RealGM

This is the same principle as ElGee's thread about KG and mine about Kobe, just looking to make a series of threads about popular players.

For each season of his career, how many wins (or SRS points) did Kobe Bryant add to a random, 41-win team (or 0 SRS team)?

Average teams are the most common lot of NBA teams. Imagine some teams have a Unipolar scorer (Iverson), some teams have a good big, etc. (Here are actual samples of what a ~0 SRS/41-win team looks like: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=team_totals&lg_id=NBA&year_min=1996&year_max=&franch_id=&c1stat=srs&c1comp=gt&c1val=-1&c2stat=srs&c2comp=lt&c2val=1&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=srsNow add him to all of those teams -- some he will fit better on than others, this must be taken into account -- and take the average improvement. Write that new SRS number down next to the year!

LeBron James
2004 **Write improvement of average team here (in wins or SRS)**
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

He is worth a lot, maybe like 40, 50 wins.

40 wins to the 09 and 10 cavs

The math tells me maybe 20 wins. But seriously, the Cavs were not an average team without him. Can any of us honestly say he wasnt worth AT LEAST 30 wins?

SRS points

2004 +2.5
2005 +4.5
2006 +5.5
2007 +4.5
2008 +6.5
2009 +8
2010 +8
2011 +7
2012 +8
2013 +9

Easily around 30.

Put him on the Bobcats and they'd probably win 50.

colts18 wrote:40 wins to the 09 and 10 cavs

This.

2004 +0.0
2005 +3.5
2006 +5.0
2007 +4.0
2008 +5.5
2009 +8.5
2010 +9.0
2011 +6.5
2012 +8.0
2013 +10.0

Also, he's not worth anywhere near 30 or 40 wins on the average 0.0 SRS team even at his absolute best. That's laughable, and also nonsensical. I think you could argue mid 20s at the highest. Perhaps on sub 0 SRS teams (like the Cavs), it can be argued, but that's hardly important.

It really depends almost entirely on the rules. Is this under real basketball rules, or post 2004 NBA entertainment ball rules? With real rules, -5 to -10 wins in his prime. With today's rules,

2004 -5 wins
2005 -1
2006 +1
2007 0
2008 +2
2009 +5
2010 +5
2011 -2
2012 +1
2013 +6

ThatsWhatIShved wrote:It really depends almost entirely on the rules. Is this under real basketball rules, or post 2004 NBA entertainment ball rules? With real rules, -5 to -10 wins in his prime. With today's rules,

2004 -5 wins
2005 -1
2006 +1
2007 0
2008 +2
2009 +5
2010 +5
2011 -2
2012 +1
2013 +6

Never disappoints.

ThatsWhatIShved wrote:It really depends almost entirely on the rules. Is this under real basketball rules, or post 2004 NBA entertainment ball rules? With real rules, -5 to -10 wins in his prime. With today's rules,

2004 -5 wins
2005 -1
2006 +1
2007 0
2008 +2
2009 +5
2010 +5
2011 -2
2012 +1
2013 +6

I like how you state it so non chalantly

SideshowBob wrote:Also, he's not worth anywhere near 30 or 40 wins on the average 0.0 SRS team even at his absolute best. That's laughable, and also nonsensical. I think you could argue mid 20s at the highest. Perhaps on sub 0 SRS teams (like the Cavs), it can be argued, but that's hardly important.

Well, you have his 2013 at +10 SRS, which is better than this year's Thunder team, who have a 9.27 SRS and a Pythagorean W-L of 57-15, which would be on pace for 65 wins in an 82 game season. So assuming something like 67 wins for a 0 SRS team with 2013 LeBron added...that's +26 wins. Not exactly "not anywhere near 30 wins".

Also, since the Heat are a 7.19 SRS team...you think they're about -3 SRS without LeBron, even with Wade/Bosh/shooters?

therealbig3 wrote:

SideshowBob wrote:Also, he's not worth anywhere near 30 or 40 wins on the average 0.0 SRS team even at his absolute best. That's laughable, and also nonsensical. I think you could argue mid 20s at the highest. Perhaps on sub 0 SRS teams (like the Cavs), it can be argued, but that's hardly important.

Well, you have his 2013 at +10 SRS, which is better than this year's Thunder team, who have a 9.27 SRS and a Pythagorean W-L of 57-15, which would be on pace for 65 wins in an 82 game season. So assuming something like 67 wins for a 0 SRS team with 2013 LeBron added...that's +26 wins. Not exactly "not anywhere near 30 wins".

Also, since the Heat are a 7.19 SRS team...you think they're about -3 SRS without LeBron, even with Wade/Bosh/shooters?

+10 on a 98/98 0 SRS (41/41) team this season would put them at 66.4 Pythagorean Wins, which is 25.4 wins added. I suppose "not anywhere near" was an overstatement.

And I don't consider Miami a 7 SRS team, just like I didn't consider them a +5.76 team last season. They played like a 4 SRS team for the first 40% of this season and have played like an ~10-11 SRS team since. They played at a ~10 SRS level in the postseason last year, and a +12.6 level in 14 games with Bosh. I think it's reasonable to assume they were a true +9-10 team last season (their competition was weaker than their playoff SOS indicates), and I consider their ceiling to be much higher this year, around +12. . An average portability +10 player would put a +4.0 SRS team at +12. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Miami would be around that without James, that'd put them at mid-50s in terms of wins (53 PW for a +4.0 SRS team) and right atop the Eastern Conference.

Easily 30 Wins

I wish people would read the OP....

SRS:
2004 +0.5
2005 +3.5
2006 +5.0
2007 +5.0
2008 +6.5
2009 +9.0
2010 +8.5
2011 +6.5
2012 +8.0
2013 +9.0

LeBron James
2004 - +3.0 WS (44.0)
2005 - +6.0 WS (47.0)
2006 - +12.0 WS (53.0)
2007 - +9.0 WS (50.0)
2008 - +10.0 WS (51.0)
2009 - +20.0 WS (61.0)
2010 - +19.0 WS (60.0)
2011 - +16.0 WS (57.0)
2012 - +20.5 WS (60.5)
2013 - +21.0 WS (62.0)

depends on the team

For a team like Charlotte, 30 wins.

For us (Miami), 10-12 wins.