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Was '93 really Hakeem's peak?

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:26 pm
by ardee
It's a sentiment that has been passed around the board for a while and the more I look at it the more I wonder. '93-'95 are really very close. What is the separation that helps people choose?

Re: Was '93 really Hakeem's peak?

Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:20 pm
by Double Clutch
Halftime at the Spurs vs Grizz game and I noticed nobody replied to this thread and since I'm one of the people who do share this sentiment, I will take the time to share my opinion.

First of all, the primary argument used against 1993 Hakeem in contrast to the 1994 and especially 1995 versions is that his playoff run wasn't as good. I think everybody would agree 1993 Hakeem had the best regular season so I'm not going to talk about that as much. Most people would say that the 1995 playoff run was his best. We have to understand that playoff performances and especially the numbers are not accumulated in a vacuum. There are certain match ups and circumstances that can potentially dictate how a player performs.

The first thing you have to ask yourself is whether the 1995 playoff run was an aberration in his career? That is clearly not the case as he was generally a terrific playoff performer so it's not a case where you can say Hakeem finally put it all together and had a great playoff run.

The next thing you have to ask yourself is if Hakeem is in a better situation to put up offensive numbers in 1995 than he is in 1993. That to me is definitely true because he has superior back-up PG play with a second year Cassell while the 1993 Rockets had Scott Brooks which is really no comparison, there is even greater floor spacing as Horry spent a good amount of time at the 4 during the playoffs which is an offense at the expense of defense strategy (also benefited from the shortened 3 pt line) and the addition of Drexler brought another dimension to their offense, relieving some pressure off of him and Hakeem does benefit from Drexler’s presence as he’d often space the floor with Drexler either posting up or isolating which is naturally going to help him as he got better looks and Drexler really improved their transition game as well which Hakeem benefited from as the trailer. A secondary scorer is something lacking on the 1993 and 1994 Rockets.

Next, as a I mentioned earlier, match ups can dictate how a player performs. In the first round vs Utah in 1995, Hakeem put up immense numbers vs the Jazz and really played tremendous basketball especially in the two elimination games but when you look a little deep into it, he put up roughly the same numbers vs Utah in the season so he isn't elevating his play to a new level and also consider the fact that Utah's best center, Felton Spencer, was injured for the year. If you compare this series to Hakeem's 1994 WCF vs Utah, you'll notice Felton's presence was definitely missed because once Utah tweaked their defense a bit during the 1994 series (games 3-5), they were able to limit Hakeem's offensive production a bit as Felton was able to push him away from the basket, they started doubling him more often with the forwards so Hakeem would have a bit more difficulty passing out of the double and they'd also pressure the entry pass a bit so Hakeem would naturally have to come out further to receive the ball. These are not issues Hakeem had to deal with in the 1995 series with superior guard play, more of an open game and the lack of Spencer. The next series was against PHX where he was played well and came up clutch in the last three games but overall, I actually think he played a better series vs PHX in 1994. The 1995 San Antonio series is excellent, it's Hakeem's greatest playoff series and really what makes the 1995 playoff run so special but consider he did face single coverage quite a bit and how he had added motivation with Robinson being named the league MVP. This isn't to take away from the series at all by the way, it's easily one of the greatest series I've ever seen. The series vs Orlando is a great all-around performance but something I could definitely see the 1993 and 1994 versions duplicating and even surpassing due to superior defense and activity level.

