RealGM

Just to re-iterate: although a player will get credit for all ballots cast for him, regardless of year specified, I still DO want you to specify the year you consider to be his peak.

Please specify your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ballot choice, and bold your selections for ease of tallying. Reasoning must be included.

OK, I'll kick things off with my tentative selections (not exactly set in stone):

1st ballot selection: Michael Jordan '91
The GOAT player in what I think is his best all-around season. At this stage of his career I feel he was still more or less at his physical peak, while at the same time had developed an excellent post-game and pretty well mastered his mid-range game, too. Additionally, he'd matured to fully appreciate the team aspect, as well as mastering other mental aspects of the game.
Statistical backing speaks for itself, imo:
Per 100 poss: 42.7 pts @ 60.6% TS, 8.8 reb, 8.1 ast, 3.5 stl, 0.8 blk, 3.8 tov.
PER 31.63, .3211 WS/48, 125 ORtg/102 DRtg (+23) in 37.0 mpg.
Then even better in the playoffs......
Per 100 poss: 41.8 pts @ 60.0% TS, 8.5 reb, 11.2 ast, 3.2 stl, 1.8 blk, 3.4 tov.
PER 32.04, .3325 WS/48, 127 ORtg/101 DRtg (+26) in 40.5 mpg.....on his way to an NBA title.
And this is when hand-checking, and dirty maulings (Pistons, Knicks) were allowed, too.


2nd ballot selection: Shaquille O'Neal '00
At a glance, his raw numbers look every bit as impressive as peak Jordan: 29.7 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 3.8 apg, 3.0 bpg w/ 57.4% FG. He led the league that year in PER (30.65), WS/48 (.283), OWS (11.7), DWS (7.0), BPM (+9.7), and VORP (+9.3). He did nearly the same in a whopping 43.5 mpg in the playoffs on his way to his first title.
Teams would have opposing centers/forwards lay a shoulder into him ABOVE THE FT-LINE when he came down the court, anything to force him to get the entry pass 1 or 2 feet further from the hoop than he wanted it......because if he got the ball within 4 feet of the hoop, you were already sunk (even though teams would swarm him with double or triple teams). He was just that dominant.


3rd ballot selection: Lebron James '13
I like this version of Lebron best because he was still at least nearly at his physical peak while having a MUCH improved outside shot, solid post-game, and was also arguably his best defensive season, imo.
PER 31.59, .322 WS/48, +11.6 BPM, 125 ORtg/101 DRtg (+24) in 37.9 mpg.
Per 100 possessions: 37.5 pts @ 64.0% TS, 11.2 reb, 10.1 ast, 4.2 tov.
Beasted in the playoffs to the tune of 25.9 ppg @ 58.5% TS, 8.4 rpg, 6.6 apg, and only 3.0 topg. And though Bosh/Allen saved his bacon in game 6, he was somewhat carrying them in the finals: although "only" 52.9% TS, was otherwise going for 25/11/7 with just 2.6 topg; in the two elimination games he had a triple-double in game 6, then a monster 37/12/4 with just 2 tov and 69.8% TS in game 7.
Really the only reason I don't have Bron's peak a little higher is because of hand-checking rules; I bear a touch of skepticism that he could have pulled off similar in Jordan's era, for instance.

I think of 4 guys in particular for highest peak of all time. MJ, Shaq, Wilt, Kareem at least statistically but in the end I feel MJ's 1991 was the greatest season and peak ever.

1st ballot selection: Michael Jordan '1991 - 31.5+ PER in the season, playoffs and finals and his finals was against another top 5 player all time and the #2 guy in the league. Also dominated the league in the season and dominated the playoffs with a fascinating record. 15-2

2nd ballot selection: Kareem 1971 - Dominated on the season, playoffs and also with a fascinating record of 12-2 in the playoffs.

