specialize in any way. He had to BE the offense AND also BE the defense, for his team to have any chance against strong competition. On a level that '09 LeBron and '03 Duncan never had to...they never had to stop specializing and go into scramble mode, the way that '04 KG had to.
It's the same for Dirk. He had to singlehandedly carry the offense to absurd levels. Without him, the Mavs offense was nothing. Dirk's defense was pretty big too. In playoffs, Aldrige averaged 16.8 PPG, 5.7 Reb, .490 TS% when Dirk was on the court. Gasol averaged 10.6 PPG, 8.5 Reb, .446 TS% with Dirk on the court. He didn't have KG's defensive impact, but his defensive impact was comparable to KG's offense.
But Dirk's supporting cast was on the same level as KG's. Dirk had noone anywhere near Cassell's level. Cassell was a 2nd team All-NBA who was underrated throughout his career. Dirk had no all-stars or anything close. Here is what Dirk's cast did in the games he missed:
2-7 record (lost to teams like Raptors, Bucks, and Pacers)
-5.9 MOV (would be between the Kings and Nets for a full season.
-5.82 off court without Dirk (-7.17 in the playoffs)
103.6 (-3.7) O rating, 110.2 (+2.9) D rating (same as Wizards) in the games Dirk missed
110.5 (+3.2) O rating, 104.4 (-2.9) D rating in the games Dirk played
Just look at the numbers i posted before on how Dirk's cast declined significantly without him on the court. That happened in the games he missed as the offense was horrible without Dirk (O rating similar to the Kings and Bobcats). The defense sucked too as Dirk made almost a 6 point impact on Defense. Dirk had 8 guys on his team in the playoffs who played significant minutes. 5 of them (Stevenson, Kidd, Barea, Haywood, Peja) are horrible players. Terry and Chandler are nice role players. Marion is decent but isn't anywhere near his Phoenix levels. He was exposed after he left Nash. Those 3 guys are the only ones who play significant minutes on contender.
b) The opponents. The other aspect is the opponent. And this is a key...neither the 2003 Spurs nor the 2009 Cavs ever faced a situation where the opponent was lopsidedly more talented. I mentioned this in a previous post, but it doesn't even matter so much whether the opponent's talent is mainly offense or mainly defense, just that the opponent is clearly (much) better. The '09 Cavs faced 2 easy opponents, and the a Magic team that was not more talented than them. Again, this is important. The talent around Howard was roughly equivalent to the talent around LeBron, and both teams were somewhat gimmick squads around their star (Cavs with 2 starting centers and shooters, Magic with all shooters around the dominant big). So it's not that the Magic were just better than the Cavs...it's just that their gimmick made the Cavs' gimmick ineffective.
Similarly, the '03 Spurs never faced an opponent that clearly outgunned them. The Lakers had the worst year of the Shaq/Kobe prime era, and Kobe was playing hurt. The Mavs were playing them to a standstill before Dirk got hurt, and afterwards the Spurs had the clear advantage. And the Nets just weren't on the level of the top teams in the league...the East was just weak.
Garnett's Wolves, on the other hand, were facing the Shaq/Kobe/old Malone/old Payton Lakers and the Webber/Peja/Bibby/Miller Kings. Teams (especially the Lakers) that likely would have been more talented than even a Wolves squad at full strength, but that dramatically outgunned KG with limping (or absent) Cassell.
This favors Dirk significantly. Here are the rankings from BBR which is O rating and D rating adjusted for HCA and opponents
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9217Post-deadline, The Thunder were the #3 in the league, Lakers #4, and Blazers #9.
Blazers: The Blazers were a 5.35 SRS team with Gerald Wallace. They improved to 7.76 SRS in the 14 games he started (beat the Spurs x2, Mavs x2, Lakers, Grizzlies, and Thunder). They also significantly out talented the Mavs. Here is the comparison between the two teams minus their best player:
Blazers: Wallace, Miller, Camby, Matthews, Roy, Batum, and Fernandez. That is a significant talent gap. Gerald Wallace would be the best player on the Mavs. Everyone one of those guys is solid.
Lakers: In the 2nd half of the year+1st round, the Lakers had a 7.71 SRS in the games Bynum played.
