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The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:26 pm
by jman2585
The General Manager Analysis Project

I noticed a thread similar to this while searching for threads on the best/worst GM’s, and it struck me as a really good idea to have around, possibly as a sticky.

The idea is to provide a fast reference point for people to quickly locate information of the dealings of any given GM, and assess their body of work without lengthy research. However it also functions as a thread on which considerable discussion and analysis can take place.

Some of the analysis is my own, and where it is not I have attributed it to others, however any additional contributions people would like to make are also welcome, and can be added. If you want to contribute, just let me know. For ease of reference I have added a contents section here:

Best managed teams
Within each tier there is a range. In this tier there are GM's at the top of it (like Popp/Buford, Presti, Red, Riley, etc), and then there's a few I rank clearly below them (like West & Kupchak), for reasons covered in each write up.
- Spurs (Poppovich and Buford tenure)
- Thunder (Presti), 2007-present
-The Heat (Pat Riley)
- Lakers (Jerry West), 1982-2000
- Boston (Red Auerbach), 1950-1984
- Lakers (Mitch Kupchak), 2000-present

To some degree I see most of the Spurs outposts (and the Cavs) as potentially being somewhere between these teams, and the next category, but I won't add them here until they have a more exhaustive record (they can be found below in a separate section in this post).

Middling to good management
- Kings (Petrie), 1994-present
- Memphis (Jerry West), 2002-2007
- Rockets (Morey), 2007-present
- Pacers (Walsh), 1986-2003
- Cavs (Ferry), 2005-2010
- Denver (Ujiri), 2010-present
- Denver (Kikki), 2001-2006
- Boston (Danny Ainge), 2003-present
- Dallas (Donnie Nelson), 2005-present
- Bucks (Don Nelson), 1977-1987

Mediocre management overall, but caveats to it
- Pistons (Dumars), 2000-present
- Nets (Billy King), 2010-present

Bad management
- Bucks (Hammond), 2008-present
- Clippers (Top 9 biggest Sterling Stuff Ups to Save Money)
- Wolves (Kahn!!!!), 2009-present
- Magic (Otis Smith), 2005-2012
- Suns (Blanks), 2010-present

Contenders for worst managers of all-time
- Knicks (Isiah Thomas), 2003-2008
- Knicks (Layden), 1999-2003
- 76ers (Nash), 1986-1990
- Raptors (Colangelo), 2006-present
- Cavs (Paxson), 1999-2005
- Wizard/Bullets (Unseld), 1997-2003

Teams I like the general direction of (but whose front office hasn't been around long enough to really be in the top categories yet)
I should link people to this post first, basically a summary from me on why rebuilding through the draft is the only way to go.
- Cleveland (Chris Grant), 2010-present
The other 4 Spurs front office outposts tracking section
Everyone knows about the Thunder, but there are actually 4 other front offices now run by formers Spurs front office staff:
- Magic (Hennigan), 2012-present
- Hawks (Ferry), 2012-present
- Pelicans/Hornets (Demps), 2010-present
- Jazz (Lindsey), 2012-present

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:26 pm
by jman2585
Spurs (Poppovich and Buford tenure)
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:The Spurs- GOAT Management- Popp/Buford, late 90’s-Present

I’m primarily talking about the Spurs management from the early/mid 90’s through to today, and more specifically around about the time they acquired Tim Duncan, which is when the current front office came into place. I think that’s a sufficiently large sample size, it’s longer than the period Red was in the Celtics front office. In effect, I’ll call this the Poppovich Front Office, because while I am aware Buford is now GM, and others like Presti (who has since been poached, along with a number of other Spurs front office staff) contributed a lot too, the one constant has been Popp, who for all intents and purposes has the final say, like any other GM.

The most impressive thing about the Spurs front office (FO) is the context in which they’ve achieved their success. They have had no natural advantages whatever, and very little luck. The city of SA is not “the 9th largest in the US” as people ignorantly claim all the time when downgrading the Spurs market size, because that’s based on artificial boundary drawing, the metro size of SA is much, much lower ranked. The city has nothing really to draw free agents, and if a league were starting from scratch, there is no way SA would have a team. The reason it does is due to historical accident, which involved the ABA and their cowboy style business ownership, expanding to all sorts of wacky places, provided someone would put the money for it up, and not caring if the team was viable long term. That accident, combined with the success of the franchise, led to them being one of the 4 teams brought into the NBA, and even then there was talk of hem being relocated for years. However the sheer success they’ve had, and the resulting fan support for the cities only sports team, has put that talk to rest. They’ve made the playoffs 40 times out of 45 seasons. Since the arrival of Duncan 15 years ago the team has won 4 titles, and averaged 57.73 wins per season, I don’t think there has been another team in NBA history who have seen a 15 year stretch with such a high win %.

The franchise has had 2 key pieces of luck of course, winning the lotto in 1987 and 1997, but that aside the luck of the franchise has been few and far between. The Spurs lucked out in 1988 and 89, during which time D.Rob was finishing his military service, and with some luck they could have added 2 more stars. Instead everyone tanked hard in 1988, meaning the Spurs made the playoffs with 31 wins and got Willie Anderson with the 10th pick, while in 1989 the Spurs got the 3rd pick in a draft which was quite weak (both the first 2 picks were busts), the Spurs have only had 4 lotto picks since 1987, D.Rob, W.Anderson, S.Elliot and T.Duncan. Nor do I think the Spurs lottery luck is something that should be getting criticised by other teams. People are praising the Lakers, who had the #1 pick twice in 4 years in order to assemble the Showtime Lakers (netting them Magic and Worthy). The Clippers won the lottery 5 times since it was introduced (though they traded 2 of those picks away). The Celtics were basically allowed to cheat the system, both so they could acquire Bird (drafting him before he finished school), and then to keep him (hence the name “Bird Rights”), and Red in the old Celtics days benefitted from a much less professional league, in which factors like race were still considerations in acquiring players, and where you could use “territorial picks” to screw small markets.

So with this in mind, I want to look at the Spurs FO under Popp, and highlight why I feel it is clearly superior to any other that has existed.

Draft Picks
If one aspect of the Spurs management stands out as especially impressive, it’s their performance in the draft. I’ve done a year by year analysis and grade.

2011- Obtained K.Leonard for G.Hill. Leonard looks like the next Shawn Marion, while George Hill is a bench player. A good bench player to be sure, but he’s not going to be nearly as valuable as Leonard, who if the draft were redone today would probably go in the top 5 picks. The Spurs also got Bertans in the trade, who could develop into an NBA player (though he looked dreadful in some international games recently), and Lorbek, who the Spurs will be bringing over to be a rich man’s Bonner soon (less range, better player). The Spurs also got Corey Joseph, who looks like he could turn into a nice back-up still, which is good value for the 2nd last pick in the 1st round. I have no idea whether Hanga will turn out to be any good.
Grade: A++

2010- Acquired James Anderson with the 20th pick. This move looks like a mistake at the moment. In fairness, James was injured almost his whole rookie year, and now is stuck in a logjam behind better (and/or more experienced) players like Leonard, S.Jax, D.Green, G.Neal, Manu, etc. That leaves little time for him to be developed, so he’ll be gone this offseason to another team that might be able to use him. I don’t think he’ll be good value for the #20 pick, but I still think he’ll make a good journeyman for some other team, a poor man’s Derek Anderson basically. This isn’t as bad a move as it might seem, because the 2010 draft sucked, and the Spurs didn’t really have to pass on anyone to take James (the only guy better was Fields in the mid 2nd round, who everyone missed). Ryan Richards our 2nd round pick looks good overseas, and might warm our bench in a few years.
Grade: C

2009- Blair, for all his faults, was a great 2nd round pick up. Before we had as much depth as we have now, he was very useful indeed, especially in the regular season, and he is extremely cheap. Before he goes, I hope we get a nice asset for him. Nando de Colo looks good overseas, and could still be a good bench warmer. Great return for some 2nd rounders. This draft used to be an A+, until Blair started hurting his value.
Grade: A

2008- George Hill was an excellent pick up at the bottom of the 1st round. Dragic was never our pick, he was made for the Suns, and we wouldn’t have had room to play him with Parker and Hill, we also used the 2nd rounder we got for him to draft Blair, so it all worked out.
Grade: A

2007- Got Splitter at the end of the first round. He’s playing great for us now (check out his per 36 numbers), and is going to be playing more and more minutes as Tim’s role decreases. He’s not the all-star we once hoped he might be capable of becoming, but he’ll be a huge part of our team going forward, and would definitely be a top 10 talent from this draft in retrospect.
Grade: A

2006- We had traded our pick, and it was used on scrub talent (Mardy Collins). Not a loss, this was part of a trade that was well worth it, getting Nazr in exchange for the awfulness that was Malik Rose and his huge contract.
Grade: N/A

2005: Ian Mahinmi. Turned out to be a bad pick. We didn’t really miss out on much, the talent after that was weak, and consisted mostly in empty stat padders who wouldn’t have gotten minutes on our team (David Lee, Monta, Gomes, Blatche, etc), but it’s still a bad pick… we should have traded it.
Grade: D

2004: Got Udrich. Good, solid back up PG, well worth his slot. The only guy I’d have preferred would have been Varejao, and he fell to the first pick in the 2nd round for a reason, because of his contract situation. If we’d drafted him, he never would have been able to come over, so we’d have thrown the pick away.
Grade: B+

2003: Didn’t have a pick. We’d moved it to acquire a future pick (the 05 first rounder as it turned out), which was a good gamble (looked awesome in 04 when the Suns missed the playoffs). We then used that asset as part of a trade to move the awful Malik for Nazr, which helped us win the 05 title. Barbosa on the other hand wouldn’t have fit in our system at all, and we not a loss (though it sucked that Phoenix got him). The trade was fair. Actually, it’s now well documented that the Spurs wanted Kendrick Perkins with this pick, and were devastated when he got take one spot ahead.
Grade: N/A

2002: No pick, used it to get Claxton, who was a vital contributor to the 03 team, owing to Parker’s choking. Well worth John Salmons. Got Scola in the 2nd round, which I’ll discuss later in this post.
Grade: N/A

2001: Tony Parker. No need to say more. Javtokas would have made this an even better trade if he hadn’t gotten himself into a motorcycle accident.
Grade: A++

2000: No pick
Grade: N/A

1999: Manu. Nuff said.
Grade: A++

I can't really think of a FO who has had this sort of success over such a long period. Most FO's manage to screw up alot more, without anything like the home runs we've seen from the Spurs. It's as close to flawless as you can reasonably expect from a team.

Great Asset Management
The Spurs operate within serious financial constraints, and yet they have produced this incredible 15 year run on a budget, almost never paying the luxury tax, and ensuring their small market team is extremely profitable.

With all the criticism big contracts get these days, you will rarely hear the spurs invoked, and that’s because the Spurs have almost never given out a bad contract. Manu’s first free agency with the Spurs he was paid $52 mill over 6 years. Ginobili’s most recent contract? $38.8 mill over 3 years. Tony Parker has received 2 very reasonable contracts from the Spurs so far; first for $66mill over 6 years, then for $50mill over 4 years. Bruce Bowen was only paid over $4mill per year once in his career, despite his DPOY hype, because the Spurs knew his value, and didn’t overpay. The Spurs know when not to pay big money too. They let Derek Anderson go rather than overpay, let Nazr go because they knew he was having a contract year, knew when to walk away from negotiations for PJ Brown (they went up to $8mill a year for 4 years, then walked away).

The Spurs have shown extraordinary judgement and negotiation skills. They made sure they had cap space for 2003 to try and get max players, and when that didn’t work out they didn’t throw the cap space away, making sure they had enough left to turn around and resign Manu the next year (remember, 2 year free agents back then didn’t provide any cap exceeding rights to teams). This is another instance of the Spurs really lucking out, since in retrospect a lot of free agents wish they’d gone there (something Kidd said publicly). Grabbing Robert Horry from the Lakers, then holding onto him after he played badly in the 04 playoffs, showed a lot of savvy. At the time, people asked why they didn’t pay to keep Hedo in the 04 offseason, but the Spurs knew the FA’s they needed. They would frequently find cheap and useful rotation players like Danny Green, or Udoka, or Devin Brown, or Oberto, or R.Mason, or Finley, or Elson, or Matt Bonner. Nobody loved most of these guys (or had heard of them) prior to the Spurs getting them on the cheap, and the Spurs kept them only as long as it was sensible, refusing to overpay to keep guys like Mason. They were good at talking vets like McDyess or B.Barry to come play for them too. Acquiring Diaw looks like pure genius now.

In 2013 the Spurs will have max space again probably, and we’ll see if they have more luck luring a big name over. For the most part though, the Spurs have shown a lot of flexibility and skill in managing their cap situation.

Great Team Culture
Not a lot to say here. The Spurs obviously have fostered a great team culture, of professionalism, pride and no-nonsense. How many times do you see the Spurs in the press for scandals or drama? You don’t. That all starts in the front office, this is a team who knows how to use guys, how to put them in situations that maximise their talent, and minimise their negatives. Guys like S.Jax or Glen Robinson come here, and seem to behave just fine. Rodman not working out? Move him. Strickland causing drama? Move him. The FO seemed to learn these lessons early on, and never repeated them. The FO has a good sense of when to acquire players, and when to drop them. I remember seeing an interview from Diogu earlier this year after they picked him up, and thinking “wow, what a terrible attitude.” The guy was cut shortly after. Coaching is a big part of that, and obviously the Spurs have shown a lot of savvy under the Poppovich regime, with a lot of adaptability, across a wide range of teams.

“Mistakes”
I do not mean to suggest the Spurs have always managed to optimise every situation, which would be unrealistic, but their FO has clearly done things they would change in retrospect. However there are mistakes attributed to them which are frankly misunderstood, and aren’t really mistakes at all.

Luis Scola
The decision to trade away Scola for a bucket of chips is often latched onto as a supposed screw-up on the Spurs part. This totally misunderstands the circumstances surrounding the decisions.

In 2002 when the Spurs drafted Scola, nobody had really heard of him. The Spurs front office was excited about what he could develop into, and left him overseas for a few years to improve, which he immediately did. Spurs fans remember how he punked JO on team USA, causing JO to retaliate with a classless move (stepping on Scola as he was lying on the court). Scola just smiled at how he’d played the frustrated Jermaine, and got right back up. Spurs fans were excited. The Front Office however realised what is better understood now; for all Scola’s strengths, the guy is a middling NBA player. Worse, he was poorly suited to our team. The guy was too short and unathletic to play the sort of defense required if he was going to play next to Duncan (this is similar to the sort of difficulty Blair is having, but worse), and his offensive game couldn’t mutually co-exist with Duncan’s. The Spurs get guys who will fit their system, and if you look at the sorts of players who have started next to Duncan (or played big minutes) you’ll see why Scola was going to be a bad fit, especially with mediocre D and rebounding. These problems were exacerbated by the fact that Scola needed relatively big money to come over here, in order to buy out his contract. We would have been paying him a good chunk of the MLE to come off the bench, and he would leave the team in 2 years for a place who would play him more.

