#14 Highest Peak of All Time (Oscar '63 wins)

[Doctor MJ]

Julius Erving '76 has been enshrined. We move on.

[therealbig3]

Ok, very controversial pick to some, but I really haven't seen anything against him that I find to be all that convincing.

Vote: 09 Dirk Nowitzki

I've posted my rationale before:

Dirk has my #14 vote as of right now. Robinson to me is Amare with elite defense (to be clear: damn good player, and a top 20 peak ever). Not a great passer, can't really create for himself consistently, and his only real attribute offensively is his crazy athleticism which he uses to face up and finish around the rim and get to the line. Good player offensively, but not really close to what Dirk provides as an offensive player. And Dirk is super portable offensively. IMO, I would take Robinson over Dirk if Dirk was a bad defensive player, but that's not the case, because Dirk is definitely a positive impact player on defense, even if it is small, and even if you can't build a great defense around him specifically.

Dirk just had more impact at his peak than Kobe/T-Mac/Wade, and is easier to build around, which is why I'm going with him over them. Admittedly, I'm still not super sure about where West or Oscar go, but since I have them around the same level as Kobe/T-Mac/Wade, I have Dirk ahead of them as of right now too.

Really haven't heard anything convincing against Dirk, and why he can't be considered at this level.

Don't really understand why Dirk being in the top 15 is such a ridiculous thought. He probably is my #14 pick, and it's not even based off 11.

I do think Dirk pre-08 was a flawed player in terms of skillset (couldn't take advantage of smaller defenders), but after that, he really did become a pretty unstoppable offensive player. I'd probably take Dirk in 08, 09, or 10 to be honest, over 11. 11 gets all the credit, because he won a title, but he was doing the same things in those years, except with better rebounding and probably better defense because he was younger. I'd probably go with 09 Dirk to be honest.

And what is Dirk at his peak? He's a ridiculous offensive player, probably top 10 offensive player of all time, or in that vicinity. And on top of that, he's an excellent defensive rebounder, and he's a solid defensive piece that rotates well, has great positioning, and has great hands.

His offense is most likely getting underrated here if his peak isn't considered close to top 15. I'd take him as an offensive player over guys like Kobe or Wade or T-Mac, for example.

Compare his ORAPM from 03-07 (before his peak imo) to other top offensive stars:

03

Dirk: +2.6

T-Mac: +1.4
Kobe: +2.5
Shaq: +4.3
KG: +3.6

04

Dirk: +3.7

T-Mac: +1.9
Kobe: +2.0
Shaq: +4.1
KG: +4.5

05

Dirk: +3.4

T-Mac: +1.9
Kobe: +1.8
Shaq: +3.2
KG: +3.1
LeBron: +2.0
Wade: +2.3
Nash: +4.0

06

Dirk: +4.5

Kobe: +5.9
KG: +2.5
LeBron: +3.9
Wade: +4.6
Nash: +4.5

07

Dirk: +6.0

Kobe: +6.0
KG: +2.7
LeBron: +7.1
Wade: +6.1
Nash: +7.9


We see a guy who is clearly on the same level offensively as some of the best offensive players in the league.

From 07/08-10/11 (which is his highest level of play imo, after he incorporated his midpost game), the offensive RAPM of the league's stars look like this (based on the 4-year RAPM study):

Dirk: +5.0

Kobe: +4.7
Paul: +5.5
LeBron: +6.6
Wade: +6.2
Nash: +7.7

He's right there on par with Kobe and Paul...LeBron and Nash are two of the 6 or 7 best offensive players ever imo, and Wade was really, really good and peaked ridiculously high as well during this time.

And overall, Nowitzki is 2nd in the 4-year study, with +7.8, tied with Nash.

So I'm seeing a ridiculously high impact player, with underrated defense and historically good offense. I have no problem voting him in right after the top 13, and I probably will.

To me, Dirk is like the 3rd or 4th best offensive player left, behind Nash and Oscar, and more or less even with Barkley. And he provides a lot more on defense than any of them provide. Not saying he's an elite defensive player, but his shortcomings have always been majorly exaggerated on that end...as I've posted before, he's an excellent defensive rebounder, and very good at positioning himself. He's a pretty solid man defender in the post, and he has quick hands. High IQ player as well. I'd consider Dirk a "good" defender, while Nash and Oscar are more or less neutral, and Barkley might be a negative.

mysticbb has also posted in another thread at some point about Dirk peaking higher than Kobe as well, I'll try and find that.

[therealbig3]

Honestly, Bryant was never such a high impact player on the defensive end. Even in his best season (2001), the impact on the defensive end was worse than Nowitzki's defensive impact in 2011. It is typical to overrate perimeter player on the defense.