Lakers: Gasol, Bynum, Odom, MWP, Fisher, Barnes, Blake, Brown
Another significant talent gap. Gasol, Bynum and Odom would have been the best players on the Mavs (ignoring Odom's horrific Mavs stint). This talent gap is around the same level as the 04 Lakers vs. 04 Wolves except the Mavs swept the Lakers without HCA while the TWolves lost with HCA in 6 games. I don't think the talent was big enough to overcome the 6 game gap in outcome.
Thunder: 7.22 SRS in the games Perkins played+first 2 rounds. Look at the linkI posted up earlier. The Thunder were a top 3-5 team post deadline. This is another team with a big gap in talent:
Thunder: Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Perkins, Collison, Thabo, Maynor
Westbrook is easily much better than any of the players Dirk played with. Harden would be right up there with Dirk's 2nd best player. Harden averaged 15-6-4, 126 O rating, .634 TS%, per 36 minutes in the playoffs. Terry was 19-4-2, 119 O rating, .604 TS% in the playoffs so both of those guys were not far off. And Terry was Dirk's 2nd best player in the playoffs. It's a very close comparison if you take into account what Terry was doing with Dirk off the court (.551 TS%). Ibaka, Perkins, and Collison are better than the non-Chandler/Marion/Terry players. This Thunder team was better than the 04 Kings.
Heat: This is self-explanatory. One of the biggest upsets in finals history based on talent. The Heat entered the finals with a 27-6 record and 9.25 SRS in their past 33 games as they got healthy (Miller and Haslem being healthy). Overall for the whole season, the Heat had a 7.82 SRS in the games that the Big 3 played. The Big 3 over the past 2 years were a +14.4 team when they were on the court together and in the finals they played about 40 MPG. The Heat got rid of some of their bad players and played Chalmers, Miller, Haslem, and Anthony more. This was an elite team that beat just came off of beating the Bulls without HCA in 5 games. The Bulls with their starters healthy were a +8.14 SRS team and the Heat easily beat them.
Heat: Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Haslem, Miller, Anthony, Bibby
The only real horrible player there is Bibby but his minutes were reduced in the finals. Wade was another level compared to Dirk's players. Wade was an MVP caliber player. Bosh was an all-star who was also better than Dirk's cast. Chalmers, Haslem, and Miller would have fit well with Dirk's role players. If KG lost this series, his fans would make so many excuses saying he couldn't be expected to beat LeBron/Wade and Bosh at the same time (see how a loss to a weaker Shaq/Kobe duo was excused). Dirk did it himself (had a Plus/minus of +40 in the finals). And Dirk also did it without HCA advantage on his side. You can't tell me the gap in talent between 04 Wolves and Lakers is that much bigger than the gap between 11 Mavs and Heat to explain the huge difference in outcomes.
Dirk beat 6 out of the 9 non-Dirk players in the All-NBA first and 2nd teams. And Dirk beat 3 teams that each had 2 1st/2nd team All-NBA players. The Heat also added an All-star in Bosh who wasn't an All-NBA player. Aldridge also made 3rd team all-NBA and Dirk outplayed him H2H. So that's 7 All-NBA players and 8 All-stars (would have been 9 if Bynum was healthy all year). Yet Dirk did this with no all-stars on his side. Dirk hasn't had an All-star player by his side since 2007 and hasn't had an All-NBA player since 2003 yet he had plenty of success in that span. KG had a player who was one of the tops in +/- stats and was 2nd team all-NBA. Dirk didn't have a player anywhere close to 2nd team all-NBA.
Conclusion: Put (a) and (b) together, and Garnett is in a situation where he a) doesn't have the team anymore that would let him maximize his own production, but b) requires MORE than his previous MVP-level of production to even have a shot at a win. This isn't a comparable situation to '09 LeBron or '03 Duncan, so a straight box score-for-box score comparison won't give you an accurate sense of what was going on.
I reiterate. KG was a monster at his peak.
Conclusion: Dirk was a monster at his peak. Bird like offense with pretty good defense. Dirk was in a situation that required him to carry a mediocre team past 7 different All-NBA players and Dirk had to do it every game to make up for his inferior team.
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