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How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:33 pm
by ardee
This is the same principle as ElGee's thread about KG.
Kobe Bryant
1997 **Write improvement of average team here (in wins or SRS)**
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:43 pm
by SideshowBob
1997 -1.0
1998 +0.0
1999 +0.0
2000 +2.5
2001 +5.0
2002 +4.0
2003 +5.0
2004 +4.0
2005 +4.5
2006 +5.5
2007 +5.5
2008 +6.0
2009 +6.0
2010 +5.0
2011 +2.5
2012 +2.0
2013 +2.5
This one's rather difficult, because of defense. I'm not too high on him on that end outside of 2-3 years. However, during his prime, the problem was effort, not necessarily ability, which why we clearly see him look a little better in his championship seasons than his "carrying LA to the playoffs" seasons. Ultimately, I think I may have been too hard on him on that end.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:57 pm
by mysticbb
SideshowBob, are those per 100 poss numbers? Because, if you use that as SRS numbers, I think, they are a bit too high. It should be adjusted for average pace and minutes played. The same goes for the Garnett thread in your case.
To calculate wins over average, you can use the pythagorean expectation. As an example we can use 2006. Bryant made about +5.5 on offense and -0.5 on defense that season on a per game basis. The average score was 97-97. Therefore, we should expect an average team with Bryant added to be at 102.5 on offense vs. 97.5 on defense. Using win%=ppg^14.5/(ppg^14.5+oppg^14.5)=102.5^14.5/(102.5^14.5+97.5^14.5)=0.674. That means, that team is expected to go 54-26 over Bryant's 80 games. Without Bryant that would be 40-40, which means Bryant would have added 14 wins to that team, which is a lot.
We should also keep in mind that it is indeed easier to add wins to below average teams than to average or above average teams. I think Elgee made a point of that with his formulas for some sort of adjusted SIO or something like that.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:03 pm
by Kobe Bean
Can anyone aware me what this is? You guys continue to confuse me more than my maths class does haha
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:10 pm
by SideshowBob
mysticbb wrote:SideshowBob, are those per 100 poss numbers? Because, if you use that as SRS numbers, I think, they are a bit too high. It should be adjusted for average pace and minutes played. The same goes for the Garnett thread in your case.
To calculate wins over average, you can use the pythagorean expectation. As an example we can use 2006. Bryant made about +5.5 on offense and -0.5 on defense that season on a per game basis. The average score was 97-97. Therefore, we should expect an average team with Bryant added to be at 102.5 on offense vs. 97.5 on defense. Using win%=ppg^14.5/(ppg^14.5+oppg^14.5)=102.5^14.5/(102.5^14.5+97.5^14.5)=0.674. That means, that team is expected to go 54-26 over Bryant's 80 games. Without Bryant that would be 40-40, which means Bryant would have added 14 wins to that team, which is a lot.
We should also keep in mind that it is indeed easier to add wins to below average teams than to average or above average teams. I think Elgee made a point of that with his formulas for some sort of adjusted SIO or something like that.
Yeah, not adjusted for pace. I think I may have just pegged him too high on offense in order to compensate for knocking him for defense. Sticking with 2006, I had him at +6.0 offense, -0.5 defense. How does it look if I were to downscale every year by 0.5-1.0 offensively?
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:12 pm
by lorak
mysticbb wrote:To calculate wins over average, you can use the pythagorean expectation. As an example we can use 2006. Bryant made about +5.5 on offense and -0.5 on defense that season on a per game basis. The average score was 97-97. Therefore, we should expect an average team with Bryant added to be at 102.5 on offense vs. 97.5 on defense. Using win%=ppg^14.5/(ppg^14.5+oppg^14.5)=102.5^14.5/(102.5^14.5+97.5^14.5)=0.674. That means, that team is expected to go 54-26 over Bryant's 80 games. Without Bryant that would be 40-40, which means Bryant would have added 14 wins to that team, which is a lot.
Cool
But +5.5 O and -0.5 D numbers are based on what?
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:14 pm
by SideshowBob
Another point. Why is SRS typically looked at without adjusting for pace to begin with? Seems like it would make more sense for it to be consistently referenced as per100 than unadjusted, no?
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:55 pm
by ardee
Kobe Bean wrote:Can anyone aware me what this is? You guys continue to confuse me more than my maths class does haha
For each season of his career, how many wins (or SRS points) did Kobe Bryant add to a random, 41-win team (or 0 SRS team)?