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/players/186.png

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/players/5.png

Those are the RAPM charts for each player from 2003 to 2011. There wasn't a single season in which Bryant had a higher defensive RAPM than Nowitzki's career highs. Bryant's highest Net on the defensive end was +3.7 in 2001, Nowitzki had 3 years in which he exceeded that value (2001, 2003 and 2011) by as much 4.2 points.

Sorry, but Bryant did not make up ground on the defensive end at all.

On the other end I think you underrate Bryant on the offensive end. He was a +6 offensive player in multiple years (according to RAPM) while Nowitzki was in the same range. Overall Nowitzki's peak indeed exceeds Bryant's. In terms of production, efficiency and impact combination Nowitzki beats out Bryant.

[therealbig3]

And here are the offenses that Dirk led (or co-led with Nash) in his prime (on 2nd round or better teams):

01 Mavs: +4.0 (10 games)
02 Mavs: +9.0 (8 games)
03 Mavs: +10.0 (20 games)
05 Mavs: +9.1 (13 games)
06 Mavs: +7.4 (23 games)
09 Mavs: +7.4 (10 games)
11 Mavs: +7.3 (21 games)

[Dr Positivity]

Still voting 2010 Wade

I like the idea of debating 09 and 10 Dirk vs 11. He was that devastating high post player starting in about 09 and played excellent in the playoffs.

[Dr Positivity]

Does 2008 Paul have a case against any of Wade, Kobe, Oscar, West, Tmac? I did feel he should've gotten MVP before Kobe that year, then had a great playoffs. I'm almost definitely voting 08 Paul over the best Nash season

[therealbig3]

I see peak Nash as slightly but clearly better than peak Paul, so I can't consider Paul until Nash gets voted in.

[ardee]

Trying to decide between Kobe and Oscar here.

Going to wait and listen to some debate.

[bastillon]

Oscar 1963. video game RS stats, amazing well-documented impact throughout his career, huge portability without pretty much any ceiling (look at his impact on 71-72 Bucks, they were like +12.5 with him being healthy, +4.25 before his trade, +4.8 when he missed games). in 63 he also put up ridiculous series against one of the greatest defensive teams of all time with peak Russell anchoring that defense. year after that he won the MVP over Russell/Wilt at their best (64 was among their very best seasons) so his skillset from 63 must've been pretty impressive. team success is what he lacked because of poor defensive bigs. historical accounts portray him as the best small player of his generation. there's GOAT talk, "he had no weaknesses" type of talk, well known competitive nature etc.

[colts18]

Vote: Dirk 2011

He took arguably the worst non-Rockets 94 cast to a championship. Based on RAPM, Dirk's cast was +1.98 based on finals minutes. He faced off against a +10 Heat team without HCA and he took that +2 team to a title.

[colts18]

Elgee, I'll post a little more later, but HCA is pretty big. Seeding is important too. Only 3 teams in history reached the finals with a seed lower 4. One (99 Knicks) did it in a lockout year. The 81 Rockets did it too but they had a fluky year where the 1st round was a best of 3, and they faced a under .500 team in the WCF. Only the 95 Rockets won a title as lower than 4 seed.

[ardee]

Does 2008 Paul have a case against any of Wade, Kobe, Oscar, West, Tmac? I did feel he should've gotten MVP before Kobe that year, then had a great playoffs. I'm almost definitely voting 08 Paul over the best Nash season

I would say in '09 Paul was just a much superior all-around player.

[JordansBulls]

What Wade did against Detroit and Dallas in 2006 is what makes me pick him that year over any other year.

Between these guys for me

--------- RS PER, WS48, --------- PER, WS48 playoffs
Moses Malone 1983: 25.1, 0.248 -----25.7, 0.260 (13 playoff games, title)
Dwyane Wade 2006: 27.6, 0.239-------26.9, 0.240 (23 playoff games, title)




http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/ ... ormances-1

2006 WADE'S STATS
Points per game: 34.7
Boards per game: 7.8
Steals per game: 2.7
PER: 33.8


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2 ... nces-11-20

MOSES MALONE FINALS STATS
Points per game: 25.8
Boards per game: 18.0
Blocks per game: 1.5
PER: 26.0



VOTE: Dwyane Wade 2006. This guy carried the Heat this season and his production was clearly superior to any of his teammates this season and then to top it off had a historic Conference Finals (27/5/5 on 61% FG) and NBA Finals.

[colts18]

More on HCA. This is data on the NBA finals since 1985 (since 2-3-2 format) for HCA. Remember, these are 2 of the best teams in the league.

