Peaks Project Secondary Thread: to determine Years

[trex_8063]

Hey guys, we've finally had our first inducted player where we'll need to reach on consensus on which year was his prime. This thread is for the purposes of that discussion (although some of it has already taken place in the other thread) and to cast your vote.

So the man in question is Lebron James. Which year do you think was his best, and why?

I'm going to go with '13, although I've been wavering quite a bit. Reasoning copied from last thread:
An utterly dominant offensive force (in both rs and playoffs) with a statistical profile that speaks for itself. ‘09 shapes out marginally better statistically (and I have been waffling), but I’m still impressed at his ability to put up such impressive numbers while playing alongside Wade (a near-superstar in his own right) and Bosh. You know, as opposed to Ilguaskas and Mo Williams.
And with his improved outside shot and post-game, I feel he’s less “containable” overall, too.

[RSCD3_]

Double


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[Quotatious]

I'm going with 2009, as well. Equal regular season (arguably slightly better, and quite honestly, it may be the best regular season anyone ever had in the NBA), and better playoff run, despite the fact that it didn't lead to a championship.

He helped a team overachieve more than any other player in NBA history, in 2009. Also, 2009 is clearly his best season in terms of on/off court net rating (in other words, his team was losing more value that year than any other), and it's also arguably his best defensive season.

I'm not sure if I would agree with RSCD that he could propel the Heat to the same heights or higher, because I feel like the 2013 version was a better fit alongside other stars, better off-ball, but on the other hand, I think that '13 LeBron wouldn't have led the '09 Cavs to 66 wins, and probably would've gotten swept or lost in 5 (at best) to Orlando in the ECF.

I disagree that he was more containable with his improved jumpshot and post game. Spurs contained him just fine in the '13 finals...Magic (best defense in the league in '09) couldn't contain LeBron even though his jumpshot wasn't that great during that series, and he was doing most of his damage inside, particularly in the later stages of that series.

[70sFan]

Right now I think 2012 is my pick, but I want to hear others opinion before voting

[yoyoboy]

2009. I don't care if his offensive game was more well-rounded in 2012 or 2013. His insane athleticism/stamina allowed him to be more dominant in 2009 despite not having as good of a post game or as reliable of a jumpshot as he did in Miami.

He carried below-average talent to a 66 win season and an 8.68 SRS (better than any LeBron Heat season, despite not having guys like Wade and Bosh alongside him), and was simply more statistically impressive (especially in the postseason) and more physically unstoppable on the court than he he was in any season during his Heat tenure. He just didn't have the talent around him required to beat that Magic team, which was already a terrible matchup, as the Cavs had no one to defend Dwight in the post.

Are you seriously telling me that you think 2013 LeBron would have been able to take that Cavs team past the Magic? What could LeBron have done beyond the 39/8/8 that his younger self put up in that series? And let's keep in mind that by most statistical measures (as well as my own eye test, having watched pretty much every Cavs game during the 08-09 season, and also having watched a good deal of the Heat games during the 11-12 and 12-13 seasons, including every playoff game), 08-09 was also LeBron's defensive peak. He was essentially carrying that Cavs team on both ends of the floor. There was no Wade and no Bosh to help carry the load or take over when LeBron needed a break, unless you think Mo Williams was suitable for that type of role (yet we all know he was a fake All Star who only managed to get in based on the fact that he looked better next to LeBron).

People are way too result-oriented when it comes to evaluating players. Look, I get it. Winning is the most important thing at the end of the day. But this isn't tennis or boxing. This is basketball, where there are 5 guys on the floor at a time for either team. And then you've also got a coach on the sidelines, along with the rest of the roster sitting on the bench. In the 2009 postseason, LeBron, on an individual level, performed pretty much as well or better than any player ever has, and better than he did in any year during his Miami stint. So why should we fault him based in his teammates coming up short?

[SideshowBob]

How long will this thread be open? I want to get into detail here beyond just 09's numbers, but won't be able to do so until later this evening. That said, I think some of the division of opinion has to do with difference of criteria rather than different assessments of Lebron's seasons.

