Super Ball Dominant Wings: 89 Jordan vs 10 Lebron
Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:06 am
Introduction
I've always wanted to take a deeper look into these two seasons. Comparison is inevitable (coincidentally both are 25 and are just coming off their top box-score production seasons), but I want to just get some discussion going.
We have Jordan's famous "Archangel" stretch in 89 following the March 8th loss to Boston (in which he did not play). And we have Lebron's similar stretch in 2010 following Mo Williams' injury in late January. Both guys basically took on super ball dominant roles (not necessarily just high USG%), and we saw monster assist numbers from both (in Jordan's case, big rebound numbers as well). How was the team performance affected? I've posted extensive data at the end of the post.
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Discussion
Jordan
Jordan sees his scoring rate actually dip a bit below Lebron's, with around the same relative TS%, but a significantly larger jump in AST%. The Bulls saw their offense jump from +1.5 in 57 games to +2.8 in 24 games. We see a slight decline in eFG%, a 1.5% rise in ORB% (Jordan's ORB% remained constant at 5.5% before and after), a 1.7% decline in TOV%, likely a byproduct of Jordan's increased playmaking (15% increase in AST%), and a major upward shift in free throw rate, which can also be explained by Jordan's increased playmaking. We know he was a strong interior passer, and creating high percentage shots at the basket leads to less creation responsibility for the finisher (low TO%) and a stronger probability of drawing the foul. Further, Jordan himself saw his FTA/FGA rate jump up from .431 to .470.
Roster consistency is present amongst starters/key players. Pre-Archangel, of a possible 57 games, we've got Pippen in 49, Grant in 56, and Paxson in 46. Under the Archangel offense, of a possible 24 games, we get 23 from Pippen, 22 from Grant, 23 from Cartwright, and 21 from Paxson. There's clearly weak spacing though outside of Paxson, and the introduction of Craig Hodges obviously makes an impact here. In 20 games Pre-Archangel without Hodges, we see a +0.8 offense, but in 36 games Pre-Archangel WITH him, Chicago's rocking a +2.0 offense, with a slight upward shift in eFG%, but while almost sustaining the same ORB level.
In 13 games under the Jordan Archangel Offense, without Hodges, Chicago is able to sustain a +2.1 offense (33.9% ORB%). With one major floor spacer, and strong emphasis on crashing the offensive glass, ball-dominant Jordan is able to run a pretty decent offense. Throw Hodges into the mix for 11 games, and Chicago's offense jumps to +3.7 (almost elite). There is a huge jump in eFG% (47.0 ->51.5), and the tepid offensive rebounding pace dulls down (28.8%). Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast. Imagine if he could have been working with the kind of spacing the Triangle afforded in his years with Jackson? Or the kind of 3 point shooting James has today?
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James
With James, we see similar shifts in production. Drop in scoring rate and efficiency (he was actually matching Jordan's pre-Archangel scoring rate before this shift, on 35% 3P shooting to boot), complemented by a jump in AST% and a drop in TOV%.
Cleveland's offense sees a MAJOR jump, shifting from +3.8 (elite) in the first 44 games with Lebron to a staggering +7.0 in the last 32 games with him. However, we also see a clear dropoff in defense, (-3.1 -> -1.6), though that can be somewhat attributed to the introduction of Jamison, and the inconsistent perimeter roster outside of Parker. Which brings to light the inconsistent roster overall; in these 32 games, this is the kind of minute breakdown we're looking at:
Getting back to the offense, what drives the shift is a clear jump in eFG% and a clear drop in TOV%. TOV% is largely going to be a result of increasing Lebron's ball dominance, which cuts the possession time of weaker ball-handlers/controllers, and allows others to be put into easier positions to score, while having to do less of the creation themselves (creation of high percentage shots at and closer to the basket, the same effect we saw with Jordan).
The eFG% jump would suggest that we may have also seen improved 3P shooting, but again, remember the inconsistent roster. 3PA goes from representing roughly 20% of all possessions to 23%, (18 3PA/G ->21 3PA/G), however, eFG% on 3s declines from 61.1% in the pre-PG stretch, to 53.7% in the PG stretch, despite overall eFG% rising from 53.1% to 54.3%. What that suggests is that Lebron's volume creation on 3s AND inside shots rose, but the Cavaliers were not capitalizing as well as they could have, due to circumstances that weren't necessarily in control. That makes the improvement/emphasis on inside scoring even more impressive and dramatic, and I'll have to dig a bit deeper to look for shifts in that regard. What I can point out, is that James' free throw rate jumped from an impressive .478 to a staggering .547, and yet on the team level there is virtually no shift in free throw rate. To me, that (and the drop in TOV%) may be an indication of lots of open shots created at the basket, with such little defensive pressure that free throw rate was actually declining.