Overall home team:
96-61 record (.611 win%)
+4.62 point differential

Team with HCA in series in home games:
54-23 (.701) record
+6.57 differential

Team w/o HCA in series in home games:
42-38 (.525) record
+2.74 differential

Games 6 and 7, Home team:
15-6 (.714) record (all 4 game 7 winners were home teams)
+5.48 Differential

That's enough proof to me that HCA is important. Even the underdog in the series based on record/seed wins the majority of its home games.

[mysticbb]

Overall home team:
96-61 record (.611 win%)
+4.62 point differential

Even though it is a bit "useless" without having the strength of the respective teams, that is pretty close to the phytagorean expectation for win%, if both teams are equally strong.

Over a 7 game series HCA makes about +0.5 in average. So, it becomes less important in comparison to the real strength of teams, if the difference is bigger than 0.5. In essence, Elgee is correct, HCA is less important than being a 3 or 5 point better team. The caveeat is obviously, that a team has to qualify for the playoffs in the first place. If the best player is missing too many games, that can end up with the lottery instead. Also, the 2011 finals had no HCA for either team. Both played 3 games at home.

[ardee]

What Wade did against Detroit and Dallas in 2006 is what makes me pick him that year over any other year.

Between these guys for me

--------- RS PER, WS48, --------- PER, WS48 playoffs
Moses Malone 1983: 25.1, 0.248 -----25.7, 0.260 (13 playoff games, title)
Dwyane Wade 2006: 27.6, 0.239-------26.9, 0.240 (23 playoff games, title)




http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/ ... ormances-1

2006 WADE'S STATS
Points per game: 34.7
Boards per game: 7.8
Steals per game: 2.7
PER: 33.8


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2 ... nces-11-20

MOSES MALONE FINALS STATS
Points per game: 25.8
Boards per game: 18.0
Blocks per game: 1.5
PER: 26.0



VOTE: Dwyane Wade 2006. This guy carried the Heat this season and his production was clearly superior to any of his teammates this season and then to top it off had a historic Conference Finals (27/5/5 on 61% FG) and NBA Finals.

Leaving aside that Wade's 'historic' performance took place in a year absolutely geared toward allowing perimeter scorers to be efficient, his Finals has the black mark of being the worst officiated series in history, his defensive impact was nowhere near the other seasons we are discussing and his regular season was not notable at all ?

[colts18]

Even though it is a bit "useless" without having the strength of the respective teams, that is pretty close to the phytagorean expectation for win%, if both teams are equally strong.

Over a 7 game series HCA makes about +0.5 in average. So, it becomes less important in comparison to the real strength of teams, if the difference is bigger than 0.5. In essence, Elgee is correct, HCA is less important than being a 3 or 5 point better team. The caveeat is obviously, that a team has to qualify for the playoffs in the first place. If the best player is missing too many games, that can end up with the lottery instead. Also, the 2011 finals had no HCA for either team. Both played 3 games at home.

Strength of schedule is irrelevant in this analysis because it goes both ways. Let's say we have a +6 and a +5 team in the finals. The +6 team is HCA and is +1 better. HCA is worth 4.5 ppg.

With HCA: +5.5 expected PPG (1+4.5)
w/o HCA: -3.5 expected PPG (1-4.5)

It's still the same result for HCA. The only thing is we might have to adjust for the fact that the team with HCA gets more home games. Though in the finals, ironically the team without HCA actually has played more home games (80 to 77) than the team with HCA due to the 2-3-2 oddity.

[colts18]

More data on HCA. This time its Conference finals games between 1985-2012

Overall home teams:
212-109 (.660) record
+4.32 differential
38-18 (.679) series record for team with HCA

So teams with HCA win on average 2/3 of their home games in CF. A staggering amount.

team with HCA in series, in home games:
122-50 (.709) record
+5.27 differential

team w/o HCA in series, in home games:
90-59 (.604) record
+3.22 differential

Game 6, home team (team w/o HCA in series):
23-14 (.622) record
+3.30 differential

Game 7, home team:
11-2 (.846) record
+8.46 differential

So in both the finals and conference finals, HCA grows late in the series. Games 6 and 7 have bigger HCA advantages despite the fact that teams that make it that late in a series are usually even in strength.

Thats an even bigger gap. So the underdogs in the series are still winning home games by +3 points. Going by elgee's suggested 3-3.5 HCA, that would mean both teams are even despite the fact that we know its not true.

[lorak]

vote: Oscar '63

great non box score impact (Robertson wasn't worse than Magic), obviously great box score numbers, amazing performance in the playoffs vs one of 3 best defensive teams of all time. Flawless player.

[lorak]

-on that list, Gilmore, Kareem and McHale are the only really notable defenders...along with Jerry West.
.

Your in/out numbers confirms that West was good defender (how good exactly?)?