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RealGM Top 100 List #6

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1334350

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RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:03 pm
by penbeast0
Rules: Vote for 1 player. You may change your vote as consensus emerges but if so, go back and EDIT YOUR ORIGINAL POST. Votes without analysis will not be counted. If, after 2 days, there is not a majority consensus, the top; 2 nominees will have a 1 day runoff election to determine the spot on our list. NBA/ABA only, no college, international play, ABL, NBL, BAA or other pre-NBA play considered.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:05 pm
by ceiling raiser
Hakeem is my pick again (but I'm open to Shaq, KG, and others). Fortunately, I'll have more time to watch tape and read up on him. My post from the last thread with reasoning:

fpliii wrote:Hakeem is my vote as well. I've been watching as much tape as I can of his playoffs post-86 run and pre-peak, and he seems incredibly active defensively. Posts by fatal9, 90salldecade, and others have been very helpful in fleshing out Hakeem's pre-peak years. I feel like I have a pretty decent sense of where his game was at for those seasons. Regarding his "peak" play, there's not much to say. His rebounding wasn't as impressive as it was in the preceding seasons, and while it seems (need to watch more regular season games) he's not as active consistently on the defensive end as he was in the 80s, his floor game is very disciplined. Not much wasted motion, and he was a threat to every player on the floor, for every possession.

I'm not sure where I'd place his peak defensively, but it probably would be a few years removed from his offensive peak (which, for the record, was certainly enabled by Olajuwon's renewed commitment and Rudy T's offensive philosophies and schemes). Dipper 13's breakdown was a huge help, and allowed me to skim through games again, with some datapoints to keep in mind. Hakeem was tremendous a in the post and with his midrange jumper, two shots that will generally be there against top playoff defenses (trainwreckog left an impression on me a few months ago with this discussion, from a game theoretic POV it makes sense), and Hakeem was a great passer so you can't key in on him too much. As tsherkin said earlier in this thread, I don't think Hakeem would have to change a thing today.

I considered KG at this spot (and probably will continue to do so in the next thread), because of the strong RAPM argument and some of the points ElGee made a few pages ago (I think it is indeed possible that KG had a superior defensive floor game to Olajuwon, but I need to watch a ton more tape to get an idea). I would definitely like to see RAPM numbers for 01 and 02 produced from complete datasets (since at the very least, we know J.E.'s missing chunks of the first couple of seasons, possibly more); if someone is interested in parsing the play-by-plays to produce complete matchup files for their RAPM calculations, it would be an incredible asset to the community. :) Duncan was also a consideration, with his mobility, ability to create from the post, and great paint protection. I keep going back and forth on him and KG, not sure who I'd pick between the two of them.

I looked at Shaq here (who I expect to be voted in), and while I think he has an excellent case, defensive inconsistency is a huge deal for me. I understand that this would be a concern with Wilt, my pick at #4 as well, but the playoff defensive numbers seemed more consistent for Chamberlain, and he was always a willing rebounder; I do think that Shaq was the superior scorer to Wilt—in no small part due to his commitment to the power game, which Chamberlain did not demonstrate consistently over the course of his career— and a very capable passer, but the rebounding/paint protection was big for me. Again, he's certainly a good choice here though.

Admittedly I probably didn't consider Bird/Oscar/Magic here enough, but longevity has become a pretty big deal for me recently. I think LeBron has a strong case as well, but I just have great difficulty considering wings when there are still dominant bigs on the board. True, MJ was voted in at number 1, and while I think he is one of two players with a strong GOAT case (Russ being the other, they were 1-2 in my pre-project list), I'm somewhat relieved he didn't fall to a lower spot, because I'm not sure at what point I'd pick him over a center. I'm also a little confused as to why Kobe has been mentioned so often in this thread, but I think it was mostly peripheral discussion (like my exchange regarding RAPM last thread, apologies again for derailing), so I'm not as concerned. In general though, if we're going to elect a guy on the basis of scoring (and I know that's not his entire game, but it's a huge part of it), IMO we certainly have to take into account whether a guy was the first option, and what his role was on the offensive side of the ball.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:13 pm
by Basketballefan
Who won #5?

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:15 pm
by Baller2014
I'm likely voting for Shaq here, but also thinking Magic. Other dark horse candidates are Lebron and Bird.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:29 pm
by colts18
I'm voting for Shaq. Best playoff performer, finals performer, and most clutch player left on the board

Prime:

Shaq's 6 year prime is right up there with MJ. 98-03, Shaq was the best player in the league every year of that span with the exception of 99.


Regular season:
28.1 PPG
11.8 Reb
3.1 AST
2.8 Turnovers
2.4 Blk
.577 FG%
.585 TS%
29.9 PER
.255 WS/48

He lead the league in PER and FG% every year from 98-02

Postseason:
29.3 PPG
13.7 Reb
3.0 AST
2.4 BLK
.554 FG%
.565 TS%
29.6 PER
.228 WS/48

During the 3peat years he averaged 30-15-3, .55 FG%, 29.3 PER (that's right, his PER was better outside the 3 peat years than during them)

Playoff prime

Shaq's playoff prime was amazing. From 95-04, Shaq averaged 27-13-3, 56 FG%. Amazing when you consider that according to ElGee, Shaq faced the toughest postseason defensive slate of any superstar of the past 25 years.