The Spurs, realising this, tried to move him. Here is where the difficulty came in. Other teams didn’t recognise Scola’s value. They thought he was expensive trash. As the months, then years went by, the Spurs couldn’t find a good offer. Finally, the deadline came. Scola’s agent made it clear he had to make a career decision, either resign for a huge sum in Europe (all but forsaking the NBA), or come over. The Spurs had his rights, they had waited for years, they had to sign him or trade him, the agent said. It wasn’t fair to hold him hostage like this. The Spurs recognised goodwill from Europe is important, and took what they could get, which was unfortunately next to nothing. But no teams would offer more. Sure, they could have left him in Europe, but that would have netted them no return at all, at least they got something for him (saved some $ and got rights to De Colo), bought some goodwill, and made sure he went to a team which they wouldn’t regret. Drafting Mahinmi was a mistake. This was just bad circumstances.

And long term, this looks even better… Scola just got amnestied for nothing, because his $7 mill per year salary was too rich for the Rockets to desire keeping. The guy is a solid but flawed player, nothing special.

Trading for Richard Jefferson
Richard Jefferson did not pan out for the Spurs, that’s clearly true. In his defense, he improved his shooting a lot in his 2nd year with us, and was always a pro. On the other hand, what did the Spurs give up for him? Washed out Bowen (who retired right after), washed out Oberto (who retired right after), and Kurt Thomas, who was turning 37. Kurt used to be a very nice role player to have, but by the time we got him he was almost done (still ok for 15 minutes of vet ball), and by the time we traded him he was basically finished, doing nothing especially notable in his remaining 175 NBA games. So we gave up next to nothing for RJ. That’s a gamble, but it’s a low risk one.

We then convinced him to opt out of the last year of his huge contract, on the understanding we’d re-sign him for a longer (less lucrative) deal. This let us avoid the luxury tax, which was important. We then flipped RJ and the 30th pick in the coming draft for S.Jax, who has been a very good role player for us since we acquired him. I’m not really seeing the awfulness of this move. Yes, Jefferson sucked in the playoffs, but since we gave up nothing for him, it’s not like it hurt us. We’d probably have been in even worse shape in the playoffs without him.

Malik Rose
We gave Malik Rose big money because he was Tim Duncan’s best buddy, and we wanted Tim to resign in 2003. Getting Malik didn’t hurt our cap space (which ultimately didn’t net any max players anyway), and as soon as we were able we traded Malik for Nazr, robbing the Knicks blind. Malik had once been a decent role player for us, using his low centre of gravity to help negate Shaq’s weight advantage somewhat. By the time we traded him though, he was out of shape, and one of the worst bums in the NBA. Knicks fans hated him, while Nazr was an important role player, helping contribute to our 2005 title, before we wisely let him go in free agency (knowing once he got his contract, his play would drop off, as it did). The Spurs also gave up a draft pick, but bottom of the 1st round draft picks aren’t terribly valuable in and of themselves, and the fact the Knicks eventually used it to get stat padder David Lee doesn’t change the value of the asset itself, which was low, compared to Malik Rose’s sucky contract, which was very bad.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:29 pm
by jman2585
The Heat (Pat Riley)
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I realise Riley only technically took the title of GM in 2008, but in actuality Riley has been calling the shots for the Heat since 1995 when he agreed to come to Miami as their coach in exchange for an elaborate package, which included him getting a 10% ownership slice. At the time, Riley coming was both controversial and big news, especially when he resigned from the Knicks coaching job via fax. The Heat were accused of tampering by the Knicks, who claimed the Heat had spoken to Riley while he was under contract, and as a result the Heat had to give up a 1st round pick (which became Walt McCarty), and a cool million in cash.

The Heat came right out of the gate once Riley arrived. Previously the Heat had been something of an irrelevant franchise. They’d had 7 seasons to date, and only one winning one (a 42 win season in 1994). Nobody perceived Miami as a big market at the time, or a place which could easily attract free agents, and a big part of that was their lack of credibility. Riley changed all that. He inherited a roster that had just won 32 games, and had very few assets. Their 4 best players were Glen Rice, Steve Smith, Kevin Willis (age 32) and Billy Owens.

First Riley signed Bruce Bowen (in fairness he let him go later, because Bowen wanted to start), and underrated role player Voshon Lenard. Secondly he turned Glen Rice and a 1st rounder that became Tony Delk into Alonzo Mourning. Zo wanted more money, and Riley had gotten ownership to buy into it (he was part owner himself), trading for a guy who ended up getting paid a $105 million contract, $35 more than the Hornets then owner said he was willing to pay, though he claimed he went up to $78+ mill on his final offer (too late). He then turned Kevin Willis into Tim Hardaway mid-season, another great move. His trade of Owens looks pretty meh in terms of talent returned, but the money they saved by getting rid of Owens went towards the Heat’s free agency spending spree, where they added PJ Brown, Dan Majerle, and almost Juwan Howard (the NBA disallowed the signing in controversial circumstances, disagreeing about the CBA allowing it, but then had to waive the rules in order to let the Bullets resign Howard. As a result, the Wizards lost their 1st rounder in the 97 draft). Not every little move worked out, but the important ones sure did. In Riley’s 2nd season with the Heat they won 61 games, 19 games better than their previous best, and made the Conference finals (losing to the Bulls).

They continued to make moves to get better. First stealing Mashburn off the Mavs for Kurt Thomas, and winning 55 games that season, in spite of injuries to Zo, Mashburn and others. The Heat added savy vet Terry Porter in the 99 season, and finished as the best team in the East that season (but being upset by the Cindarella Knicks in the 1st round of the playoffs). They looked ready for contention again in 2000, winning 52 games before being upset in the playoffs. Then Zo got Kidney disease, something totally unforeseeable that ruined everything. This Heat team, if it had stayed healthy, would probably have made the NBA finals 4 years in a row (2000-03) until the champion Pistons came along. In the 99 season Zo was 28 years old, Hardaway was 32, PJ Brown was 29 and Mash was 26. Hardaway’s body also crapped out, and on the hope Zo would be better the Heat moved the oft-injured Mashburn and PJ Brown for Eddie Jones, to give them a healthier slasher to compliment Zo, and got Anthony Mason thrown in (who had become an awesome player). He also got the useful vet Gattling for Lenard, and then turned Gattling into Brian Grant, a great series of upgrades. The Heat would get Gattling back almost for free one year later in a trade (woo), then bought low in signing troubled crazy person Rod Strickland in free agency (who was probably the teams most valuable player in 2002. The season was bad, but they drafted Caron Butler in 2002, which was a good pick at #10.

In 2002 the Heat needed a serious re-evaluation. Zo was now clearly never going to be the same again, so the Heat were at a crossroads- win more now, or lose a little to win later. They let Strickland go, didn’t try to have Zo play hurt like in previous seasons, and didn’t try to add more talent to the team. Though they played Eddie Jones when he was healthy, the team employed a more traditional method of tanking. Don’t give the team a point guard. Without one the Heat had no offensive scheme, and floundered to 25 wins. The good news was it worked, and let them get D.Wade at #5 in the draft. Not adding talent also left them with cap space to spend in 2003, which they used to add Odom (plus 2 free agents nobody had really heard of at the time, in Haslem and Alston). Very good offseason indeed. They had to go through a 42 win season in 2004, but the young guys looked promising, and the team made the 2nd round. After that Miami was on Shaq’s “list” of teams to whom he would accept a trade (if he was traded to the wrong team, he’d have surgery and sit out the season, said his people), which shows you how far Riley had managed to change the image of the Heat since pre-95. Riley promptly steals Shaq from the Lakers, and the Heat become a contender, being stopped in 2005 by Wade’s untimely injury, and winning it all in 2006.

And through this Riley kept making sensible moves:
- Picking up Posey, J-Will and Walker for little (old man Jones basically, who came back 2 years later), but knowing not to get too attached to them
- Talking free agents like Haslem into resigning for less (twice)
- Signing serviceable bench players like Kapono, Doleac and Joel Anthony
Now he made mistakes of course. Jason Smith at #20 in the 1st round was a bust, Simien never worked out as a pick, trading for Ricky Davis wasn’t helpful (but he sent off the now equally cancerous Walker, and it helped him tank the 2008 season). It still forced him to eat Blount’s crappy contract, and he gave up a pick which (while not valuable in and of itself) became Ty Lawson. Yikes. He did get rid of Shaq before his value collapsed, but sadly Marion turned out to be pretty overvalued too, so it wasn’t a huge steal or anything.

The important thing Riley did after 2006 was quickly reassess the franchises direction. He (correctly) decided the team couldn’t win another title as constituted after the 2007 playoff disaster, though gave the team a chance to show they could “turn it on” first, and made the difficult decisions to move Shaq, and to tank the 2008 season. It didn’t work out as well as hoped, because Riley got stuck with the #2 pick (when he had desperately wanted Rose), and Beasley turned out a bust, but direction wise he was right in knowing the team needed to reload. And you can’t really complain about the 2010 offseason, or the acquisitions made after that. Basically, Riley has been a top 5 GM. Not in the Spurs tier, but very good, especially at creating the right culture, and giving the team the right image and credibility with players and agents. I don’t really feel like the stuff that Riley had done in recent years warrants much discussion- everyone knows what’s happened with the Heat, and it’s all very impressive stuff.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:31 pm
by jman2585
Lakers (Jerry West), 1982-2000
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I think Jerry West was a good GM, but at the same time I find him to be horribly overrated for several reasons, which I feel I should flag before I break down the moves he made.

Reason Jerry West is overrated #1- Even a mediocre GM could have acquired Shaq and Kobe
People often don’t understand the context involved in the acquisition of these two players, which greatly distort the results of both West and Mitch as GM’s.

Shaq was almost once in a lifetime in terms of his situation.
- The guy was obsessed with the Lakers. As a high school student he'd chosen his college based in part on the fact their colours were the same as the Lakers. His first book (Shaq Attack) detailed in depth his burning desire to go to the Lakers, including one section in which he discussed how his agent kept a section in his play book entitled "how to force a trade to the Lakers". I hasten to add that this book was released just after his rookie year, so he was giving the Lakers 3 years notice that he wanted to play for them. If this book had been released in the age of the internet by Lebron James, his reputation would never have recovered (which is why no player would be able to get away with doing something like this today). Interestingly he says a number of other astonishing things in the book, including effectively admitting (in so many words) that the NBA conspired with him to stage him "ripping down the basket" on the opening play against the Suns. Shaq was also incredibly spoilt and mature at the same time (a product of his curious upbringing as an army brat, in which he was initially cowed by authority figures and desperate for popularity (he had no real friends as a kid, because they moved from place to place), but pouted when he didn't get his way). Very few players like this will exist period. In today's workplace environment guys are told the hard realities of the draft from an early age, and that it will work against them if they ruin their public image. Even guys like Dwight were smart enough not to go public with their trade demands. The then Magic GM wrote how, given what Shaq wrote in his 1993 book, it was probably inevitable that he’d leave for the Lakers:
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=Ulo ... CEkQ6AEwBA
Heck, his agent spent weeks lobbying for the Magic to trade the #1 pick to the Lakers, and Shaq refused to meet with the Magic owners (who had said they’d take him) until 2 days before the Draft. He was incredibly cut he wasn’t going to LA.
- He also played in a time when the CBA let you create absurd contracts. Webber for instance signed a 14 year deal... with a 1 year opt out. To nobodies surprise Webber opted out after 1 year. Shaq had a long term deal with a 4 year opt out (no matching, no restrictions, nothing). In today's CBA he'd be stuck the 7-8 years all big names are stuck on teams they don't like (and would then have to give up money to leave like Lebron did, whereas Shaq made more money in his contract by going to LA. I know Pat Williams thinks the Magic would have offered more (had they been given a chance to match the LA offer, which was the biggest contract in history at the time so it could match Shaq’s ego, but if they’d offered more, the Lakers would have just done the same. We’re already talking about amounts Orlando were very unsure they could afford).

Kobe is even more unlikely to happen again, and was something any halfway competent GM would have pulled off. He went under the radar for most teams because high school scouting was rare at the time, and nobody could get any footage of him. He then refused to work out for almost every team (except big cities where he could get the exposure he wanted, I think from memory he worked out for the 76ers because they had the #1 pick, he'd been born in Philly, they had alot of history, and he liked the idea, and he also worked out in LA for both the Clippers and Lakers, though the Clippers would never have drafted him since he would have demanded big money, and they'd traded the #2 pick only a 1 year earlier rather than pay him). He threatened teams like the Hornets that if anyone but LA drafted him, he'd go overseas to play in Europe, which was perceived as a real threat because he'd played in Europe as a kid, and spoke Italian (the Hornets GM at the time, David Cowens, was so angry about Bryant that when he called him to tell him the news of the trade he told him "good, because we don't F#$@'ing need you". His agent did everything in his power to ensure he went to LA. In today's game this never happens because:
a) teams have such extensive high school scouting they'd have had an idea how good Kobe was, and
b) they'd have called his bluff and drafted him anyway, threats be damned. Kobe would have backed down eventually, and if it took a year in Europe to make him realise they were serious, they'd lose a year and still win easily (while he lost money each year he waited). Rubio's people tried the same thing with the Wolves, and the Wolves laughed and drafted him anyway. Teams don't fall for this stuff these days, if they like you they take you.

Reason 2 Jerry West is overrated- Showtime’s core existed before he was GM. He did very little to “build” Showtime

While West was mainly lucky to get Shaq and Kobe, he did nothing to get Magic, Kareem and Worthy. West’s first decision was to pick Worthy with the #1 pick in 1982, but the moves made to get Worthy (involving idiot owner Stepien) were all done before he got there (and everyone cheated Stepien anyway), and Worthy was a no-brainer pick at #1. After that, what did West do? He traded Norm Nixon for Byron Scott in 1983. That was a good, sensible trade, in trading a veteran while he still had value for a future contributor… but in the short term Scott was worse than Nixon, who was still productive for several more years with the Clippers. Nixon made the all-star team again in 1985, something Scott never did once. There was nothing special about this move, it’s pretty standard and sensible. An interesting sidenote is that viewed purely in terms of what he gave up West lost this trade, since he gave up a pick that turned into all-star Jeff Hornacek. I won’t judge West for that, because the pick was bad, and nobody knew Hornacek would be good, but it’s interesting to note. That’s basically the only notable move West made in the first 3 years of his tenure as GM.

What did he do next? He drafted AC Green in the 1st round in 1985, that was a good if unspectacular pick (the very next pick was Terry Porter, a much better player), but then other 1st round picks were squandered on bad players (he traded his 1986 1st round Ken Barlow into a nothing asset which is pretty bad since 3 of the next 4 picks were Sabonis, Mark Price and Rodman, then he drafted washout Earl Jones in 1984 who was out of the NBA in 2 seasons). I don’t judge West too harshly for not finding good players late in the 1st round, but if he was the super genius he’s claimed to be he didn’t really show it with most of his selections. Trading his 1987 1st rounder plus other role players for veteran M.Thompson also was a good, solid move. In 1988 he drafted David Rivers at #25. The guy was out of the NBA within 3 seasons. Leading into the 1989 draft (7 years into West’s tenure), and he hasn’t done anything special at all. This is what annoys me about the perception Jerry West was some super GM. He has the advantage of working in LA, the biggest richest club and market, and over 7 years this is all he can do?

