Rules: Vote for 1 player. You may change your vote as consensus emerges but if so, go back and EDIT YOUR ORIGINAL POST. Votes without analysis will not be counted. If, after 2 days, there is not a majority consensus, the top; 2 nominees will have a 1 day runoff election to determine the spot on our list. NBA/ABA only, no college, international play, ABL, NBL, BAA or other pre-NBA play considered.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:30 pm
by ThaRegul8r
Why are there two threads?
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:35 pm
by tsherkin
Ach, who cares? pen will clean up soon enough.
So I wonder, are you guys going to immediately start voting for Shaq again? I wonder, against whom? Magic and Bird?
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:37 pm
by Greatness
tsherkin wrote:Ach, who cares? pen will clean up soon enough.
So I wonder, are you guys going to immediately start voting for Shaq again? I wonder, against whom? Magic and Bird?
I think there's a few guys for consideration here. Unfortunately I don't think Bird will be one of them but #5 could go to Shaq, Magic, Hakeem, Duncan, or even LeBron. I'm gonna wait to see some opinions before I vote.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:37 pm
by Texas Chuck
tsherkin wrote: So I wonder, are you guys going to immediately start voting for Shaq again? I wonder, against whom? Magic and Bird?
Well the wise among us will be voting for Duncan......j/k
But yeah Magic, Shaq, Dream maybe Duncan, maybe Bird, maybe Lebron, clearly KG already has his supporters should all be among the more serious candidates.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:43 pm
by ceiling raiser
I think this slot is mostly about the big men (I don't think all that much separates these four from Kareem/Wilt). I have couple questions in mind for each guy:
Hakeem:
1) When do we believe his offensive prime ended? When did his defensive prime end? 2) How would he change his game today (if at all)?
Shaq:
1) How would he change his game today (if at all)? 2) How much would he thrive in a 4-out-1-in offense at his peak? Did the triangle hold him back or help him more in comparison?
KG:
1) How big a deal is the ability and willingness to consistently create offense from the low post? 2) What kind of player do we view KG as if he's in his Boston role (08 and 09 pre-injury) for his entire career?
Duncan:
1) How do we feel about his mobility defensively? 2) When do we feel his offensive and defensive primes began and ended?
If any of these questions are addressed in this thread, it would help tremendously in deciding for whom I'll vote.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:43 pm
by colts18
I'm voting for Shaq. He is the best playoff performer, best finals performer, and most clutch player remaining. He was the clear alpha dog on his teams. He was the best player on his team every year from 93-05.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:44 pm
by tsherkin
Greatness wrote:I think there's a few guys for consideration here. Unfortunately I don't think Bird will be one of them but #5 could go to Shaq, Magic, Hakeem, Duncan, or even LeBron. I'm gonna wait to see some opinions before I vote.
As much as I'm a huge Hakeem fan, I don't think he should be a top 5 guy. Some of that is championship bias, some of that is peak versus body of work, some of that is the rest of the field at this level, etc. I'm comfortable with him in the bottom half of the top 10 on a list like this. Lebron, not feeling it just yet either but he's got more traction in that respect than Hakeem, IMO.
Texas Chuck wrote:
tsherkin wrote: So I wonder, are you guys going to immediately start voting for Shaq again? I wonder, against whom? Magic and Bird?
Well the wise among us will be voting for Duncan......j/k
But yeah Magic, Shaq, Dream maybe Duncan, maybe Bird, maybe Lebron, clearly KG already has his supporters should all be among the more serious candidates.
Duncan's another fantastic candidate. I treat him as his career happened, but with at least 2 DPOYs that the NBA robbed him of through sheer voter idiocy.... 5 titles, couple of MVPs, strong production (especially when you filter for scoring bias), ATG defender, good playoff performer, etc, etc. He passes the acid test for sure, and it's right at the point where no one else really screams out as a superior option. Peak Shaq was definitely a better player, but body of work, health, contender-status longevity, lots of interesting counters.
This will be an interesting discussion.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:47 pm
by tsherkin
fpliii wrote:Hakeem:
2) How would he change his game today (if at all)?
Not a shred.
Shaq:
1) How would he change his game today (if at all)? 2) How much would he thrive in a 4-out-1-in offense at his peak? Did the triangle hold him back or help him more in comparison?
1) Probably not much at all.
2) It really opened up things for him as a playmaker; 4 out worked really well for him as an old man in Phoenix. As a younger player, he'd kill it with that kind of spacing and passing.
KG:
1) How big a deal is the ability and willingness to consistently create offense from the low post? 2) What kind of player do we view KG as if he's in his Boston role (08 and 09 pre-injury) for his entire career?
1) Not, really. Consistency of offense is more important than style. Can you get a good look that you hit for acceptable efficiency, that's all that really matters.