Peak:
In this thread I made the case for Shaq having the GOAT peak in 2000. 2000 was Shaq's defensive peak and possibly his best offensive year.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1236093

RAPM:
Shaq has not only dominated in box score stats, he also fares well in plus/minus stats especially on offense.
2001: 2nd (1st in offense)
2002: 1st (1st in offense, 4th in defense, ahead of Duncan and D-Rob)
2003: 3rd (1st in offense)
2004: 1st (1st in offense, 26th in defense)
2005: 3rd (5th in offense)
2006: 5th (5th in offense)



Missed games:
Shaq missed a lot of games in his prime, but the missed games did a lot to show his impact. His teams were consistently worse without him than with him. He has a big enough missed game sample size to accurately gauge his impact.

SRS

Code: Select all

Year   w/o   With    diff
1993   -12.02   1.52   13.54
1994   -2.24   3.75   5.99
1995   -2.85   6.72   9.57
1996   2.60   6.85   4.25
1997   1.63   4.41   2.78
1998   3.66   8.06   4.40
1999   -8.17   2.90   11.07
2000   -11.16   9.15   20.31
2001   2.59   3.86   1.28
2002   1.49   8.42   6.93
2003   -2.97   3.98   6.96
2004   3.34   4.58   1.23
2005   2.97   6.10   3.14
2006   -0.07   5.02   5.08


From 93-06, Shaq’s teams were a weighted 5.81 SRS in the games he played, and a 1.22 SRS in the games he missed for a total impact of 4.60 SRS. His teams were 97-78 (.554) in the games he missed. His teams played 45.5 win pace in the games he missed and a 59.8 win pace in the games he played (+14.4 win impact).

Kobe vs Shaq
The games that Shaq and Kobe missed from 1998-2004 showed which guy was more important to the success of the team. The Lakers were mediocre without Shaq, but in the games Kobe missed, they didn’t miss a beat.
Games Kobe missed and Shaq played in, 98-04:

28-6 (.824, 68 win pace)
5.90 SRS
Games Shaq missed, 98-04:
33-31 (.516, 42 win pace)
0.58 SRS

01-04 plus/minus stats:
Shaq/Kobe on court: +9.2 points per 100 possessions
Shaq, no Kobe: +5.2 per 100
Kobe, no Shaq: -2.9 per 100
No Shaq or Kobe: -7.3 per 100

Playoffs:
Shaq/Kobe on court: +7.9 per 100
Shaq, no Kobe: -3.7 per 100
Kobe, no Shaq: -13.4 per 100
No Shaq or Kobe: -10 per 100

Finals:

Shaq put up one of the most impressive stat ever in the finals. In the finals, Shaq had at least 25-10 and 52 FG% in every single game of his first 20 finals games. Shaq didn't average 25-10 and 52 FG% in that 20 game finals run, he put those numbers in every single finals game. He had 0 bad finals games until 2006. Here are his numbers in his first 20 finals games

34.2 PPG, 60.3 FG%, .601 TS%, 14.5 Reb, 4.0 AST, 2.8 BLK


In the finals during the 3peat years, he averaged 36-15-4, 3 blk, 60 FG%. He put 30-10 in 13 out of 15 3 peat finals games (including every game of Nets and Pacers series).


Shaq vs Elite centers

Shaq dominated every single great center he faced head to head. That includes Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson, Zo, Daughtery, and Ben Wallace.

Warning: long read in spoiler tags
Spoiler:
Expected numbers are by getting that players season averages in FG% and PPG (per 36 minutes). All numbers vs these centers in their prime.

vs. Ewing 93-98, Ewings numbers, 18 games:
Expected: 21.7 PPG, 49.4 FG%
Actual: 24.5 PPG, 45.6 FG%

Shaq's numbers vs. Ewing:
Expected: 25.0 PPG, 58.0 FG%
Actual: 25.6 PPG, 54.2 FG%

vs. Hakeem 93-99, 14 games:
Expected: 22.4 PPG, 51.6 FG%
Actual: 20.3 PPG, 45.3 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 23.7 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 20.1 PPG, 57.4 FG%

Playoffs:
vs. Hakeem, 8 games:
Expected: 22.3 PPG, 51.6 FG%
Actual: 21.9 PPG, 46.5 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 24.3 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 25.2 PPG, 55.6 FG%

vs. Robinson 93-01, 19 games:
Expected: 20.3 PPG, 50.8 FG%
Actual: 20.4 PPG, 47.4 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 25.5 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 24.2 PPG, 55.3 FG%

playoffs:
vs. Robinson, 8 games:
Expected: 18.8 PPG, 49.4 FG%
Actual: 17.1 PPG, 44.1 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 25.4 PPG, 57.4 FG%
Actual: 23.4 PPG, 51.2 FG%


vs. Alonzo Mourning, 93-02, 15 games:
Expected: 22.7 PPG, 52.5 FG%
Actual: 23.9 PPG, 44.3 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 25.4 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 28.6 PPG, 56.2 FG%


Total numbers (per 36 minutes), 66 games:
Shaq: 24.7 PPG, 11.5 Reb, 55.6 FG%
Elite: 22.3 PPG, 10.1 Reb, 45.7 FG%

Expected vs. Actual numbers:
Elite guys:
Expected: 22.0 PPG, 50.8 FG%
Actual: 22.3 PPG, 18.6 FGA, 45.7 FG%
+0.3 PPG, -5.1 FG%

Here is how other good offensive big men did vs Shaq. Once again Shaq did a good job at limiting their FG%

