bondom34 wrote:Doc:
RE: RAPM
I'll toss this out there, and I still get it if people vote Davis over Westbrook but a few points...
1. There's an incredible amount of noise and fluctuation in these numbers, especially the NPI ones. Lorak and I had gotten in a debate a few weeks back over this in another thread, where Harden jumped up to near top 10 defense from way back in the field. We couldn't figure out the issue, but he was using older numbers (January) when I was using ones from March. It was a jump of around 2 points if I'm remembering correctly, and in a really short period. Saying that, I wouldn't doubt that WB's numbers could drop pretty drastically when the OKC lineups lost Ibaka, Roberson, Adams for some time, and Collison for some time all while Kanter got heavy minutes.
2. Looking at last year's gotbuckets DRAPM:
Davis at -.68
WB at -.19 where positive is better.
That's saying to me that something is fundamentally off, and why I'm becoming more skeptical of RAPM in general. To drop or jump that much in a single season seems just a bit wrong to me, and I think a mix of WB's minutes being played alongside weaker defensive players and Davis gaining Asik has flipped the numbers a little. Having said that, WB hasn't been as good as usual defensively this season with the offensive load carried, but he hasn't dropped to the point of being near worst in the league as RAPM is showing. Personally I buy the DRPM numbers a bit more, as he's been a little below neutral to my eyes having seen him a good bit. His offense has still been excellent and personallly I'd vote him overall ahead of Davis.
So this is yet another debate where I'm starting to turn from someone who followed RAPM and was a big fan of it to someone who's starting to wonder about its efficacy in these sort of things.
Also, on his offense not "fitting" with KD, I'd say this season he really couldn't play like it should w/ Durant. There's no Durant out there. Honestly, you remove a guy like that from any team, and I'd hope his teammates play differently.
Edit: Found the conversation w Lorak. It starts here:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1379361&start=60#p43118777
I'll say up front that you're right that there is noise to consider. This is why a more reliable metric like RPM exists. Just keep in mind that we also know that that reliability comes with a bias. We don't know exactly what that bias will mean, but we know that guys who look better by the box score will probably get helped by it. And we can also guess that the players helped the most will be those who look good by statistical +/-, and that the most used variant of that stats, b-r's BPM, calls Westbrook the best player in the game. So bottom line is: We should probably expect that Westbrook's defense is worse than his Defensive RPM lets on.
In terms of major jumps from year to year, I understand the skepticism and the tendency to attribute it to noise. But I also think it's important to just recognize that actual impact is more finicky that pure production. Even improving production-based efficiency, like in a stat like WS or BPM, is based going after easy to identify check boxes. History tells us though that veterans are a lot more effective than their box score let's on particularly because they know how to see all the little things that don't have a neon sign pointing to them.
What I said about Davis last year - and this year too to an extent - is that a low +/- scoring for him doesn't mean he's doing big things fundamentally wrong, it could well just be that there are some subtle things that Davis and his coaches are still trying to work out the kinks on. Identifying countermeasures that opponents can take that move them past the first, effective line of defense.
And, well, last year the NO defense was flat out bad with Davis on the court. This year it's quite a bit better.
Over at OKC, let's understand that while it's totally reasonable that OKC would fall off with injuries - particularly to the MVP of the team - it is very, very interesting that the team has seen more of a drop off on defense than on offense. On the one hand, that's points to precisely why people rightly want to throw some praise Westbrook's way. Dude has really stepped up his game to levels many of us didn't think was possible.
But on the other hand, we have to say to ourselves: The Thunder actually miss something on defense more than they miss Durant on offense. And as we say this, we should have our jaws on the floor, and wonder what that could possibly be.
This I think is a good time to point out that the defense with Westbrook NOT playing this year is about the same as it was last year. Last year, with Durant & Ibaka out there the whole year was only slightly better than this year with all the injuries on defense. So whatever is happening to the OKC defense that's making them considerably worse this year, it's happening while Westbrook plays.
I'm not going to try to put that all on Westbrook, but at the same time, the +/- telling us negative things about Westbrook's D doesn't seem all that weird to me. The defense hasn't been great when he plays, and there's a tendency to basically have every one else just try not to get into Westbrook's way while he does his thing. Whenever we see this I start questioning whether it's making the players look a lot less capable than they actually are.
Re: starting to become skeptical about RAPM, particularly about 1-year NPI RAPM. I get that, particularly when you see big swings occur. Find to bring those up. I would just emphasize again that it's not really a question whether RPM has a bias to it, and it's not really a question as to whether that bias would help or hurt Westbrook.
Re: Westbrook doing what he needs to without Durant. To some degree, that's what's so tough. Offensively you can't really object to the strategy of the moment, it's just that we're now more than a half decade into these two guys playing together, there are still issues, and these issues aren't likely to be made better by the directions Westbrook has grown this season. As such it's well and good to praise Westbrook, and in some ways I undoubtedly should back off, it's just that to me this OKC is going to go down as a true success based on what happens when Durant & Westbrook are healthy and playing together and I don't really see the sense of embracing any tactic this year that could get in the way of that.