2) Do you mean with the same limited minutes and such, or just stylistically on offense, projecting out his scoring volume with the same efficiency?
Duncan:
1) How do we feel about his mobility defensively?
Hasn't been an issue as an old man; wouldn't be in his youth.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:49 pm
by 90sAllDecade
*UPDATED POST*
I vote Hakeem Olajuwon and will go in-depth why he's a better combined overall individual two way player than anyone else considering team support, competition and all context.
When you hold a microscope to these players, Hakeem is actually the true GOAT center and big man all time imo despite these long held media influenced beliefs.
Basketball has always been a center's game from 50's in Mikan, 60's Wilt, Russell, 70's-80's Kareem, Walton, 90s Hakeem & 00's Shaq. Dominant two way bigs have always been more impactful than wing players on the whole. They are extremely rare, can be offensive and defensive anchors and whenever a GM is given a choice of what to start a franchise with a dominant big is the #1 choice.
Hakeem Olajuwon is the consensus greatest two way big of all time and imo the GOAT center
No wing player in NBA history, Jordan, Magic included, has ever won a championship without an all star or HOF talent versus bigs. Hakeem is the only player in NBA history to win a championship without an all star, HOF talent or elite/GOAT level coach. Wings need more help, bigs can do more with less because they are historically more impactful overall. Dr. James Naismith made basketball's scoring mechanism ten feet off the ground; height, shooting, coordination and explosiveness are traditionally king in this game and likely always will be
If you were to create the closest perfect shooting guard by combining skills with no weaknesses to date, it would be Jordan. If you were to create the closest perfect center with skills and no weaknesses it's Hakeem Olajuwon.
He combines every quality all the greatest have and is the greatest playoff center of all time:
He has playoff offense that's comparable to KAJ and Shaq:
Hakeem is the greatest player in NBA history with the lowest team support and highest competition. This shows just how good he had to be versus the others who had outstanding high team support and lower competition advantages.
Team Support Comparison
Jordan: 15 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x5 ( x6, if you consider 91' Pippen, which I do personally) Two All Star player: x0 (x2 depending how you view Rodman) Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x2 HOF Coach x7
*if you count Tex Winter, architect of the Triangle Offense, Jordan had two HOF coaches at once
Kareem: 19 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x15 Two All Star player: x7 Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x7 HOF Coach: x8
Larry Bird: 13 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x13 Two All Star player: x10 Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x0 HOF Coach x0
LeBron: 10 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x6 Two All Star player: x4 (so far) Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x0 HOF Coach x0
Magic: 12 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x11 Two All Star player: x7 Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x7 HOF Coach x9
Russell: 12 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x12 Two All Star player: x11 Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x9 HOF Coach x9
Hakeem: 17 years Years with 1 All Star Player: x7 Two All Star player: x1 Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x0 HOF Coach x0
In his prime (age 23-33) Hakeem dominated or outplayed his HOF center peers in the playoffs throughout his career.
Hakeem played PF while Sampson guarded Kareem. Kareem's numbers are misleading though, 2nd year Hakeem destroyed the Lakers PF and was killing old Kareem, Lakers PFs and everyone else on the front-line on the glass and running the floor. The lesser talented Rockets beat the 62 win defending champion Lakers without HCA (Was that a tough former champion the Rockets beat?)
They wanted to keep both big men out of foul trouble until game 4 I believe when they put KAJ on him and Hakeem starts dominating him in their very few head to head plays that series. KAJ was old and Hakeem was a 2nd year player, but throughout their prime careers Hakeem had a better peak, was a better rebounder, defender, shot blocker and stealer with comparable offense in the playoffs. KAJ would also get outplayed by HOF peers in the playoffs. Olajuwon was also mentally tougher with less help and better competition.
I can provide a link for people to watch the series, there is no doubt who the dominant player was. Here's the highlights for an idea.
The Rockets faced a team and frontline that is argued as the best of all time and 2nd year Hakeem dominated Parish and anyone who guarded him. He undressed Parish on both sides of the ball, while Sampson guarded McHale at PF. The Rockets got beat handily and simply were out matched talent wise. Only two players dominated indivdiually against that Boston defense and team: Michael Jordan and Olajuwon.
Shaq held his own, but his turnovers, Hakeem was more impactful during crucial times and as a team defender; and the more talented, 57 win Magic lost in a sweep with HCA against a against the 47 win sixth seeded Rockets weighs the scales in Olajwon's favor imo.
Arguably the greatest frontline in NBA history (86' Celtics) and one of the greatest modern defensive cast (90's Knicks) couldn't even stop prime Olajuwon.
Shaq and Duncan however played worse against historic caliber defenses in the playoffs.
I can't say Ben outplayed Shaq offensively, but throughout Ben's prime career in the playoffs he's been troublesome for both Shaq and Duncan.