Brad Daughtery vs Shaq:
Expected: 18.6 PPG, 53.1 FG%
Actual: 18.3 PPG, 41.5 FG%
Dropoff: -0.3 PPG, -11.5 FG%

Yao Ming vs Shaq:
Expected: 18.4 PPG, 52.3 FG%
Actual: 18.6 PPG, 47.3 FG%
Dropoff: +0.2 PPG, -5.1 FG%

Dwight Howard vs Shaq:
Expected: 18.3 PPG, 58.0 FG%
Actual: 16.5 PPG, 54.8 FG%
Dropoff: -1.8 PPG, -3.2 FG%


Head to Head, advantage in each category:

Shaq vs. Ewing 93-98, 18 games:
Pts advantage: Shaq 11-6
Reb: Shaq 11-7
AST: Shaq 8-6
blk: Shaq 10-5
FG%: Shaq 14-4
W-L: Shaq 11-7

Shaq vs. Hakeem 93-99, 14 games:
Pts: Shaq 7-6
Reb: Shaq 10-3
AST: Hakeem 7-4
blk: Hakeem 9-2
FG%: Shaq 13-1
W-L: Shaq 10-4

Shaq vs. Robinson 93-99, 12 games:
pts: Robinson 6-5
Reb: Shaq 8-4
AST: Robinson 6-3
blk: Shaq 5-2
FG%: Shaq 9-3
W-L: Shaq 6-6

Shaq vs. Mourning 93-00, 14 games:
pts: Shaq 11-3
reb: Shaq 11-3
AST: Shaq 13-0
blk: Shaq 9-2
FG%: Shaq 11-3
W-L: Shaq 11-3

Overall, 58 games:
pts: Shaq 34-22 (.607)
reb: Shaq 40-17 (.702)
AST: Shaq 28-19 (.596)
blk: Shaq 26-16 (.591)
FG%: Shaq 47-11 (.810)
Overall stats: Shaq 175-85 (.673)
W-L: Shaq 38-20 (.655)

Games:
<45 FG%: Elite 30, Shaq 11
>60 FG%: Shaq 21, Elite 6
30 pt games: Shaq 20, Elite 19



Defense

More on Shaq's Defense

Here are some facts from Hoopsstats.com. Here are the best opposing Center PPG and FG% defense since hoopsstats started collecting the stat (from 1998-2013)

Top opponent Center PPG defense from 98-13:
06 Heat: 12.8 PPG (Shaq)
04 Lakers: 12.9 PPG (Shaq)
06 Jazz: 12.9 PPG

Top opponent Center FG% defense from 98-13:
00 Lakers: 40.7 FG% (Shaq)
99 Spurs: 41.1 FG% (Duncan/Robinson)
99 Hawks: 41.9 FG% (Mutombo)
Shaq’s teams finished #1 in 00 and 05, #2 in 01, 02 and #3 in 98 and 06.


Spoiler:
From 93-96:
Here are how starting centers who played at least 30 MP in a game vs. each of these centers fared.

From 93-96:
Here are how starting centers who played at least 30 MP in a game vs. each of these centers fared.

Shaq: 18 PPG, .495 TS%, 10 reb, 1.03 AST-TOV

Ewing: 17.6 PPG, .541 TS%, 10.2 reb, 0.75 AST-TOV

Zo: 19.1 PPG, .564 TS%, 10.9 reb, 1.16 AST-TOV

Robinson: 18.1 PPG, .538 TS%, 10.2 reb, 0.93 AST-TOV

Hakeem: 15 PPG, .541 TS%, 11 reb, 0.89 AST-TOV

league average in this situation: 18.4 PPG, .564 TS% 10.5 reb, 0.87 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -0.4 PPG, -6.9 TS%, -0.5 Reb

Vs elite offensive centers from 93-96 (Shaq, Zo, Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, and Daughtery):

Shaq: 25.1 PPG, .501 TS%, 11.7 reb, 1.10 AST-TOV (37.9% of his games were vs. them)

Ewing: 27.9 PPG, .579 TS%, 12.3 reb, 0.83 AST-TOV (32.4% of games)

Zo: 30.7 PPG, .593 TS%, 12.3 reb, 1.31 AST-TOV (31.1% of games)

Robinson: 24.8 PPG, .519 TS%, 11.1 reb, 0.93 AST-TOV (32.5% of games)

Hakeem: 20.5 PPG, .519 TS%, 12.4 reb, 0.94 AST-TOV (29.7% of games)

League average: 25.7 PPG, .574 TS%, 11.7 Reb, 0.93 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -0.6 PPG, -7.3 TS%

97-00 against starting centers with 30 MP:

Shaq: 14.6 PPG, .473 TS%, 9.8 reb, 0.99 AST-TOV

Zo: 13.3 PPG, .504 TS%, 9.5 reb, 0.77 AST-TOV

Robinson; 14.9 PPG, .511 TS%, 8.7 reb, 0.69 AST-TOV (from 98-00 for Robinson)

League average: 16.1 PPG, .549 TS%, 10.1 reb, 0.80 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -1.5 PPG, -7.6 TS%

Here is what they did vs. Shaq/Zo/Robinson/Hakeem/Ewing:

Shaq: 18.4 PPG, .449 TS%, 10.3 reb, 0.93 AST-TOV (26.7% of games)

Zo: 22.5 PPG, .508 TS%, 11.5 reb, 0.71 AST-TOV (20.5% of games)