FWIW I will be vouching for 2013 here. Of his "prime" years (post 08 Olympics) here's how I rank them

2013
2010

2009
2014
2012/2015

2011

[Dr Positivity]

I vote for 2013. 2009 may have been more valuable in the regular season but in the playoffs I favor having the polished skill and experience to take advantage of harder playoff matchups. Furthermore I favor PF Lebron where the floor spacing makes him an even more unbelievable offensive asset

[LoyalKing]

My vote goes to 2012 - That was the perfect balanced year. Well-rounded game, came up BIG when it mattered in really difficult situations, faced stronger teams in the playoffs ,destroyed OKC in the Finals and had no BUTs in that run.

2009 - Athletic freak, crazy numbers, BUT came up short against the only real competition he faced in the playoffs. Howard absolutely outplayed Lebron in the last 4 games of the series, won it and took a really poor supporting cast to the Finals.
Sorry, can't imagine Lebron peaking @ 24 y/o and I can't imagine a top 3 peak of all-time that a player couldn't even reach the Finals and lost against a Howard-lead team. Howard had a slightly better supporting cast, but it's not like Howard's Orlando was stacked o anything.

2013 - Here he falls short in the Finals. Absolutely the 2011 Lebron version during the first 6 games. Came up big during the 4th quarter of game 6 and game 7 and I'll give him that, but a lot of fellows were doubting him again during the series (even hardcore Lebron fans).

That didn't happen in 2012 and that's why it gets my vote. I saw Lebron's best version in 2012.

[The-Power]

There is arguably no player in history where the peak is more about individual preference and criteria than LeBron James. Lift vs. Portability, Individual Dominance vs. Team Success, Athleticism vs. Skill. In Lebron's case I'm torn apart and believe that there is no right answer but only preference.

In 2009 he arguably provided the most lift of any player in history. His team overachieved during the RS like crazy and there is no doubt that he was the only reason why. +21.2 on/off, 9.3 / 8.05 RAPM depending on the source, 40.8 Pp100P on 0.591 TS%, USG% of 33.8, 31.7 PER, 122/99 Individual ORTG/DRTG. His team won 66 games, 8.68 SRS and he didn't disappoint in the playoffs either. Best AST% to TOV% of his career by far, 37.4 PER and 0.399 WS/48 (for what it's worth, but those numbers are insane) and he increased the scoring volume to 47.5 Pp100P while being even more efficient (0.618 TS%, second highest TS% of his career only behind 2014). Pure dominance.

But 2013 was incredible in every aspect as well. He led the best offense of his career with an on-court ORTG of 116.5, +10.5 above league-average. He still scored 37.5 Pp100P but on outstanding efficiency, 0.64 TS%. He still grabbed more than 10 rebounds and dished out more than 10 assists per 100 while limiting his turnovers. 31.6 PER is basically the same as 2009 which indicates that his boxscore-production, as a glance at it already suggests, wasn't less impressive than in 2009. This is also shown by his 125/101 Individual ORTG/DRTG and an even (slightly) higher WS/48. Still elite in RAPM (7.1 or 7.98 depending on source; interestingly one source has both about equal while the other states a notable difference). His more accurate 3pt-shot (career high 40.6%, on 4.7 3PA per 100) helped him to play more off-ball, for many people the reason to believe that this version - albeit maybe not as dominant as 2009 but not far off regardless - was more able to lead a truly elite team with great teammates than the younger version. I won't focus on his more refined postgame because it wasn't great enough to use it as an off-ball weapon á la Shaq and 2009 LeBron couldn't be stopped offensively regardless, making the argument of more versatility and thus more reliability rather unappealing to me in this context. The playoffs were less impressive statistically, his USG% dropped from 36.4 (second highest (2015)) to 29.2 (second lowest (2011)). So, before comparing these two playoff-runs we have to make up our mind about how to rate the different approach to the game. Can we punish LeBron for playing a less dominant role when it leads to the title and is for the best of the team? On the other hand, should we not give him credit for the unbelievable dominance in 2009 when this was what the team-context dictated? It's really tough to rate because both questions should be answered with 'no'. I won't disregard, however, that LeBron's AST/TO ratio took a hit and his efficiency dropped significantly - compared to the RS as well as to the 2009 playoffs - when quite the opposite was to be expected.

