AnaheimRoyale wrote:Joe Dumars- Detroit Pistons (2000-present)The story of Joe Dumars the Exec, now stretching over 12 years, is a long and complex one which is best divided into 3 periods; hero, mediocrity and villain. By looking at that context, we can best see where Joe is likely to go in the future.
Joe Dumars the HeroJoe Dumars arrived in 2000 in a pretty grim situation. The Heat had just won 42 games and had been swept in the first round, mega-star Grant Hill had decided to leave, and the team didn’t have a whole lot else to build around. Joe made a series of moves that changed all that.
Firstly, he got the Magic to compensate him for taking Grant Hill with Ben Wallace. In retrospect Ben Wallace would go on to be a franchise player and 4 time DPOY, while Grant Hill would never fully recover from his injuries (due to the doctor botching the operation). Great move.
Joe followed this up with
a lot of little trades in 2000, trying to find the right balance of role players, trying to keep track of it all isn’t easy, but none of them is especially significant. He traded for Ceballos, then traded him away months later, he sign Joe Smith, who left that offseason, he brought over bit players like Dana Barros… the guy just kept tinkering, trying to get the formula right. One of the more successful moves was to get Corliss Williamson for virtually nothing. Corliss would go on to be 6th man of the year for the Pistons in his 2nd year, and was a great add.
From 2000 through to the 2002 draft Joe had done some very good things, but if there was one fault he showed during this time (and one which would become obvious in future years) it was that he was a pretty mediocre drafter. It was fair enough that he got a dud in the 2000 draft with Cleaves, most teams got duded that draft (it was the worst draft of all time for talent), but selecting Rodney White in the 2001 draft was a huge mistake, the very next pick was Joe Johnson, and he passed on Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker… heck, even guys like Troy Murphy, Haywood, Radmanovic, etc, would have been vastly better choices that a guy who was out of the NBA before his rookie contract was up. It was in 2001 that he gave away the Pistons 2005 pick for no good reason as well. He got Okur in the 2nd round in 2001 of course, but Joe basically lucked out. If Joe really knew how good Okur was going to be, he wouldn’t have signed him to a 2 year contract (which under the CBA at the time, meant he was certain to leave the Pistons, which he duly did). More on this later.
Coming into the 2002 offseason Joe had taken a team who looked to be in rebuilding mode when he arrived, to a 50 win season 2 years later. Now in fairness, the East was pitiful in 2002, so the Pistons talent wasn’t reflected accurately in that 50 win record (they were 12-16 v.s Western Conference teams), but there was no doubting things were going great. In the 2002 draft Joe made one of his best draft picks, taking Prince late in the 1st round. A great move. He also signed Billups for the MLE, partly by promising him the starting job, an even bigger home run, as Billups was grossly undervalued and would become a huge star. He then traded Stackhouse for Rip, another huge home run. Things were looking great for the Pistons, who romped to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2003. Management forced Joe to fire the Coach of the Year (Rick Carlisle), but Joe managed to hire an even better coach (a still hungry Larry Brown), who helped Billups improve as a player a lot.
In 2003-4 Joe had both his masterstroke and his biggest cock up. Joe used the old boys network to get Rasheed Wallace for virtually nothing, as he’d worn his welcome out on the Blazers, a move that allowed the Pistons to win a title. However he also used the #2 pick in one of the most top heavy drafts of all time to draft Darko, who would go on to be a huge bust. Worse still, Joe let Larry Brown destroy Darko’s confidence, and eroded his trade value to nothing. This was pretty short sighted asset management. However as the Pistons won the title fans didn’t mind, and Joe was hailed as one of the best GM’s in the game. People saw his home runs, getting Rip, Sheed, Ben, Billups for almost nothing, and thought “this guy is magic”.
Unfortunately, Joe believed it…
Joe Dumars living off his past deedsAt the press conference, after winning the 2004 title, Joe spoke to the media. He talked about team work, about how playing as a unit beats star power like the Lakers, he talked about how before getting Sheed he felt they were “one piece away”, and how he had “felt like it was my responsibility to get that final piece”. It was a great story, the sort fans and the media love to hear. Unfortunately it wasn’t true. Joe remembered his own playing days, where the bad boys had won two titles against the razzle dazzle of big names, and he saw the confirmation of that strategy in the 2004 Pistons. Unfortunately Joe had misunderstood both the history of the bad boys, and the nature of the 2004 Pistons.