Robinson: 23.5 PPG, .549 TS%, 10.2 reb, 0.44 AST-TOV (20.2% of games)

average: 23.8 PPG, .564 TS%, 11.5 reb, 0.75 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -5.4 PPG, -1.2 Reb, -11.2 TS% :o

Numbers from 01-04:
Shaq: 11.4 PPG, .510 TS%, 9.3 reb, 1.27 AST-TOV
avg: 14.3 PPG, .552 TS%, 9.8 reb, 0.92 AST-TOV
Dropoff: -2.9 PPG, -4.2 TS%, -0.5 reb, +0.35 AST-TOV


Playoff Defense:

Shaq has also played really good man defense in the playoffs. He has quite a few notable series where he limits the efficiency of his opponents:
Spoiler:
Hakeem vs Shaq, 95 Finals :
RS avg- 27.8 PPG, .563 TS%, 110 O rating
vs Shaq: 32.8 PPG, .514 TS%, 107 O rating
Diff: +5 PPG, -4.9 TS%, -3 O rating

Hakeem, 99 Playoffs:
RS avg- 18.9 PPG, .559 TS%, 23.1 PER, 105 O rating
Vs Shaq- 13.3 PPG, .461 TS%, 13.8 PER, 95 O rating
Diff: -5.6 PPG, -9.8 TS%, -9.3 PER, -10 O rating

Yao, 04 Playoffs:
RS avg: 17.5 PPG, .586 TS%, 21.9 PER, 110 O rating
Vs Shaq- 15 PPG, .497 TS%, 14.9 PER, 95 O rating
Diff: -2.5 PPG, -8.9 TS%, -7 PER, -15 O rating

Robinson, 99+01 Playoffs:
RS Avg- 15.1 PPG, .561 TS%
Vs Shaq- 13.8 PPG, .499 TS%
Diff: -1.3 PPG, -6.2 TS%

2000 playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis):
Divac: 11.2 PPG, 35.7 FG%, 423 TS% (12.3 PPG, 50.3 FG%, .552 TS%)
Longley: 5.2 PPG, 37.1 FG%, .330 TS% (6.3 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .512 TS%)
Sabonis: 8.3 PPG, 38.2 FG%, 22.2 3P%, .471 TS% (11.8 PPG, 50.5 FG%, 36.8 3P%, .568 TS%)
Smits: 10 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .495 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%)
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:33 pm
by Purch
Considering that bigs seem to be favored in this project, it might be time to copy and revive the arguments for Karl Malome last project that got him voted in at #12 last project

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:37 pm
by Basketballefan
Purch wrote:Considering that bigs seem to be favored in this project, it might be time to copy and revive the arguments for Karl Malome last project that got him voted in at #12 last project

There's no way he gets voted that high this time around. Id be shocked if he made top 15.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:39 pm
by Purch
Basketballefan wrote:
Purch wrote:Considering that bigs seem to be favored in this project, it might be time to copy and revive the arguments for Karl Malome last project that got him voted in at #12 last project

There's no way he gets voted that high this time around. Id be shocked if he made top 15.

Who knows..I don't understand this forums trends. 5 months ago Wilt was getting massively underrated, and the past 2 months Garnett's been getting overrated. It's really hard to predict the perception posters will have on a player at a given time

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:40 pm
by colts18
For those questioning Shaq's defense and saying how he never played on good defenses.

Here is a list of NBA players who played on the best defenses
Rk Player TmDef (relative to league average)
7 Tim Duncan -5.60
94 Shaquille O'Neal -2.22
96 Kevin Garnett -2.16
203 Hakeem Olajuwon -1.11

If you pay close attention you will see that Shaq's teams played better defense than Hakeem or KG's teams yet no one seems to question their defense.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:44 pm
by 90sAllDecade
I'll be voting Hakeem here and will be sharing analysis why over time.

Regardless of the vote, I'll do my best to address and contribute whatever new data or perspectives I can. I'll still advocate, but this will become mostly academic comparisons for other's benefit if they find value in it.

Here's my reasons in the previous thread. I'll be going into new info as well in this thread as much as possible.

Spoiler:
*UPDATED POST*

I vote Hakeem Olajuwon and will go in-depth why he's a better combined overall individual two way player than anyone else considering team support, competition and all context.

When you hold a microscope to these players, Hakeem is actually the true GOAT center and big man all time imo despite these long held media influenced beliefs.

Basketball has always been a center's game from 50's in Mikan, 60's Wilt, Russell, 70's-80's Kareem, Walton, 90s Hakeem & 00's Shaq. Dominant two way bigs have always been more impactful than wing players on the whole. They are extremely rare, can be offensive and defensive anchors and whenever a GM is given a choice of what to start a franchise with a dominant big is the #1 choice.

Hakeem Olajuwon is the consensus greatest two way big of all time and imo the GOAT center

No wing player in NBA history, Jordan, Magic included, has ever won a championship without an all star or HOF talent versus bigs. Hakeem is the only player in NBA history to win a championship without an all star, HOF talent or elite/GOAT level coach. Wings need more help, bigs can do more with less because they are historically more impactful overall. Dr. James Naismith made basketball's scoring mechanism ten feet off the ground; height, shooting, coordination and explosiveness are traditionally king in this game and likely always will be


If you were to create the closest perfect shooting guard by combining skills with no weaknesses to date, it would be Jordan. If you were to create the closest perfect center with skills and no weaknesses it's Hakeem Olajuwon.