Initially, I voted for 2013 LeBron because of his off-ball game and because I didn't want to punish him for taking a lesser role for the sake of the team. Skill-wise he was better and especially better suited to lead a team with other stars. But from a pure lifting standpoint it's tough to argue against what he did in 2009. To me he had a more impressive RS in 2013 everything considered but his respective playoff-runs might actually swing the comparison towards his 2009 campaign. While he was statistically relatively poor in 2013 compared to his RS, he went absolutely nuts in the 2009 PS even compared to his already great RS. Sample size might be an issue because he was significantly more efficient during the 2013 RS compared to the 2009 RS, without losing much volume, and the playoffs could be a fluke in this regard. But evaluating only what happened I can't simply neglect what he did in the 2009 and 2013 playoffs, respectively.

So, I'll suprise myself and vote for 2009 LeBron. I said it is close at the beginning, sided with 2013 by a hair after that and now changed my mind and take the younger version. Who knows what tomorrow brings? But for this project I'll vote 2009 and don't look back. It's basically the question: do I take the superior version or the better overall season? I decided to go with the latter but my answer would probably change when the question was 'who would you rather want on your (decent) team to win a title'?.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote - 2013 LeBron

I could just as easily go with 2012 here, but since they're both close, i'll go with 2013 being the full season and lebron facing a tougher opponent in the finals. While the spurs were a ray allen missed 3 away from winning the title that year, lebron showed up in game 7 and closed them out.

This is the version of lebron we saw really control a game without scoring, and it put it over the top for me compared to 09. I was so impressed with the attention he commanded in the post, not even being a dominant post player. His ability to find the open man and create from that area was unmatched. It was almost bizarre to watch. Add that to his being an elite, versatile defender, and it sealed it for me.

[JordansBulls]

2013 because that was the year he was clearly the best in the league with no debate for anyone else.

[urnoggin]

Vote: 2009 Lebron

This was arguably the GOAT regular season and playoffs as far as advanced metrics and on/off stats are concerned. Was at his peak athletically and as a defender while on offense he was an elite playmaker and finisher but lacked a post game and a consistent outside shot. Led a weaker team (compared to the 13' Heat) to a higher SRS which once again magnifies the astronomical impact he had in this season. Had a brilliant playoffs especially vs the Magic where he played out of his mind but his team faltered leading to a defeat in 6 games.

[SactoKingsFan]

Vote: 2013 LeBron

Sticking with 2013 as LeBron's peak season for same previously mentioned reasons.

I prefer 13 LeBron over his 09 physical peak since 13 was close enough to his physical peak and had a much more polished and versatile offensive game.  I think 13 LeBron with his elite two way impact (near peak offense + legit defensive anchor), extremely diverse skill-set, defensive versatility and RS+PS performance is as close to peak Jordan as it gets.

[RSCD3_]

6-5-2 in favor of 2013,2009 and 2012.


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[SideshowBob]

So kind of going to make cases for 13 and 10 here as I have those years almost even (IMO 2013 is more portable so that's my preference, 09 is a less polished version of 2010 so I wouldn't support it over those other two).

Criticism of 2012

Spoiler:

The answer is Jordan. Consistently great and just no words for how good he continued on in the playoffs (that's always my deciding factor between the two). However words about Lebron.

13 Lebron stands up. And I think it's probably the best regular season of all time (Especially that last 40 games where he had like 28-8-8 .663TS% 37 PER and the team went 37-3). and he still had an outstanding playoffs. Truth is Wade struggling as much as he did relative to the regular season really f'd up the spacing for him and he didn't adjust by firing the jumper enough until the end of the Finals so you can definitely doc Lebron there.