1989 onwards- i.e How did West transition the Lakers to a post showtime era?
Obviously once the Lakers stopped winning titles, questions must have emerged about what the next steps would be. I’m not sure West really had a coherent plan about where to go next to be honest. Tactically, he made generally sound moves per usual, but there was no real direction until Shaq and Kobe forced their way there, and anybody half competent could have done that. He caught a bad break with Magic getting HIV obviously, nobody could have foreseen that, but I don’t think he was as good as the elite tier of GM’s during this period either (though there was a marked improvement in his drafting).

First West got Divac and Campbell in the 1989 and 1990 drafts, which were both very nice finds in the mid 20’s. He signed Sam Perkins, which was a good signing, and traded assets for some guys like Teagle and Sedale Threat, who were journeyman basically. He got rid of Perkins for Christie, which was a good move, except they nullified it by trading Doug Christie for nothing 2 seasons later. Benoit wasn’t significant, and got moved for end of his career Bowie anyway. That’s basically it up to 1993. West didn’t do anything really to transition the Lakers into contention post showtime, he just made some solid moves and as a result the Lakers collapsed. They won 43 games in 1992, and followed that up with 39 and 33 win efforts. You can’t say his plan was to get Kobe and Shaq back then, because a) nobody knew who Kobe was until 1996, and b) Shaq was still in college in 1992, and would obviously not be available immediately.

The side-effect of the Lakers suddenly being bad was that West got draft picks to work with, but he didn’t exactly light the world on fire with them.
1992- 15th pick on Anthony Peeler (passes on D.Christie, Spreewell, PJ Brown)
1993- 12th pick on George Lynch (passes on Cassell, and Ervin Johnson), gets Excel in the 2nd round though, which was a very nice pick up.
1994- 10th pick on Eddie Jones. Great pick, best available guy there.
1995- Trades the first rounder that becomes Finley for Ceballos. Sure looks bad in hindsight, but given it was just a first rounder it was a pretty good move. It wasn’t a draft day trade, so West had no way to know this would turn into Finley.

In 1996 they bring Magic back for one year to sell some tickets and let him get it out of his system. Magic retires, and we cue to the 1996 offseason already covered earlier.

After 1996 there still isn’t much in the way of brilliance, just solid GM’ing. They got Horry for Ceballos, which was very sensible. He got Derek Fisher in the first round in the 1996 draft, which again was very solid. Signed Rick Fox, drafted busts like Sam Jacobsen, traded Excel for peanuts, and gave away the pick that would have been Anthony Parker for nothing (the corpse of George McCloud). He added veterans here and there. Some worked out (Ron Harper), while others didn’t (Dennis Rodman). But there was nothing special about any of his moves. He sold remarkably low on Eddie Jones, who had real value at the time. Any time you send out a 27 year old all-star guard for a 31 year old shooter with a history of contract disputes, who would rather “get his” than win. I’m not even making this up, but Rice almost killed the deal to LA, because he didn’t like the idea of having to share his shots (http://basketbawful.blogspot.com.au/201 ... -rice.html). Amazing stuff. For anyone wondering, Rice was already rumoured to be having contract issues in Charlotte (he didn’t play a minute for Charlotte in the 99 season, but as soon as he was traded he suited up the very next game- basically he was holding out on the bench until he got an extension). It was no surprise this ended badly, they could have gotten a lot more for Eddie Jones (as the Heat went on to prove shortly afterwards).

All in all, I see a good to solid GM in West, who landed in a perfect situation, didn’t do a whole lot to improve that situation, then had a top 5 player all time force his way there in 1996, and a top 15 player do the same, both of which would have happened if any half decent GM was in charge. Basically West never did anything to suggest he was seeing ahead of the curve, or outthinking other teams, which is something you can definitely say about the top tier ones (like the Spurs front office, or Red, or Presti).

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:33 pm
by jman2585
Denver (Ujiri), 2010-present
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Ujiri is still quite a new GM, but his work so far deserves some credit. He came into a situation in which Melo was forcing his way off the Nuggets. Ujiri didn’t panic, and calmly evaluated the probability Melo would walk for nothing. He decided, rightly as it turned out, that Melo was not keen to risk signing his next contract under a new, less favourable CBA. He’d do it if he had to, but his preference was to be traded. Having come to this conclusion, Ujiri backed himself, and proceeded to get into some extremely tough negotiations with Donnie Walsh and the Knicks, refusing to budge until he had extracted enough concessions.

After months of negotiations, Ujiri had pried out a stack of assets to assist the Nuggets reload:
- Koufos, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Gallinari, Mozgov, two 2nd rounders, a 1st rounder, and cash.

Ujiri did very well for a team who many supposed had no leverage. He then began to flip these assets as necessary, and add more assets:
- He drafted Faried 22nd, which looks like a home run
- He turned Felton into Andre Miller, Jordan Hamilton and a 2nd rounder
- He got Corey Brewer and Rudy F off the Mavs for nothing (so the Mavs could fruitlessly try to save cap space).
- He flipped the oft-injured, highly paid, getting older Nene for the younger McGee and Turiaf
- He selected Fournier 20th in the 2012 draft (ok, so far I’m not a fan of this pick)
- Took a punt on Anthony Randolph (didn’t work out, but nothing lost)
- Turned Affalo, Harrington and a 2014 first into Iggy. Very nice upgrade.
- When faced with difficult problems, like Wilson Chandler going to China, he didn’t do anything stupid, and just hung onto him, then brought him back despite pressure to trade him.
Overall he’s done a good job finding guys coach Karl can work with, while keeping the team very competitive. They’re not a contender, but he’s done well with the material and market he had to work with (as well as assumedly the mandate from ownership to win now). Overall the guy deserves to be mentioned with the better GM’s in the NBA, and by all accounts he is a nice guy who has helped the culture there too. He also purged the locker room of players who had worn out their welcome, like JR Smith and Kenyon Martin.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:34 pm
by jman2585
Denver (Kikki), 2001-2006
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Kikki doesn’t get a lot of love around the NBA. He apparently was good at stepping on toes and annoying higher ups and players alike. I remember when he left, Marcus Camby said “I’m probably the only one whose going to miss him”, and the reason for that was because Kikki was a big part of making the Nuggets competitive again. When Kikki got to the Nuggets they were terrible and had no assets. The Nuggets had not had a winning season since 1994, 7 years earlier (and even then they won 42 games). That was the only winning season they’d seen in the past 11 years. To make matters worse, the Nuggets franchise player McDyess had made it clear he would leave in free agency as soon as possible.

Kikki came in and quickly realised the team needed to build through the draft. He started to divest the team of veterans, and put together a tank. In 2002 the team was actually still halfway respectable with 27 wins, and only got the 5th pick. Not to worry, Kikki’s mega tank in 2003 was coming.
- First, he made a draft day trade of McDyess for prime Marcus Camby, vet Mark Jackson, and the #8 pick in the draft (which he used to get Nene). McDyess was never the same, and Camby went on to win DPOY honours. Homerun from Kikki here.
- On the downside, his #5 pick in the 2002 draft was a huge bust.
In 2003 however Kikki assembled a mega-tank, fielding a team of NBDL’ers the likes of which had rarely been seen. I’m still amazed that team of nobodies and no hopers won 17 games. It’s a testament to their coach, who had them play with a lot of grit, as well as some of their players who gave it their all each night. 2003 gave Kikki the chance to finish his rebuild plan (in 2 short years).
- First he got Melo in the draft at #3, which was obviously great for the Nuggets
- Secondly he signed Andre Miller to a deal in free agency with the money he’d saved
- Thirdly he talked Camby into playing in the 2004 season. Camby was a guy who played pretty much his whole career in pain, and made it clear to Kikki when he got here he wasn’t going to play through injuries to be part of some kind of tank job. Kikki eventually won him over, explaining that this was a necessary step to winning in the future. In 2004 Camby came back and played with all his usual vigour. Camby was so impressed by Kikki in fact that he became one of his few fans on the team.
- Fourthly, he sign and traded for K-Mart with the rest of his cap space. On the one hand, he “overpaid” for Kmart. On the other hand, this was clearly his market value at the time, other teams would have paid it, and before his injuries Kmart would have basically been worth it to the Nuggets (who wouldn’t have signed anyone else good). Kikki didn’t even get a chance to bid on Boozer, who sewed up his back-stabby deal with Utah.
- He also signed Earl Boykins and V.Lenard as free agents, 2 underrated role players at the time.
- On the downside his trade of the 2004 1st rounder that would become Jameer for a pick that would become Julius Hodge was pretty dumb.
- He also found solid role player Linas K in the draft.
Overall his work with Denver was very solid. Under his vision the team went from perennial loser to a team who began a run of what is now 10 straight post-season appearances, and while other guys helped with that too, Kikki built the foundation that made it possible, and acquired the assets future GM’s would use to reload the team.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:34 pm
by jman2585
Kings (Petrie), 1994-present
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:Geoff Petrie- Sacramento Kings, 1994 offseason-Present

Petrie gets undersold as a GM a lot due to the Kings recent woes, however from 94 until quite recently he was one of the premier GM’s in the NBA. In addition, the recent suckage is at least partly caused by factors beyond his control, such as the Maloof’s going broke and being reluctant to spend money.

Let’s wind the clock back to 1995, when Petrie takes over the helm. The Kings were a small market team, they had an non-notable history, and were basically an irrelevant franchise. Their last winning season was back in 83, when they won a mere 45 games. The last time they won 50 games was back in 64. The team had basically no assets worth a damn when Petrie arrived, in 1997 their best players were Mitch Richmond (then 31 years old), washed up 32 year old Olden Polynice and Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, a guy better known for refusing to sing the national anthem (who lasted another 71 games in the NBA after 97). So in terms of starting with a blank slate, this is as close as Petrie could get, it just looked awful.

Enter Petrie, who begins the turnaround immediately.

Move 1- get a Robin
He drafts this Peja guy who nobody had even heard of, knowing he’ll have to wait years for him to arrive. Getting a guy who peaked as an MVP candidate and was a vital cog on a championship team with the 14th pick of the draft is awesome. He then later re-signs Peja for piddling money. Home run.

Move 2- get a Star
He flips finished Hurley into Otis Thorpe. He then turns around Otis and washed up Mitch for Chris Webber, who he then convinced to re-sign, despite his avowed hatred of being brought to the Kings in the first place. Home run.

Move 3- address point guard spot
He drafts Jason Williams, lets him increase fan interest with his (former) fast paced, hectic style of play, builds up his value, and then trades him for a better and more stable (but less flashy) point guard in Bibby.

Move 4- add size depth
Signs Divac for reasonable money, then signs Corliss for the same.

Move 5- add a 6th man
Drafts Turkoglu with a nothing pick, then signs Bobby Jackson (who nobody really rated at all), watched them both become fantastic players for him. Home run.

Move 6- get a defensive swingman to start
Turns the now defunct Corliss into the underrated Doug Christie. Also drafts Gerald Wallace at pick 25. Home run.

The Kings are now a contender.

But the guy wasn’t done, he kept making good moves. He drafted Kevin Martin at the back of the 1st round, turned Pollard and Turk into the underrated Brad Miller (who ripped it up in his first year for the Kings), gets Keon Clark off the Raptors, swaps a washed out Ostertag and Bobby J into Bonzi Wells, who he keeps long enough to get results out of (but refuses to overpay). He flips a fading and hurt Peja for a still peak Ron Artest, and got rid of Webber as soon as he could (once the extent of his injuries became clear), really screwing the 76ers in the process. The guy just hit home run after home run for a while.

In recent years of course he hasn’t done as well, and there were obviously mistakes along the way. I mean, drafting Tariq Abdul-Wahad?! WTF was he thinking. That wasn’t a deep draft, so he didn’t miss out on much, but it was still bad. Tyreke Evans looks dubious as a player, but Cousins and I.Thomas look like genius, and Jimmy F was basically forced on him by ownership from the sounds of it. The team should have rebuilt sooner, and Petrie has made some mediocre (or bad) picks in recent years too (Hawes? Jason Thompson? Meh), and his free agent signings in recent year are pretty average. Letting Adelman go looks bad, I’m really hoping that was a decision of ownership because he was too pricey. He’ll certainly command a lot of money next time he’s available. Overall though, you have to recognize the great effort he made early, with really very limited resources or natural advantages.


Another take on Petrie (from 2010) is here:

viewtopic.php?p=22681767
KF10 wrote:Geoff Petrie's Resume:

*Longest Tenured General Manager in the NBA*

The Good:

-Selected Corliss Williamson (#13).
-Selected Peja Stojakovic (#14). A lot of people criticized the pick and balked at Petrie passing up John Wallace.
-Selected Jason Williams (#7).
-Selected Hedo Turkoglu (#13)
-Selected Gerald Wallace (#25)
-Selected Kevin Martin (#26)
-Selected Francisco Garcia (#23)
-Selected Spencer Hawes (#10)
-Selected Jason Thompson (#12)
-Selected Tyreke Evans (#4)
-Selected Omri Casspi (#23)
-Traded the draft rights to forward Jeff Pendergraph (#30) to the Portland Trail Blazers for guard Sergio Rodriguez, the draft rights to forward Jon Brockman and cash.
-Traded Mitch Richmond and Otis Thorpe to the Washington Wizards for Chris Webber
-Signed Vlade Divac via FA
-Fired head coach Eddie Jordan
-Hired Rick Adelman
-Signed Jon Barry (Mr. 4th Quarter for the early Kings)
-Signed Scott Pollard (Solid defensive presence at his peak)
-Signed Bobby Jackson.
- Traded Corliss Williamson to the Toronto Raptors for Doug Christie.
-Resigned Peja.
-Resigned Adelman (extension).
- Traded Jason Williams and Brent Price to the Memphis Grizzlies for Mike Bibby and Nick Anderson.
-Resigned Christie on a cheap contract.
-Resigned Webber.
-Resigned Bibby.
-Traded Scot Pollard to the Indiana Pacers and forward Hedo Turkoglu to the San Antonio Spurs for Brad Miller from the Indiana Pacers.
- Traded Doug Christie to the Orlando Magic for Cuttino Mobley. (Christie had nothing in the tank at that point).
-Traded guard Bobby Jackson and Greg Ostertag to the Memphis Grizzlies
for Bonzi Wells (At that point, Jackson was too injury-prone and lost a step due to age/Wells played a HUGE part for our last PO run in 2006).
- Traded forward Peja Stojakovic to the Indiana Pacers for Ron Artest.
-Signed John Salmons on a "bargain" contract.
-Signed Kevin Martin on a "bargain" contract.
-Traded Sean Singletary and Ron Artest and Patrick Ewing Jr. to the Houston Rockets for Bobby Jackson, Donte Greene, a future first-round pick (Omri Casspi) and other considerations (cash/2nd rounder?).
-Traded Kevin Martin and Hilton Armstrong to the Houston Rockets for Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey; traded Sergio Rodriguez to the New York Knicks (Created MAX capspace).
for Larry Hughes; traded a future second-round pick and cash to the Washington Wizards for Dominic McGuire
-Hired Paul Westphal (The best coach we had since Rick Adelman).
-Waived forward Kenny Thomas.

