It's really hard for me to judge Wilt. I've gone through Newell's book on post play, and have taken some notes. Still have to give it another few reads/skims, to get a better idea behind some of the fundamentals.
As far as his defense is concerned, Wilt is potentially one of the GOAT rim protectors, but I have a few concerns regarding his lateral quickness, recovery speed, willingness to venture far from the basket, and propensity to bite on pump fakes. Some of these might be exaggerated, but I'd need to very closely watch the tape to get a better idea.
The two things that bother me about Wilt's low post scoring arsenal are the two shots for which he's the most noted...the finger roll and the fadeaway. The finger roll is fine at times if there are no defenders nearby, but in general you're better off with a reverse layup, or finishing with a dunk, to prevent it from being blocked.
Now, the fadeaway...even if these two quotes by Nate are an exaggeration, I can't imagine they're very far off. Wilt went to this shot too much:
SLAM: Who was the toughest center for you to guard?
NT: Kareem had more of a repertoire and was harder to stop. He had a little more versatility when he set up on the floor. Wilt liked the left side, but Jabbar set up on either side. Wilt would rely on the fade-away 70 percent of time; Kareem’s hook was in the same range. I couldn’t stop him from shooting the hook; I could make him take awkward hooks or baseline jumpers. You really couldn’t keep Wilt from taking the fade-away, but you could try to him shoot it a step further out. He was a great fade-away shooter. If you got in close, and he had you out of position, then you could foul him and save yourself one point.
source:
http://www.slamonline.com/nba/original- ... defense/2/“Wilt was a giant. But 60 percent of his points came on fadeaways. He was a powerful man who didn't always play that way,” said Thurmond, who does community-relations work for the Warriors and owns a barbecue restaurant in San Francisco.
source:
https://www.toledoblade.com/Opinion/200 ... -Wilt.htmlMechanically, my main issue with Wilt's fadeaway is he seems to release the shot after he's reached the apex of his jump. What does this mean? Well, the release point isn't as high as possible, obviously. Also, the more you drift from your stance, the more off balance you're going to be with your shot, and the more you need to adjust in midair.
Now, the problem is, Wilt's FG% numbers weren't incredibly high (at or near the top of the league, but not at the same level of some other all-time low post centers). So at least one of these shots was ineffective. Possibly both, since they comprised the lion's share of his attempts from the field.
lorak did some research on Wilt's playoff scoring vs Boston and other teams, when compared to the other dominant offensive talents of his era:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1270141I have to do more research certainly, but I think the lack of shooters to space the floor before he was traded was a huge issue. This leaves us with 5 seasons to evaluate him, that I'll consider his "prime" for the purpose of the thread:
1965 (post-trade) & 1966 - These are the only two seasons (well, really a season of a half) we have of Wilt playing in a volume scoring role with shooters. More floor spacing opened up the floor.
1967 & 1968 - Hannum installs a primitive triple post offense:
Code: Select all
Possessions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJjBDUhbBcs
4:10
5:45
7:28
8:51
9:24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiVAFBZzTac
2:14
2:42
3:14
3:35
5:04
5:42
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K9RJXAdZYw
2:08
4:58
6:59
8:50
9:09
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHXG3koetzA
2:02
8:02
9:05
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1myFngKMeb4
0:58
3:11
3:44
4:52
7:14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMYCEg9GK5Q
0:25
0:49
1:22
1:40
2:05
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zda_xvx1eU
0:01
0:16
0:32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjVjBP78BZw
0:10
0:36
0:58
1:16
Obviously not as sophisticated as the Triangle, but here's a quote from Wayne Lynch's Season of the 76ers:
In fact, Dr. Jack Ramsay— now a popular ESPN TV and Radio NBA basketball analyst —says the 76ers’ offense was very similar to the triangle style perfected by the Bulls.
“It was basically a low post offense, had a lot of ball movement , not unlike what the Bulls did,” explained Dr. Jack.
“Set up the triangle with your post player high or low,” Ramsay explained. “So you have a post player, a wing player, and a perimeter player in the triangle on one side and the other two players on the weak side.