12 and 14 Lebron are flawed in different ways. Combine the defense and energy and health of 12 Lebron and the offensive repertoire of 14 Lebron and you have the best player of all time. 13 Lebron was elite but not totally peak in both areas but still was godly.

I hope his defense and health come back (hopefully this weight loss does it for him). You just watched 14 Lebron and even Lebron in the preseason so far. He's just so controlled, comfortable and confident in his skill game now. The tool box is mostly complete (he even busted out that hook shot that he could never make in 13 and 14), this season really could be an all-timer.

I think LeBron 12 was his best year. What kind of flaws are we talking about? His 3P% in the playoffs? Yes his shot was not falling at soem moments. In the finals he couldn't almost score outside the paint, but he still produced high volumes at great efficiency in every series.

Defensively this is about his best. Offensively, he's got a handful of years better, the biggest issue is that his ability to create off the dribble by attacking the rim is highly limited (though a step above the dreadful 2011). His scoring is highly opportunistic (lots of easy buckets, fast-break capitalization). This isn't a bad thing, it's just not as good as doing what he does in 09/10/13/14.

Jumper is inconsistent, his outside shooting is poor, especially during the playoffs. The regular season % looks nice because of a hot streak early in the season and then selective shooting later on. He's not as good as 09/10/11 IMO and nowhere near where he'd be in 13 and 14. His post game is average; he's still not entirely comfortable playing down low back to basket, and he actually lacks the mid-post face-up game that he had in say 2010 (where he could exploit a quick explosive step and get to the rim easily). More than anything he's just shooting turnarounds on the baseline (2012 Finals are the major PS exception, Durant/Harden/etc. are not exactly post-defenders). When he's hot this makes for an impressive display (Game 6 vs. Boston), but it's never going to be as reliable/consistent/threatening as finishing around the basket. He's starting to develop an off-ball scoring game but it's not nearly being used frequently enough or well enough to get the kinds of looks he gets these days. His ability to create off the dribble is hampered; little explosion and ball-control/agility to be able to drive to the rim or find a seam, and inconsistent jumper means devalues his midrange creation a bit (though it's his best season inside 10-15ft, he was creating a lot fadeaways off backdowns).

I encourage you to watch the 2012 playoffs again and focus on how the defenses were playing him. Then do the same with 13/14 (particularly Mil/Chicago/2013 SAS/2014 IND). Look at the wall that these teams were building in the paint and the aggressive attempts to pressure/shade any time James was even making a catch on the perimeter and then consider the kind of coverage/strategy that's being employed against him in 2012 (hint: it was unnecessary to devote the same kind of defensive attention to James in 2012 as he just wasn't the kind of threat that demanded it). Toss 13 James on the 2012 Heat and either he puts up even more impressive numbers, or the defenses adjust and Miami's offense goes into hyper-drive as it did in 7/8 series since the 2012 Finals (14 Finals is the exception). Throw 14 James in and the difference might be even greater, though he's not as good as 12/13 defensively so the overall effect would not be the same.

Thoughts on Miami Lebron - Case for 13 and 14

Spoiler:

Basketball ability wise, yes, 2014 LeBron was more diverse offensively but 12 LeBron still averaged 27 PPG on 61% TS. As an overall player I am taking 12 LeBron over 14 for an entire season. If we are talking about one game, I will probably go with 13 LeBron.

But this is completely misleading AND putting too much stock in the box-score. The way teams defended 12 Lebron and 14 Lebron was very different, 14 Lebron just demands SO MUCH more attention, and to boil it down to 27 on 61% TS vs. 27 on 65% TS makes the difference look a lot smaller than it actually is.

There is literally nothing on the offensive end that 2012 did better than 2014.