The Meh:

-Traded Keon Clark and two future second-round picks to the Utah Jazz in for a future second-round draft pick. (To this date, Keon was our last best defensive "big" we had/Purely for capspace/Avoiding Luxury Tax).
-Traded Brian Skinner to the Portland Trail Blazers for Sergey Monya from the Portland Trail Blazers and Vitaly Potapenko from the Seattle SuperSonics. (Skinner was our 2nd best defensive big we had in the last decade/Purely for capspace/Avoiding Luxury Tax?).
- Signed Shareef Abdur-Rahim. (We thought he can be our next huge low scoring threat but injuries finally got to him).
- Named Eric Musselman head coach. (He wasn't THAT bad, we had a .500 record before January but everything went downhill January and beyond).
-Named Reggie Theus head coach (Again, he wasn't THAT bad in his first year. Put a hard-working, all out hustle, scrappy team in his first year. Won *overachieved* 38 games in a historical Western Conference...50 wins was the bare minimum to qualify for the PO that year....2nd year: Theus worn off every player. Lost respect from players).
-Traded Mike Bibby to Atlanta for Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue, Shelden Williams and Lorenzen Wright and a second-round pick. (Financial Purposes).
- Re-Signed Beno Udrih to FULL MLE. (Overpaid but very productive).
-Re-Signed Francisco Garcia to FULL MLE (Overpaid but solid role player).
-Traded John Salmons and Brad Miller to the Chicago Bulls for Drew Gooden, Andres Nocioni, Cedric Simmons and Michael Ruffin; traded Michael Ruffin to the Portland Trail Blazers for forward Ike Diogu. (Financial Purposes...Even though, Nocioni's contract is pretty long).

The Bad:

-Exposed Gerald Wallace to expansion draft. (In retrospect, that was bad. Even though, it was noted that Wallace was notoriously a slacker with us. Had potential for sure but at the time, we were contending for titles. Regardless, it's still bad IMO).
-Traded Chris Webber, Michael Bradley and Matt Barnes to the Philadelphia 76ers for Kenny Thomas, Corsliss Williamson and Brian Skinner.
-Offered Bonzi Wells a 5 year/$37 million contract. (Coming off from an epic PO perfomance...Wells averaged 23/12 against Duncan's Spurs...Petrie offered the contact to Wells but luckily Wells rejected it).
-Selected Quincy Douby (#19). (A rare draft blunder by Petrie. Douby was a bust with the Kings. Skipped over Rajon Rondo).
-Fired Rick Adelman. (Even though, it seemed he ran out his time in Sacramento, Adelman was the most successful coach in the Kings franchise history).
-FULL MLE to Mikki Moore for 3 years. (Even though, Moore's contract was partially un-guaranteed in his final year(s), this was an awful move by Petrie).


...........

There is probably a few I missed but I'm pretty sure I hit most of them. Petrie is one of the best scouting/draft minds in the NBA (Top 5? Top 3?). A decent/solid negotiator in general.

Petrie has fallen from being the best GM in the NBA in his peak years (early 00s-mid 00s) to a top 10-ish GM. Still a very damn good GM. I think most teams would kill for a caliber of a GM like him.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:35 pm
by jman2585
Memphis (Jerry West), 2002-2007
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I’ve covered Jerry West’s Lakers tenure elsewhere, but his work with the Grizzlies again doesn’t hold up to the genius rep he’s granted. Some people erroneously attribute West with the franchise turning around and finally making the playoffs, but in reality all those pieces were in place and about to make the playoffs anyway. The only thing West really did was hire a few decent coaches, and make some solid-ish moves (and some bad ones too, which almost cancel themselves out). Here’s a list of the notable moves Jerry made while GM of the Grizzlies:
- Selected Drew Gooden with the #4 pick of the 2002 draft. Terrible move. Gooden sucked, and he passed on Amare, Nene and Caron Butler to get this guy. No insight at all on this move.
- Got Giricek who was a so-so role player sometimes. Nothing special.
- Signed Earl Watson- solid move, acquiring a back-up point guard.
- Turned Nick Anderson into W.Person. Nothing notable here.
- To try and redeem his earlier mistakes, he traded Gooden & Giricek for Mike Miller (and a 1st rounder he’d later blow). This was a good recovery, but it doesn’t change the fact the initial move was pretty awful.
- West had the 13th pick and the 27th pick in the 2003 draft. He traded them for Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones. He crapped the bed on that one. Other first round picks included David West, Luke Ridnour, Boris Diaw, Barbosa, Josh Howard, Zaza, Mo.Will, Korver, Steve Blake, Willie Green, etc. Guys who at least had solid role player careers (or much better in the case of some of the guys I named who were all-stars). He gave the Celtics Kendrick Perkins at #27, a guy the Spurs had desperately wanted with the very next pick. And he got 2 junk players for them. Awful.
- He signed James Posey for the MLE, which was very smart.
- He got headcase Bonzi Wells for a 1st rounder and change. Also a good move.
- Drafted Warrick with their 1st rounder, at #19 there were definitely better guys available. Solid-ish I guess, but again the genius of this man’s record is lost on me.
- He gave up cash and two 2nd rounders for Lawrence Roberts, who was a dud. I don’t hold it against him, but one of those 2nd rounders became Carl Landry.
- Traded J-Will and Posey for Eddie Jones, which was a good move all in all (Jones was pretty old at this point though)
- He then got rid of headcase Wells for a worn out Bobby J and more worn out Ostertag (who retired immediately). Meh.
- Signed a used up Damon Stoudemire and Chucky Atkins to help fill the void he’d created by shipping off J.Will for (another) wing man. Meh.
- Drafted Lowry, but the Grizz shipped him off before he got good (though West was not GM anymore, so even though he was “advising” I guess he was gone by then).
- Lastly he traded Battier for Rudy Gay and S.Swift, signalling the rebuild. I guess this was forced on him by ownership, and was why he left, but West sure didn’t do a good job advising the owner on how to rebuild given the way it went down (and they’d spent a bunch of assets doing the exact opposite the last few years which didn’t help).

I look at that list and there are some genuinely awful moves, some solid to good ones, and nothing special. I have no idea why people praise West as a genius GM, if we replaced his name with Ed Stefanski or Colangelo, everyone would be grilling Stefanski for his performance.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:35 pm
by jman2585
Rockets (Morey), 2007-present
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I have seen a lot of diverse views about Daryl Morey, who seems to quickly be becoming one of the most overrated GM’s in basketball. Morey is a decent enough GM, with his pros and cons, but the claim he is “the best” GM, or that other teams should emulate him (as opposed to the Spurs model, which Sam Presti brought to OKC, and which is now happening in some of the Spurs front office outposts in places like New Orleans or Orlando) is really not sensible. What I’m going to provide is a breakdown or Morey’s career as a GM thus far, identify his strengths and weaknesses, and then consider “Moreyball” as against other options for building a team (particularly the Spurs model).

The early days
Morey came to the Rockets in 2007, GM of a team who was already a contender. They’d won 52 games, and they’d done it with injuries to Ming and T-Mac (who played 48 and 71 games respectively). Sure, they’d lost in 7 games in round 1, but given the injuries that was hardly surprising, and the team was in a good place. Ming and T-Mac had some solid guys around them; a young Battier, young and solid-ish players like Chuck Hayes and Luther Head, and some vets who were still able to chip in useful minutes like Juwan Howard and Mutumbo. Morey did a decent job trying to help put this team over the top by adding better role players.

Let’s look at some of Morey’s yr 1 moves:
- Trades Juwan Howard for Mike James. Sensible enough, Alston had issues at the point, and James and he in theory covered each other’s weaknesses.
- Traded cash for Landry. Good move, and a good contrast PF to Scola.
- Drafted Brooks at 26th. Solid pick, but nothing special.
- He obtained Scola, sensible but not special. The Spurs were basically giving the guy away (because his contract circumstances had come to a head), and nobody else would bid anything. In addition, Scola isn’t that good (as people have figured out since he was amnestied and started putting up empty numbers on the Suns), and Morey went on to overpay him.
- Hired Adelman, which was a great move, but then fired him years later for no reason, which undermines any insight he showed by hiring him.
- Ownership forced him to bring back Steve Francis to sell tickets, but I won’t blame Morey on that.
- He then traded Bonzi Wells and Mike James for Bobby Jackson. Good back up point, but he was as hurt as Bonzi, so they lost James for nothing basically.

The team result (55 wins and a 1st round exit) was basically no better than what they could already do. Solid so far, nothing special.

Morey’s 2nd year moves:
- Traded Batum for Dorsey and Donte Green. Well this looks pretty awful.
- Signed Brent Barry- good, sensible move.
- He then traded Donte Green, Bobby J and a 1st (who would become Casspi) for Artest. This was a good risk to take, because Artest was significantly more talented. But he then mishandled negotiations with Artest and lost him for nothing (not good).
- Ends the Steve Franchise experiment (thank god).
- Traded Alston for Lowry (v.good move).

Unfortunately for Morey the team finally succumbs to injuries, T-Mac especially was washed out, and Ming gets told in the playoffs (when they pushed the would-be champs to 7 games) that his injury is career threatening. Morey pretty clearly mishandled the T-Mac situation, and while he later salvaged some kind of value out of him, he could have gotten a lot more if he’d traded him as soon as the Rockets realised his athleticism was shot (in training camp). It’s not like other teams would have known, just as long as the guy passes his physical. Once he got news about Ming though, it was clear the team should rebuild. Instead of doing that he kept trying to win now, putting the team on a treadmill for 3 years. I find it hard to see what they got out of that decision. Presti rebuilt and spent 2 years in the lotto, then was a 50 win team, then a contender. That’s not a realistic timeframe in most situations, but other teams show you can usually become a playoff team again in about 3 years in the lotto with good management, then a contender shortly after. That’s what the Cavs and Pelicans are doing right now (the Cavs should be in the playoffs next year, then move towards contention 1-2 years after that), and I’d be surprised if the Pelicans weren’t contenders in 2-3 years. More on this later.

With all the assets Morey had, you’d expect he could get more picks and youth and rebuild faster. Yet he hung on to what vets he could, and tried to “win now”. He signed Ariza, and then bungled keeping Artest (because of very poor negotiations), actually losing him to a team who could offer less money. It wasn’t like Artest’s agent didn’t try to work a sign and trade or something out, Morey just refused to take back salary, and eventually they gave up and he just signed with the Lakers. This was dumb, because Artest had a lot of value still at the time. He made many “win now” moves over the next few years, many of which were just unconstructive to rebuilding the team- signing Dally and B.Miller for instance. He also made a number of just bad moves:
- Trading Ariza for Lee, and then turning around and losing Lee for nothing.
- Trading a future 1st for Terrence Williams
- Drafting Pat Patterson? Crappy player. If he didn’t like the draft, trade the pick.
- Gets Dragic for Brooks, but then loses Dragic for nothing.
- Loses Lowry as well, and while it netted a useful asset in return, it was not an asset that was perceived to have much value at the time (the Raptors weren’t thought to be so terrible, and they’ve kind of created the perfect storm of being terrible, but not terrible enough to keep the pick). If they hadn’t allowed a situation to develop in the locker room in which Lowry basically mutinied, they could have gotten more back for him.
- Traded Battier for Thambeet and a future pick. Battier had real value at the time, this was not an optimal use of assets.
The guy also fired Adelman for not winning enough, hiring McHale (a coach who clashed with many of the players, and who the personnel didn’t fit) which showed a really poor ability to gauge the talent of the roster he’d given Adelman to work with.

Getting Harden & Recent History
The recent acquisitions of Morey, from the most recent offseason have been better.
- Getting Asik- good
- Getting Lin- good (even if only from a marketing standpoint)
- Getting Harden, obviously very good.
- Getting T.Rob, well worth it
- Getting rid of Morris, a solid gamble
- His draft picks all look interesting too
So recently Morey has been doing well, but over the course of his GM’ing career he doesn’t exactly light the world on fire. The problems I would identify with Morey are:
a) Good at making lots of little trades that (mostly) have a good tactical payoff, but not so great at planning the overall strategy of the team (see sections below on this).
b) So-so on draft picks.
c) Neutral at assessing coaches. He can make an obvious decision when it’s obvious, and make a bad one when it’s less obvious.

”Moreyball”?
Another thread I read defined Moreyball as
- make sure you're not locked into deals with aging / expensive / injury prone vets who aren't blue chip stars
- maintain enough financial flexibility so you are in the game to acquire available superstars
- keep cycling in inexpensive rookies / 1st round picks stashed to use as trade bait
- acting as trade-deadline parasites by picking up above assets from desperate franchises
- using a statistical approach to player evaluation, don't fall in love with your roster

I’m not sure that’s really a satisfactory explanation for what we’ve seen from Morey though. One thing Morey has refused to do is tank, and one wonders what the logic of that is given if he didn’t get Harden his team would still be on a treadmill. Don’t get me wrong, it’s good he got Harden, but the circumstance of Harden being available is extremely rare. The only reason he was available was:
- A very good GM had drafted so many good players, there was no money to pay Harden (who came off the bench, because his previous team was so good), and
- The owner of said team had a finite budget
That sort of circumstance is extremely rare, and I think it’s silly to think you can plan for it (or that Morey was “planning” for it). There’s also only one Harden, only one team can get him, so every other team who plans this way gets nothing. Before that Morey wanted Gasol, and one has to ask just how it would have looked if the Rockets would have gotten Gasol. Sure, I like Gasol (I can believe he’d have turned the Rockets into a 1st round playoff team out West in the short term), but at the same time it would have basically ruled out the chance the Rockets now have of getting Dwight and being a contender, and in a few years when Gasol was too far gone to carry the team (to maybe a 1st round exit) where would Morey have been left? There’s a lot of Hubris in Morey’s “planning”, and looking above I think it should be obvious he often doesn’t get good return on assets, and squanders them quite badly (of course he does better than most GM’s). Without Dwight, the Rockets have no easy path to contention, and even if the Rockets luck into him they are still not quite contenders (though they’d be a top 4-6 team). I should explain, I basically define a contender as a team who only needs to get lucky once to win a title.

Read my material on “The Pacer Model” recently spruiked and it’s pretty apparent building through the draft is a lot more sensible.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:36 pm
by jman2585
Pacers (Walsh), 1986-2003
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:Donnie Walsh, Pacers (1986-2003)

Walsh was an excellent GM. With that said, he made many mistakes, and seemed to be more average than he was exceptional. Most importantly, I think 2 traits hold him back; 1) he had a tendency to swing for the rafters which often didn’t pay off, and 2) he lacked strategic thinking.

Walsh came into Indy when it had been a perpetual loser, and he drafted some great players like Reggie Miller, Rik Smits and Chuck Person. He also drafted some horrible players like George McCloud & Jon Bender. Smits and Person were actually pretty average picks for where they were drafted, and he didn’t maximise value in moving players at times (Person and Tisdale for instance could have yielded a much better return).

Moving forward to 1990, when the Pacers were a 42 win team. They’d finally broken the drought of losing seasons, and things looked promising. But the next 3 seasons they won 41, 40 and 41 games again, and overall Walsh struggled to get them to the next level (or to stay there). Over the next 20 or so years they were a contender for maybe 3 seasons (in 99, 2000 and 2004, and I think the first 2 of those are especially dubious). I don’t think that’s a particularly great outcome for a team who had quite a few good assets in place, and didn’t utilise them especially well to construct a contender. Trades like Detlef Schrempf for McKey for instance were just awful.

