The Lebron Thread (Pt. 2)

[SideshowBob]

Original thread left off here:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1151834&start=1485

[SideshowBob]

What is everybody discussing '10 for.... I thought it was mostly consensus that his best year until now was '09, because of his absurd Playoff performance.

Best year, sure. But he was a better player in 2010, the season overall just wasn't as impressive as 09 due to the last 3 playoff games. I think if you talked to those who followed him ardently in Cleveland, they'd tell you the same. I've made the case myself a few times. I tried to argue for it in the peaks project over the summer, but mysticbb and some Lebron fan seemed to be the only ones who agreed and others still argued for 2012, so it never gained much traction there.

PS I've just realized that this is possibly the biggest waste of time in any of these last 3 projects. 09 v 12 LeBron is a great debate, but the end result is quite close in performance.

Why is the 2010 version not included in this discussion?

+1

I know I haven't really participated in any discussion prior to this, but I want to chime in here. Why indeed, is 2010 Lebron not being included? If this is a comparison of peaks and its been clear that we're trying to go beyond something as simple as just a "most successful season" list, then why exclude what might just be Lebron at his absolute best (IMO his strongest regular season), even if the playoffs were underwhelming. Allow me to present the case.

The Cavaliers finish with a 61-21 record and a 6.19 SRS, both down from the previous year, though it should be noted that the roster was riddled with absences and injuries throughout the season. Williams plays 69 games as opposed to 81, West misses 20 games in the early season, Shaq misses 29 games and posed further issues by never fitting into Cleveland's offensive system very well (of the 10 best offensive lineups Cleveland ran that year with >40MP, Shaq was in one of them), Gibson played 19 fewer games than the year before, Ilgauskas/Jamison trade caused chemistry issues with Jamison struggling particularly to fit in on the defensive end (and randomly dropping off to a 50% FT shooter after shooting 70% in WAS an shooting 73% for his career), Kuester leaving as the head offensive coach, etc.

Despite all this, they managed to go 60-16 in the 76 games that James played (he missed 4 games at the end, which Brown at the time attributed to lingering issues but later claimed was due to his elbow, both of which, could be given as an explanation for his relatively inconsistent performance in the last month or so of the regular season), and using ElGee's In/Out method, were roughly a 6.89 SRS team in the 76 games James played in, putting up an ORTG of 111.8 (#3 in the league, +4.2). On the other hand, they went 1-5 in the 6 games they played without him (close win against the Spurs at home, 1 close loss against ORL at the dead end of the season, the other 4 were very winnable games, and its not unreasonable to suggest that they would have won 65-66 again had Lebron played, which would be a slight overperformance based on their +7 SRS w/Lebron), put up a -2.95 SRS in those 6 games and an ORTG of 103.6 (-4.0).

Taking a further look at just the offense, with James ON Court:

2009: 116.4 (+8.1, #1)
2010: 116.6 (+9.0, #1)

So despite the drop overall, Cleveland's offense with James on the floor is even more impressive than the previous year, which his ORAPM seems to support (+7.1). Let's take it further and compare the performance against top 5 defensive teams (Orlando, Boston, Houston, San Antonio in 2009 and Charlotte, Milwaukee, Orlando, Los Angeles, and Boston in 2010) excluding any games James didn't play in (and one game against Boston in which Garnett did not play).

2009: 106.5 (-1.8 LA, #24) against an expected DRTG of 102.9 (+3.6)
2010: 108.8 (+1.2 LA, #11) against an expected DRTG of 103.3 (+5.5)

So what I see here is a Lebron who's running an offense even better than the year before, despite having less/weaker talent to work with. The roster was frequently changing around him, he was asked to play far more roles in various lineups and he managed to adjust and perform better than he had before.

The most evident example of this, of course, was the extended stretch at the end of January 2010 and through February 2010 where Williams missed significant time and Lebron was thrust into the De-Facto PG position. Looking purely from a box-score perspective, over this 11 game stretch James put up 31.0/6.6/10.5 on 61.8% TS with 3.8 TO. Taking it further, Cleveland posted a 115.5 ORTG (+7.9 LA) over this period, which would be tied with Nash's Suns for the best offense in the league. So not only is he able to take on the larger scoring load and creation load due to the loss of the team's secondary ball handler and playmaker, he's able to do so while effectively IMPROVING the offense and while IMPROVING his own efficiency.