The Bad Boys didn’t have Magic or Bird or Jordan, but what they did have was a team with astounding depth. This was a team who had 2 all-star calibre players coming off the bench (Dennis Rodman and Vinnie Johnson). They had an all-star talent big man who could shoot from outside (Laimbeer), 2 of the best guards in the NBA in their starting backcourt (Isiah and Joe D), a former MVP candidate/all-star in his prime (Dantley/Aguirre), and a host of awesome defensive players like Mahorn the wall, and Salley the Spider. And some of these guys weren’t simply all-stars, they were all-nba type players who sometimes got MVP votes. Rodman had MVP votes 4 separate years, ranking as high as 10th place (and this guy was coming off their bench!). Dantley had been 7th in the voting. In addition, while those Pistons teams were awesome, they won their two titles due to circumstances as well. The Celtics and Lakers were getting old and hobbled by injuries, and Jordan didn’t yet have the talent around him to win a title (and as soon as he did, the Pistons title window closed for good). If those Pistons teams had been playing from 1983-86 or from 1991-93, they would have had zero titles. But Joe didn’t understand this reality.
He made the same mistake when he looked at the 2004 Pistons. He saw a team of hard workers who had won a David v.s Goliath struggle. In reality, people had simply underrated the Pistons prior to 2004. Sheed had a bad rep, Ben had been misused as a small forward before he came to the Pistons, and had to prove himself before his critics took him seriously as a 5. Billups had been written off as a bust years earlier, and Rip had been discarded by the greatest player of all-time. In reality though, the Pistons had a huge amount of talent. The Pistons had Billups (5th and 6th in the MVP vote, 3 all-NBA teams, etc, despite blossoming late in his career), Ben Wallace (top 10 MVP vote 3 times, 5 All-NBA teams, 4 time DPOY... this guy was clearly a franchise value player in his prime), and Sheed (a franchise talent who didn't apply himself consistently, he was the best player on a team who was 1 decent quarter away from beating the 2000 Lakers and winning a title). Then they had another all-star (Rip), a way above average starter (Prince)... when you have 5 guys like that starting, it doesn't matter if you've got an MVP. The Lakers had a prime Shaq who was not in his peak anymore, a washed out Gary Payton, a beat up and nearly finished Karl Malone, and Kobe Bryant playing some of the most disgustingly selfish finals ball ever seen. In retrospect it’s not a big surprise the Lakers lost.
This misunderstanding of the Pistons is important, because it is at the root of Joe’s subsequent failings. I posted about it on another thread:
I could get struck by lightning when I leave today as well, but I'd never rely on it.
It's also much harder to build a team this way. If my GM sets out with the goal of building a team in the mold of the 2004 Pistons, he should be fired, because he is basically relying on incredibly unlikely and longshot things to happen. Just look at the stuff that happened for that to pan out ok (for one year):
* Nobody uses Ben Wallace properly, or realises that he's be a star at C instead of SF, and he's then given away by the Magic as a throw in (after the Wizards gave him away so they could get Ike Freaking Austin).
* Rasheed Wallace is traded for nothing to the Pistons, finds himself in Detroit and overcomes most of his personal issues (on the court anyway)
* The GOAT attempts an ill-advised comeback on the Wizard, and playing the GM, he decides to trade Rip for Stackhouse, because he doesn't feel Rip compliments him as well, and isn't a vet yet.
* A future top 5-6 MVP candidate and elite PG is horribly mis-used by the team that drafted him with their idiot College coach, bounces around for a few years, finds himself on the Wolves and lights it up in the end of the season and playoffs, but the Wolves refuse to re-sign him because McHale is an idiot, and because they already have a PG (who would never play again). As a consequence, you get him on the cheap.
* You then draft the perfect compliment to these guys with a mid first rounder.
Yeh, that'll happen twice.
I think the downside of the Pistons fantastic achievement in 2004 was it gave Joe the idea that he could build a team around 5 really good guys instead of 1 star, and historically that’s been nearly impossible to do (especially since 3 of his guys weren’t just “really good”, but were borderline franchise players, and those don’t grow on trees). It didn’t cause a problem right away, but the seed was planted.