I think maybe the best example of Donnie lacking strategic direction can be seen in his decision to “reload” the Pacers from 99-01. The team made the finals in 2000, and got crushed by a Lakers team who wasn’t even healthy, and even before that happened Walsh decided they needed to get younger. The problem was Walsh didn’t seem to be able to decide what to do; would he rebuild/reload, or put all his chips on the table and try for a title. This dialectic, bipolar mindset was like watching a carriage with a horse on either side, pulling in opposite directions. He’d trade the Davis twins for young players, then turn around and trade a young player like Dampier for old man Mullin to try and get over the top. The guy didn’t seem to be able to pick one direction and stick to it, he wanted to have his cake and eat it too, and the end result was pretty poor; the team who had made the finals in 2000, drop to 500 ball the next 2 seasons, jump up to 48 wins, then 61 wins as a contender, then back to 500 type ball for 2 more seasons, miss the playoffs for the next 4 years. Given all the assets the Pacers had, I’d have expected a much better outcome, brawl or no brawl. I realise Walsh left in 2003, but his handling of the “reload” was what set the Pacers off on that road.

Focusing on his moves in that rebuild, they’re decidedly average. A mixture of home runs and epic fails:

Bad
1) Wants to go young, so trades A.Davis for Jon Bender. Good intentions, terrible outcome.
2) Re-signs Croshere to an overly rich contract.
3) Re-signs Jalen Rose to a max contract.
4) Drafts Fred Jones.
5) Extended Bender.

Neutral
1) Trades Jalen for B.Miller, Artest and Mercer. This started off as a great move. Mercer left right off though (and was a stat padder), Brad Miller was let go as a free agent a little over a year later, and Artest, while awesome for a while, went crazy and was traded for a partial Peja season (so almost nothing). Jalen Rose had good value when he was moved, and in swinging for the fences Walsh didn’t end up with the best return. Nor were Artest’s emotional problems a secret, they’d been well documented in Chicago.
2) Extended Foster.
3) Got Harrington. Lost him shortly after.
4) Hired Isiah. But then got rid of him, so it balances out.
5) Gave JO a max extension.

Good
1) Moves Dale Davis for Jermaine O’Neal. Great move (injuries later soured it a little).
2) Extended Artest.

The conclusion? Walsh is a decent GM who gives you pretty middling outcomes.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:37 pm
by jman2585
Pistons (Dumars), 2000-present
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:Joe Dumars- Detroit Pistons (2000-present)
The story of Joe Dumars the Exec, now stretching over 12 years, is a long and complex one which is best divided into 3 periods; hero, mediocrity and villain. By looking at that context, we can best see where Joe is likely to go in the future.

Joe Dumars the Hero
Joe Dumars arrived in 2000 in a pretty grim situation. The Heat had just won 42 games and had been swept in the first round, mega-star Grant Hill had decided to leave, and the team didn’t have a whole lot else to build around. Joe made a series of moves that changed all that.

Firstly, he got the Magic to compensate him for taking Grant Hill with Ben Wallace. In retrospect Ben Wallace would go on to be a franchise player and 4 time DPOY, while Grant Hill would never fully recover from his injuries (due to the doctor botching the operation). Great move.

Joe followed this up with a lot of little trades in 2000, trying to find the right balance of role players, trying to keep track of it all isn’t easy, but none of them is especially significant. He traded for Ceballos, then traded him away months later, he sign Joe Smith, who left that offseason, he brought over bit players like Dana Barros… the guy just kept tinkering, trying to get the formula right. One of the more successful moves was to get Corliss Williamson for virtually nothing. Corliss would go on to be 6th man of the year for the Pistons in his 2nd year, and was a great add.

From 2000 through to the 2002 draft Joe had done some very good things, but if there was one fault he showed during this time (and one which would become obvious in future years) it was that he was a pretty mediocre drafter. It was fair enough that he got a dud in the 2000 draft with Cleaves, most teams got duded that draft (it was the worst draft of all time for talent), but selecting Rodney White in the 2001 draft was a huge mistake, the very next pick was Joe Johnson, and he passed on Richard Jefferson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker… heck, even guys like Troy Murphy, Haywood, Radmanovic, etc, would have been vastly better choices that a guy who was out of the NBA before his rookie contract was up. It was in 2001 that he gave away the Pistons 2005 pick for no good reason as well. He got Okur in the 2nd round in 2001 of course, but Joe basically lucked out. If Joe really knew how good Okur was going to be, he wouldn’t have signed him to a 2 year contract (which under the CBA at the time, meant he was certain to leave the Pistons, which he duly did). More on this later.

Coming into the 2002 offseason Joe had taken a team who looked to be in rebuilding mode when he arrived, to a 50 win season 2 years later. Now in fairness, the East was pitiful in 2002, so the Pistons talent wasn’t reflected accurately in that 50 win record (they were 12-16 v.s Western Conference teams), but there was no doubting things were going great. In the 2002 draft Joe made one of his best draft picks, taking Prince late in the 1st round. A great move. He also signed Billups for the MLE, partly by promising him the starting job, an even bigger home run, as Billups was grossly undervalued and would become a huge star. He then traded Stackhouse for Rip, another huge home run. Things were looking great for the Pistons, who romped to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2003. Management forced Joe to fire the Coach of the Year (Rick Carlisle), but Joe managed to hire an even better coach (a still hungry Larry Brown), who helped Billups improve as a player a lot.

In 2003-4 Joe had both his masterstroke and his biggest cock up. Joe used the old boys network to get Rasheed Wallace for virtually nothing, as he’d worn his welcome out on the Blazers, a move that allowed the Pistons to win a title. However he also used the #2 pick in one of the most top heavy drafts of all time to draft Darko, who would go on to be a huge bust. Worse still, Joe let Larry Brown destroy Darko’s confidence, and eroded his trade value to nothing. This was pretty short sighted asset management. However as the Pistons won the title fans didn’t mind, and Joe was hailed as one of the best GM’s in the game. People saw his home runs, getting Rip, Sheed, Ben, Billups for almost nothing, and thought “this guy is magic”.

Unfortunately, Joe believed it…

Joe Dumars living off his past deeds

At the press conference, after winning the 2004 title, Joe spoke to the media. He talked about team work, about how playing as a unit beats star power like the Lakers, he talked about how before getting Sheed he felt they were “one piece away”, and how he had “felt like it was my responsibility to get that final piece”. It was a great story, the sort fans and the media love to hear. Unfortunately it wasn’t true. Joe remembered his own playing days, where the bad boys had won two titles against the razzle dazzle of big names, and he saw the confirmation of that strategy in the 2004 Pistons. Unfortunately Joe had misunderstood both the history of the bad boys, and the nature of the 2004 Pistons.

The Bad Boys didn’t have Magic or Bird or Jordan, but what they did have was a team with astounding depth. This was a team who had 2 all-star calibre players coming off the bench (Dennis Rodman and Vinnie Johnson). They had an all-star talent big man who could shoot from outside (Laimbeer), 2 of the best guards in the NBA in their starting backcourt (Isiah and Joe D), a former MVP candidate/all-star in his prime (Dantley/Aguirre), and a host of awesome defensive players like Mahorn the wall, and Salley the Spider. And some of these guys weren’t simply all-stars, they were all-nba type players who sometimes got MVP votes. Rodman had MVP votes 4 separate years, ranking as high as 10th place (and this guy was coming off their bench!). Dantley had been 7th in the voting. In addition, while those Pistons teams were awesome, they won their two titles due to circumstances as well. The Celtics and Lakers were getting old and hobbled by injuries, and Jordan didn’t yet have the talent around him to win a title (and as soon as he did, the Pistons title window closed for good). If those Pistons teams had been playing from 1983-86 or from 1991-93, they would have had zero titles. But Joe didn’t understand this reality.

He made the same mistake when he looked at the 2004 Pistons. He saw a team of hard workers who had won a David v.s Goliath struggle. In reality, people had simply underrated the Pistons prior to 2004. Sheed had a bad rep, Ben had been misused as a small forward before he came to the Pistons, and had to prove himself before his critics took him seriously as a 5. Billups had been written off as a bust years earlier, and Rip had been discarded by the greatest player of all-time. In reality though, the Pistons had a huge amount of talent. The Pistons had Billups (5th and 6th in the MVP vote, 3 all-NBA teams, etc, despite blossoming late in his career), Ben Wallace (top 10 MVP vote 3 times, 5 All-NBA teams, 4 time DPOY... this guy was clearly a franchise value player in his prime), and Sheed (a franchise talent who didn't apply himself consistently, he was the best player on a team who was 1 decent quarter away from beating the 2000 Lakers and winning a title). Then they had another all-star (Rip), a way above average starter (Prince)... when you have 5 guys like that starting, it doesn't matter if you've got an MVP. The Lakers had a prime Shaq who was not in his peak anymore, a washed out Gary Payton, a beat up and nearly finished Karl Malone, and Kobe Bryant playing some of the most disgustingly selfish finals ball ever seen. In retrospect it’s not a big surprise the Lakers lost.

This misunderstanding of the Pistons is important, because it is at the root of Joe’s subsequent failings. I posted about it on another thread:
I could get struck by lightning when I leave today as well, but I'd never rely on it.

It's also much harder to build a team this way. If my GM sets out with the goal of building a team in the mold of the 2004 Pistons, he should be fired, because he is basically relying on incredibly unlikely and longshot things to happen. Just look at the stuff that happened for that to pan out ok (for one year):
* Nobody uses Ben Wallace properly, or realises that he's be a star at C instead of SF, and he's then given away by the Magic as a throw in (after the Wizards gave him away so they could get Ike Freaking Austin).
* Rasheed Wallace is traded for nothing to the Pistons, finds himself in Detroit and overcomes most of his personal issues (on the court anyway)
* The GOAT attempts an ill-advised comeback on the Wizard, and playing the GM, he decides to trade Rip for Stackhouse, because he doesn't feel Rip compliments him as well, and isn't a vet yet.
* A future top 5-6 MVP candidate and elite PG is horribly mis-used by the team that drafted him with their idiot College coach, bounces around for a few years, finds himself on the Wolves and lights it up in the end of the season and playoffs, but the Wolves refuse to re-sign him because McHale is an idiot, and because they already have a PG (who would never play again). As a consequence, you get him on the cheap.
* You then draft the perfect compliment to these guys with a mid first rounder.

Yeh, that'll happen twice.


I think the downside of the Pistons fantastic achievement in 2004 was it gave Joe the idea that he could build a team around 5 really good guys instead of 1 star, and historically that’s been nearly impossible to do (especially since 3 of his guys weren’t just “really good”, but were borderline franchise players, and those don’t grow on trees). It didn’t cause a problem right away, but the seed was planted.

After 2004 of course the Pistons still had great teams. Joe should be commended for building a culture of hard work and professionalism, for being able to more or less keep Sheed happy, and for dealing with Larry Brown’s love obsession with moving teams by replacing him with a coach who was able to make the Pistons play together even better (in the regular season anyway). When you make the conference finals 6 years running, you’ve obviously done something right. Joe also made other good decisions during this period; he didn’t match Ben Wallace’s oversized contract (Ben was on the verge of breaking down as a player, so this was a great move), he traded Darko before his value totally collapsed, he signed surprisingly good vet McDyess. On the downside, he traded Corliss Williamson (who still had something left in the tank) for Derrick Coleman, who basically didn’t play for the Pistons at all. Looks pretty bad in hindsight.

Joe continued to treat draft picks pretty badly as well. He traded away a first rounder so he could get Arroyo, then a year later he ships Arroyo off. Sure, that wasn’t a very good 1st rounder as it turned out, but it’s bad asset management. Maxiell was a bit of a meh pick, Stuckey was a solid enough pick, but nothing special. There was a time Pistons fans talked of Stuckey’s hidden “star potential”, but 5 years on and he’d been a big disappointment, and is still a below average player for his position (assuming he has one). Worse, Joe drafted Afflalo only to give him away 2 years on. If Joe had an eye for talent, he clearly didn’t use it here. Afflalo looks better than Stuckey does these days. Joe didn’t really do anything great during this period, but didn’t do anything bad either, he just let the Pistons keep making the Conference finals, and waited for the right move…

Joe Dumars the Bumbler
The moment when most fans trace Joe’s descent into incompetence begins with his decision to trade away star point guard Billiups for disgruntled cancer Allen Iverson. From the outset, the move made little to no sense; Iverson had no position on the Pistons, the whole reason for the 76ers had to find Eric Snow was because AI couldn’t play point guard. Worse, Iverson was the classic example of a player doomed to fall apart physically as he aged- he played too many minutes, relied on his speed a great deal, and had poor conditioning. Magic Johnson had commented on Iverson’s conditioning some years earlier, comparing him to Kevin Johnson, a guy who Magic had always told during his career “would be a 10 year player”, because he didn’t look after his body (KJ had always laughed Magic off when he said this, but sure enough KJ aged poorly). Iverson had been in the NBA over 10 years. Worse still, Joe had gotten rid of Flip Saunders, who had proven a great coach for the Pistons, and brought in Michael Curry, a 40 year old former defensive guard with no coaching experience and no credibility. It was naïve to think Iverson and the veteran Pistons would respond to him, or treat him as an authority figure. Meanwhile Billups helped the Nuggets to the Western Conference Finals.

Now of course, half the reason for making the trade was to get Iverson’s expiring contract. But there were other ways to get cap space that didn’t involve trading Billups. Worse still, Joe had totally overestimated his capacity to get free agents to come to a rebuilding team like the Pistons. His pick up on Ben Gordon and Charlie V was just awful. Then to make matters worse, he had just extended Rip Hamilton, less important than Billups, and went on the extend Prince when they should have been rebuilding. Joe’s drafts continued to be very hit and miss. He picked Daye, a guy who has yet to prove he can be more than a bench warmer, while passing on Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson and Taj Gibson, all clearly superior players who fitted the Pistons needs to a T. He traded Budinger away for nothing. And while Monroe was a great pick, his selection of Brandon Knight was not. Passing on guys like Kawhi Leonard and Klay Thompson is going to look really bad in a few years, and quite a few other guys they passed on have looked pretty good too.

Perhaps worst of all, has been Dumars slowness to correct the situation. Once the team hit the skids, he didn’t try to rebuild, except inadvertently through his poor coach hires, and continues to try and milk wins out of teams who were clearly going nowhere, things even getting as bad as a player mutiny against one of his coaches. Now obviously Joe has been handicapped a little by the ownership issues, but really, that’s no excuse for most of the mistakes he’s made.