Among his 4 Miami seasons, here is how I would rank these abilities:

-Creating midrange jumpers off the dribble - 14/13, 11, 12
-Creating three point jumpers off the dribble - 14, 13, 11/12
-Getting to the basket off the dribble and collapsing the defense - 14, 13, Large Gap, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B basket creation - 14, Large Gap, 13, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B playmaking - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Low/Mid-post face-up/triple threat - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Creating midrange jumpers off the ball (off screens, off curls, via movement, etc.) - 14, 13, 12/11
-Hard/random cuts to the basket - 14, small gap, 13, 12, 11
-Spot-up 3 point shooting - 14/13, Large gap, 11, 12
-Finishing at the basket - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Transition finishing - 14/13, 12, 11
-Transition playmaking - roughly even
-PnR playmaking - 14/13, 12, 11
-PnR creation - 14/13, gap, 12, 11

Again, the kind of attention defenses put towards slowing down 2014 Lebron was just vastly different from 2012. Even if we're talking strictly box-score line, the kind of scoring numbers 2014 Lebron would have put up in the RS and PS if he had been defended the same way as 2012 was would have been mind-boggling (but of course, this would be idiotic on the part of defenses).

There's just a huge gulf in slashing ability between 11/12 and 13/14. His PnR mentality in 2011 and 2012 is all about patience, hope that defenders over commit and try to force rotations, take advantage of the attention that Wade (who when healthy was probably more disruptive as an offensive player in 2012 than Lebron was, but no longer had the stamina to sustain it) and Bosh draw, and swing it over to the shooters, almost never to get into the paint himself and force a collapse. In 2011, he's only getting into the paint when A.) there's a wide open lane, B.) in transition, and C.) starting to find seams off the ball for hard cuts (this starts happening later in the season), everything else is pull up in the midrange/from 3 occasionally (though this is phased out later in the season as he becomes more selective with his shots) and the occasional spot-up, otherwise very little off-ball activity. This is essentially his entire 2011 offensive game.

In 2012, we get more of the same, but he's added two additional tools to allow him to get to the basket. A.) He's begun fiddling in the post (but overall his post-game is highly overrated, he's got a half-decent right jump-hook, but largely he's reliant on baseline turnarounds over the right shoulder), and B.) he's shed a tiny bit of weight and has enough explosion to occasionally catch defenders off-guard in short triple-threat blowbys. Still not an elite slasher, and the larger problem is that outside of 10 feet, his jumpshot has actually regressed to pre-09 levels (his 3PT% is inflated this year due to selective shooting, he was a better outside shooter in 09/10/11/13/14/15). The improvements were enough that he's a slightly better offensive player than 2011, but he just DOES NOT have apply the kind of basket pressure that forces collapses and dynamic strategy implementation (drop the PnR, strongside paint overload, etc.) through his slashing that 13/14 do (as do 08/09/10/15).

No one defends him the way he was defended by Boston back in 08-10 and the way almost every sound team plays him now, because it was not necessary! There was no need to take the hazard of helping off the corners to try and wall of Lebron from getting to the basket at will because he was simply not going to be able to do it. Then, 13 Lebron comes around having shed more weight and regained much of his lost explosiveness and boom, he's getting to the basket at will and finishing damn near 80% when he gets there. The EV on a Lebron drive now skyrockets, as does the volume of these drives. With no help, this may be the deadliest consistent attack option from the wing that the league has ever seen, particularly considering the kind of shooting (Allen/Battier/Bosh/Miller/etc.) and movement (Wade/Allen) that Miami surrounded him with in 2013. He also makes major strides in his jumpshooting all-around, becoming an elite spot-up outside shooter, elite midrange shooter, and regaining his pullup 3 point shooting ability from pre-2012. The post-game is perhaps very slightly more refined, but the big change is that now he's able to utilize his quickness advantage to get to the basket as well.

And what was the result of all of this? Miami's offense and Lebron both look like the GOAT for like 50-60 games. The PS numbers are misleading, 2013 is absolutely a better postseason run than 2012. The decline in numbers from the RS is largely due to Wade's deteriorated health. His constant movement/cutting/curling action was absolutely CRUCIAL in driving the Miami offense, which dipped from like +10 in the 2nd half of the RS to +9ish in the postseason, but dropped quite dramatically in terms of ORTG. This seems like a small difference, but moving the needle from +9 to +10 is insanely hard to do, and a one-point shift at that level is like the equivalent of moving a 0 to a +3; simply put it takes a hell of an offensive player to pull that off, and Wade's decline can be blamed for that drop off. That's not to say I want to crucify Wade, health was clearly an issue, but this is what I would point to first for the seemingly "underwhelming" nature of that PS run.