After 2004 of course the Pistons still had great teams. Joe should be commended for building a culture of hard work and professionalism, for being able to more or less keep Sheed happy, and for dealing with Larry Brown’s love obsession with moving teams by replacing him with a coach who was able to make the Pistons play together even better (in the regular season anyway). When you make the conference finals 6 years running, you’ve obviously done something right. Joe also made other good decisions during this period; he didn’t match Ben Wallace’s oversized contract (Ben was on the verge of breaking down as a player, so this was a great move), he traded Darko before his value totally collapsed, he signed surprisingly good vet McDyess. On the downside, he traded Corliss Williamson (who still had something left in the tank) for Derrick Coleman, who basically didn’t play for the Pistons at all. Looks pretty bad in hindsight.
Joe continued to treat draft picks pretty badly as well. He traded away a first rounder so he could get Arroyo, then a year later he ships Arroyo off. Sure, that wasn’t a very good 1st rounder as it turned out, but it’s bad asset management. Maxiell was a bit of a meh pick, Stuckey was a solid enough pick, but nothing special. There was a time Pistons fans talked of Stuckey’s hidden “star potential”, but 5 years on and he’d been a big disappointment, and is still a below average player for his position (assuming he has one). Worse, Joe drafted Afflalo only to give him away 2 years on. If Joe had an eye for talent, he clearly didn’t use it here. Afflalo looks better than Stuckey does these days. Joe didn’t really do anything great during this period, but didn’t do anything bad either, he just let the Pistons keep making the Conference finals, and waited for the right move…
Joe Dumars the BumblerThe moment when most fans trace Joe’s descent into incompetence begins with his decision to trade away star point guard Billiups for disgruntled cancer Allen Iverson. From the outset, the move made little to no sense; Iverson had no position on the Pistons, the whole reason for the 76ers had to find Eric Snow was because AI couldn’t play point guard. Worse, Iverson was the classic example of a player doomed to fall apart physically as he aged- he played too many minutes, relied on his speed a great deal, and had poor conditioning. Magic Johnson had commented on Iverson’s conditioning some years earlier, comparing him to Kevin Johnson, a guy who Magic had always told during his career “would be a 10 year player”, because he didn’t look after his body (KJ had always laughed Magic off when he said this, but sure enough KJ aged poorly). Iverson had been in the NBA over 10 years. Worse still, Joe had gotten rid of Flip Saunders, who had proven a great coach for the Pistons, and brought in Michael Curry, a 40 year old former defensive guard with no coaching experience and no credibility. It was naïve to think Iverson and the veteran Pistons would respond to him, or treat him as an authority figure. Meanwhile Billups helped the Nuggets to the Western Conference Finals.
Now of course, half the reason for making the trade was to get Iverson’s expiring contract. But there were other ways to get cap space that didn’t involve trading Billups. Worse still, Joe had totally overestimated his capacity to get free agents to come to a rebuilding team like the Pistons. His pick up on Ben Gordon and Charlie V was just awful. Then to make matters worse, he had just extended Rip Hamilton, less important than Billups, and went on the extend Prince when they should have been rebuilding. Joe’s drafts continued to be very hit and miss. He picked Daye, a guy who has yet to prove he can be more than a bench warmer, while passing on Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson and Taj Gibson, all clearly superior players who fitted the Pistons needs to a T. He traded Budinger away for nothing. And while Monroe was a great pick, his selection of Brandon Knight was not. Passing on guys like Kawhi Leonard and Klay Thompson is going to look really bad in a few years, and quite a few other guys they passed on have looked pretty good too.
Perhaps worst of all, has been Dumars slowness to correct the situation. Once the team hit the skids, he didn’t try to rebuild, except inadvertently through his poor coach hires, and continues to try and milk wins out of teams who were clearly going nowhere, things even getting as bad as a player mutiny against one of his coaches. Now obviously Joe has been handicapped a little by the ownership issues, but really, that’s no excuse for most of the mistakes he’s made.
Where are we nowJoe is now in a situation where he has some talented young guys like Drummond, and not a lot of chance for short term success. We’ll have to wait and see if Joe can redeem himself, but if he wants to it is clear he needs to address two issues badly:
1) Joe needs to get better scouts, and reassess the way he makes draft picks. I’m hopeful he’s already started doing this, which would explain why he picks the last few years look a lot better than they did prior to 2010.
2) Secondly, Joe needs to go back and rethink his strategic understanding of basketball. Building a title team without a true superstar is one of the hardest, least likely things to happen in the NBA, and just because he caught lightning once, it’s no reason to think he can do it again, as recent years have proven. He needs to know when to lose in the short term, to win long term, and he needs a better eye for talent. Signing guys like Ben Gordon and Charlie V… just awful.