Now, consider his match ups and circumstances in 1993, neither of which are very favorable so for Hakeem to play that well makes his playoffs that year even more impressive to me. As I mentioned earlier, the guard play is crucial to how a center plays as they're often responsible for getting him the ball. The guard play on the 1993 Rockets is fairly suspect with poor back-ups, the fact that Vernon Maxwell was out until game 4 of the Clipper series with a fractured wrist (he'd play with it for the rest of the playoffs) and this is further magnified by the fact that the two teams they were facing excelled in pressure defenses. There is no accurate way to account for how great a team is at pressuring and trapping the ball besides watching the games but two stats that will give you a rough estimation will be steals and turnovers forced. The 1993 Sonics were the #1 team in the league in both steals and turnovers forced. The 1993 Clippers were the #3 team in the league in steals and #4 in turnovers forced so the point I'm getting at is they were BOTH elite and combined with suspect guard play, this can really have a negative impact on a center's production. Kenny Smith was never great at handling pressure, didn't have the creativity and ball handling skills to evade the traps and made bad passes that could get picked off and Vernon Maxwell had erratic ball handling and also did not protect the ball though I think the fractured wrist probably effected that to some extent. With how predictable the 1993 Rockets' were on offense, what this also meant was that time would be taken off the clock with LAC and SEA pressuring the ball and instead of being aggressive and taking advantage of defense still recovering, they would try to run the offense by dumping it to Hakeem with less time on the clock. Some of the Rocket players would also stand still waiting to receive the pass instead of coming up and meeting the pass which would allow the defense to play the passing lanes and either force a deflection or a steal.

Here's an example from game 5 of the 1993 Rockets vs Clippers series where the pressure defense helped Clippers erase a big 4th quarter deficit:

The way the Los Angeles Clippers see it, the Rockets will go as far in the NBA playoffs as Hakeem Olajuwon can take them and as far as their erratic ballhandling will let them go.

The Clippers tried a variety of defensive measures on Olajuwon, but nothing stopped him for long. But the Clippers did employ a pressing defense at times that forced turnovers and kept the ball from getting into Olajuwon's hands.

The Rockets were in control of Saturday's series-ending playoff game with a 16-point lead early in the fourth quarter. But shortly thereafter Clippers coach Larry Brown called for the press, the Rockets went on one of their turnover binges, and the game turned around.

Los Angeles rallied to lead in the final minute before the Rockets recovered to win 84-80 at The Summit.
In the fourth quarter, the Rockets had 11 turnovers and were outscored 24-17.

Clippers guard Lester Conner, who played the final 11 minutes of the game, said: "We had to make something happen to try to scramble the game. We got where we wanted to be and had a chance to go up two (with 1:17 to go) with (Ron) Harper's free throw."

Harper, who had scored on a fast-break drive to give the Clippers an 80-79 lead, missed his chance at a three-point play, and the Rockets' Vernon Maxwell followed with a 3-pointer from the right side that put the Rockets ahead for good.

But what does the victory say for the Rockets? They were pushed to the limit to win this series against a .500 team that was looking forward to being dismantled in the offseason.

"They have a chance to go very far," said Conner, a former Rocket. "But Rudy (Tomjanovich) will have to be figuring out what to do against pressure.

"When they play a better team than we are, I don't know if they'll be able to deal with it (the press). We got a couple of victories with it, and we came within one shot of beating them today. They are beatable."

Forward Kenny Norman said: "I don't think the best team won, but that Olajuwon is unbelievable. I didn't realize he was that good."

Asked if Olajuwon deserves to be the league's Most Valuable Player, Norman said: "I said (Charles) Barkley all year, but I'm wondering now. That man (Olajuwon) is Superman."

Norman, who is not usually an outside shooter, was 2-for-2 on 3-point shots and scored 14 points.

Although he did not play the final 11 minutes of the game, he had no complaints because "Lester and the small lineup got us back in the game."

But there was no stopping the Rockets' big man, Olajuwon, who scored 31 points for the day and went 3-for-4 from the floor in the fourth quarter.

Stanley Roberts, who took turns with Danny Manning trying to guard Olajuwon, said: "He's going to do what it takes to win. There really is no stopping him."

Said Manning: "Hakeem had a great year and a great series. I think he will even play better as the playoffs move on. Defensively, I never was really able to stop him, but then again, there are not many players that have."