Typically, when well coached defenses wall-off the paint, it is the corner shooters they will sag off of in order to reinforce the interior, and rely on sound rotations/recoveries to compensate. Lebron is typically able to make this strategy pay as he's so gifted at manipulating those rotations to the point where he's able to hit that corner guy in a manner that allows him to shoot it before a recovery. However, the SG in this situation that was providing spacing was not a 3pt shooter, it was Wade with his relentless middle/interior action. When he's playing healthy, this isn't a problem, in fact it adds a layer of dynamism to such an offense, beyond the conventional SG standing in the corner. BUT when he's NOT healthy, it screws the offense over to a greater degree; because his man can stay in the middle and not have to be concerned if/when he's left wide-open outside because he's not hitting that shot at a rate that justifies covering it as opposed to stopping Lebron ALL game long, so long as James/Wade shared the court.

San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Chicago ALL took advantage of this, and we saw the effect on Lebron's box-score line, it didn't look anything like the godly stats we were used to seeing from Jan-April. Yet there was really no major change in how Lebron was approaching the game (other than when he just started firing off from outside when defenders went under in games 4/7 against SAS). His pressure on those 3 defenses and his impact on Miami's offense was largely unchanged from that insane RS run, but the circumstances did not allow him to continue to pile up box-score numbers. HOWEVER, guess what team did not play him that way. Indiana, the best defensive team in the league in 2013. They relied on their strong perimeter personnel to simply play him straight-up, and hoped that Hibbert's strong rotations would deter his forays into the paint. Unsurprisingly, this didn't work. Lebron had his best box-score series of the 2013 run and the Indiana defense was essentially lit up.

At this point I've begun to stray off topic, so let me be clear as to what I am trying to illustrate. 2013 was a superior postseason run and performance by Lebron than 2012 was, and taking the box-score performance differences between the two as the opposite conclusion is plain and simple wrong. This is not a matter of preference, there are very real trackable things going on ON the court that justify this position. Simply put, the insane strategies that 3 of his 4 2013 opponents used to try and wall him off from the paint were only moderately successful (if at all) due to the declined performance of the surrounding cast, but were conducive to weaker looking stats. 2012 Lebron just lacked the abilities to even need such strategies being employed against him, and the fact that 2013 WAS needing such strategies is in itself a HUGE indicator of 2013's vast superiority.

Now, the reason this pertains to 2014 Lebron is because 2014 Lebron was ****ing even better than 2013 (talking about just offense here). He shed a bit more weight and became even more of a slashing threat (not as big of a jump as 12->13), but more importantly, his skill game was taken to a whole new level - the spot-up 3 point shooting was about the same but he got better at moving off the ball to get himself these shots. The pullup three-point shooting was even better than 13 (the 3P% decline from 13->14 is due to him taking more 3 pointers off the dribble, not a decline in shooting ability). But of course, the biggest improvement was the post-game. I've spoken verbatim on how I think his 12 post-up ability was overrated, and following the 13 Finals I think one of the first things I highlighted was the need for him to make the back-to-basket game something he was truly good at instead of just something he could say he had in his arsenal. And boy, did he do so; the improvement in footwork was just night-and-day - he's no Kobe or Hakeem, but there's a clear fluidity as opposed to the robotic-ness of years past, and that drop-step is just murderous. He improved his smarts down there as well; his ability to seal off his man and take advantage of fronting was deadly, getting good low-post positioning is underrated and he became one of the best at doing so. He also improved his playmaking sense from down there, as he got more comfortable/patient in drawing defenders and then making a quick pass-out for a perimeter swing (hockey assist) as opposed to trying to make a risky direct feed to the open man.