Ben, a center who is a potential HOFer, has consistently beaten Shaq in the playoffs and is 14-8 against him all time. His team beat him in the NBA finals and have beaten Shaq 3-1 while Shaq team's having HCA every time except once and very talented rosters. At this age (31-34) Hakeem was much better comparatively against tougher competition.
Look at how every time they played H2H, Ben's team usually won in the playoffs:
Ben's had better TS% although his rebounding was a little less and the Spurs won (the series went 7 games), Duncan had very good rebounding but played worse offensively against Ben and the Pistons comparatively. Compared to the defenses Hakeem dominated, he was better comparatively.
Hakeem vs Shaq 3 year peak & Defensive Comparison:
Spoiler:
Three year Peaks: Hakeem 92'-95' vs Shaq 99'-02'
Regular Season
Hakeem TS% .568 Shaq TS% .580
Almost a wash with Shaq having better TS% and a small rebounding & point per game edge, but Hakeem has a tiny passing edge, better blocks, steals and slightly more turnovers.
Hakeem was far and away the dominant defensive player in his peak, winning Defensive Player of the year two years in a row and came in third the last year. Shaq never won one but did come in second the first year.
(Edit: I hashed their defense without accolades later, since they can be bad indicators.)
Playoffs
Hakeem TS% .564 Shaq TS% .562
Shaq had a clear rebounding edge and slightly less turnovers, but Hakeem had slightly better TS%, better passing, steals, blocks and played tougher competition with less help. As well as his peak defensive playoffs.
If you combine their offensive and defensive peaks, it seems Shaq had a slightly better single year and Hakeem had a better peak years overall in total impact.
Defense Shaq 99'-02' vs. Hakeem 92'-95'
Hakeem Regular Season
Def. Reb: 9.0 DRB% 24.2 Blks: 3.8 Steals: 1.8
Team Opp ppg Rank: 3rd (93'), 5th (94'), 14th (95') Team Drtg rank: 2nd (94'), 3rd (93'), 12th (95')
Shaq Regular Season
Def. Reb: 8.5 DRB% 23.9 Blks: 2.6 Steals: 0.6
Team Opp ppg Rank: 6th (00'), 9th (02'), 23rd (01') Team Drtg rank: 1st (00'), 7th (02'), 21st (01')
Hakeem Playoffs
Def. Reb: 8.7 DRB% 22.2 Blks: 3.7 Steals: 1.5
Team Opp ppg Rank: 3rd (93'), 7th (94'), 12th (95') Team Drtg rank: 3rd (94'), 6th (93'), 9th (95')
Shaq Playoffs
Def. Reb: 9.7 DRB% 25.5 Blks: 2.4 Steals: 0.5
Team Opp ppg Rank: 3rd (01'), 7th (02'), 15th (00') Team Drtg rank: 1st (01'), 7th (02'), 13th (00')
And to help account for teammate help or hindrance and pace for Drtg.
So not only was Hakeem better in just about every defensive category, he also had less defensive help than Shaq and also faced tougher competition.
Hakeem vs Duncan:
Spoiler:
Career Numbers Regular Season: Hakeem vs Duncan:
Hakeem
Duncan
So, despite the fact that Duncan hasn't played until the age of 39 yet, Hakeem still has better numbers for his career even in the regular season.
Hakeem is a better individual offensive player as a scorer, has better TS%, is a better stealer, shot blocker not to mention just an overall better defensive player. Duncan will also likely get worse statistically as he ages to 39 and over, bringing these numbers down.
I consider Duncan a better rebounder (his 0.5 passing advantage is enhanced by teammates and Pops system imo), but if you want to be literal on "what actually happened" then they are dead even rebounders and assists are a wash (but I look at advanced percentage and teams support as well)
Well, how about what actually happened individually in the playoffs?
Playoff Career Stats: Hakeem vs Duncan:
Hakeem
Duncan
Well, based on actual numbers for their entire playoff careers Hakeem is still a better offensive player as a scorer, better TS%, stealer, shot blocker and better all around defensive player as well. Rebound and assists are a wash and this doesn't include team support, competition and that Hakeem is a better athlete than Duncan.
So not only does Hakeem have a better peak and is a better athlete; he has a better prime, and also is a better regular season & playoff performer individually over their entire careers.
Will be listening first and foremost before making my selection. Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan and Magic are on my mind here.
Would really like to see the Magic bus pick up
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:51 pm
by Notanoob
I'm probably voting for Shaq here, but no LeBron fpliii? You have to start talking about him around now.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:52 pm
by ceiling raiser
Thanks for the quick responses.
tsherkin wrote:2) Do you mean with the same limited minutes and such, or just stylistically on offense, projecting out his scoring volume with the same efficiency?