“The ball gets moved to the reverse side, and a new triangle is set over there. Ball goes to the post, gets action as the two perimeter players work off the post man.
“Larry Costello used it in Milwaukee with Alcindor and Oscar.”
1969 - VbK and the high post experiment failed miserably. Not sure how somebody didn't see it (though I guess VbK did, because he wasn't in favor of the trade), but a low post isolation player (Wilt) and a guy who drives to the basket from anywhere on the floor (Baylor) won't do well together, unless you're especially creative.
Now, here are the relative ORtg/DRtg numbers for those seasons (from B-R, unless otherwise noted; more negative is better for defense):
65: 0.9 / 0.7 after trade (0.6 / 1.1 prior to trade) *both of these calculations based on splits from schedules*
66: 0.4 / -3.4
67: 5.4 / -2.2
68: 1.3 / -5.6 (2.6 / -1.6 the year after)
69: 3.0 / -0.6 (4.9 / 0.2 the year before)
In the playoffs, calculating pace using same methodology on B-R; for Wilt's teams in these five years:
Code: Select all
Year Pace lgOD PTS/G OPP/G ORtg avgD DRtg avgO nO nD
1965 114.3 93.6 111.8 111.6 4.2 -5.1 4.0 -0.1 9.3 4.2
1966 117.5 94.9 104.0 113.6 -6.4 -6.6 1.8 -2.6 0.2 4.4
1967 125.5 96.1 121.7 112.3 0.9 -2.2 -6.6 0.8 3.1 -7.4
1968 119.2 96.8 113.7 112.8 -1.4 -2.5 -2.2 0.0 1.1 -2.2
1969 110.6 95.5 103.7 99.1 -1.7 -3.2 -5.9 0.8 1.4 -6.7
Most columns should be obvious, but of the rest: avgD is the average relative defense faced, avgO is the average relative offense faced, and the last two columns are just the differences ORtg-avgD and DRtg-avgO respectively.
What do these columns tell us about these five playoff runs?
65 - Great offensively, poor defensively.
66 - Average offensively, poor defensively.
67 - Good offensively, great defensively.
68 - Above average offensively, above average defensively.
69 - Above average offensively, great defensively.
Now, weird things happened during three of those playoffs runs:
66 - Down 1-2 to Boston, Wilt skips the practice before game 4 because he's too tired, and disappeared before the practice in game 5.
68 - The MLK assassination occurred, so this was a weird series. Wilt didn't get many touches in the second half of game 7, and didn't take a single shot. From my understanding, there's speculation that both Wilt and Hannum knew they weren't going to still be in Philly the next year, and mailed in the series.
69 - The last few minutes of the game are on YouTube so you can judge for yourself, but for whatever reason, Wilt left the game, and was never put back in. Whether this was his decision of VbK's, we'll never know.
Even though 69 is talked about the most, I think 66 and 68 are much bigger problems, since they persisted throughout the postseason, as opposed to just an isolated event (again, the 69 Lakers were a very good playoff defense). nO and nD are makeshift stats, but I think they paint a pretty accurate picture from the recaps.
Some other notes:
1) By all accounts a very good passer, extremely capable of hitting cutters. I need to see more tape of him kicking out of double teams to shooters, though.
2) Very durable in his prime. He's going to play a ton of games. Coaches won't play him as many minutes, obviously, but he's going to be a workhorse for sure.
3) Lastly, there's the free throw thing. Definitely a massive issue. You don't want Wilt to be in a position to be fouled, so you probably need someone else to close out games.
My conclusion? Well, I need to read more from Newell and take more notes, and watch the video in the OP several more times. I also need to watch more tape of Kareem (and rewatch as much as I can of Shaq/Hakeem/Duncan).
He could very well be in the conversation for or the clear cut best player in the game. On the other hand, his low post scoring might not translate, his passing out of doubles to shooters might not be where it needs to be, and defensively, the issues I brought up might be legitimate problems instead of hearsay/speculation. Either way though, this isn't something where you split the difference...I think it's one extreme or another.
Sorry for the rant, just my $.02.