3rd ballot selection:Open for debate - Shaq 2000, Wilt 1967, Lebron 2009, 2013, leaning towards Shaq 2000

--------- RS PER, WS48, --------- PER, WS48 playoffs
Jordan 91: 31.7, 0.32 -----------32.0, 0.33 (17 playoff game, title)
KAJ 1971: 29.0, 0.33, -----------25.0, 0.27 (14 playoff games, title)
Shaq 2000: 30.6, 0.28, --------- 30.5, 0.22 (23 playoff games, title)
Wilt 1967: 26.5, .285------------25.3, 0.25 (15 playoff games, title)

Regarding MJ 1991 vs Shaq 2000


MJ in the season = 20.30 Win Shares. Shaq = 18.65
MJ in the season = 31.63 PER, Shaq = 30.65


MJ in the playoffs = 4.77 Win Share, Shaq = 4.67
MJ in the playoffs = 32.04 PER, Shaq = 30.45


MJ in the finals = 31.5 PER and Shaq = 31.1


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=FinalsPerformances-7
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=FinalsPerformances-8

So these two were neck and neck.

MJ had over a 31.5 PER in the season, playoffs and finals in 1991


Wilt's 1967 was great as well however to me with it being his 8th best season PER wise and 7th best in the playoffs he kinda hurts him here. Also in the playoffs he was the 2nd leading scorer on his team and in the finals he was the 5th leading scorer on the team.

Remember scoring was probably Wilt's greatest strength and to be 5th in it on the team in the finals is major.

http://webuns.chez-alice.fr/finals/1967.htm#

PHI. G FG-FGA FT-FTA REB AST PF PTS
Greer 6 59-148 38-46 48 37 23 156
Walker 6 46-102 48-62 53 20 23 140
Jones 6 50-110 21-28 21 32 22 121
Cunningham 6 48-107 22-40 34 18 27 118
Chamberlain 6 42-75 22-72 171 41 16 106

Others to consider:

Hakeem 1994: 25.3, 0.210----------27.7, 0.208 (23 playoff games, title)
Duncan 2003: 26.9, 0.248------------28.4, 0.279 (24 playoff games, title)
Magic 1987: 27.0, 0.263-------------26.2, 0.265 (18 playoff games, title)
Bird 1986: 25.6, 0.244--------------23.9, 0.263 (23 playoff games, title)
Lebron James 2012:30.7, 0.298-------30.3, 0.284 (23 playoff games, title)
Lebron James 2013: 31.6, 0.322 -----28.1, 0.260 (23 playoff games, title)


To me for best peak it has to be one that didn't go down in the battle or needed another team to choke in the end. Afterall we are talking greatest peak here. Now if you were playing some all time great team and lost then that is different.
I would be more apt to use 2001 Shaq here instead of 2000 Shaq (as LA needed a choke on the other teams part to pull off the series, same for 2013 Lebron.), but the missed games hurt 2001 Shaq here as well.

2009 Lebron was great and could be the #1 peak with a great finals, but the one thing I will say is that we don't know how he would have played in the finals. He could have beaten Orlando but his finals in 2009 could have been like his 2011 Finals. Since the finals are the highest stage that plays an important factor here. Also it would be one thing losing to the 2008 Celtics, 2007 Spurs or even 2009 Lakers in 2009 or any team that actually won it all, but 2009 Orlando wasn't some great team especially with it's PG out for the series.

trex_8063 wrote:Really the only reason I don't have Bron's peak a little higher is because of hand-checking rules; I bear a touch of skepticism that he could have pulled off similar in Jordan's era, for instance.

Just going to put it out there, do you think LeBron would become a proportianatly better defender if allowed to hand-check?

My tentative ballot:

1st Ballot: Lebron James 08-09
Peak Lebron for me, carried a pretty meh cast to an elite regular season (SRS 8.68) before falling in the ECF, played spectacularly the whole way. Seemed to do everything for those Cavs. RS numbers: 40.8 pp100 @ +4.7 rTS 10.9 rp100 10.4 ap100 31.7 per .318 ws/48 13 BPM while leading the Cavs to 66 wins.

Stepped up his game even more in the post season:
47.5 pp100 @ +7.4 rTS 12.3 rp100 9.8 ap100 37.4 per .399 ws/48 18.2 BPM, in my opinion nobody could have done any more, it just wasn't enough.

2nd Ballot: Michael Jordan 90-91
The GOAT, in the season where his individual greatness came together with team greatness - 8.57 SRS (I think his late 80's seasons and first 3peat are very comparable individually). RS numbers: 42.7 pp100 @ +7.1 rTS 8.1 rp100 7.5 ap100 31.6 per .321 ws/48 10.8 BPM

PS (victory so richly deserved!): 41.8 pp100 @ +6.6 rTS 8.5 rp100 11.2 ap100 32 per .333 ws/48 13.8 BPM

3rd Ballot: Shaquille O'Neal 99-00
Once he got the ball the most unstoppable force in NBA history in my opinion, but there is the caveat that you have to get him the ball so he doesn't come out #1 to me. Another first year of a 3peat (8.41 SRS). RS numbers: 38.1 pp100 @ +5.5 rTS 17.5 rp100 4.9 ap100 30.6 per .283 ws/48 9.7 BPM

PS- also compared to the other two I've voted for so far I'm not super impressed with Shaq's postseason (I think the Blazers in particular did as good of job as can be expected slowing a legend at his peak): 37.6 pp100 @ +3.3 rTS 18.9 rp100 3.8 ap100 30.5 per .224 ws/48 7.2 BPM



So there are all my initial thoughts.

1st ballot selection: Wilt Chamberlain 1967
Stats:
45.5 mpg. 24.1 ppg. 21.3 TRB% (estimate) 7.8 apg. 68.%3 FG% 44.1% FT% 63.7 TS%
Playoffs:
47.9 mpg. 21.7 ppg. 23.5 TRB% (estimate) 9.0 apg. 57.9% FG% 38.8% FT% 54,6% TS%
The most dominant season ever for an individual player. Wilt anchor 76ers to the best record in NBA, 1st offense and 3rd defense (behind Russell Celtcs and Nate Warriors). He shot aburdaly good from the field (nobody averaged around 25 ppg with close to 70% FG). Also, this is the first year when Wilt didn't lead the league in ppg. Alex Hannum creates new offensive system around Wilt. He became "low-post playmaker". Average 8 apg. for a center is amazing accomplishement.
In playoffs he defeated 4 of the best players from 1960s. First is Oscar Robertson. His numbers vs Royals:
28.0 ppg, 26.5 rpg, 11 apg on 61.2 %FG/36.4 %FT/58.6 %TS
He averaged TRIPLE DOUBLE. At center position. Nobody can do that. To be fair, Royals was a bad defensive team in 1967, but still Oscar anchors one of the best offenses in the league. In second round they faced defending champions - Celtics. Numbers:
21.6 ppg, 32.0 rpg, 10.0 apg, 6.4 bpg on 55.6 %FG/50.9 %FT/56.1 %TS
Blocks numbers are from articles/newspapers etc. Another triple double performace. Against the best defensive team in the league and the best defensive player ever. He crushes Russell in every category. In finals 76ers defeated Nate and Barry Warriors. Stats:
17.6 ppg, 28.5 rpg, 6.8 apg on 56.0 %FG/30.6 %FT/49.7 %TS
While stats doesn't look as impressive, he faced the best post defender ever - Nate the Great.
Besides very bad FT shooting, Wilt was great at every aspect of the game and his 76ers is still probably the greatest team in history. In playoffs he faced strong competition and played great.
2nd ballot selection: Michael Jordan 1991
Stats:
37.0 mpg. 31.5 ppg. 9.5 TRB% 5.5 apg. 2.7 spg. 1.0 bpg. 53.9% FG% 31.2 3P% 85.1 FT% 2.5 tov.
Playoffs:
40.5 mpg. 31.1 ppg. 9.9 TRB% 8.4 apg. 2.4 spg. 1.4 bpg. 52.4% FG% 38.5 3P% 84.5 FT% 2.5 tov.
As trex said, this is Jordan a.k. the GOAT at his best. Still in psychical prime, his midrange game was better than ever before and he developed great post game. In playoffs he played great (outassisted Magic in finals looks very impressive). His competition wasn't as strong as Wilt's, but still he defeated defending champions Pistons, tough Knicks team and team with Magic in his prime.
He isn't 1st beacuse I think Wilt two-way impact is bigger than Jordan (massive defensive advantage).
3rd ballot selection: Shaquille O'Neil 2000
Stats:
40.0 mpg. 29.7 ppg. 18.3 TRB% 3.8 apg. 0.5 spg. 3.0 bpg. 57.4% FG% 0.00 3P% 52.4 FT% 2.8 tov.
Playoffs:
43.5 mpg. 30.7 ppg. 20.4 TRB% 3.1 apg. 0.6 spg. 2.4 bpg. 56.6% FG% 0.00 3P% 45.6 FT% 2.4 tov.
Shaq at his best. Defenders denied him from the ball (triple teams WITHOUT the ball) and he still scores 30 on 60%. DPOY-level defense (one of few his consistent defensive seasons) and all-time great level rebounding. In playoffs he didn't face strong competiton besides Portland (and this serie was below his standard to be fair) but that's not his fault. One of the best final permormace ever with not great team to be fair.

That's my choises

Guys I'm considering here (in no particular order):

00 Shaq
77 Kareem
93 Hakeem
92 Jordan
Maybe a LeBron season (13?)

Perhaps the Admiral will end up on my ballot too. I have a feeling Spaceman will make a great case for him sooner than later.

Note: As I said in the announcement thread, consistent with how I've felt in the last few months in general, I don't really feel comfortable ranking players pre-Kareem. Just not enough footage available for me to cast judgment. So by excluding a bunch of 60s greats from my ballots I am not trying to disrespect them. Rather, I'm trying to put together a list I'm confident in (from a perspective that I'd draft these player seasons in a certain order with a gun to my head, leaving no room to guess incorrectly), and based on the limited tape available, that won't be the case if I include those legends.

Jim Naismith wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:Michael Jordan '91
The GOAT player of all-time

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive_acronym

The acronym here isn't recursive.

I'd guess the implication is circular reasoning ("He's the greatest because he's the greatest ...). Which would be true if the quoted section (a) was the reasoning and (b) was with reference to his peak rather than his career.

Owly wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:Really the only reason I don't have Bron's peak a little higher is because of hand-checking rules; I bear a touch of skepticism that he could have pulled off similar in Jordan's era, for instance.

Just going to put it out there, do you think LeBron would become a proportianatly better defender if allowed to hand-check?

Excellent point, one which I often overlook (how players will be affected defensively by this rule-change), other than occasional speculation on how perimeter defenders like Joe Dumars might suffer for not being allowed to hand-check.

Upon reflection, though, no I don't think Lebron's gains as a defender would be equal to whatever losses he incurs as an offensive player. His greatest capacity to impact the game is on the offensive end (by a pretty handy margin); and as such he's got more to lose there than he has to gain defensively.

Owly wrote:

Jim Naismith wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:Michael Jordan '91
The GOAT player of all-time

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive_acronym

The acronym here isn't recursive.

I'd guess the implication is circular reasoning ("He's the greatest because he's the greatest ...). Which would be true if the quoted section (a) was the reasoning and (b) was with reference to his peak rather than his career.

Sorry, it's actually https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAS_syndrome.

Owly wrote:

Jim Naismith wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:Michael Jordan '91
The GOAT player of all-time

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recursive_acronym

The acronym here isn't recursive.

I'd guess the implication is circular reasoning ("He's the greatest because he's the greatest ...). Which would be true if the quoted section (a) was the reasoning and (b) was with reference to his peak rather than his career.

Sheesh.....grammar police on me.
This is one of those instances in which the simplest explanation is true: it was merely an oversite. I began writing "the greatest of all-time" and accidentally subbed in "GOAT" for "greatest" and missed it during the review.

trex_8063 wrote:

Owly wrote:

trex_8063 wrote:Really the only reason I don't have Bron's peak a little higher is because of hand-checking rules; I bear a touch of skepticism that he could have pulled off similar in Jordan's era, for instance.

Just going to put it out there, do you think LeBron would become a proportianatly better defender if allowed to hand-check?

Excellent point, one which I often overlook (how players will be affected defensively by this rule-change), other than occasional speculation on how perimeter defenders like Joe Dumars might suffer for not being allowed to hand-check.

Upon reflection, though, no I don't think Lebrons gains as a defender would be equal to whatever losses he incurs as an offensive player. His greatest capacity to impact the game is on the offensive end (by a pretty handy margin); and as such he's got more to lose there than he has to gain defensively.

Agreed that Lebron would be more negatively effected by changes like this as his offense is greater than his defense. In this instance I think anything Lebron might lose from handchecking would be made up by the illegal defense and 5 second changes(though in that era I would say Miami Lebron would have been his peak).

Very excited for this project. I am coming in with an open mind so I will be open to being swayed by posters making rationale cases for 'their guy'. Right now for the #1 spot I am starting to analyze with Shaq (00), LeBron (09, 12, 13), MJ (89, 90, 91).

I know I am in the minority here as I am higher than most on 12 LeBron but to me the combination of him being an offensive an defensive anchor that season makes it better than 09.

Shaq (00) doesn't need an explanation and might be the GOAT peak arguably.

MJ is a confusing one for me. I am looking forward to some good posts on him and hopefully we don't fall into the trap of not really analyzing him and just talking about his 'GOAT-ness' as it happens in most of his threads on this board.

back to basketball here...

( I'll be editing as I go along )

1. 2000 Shaq

This year was Shaq on a mission. His defensive impact was 1-2 levels higher in the regular season than before thanks to constant effort and utilizing his size to become a great interior defender. That made his impact huge this year. His offense was so gravitational that at all times he could have a guy open for 3 on the perimeter almost anytime he got low post position. Not helping on low post Shaq was like asking for BBQ chicken.

His play was excellent in the RS and held up extremely well in the playoffs as he played a GOAT level Finals to cap it all off.

Extremely underrated stat:

40 MPG and only 3 games missed in the Regular Season and he upped that to 42.3 in the playoffs.

RS/100

Box score

38.1/17.5/4.9/0.6/3.9 on 57.8 TS%

RS advanced: 115/95 ORTG/DRTG, 11.3/24.8/18.5 O/D/T ( Reb%) 19.3 AST% / 9.9 TOV%. 11.7 OWS 7.0 DWS, 18.6 WS. 0.283 WS/48 and 9.7 BPM ( 6.2/3.5 ) 9.3 VORP

2. Michael Jordan 1991
3. LeBron James 2009

Advantage Jordan because of his more reliable jumper and off ball game that makes him have more options than LeBron if teams apply different tactics such as sagging off him hardcore. While lebrons jumper was on in the 2009 playoffs, in a vacuum Jordan was more reliable of a shooter and his post up game, off ball game would be ood counters to some of the no sagging schemes that frustrated Prime LeBron in general.

I am really hoping to see this project focused on discussion rather than specific votes. Glad to see a couple people are posting without making a vote yet. I won't be at my computer until tomorrow, but for now I will cast a ballot and read the discussion and participate to see if my votes will change. That said:

1. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 1991 Michael Jordan (although I'd consider 92 as well, want to see some opinions on his D especially fplii and SSB who are high on this season)
3. 2013 LeBron James
4. 1967 Wilt
5. 1995 David Robinson

These are all the guys I'm presently considering for this spot.

EDIT: Should be clear Shaq is my runaway favorite for #1 right now. I feel fairly strongly about it.

Well this can go 1 of 3 ways.

You can go with Jordan 91

you can do a fastball and say michael jordan

or you can swing a curveball by saying michael Jeffrey Jordan.


For Jordan, I believe its the fact that he could do so much that no one could see.

ill just add my arguement in another page here.
I believe that he does alot of things that no one sees, which is a testament to his bball iq, and his overall skillset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8MP6839B78

ill just put in a few plays where I think jordan is underrated in bball iq

in 2:20, the timing of his jab step was superb. he pretty much time it exactly as his defender was coming off the screen, so he was rushing back to get to jordan, and was left off balance. the window to use this jab step to basically get him off-balance, in this situation, was literally less than half a second. the defender had to over commit to one side, and jordan simply bursted past him in the other side.
in around 2:30, he made a really subtle head fake. while this by itself is quite normal, though the way he did it was quick and pretty much perfect, the important thing to note is that there was a guard literally right next to him that had barely even started running to the corner, making it seem much more legitimate. he basically read what his teammate was going to do before his teammate himself knew it.

in 3:48 ish, there was a really subtle head fake. it was hard to see even when slowing down teh video to 0.25 speed, that got the defender leaning. not only that, but he did a push through crossover that really was just long enough to avoid the defenders hands, but short enough that jordan kept full control/full speed. considering that he scored over 1.9ppp in transition according to some studies, it seems like he would do this on a majority of his transition plays, its just so hard to see. Its more clearly seen int eh 4 minute mark, and its obvious that the defender expected him to go the other way, as he shifted his foot jsut enough so jordan could get past him.

in 4:50, its another show of how he times his jab steps. he basically timed it as his defender was still approaching him, and his left foot was in the air, which made him lean a little, once again.

in 6:45, this is a reason why I think he was much better in the early ninetys than post baseball. normally, even athletic players like westbrook and Wall start "preparing" their fastbreak shot around teh ft line. They only really prepare it furthur when they are literally completely open, to the point where a clear path foul is possible. With Jordan, he regularly, as long as he had a clear few steps to gather, prepared his transition buckets from the 3 point line, and simply used a mixture of his long arms and long strides to just simply find a perfect angle to jump between the gaps of the defense.

6:53 demonstrates his ability to basically understand the mindset of his defender. it seems just like a simple hesitation, and then a crossover. in my opinion, he did something brilliant. he basically played the whole game at full throttle, either making it a point to really get past the defender completely, with room to spare, or take a jab and swing the other way. What he did here was go at a medium pace. at this point, his defender had basically been manhandled, so he pretty much really overcommitted. had he done this earlier, i doubt this would have worked. his ability to change pace multiple times in one possession was frankly astounding. he basically kept a medium pace this time to pretty much displace his defender, and get to the basket at the same time. Something else, is that he used his patented tounge while going during the hesitation, basically making it seem like he would 100% go at that certain direction. something I find unique is how he kept his head low throughout. imo, other superstars usually keep their head a little bit higher during their hesitation moves, making it seem more obvious imo. (a general concept I learned is the lowest head always wins)

7:25 demonstrates his ingenuity. he uses a referee as a screen. he also gets into an argument with Danny Ainge, basically meaning he would have won if a fight started, and his reputation would have been bolstered.

at around 7:50, he made the most subtle move of the game. first of all, he timed this perfectly, just as his defender was lifting his foot that he wanted to "move away" Secondly, the speed at which he did this head fake was probably the fastest one so far. while he was bringing the ball down. he actually made it seem like he would bring it down to the right, and moved his head very slightly to the right, first, if one slows the footage down and watches frame by frame.



he was just flawless really.



Number 2 would be Shaq. 01
I recall 1 season, the 96-97 season, they were 9th in offfensive rating and 8th in defensive rating.
the next year, with a continuity rate of 80 ish, they were 2nd in off rtg and 1th in def rating.

consider that he wasnt at his peak (he would gain 50-60 ish more pounds)
and we have a winner.



I would guess that I would pick Lebron 09 next, though I rank him wierdly, anywhere from 3rd in peak to below kobe, though thats the fanboy in me most likely.
his box metric (a stat I dont find perfect, but nevertheless) is the highest of all time at his peak. I think that speaks for itself. also, his team won less than 20 games when he left.



Honorable mentions to

Russell (unparalleled defense impact... basically hakeem, taller, faster, with drugs and more athletic, smarter bball iq too, defensively of course. IMO, the myth that wilt would have won 11 championships with russells teams is severly flawed. Wilt couldnt really anchor a bad offensive team to be great, but he could improve a team of course. But the celtic's teams needed defense. I recall that offensively, even with all those hall of famers, they were actually as bad as wilt's teams, well, without wilt in some years.)

- also, did anyone notice the huge offensive rating average increase from the 60s to 70s? 98.1 was good for 4th in the 60s. in the 70s, all of a sudden that became 100.1, and in the very late 70s, 101.6 was good for 19th out of 22.

Wilt (team success is what barred him, but the year he went 17-65, he was on a 48 win team, that had a 76 continuity rate from those 2 years. was it a testament to him trying vs not trying? he had a heart problem that year, but technically, his raw stats were better, so it might be a testement to feeding him being an ineffecient offense. also, the offesne of the 76ers were actually unaffected by his departure, with them recieving archie clark, who scored 13 ppg in 26 minutes, darrell imhoff, who averaged 9 and 10 in 29 minutes, and Jerry Chambers, who averaged 2 seasons of serving hte country, the military, and their offensive rating stayed exactly the same, both in position and in actual rating, though their defense deccreased from 1st to 6th. I recall a book called Basketball on Paper, Rules and Tools for Perormance Analysis, touched on this. in his 8 assists years, when he left, the offensive rating stayed the same.
Something I would like to ask though, how many times has a team's defensive/offensive rating gone down/up because a player left?
I know Mutombo and Rodman had instances of this happening, though in their defense,
Wait, nevermind, I misread the rating, Mutombo with Atlanta was 102, out of atlanta was 111, so I failed on that lol. Rodman didnt improve his team in the last year with the spurs though) - mostly arguing against to justify why I didnt put him in the top 3. the fact that We have to do that cements him in a honerable mention position.
And the question remains... When was his peak? in terms of team impact (bear with me) it could actually be argued that it was his laker years.


Tim Duncan
(literally because I made a pun about someone dunking and his name was coincidently Timothy, so he was, Tim Duncin)
(in terms of Box plus, it was stated by bball reference that players that use communication, leadership, and positioning arent accurately placed and are actually worse than normal in terms of box plus.
but anyway. even in his prime, his leadership qualities might put him over the edge)
In terms of RAPM, I believe that has trouble tracking a few "constants" too. Im not quite sure how it works, but it takes plays from other players and plugs it in right? if thats what it does, then a few problems, in my opinion, are things like, mindset, etc. etc. Im probably wrong about this, but for example, if someone is forced to take 100 shots, in game, (obviously extreme) the curve of shots made will go down for some players more than other "stars"
though it is definately the most intuitive stat.
Also, I beieve that certain variables makes some claims of the stat kind of, well, not accurate.
obviously its one of if not the best stat available, but still.



Definately missed a few

So, we're finally underway...

It's between '91 Jordan and '09 LeBron for me. It's extremely close and I won't vote just yet. As a Jordan fan, I'm naturally skewed towards him, but I want to give James a fair shake. I'm also considering '88-'90 (especially '89 and '90) Jordan, but I'll probably end up going with '91, because that's when he had his best playoff run, and improved his off-ball game.

Like someone alluded to in another thread - we mostly agree that bigmen are naturally more valuable defensively than guards/fowards, because they control the paint and can take away some of the highest percentage shots - shots at rim or 5-10 feet away from the basket, but isn't it also like guards/forwards are naturally more valuable offensively? I mean - sure, bigmen take more high percentage shots because they play closer to the hoop, but on the other hand, they have to depend on guards/forwards to feed the ball to them. Personally, I believe that's the case, and because great offense beats great defense (because an offensive player takes an action according to his own will, while a defensive player can only react to the moves offensive player makes - the offensive player basically dictates how the game will be played).

Because of this theory, I think that Jordan and James are a little more valuable than O'Neal, Chamberlain, Olajuwon etc.

Oh, and one more thing - I can't really see peak Shaq over LeBron. We have a lot of numbers for both guys (not just boxscore, but also RAPM), and LeBron beats Shaq in vast majority of those stats. Same with MJ and Shaq (except we don't have RAPM for late 80s/early 90s MJ).

This is not to say that I think Shaq has "no case at all" - no, I believe he has a case, but right now, I don't feel like I could be convinced by anyone that Shaq > Jordan and LeBron.

1. 91 Jordan
2. 13 James
3. 00 Shaq

Ballot 1: 1991 Micheal Jordan. Raw numbers regular season: 31.5/6/5.5 2.3 stl, 2.5 tov, advanced stats: 60.5 ts%, 31.63 PER this PER is the 5th highest single season PER of all time. Played all 82 games.

Playoff numbers: 31.1/6.4/8.4 apg to only 2.5 tov! 60 ts% 32 PER. No player has a playoff PER this high over 4 full playoff series. Lebron had a higher PER but in 14 games over 3 series, Kareem in 77 over an 11 game sample, and Mikan in 54 over 13 games. It may be a little arbitrary but that's the highest PER over a playoff run of 15+ games played. No team took the Bulls to more than 5 games in the playoffs, and 2 of the series were sweeps. Mj's finals stats: 31.2/6.6/11.4 apg on 61.2 ts%. Can a finals be anymore well rounded than what he did there? I choose this version of MJ, because i think he had his best balance of volume and efficiency, smarter, more complete offensively than in previous years. Motor was still very high. His 2nd highest PER of his career, highest playoff PER.

I like to go with MJ first, because he's imo a better scorer than the other candidates, and you get added value with his ball handling and playmaking when being compared to a big like Shaq or Hakeem. I put him over Lebron mainly because this title run beats any of Lebron's. Regular season seems more or less a wash imo, but i think with both scoring skills and playmaking considered Mj is a bit better offensively than LBJ. Its a common belief that Lebron is a better defender due to versatility but i'm not sure, i think Mj is more suited to guard smaller players so that end is close.

Ballot 2: 2000 Shaq. Simpy the most physically dominant player ever at his peak, no disrespect to Wilt Chamberlain.

Stats: 29.7/13.6/3.8 3 blk, 57.8 ts% 30.6 PER 79 games played, elite defender.

Playoffs: Title, 30.7/15.4/3.1 2.4 blk 55.6 ts% 30.5 PER. Undoutebly a top 5 finals performance ever imo, 38/16.7 on 57.6 ts%. Arguably the best finals performance. Simply put no one could stop or even contain a peak Shaq.

Ballot 3: 2012 Lebron James. 09 may be his best statistically, and athletically considering regular season plus playoffs, but in 2012 he was a more mature leader, smarter and complete player. His 09 playoffs were arguably the best 14 game stetch ever, but still its a 14 game sample.

2012 Regular season: 27.1/7.9/6.2 60.5 ts%, 30.7 PER. I like 2012 over 2013 because his playoff run was superior, and the way he struggled against the Spurs in a lot of that series alarmed me. 2012 was simply a Lebron who wouldn't be denied, his game 6 against Boston was possibly the greatest game i ever witnessed live. He just couldn't miss from anywhere on the floor.

I used to have Hakeem over Lebron but i've realized his regular season simply isn't up to par.

mischievous wrote:Ballot 1: 1991 Micheal Jordan. Raw numbers regular season: 31.5/6/5.5 2.3 stl, 2.5 tov, advanced stats: 60.5 ts%, 31.63 PER this PER is the 5th highest single season PER of all time. Played all 82 games.

Playoff numbers: 31.1/6.4/8.4 apg to only 2.5 tov! 60 ts% 32 PER. No player has a playoff PER this high over 4 full playoff series. Lebron had a higher PER but in 14 games over 3 series, Kareem in 77 over an 11 game sample, and Mikan in 54 over 13 games. It may be a little arbitrary but that's the highest PER over a playoff run of 15+ games played. No team took the Bulls to more than 5 games in the playoffs, and 2 of the series were sweeps. Mj's finals stats: 31.2/6.6/11.4 apg on 61.2 ts%. Can a finals be anymore well rounded than what he did there? I choose this version of MJ, because i think he had his best balance of volume and efficiency, smarter, more complete offensively than in previous years. Motor was still very high. His 2nd highest PER of his career, highest playoff PER.

I like to go with MJ first, because he's imo a better scorer than the other candidates, and you get added value with his ball handling and playmaking when being compared to a big like Shaq or Hakeem. I put him over Lebron mainly because this title run beats any of Lebron's. Regular season seems more or less a wash imo, but i think with both scoring skills and playmaking considered Mj is a bit better offensively than LBJ. Its a common belief that Lebron is a better defender due to versatility but i'm not sure, i think Mj is more suited to guard smaller players so that end is close.

Ballot 2: 2000 Shaq. Simpy the most physically dominant player ever at his peak, no disrespect to Wilt Chamberlain.

Stats: 29.7/13.6/3.8 3 blk, 57.8 ts% 30.6 PER 79 games played, elite defender.

Playoffs: Title, 30.7/15.4/3.1 2.4 blk 55.6 ts% 30.5 PER. Undoutebly a top 5 finals performance ever imo, 38/16.7 on 57.6 ts%. Arguably the best finals performance. Simply put no one could stop or even contain a peak Shaq.

Ballot 3: 2012 Lebron James. 09 may be his best statistically, and athletically considering regular season plus playoffs, but in 2012 he was a more mature leader, smarter and complete player. His 09 playoffs were arguably the best 14 game stetch ever, but still its a 14 game sample.

2012 Regular season: 27.1/7.9/6.2 60.5 ts%, 30.7 PER. I like 2012 over 2013 because his playoff run was superior, and the way he struggled against the Spurs in a lot of that series alarmed me. 2012 was simply a Lebron who wouldn't be denied, his game 6 against Boston was possibly the greatest game i ever witnessed live. He just couldn't miss from anywhere on the floor.

I used to have Hakeem over Lebron but i've realized his regular season simply isn't up to par.

Some good data here. Thanks for doing that work.

I agree with most of your conclusion....im thinkin i would probably choose '13 over '12 Lebron due to better team regular season success and also having full 82 game season and '13 being a full regular season rather than a shortened season due to lockout