- Chron

Clippers were also focused on doubling Hakeem at all times and didn't play him straight up from my memory although I don't count plays where Hakeem makes his move early such as the baseline spin off the catch, turnaround jumper where he can evade the double team etc. Of course, Seattle would take this to another level than the Clippers as they had superior defensive personnel as well as a defensive mastermind in Bob Kloppenburg to create defensive schemes to negate Hakeem's impact as much as possible. Hakeem's numbers in the Seattle series may not stand out but he created a lot of opportunities because how much attention he received. They would also make adjustments throughout the series such as switching defenders, changing the identities of the double teamer, coming from different angles, fronting him and pressuring the ball handler to make it harder for the lob pass and a lot of times they could get away with having a defender on the front and on the back. Seattle would also try to run more and bait Houston into a running game where they tended to forget about Hakeem and the guards tended to chuck up more shots so this was also smart on Seattle's behalf. An example of this below from game 1 of this series:

Lacking alternatives, Karl went to a small lineup, and watched his club run up a 91-77 lead that proved to be too much to overcome with 7:07 remaining in a defensive matchup.

"That's sometimes how good coaches are made," Karl conceded.

Well, looky here. Like spying a dollar bill on the sidewalk, the Sonics may have stumbled across yet another look to toss at Olajuwon, the Rockets' superstar center. Call it the no-look.

Because, in this scheme, Olajuwon doesn't get to look at the ball.

With the smaller unit able to force the tempo, the Sonics ripped off nine unanswered points - the first five from Johnson, the last four from Pierce. The Sonics, as everybody knows, are at their best when things get crazy. The Rockets, on the other hand, have Olajuwon, so playing crazy usually is just plain insane.

"They're kind of an in-between team," Kloppenburg said. "They'll run, if they get the opportunities. But they mostly want the power game."

But there's nothing powerful about turnovers and wild three-pointers, which the Rockets produced when induced into an up-and-down game.

"If they're playing that way," said Johnson, who scored the Sonics' first 11 points of the fourth quarter and finished with 20, "they tend, at times, to forget about Hakeem."

Bingo.

http://community.seattletimes.nwsource. ... ug=1700685

Hakeem's production when you consider these two aspects is great because I believe you shouldn't penalize a big man if his perimeter players can't get him the ball or if they're being baited into an up and down game and seduced into playing into the opponent's hands although this does show an inherit limitation in a big man's game due to their inability to create offense from the get-go. The above issues are something Hakeem didn't come across in the 1994 or 1995 playoffs with the exception of the 1994 finals to a certain extent. Hakeem also didn't receive much support early on in this series; I remember Hubie Brown stating how he felt Hakeem was essentially playing 1 on 5 in the first two games at Seattle. In general, I think 1993 Hakeem got doubled a bit more than 1994 and especially 1995 Hakeem due to the strategies employed by the teams they faced as well as superior spacing on the 1995 team which can make your box score stats look weaker.

Now, when I compare 1993 Hakeem to 1994 Hakeem, I really don't see any improvements in the latter version mainly because he didn't get to work much on his game in the 1993 off-season as he had to get surgery on his finger (right hand) although he did work on his off-hand as a result. Meanwhile, 1993 Hakeem is very clearly a superior rebounder which can be backed up by the numbers, a tad quicker which I think was noticeable in his lateral movement and rotations and I also thought he had a bit more stamina preventing him from getting worn down late in games which happened in the 1994 playoffs (game 4 vs Portland, finals vs the Knicks etc). He did work on his strength and stamina in the 1994 off-season. I don't see a good reason why anybody should side with 1994 Hakeem as his peak year unless you're caught up in the MVP and championship narrative which you shouldn't be. His playoff run might be a little better but like I said, the circumstances and match ups definitely influence that. To me, he was pretty clearly the MVP in 1993 by the way and the 1994 Rockets as a team are a little better than the 1993 version due to the addition of Sam Cassell who was a solid back up PG, Horry improving as a player specifically in regards to his shooting and the addition of another solid defender and shooter in Mario Elie. I'm not even touching on the fact that the 1993 Rockets had a whole bunch of calls go against them in game 7 vs Seattle as well as a tip-in at the buzzer by David Robinson to force OT in the last game of the season which shouldn't have counted as it was late and that would've given Houston home court in the Seattle series (home team won every game).