He combines every quality all the greatest have and is the greatest playoff center of all time:

He has playoff offense that's comparable to KAJ and Shaq:

Career PO ppg avg (raw):

Hakeem: 25.9 pts .569 TS%
Shaq: 24.3 pts, .565 TS%
Duncan: 21.3 pts, .548 TS%
Wilt: 22.5 pts, .524 TS%
Kareem: 24.3, .571 TS%

2 year consecutive Playoff peaks per100 avg (adjusted for pace):

Hakeem: 38.2, .563% (94-95)
Shaq: 37.6, .559 TS% (00-01)
Duncan: 32.2, .569 TS% (02-03)
Kareem: 36.0, .621 TS% (77-78)

Playoff Passing Comparable to Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Walton:

Peak Single Year Playoff Ast%:

Hakeem: 22.6% (95)
Wilt: 23.2 (68)
Walton: 19.4% (77)

Career Playoff Ast%:

Hakeem: 15.6%
Shaq: 14.7%
Wilt: 12.9%
Duncan: 16.2%
Kareem: 14.6%
Walton: 17.0%

He has defense comparable to Bill Russell.

There is no big in history comparable to him in steals. So we'll use wing players:

Career Steal Percent RS:

Hakeem: 2.4%
LeBron: 2.3%
Bird: 2.2%
Magic: 2.5%

Career Total Steals:

Hakeem: 2,162 - 9th All Time
Scottie Pippen: 2,307 - 6th
Alvin Robertson: 2,112 - 10th
Kobe Bryant: 1,835 - 16th

Career Blocks per Game:

Hakeem: 3.09
Duncan: 2.23
Shaq: 2.26

Peak Blk% RS:

Hakeem: 7.0%, 6.8%, 6.5%
Shaq: 5.8%, 5.7%, 5.3%
Duncan: 6.4%. 5.7%, 5.3%
Kareem: 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.6% (Data available only from age 26+)

And Olajuwon has rebounding comparable to any modern center or Duncan.

Peak Reb% RS:

Hakeem: 19.9%, 19.8%, 19.5%
Shaq: 20.6%, 18.8%, 18.7%
Duncan: 19.6%, 19.4%, 19.1%

-This post will be updated and edited over time.

Hakeem is the greatest player in NBA history with the lowest team support and highest competition. This shows just how good he had to be versus the others who had outstanding high team support and lower competition advantages.

Team Support Comparison

Jordan:
15 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x5 ( x6, if you consider 91' Pippen, which I do personally)
Two All Star player: x0 (x2 depending how you view Rodman)
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x2
HOF Coach x7

*if you count Tex Winter, architect of the Triangle Offense, Jordan had two HOF coaches at once

Kareem:
19 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x15
Two All Star player: x7
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x7
HOF Coach: x8


Larry Bird:
13 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x13
Two All Star player: x10
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x0
HOF Coach x0



LeBron:
10 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x6
Two All Star player: x4 (so far)
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x0
HOF Coach x0


Magic:
12 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x11
Two All Star player: x7
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x7
HOF Coach x9


Russell:
12 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x12
Two All Star player: x11
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x9
HOF Coach x9


Hakeem:
17 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x7
Two All Star player: x1
Two All Star player and HOF Coach: x0
HOF Coach x0

In his prime (age 23-33) Hakeem dominated or outplayed his HOF center peers in the playoffs throughout his career.

1986 playoffs Hakeem vs Kareem (HOF):

Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#HOU-LAL

Hakeem played PF while Sampson guarded Kareem. Kareem's numbers are misleading though, 2nd year Hakeem destroyed the Lakers PF and was killing old Kareem, Lakers PFs and everyone else on the front-line on the glass and running the floor. The lesser talented Rockets beat the 62 win defending champion Lakers without HCA (Was that a tough former champion the Rockets beat?)

They wanted to keep both big men out of foul trouble until game 4 I believe when they put KAJ on him and Hakeem starts dominating him in their very few head to head plays that series. KAJ was old and Hakeem was a 2nd year player, but throughout their prime careers Hakeem had a better peak, was a better rebounder, defender, shot blocker and stealer with comparable offense in the playoffs. KAJ would also get outplayed by HOF peers in the playoffs. Olajuwon was also mentally tougher with less help and better competition.

I can provide a link for people to watch the series, there is no doubt who the dominant player was. Here's the highlights for an idea.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOCMH_6NMBI[/youtube]

1986 playoffs Hakeem vs Parish (HOF):

Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#BOS-HOU

The Rockets faced a team and frontline that is argued as the best of all time and 2nd year Hakeem dominated Parish and anyone who guarded him. He undressed Parish on both sides of the ball, while Sampson guarded McHale at PF. The Rockets got beat handily and simply were out matched talent wise. Only two players dominated indivdiually against that Boston defense and team: Michael Jordan and Olajuwon.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nz1wyL8neEM[/youtube]

1994 playoffs Hakeem vs Ewing (HOF):

Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#HOU-NYK

He undressed Ewing on offense and defense, we all know what happened here.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeN34AZExv4[/youtube]

1995 playoffs Hakeem vs Robinson (HOF):

Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#HOU-SAS

The league's MVP, one of the greatest defensive players ever and one of the freakish NBA athletes of all time. He got destroyed by Olajuwon.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hW4uXlRGAF0[/youtube]

1995 playoffs Hakeem vs Shaq (HOF):

Image
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#HOU-ORL

Shaq held his own, but his turnovers, Hakeem was more impactful during crucial times and as a team defender; and the more talented, 57 win Magic lost in a sweep with HCA against a against the 47 win sixth seeded Rockets weighs the scales in Olajwon's favor imo.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j6HgipHIrM[/youtube]


Arguably the greatest frontline in NBA history (86' Celtics) and one of the greatest modern defensive cast (90's Knicks) couldn't even stop prime Olajuwon.