Stylistically, mostly. Projecting not just his scoring volume, but his overall role across his career (though the role was slightly different in 08 and 09-pre injury, he seemed to be more of a clear-cut complementary scorer the second year). I don't think his minutes would be limited at first, though that could be a consideration.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:54 pm
by PCProductions
My vote for #5 of all time: Shaq
I voted him in for #4, so I guess he falls to #5, now. I'm pretty surprised to hear that Wilt after years of exposure and a steady decline in favor was able to still rank as highly as #4. That discussion could have lasted a lot longer than the allotted time, too. However, Wilt won fairly and deservedly given how the Shaq votes were mostly a unity of "anti-Wilt" people who originally voted for guys like Duncan, Garnett, Hakeem, etc.
To reiterate my core criteria that went into my vote for Shaq at #4, it was a combination of both statistical and individual accomplishments as well as undeniable in-a-vacuum greatness. With his competition being Duncan, Garnett and Hakeem, I simply felt more certain of his greatness and individual dominance and was voting for whom I felt the least uncomfortable giving that spot to, as weird as that may sound.
With Garnett, there's too many "what if" years in his prime that I myself am certain was the result of all-time-putrid supporting casts. Duncan, however, is the other side of that coin; it's really, really hard to extrapolate his greatness from the picturesque career that is playing for one, all time great coach for its entirety as well as being in a culture of sacrifice-for-greater-good and selflessness. Hakeem is somewhat of a statistical enigma in many ways, and just can't beat Shaq with the uncertainty that he holds.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:57 pm
by penbeast0
Any of our historians feel comfortable making a case yet for Mikan?
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 9:58 pm
by ceiling raiser
Notanoob wrote:I'm probably voting for Shaq here, but no LeBron fpliii? You have to start talking about him around now.
I'm not sure. I admittedly do have a tremendous bias towards bigs, so it's possible I really should be considering him and a few others. My biggest questions for the four non-bigs at this slot:
LeBron - How do we feel about his role this year (playing more off ball spotting up/cutting/setting up early in the post, though Miami went away from it in the playoffs)? Regular season defensive intensity aside, would we have preferred this year's role the past couple of years in Miami?
Bird - How big a weapon would the three be for him today? Would he be a stretch 4 today? Which PFs are a bad matchup for him defensively? I would ask about whether the back injury would be as big a concern for him with today's medicine, but someone recently noted in a thread that the problems would likely still exist.
Magic - Not so much questions, but I need to watch more tape on him before Nixon was traded. There were some great responses in a thread recently.
Oscar - How do we feel about his scoring skillset? Does he have three-point range today? How do we feel about his defense?
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 10:01 pm
by ThaRegul8r
fpliii wrote:Bird - How big a weapon would the three be for him today?
I couldn't find the Drive quote, which is aggravating to me, so evidently it was among the stuff I lost. I'll probably go out today and reacquire it and post it up.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 10:12 pm
by ceiling raiser
ThaRegul8r wrote:
fpliii wrote:Bird - How big a weapon would the three be for him today?
I couldn't find the Drive quote, which is aggravating to me, so evidently it was among the stuff I lost. I'll probably go out today and reacquire it and post it up.
No worries. I just took pictures of the pages. Too much to type right now, but I'll get to it eventually.
Here's link (8 pages total) in case anybody is interested in reading:
Some of it covers the 3pt contests too, but it's pretty informative, if you wanna get an idea of the mindset of a guy who came into the league the same year the 3 was introduced.
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 10:13 pm
by colts18
Shaq's postseason numbers are actually underrated. According to Elgee, Shaq played the hardest postseason defensive competition among star players during his prime.
PS Prime Avg. Opp Drtg ▾ Shaquille O’Neal 101.9 Kobe Bryant 102.6 Kevin Garnett 103.5 Tim Duncan 103.7 Dwyane Wade 103.7 Karl Malone 103.9 Dirk Nowitzki 103.9 Steve Nash 103.9 LeBron James 104.4 Michael Jordan 105 Larry Bird 105.5 Charles Barkley 105.8 Hakeem Olajuwon 105.8 David Robinson 106.5 Magic Johnson 106.7
His normalized prime playoff numbers would be 27.3 PPG on .582 TS%
Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5
Posted: Tue Jul 8, 2014 10:14 pm
by Jaivl
I don't have much time these days (for the next couple of weeks or so), so I'm maybe going to miss a few votes, and don't go deep enough in my analysis when I vote. Sorry about that.
My vote for nº5: Tim Duncan
Hakeem and Shaq have better peaks, and more impact on defense/offense respectively. But Timmy is the more consistent player over the years, and I feel he has the better prime of all three. Don't value much team results, but the fact that Duncan was capable of winning with multiple roles (leading the offense, leading the defense or both) shows his versatility. Duncan's post-prime impact on defense is what tilts the scale imo. Hakeem didn't show that type of impact late in his career (according to AcrossTheCourt's RAPM studies), neither did Shaq.