Getting into the box-score, James' individual numbers look better: 30/7/9 on 60% TS (+7.1 ORAPM, +2.6 DRAPM, +9.8 overall) in 2010 vs 28/8/7 on 59% TS (+6.6 ORAPM, +2.8 DRAPM, +9.3 overall) in 2009. Prior to the mid-late March injury (whatever caused him to miss the 4 games at the end of the season), even his PER was higher than the 31.1 he finished with, somewhere above 32.0 which would be ahead of his 31.7 from 2009. I don't like putting much stock into "clutch" numbers, but I know colts has been stressing those in his posts for 2009, so again 66/16/8 on 63% TS (+37 overall) in 2010 vs 56/14/13 on 69% TS (+45 overall) in 2009.

So with all that in mind, I just don't see how Lebron's 2009 regular season at least could be considered superior to his 2010 regular season. While the 09 Cavs certainly maintained a consistently higher level of play, it seems that the 2010 Cavs were dropping off to a much lower level when James was off the floor, and thus even a greater level of lift from him would not propel their numbers to match 2009 overall (thought they were arguably even better with him on the court).

Now, the playoffs is where it gets a bit tricky. As far as I can tell, his first-round Chicago series was superior to what we saw against Detroit and Atlanta the year before (all average to above-average defensive teams) and this is DESPITE him playing far more inconsistently than usual (the elbow issue had already popped up in games 1 and 4, before the left handed free throw fiasco in game 5). Evidence, 22/8/7 on 53% TS in Games 1 and 5, 39/10/9 on 74% TS in Games 2-4. Watching that series again, in Game 5 I saw a Lebron who lacked full game aggression and exhibited a certain passivity that we saw again later in the Boston series. Again, evidence, after maintaining a 32% USG in the first four games, he puts up a USG of only 23.9%, taking only 12 shots, in a close game Game 5 no less. What would be the reasoning for that? Certainly after putting up 35/9/8 in the first 4 games it's not that he's not skilled enough to take on the defense. Nor is this Chicago team posing enough of a threat for him to give up, or lock himself out of the game due to not being mentally strong enough to handle the adversity. Is it really that far-fetched to believe that he could have been injured, and that this injury was one that could show up and affect his play one day and then not cause much of a problem another day?

There's documented evidence that his outside shooting showed somewhat of a correlation to how many rest days he had, specifically in the last month or so of the season and the playoffs. The elbow issue that he claimed to have would be something that effected exactly that, long distance shooting, so why is it so much more likely that he choked or seized up mentally or just wasn't skilled enough to cope with the tough playoff defenses, defenses that he was able to tear apart that very year?

So let's move on the to Celtics series. He plays great in Games 1 and 3, putting up 37/8/7 on 67% TS. Both games are in line with how he performed vs. Boston in the regular season (37/7/8 on 57% TS). Also, notably, BOTH games came after 3 days of rest and both were the result of strong outside shooting performances from him (barometer - 16/20 FT 80%). On the other hand, in the 4 losses, he put up 22/10/7 on 49% TS. All four were far worse outside shooting performances (barometer - 36/50 FT 72%) and un-coincidentally, all four came after only a SINGLE day of rest, as opposed to the 3 days he had before the good games. Looks like a pattern to me, one that could be easily explained by an injury that would very clearly hamper a jumpshot.

So at the end, it comes down to that postseason performance. The regular season, to me, clearly suggests that he was at a level above his previous 09 level, and the playoffs looked like they would have been the same story had it not been for the slip ups. I suppose at that point, it comes down to what you're willing to attribute the struggles to. If the faltering is attributed to the idea that he was a fundamentally flawed player who got exposed by an elite defense OR that he just had a mental breakdown in the face of adversity, then yeah, I can't really pick this season as his best one. But if you're willing to consider that he was actually hampered by injury, I think its perfectly reasonable to believe that he was better and more impactful in 2010 and 2009, and in that case I'm willing to pick 2010 as his peak year with confidence.

[SideshowBob]

James + Wade (No Bosh)

ORTG: 125.3 (+19.8)
DRTG: 101.3 (-4.2)
Net: +24.1 in 271.6 minutes

James + Bosh (No Wade)

ORTG: 121.7 (+16.2)
DRTG: 104.1 (-1.4)
Net: +17.6 in 225.2 minutes

Wade + Bosh (No James)

ORTG: 100.0 (-5.5)
DRTG: 115.9 (+10.4)
Net: -15.9 in 107.1 minutes

Bosh + James + Wade

ORTG: 115.2 (+9.7)
DRTG: 104.1 (-1.4)
Net: +11.2 in 1041.6 minutes

[PCProductions]

James + Wade (No Bosh)

ORTG: 125.3 (+19.8)
DRTG: 101.3 (-4.2)
Net: +24.1 in 271.6 minutes

James + Bosh (No Wade)

ORTG: 121.7 (+16.2)
DRTG: 104.1 (-1.4)
Net: +17.6 in 225.2 minutes

Wade + Bosh (No James)

ORTG: 100.0 (-5.5)
DRTG: 115.9 (+10.4)
Net: -15.9 in 107.1 minutes

Bosh + James + Wade

ORTG: 115.2 (+9.7)
DRTG: 104.1 (-1.4)
Net: +11.2 in 1041.6 minutes

This says a LOT about Lebron's defensive presence.