Shaq and Duncan however played worse against historic caliber defenses in the playoffs.

Ben Wallace vs Shaq & Duncan

Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =wallabe01

I can't say Ben outplayed Shaq offensively, but throughout Ben's prime career in the playoffs he's been troublesome for both Shaq and Duncan.

Ben, a center who is a potential HOFer, has consistently beaten Shaq in the playoffs and is 14-8 against him all time. His team beat him in the NBA finals and have beaten Shaq 3-1 while Shaq team's having HCA every time except once and very talented rosters. At this age (31-34) Hakeem was much better comparatively against tougher competition.

Look at how every time they played H2H, Ben's team usually won in the playoffs:

2004 NBA Finals:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#DET-LAL

2005 ECF:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#DET-MIA

2006 ECF:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#MIA-DET

2007 First Round (with Bulls):
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#CHI-MIA

Ben vs Duncan:
Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#SAS-DET


Ben's had better TS% although his rebounding was a little less and the Spurs won (the series went 7 games), Duncan had very good rebounding but played worse offensively against Ben and the Pistons comparatively. Compared to the defenses Hakeem dominated, he was better comparatively.

Hakeem vs Shaq 3 year peak & Defensive Comparison:

[spoiler]Three year Peaks: Hakeem 92'-95' vs Shaq 99'-02'

Regular Season

Image

Image

Hakeem TS% .568
Shaq TS% .580

Almost a wash with Shaq having better TS% and a small rebounding & point per game edge, but Hakeem has a tiny passing edge, better blocks, steals and slightly more turnovers.

Hakeem was far and away the dominant defensive player in his peak, winning Defensive Player of the year two years in a row and came in third the last year. Shaq never won one but did come in second the first year.

(Edit: I hashed their defense without accolades later, since they can be bad indicators.)

Playoffs

Image

Image

Hakeem TS% .564
Shaq TS% .562

Shaq had a clear rebounding edge and slightly less turnovers, but Hakeem had slightly better TS%, better passing, steals, blocks and played tougher competition with less help. As well as his peak defensive playoffs.

If you combine their offensive and defensive peaks, it seems Shaq had a slightly better single year and Hakeem had a better peak years overall in total impact.

Defense Shaq 99'-02' vs. Hakeem 92'-95'

Hakeem Regular Season

Def. Reb: 9.0
DRB% 24.2
Blks: 3.8
Steals: 1.8

Team Opp ppg Rank: 3rd (93'), 5th (94'), 14th (95')
Team Drtg rank: 2nd (94'), 3rd (93'), 12th (95')

Shaq Regular Season

Def. Reb: 8.5
DRB% 23.9
Blks: 2.6
Steals: 0.6

Team Opp ppg Rank: 6th (00'), 9th (02'), 23rd (01')
Team Drtg rank: 1st (00'), 7th (02'), 21st (01')

Hakeem Playoffs

Def. Reb: 8.7
DRB% 22.2
Blks: 3.7
Steals: 1.5

Team Opp ppg Rank: 3rd (93'), 7th (94'), 12th (95')
Team Drtg rank: 3rd (94'), 6th (93'), 9th (95')

Shaq Playoffs

Def. Reb: 9.7
DRB% 25.5
Blks: 2.4
Steals: 0.5

Team Opp ppg Rank: 3rd (01'), 7th (02'), 15th (00')
Team Drtg rank: 1st (01'), 7th (02'), 13th (00')

And to help account for teammate help or hindrance and pace for Drtg.

Rockets Drtg vs 92'-95' Hakeem

105.2 - 96 (-9.2 diff)
101.4 - 95 (-6.4 diff)
107.4 - 100 (-7.4 diff)
Total avg Drtg: -7.6

Lakers Drtg vs 99'-02' Shaq

98.2 - 95 (-3.2 diff)
104.8 - 101 (-3.8 diff)
101.7 - 99 (-2.7 diff)
Total avg Drtg: -3.2

Playoffs

Rockets Drtg vs 92'-95' Hakeem

104.8 - 97 (-7.8 diff)
104.1 - 97 (-7.1 diff)
112.2 - 108 (-4.2 diff)
Total avg Drtg: -6.36

Lakers Drtg vs 99'-02' Shaq

107.5 - 104 (-3.5 diff)
97.9 - 96 (-1.9 diff)
102.3 - 99 (-3.3 diff)
Total avg Drtg: -2.9

So not only was Hakeem better in just about every defensive category, he also had less defensive help than Shaq and also faced tougher competition.



Spoiler:
Hakeem vs Duncan:

Career Numbers Regular Season: Hakeem vs Duncan:

Hakeem

Image

Image


Duncan

Image

Image


So, despite the fact that Duncan hasn't played until the age of 39 yet, Hakeem still has better numbers for his career even in the regular season.

Hakeem is a better individual offensive player as a scorer, has better TS%, is a better stealer, shot blocker not to mention just an overall better defensive player. Duncan will also likely get worse statistically as he ages to 39 and over, bringing these numbers down.

I consider Duncan a better rebounder (his 0.5 passing advantage is enhanced by teammates and Pops system imo), but if you want to be literal on "what actually happened" then they are dead even rebounders and assists are a wash (but I look at advanced percentage and teams support as well)

Well, how about what actually happened individually in the playoffs?