When I compare 1993 Hakeem to 1995 Hakeem, I try to compare and weigh to what extent the improvement in certain skills translates to impact. 1993 Hakeem has a rather clear edge in athleticism especially in regards to quickness and leaping ability, offensive rebounding (more easier baskets), defensive rebounding, shot FTs a little better (very minor point though), transition defense, mobility on the perimeter, PnR defense and rim protection (thought he challenged more shots in the lane). His perimeter/PnR/transition defense is incredible in that series vs Seattle, just awe-inspiring to watch especially when you consider that Seattle had a well-balanced attack with multiple offensive threats all over the floor.

I noticed 1995 Hakeem took more of an offensive approach; perhaps, because they realized the team's strength clearly lied on the offensive end and he shifted his focus towards that side of the court and maybe conserved some energy on defense. His activity level in terms of challenging shots and crashing the boards had declined and Houston's PnR defense was exploited on occasion during the 1995 playoffs (games 3 and 4 vs SA come to mind) though I wouldn't attribute that to Hakeem but more so the strategy Houston chose to roll with in defending the play. I did notice he was more conscious of the roll man when he was guarding Shaq and Robinson which is understandable from a strategic standpoint and the main reason it was exploited was due to the guards often getting picked off and weakside help didn't come quick enough. But I also noticed that in general, Hakeem didn't show hard as much or as consistently as he did in the past and laid back on the play. Maybe this was due to the fact they lacked rebounding due to the Drexler/Thorpe trade but Hakeem's defensive rebounding numbers actually declined after the trade. The decrease in activity level is something you can argue in favor of 1993 Hakeem since he had better stamina so he didn't have to conserve energy as much. As for improvements, I would say 1995 Hakeem is a bit better at setting screens so his PnR and PnP game was better as a result and he also improved at slipping screens as well, he was more effective facing up and putting the ball on the floor, bit better footwork that along with his instincts allowed him to create more separation and more stuff on the fly, he perhaps had a bit more range to stretch the floor so his offensive portability is a little better although how much of this is due to simply having the room to showcase his stuff more often due to the improvement in Houston's spacing, facing less defensive attention and their guards were better at penetrating and creating (no Drexler and Cassell in 1993)? I think it definitely plays a part so while this does show Hakeem's ability to adjust with the system, you can perhaps say 1995 Hakeem doesn't have as much of an edge in these areas as you initially think since 1993 Hakeem wasn't used this way due to the make up of the team. With that said, his assistant coach (Carroll Dawson) did talk about how he added range to his jumper and there is a visible improvement in his pick setting in 1995. Some of it may have to do with the presence of Cassell as him and Sam had decent synergy on the PnR.

I'm really impressed by Hakeem's all around dominance in 1993 and while I did commend his clutch play in 1995, 1993 Hakeem was extremely clutch as well. The game 5 vs Clippers and the game 7 vs Seattle are two terrific elimination game performances.

To briefly indulge into Hakeem and the Rockets' regular season, they really became a great team after a few team meetings in January 1993 encouraging more unselfish and team basketball and Hakeem's leadership played a part in that. After a subpar 14-16 start, they went 41-11 to finish the season and Hakeem's numbers in that 52 gm stretch are really tremendous all-around: 26.9 ppg/13.3 rpg/4.0 apg/2.1 spg/4.2 bpg/53.0 FG%/79.4 FT%. I'm not overly impressed by the 1993 Rockets roster either partly for some the reasons that have been stated above such as their inability to handle pressure defenses along with their guard play in general.

I think Hakeem's decision making really improved this year which he alluded to in his HOF speech when he said Rudy T gave him more room to freelance which made him more conscious of his decisions and of course Rudy had designed the offense around him to maximize his talents. Hakeem also said the 1992 off-season was the first time he really worked on his game (shooting, spin moves, conditioning, passing) and the improvements in 1993 are rather obvious. It's why 1993 is his peak to me, he put it all together and his dominance on offense and defense overlapped to a greater extent than he did in 1994 and 1995 while having all the leadership, clutch play and mental game down.