[SideshowBob]

Worth noting that the toughest possible defensive route through the EC this year for Miami, given the current standings and assuming each series goes to the same number of games is -3.6 (101.9), facing Milwaukee first, Chicago second, and Indiana 3rd.

For comparison, average EC defense faced in:

2012: -4.0 (101.6)
2011: -5.4 (102.2)
2010: -3.1 (104.5)
2009: -3.0 (105.3)
2008: -3.7 (103.8)

[therealbig3]

Top FIVE? As in, right after the season, or after he retires?

Right after the season ends. He doesn't have to win a ring...he just needs to keep up his play from the regular season into the playoffs, and yeah, he's going to be a top 5 all time player in my book.

I don't get it, you agree with everyone that the season he's having is ridiculous, possibly up there with anyone ever...but then you have some really hard time putting him in the top 5? What more does he need to do? Longevity? Check. He's been at least a top 5 player from 05-08, and he's been inarguably the best player in the league since 09. Playoff performances? Check. Peak? Absolutely a check...he had an arguable top 5 peak BEFORE 2013.

IMO, the only guys ahead of him would be Jordan, Russell, Kareem, and Shaq.

[_Game7_]

Its funny, I remember in Cleveland everyone was saying how Lebron will never age well because he doesn't have any kind of post game. Even though his footwork is not on a Hakeem, Kobe level, he is on the most efficient 30pt runs in nba history primarily operating from the post, kinda funny.

[JordansBulls]

Top FIVE? As in, right after the season, or after he retires?

Right after the season ends. He doesn't have to win a ring...he just needs to keep up his play from the regular season into the playoffs, and yeah, he's going to be a top 5 all time player in my book.

I don't get it, you agree with everyone that the season he's having is ridiculous, possibly up there with anyone ever...but then you have some really hard time putting him in the top 5? What more does he need to do? Longevity? Check. He's been at least a top 5 player from 05-08, and he's been inarguably the best player in the league since 09. Playoff performances? Check. Peak? Absolutely a check...he had an arguable top 5 peak BEFORE 2013.

IMO, the only guys ahead of him would be Jordan, Russell, Kareem, and Shaq.

So you would have him the #1 SF all time after this season? Also do you believe that Shaq only having 1 mvp will hurt him all time?

Also you would put him ahead of Magic and even Duncan?


Edit: Where do you have Wilt ranked at?
Any reason he would be above Wilt as well if on dominance. Wilt would still have more seasons leading in PER, WS and WS/PER 48 minutes and would either have the same amount of MVP's if not one more and the same finals mvp's. I would think they would be the same level in this scenario wouldn't you think?

[JordansBulls]

Its funny, I remember in Cleveland everyone was saying how Lebron will never age well because he doesn't have any kind of post game. Even though his footwork is not on a Hakeem, Kobe level, he is on the most efficient 30pt runs in nba history primarily operating from the post, kinda funny.

Well he did work with Hakeem in the summer after 2011. I'm sure that pretty much changed his game.

[rrravenred]

Just because it's there....

LeBron James Playing Flawless Basketball In Pathetic Bid For Nation's Approval.

(Apologies if already posted)

[thebottomline]

How do you guys see LeBron's defense this year? Better/same/worse compared to last season? Sideshow just posted some really indicative DRtg numbers of the big 3. LeBron's on/off defensive numbers (DRtg, DRB%, opponent TOV%) are eclipsing his 2012 season as well -- difference in opponent eFG% is not as large as last year's though (-0.005 vs -0.008). The bigger defensive numbers could be due to his supporting cast/team defensive scheme/effort being weaker than last year, Miami after all is a poorer defensive team this year.

[SideshowBob]

About the same defensively as last year if not slightly better. He's moving much better, and his style of help GREATLY benefits from that.

Made a post regarding his defense a couple weeks ago.

I've seen a few people ask about Lebron's defense, and thought this might be a good time to get to it.

He's a guy who anchors the half-court defense from the perimeter by: covering as much of the floor as possible (horizontal game), playing disciplined within sets and forcing others to do the same (team defenses are designed to reduce overall opposing offensive efficiency, therefore, staying true to the system on a team level tends to produce better defensive results than an individual exerting effort on stopping an opposing individual), using his combination of length and quickness to rotate and recover VERY fast, using his versatility in defending the PnR as he can cover both the handler and the roll-man and be effective on the switch with virtually any combination. On top of that, he's also decent weak-side shot blocker, and has a great knack for playing the passing lanes.

This kind of defense:

A.) Creates a ton of turnovers. Miami is currently #8 in the league in oppTOV% and is trending upwards (they were #16 just a week ago). Last year, they were #3. In 2011, they were only #26, and the 2010 Cavs were only #24, but the 09 Cavs were #10.

Opponent TOV% with Lebron on the floor

Miami

2013: #1 (16.7%)
2012: #1 (18.5%)
2011: #5 (14.5%)

Cleveland

2010: #5 (14.3%)
2009: #1 (16.2%)



B.) Decreases efficiency on all shots away from the rim. Because of his length, quickness, and discipline on the perimeter, he usually helps anchor a perimeter defense that traps aggressively, prevents penetration, recovers quickly (shots are almost always at least partially contested), and is backed up by an smaller interior defense that denies position (also one of James staples). This forces either contested shots, or forced low-percentage shots. Lebron's defenses tend to allow much more attempts from 10-15 feet on average, while forcing all shots inside the 3-point line to be low-percentage.

In 2012, they allowed the 10th most attempts from 10-15 ft, but gave up only 35.7% of them (6th best). From 16-23 feet, they allowed the 19th most attempts, but gave up only 37.6% of them (12th). This year, they allow the 13th most attempts from 10-15 ft, but give up only 36.6% of them (3rd best). From 16-23 ft, they allow the 25th most attempts, but give up 36.6% of them (10th best). I'd delve into more seasons, but Hoopdata's site is being a pain right now.



C.) makes it difficult for the opposing offense to GET good shots and positioning near the rim. Again, here, its his versatility that comes into play. The perimeter defense he anchors and his smarts on the PnR make it difficult for the ball to get inside. On the flip side, his strength and length are often a great tool for ball-denial and single-coverage in the post. He's great at fronting guys and this can often take the league's better post scorers out of offensive action, instead of forcing them into bad shots. When they're able to get the ball, they still draw the attention of the defense, which creates offensive rebounding opportunities, easy buckets for off-ball guys on the move and open shots for guys on the perimeter. In these situation, James's man defense becomes important, because its often in the defenses best interest for him to force the player into a bad shot.

HOWEVER, when he forces ball-denial, it can throw the entire opposing offense out of whack. In sets designed to take advantage of an inside scorer (in the manner described above), James's aggressive fronting does a couple things. He forces precious time off the shot clock, giving less time for the rest of the team to create something, which tends to lead to a higher percentage of bad or contested shots OR turnover. He also likely denies the opposing offense their primary method of attack in the running play, forcing them to either start fresh, or exhibit some sort of counter or wrinkle, which again, tends to lead to a high probability of decreased offensive efficiency.

Again, we can see evidence of this in the team based stats.

Opponent FG% at Rim

Miami

2013: 61.6% (6th best)
2012: 57.7% (2nd best)
2011: 58.0% (1st best)

Cleveland

2010: 58.3% (6th best)
2009: 59.3% (6th best)

Keep in mind, this is without ANY prominent shot blockers on these teams. James was actually the team leader in total blocked shots in those two Cleveland years, and Anthony has typically been the leader in Miami, with just over 1 per game.

Opponent eFG% with Lebron on the floor

Miami

2013: 48.3% (#10)
2012: 47.7% (#8)
2011: 46.9% (#2)

Cleveland

2010: 48.2% (#3)
2009: 46.4% (#1)

Now, the last thing I'd get to is transition. Here, James is arguably the best in the league. He's typically extremely active in transition; he creates turnovers independently, we've seen him often just grabbing the ball out of the handler's hands, but he's also frequently looking for poorly timed passes. Furthermore, he's known for his shot-blocking on the break, which I'm starting to believe is getting a bit underrated.

Firstly, he's creating hesitation on the break and in transition this way. Transition baskets are generally the highest percentage baskets in the game; however, Lebron's shotblocking threat here can affect efficiency, which is crucial as its turning near-100% buckets into slightly lower ones. If that doesn't happen, we'll see the handler often slow it down to avoid the shotblock, and instead wait for the rest of the team to arrive in order to engage the offense. Again, this is always going to be less efficient in the long run than getting an easy transition bucket.

Second and less importantly, notice that he tends to block the shot directly off the backboard, which oftentimes not only allows Miami/Cleveland to maintain possession of the ball, but frequently triggers a fastbreak in the other direction. Even if this doesn't occur, the opposing team will almost ALWAYS be in a poor position to get into proper defensive positioning, and I'd wager that Miami/Cleveland's offensive efficiency on possessions after a Lebron chasedown block is noticeably higher than average. This is literally creating OFFENSE out of DEFENSE.

All-in-all, James is arguably the most dynamic defender in the league, and I can make this claim without giving his positional versatility much prominence at all. His overall contributions on help-defense and dominance in transition make him among the most impactful (the most in my mind, I'd argue he's the best since Pippen along with Artest, and there's evidence suggesting so in the form of the old multi-year APM and RAPM studies as well as the earlier RAPM figures) non-big defensive player in the league, and for that matter, he's better than a lot of elite prototypical bigs as well.

[colts18]

The heat's 3P shooting is absurd this year. They are 3rd in the NBA in 3 point shooting. This what the guys with 2 3PA per game are doing:

LeBron 42%
Allen 41.7%
Chalmers 40.1%
Battier 40.2%
Lewis 42.9%
Miller 37.8%

That's ridiculous

[_Game7_]

Its funny, I remember in Cleveland everyone was saying how Lebron will never age well because he doesn't have any kind of post game. Even though his footwork is not on a Hakeem, Kobe level, he is on the most efficient 30pt runs in nba history primarily operating from the post, kinda funny.

Well he did work with Hakeem in the summer after 2011. I'm sure that pretty much changed his game.

Anybody that followed Lebron will tell you he has always been pretty good in the post. He looked awkward as hell sometimes in his Cleveland days no doubt, but if he got good positioning in the paint it was a foul or layup. I remember him throwing in some insane sky hooks around 08-09 season.
Has Lebron changed his game? Hell ya. Its like a switch went off in his head and he finally realized no one can stop him with his back to the basket. Too big, too strong, and most important elite basketball IQ. However if you notice his footwork is still pretty basic as is his post moves. Jump hook off left right shoulder, drop step, up and under, the ability to jump off any foot and get a shot, while basic it is all you need to get a quality look.
So yea his work outs with Hakeem helped him take a different mental approach on the block. But as in actual post moves Im not sure how much he actually learned. Lebron is much more Shaq on the block then Hakeem.

[_Game7_]

Its funny, I remember in Cleveland everyone was saying how Lebron will never age well because he doesn't have any kind of post game. Even though his footwork is not on a Hakeem, Kobe level, he is on the most efficient 30pt runs in nba history primarily operating from the post, kinda funny.

Well he did work with Hakeem in the summer after 2011. I'm sure that pretty much changed his game.

Anybody that followed Lebron will tell you he has always been pretty good in the post. He looked awkward as hell sometimes in his Cleveland days no doubt, but if he got good positioning in the paint it was a foul or layup. I remember him throwing in some insane sky hooks around 08-09 season.
Has Lebron changed his game? Hell ya. Its like a switch went off in his head and he finally realized no one can stop him with his back to the basket. Too big, too strong, and most important elite basketball IQ. However if you notice his footwork is still pretty basic as is his post moves. Jump hook off left right shoulder, drop step, up and under, the ability to jump off any foot and get a shot, while basic it is all you need to get a quality look.
So yea his work outs with Hakeem helped him take a different mental approach on the block. But as in actual post moves Im not sure how much he actually learned. Lebron is much more Shaq on the block then Hakeem.

[GSP]

The Heat will have the #1 Ortg after this game theyre 2nd to Okc but barely. Theyre the better defensive team despite what the Drtg says so its gonna happen likely.

[toodles23]

Hopefully I don't jinx anything, but Lebron's jumper has been amazing lately. Best jumpshooting year of his career. He's truly unguardable right now.

[Mutnt]

LeBron's streak will just barely end in this game due to him taking a huge number of late shot-clock long threes and cause he looked like he really didn't care about taking high percentage shots in this game since he was bombing from long range all game. Still an amazing feat nonetheless.

[jjgp111292]

Off night for LeBron. Only shot 58%.

LOL but seriously, it was almost like that last three was him trolling the stat nerds.

[D.Brasco]

That streak has to be one of the more pressure building one's. It's one thing to be just on a scoring run where you can shoot as many time to keep it up but to keep up with 60%+ and 30 points, he's probably glad the monkey's off his back.