Varejao/Hickson come to mind here, they were both highly effective finishers on the PnR with James. In this stretch, we see Varejao shoot 65.7% from the floor (9.1 pts/g, 67.0% TS, up from 8.4 pts/g, 55.6% TS ), and we see Hickson shoot 56.6% from the floor (10.7 pts/g, 59.0% TS, up from 6.6 pts/g, 56.9% TS).
I also want to discuss the introduction of Jamison here, who may or may not have been all that helpful in the offense, despite being a stretch 4. In 11 Lebron PG games without him the offense was at +8.7, (Shaq played all 11 G), but in 21 Lebron PG games with him, the offense dropped to +6 (with Shaq playing in only 4 G). The presence of Shaq as a post/finishing threat may have been more helpful than the spacing effect that Jamison yielded, and the defensive woes of playing them together are also clear.
So what we're considering, is that give James an effective PnR finisher, and provide any sort of spacing and you're likely to get a strong offense. Have two of them, and provide a bunch of inconsistent above average outside shooters, and a half present low-post presence and you can probably yield an elite offense. Add in a second creator and consistent elite outside shooting (2013 Miami), and what could you get?
----------------------------------
I plan on adding more thoughts/data here, and I'm considering throwing 2009 Dwyane Wade into the mix. He's got a slightly shorter stretch, but one that probably makes both of these pale in comparison.
----------------------------------
Data
----------------------------------
1989 Chicago Bulls
Four Factors
Michael Jordan
----------------------------------
2010 Cleveland Cavaliers
Four Factors
Lebron James
----------------------------------
2009 Miami Heat
Four Factors
Dwyane Wade
I've always wanted to take a deeper look into these two seasons. Comparison is inevitable (coincidentally both are 25 and are just coming off their top box-score production seasons), but I want to just get some discussion going.
We have Jordan's famous "Archangel" stretch in 89 following the March 8th loss to Boston (in which he did not play). And we have Lebron's similar stretch in 2010 following Mo Williams' injury in late January. Both guys basically took on super ball dominant roles (not necessarily just high USG%), and we saw monster assist numbers from both (in Jordan's case, big rebound numbers as well). How was the team performance affected? I've posted extensive data at the end of the post.
----------------------------------
Discussion
Jordan
Jordan sees his scoring rate actually dip a bit below Lebron's, with around the same relative TS%, but a significantly larger jump in AST%. The Bulls saw their offense jump from +1.5 in 57 games to +2.8 in 24 games. We see a slight decline in eFG%, a 1.5% rise in ORB% (Jordan's ORB% remained constant at 5.5% before and after), a 1.7% decline in TOV%, likely a byproduct of Jordan's increased playmaking (15% increase in AST%), and a major upward shift in free throw rate, which can also be explained by Jordan's increased playmaking. We know he was a strong interior passer, and creating high percentage shots at the basket leads to less creation responsibility for the finisher (low TO%) and a stronger probability of drawing the foul. Further, Jordan himself saw his FTA/FGA rate jump up from .431 to .470.
Roster consistency is present amongst starters/key players. Pre-Archangel, of a possible 57 games, we've got Pippen in 49, Grant in 56, and Paxson in 46. Under the Archangel offense, of a possible 24 games, we get 23 from Pippen, 22 from Grant, 23 from Cartwright, and 21 from Paxson. There's clearly weak spacing though outside of Paxson, and the introduction of Craig Hodges obviously makes an impact here. In 20 games Pre-Archangel without Hodges, we see a +0.8 offense, but in 36 games Pre-Archangel WITH him, Chicago's rocking a +2.0 offense, with a slight upward shift in eFG%, but while almost sustaining the same ORB level.