Where are we now
Joe is now in a situation where he has some talented young guys like Drummond, and not a lot of chance for short term success. We’ll have to wait and see if Joe can redeem himself, but if he wants to it is clear he needs to address two issues badly:
1) Joe needs to get better scouts, and reassess the way he makes draft picks. I’m hopeful he’s already started doing this, which would explain why he picks the last few years look a lot better than they did prior to 2010.
2) Secondly, Joe needs to go back and rethink his strategic understanding of basketball. Building a title team without a true superstar is one of the hardest, least likely things to happen in the NBA, and just because he caught lightning once, it’s no reason to think he can do it again, as recent years have proven. He needs to know when to lose in the short term, to win long term, and he needs a better eye for talent. Signing guys like Ben Gordon and Charlie V… just awful.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:37 pm
by jman2585
Clippers (9 biggest Sterling Stuff Ups to Save Money)
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I haven’t put any of the actual GM’s of the Clippers, because in reality Sterling is responsible for most of the bad times in LA over the years. And while things are now finally looking bright for “the other” LA team, with the name nobody understands, I thought it would be nice to look back at 9 of the biggest cheapskate moves of Donald Sterling.

Move 1- trades Antonio McDyess
In 1995 Sterling traded the #2 pick away for Brent Barry and Rodney Rogers, because he felt McDyess would ask for too much money (back them rookie scale contracts didn't work like they do now, and rookies could see big pay days). Sheed and KG were in the top 5 in this draft.

Move 2- Sterling trades Kyrie Irving so he can save a few bucks
Forgotten in the commotion of the Clippers getting Chris Paul is the fact that Sterling gave away the #1 pick in the 2011 draft just so he didn’t have to pay for Baron Davis, a player he would take great pleasure in booing at home games: (http://www.sportsgrid.com/media/donald- ... -clippers/)

Move 3- Trading Tom Chambers
The Clippers picked Tom Chambers with the #8 pick in the lotto in the 1981 draft, and he looked great. In his first 2 seasons he was putting up 17ppg, just under 7rpg, in only 33 mpg, on great efficiency. The future star Chambers would become seemed evident. However the Clippers realised he would want a big raise if he stayed (his contract expired 2 years after being traded, and he was already making noises about it), so they moved him for journeyman James Donaldson (who originally refused to sign with the Clippers, in an attempt to block the trade, which had been leaked to the press), and a 1st rounder (which ended up being the 14th pick in the 1984 draft). Unbelievably dumb move. Donaldson got out of Clipper land as fast as he could of course, meaning they gave up a future all-star big for the #14 pick. And of course, they Clippers didn’t pick the right guy with it. They took Michael Cage. 2 picks later? John Stockton was selected. FML.

Move 4- Trading down 2 spots for negative value
In 2004 the Clippers had the #2 pick in the draft, but they decided the player they really wanted was Livingston. Let’s ignore whether that was a smart decision for a minute, to focus on the awful return Sterling accepted for trading down 2 spots, in what was widely perceived at the time as a 2 deep draft. He asked the Bobcats to take back Predrag Drobnjak’s $2.5 mill contract, because Sterling didn’t want to pay it. This would already be the crappiest return ever, but here’s where it gets funny. The Bobcats then traded Predrag Drobnjak to the Hawks for a 2nd rounder (who became Ron Turiaf). The Bobcats got positive value out of the negative asset Sterling wanted them to pay for. Clown.

Move 5- The Clippers said the health insurance in their assistant coaches contract wouldn’t cover his cancer treatment
Unbelievable.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/3/15/2 ... ach-cancer
What a way to create the worst possible image for yourself around the NBA. Don’t worry though, the players got together and paid for it.

Move 6- Donald Sterling makes important employees sue him to get their money
Both Mike Dunleavy and LA Legend Elgin Baylor have had to sue Donald Sterling for money he owed them over their time there as coach and GM respectively. Mike had a written contract, so was able to enforce it all in a court.
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/10 ... y-20110611
Baylor didn’t, and lost. It still isn’t a victory for Sterling, because making former greats who are beloved by the community sue you in public (and accuse you of racism) isn’t a smart way to improve your image as a prospective employer to players. Here’s some of the fruits of the trial:
In Baylor’s suit, Sterling’s numermous horrible comments and business practices came to light, such as his telling Baylor he wanted to fill his team with “poor black boys from the South and a white head coach.” Which is nothing compared to housing discrimination claims (Sterling made his money as a slumlord) in which Sterling allegedly said “black tenants smell and attract vermin,” and "Hispanics smoke, drink and just hang around the building."


Move 7- Sterling doesn’t spend money on scouts
This isn’t any single move, so much as the fact that because Sterling spends almost no money on scouts, and most of the staff don’t last long period, his front office has an awful record in the draft. There are too many bad picks to mention. Here are some contenders:
- Kandiman at #1 in 1998.
- 3 Picks in 1987 first round. They manage to blow all of them, passing on Scottie Pippen, Kevin Johnson, Kenny Smith, Polynice, D.McKey, Ho Grant, Reggie Miller, Mugsy, Mark Jackson (twice), and Reggie Lewis (3 times).
- Korolev in the 2005 Lotto (why?)
- In 1996 they took L.Wright at #7, passing on Kobe, Peja, Steve Nash, Jermaine, Z-Ill and others. Worse still, the Clippers were one of the few teams Kobe was willing to work out for, meaning unlike other teams the Clippers had every reason to think Kobe was good. Kobe was actually willing to play there. The reason they didn’t take him? “People won’t think we’re serious if we draft a HS’er”- http://blogs.thescore.com/tbj/2012/02/1 ... -mistakes/
- Dan Ferry at #2 in 1989. This was a dumb pick on a number of levels. Firstly, Ferry was just not that good, picking him meant passing on Sean Elliot, Glen Rice, Shawn Kemp, Tim Hardaway, Mookie Blaylock, etc. Secondly, if the Clippers had bothered to talk to Ferry, they’d have known he was superstitious and unwilling to play with them. Instead they tried to strong arm him, and he went to Europe to play. The Clippers wasted a year for no reason.

Maybe Sterling should pay more money to scouts, and less money on hookers to advise him how to manage the team: http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/sterling- ... ions-29983

Move 8- Traded Franchise Player Danny Manning for a washed up Dominique Wilkins
Sterling didn’t want to pay for Manning’s upcoming free agency. As a result he decided the best way to sell tickets with the casual fan was to trade Manning for someone with a name (but who was washed up and available on the cheap). Predictably, trading 27 year old Danny Manning for 34 year old Wilkins did not end well. Wilkins, who was a free agent at the end of that season, and wanted nothing to do with Clipperville, left that offseason after only 25 games for the Clippers. Manning was worth a lot more. One has to wonder how fans of the Clippers rationalised these moves, trading a guy they’d taken #1 who was a young all-star for a washed up star who leaves immediately in the offseason.

Move 9- Refuse to pay any of your free agents
The Clippers finally had some promising talent in 2003 and it was felt after their performance in 2002 they could make the playoffs. The one problem was virtually the whole team was up for free agency- Brand, Miller, Maggette, Kandiman, Odom, like everyone (even Q.Rich’s was only 1 year longer). The Clippers addressed this issue… by doing nothing. Unsurprisingly, the team did not play well, everyone looked out for themselves and focused on where to go that offseason. Almost every Clipper tried to leave that offseason- Brand signed one of the many max contracts offered to him, only to have the Clippers max it (to his dismay). Maggette also signed an offer sheet, and the Clippers also matched. Odom walked to the Heat, Miller went to Denver, Kandiman left to Minny, and 1 year later Q.Rich jumped ship to the Suns. This is an excellent example of how not to get value for assets- you trade them if you’re not going to pay them.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:38 pm
by jman2585
Knicks (Isiah Thomas), 2003-2008
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An article here summarises the awfulness of Isiah at some length:
http://nymag.com/news/sports/45787/
There’s not much to add after that. But a few posts I found from my searches are worth including:
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=764781
kosmovitelli wrote:As I said a zillion times, the Marbury trade is the worst trade Isiah ever made.

Technically, it may not be the worst trade (Curry might have my vote) but I say it's the worst simplye because it's the one that started the terrible spiral of overpaying for marginal talent.

When Isiah Thomas was named GM (december 22, 2003), he started pretty good, he took time to think and decided who he should he keep and who he should let go.
He claimed he waived Zlavko Vranes because he didn't work hard in practice and wasn't good enough for the NBA. He considered buying out Weatherspoon and finally traded him for back up PG Moochie Norris (one of our biggest need at the time), I thought he did a great job at the time. I couldn't believe he was able to trade Spoon.
Isiah did a solid work the first month, he found out who he needed to get rid of and who he needed to keep.
Everything was going well. Isiah inherited of a team with a 10-18 record and after he was named GM the team lost one game and then had a 4 game winning streak. Isiah pumped the team. We had Keith Van Horn, Allan Houston, Kurt Thomas and Antonio McDyess (coming back from a season ending injury) so contrary to popular belief that team wasn't garbage. It was surely a flawed team (hence the losing record) but not a terrible team (like the one we have now), we could work with that team. You could either blow up the team or rebuild on the fly. Isiah had the choice. If Isiah added a good distributor (like Cassel) and a PF (like Rasheed Wallace), he could have tried to win now and rebuild on the fly at the same time. With the expiring contracts, Sweetney, Lampe (who somehow had value at the time) and the picks if needed, Isiah should have done a much better job.

So after one month, the infamous Stephon Marbury trade happened then it was over. Isiah Thomas gave up all the assets he had : the expiring contract of McDyess, Charlie Ward's unguaranteed contract (the Spurs wanted to trade for Ward at the time, they were delighted when they signed him after he was waived by the Suns), Lampe, Vujanic's rights and two first round picks (one unprotected and one protected throught 2010).
Not only Isiah surrendered all that to get Marbury but he also accepted to take back Penny Hardaway's horrendous deal.

It's one of the worst horrible trades I've ever seen because Isiah compounded the mistakes :
1. He traded for a player that didn't fit the team
2. He traded first round picks (including one unprotected)
3. He took back long term contracts

Horrible deal on all accounts.
I will even add one more : this deal pumped the fans (and the ownership) and made them believe the Knicks were back on track and only needed one or two additional trades.
They thought we were one or two players away from being a contender.

So it led Isiah to trade KVH (who played well for us) for Tim Thomas and Nazr, expiring contracts for Jamal Crawford and so on.

The Hawks traded Rasheed Wallace for expiring contracts and a late first round pick. Isiah could have traded McDyess and Sweetney for Rasheed Wallace. Not only Sheed was a dominant PF (one of our biggest need with the PG position) but he only had 4 months remaining on his contract. Basically you trade for Sheed, see what happens and decide if you keep him or sign and trade him to another team. Instead Isiah traded for the albatross contracts of Marbury and Penny. Monumental mistake. That's when everything went wrong. Isiah started good the first month but with the acquisition of Marbury and Penny he made the team derail.

After the acquisition of Marbury it was a chase for an elusive playoff spot. Isiah Thomas moves got him into a tight corner, after that he could no longer rebuild (even on the fly), he tried to chase the playoffs at all costs.

The Marbury trade is also his worst move because he gave a signal to all other NBA teams. With Layden, the whole league considered us as the garbage disposal of the NBA. The only team where you could turn instantly an albatross contract into an expiring contract. The Mavericks dumped Howard Eisley on us, the Rockets did the same with Shandon Anderson, etc.
I (and so did most people) thought it was a regime change after Layden was fired. Keep in mind also after the Dice trade, Layden didn't made any bonehead trade. In the next 18 months he only traded Spree for KVH (not a bad trade, he didn't add too much salary and both players had same value). The Marbury trade changed everything, it gave a signal to other teams that we were back on business and ready to accept garbage contracts for marginal talent upgrade. We were ready to trade short contracts for longer contracts in order to win now.
The other side-effect of the Marbury trade is the fact we traded two first round picks (including one unprotected, pretty rare to see a team trade an unprotected pick) and two second round picks. We gave a signal we didn't mind trading picks. The whole league probably laughed and all NBA teams played the same game : try to dump albatross contracts on us and try to steal away draft picks.
If you take a look at the Curry trade, it's quite obvious John Paxson used the Marbury trade as a blueprint.
For Marbury Isiah traded an unprotected first round pick (2004) + a future protected pick (until 2010) + two 2nd round picks + expiring contracts.
For Curry, Isiah traded an unprotected first round pick (2006) + a swap of first round picks (2005) + two 2nd round picks + Sweetney + a swap of expiring contracts (Antonio Davis and Tim Thomas).


All things considered, the Marbury trade is by far Isiah's worst trade and one of the worst Knicks trades I've ever seen. Monumental mistake that set back the franchise for years. When you have no plan and no direction, you're bound to make a mistake like that but this one was monumental.
The Ewing trade was the turning point for Layden. Marbury is a similar mark for Thomas, a historical change of course for us. And I didn't even mention, thanks to that trade, we still a first round pick to the Jazz. We are handcuffed by that debt to the Jazz. Complete disaster.


It’s still amazing that Isiah traded for Eddy Curry, a player who had heart issues the season before (who couldn’t get his contract insured because of them, and who refused a genetic test to see if he had a heart condition), and in the process gave up what could have been LaMarcus Aldridge and Noah. Crazy.

One comment on his drafting that is worth a read is here:
viewtopic.php?t=1014436
NyKnicks1714 wrote: Isiah's drafting is the most overrated thing on this board. He made 3 good picks; Ariza, Nate, and Chandler (Lee was Suhr's pick, not his). Frye was a bad pick, Balkman was a terrible pick (People make so much of Walsh passing on Jennings, but Renaldo Balkman over Rajon Rondo, much much worse), and Collins was a bad pick. He made 3 good picks, 3 bad picks. No spectacular picks.

What makes Isiah's tenure even worse is that he saw the mistakes Layden made, and didn't change anything. He continued to add salary with no long-term plan to improve the team. What I find funny is that he traded away picks, put the team in salary-cap hell, all to "win now", and he wasn't even able to do that. It's like taking your kid's college funds and betting all the money on a horse that's been scratched from the race, having already seen your father do the same thing years earlier.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:40 pm
by jman2585
Knicks (Layden), 1999-2003
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One take is here:
viewtopic.php?t=1014436
moocow007 wrote:I'll have to go with Layden.

Layden was really the one that started this entire mess that the Knicks have just finally dug themselves out form under.

Not a single one of his moves made sense. Not one.

Some of his dandy moves:

1. Trading Knicks legend Patrick Ewing's big expiring for a gaggle of long contracted overpaid role players (Luc Longley, Chris Dudley & Travis Knight), has beens (Glen "Cream Chees Knees" Rice) and no names (Lazoro Borrel anyone?).

2. Trading Erick Strickland AND a 1st AND 2nd round pick for Othella Harrington.

3. Trading Glen Rice's shorter contract for two WAY OVERPAID role players in Shandon Anderson and Howard Eisley (who combined for ate up more than $80 million in salaries).

4. Trading an in his prime Marcus Camby, Mark Jackson's big expiring contract AND a lottery pick (Amare Stoudemire was still on the board when the Knicks pick was made) for Antonio McDyess (who was coming off of major knee injuries to both knees).

PS: Howard Eisley, in his infinite ineptitude actually proved to be even worse of a pickup than his contract when he undercut his own teammate (McDyess) in preseason effectively killing whatever chances McDyess had of returning to his pre-bad knees 20/10 days.

5. Outbidding no one apparenlty but himself to resign Alan Houston to that crazy, crazy, CRAZY, contract (6 years $120 million).

6. Throwing 3 years and $24 million at Clarence "3 neck chins" Weatherspoon (when they already have a gazzillion PF's) when a comparable PF at the time (Gary Trent) was signed to a $1.5 million one year contract.