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:59 pm
by ardee
I go:
1997: 0
1998: 0.5
1999: 1.5
2000: 3.5
2001: 6.5
2002: 5.0
2003: 6.5
2004: 4.5
2005: 3.0
2006: 7.0
2007: 6.0
2008: 7.0
2009: 6.5
2010: 5.5
2011: 4.0
2012: 4.5
2013: 6.0
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:10 pm
by SideshowBob
mysticbb wrote:SideshowBob, are those per 100 poss numbers? Because, if you use that as SRS numbers, I think, they are a bit too high. It should be adjusted for average pace and minutes played. The same goes for the Garnett thread in your case.
So with both this and the Garnett thread, if we assume that my numbers are per 100 possessions, would they fall into the ballpark of the RAPM figures you have?
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:16 pm
by SideshowBob
ardee wrote:I go:
2013: 6.0
Do you think LA would be a -5 to 6 SRS team without Kobe this year?
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:22 pm
by mysticbb
SideshowBob wrote:Yeah, not adjusted for pace. I think I may have just pegged him too high on offense in order to compensate for knocking him for defense. Sticking with 2006, I had him at +6.0 offense, -0.5 defense. How does it look if I were to downscale every year by 0.5-1.0 offensively?
Yeah, that sounds better, if you assume league average pace and about 40 mpg.
And yeah, the numbers are somewhat in the ballpark of the combined RAPM plus SPM figures I have (DS, that would also be the basis of the numbers for 2006 Bryant I used), with smaller differences, but overall they look pretty good, if you basically just made an educated guess.
SideshowBob wrote:ardee wrote:I go:
2013: 6.0
:o
Do you think LA would be a -5 to 6 SRS team without Kobe this year?
Yeah, that numbers is completely absurd.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:25 pm
by SideshowBob
mysticbb wrote:SideshowBob wrote:Yeah, not adjusted for pace. I think I may have just pegged him too high on offense in order to compensate for knocking him for defense. Sticking with 2006, I had him at +6.0 offense, -0.5 defense. How does it look if I were to downscale every year by 0.5-1.0 offensively?
Yeah, that sounds better, if you assume league average pace and about 40 mpg.
And yeah, the numbers are somewhat in the ballpark of the combined RAPM plus SPM figures I have (DS, that would also be the basis of the numbers for 2006 Bryant I used), with smaller differences, but overall they look pretty good, if you basically just made an educated guess.
Alright, I think I have a solid grasp of their impact then, just on an incorrect scale. And yeah, they're all essentially just educated guesses.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 7:54 pm
by ElGee
SideshowBob wrote:ardee wrote:I go:
2013: 6.0
Do you think LA would be a -5 to 6 SRS team without Kobe this year?
Let me defend Ardee...LA doesn't have to be a -5 or -6 SRS without Kobe this year for this value to be true. He could just be in a really bad situation where he isn't as valuable as he would be on other kinds of middling teams. I don't agree with his Kobe assessment, but it's not necessary for
the Lakers to be -5 or -6 for him to arrive at that conclusion.
That said, Ardee, I think this Kobe season highlights the things that you (and many others) overvalue in players perhaps more than a more celebrated season could illustrate. There is SO much more to basketball than isolation scoring or even box score metrics. It took me a long time to realize that. Even when I did realize that, I STILL overvalued it (go back and read the RPOY project specifically 2004 my thoughts on B Wallace or 1984 my thoughts on Bernard King). The reality is a player scoring a lot in isolation does not provide a huge Global lift. And a player with terrible Global defense hurts when the scale of their offense isn't epic. That's pretty much where Kobe falls this year.
For reference, I'll probably have 2013 pretty close to last year when it's all said and done:
1997 0
1998 2
1999 3
2000 4.5
2001 5.5
2002 4.5
2003 5.5
2004 4
2005 4.5
2006 5.5
2007 5.5
2008 6
2009 5.5
2010 5.5
2011 4
2012 3.5
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:17 pm
by ardee
SideshowBob wrote:ardee wrote:I go:
2013: 6.0
Do you think LA would be a -5 to 6 SRS team without Kobe this year?
Perhaps not literally that bad, but given the injuries we've had, we'd be in a very, very bad place without Kobe this year. The number of games he's literally won by himself is astonishing.
ElGee, I appreciate what you mean about efficient isolation scoring not having a global impact, but on a team where offense does not come easily it's mana from heaven, to quote a certain David Kahn. Remember when Nash and Gasol were both out? If Kobe is not on that team, where is the offense going to come from? Literally, where? Is Howard going to post up? You'd give up 4-5 extra turnovers a game feeding him in the post with those extra possessions. When a bad team gets an isolation scorer, it absolutely eases the pressure on the role players and allows them to play better defense, crash the boards more, and basically not worry about stretches where nothing is going in, because that's when the iso scorer can handle it.