Playoff Career Stats: Hakeem vs Duncan:

Hakeem

Image

Image

Duncan

Image

Image

Well, based on actual numbers for their entire playoff careers Hakeem is still a better offensive player as a scorer, better TS%, stealer, shot blocker and better all around defensive player as well. Rebound and assists are a wash and this doesn't include team support, competition and that Hakeem is a better athlete than Duncan.

So not only does Hakeem have a better peak and is a better athlete; he has a better prime, and also is a better regular season & playoff performer individually over their entire careers.

Sources:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... uha01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ati01.html


Impact Data for Hakeem, from Dipper 13:

Dipper 13 wrote:Image


58 Games Total

http://i.imgur.com/VjNycWs.png

1992-93: 10 games
1993-94: 26 games
1994-95: 22 games




Shot Chart


Spoiler:
At Rim: 251/334 FG (75.1%)
In Paint (Overall): 401/647 FG (62.0%)
Midrange: 297/674 FG (44.1%)
3 Point: 5/10 FG (50.0%)




Image
Image





Synergy Offense


Spoiler:
PPP stands for Points Per Play.



Overall Chart

http://i.imgur.com/mI9vr92.png


Isolation Plays Only

http://i.imgur.com/aqBJT35.png



Shot Attempts Blocked (Offense): 46

*This means 3.5% of his shots (1331 FGA) were blocked in this footage





Team Performance


Spoiler:
Image


Plus/Minus

Plus/Minus Total: +380

Plus/Minus Per 100: +8.4



On/Off

On Court ORtg: 111.3

Off Court ORtg: 108.1

Net ORtg: +3.2



On Court DRtg: 103.0

Off Court DRtg: 134.5

Net DRtg: -31.5



On/Off Net Rating: +34.7




Man Defense

Spoiler:
Man Defense records all plays that involve the offensive man in isolations, post ups (including stolen entry passes), & offensive rebound putbacks.

Forced TOV's consist of all plays where the offensive player was forced into traveling violations, stepping out of bounds, or offensive fouls.


Below we can see the overall statistics as well as certain individual matchups.

Total Statistics

http://i.imgur.com/XaZWGRZ.png


Ewing '94 Finals

http://i.imgur.com/F5FCtkC.png


Robinson '95 WCF

http://i.imgur.com/IhMcAg3.png


Shaq '95 Finals

http://i.imgur.com/aVybOhH.png

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330591

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:51 pm
by Baller2014
Basketballefan wrote:Who won #5?


Tim Duncan. So now the discussion moves on to what I suspect will become Shaq v.s Magic.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:52 pm
by Purch
colts18 wrote:For those questioning Shaq's defense and saying how he never played on good defenses.

Here is a list of NBA players who played on the best defenses
Rk Player TmDef (relative to league average)
7 Tim Duncan -5.60
94 Shaquille O'Neal -2.22
96 Kevin Garnett -2.16
203 Hakeem Olajuwon -1.11

If you pay close attention you will see that Shaq's teams played better defense than Hakeem or KG's teams yet no one seems to question their defense.


Has your stance on Malone and Garnett changed since last project ?


colts18 wrote:Here is my Malone vs. KG case.

Here are there numbers through age 34:
Malone: 26.2 PPG, 10.7 Reb, .583 TS%, 3.3 Ast, 24.1 PER, .207 WS/48
Garnett: 19.5 PPG, 10.7 Reb, .549 TS%, 4.1 Ast, 23.5 PER, .191 WS/48

Playoffs:
Malone: 26.9 PPG, 11.4 Reb, 2.9 Ast, .532 TS%, 22.3 PER, .154 WS/48
Garnett: 19.6 PPG, 11.1 Reb, 3.8 Ast, .519 TS%, 21.7 PER, .151 WS/48

Malone had a few solid years after this including an MVP season. KG is already declining rapidly.

All-NBA:
Malone: 14 All-NBA (11 first team)
Garnett: 9 All-NBA (4 first team)

MVP:
Malone: 2 MVP, 14 top 10, 9 Top 5, 5 Top 3
Garnett: 1 MVP, 7 Top 10, 5 Top 5, 4 Top 3

Head to Head:
Malone: 24.5 PPG, 8.8 Reb, 4.1 AST, 51.7 FG%
Garnett: 19.3 PPG, 10.0 Reb, 3.6 AST, 46.8 FG%

NBA Finals:
Malone- 24.4 PPG, 10.4 Reb, 3.7 AST, 47.3 FG%, .517 TS%
Garnett- 16.6 PPG, 9.0 Reb, 3.0 AST, 46.6 FG%, .509 TS%

You can't use the age excuse because Malone went to the Finals in his age 33 and 34 season while KG went in his 31 and 33. Malone did this while being guarded by one of the best defenders in history. Pau Gasol is no Dennis Rodman. Malone drew 2.2x more FT than KG in 1 less game.

One of the reasons I have Malone ahead is because of the significant offensive advantage. Big part is FT. Malone drew about 2x more FT than KG does. Not only does he rack up FT, but he forces his opponent into the penalty early helping his teammates out. All the KG supporter fail to mention his embarrassing track record at drawing FT.

RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:53 pm
by RSCD3_
MY VOTE FOR #6 IS Shaquille O'Neal

He was an incredible player who warped offenses like no other. His dominance in the paint due to size and coordination and his passing ability led to a player that was incredibly help to building an offense. He also drew many fouls which helped the lakers opponents get in the bonus.