7. And finally culminating his illustrious GM career by trading a guy who proved he can perform in NY (Latrell Sprewell) for a guy that had already shown he can't perform in NY(NJ) in Keith Van Horn.

Don't get me wrong, Thomas also made plenty of mistakes but at the time his two biggest deals (Marbury and Curry) at least didn't immediately leave you scratching your head. Very similar deals to the one that Thomas actually did to get Marbury was proposed on RGM and laughed at by fans of other teams. And the Curry deal (especially with Larry Brown coming on board) seemed like a sound investment at the time.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:41 pm
by jman2585
76ers (Nash), 1986-1990
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:John Nash, 76ers, 1986-90

The 76ers were once the 3rd great franchise, next to LA and the Celtics, they could have been great through he 90's easily, if not for the idiocy that took place from 1986-1990

Step 1- Trade Moses Malone, a solid role player and a #12 and #21 draft pick to the Wizards in exchange for C.Robinson (who played less than 150 games for the 76ers) and Jeff Ruland (who played 18 games for the 76ers).

Step 2- Trade the #1 pick in the draft Brad Daughtery for Roy Hinson (who would be given away 2 years later)

Step 3- Trade away the rights to Shawn Kemp for trash (in fairness, this wasn't forseeable, but it highlights the way this team just kept trading away picks which could have been used to obtain valuable assets).

Step 4- Trade promising young role player Sedale Threat away for nothing.

This all led to step 5, which was the inevitable departure of Barkley, from a poorly managed team whose ownership he hated. They traded away Moses, and even the classy Mo Cheeks for nothing... would it have killed them to hold onto to Mo Cheeks for a few more years so he could retire a 76er! The 76ers were a team who since 1977 had won 50, 55, 47, 59, 62, 58, 65, 52, 58 and 54 games, they had won a title, and made the finals 3 other times. They went from that to a team who was averaging 45 wins the next four years, and then the bottom fell out and they really started to suck it up.

GM's get judged partly by their ability to see "ahead of the curve" as it were. Almost every mistake a GM makes can be pardoned by saying "made sense at the time" (not blunderers like Isiah or Paxson, but you get my meaning). That sort of logic doesn't get us far for judging GM's. Sure, you have to take into account context, luck, etc. But results are an important indicator.

I think the justification of the 76ers management for instance is guilty of this sort of analysis. Moses was an all-nba talent with alot of value. They sent him, plus a role player, plus a #12 pick and a #21 pick, all for 2 guys who posted empty stats on bad teams, and who fell out of the NBA right after. Sure, the way they fell out of the NBA was bad luck, but to act like these guys were potential all-stars who lucked out is just false, they were posting stats with as much meaning as Monta Ellis (less even), on teams who didn't win (and often sucked huge). And no, this Cliff was not even remotely as impactful a player as the better known version. Just a terrible trade.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:43 pm
by jman2585
Raptors (Colangelo), 2006-present
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viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1242383

Alfred wrote:There are many General Managers that deserve to be called out for their ineptness at running an NBA team, although some are much worse than others. Feel free to vote and make your case for why the General Manager you chose is the worst in the league.

My pick is Bryan Colangelo. Let's run down some of the reasons why I think he's the worst:

-General Manager in a big market, with the richest ownership group in pro sports. Unlike some of the other GMs on this list, Colangelo can't cry poor, and has a huge market that is dying for a winner. Taxes can't even be used as an excuse, as Toronto is middle of the pack in terms of athletes paying taxes on their earnings.
-5 Straight years without playoffs (franchise record) with only 1 winning season in 7 years.
-Lost Bosh for nothing.
-Collects horrible contracts: Calderon's huge extension, Kapono for the MLE, Kleiza for near-MLE, Hedo Turkoglu's absurd contract, Landry Fields for ~20 million, Rudy Gay for the max, DeMar for 10 million a year, Bargnani for 10 million a year, etc.
-Bad trades. Picks and expirings for Jermaine O'Neal, O'Neal and a first rounder for an expiring Marion + Marcus Banks, and expiring + Ed Davis for Rudy Gay, a lottery pick for Kyle Lowry, etc.
-Bad picks. Bargnani, Terrence Ross over Drummond, never having a second round pick pan out.
-Bad coaching hires. Extending Sam Mitchell, who has never been rehired, Jay Triano, who coached one of the worst defensive teams of all time, Dwayne Casey, who has just been miserable.


Henderix wrote:I think it is easily Colangelo.

Out of the 100's of moves he's made since being here I've liked probably 5 moves. Drafting JV, Trading for Amir, attempting to trade for Chandler, drafting Ed Davis, and trading for Lowry. And, even with these 5 moves, the Chandler trade never happened, and he turned Davis into the worst contract in the NBA.

Every other move is all over the map. 100 shots per game up tempo, turned into a Euro ball experiment with Bargnani at C that was going to revolutionize the game. Then twin towers with JO and Bosh for half a season. Then lose Bosh for nothing, and flounder around. Then attempting a half ass rebuild for a few months. Then go into 'win now' mode with zero foundation of all stars. And every time he shifts gears he just spews assets all over the place, and collects contracts that are huge liabilities. I can't imagine how it could be any worse than this.

His intentions of putting making money over winning are glaring too, as are his intentions to make moves that will keep his job over making moves that are best for the organization. The guy wanted to bring in a 39 year old Steve Nash to be a Canadian circus show to bring in cash. It makes zero sense from a basketball pov to blow the bank on a 39 year old when you have the foundations of a 20-something win team. We clearly needed to rebuild, not put together a 40 win team that had a window of 2 years. Also, he goes after 'name' players that he can market for a bit like Gay, Turk, JO, Marion, that are absolutely brutal from a advanced stats POV. I'm not sure if he actually thinks these were 'great' players when he went after them (which means he can't evaluate talent at all) or if he didn't care that they sucked and just wanted a 'name' to market to fans to sell season tickets, or a 'name' he could give to ownership to help keep his job.

I can't see how anyone can be worse.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:44 pm
by jman2585
Cavs (Paxson), 1999-2005
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:Jim Paxson (Cleveland Cavaliers, 1999-2005)
Jim Paxson stands alone as one of the most incompetent GM’s in recent history.

Anyone can be a mediocre GM, but it takes a special kind of deftness to mismanage a franchise as badly as Paxson, who seemed to be a walking unlucky horse shoe. Here are some of his draft picks:

Diop (8th pick overall, 2001 draft)- total bust
Wanger (6th pick overall, 2002 draft)- total bust
Langdon (11th pick overall, 1999)- total bust
L.Jackson (10th pick overall, 2004) - total bust
Mihm (they traded Jamal Crawford, the 8th overall pick and cash for this guy, the 7th overall pick in 2000) - bust
The picks he didn't screw up, he usually traded (badly). He gave a lottery pick away, in exchange for Sasha Pavlovic, and a 1st round pick for Jiri Welsch. The man may not have gotten a single trade right (bar one). He had a young Andre Miller, at the time mooted as a max player with great trade value, however he botched the negotiations so badly he ended up with Darius Miles in exchange, who he then made play point guard. This wasn’t an accident, Paxson actually wanted to play Miles PG, because he thought he would be a mismatch for other teams… not unlike Magic Johnson… this would be funny if it wasn’t true. He traded away a young Brendan Haywood for Doleac, a young Derek Anderson for Lamond Murray, then flipped that for a guy named Yogi (when your name is Yogi, you fail as an NBA player). Young Harpring got traded for trash, and don't even get started about the Boozer fiasco.

He only tanked for Lebron because he had no choice, in fact he conducted an illegal workout (and was fined for it) before he was talked into tanking, and then luck bailed him out. Even someone on realgm would have lucked out on some of those moves. I guess you can say he got Andre Miller and Varejao, but it’s hard to ignore the body of his work, which is dreadful. By the time Dan Ferry got to Cleveland the place was a trainwreck, with Lebron and no other useful assets.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:45 pm
by jman2585
Wizard/Bullets (Unseld), 1997-2003
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AnaheimRoyale wrote:Wes Unseld- Bullets/Wizards, effectively from the 96 offseason to 03

Unseld's tenure was technically interupted by Michael Jordan's presence, so for the purposes of this analysis we'll stick to stuff Unseld did while he was officially in charge of the Bullet/Wizards.

Looking at Unseld's GM'ing career, it's hard to find words enough to describe its vomitously, awful, inept bumblingness. Unseld came into a situation where he had a team that included 22 year old Chris Webber, 22 year old Juwan Howard, and 21 year old Rasheed Wallace. All were relatively happy being in Washington (amazingly), Howard and Webber were best friends even. The team also had a young Calbert Cheany who still had some promise to him, and while they were weak at the point guard spot, with a number of solid-ish guys filling the 1 spot by committee, there was every reason to be excited about the teams direction. They'd just won 39 games in spite of Webber playing only 15 games in 1996, and Sheed missing another 17. These guys would get alot better, and the team could become a contender once more, as it had been in Unseld's day.

From a situation that looked so promising, Unseld managed to make almost every blunder imaginable. First, he was understandably concerned about the point guard spot. It was relatively weak, so of course it made sense to address it. It made no sense to trade a 21 year old big man with a future as bright as Rasheed Wallace's for a 30 year old point guard with a history of making trouble and causing locker room issues and Harvey Grant (who was also on his way out of the NBA). It's not as though Strickland's demise couldn't be seen coming either, the man was famous for eating hot dogs when he was supposed to be working out. Strickland made the team a tiny bit better in the short term, at the cost of a future all-star. Idiocy.
Editor's note- He also gave Strickland a big contract (which they then had to buy out), and Grant's contract wasn't great, but since the Wizards got a rule waiver to re-sign Juwan Howard I don't think it affected them.

Wes was lucky enough to sign the unknown Ben Wallace... which would have looked great, if he hadn't traded him away 3 years later as he was about to bust out... for Ike Austin. It's amazing that a guy like Unseld, who was himself undersized and a hard worker, would be so unappreciative of Ben Wallace... it really showed a total lack of ability to assess a guy he'd had on his team for 3 years.

But World Wide Wes was only getting warmed up. Webber wasn't cutting the bacon... he had to trade him... for a washed up Mitch Richmond... the Wizards have just had their 1st two winning seasons since 1987 and 1982, in spite of some injuries and young guys making young guy mistakes... and he trades his 24 year old, crowd pleasing, star power forward for a 33 year old shooting guard (who predictably, is off the team a few years later, and out of the NBA almost immediately after). Who does that? And this is one of the strangest things about the whole situation, for all the talk of Webber eventually leaving the Bullets/Wizards, he was relatively happy there. He was playing with his best friend, and his contract expired the same time as Mitch Richmond's did (so there was no security in trading for him, even if he hadn't declined). Webber hated Sactown initially alot more than he was whining about Washington.
Editor's note- Unseld then signed Mitch to a 4 year $40 mill contract, making him the highest paid shooting guard in the NBA. What was he thinking? He also took back a bad contract- Otis Thorpe.

The only good thing he did was draft Rip, who Jordan then traded away for a player he felt complimented him better (it was of course, a disaster). Even Juwan Howard he screwed up, by overpaying him (when the NBA stepped in to stop the Heat getting him), when he would have done better to ask for other compensation (if he was just going to trade Webber like an idiot). Instead he botched the negotiations so badly, he ended up having to give up the teams 97 1st rounder, because he didn't have any cap room left to sign Juwan Howard. Before he left, he also extended Stackhouse (idiotic), drafted the useless Jarvis Hayes with his lotto pick (why!?) when many good players were available, and while the stuff Jordan did is on MJ too, Unseld's was there to provide good advice, something I have no doubt he was poorly qualified to do.

When the Pistons won the title back in 04, alot of media columnists joked "The Wizards just won the title", because 3 of their stars had been given away by the Wizards for nothing (Ben, Sheed and Rip), if I remember correctly they helped facilitate trading away Billups too, when they should have signed him, though alot of teams made that mistake. The guy might be unique in NBA history for giving away 3 stars, not counting Rip, (and in such a short amount of time)... I mean, these guys were all-nba players. Webber was a franchise player, Ben Wallace could be a defensive franchise player, and Sheed had franchise player talent (even if he didn't use it fully in his career), and the guy got almost nothing for them. He was also a bad coach, bad VP, the guy just seemed awful in every non-playing role he had for the Wizards/Bullets. Truly a terrible GM.


This article is also worth a read- http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... of-things/
Sheed actually wanted to stay in Bullet-town. And they moved him. Incredible.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 2:46 pm
by jman2585
How to Rebuild, or “Why there is no Pacer model”
I saw alot of talk on the General Forum about the "Pacers Model" and how it should be favoured over a draft centric model, and I thought I'd post my views here for discussion.

I disagree with a lot of the things said in this thread, including the central premise; that what the Pacers have done is a model to be emulated by other teams.

Some Context- Just how good is the Pacers team?
I hate to begin this post on a negative note, but some of the comparisons of this Pacers team to the Detroit team of 2004 (who I’ll get to later) are very unfortunate ones. The 2004 Pistons regular season record is clearly misleading, because as people have noted, they only obtained Rasheed Wallace late in the season, then they went on a tear to close the season. Without Sheed, they were not title contenders. With Rasheed the Pistons in 2004 has a team of 3 guys who were more or less franchise type players. Billups definitely was by 2004, Ben Wallace was a defensive franchise player like Mutumbo in 2004, and Sheed could be that guy when he wanted to be… which wasn’t all the time, and he came with some bad habits, but he was basically a star. He was the best player on a Blazers team who in 2000 were 1 bad quarter away from eliminating the Lakers, and almost assuredly winning the title (back then, the real finals was played in the Western Conference Finals). In addition to those 3 guys, they had an all-star (Rip) and a really good glue guy who was an above average starter (Prince). The Pistons also has 6th man of the year Corliss Williamson, a young Okur and some other serviceable guys coming off the bench like Elden Campbell. Looking at the Pacers, I find it hard to see the comparison. Roy Hibbert getting compared to Ben Wallace is a joke, even if he is one of the better defensive 5’s in the NBA, he’s no Ben Wallace. The Pacers best guy and only all-star is no a franchise player like Billups was, the current version of David West is not as good as Sheed was in 2004, and the Pistons are more talented everywhere else too. Granger isn’t going to help them much. He replicates what George does, and will just take touches from West and George, and is bad as an offensive scorer (which is unfortunate, since that’s his job). He was a pretend all-star, not a real one like Rip. Granger is also coming back from an injury, and may not be the same again. There’s a reason the Pacers have often looked at trading Granger. He’s just not that good.