In 13 games under the Jordan Archangel Offense, without Hodges, Chicago is able to sustain a +2.1 offense (33.9% ORB%). With one major floor spacer, and strong emphasis on crashing the offensive glass, ball-dominant Jordan is able to run a pretty decent offense. Throw Hodges into the mix for 11 games, and Chicago's offense jumps to +3.7 (almost elite). There is a huge jump in eFG% (47.0 ->51.5), and the tepid offensive rebounding pace dulls down (28.8%). Give Jordan some decent (at best) spacing, and allow him to dominate the ball and he's basically going to give you elite offense with any sort of cast. Imagine if he could have been working with the kind of spacing the Triangle afforded in his years with Jackson? Or the kind of 3 point shooting James has today?
----------------------------------
James
With James, we see similar shifts in production. Drop in scoring rate and efficiency (he was actually matching Jordan's pre-Archangel scoring rate before this shift, on 35% 3P shooting to boot), complemented by a jump in AST% and a drop in TOV%.
Cleveland's offense sees a MAJOR jump, shifting from +3.8 (elite) in the first 44 games with Lebron to a staggering +7.0 in the last 32 games with him. However, we also see a clear dropoff in defense, (-3.1 -> -1.6), though that can be somewhat attributed to the introduction of Jamison, and the inconsistent perimeter roster outside of Parker. Which brings to light the inconsistent roster overall; in these 32 games, this is the kind of minute breakdown we're looking at:
Spoiler:
Getting back to the offense, what drives the shift is a clear jump in eFG% and a clear drop in TOV%. TOV% is largely going to be a result of increasing Lebron's ball dominance, which cuts the possession time of weaker ball-handlers/controllers, and allows others to be put into easier positions to score, while having to do less of the creation themselves (creation of high percentage shots at and closer to the basket, the same effect we saw with Jordan).
The eFG% jump would suggest that we may have also seen improved 3P shooting, but again, remember the inconsistent roster. 3PA goes from representing roughly 20% of all possessions to 23%, (18 3PA/G ->21 3PA/G), however, eFG% on 3s declines from 61.1% in the pre-PG stretch, to 53.7% in the PG stretch, despite overall eFG% rising from 53.1% to 54.3%. What that suggests is that Lebron's volume creation on 3s AND inside shots rose, but the Cavaliers were not capitalizing as well as they could have, due to circumstances that weren't necessarily in control. That makes the improvement/emphasis on inside scoring even more impressive and dramatic, and I'll have to dig a bit deeper to look for shifts in that regard. What I can point out, is that James' free throw rate jumped from an impressive .478 to a staggering .547, and yet on the team level there is virtually no shift in free throw rate. To me, that (and the drop in TOV%) may be an indication of lots of open shots created at the basket, with such little defensive pressure that free throw rate was actually declining.
Varejao/Hickson come to mind here, they were both highly effective finishers on the PnR with James. In this stretch, we see Varejao shoot 65.7% from the floor (9.1 pts/g, 67.0% TS, up from 8.4 pts/g, 55.6% TS ), and we see Hickson shoot 56.6% from the floor (10.7 pts/g, 59.0% TS, up from 6.6 pts/g, 56.9% TS).
I also want to discuss the introduction of Jamison here, who may or may not have been all that helpful in the offense, despite being a stretch 4. In 11 Lebron PG games without him the offense was at +8.7, (Shaq played all 11 G), but in 21 Lebron PG games with him, the offense dropped to +6 (with Shaq playing in only 4 G). The presence of Shaq as a post/finishing threat may have been more helpful than the spacing effect that Jamison yielded, and the defensive woes of playing them together are also clear.
So what we're considering, is that give James an effective PnR finisher, and provide any sort of spacing and you're likely to get a strong offense. Have two of them, and provide a bunch of inconsistent above average outside shooters, and a half present low-post presence and you can probably yield an elite offense. Add in a second creator and consistent elite outside shooting (2013 Miami), and what could you get?
----------------------------------
I plan on adding more thoughts/data here, and I'm considering throwing 2009 Dwyane Wade into the mix. He's got a slightly shorter stretch, but one that probably makes both of these pale in comparison.
----------------------------------
Data
Spoiler:
----------------------------------
1989 Chicago Bulls
Spoiler:
Four Factors
Spoiler:
Michael Jordan
Spoiler:
----------------------------------
2010 Cleveland Cavaliers
Spoiler:
Four Factors
Spoiler:
Lebron James
Spoiler:
----------------------------------
2009 Miami Heat
Spoiler:
Four Factors
Spoiler:
Dwyane Wade
Spoiler:
