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Dr Spaceman wrote:.

eminence wrote:Not sure on the postseason stats for Wilt, but in general his scoring dropped a bit while his rebounding/passing/defense all picked up a bit.

Duncan PS: 30.6 pp100 @ 5.8 rTS 19.1 rp100 6.6 ap100 28.4 per .279 ws/48
Wilt PS: 25.3 per .253 ws/48
Hakeem PS: 31.3 pp100 @ 3.2 rTS 17.1 rp1oo 5.8 ap100 26.7 per .221 ws/48

JordansBulls wrote:
Wilt's 1967 was great as well however to me with it being his 8th best season PER wise and 7th best in the playoffs he kinda hurts him here. Also in the playoffs he was the 2nd leading scorer on his team and in the finals he was the 5th leading scorer on the team.

Remember scoring was probably Wilt's greatest strength and to be 5th in it on the team in the finals is major.

Dr Spaceman wrote:Impact

Okay, now to the meat of my argument: impact. Because Robinson may have had more of it than anyone, ever. We can start with the big picture and then sand down to the miniscale and microscale. First, Robinson’s arrivals and departures always coincided with massive swings in team performance. Not surprising for a star necessarily, but the magnitude and consistency of these shifts is certainly worth discussing. First, David arrives in 1989-90: the 21-61, -7.45 SRS Spurs suddenly make a quantum leap to 56-26, with a 3.58 SRS. That’s an SRS jump of over 10!!! Their defense jumps from +0.1 (13th) to -3.9 (3rd) and their offense from -6.9 to -0.1. Certainly other additions like Cummings and Ellis helped a lot, but how many other rookies have ever done anything like this?

Dr Spaceman wrote:We have a variety of on/off data for 1995. Unfortunately, we don’t have RAPM,

eminence wrote:

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

Great stuff Spaceman, just to clarify quick for me, you're supporting '95 as David's peak right?

eminence wrote:Starting in the next rounds could you post the list to date in the opening post?

theonlyclutch wrote:I am thinking of 96 as Robinson 's peak due to his better showing in the playoffs, but I would like your take first.

Dr Spaceman wrote:

eminence wrote:

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

Great stuff Spaceman, just to clarify quick for me, you're supporting '95 as David's peak right?

Correct

Dr Spaceman wrote:Hakeem is another interesting one, and I’m not sure how to contextualize his offense. I don’t think his defense was on the level of David, and as I’ve explained David was a ridiculous offensive player in his own right. hakeem’s offensive impact looks terrible in his later years, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say it wasn’t all THAT in his peak years.

SideshowBob wrote:

PaulieWal wrote:Basketball ability wise, yes, 2014 LeBron was more diverse offensively but 12 LeBron still averaged 27 PPG on 61% TS. As an overall player I am taking 12 LeBron over 14 for an entire season. If we are talking about one game, I will probably go with 13 LeBron.

But this is completely misleading AND putting too much stock in the box-score. The way teams defended 12 Lebron and 14 Lebron was very different, 14 Lebron just demands SO MUCH more attention, and to boil it down to 27 on 61% TS vs. 27 on 65% TS makes the difference look a lot smaller than it actually is.

There is literally nothing on the offensive end that 2012 did better than 2014.

Among his 4 Miami seasons, here is how I would rank these abilities:

-Creating midrange jumpers off the dribble - 14/13, 11, 12
-Creating three point jumpers off the dribble - 14, 13, 11/12
-Getting to the basket off the dribble and collapsing the defense - 14, 13, Large Gap, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B basket creation - 14, Large Gap, 13, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B playmaking - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Low/Mid-post face-up/triple threat - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Creating midrange jumpers off the ball (off screens, off curls, via movement, etc.) - 14, 13, 12/11
-Hard/random cuts to the basket - 14, small gap, 13, 12, 11
-Spot-up 3 point shooting - 14/13, Large gap, 11, 12
-Finishing at the basket - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Transition finishing - 14/13, 12, 11
-Transition playmaking - roughly even
-PnR playmaking - 14/13, 12, 11
-PnR creation - 14/13, gap, 12, 11

Again, the kind of attention defenses put towards slowing down 2014 Lebron was just vastly different from 2012. Even if we're talking strictly box-score line, the kind of scoring numbers 2014 Lebron would have put up in the RS and PS if he had been defended the same way as 2012 was would have been mind-boggling (but of course, this would be idiotic on the part of defenses).

There's just a huge gulf in slashing ability between 11/12 and 13/14. His PnR mentality in 2011 and 2012 is all about patience, hope that defenders over commit and try to force rotations, take advantage of the attention that Wade (who when healthy was probably more disruptive as an offensive player in 2012 than Lebron was, but no longer had the stamina to sustain it) and Bosh draw, and swing it over to the shooters, almost never to get into the paint himself and force a collapse. In 2011, he's only getting into the paint when A.) there's a wide open lane, B.) in transition, and C.) starting to find seams off the ball for hard cuts (this starts happening later in the season), everything else is pull up in the midrange/from 3 occasionally (though this is phased out later in the season as he becomes more selective with his shots) and the occasional spot-up, otherwise very little off-ball activity. This is essentially his entire 2011 offensive game.

In 2012, we get more of the same, but he's added two additional tools to allow him to get to the basket. A.) He's begun fiddling in the post (but overall his post-game is highly overrated, he's got a half-decent right jump-hook, but largely he's reliant on baseline turnarounds over the right shoulder), and B.) he's shed a tiny bit of weight and has enough explosion to occasionally catch defenders off-guard in short triple-threat blowbys. Still not an elite slasher, and the larger problem is that outside of 10 feet, his jumpshot has actually regressed to pre-09 levels (his 3PT% is inflated this year due to selective shooting, he was a better outside shooter in 09/10/11/13/14/15). The improvements were enough that he's a slightly better offensive player than 2011, but he just DOES NOT have apply the kind of basket pressure that forces collapses and dynamic strategy implementation (drop the PnR, strongside paint overload, etc.) through his slashing that 13/14 do (as do 08/09/10/15).

No one defends him the way he was defended by Boston back in 08-10 and the way almost every sound team plays him now, because it was not necessary! There was no need to take the hazard of helping off the corners to try and wall of Lebron from getting to the basket at will because he was simply not going to be able to do it. Then, 13 Lebron comes around having shed more weight and regained much of his lost explosiveness and boom, he's getting to the basket at will and finishing damn near 80% when he gets there. The EV on a Lebron drive now skyrockets, as does the volume of these drives. With no help, this may be the deadliest consistent attack option from the wing that the league has ever seen, particularly considering the kind of shooting (Allen/Battier/Bosh/Miller/etc.) and movement (Wade/Allen) that Miami surrounded him with in 2013. He also makes major strides in his jumpshooting all-around, becoming an elite spot-up outside shooter, elite midrange shooter, and regaining his pullup 3 point shooting ability from pre-2012. The post-game is perhaps very slightly more refined, but the big change is that now he's able to utilize his quickness advantage to get to the basket as well.

And what was the result of all of this? Miami's offense and Lebron both look like the GOAT for like 50-60 games. The PS numbers are misleading, 2013 is absolutely a better postseason run than 2012. The decline in numbers from the RS is largely due to Wade's deteriorated health. His constant movement/cutting/curling action was absolutely CRUCIAL in driving the Miami offense, which dipped from like +10 in the 2nd half of the RS to +9ish in the postseason, but dropped quite dramatically in terms of ORTG. This seems like a small difference, but moving the needle from +9 to +10 is insanely hard to do, and a one-point shift at that level is like the equivalent of moving a 0 to a +3; simply put it takes a hell of an offensive player to pull that off, and Wade's decline can be blamed for that drop off. That's not to say I want to crucify Wade, health was clearly an issue, but this is what I would point to first for the seemingly "underwhelming" nature of that PS run.

Typically, when well coached defenses wall-off the paint, it is the corner shooters they will sag off of in order to reinforce the interior, and rely on sound rotations/recoveries to compensate. Lebron is typically able to make this strategy pay as he's so gifted at manipulating those rotations to the point where he's able to hit that corner guy in a manner that allows him to shoot it before a recovery. However, the SG in this situation that was providing spacing was not a 3pt shooter, it was Wade with his relentless middle/interior action. When he's playing healthy, this isn't a problem, in fact it adds a layer of dynamism to such an offense, beyond the conventional SG standing in the corner. BUT when he's NOT healthy, it screws the offense over to a greater degree; because his man can stay in the middle and not have to be concerned if/when he's left wide-open outside because he's not hitting that shot at a rate that justifies covering it as opposed to stopping Lebron ALL game long, so long as James/Wade shared the court.

San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Chicago ALL took advantage of this, and we saw the effect on Lebron's box-score line, it didn't look anything like the godly stats we were used to seeing from Jan-April. Yet there was really no major change in how Lebron was approaching the game (other than when he just started firing off from outside when defenders went under in games 4/7 against SAS). His pressure on those 3 defenses and his impact on Miami's offense was largely unchanged from that insane RS run, but the circumstances did not allow him to continue to pile up box-score numbers. HOWEVER, guess what team did not play him that way. Indiana, the best defensive team in the league in 2013. They relied on their strong perimeter personnel to simply play him straight-up, and hoped that Hibbert's strong rotations would deter his forays into the paint. Unsurprisingly, this didn't work. Lebron had his best box-score series of the 2013 run and the Indiana defense was essentially lit up.

At this point I've begun to stray off topic, so let me be clear as to what I am trying to illustrate. 2013 was a superior postseason run and performance by Lebron than 2012 was, and taking the box-score performance differences between the two as the opposite conclusion is plain and simple wrong. This is not a matter of preference, there are very real trackable things going on ON the court that justify this position. Simply put, the insane strategies that 3 of his 4 2013 opponents used to try and wall him off from the paint were only moderately successful (if at all) due to the declined performance of the surrounding cast, but were conducive to weaker looking stats. 2012 Lebron just lacked the abilities to even need such strategies being employed against him, and the fact that 2013 WAS needing such strategies is in itself a HUGE indicator of 2013's vast superiority.

Now, the reason this pertains to 2014 Lebron is because 2014 Lebron was ****ing even better than 2013 (talking about just offense here). He shed a bit more weight and became even more of a slashing threat (not as big of a jump as 12->13), but more importantly, his skill game was taken to a whole new level - the spot-up 3 point shooting was about the same but he got better at moving off the ball to get himself these shots. The pullup three-point shooting was even better than 13 (the 3P% decline from 13->14 is due to him taking more 3 pointers off the dribble, not a decline in shooting ability). But of course, the biggest improvement was the post-game. I've spoken verbatim on how I think his 12 post-up ability was overrated, and following the 13 Finals I think one of the first things I highlighted was the need for him to make the back-to-basket game something he was truly good at instead of just something he could say he had in his arsenal. And boy, did he do so; the improvement in footwork was just night-and-day - he's no Kobe or Hakeem, but there's a clear fluidity as opposed to the robotic-ness of years past, and that drop-step is just murderous. He improved his smarts down there as well; his ability to seal off his man and take advantage of fronting was deadly, getting good low-post positioning is underrated and he became one of the best at doing so. He also improved his playmaking sense from down there, as he got more comfortable/patient in drawing defenders and then making a quick pass-out for a perimeter swing (hockey assist) as opposed to trying to make a risky direct feed to the open man.

Quite simply put, these improvements meant that there was yet another gap in the pressure that 14 James applied to defenses vs. 13 Lebron, and we've already established the massive improvement that 13 was over the other Miami years. He's got the experience of the 13 finals to allow him to tackle teams that employ that kind of strategy, and notably, throughout the regular season, we saw a huge uptick in the amount of teams that were willing to cover him this way, and yet it barely mattered.

At this point, the offensive gap between 14 and 12 is vast, more than enough IMO to overcome the defensive advantage of 12. I've come to value his consistency on that end in 2012 quite a bit more than I did at the time, but I just can't brush aside the kind of heights that his 14 offense is touching. This is the only version of Lebron offensively that I'd consider on par with peak Jordan; other seasons come close (09/10/13), but they don't quite matchup with his insane 90-93 ability (though Lebron closes the gap through defense).

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JLei wrote:I agree with most of this post but I can meet you guys in a middle ground. Why his results so outweighed what his actual basketball abilities were was because he started dabbling as a 4 and with the post game.

Teams reacted very poorly to both due to unfamiliarity and the fact that even 12 Bron with his diminished abilities is an insane mismatch at the 4. He improved faster than opponents could scout him in 13/14 but 12 Bron would have struggled against the schemes teams eventually developed to stop him at the 4 but got tons of easy opportunities because it was new wrinkle.

Some examples of what I mean.
-Teams disrespected Bron and switched a lot of Bron/ Battier pick and rolls precisely due to the reasons SSB is talking about. Bron is going to have an easier time beating Brandon Bass one on one than Paul Pierce.
-Well **** Bron outweighs the guy he is guarding by 40 pounds we should probably double team the post. Bron posts up to find open shooters more so than just shoot the baseline fadeaway. (Finals was an exaggerated example of this since Harden and Durant really couldn't handle Bron down there but most of his post ups were more to facilitate than to score).
-Wait a minute Bron is setting a screen???? How do I defend this???? PANIC!!. Then you just see him slip and get an easy layup.

Good coaching by Spo, compressed schedules due to the lockout, no practice means that teams never had a chance to really practice a scheme to stop this at all. And it was a dabble in the regular season but enough to get him a bit more efficiency/ box score stats. Then when they went all in due to Bosh's injury and Bron at the 4 ended up merking Indiana, Boston and OKC but teams hadn't caught up yet in terms of how to handle it.

That's my main theory on why results so outweighed his abilities that year. You can say Lebron took advantage of how defenses were guarding him/ unable to guard him at the 4 and that's why it was such an effective season and I wouldn't disagree with you. I'd also say that he was no where close to the ability he had in 09-10, 13-15.

ElGee wrote:Bird and Magic: I encountered a Larry Bird stat recently that floored me a bit. In 1988 (considered to be the end of Bird's prime, or slightly after his peak), the Celtics offensive rating with Kevin McHale in the lineup was...

117.1 (+9.4 to league).

Those would both be records for a full season (McHale played in 64 games). The highest team rating on record for a season is 115.6. (87 Lakers) The greatest distance from league average is +9.2 (04 Dal). The 87 Lakers were +7.3 FTR, and their team was a beacon of health all year.

Of course, most people consider 86 Bird's peak -- not sure how much they differentiate on offense but defensively he was a better team defender still. Well, McHale missed 17 games that year as well and the Celtics were a 110 (+3.1) offense during that time...and a +9.6 SRS team. Scott Wedman replaced McHale in the starting lineup and they just slid Bird to PF. What did Bird do there?

Averaged 27-12-8 57.4% TS 3.1 TOV 7.8 FTA/g 2.1 stls and 0.8 blks in those games. Ho hum stuff.

Now, you can see where the 87 Lakers offense parks itself in the playoffs: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/12/19/the-best-playoff-offenses-since-1980/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Right near the top of the 3-pt era at +10.5. For comparison, the 86 Celtics were +8.2 and the 85 Celtics were +8.5.

In short, I believe these to be the best passers AND two best offensive players in NBA history.

Bird is perhaps the highest portable offensive player there is: he's a GOAT-level off-the-ball player, not in the Reggie Miller mold, but ITO of movement and position through the post and out onto the wing for spacing. He's a ridiculously good rebounder because of this. He's a GOAT-level outlet passer if you want to run. He's a GOAT-level trailer in semi-transition. He's a great post player. He's great off picks. His passing is freakish. He can clearly flourish at either forward position. At his peak, he's still giving you quality defense with positioning and defensive rebounding (it wanes as his body wears down IMO).

For Magic, you give him the keys to the car and get out of the way. Although early Magic's career demonstrates how powerful his GOAT-level passing can be even when Norm Nixon was still handling the ball more. Peak Magic -- unarguably 1987 -- developed his shot so well that he was a major treat to score from the outside and from the line. People have a misconception that Magic was a transition-only offensive threat ("Showtime"), but he was deadly in the halfcourt because of his use of screens and mismatches against smaller players. He is virtually un-guardable, calls his own number efficiently and like Bird, it seems as if he can drop into any system and help "run" the offense.

Mostly due to shot selection, I consider Magic's offensive peak to slightly higher than Bird's. The defensive difference (Magic is a minor liability) makes the peaks very hard for to distinguish. I'll be looking for arguments to help me decide one way or another (do people have these peaks clearly separated in their minds??)

Quotatious wrote:

theonlyclutch wrote:I am thinking of 96 as Robinson 's peak due to his better showing in the playoffs, but I would like your take first.

Spaceman will give you his own answer, obviously, and I'm sure it'll be a damn good one, but I just want to say that Robinson didn't really have a better showing in the '96 playoffs compared to '95. His overall numbers for those playoffs are misleading, because he really wasn't consistent with his play - he destroyed the Suns in round one (they were very poor defensively, ranked 23rd of 29 teams), but then had a mediocre series against the Jazz (Utah was #8 in DRtg). Didn't even average 20 ppg or 10 rpg, and shot only 52.6% TS.

In '95, he had a mediocre series in the first round, but he faced Mutombo. Robinson's offensive game wasn't really that well-suited as a #1 offensive option in the postseason, to begin with, and then you factor in that he faced the DPOY at his position...Anyway, the Spurs still swept the Nuggets quite easily.

Then, he had a great series against the Lakers in the second round.

His performance in the WCF against Houston is underrated. He wasn't horrible by any means. I'd say better than he was in the '96 Utah series.