penbeast0 wrote:Thought about Lucas for a long time. One of the early stretch 4's, excellent rebounder and jump shooter. Problem -- he and Oscar Robertson played together for a long time and were, quite frankly, underwhelming. The Royals were not an impressive defensive team and that's generally more of an issue for bigs. When I saw him in NY, he always put in good effort on that end, but was not a shotblocker or effective help defender. Smart, good passer, had a rep for being obsessed with his own stats (of course, this was a player that memorized phone books for fun so that's probably more just his personality).
Compare to Bailey Howell for his era.
Howell played one more year and 121 more games. Lucas, however, played more minutes overall averaging 38.8mpg to Howell's 32.2. I would give the advantage here to Lucas.
Per 36, Howell outscores Lucas 21 to 16, Lucas outrebounds him 14.5 to 11.0 though some of that is positional as Lucas swung to center while Howell swung to SF, Lucas gets 3 assists to Howell's 2. Their career TS% is exactly equal (.544), Lucas was more known for his range.
Howell has superior playoff numbers, outscoring Lucas per 36, 18.5 to 13.6, and the rebounding edge almost disappears. However, this is to a large part because Lucas's teams were better in NY where he had a much smaller role both offensively and in terms of rebounding. Both lose a lot of their efficiency advantage (Howell's ts% drops to .517, Lucas's to .511).
Howell was also part of some underwhelming Detroit teams (playing with Dave DeBusschere), but then joined the late Celtic dynasty. Lucas took over the center role for injured Willis Reed in the Knicks' 73 title run.
Looking at the two statistically, I'd give Howell a slight edge. Defensively, I traditionally considered them both average to below average but have seen anecdotal arguments that Howell was a good defender; though no supporting statistical evidence (to the degree we can look at defensive numbers for that period). Lucas was consistently more recognized by his contemporaries on All-NBA awards though that may be a factor of the bigger minutes played.
I think the two are reasonably close as peers. Just thought it was an interesting comp.
OK, I got around to the Per 100 estimates for Howell.
Here again are Lucas's for reference:
Per 100 Possessions and Relative TS%'64: 17.7 pts, 17.4 reb, 2.6 ast @
+9.37% rts
'65: 20.5 pts, 19.1 reb, 2.3 ast @ +7.26% rts
'66: 19.2 pts, 18.9 reb, 2.4 ast @ +1.24% rts
'67: 16.4 pts, 17.6 reb, 3.0 ast @ +1.48% rts
'68: 20.4 pts, 18.1 reb, 2.9 ast @ +6.75% rts
'69: 18.6 pts, 18.6 reb, 4.2 ast @
+9.88% rts
'70: 17.2 pts, 16.2 reb, 3.0 ast @ +4.32% rts
'71: 20.0 pts, 16.5 reb, 3.8 ast @ +4.37% rts
'72: 19.5 pts, 15.4 reb, 4.8 ast @ +4.41% rts
'73: 15.9 pts, 11.6 reb, 7.2 ast @ +4.18% rts
'74: 13.0 pts, 10.7 reb, 6.6 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.7 blk @ -2.37% rts
Extended Prime of Jerry Lucas ('64-'72)--685 rs gamesRough cumulative Per 100 poss: 18.5 to 19.0 pts, 17.5 reb, 3.0+ ast @ +5.18% rts
PER 19.3, .147 WS/48 in a whopping 41.6 mpg over that span
Here's how Bailey Howell's went year to year:
Per 100 Possessions and Relative TS%'60: 22.1 pts, 13.1 reb, 1.0 ast @ +4.71 rts
'61: 23.4 pts, 14.3 reb, 2.5 ast @ +8.26 rts
'62: 21.3 pts, 13.5 reb, 2.5 ast @ +6.02 rts
'63: 24.1 pts, 12.2 reb, 3.1 ast @
+9.69 rts
'64: 25.6 pts, 11.9 reb, 3.1 ast @ +6.23 rts
'65: 21.3 pts, 12.1 reb, 2.9 ast @
+10.36 rts
'66: 22.8 pts, 12.9 reb, 2.6 ast @ +6.86 rts
'67: 25.6 pts, 10.7 reb, 1.6 ast @ +6.60 rts
'68: 22.9 pts, 11.4 reb, 1.9 ast @ +2.89 rts
'69: 24.8 pts, 11.1 reb, 2.2 ast @ +4.13 rts
'70: 20.3 pts, 10.8 reb, 2.4 ast @ -2.37 rts
'71: 22.9 pts, 11.5 reb, 3.0 ast @ +3.23 rts
Extended Prime of Bailey Howell ('61-'69)--711 rs gamesRough cumulative Per 100 poss: 23.5 pts, 12.3 reb, 2.5 ast @ +6.74 rts
PER 19.8, .193 WS/48 in 34.6 mpg
Howell does appear a clearly better scorer (and visually I've always been impressed with what I've seen of him in this regard: some mid-range touch, little bit of post-game, decent in transition, could put it on the floor, have seen him hit some kinda difficult runners, etc); and I guess I didn't realize how far ahead of the curve he was in his shooting efficiency.
However, pace adjusted (in response to my aforementioned concerns with using Per 36 numbers when comparing these two) numbers do reveal that Lucas was a pretty significantly better rebounder, even relative to position. Though Lucas played a little C, and Howell played a little SF, overall there's probably
less than 1 position separating them (i.e. they were both
mostly PF's). Yet there's ~5 reb/100 possessions difference between the two.
All of this should again be viewed in light of minutes, as well (7 mpg difference between their respective primes; fairly significant imo).
I remember thinking Howell looked OK defensively from what I've watched of him (basically only his Celtic days). tbh, I don't well-recall how Lucas performed defensively (I should try to find the time to watch some old games again with that focus). By reputation, he appears to be maybe a little behind Howell in this regard, although Samurai's comments make me wonder if that's justified.
Howell appears slightly less consistent than Lucas in the post-season, too (though ps is still a close comparison).
At any rate, I'm thinking I should up Howell's standing in my ATL. Whether I want to downgrade Lucas's rank and/or put Howell ahead of him.....idk about that. I'd certainly be OK supporting a different candidate (DeBusschere, Bellamy, or McGinnis would be my top other choices at this point) if popular opinion were going that way. Trouble is, there
isn't really "popular opinion" to speak of, as the voter turn-out we're getting is so atrocious.