I think that without Kobe this year, given the injuries, the Lakers would very clearly be far out of the Playoff race..... 37-35 would be closer to the mid-20s.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:41 pm
by RayBan-Sematra
Here is a very rough draft.
1998 +0.0
1999 +1.0
2000 +2.5
2001 +4.0
2002 +2.5
2003 +3.0
2004 +2.0
2005 +3.5
2006 +5.0
2007 +5.0
2008 +6.0
2009 +6.0
2010 +4.5
2011 +1.0
2012 +1.5
2013 +2.5?
I am not really an "SRS" expert so I basically just used different numbers to represent the value & impact Kobe had over the years for the teams he was on.
Little summary of his play over the years.
00 : Elite defense with good offense.
Underrated year for Kobe even though obviously he was still young and in need of development.
01 : Outlier type year where he played amazing ball from point A to point Z but still slightly overrated by some due to him being under the radar and playing off of Peak Shaq.
02 : Basically reverts back to his 00 level.
Slightly better offense but noticeably worse defense then 00 Kobe.
03 : Amazing regular season but mediocre playoffs.
This is the first year where he starts causing chemistry issues and is overly ball dominant.
04 : Mediocre year on the whole (especially in the playoffs).
05 : An injured Kobe who plays no defense.
Still clearly has a huge impact to his team due to a relatively weak roster.
06 : Start of Peak
07 : Peak
08 : Peak + better defensive effort
09 : Peak + better defensive effort
2010 : Huge decline. Arguably becomes a net negative on the defensive end.
Offensive consistency worsens and occasionally his ball dominance hurts the team.
2011 : Another huge decline.
Becomes a borderline liability on the defensive end and offensively he plays very selfishly
Offensive consistency worsens drastically.
2012 : Offense improves slightly but defense worsens and selfish play is still an issue.
Offensive consistency doesn't improve.
2013 : Offensive efficiency and consistency improve dramatically.
Ball dominance is still a questionable issue and his defense is possibly his worst ever.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 11:18 pm
by nikomCH
What evidence is there that Kobe was a net negative on defense in 2010? If anything it was offense where he declined that season.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 11:26 pm
by thebottomline
I don't understand all the ins and outs of SRS impact or adding wins. I'm mostly using what I saw during the peaks project and elsewhere, where +9 is considered peak Jordan/Shaq level and +6 is generally MVP level, as a reference to gauge my own numbers.
These were my numbers going one year after the other:
1997 -0.5
1998 +2
1999 +3
2000 +4
2001 +5
2002 +4.5
2003 +5.5
2004 +4
2005 +4.5
2006 +6
2007 +6
2008 +6.5
2009 +5.5
2010 +5
2011 +4
2012 +3
2013 +3.5
I think it's interesting to then look at years that are far apart, e.g. early career vs late career and see if the numbers make any sense. Would I really take 2000 Kobe over 2011-2013? Probably, when you factor in defense. But looking at someone like ardee's list, for example, he has 2011-2013 Kobe over 2000 Kobe by a significant margin...
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 2:22 am
by SideshowBob
ElGee wrote:
Let me defend Ardee...LA doesn't have to be a -5 or -6 SRS without Kobe this year for this value to be true. He could just be in a really bad situation where he isn't as valuable as he would be on other kinds of middling teams. I don't agree with his Kobe assessment, but it's not necessary for the Lakers to be -5 or -6 for him to arrive at that conclusion.
Yeah, honestly I think my response was a little impulsive. It was more directed at the figure itself. I don't think Kobe's anywhere NEAR a +6 player right now.
I get that we're discussing ability to impact here rather than actual impact itself. I'm comfortable with my own ballparks not falling perfectly in line with what we have actually measured with +/- models, because those are estimating value to those teams in particular.
1997 0
1998 2
1999 3
2000 4.5
It's clear that I haven't done my work with most of these guys' early seasons. I've typically assumed the high-school guys as close to if not completely non-impact level players for their early years, and I think it's fair to say that that's probably not the case.
Re: How many wins is Kobe Bryant worth?
Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 2:28 am
by SideshowBob
RayBan-Sematra wrote:Here is a very rough draft.
1998 +0.0
1999 +1.0
2000 +2.5
2001 +4.0
2002 +2.5
2003 +3.0
2004 +2.0
2005 +3.5
2006 +5.0
2007 +5.0
2008 +6.0
2009 +6.0
2010 +4.5
2011 +1.0
2012 +1.5
2013 +2.5?
For someone known for being highly "anti-Kobe" that seems actually pretty reasonable. 2011-2013 look a little low, but other than that, it looks in line with what everyone else in this thread thinks so far.