Now of course, the Pacers are a good team, and fans have every right to be happy about their team. Sometimes the best thing for a franchise is to build the fanbase by having a respectable and competitive team, and the Pacers are certainly that. Recovering from the Brawl and aftermath, I’d be happy with the current team too. But the portrayal of the Pacers as “one guy away” like the Pistons is wrong, unless that guy is someone like Chris Paul or Tony Parker or Dwayne Wade. Does anyone see a way for the Pacers to get anyone like that? I sure don’t. The Pacers are not a real contender, they put up a fight against a Heat team without their only serviceable big man. That Heat team now has Ray Allen added to it, along with more depth (useful bench bigs like Chris Anderson for instance, who has been very solid for them), and more experience playing together (which was the only thing holding the Heat back in 2011, where they also almost won with a more flawed team). The Pacers right now are probably the 7th or 8th best team in the NBA (which is in line with their SRS too), which is good of course, but should be put into context. People have already pointed out the Pacers record broken down against good/bad teams, etc, and in the West the Pacers would be assured of a 1st round exit. Nor is the NBA about “match ups” when you’re playing true contenders. If it was the Heat would have lost to multiple teams last year with whom they had bad match ups (including the Thunder). Match ups are nice for first round upsets, like the 2007 Warriors, but the real contenders don’t lose because of frickin match ups. As some posters like Trevelyan pointed out, better teams like the 2011 Bulls and 2011 and 2012 Celtics failed against worse Heat teams than the current one, in spite of fans insisting that they would win with their “good defence” or “great match ups” (and in 2012, in spite of the Heat missing their only good big man). I literally don’t see how you could make a case that the 2013 Pacers are a similarly good team to the 2011 Bulls for instance, who had everything the Pacers had going for them but better, on paper and on the court, which is why they performed much better.

So that’s some important context, the only reason their fans can talk about an ECF’s appearance is because the East is much weaker than the West, so already their “model” is an issue for half the teams in the NBA (who don’t play in the East). Until a few games ago, the Pacers were virtually tied with the Nets and Rose-less Bulls, and I assume nobody is seriously holding those teams up as a model for how to build a contender. Not that I disagree with those teams going in the direction they’re going… the Bulls are winning for their fans in the hope Rose comes back and things change (they won’t, but they’ll be good enough to sell it, and the owners will make a fortune as usual in the process), and the Nets need to have a team which is good now to win over the NY fanbase, and have an owner who doesn’t give a damn about the luxury tax (and it’s working, they team is building a great fan base- ticket sales are up over 20% despite having the most expensive tickets in the NBA, and they figure to make a profit even with the crazy spending, while long term their equity and revenue will continue to increase like crazy). That direction makes sense for those teams, just as your direction makes some sense for yours, but they are not “models” to be emulated (see later section on this). It’s also strange that you are unwilling to cheer for the Nets and Bulls, who are also playing to “win now” instead of “tanking” (which is supposedly bad). Shouldn’t the fans of the Nets and Bulls be thrilled ownership didn’t tank, and instead tried to win as much as possible under your logic? After all, it’s not like the fans pay the luxury tax bills of these teams, so how much they’re spending is irrelevant.

Nor is the Pacers situation likely to change for the better. David West is a free agent this offseason, and some team like the Mavs who want to win now is sure to overpay for him, which means you’re potentially going to lose him. Even if you don’t, West is turning 33… he’s clearly going to get worse sooner rather than later, and the Pacers can’t easily find a replacement for a guy like that. Granger has been getting worse for years now, and is likely to continue to do so once he’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s a guy who relies more on athleticism than the average fan thinks. George’s improvement has been nice, but there’s no indication he’s going to be a star. There are many fundamental things about his game that he has shown no real improvement with, and very few players ever do at this juncture. He can be an all-star for you, but that’s about it. George Hill is what he is, a guy who is ideally a 6th man on a contender, and after seeing Hibbert regress this year (though continue to play great D) I hope no Pacer fans are realistically looking at Hibbert as their savior. Hibbert is a player almost every team would love to have, but he was very lucky to make his only all-star team, it was mainly owing to injuries to guys like Horford and Bogut (who was good back then). The new front court all-star vote system basically ends Hibbert’s prospects of ever making an all-star team again. Nobody else on the Pacers is particularly significant (and I’m including Lance). That’s a team with 1 all-star (but who is not really a franchise player) and 1 good (but not really all-star calibre) defensive big as their 2 best players. How many teams built like that have contended for a title? Zero. Likewise, talk of how the Pacers are better “from 4-10” is a distraction. The Kings were better than the Lakers from 3-12 in 2002, but the Lakers were the better team. Depth is nice, but the NBA is a star game, and nobody should be trying to argue they’re better than a top heavy team like the Heat by looking at who has the better 6th man.

Next year it’s easy to see the teams who will have improved (or in the Lakers case, sorted their S#@$ out) and gotten better than the Pacers, but it’s doubtful the Pacers will improve much. The Bulls likely get Rose back, and move ahead of the Pacers. The Lakers/Houston get Dwight healthy, they’re now better than the Pacers. The same sorts of teams are all likely to be better than the Pacers too (Heat, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Memphis, etc), and the Pacers at best will be right there with teams like NY, Denver, etc. As I said, this is not a bad place to be. Sometimes teams do better to win a little in the short term, see if they can luck out, and build a winning culture. I’m a fan of what the Hawks have been doing in recent years too, since even if they weren’t contending for a title, they were building their credibility back with the fans, and hopefully rebuilding the fanbase after many disastrous years.

What is the “Pacers Model”, and how realistic is it to “emulate”
Another thing about the Pacers “model” is that it has almost no defining characteristics which teams can copy. I have heard in depth explanations of what Moreyball consists of, or the Spurs/Thunder model, “being the Knicks/Lakers”, or building through the draft in general. But the Pacers model isn’t a model at all, it is defined only by a negative; “don’t tank”. That’s not a model. There was no particular plan in drafting Granger or Hibbert or George. The front office thought those guys were the best available, they were more or less right, so they drafted them. Every front office is trying to do that already, they don’t need to look to the Pacers to gain this wisdom. Some teams could do a better job of it of course, and get better scouts (though I’d peg the Spurs and Thunder as having the best scouts to be honest, and generally work with far worse picks), but there is nothing unique to the Pacers in trying to do this. The Pacers weren’t looking at advanced stats and trying to pick based on a method everyone else was overlooking like in Moneyball, they just thought “he looks like the best guy for this pick”.

Then let’s imagine every team did have scouts equal to the Spurs or Thunder (or Pacers), heck let’s imagine that every front office was equally good. 16 teams still make the playoffs, and 14 don’t. That doesn’t mean the 14 who didn’t were bad, we just established they were all equal… but there is an unequal number of talented players, and there are unequal conditions in which teams play. There is only 1 Lebron James. There are only 4 teams in NY or LA. There are richer teams and poorer teams. So even if every front office was equal, some will still be “losers” by your definition, which is illogical. Most of the variables, front offices can’t control. They can’t control what city they’re in, whether they have a rich ownership or attractive location, etc. What they can control is what pick they have. Let’s go back to the hypothetical example of every team having “the best” front office possible. You know by definition you cannot “steal” a player by being smarter than the other team, because everyone is equally smart… what you can do is lose a meaningless game at the end of the season, to make sure you pick one spot sooner, and are now able to increase the chances you get the player you want. That’s usually a smart move, not a dumb one. Being a good GM is all about seeing ahead of the curve, but it’s also about knowing how to follow a strategy, and part of that strategy is to maximise your advantages over your opponents (other teams). A higher pick helps do that, and if your team lacks the talent to make the playoffs anyway (because remember, finite talent in the NBA), it’s probably sensible to work towards that strategy, rather than spend a lot of money trying to move from being “bad” to “mediocre”.

The draft lottery is also the place where you get superstars in the NBA, and generally that’s how all recent champions (or top contenders) have been built. The Spurs got Duncan through the lottery, the Mavs got Dirk in the lottery (along with some of the other assets that they used to build the team over the years, which in turn were moved for other assets), the Thunder got their guys in the lottery, the Celtics got Pierce in the lottery, acquired Ray Allen with a lotto pick, and got KG for a package which included young guys (and a guy drafted 14th, so effectively the lottery). The Heat got Wade from the Lottery, and acquired Shaq for a package that included a lottery pick asset. The Bulls got Rose, Deng, Noah, etc, from the lottery, not to mention other assets they used to enhance the team. The Cavs and Magic, who each made the finals once and had some great runs, got their stars from the lottery. If the front offices of the Cavs and Magic hadn’t been so bad, those teams would have probably won titles too. Sure, the Heat were lucky to get Lebron and Bosh, but few teams can plan for that (and when they do, they can often miss out like the Spurs in 2003, or the Mavs recently did). The only real examples of champions (or almost champions) who built teams without the draft lottery are the Lakers and the Pistons. The Lakers had 2 stars force their way there in a way that would not be possible today. In today’s game Kobe’s bluff would have been called, and a higher team would have drafted him and held on to him, and more scouts would have seen him owing to the increased amount of high school scouting that exists in the modern NBA. Shaq would have been stuck on a proper rookie contract in today’s game, and would have been stuck with the Magic for 7-8 years, just like Lebron and Dwight were. Nor can most teams hope that an MVP calibre guy will force his way to their team because he wants to make movies and rap albums.

That leaves the Pistons, a team constructed on a series of unreplicatable flukes. A General Manager who proposes to construct a team “like the Pistons did” should be fired. It’s almost impossible. You’re relying on other teams totally mismanaging potential stars, nobody else picking up on it, and then the team giving them away to you because they are foolish (i.e. Ben Wallace and Billups), giving all-stars away to you for nothing (Sheed), trading you a young all-star for an aging has been for dumb reasons (Rip), and you lucking into the perfect guy to complement these players late in the 1st round. No GM can “plan” those circumstances, and we’ve seen that in recent years, where Joe Dumars has unsuccessfully tried to repeat his fluke model to no avail (because lightning rarely strikes the same place twice).

What are the alternative models like?
I’m going to leave aside Moreyball as requiring a thread of its own (though I think Morey is highly overrated), and focus on the alternative of the draft lottery, since most teams can’t plan on being a big market like LA or Miami, and since most other touted models are either bad (Isiah Thomas Knicks for instance), or not mutually exclusive (using advanced stats more). A common error is that fans point to some badly managed team, like say the Wolves or Kings, and say “see, the lotto doesn’t work”. That is to misunderstand the situation. No “model” is a guarantee of success, you still have to implement that model well. A team trying to use the (non) ‘Model’ of the Pacers who did it badly would suck too. Any model fails when done badly, and no model protects you from an incompetent front office. However one model greatly increases your chances of success, especially if you are a small market, and that’s building through the draft lottery. As I noted above, it’s how pretty much every recent champion or recent powerhouse was built (even if they used some of those lotto picks as assets to get veterans to round out the team). Guys you draft are also stuck with you for 7-8 years whether they like it or not, so you don’t have to worry about your location.

Moreover, a model using the draft lottery doesn’t necessarily mean you have to “lose on purpose”. The guys on the court will be trying to win as hard as they can if you do it right. Just avoid veterans, and let the young guys grow together, so the improvement comes from within (like we saw on the Thunder. They did badly with Durant early on, and got better every single year). There are many examples of successful “build through the draft” contenders, but virtually no teams who go from treadmill to contender without good lottery picks. Heck, the Pacers best guy is from the lottery, albeit the #10 pick. The Pacers aren’t an example either, since they’re not a contender, and there are almost no others examples in recent history. Look at the top 5 teams in the NBA right now, they all got to where they were by knowing when to “tank” a season or more. The Spurs, Heat, Thunder, Clippers and Memphis all got to where they are through the lottery. There was of course very good management in addition to the lottery (especially for the Spurs and Thunder), but they still needed the lottery to do it. If those teams had tried to add veterans and win a little more in key seasons they probably wouldn’t be where they are today. Better yet, even if a team is terribly managed (like the Paxson Cavs, or the Wolves, or the Magic) the lotto offers fans a way to succeed in spite of bad management. Eventually even the worst managed team (like the Wolves, Warriors or Clippers) can turn it around with some luck, this year the Wolves would probably have made the playoffs if not for all the injuries, and should be a good chance next year, and this is in spite of their terrible management. In the East they’d certainly make it. The Warriors decision to tank a little last year was crucial in netting them a huge building block going forward (whereas one spot lower would have left them with a much worse pick this year in a crappy draft).

Teams should not (and are not) trying to implement the “Pacer model” (which has little to show for it at this point). They are trying to implement the Spurs model, which is why so many people from the Spurs front office get hired by teams who want to improve their management. And it seems to work quite well. The Thunder got some of the top guys from the Spurs front office, and have been a model franchise. There are 4 other franchises whose top guys are from the Spurs front office- 3 are new, so we’ll await to see how they go (Orlando, Atlanta & Utah), and the last is the Hornets. So far it seems to be going pretty well. Orlando is going to rebuild through the draft like the Thunder did (and fans are turning up to games to support the process), the Hornets are already in the process of doing so (fans are thrilled that the front office wasn’t allowed to go for mediocrity like the Pacers did with the vetoed Paul trade, and instead got to tank for Anthony Davis), and Atlanta and Utah’s best assets are from the lottery as well; they could both consider tanking in the future as the means to make the transition to contender, depending on how the offseason goes of course.

Who is trying to do what you guys and the Pistons did? Loser teams like the Bucks. I promise you, their fans would give anything to be going in the direction of any one of those 6 franchises who are managed by former Spurs guys. Don’t believe me? Go to their message board, all of them want to tank, and hate their mediocre front office. The Pacers have done much better of course, but it’s very hard to construct a team like that, and even when you do well (like the Pacers), you almost always come out as not a contender. Nor have the Pacers been flawless in their management, the Kawhi trade looks pretty bad for them now, and in a few years it will look much worse. So far all the Pacers have to show for their efforts is their 2nd season above 500 in the last 7 years, and a win% this season and last that still isn’t any better than what the Hawks managed in recently (were the Hawks a model franchise to be emulated, or were they a team who was going to peak at the 2nd round, not unlike the Pacers?).

So yeh, enjoy your successes, but let’s not get carried away here, or misunderstand the Pacers situation.

Re: The General Manager Analysis Project

Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 3:07 pm
by jman2585
Rob Hennigan
Image
There is a shrine to Rob here that tracks all his moves if anyone wants more details:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1188445

Everyone mocked the idea of nobodies from the Spurs making good GM's... except that is what is happening in all the places Spurs front office guys have gone. We heard the same sort of commentators when Hennigan first arrived to Orlando: viewtopic.php?t=1200989&f=6 (I was going to post the article, but this came up on google first).

And Hennigan has turned out to be awesome, because you don't rise in the Spurs organisation unless you're frickin good.

Hennigan was hired on the 20th of June 2012. The decision to trade Dwight had been made, it was happening when he arrived. Hennigan couldn't change that, nor could he change the fact the Magic had put themselves in a position where they had virtually no leverage. What he could do, and did do, was insist on getting back Vucevic in the trade, who was the main peice obtained (not Affalo). I don't know if you've been following the Magic, by Vucevic looks like an awesome player to have obtained in such circumstances, the guy is currently putting up 12.4ppg, 11.5rpg on 522. FG%. He also got Affalo, who is a solid shooting guard, Harkless (who is a promising young player), and 4 future 1st rounders. That was a very smart trade in the circumstances (no leverage), and set the Magic up for rebuilding. He didn't do anything stupid (like say, trade for Iggy or Bynum, so the team could "win now", which is probably what win now GM's would have done).

He also just stole Tobias Harris from the Bucks for nothing. You clearly haven't been following this epic bungling (I recommend going to the Bucks board, where they're virtually unamimous in trashing Hammond for his idiocy), but since being traded to the Magic Harris (who is 20 years old) has been putting up 16-8 on good efficiency, while looking like he can play even better than that in stretches.