His defense ability is fluid because of peaks and valleys but because of his size he could always be an intimidation to drives and a fairly capable shot blocker.

He has one of the GOAT peaks (2000) and IMO the greatest finals series of all time. Even accounting injuries during his lengthy prime (93-05) he was ready for the playoffs in almost all seasons.

People will say that he didn't get along with his teammates and had a brooding attitude but he still had a tremendous impact and other than the Kobe Shaq spat, the other issues were overdone.




Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:54 pm
by colts18
Purch wrote:
colts18 wrote:For those questioning Shaq's defense and saying how he never played on good defenses.

Here is a list of NBA players who played on the best defenses
Rk Player TmDef (relative to league average)
7 Tim Duncan -5.60
94 Shaquille O'Neal -2.22
96 Kevin Garnett -2.16
203 Hakeem Olajuwon -1.11

If you pay close attention you will see that Shaq's teams played better defense than Hakeem or KG's teams yet no one seems to question their defense.


Has your stance on Malone and Garnett changed since last project ?
My stance on KG certainly changed since then (that was 3 years ago). I'm higher on him now then I was back then. Since then KG also had his 2012 season where he was a top 10 player (even if that was a weak year). I have both of them in the 11-15 range. I will evaluate them more later on but as of right now I probably have KG slightly ahead.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:56 pm
by An Unbiased Fan
Still leaning towards Magic.

Best players at each position left. PF spot is a moshpit.

PG - Magic
SG - Kobe
SF - Lebron/Bird
PF - Malone/Dirk/Barkley/KG/Petitt
C - Shaq/Hakeem

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:02 am
by Baller2014
UBF, I didn't call you on this before, but I'm going to now. "Best players at their position" is an obviously flawed way to look at things. The next ten best players might all have played the same position. It looks to me like you're just using that analysis so you can mention Kobe (especially since you have Kobe all alone at the SG spot, but you bring up Pettit at the PF spot! Pettit is a lot further away from guys like KG and Malone than Kobe is from guys like Drexler, Gervin, Wade, T-Mac or D.Wilkins).

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:05 am
by 90sAllDecade
I'll start with a first point.

Hakeem played Shaq from ages 30-39. He was already thirty when 20 year old Shaq entered the league. Hakeem's dominant athletic years were in the 80's, his defensive prime was ending at around age 32 and offensive prime at about age 33.

To use career head to head numbers during this entire span post prime in this fashion is misleading imo.

For example, using head to head in that fashion Dwight Howard arguably outplays Shaq who retired a year younger than Olajuwon.

Image
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =howardw01

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:08 am
by colts18
90sAllDecade wrote:I'll start with a first point.

Hakeem played Shaq from ages 30-39. He was already thirty when 20 year old Shaq entered the league. Hakeem's dominant athletic years were in the 80's, his defensive prime was ending at around age 32 and offensive prime at about age 33.

Shaq was still outplaying Hakeem head to head when Hakeem was an all-star caliber player

vs. Hakeem 93-99, 14 games:
Expected: 22.4 PPG, 51.6 FG%
Actual: 20.3 PPG, 45.3 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 23.7 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 20.1 PPG, 57.4 FG%

Playoffs:
vs. Hakeem, 8 games:
Expected: 22.3 PPG, 51.6 FG%
Actual: 21.9 PPG, 46.5 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 24.3 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 25.2 PPG, 55.6 FG%

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:15 am
by Basketballefan
Will once again vote Magic Johnson below is my reasoning from before.

Arguably the greatest offensive player of all time, great leader, great winner, made his teammates better than anyone ever imo.

5 time champion, 3 of which he was the undisputed best player, 3 time MVP, 12 time all star, 4 time assist leader, 9 All nba first team selection etc

Great playoff performer beat some all time great teams such as Bird's Celtics and the Bad boy pistons, Avged 20 8 12 over his 13 year playoff career. Wins his first championship and FMVP as a rookie putting up 18 11 9 in the playoffs, with an incredible 42 15 7 game 6 clinching performance as Kareem goes down with injury and he jumps center.

Had Magic not got HIV he would've had a longer career and could've been in discussion for top 2 or even GOAT.

Knocks on magic usually consist of his longevity and his defense. Magic wasn't a great defender but i don't think he was a negative on that end and for his longevity its not great but not horrible, 13 years and he accomplished so much in that span and changed the game.

Re: RealGM Top 100 List #6

Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:29 am
by ceiling raiser
Basketballefan wrote:Will once again vote Magic Johnson below is my reasoning from before.

Arguably the greatest offensive player of all time, great leader, great winner, made his teammates better than anyone ever imo.

5 time champion, 3 of which he was the undisputed best player, 3 time MVP, 12 time all star, 4 time assist leader, 9 All nba first team selection etc

Great playoff performer beat some all time great teams such as Bird's Celtics and the Bad boy pistons, Avged 20 8 12 over his 13 year playoff career. Wins his first championship and FMVP as a rookie putting up 18 11 9 in the playoffs, with an incredible 42 15 7 game 6 clinching performance as Kareem goes down with injury and he jumps center.

Had Magic not got HIV he would've had a longer career and could've been in discussion for top 2 or even GOAT.

Knocks on magic usually consist of his longevity and his defense. Magic wasn't a great defender but i don't think he was a negative on that end and for his longevity its not great but not horrible, 13 years and he accomplished so much in that span and changed the game.

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