Quite simply put, these improvements meant that there was yet another gap in the pressure that 14 James applied to defenses vs. 13 Lebron, and we've already established the massive improvement that 13 was over the other Miami years. He's got the experience of the 13 finals to allow him to tackle teams that employ that kind of strategy, and notably, throughout the regular season, we saw a huge uptick in the amount of teams that were willing to cover him this way, and yet it barely mattered.

At this point, the offensive gap between 14 and 12 is vast, more than enough IMO to overcome the defensive advantage of 12. I've come to value his consistency on that end in 2012 quite a bit more than I did at the time, but I just can't brush aside the kind of heights that his 14 offense is touching. This is the only version of Lebron offensively that I'd consider on par with peak Jordan; other seasons come close (09/10/13), but they don't quite matchup with his insane 90-93 ability (though Lebron closes the gap through defense).

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Devil's advocate response:

I agree with most of this post but I can meet you guys in a middle ground. Why his results so outweighed what his actual basketball abilities were was because he started dabbling as a 4 and with the post game.

Teams reacted very poorly to both due to unfamiliarity and the fact that even 12 Bron with his diminished abilities is an insane mismatch at the 4. He improved faster than opponents could scout him in 13/14 but 12 Bron would have struggled against the schemes teams eventually developed to stop him at the 4 but got tons of easy opportunities because it was new wrinkle.

Some examples of what I mean.
-Teams disrespected Bron and switched a lot of Bron/ Battier pick and rolls precisely due to the reasons SSB is talking about. Bron is going to have an easier time beating Brandon Bass one on one than Paul Pierce.
-Well **** Bron outweighs the guy he is guarding by 40 pounds we should probably double team the post. Bron posts up to find open shooters more so than just shoot the baseline fadeaway. (Finals was an exaggerated example of this since Harden and Durant really couldn't handle Bron down there but most of his post ups were more to facilitate than to score).
-Wait a minute Bron is setting a screen???? How do I defend this???? PANIC!!. Then you just see him slip and get an easy layup.

Good coaching by Spo, compressed schedules due to the lockout, no practice means that teams never had a chance to really practice a scheme to stop this at all. And it was a dabble in the regular season but enough to get him a bit more efficiency/ box score stats. Then when they went all in due to Bosh's injury and Bron at the 4 ended up merking Indiana, Boston and OKC but teams hadn't caught up yet in terms of how to handle it.

That's my main theory on why results so outweighed his abilities that year. You can say Lebron took advantage of how defenses were guarding him/ unable to guard him at the 4 and that's why it was such an effective season and I wouldn't disagree with you. I'd also say that he was no where close to the ability he had in 09-10, 13-15.

Case for 2010

Spoiler:

Introduction

I've always wanted to take a deeper look into these two seasons. Comparison is inevitable (coincidentally both are 25 and are just coming off their top box-score production seasons), but I want to just get some discussion going.

We have Jordan's famous "Archangel" stretch in 89 following the March 8th loss to Boston (in which he did not play). And we have Lebron's similar stretch in 2010 following Mo Williams' injury in late January. Both guys basically took on super ball dominant roles (not necessarily just high USG%), and we saw monster assist numbers from both (in Jordan's case, big rebound numbers as well). How was the team performance affected? I've posted extensive data at the end of the post.

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Discussion

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James

With James, we see similar shifts in production. Drop in scoring rate and efficiency (he was actually matching Jordan's pre-Archangel scoring rate before this shift, on 35% 3P shooting to boot), complemented by a jump in AST% and a drop in TOV%.

Cleveland's offense sees a MAJOR jump, shifting from +3.8 (elite) in the first 44 games with Lebron to a staggering +7.0 in the last 32 games with him. However, we also see a clear dropoff in defense, (-3.1 -> -1.6), though that can be somewhat attributed to the introduction of Jamison, and the inconsistent perimeter roster outside of Parker. Which brings to light the inconsistent roster overall; in these 32 games, this is the kind of minute breakdown we're looking at:

Lebron, 32 G, 1263 MP
Parker, 32 G, 899 MP
Varejao, 28 G, 751 MP
Hickson, 31 G, 710 MP
Williams, 22 G, 694 MP
Jamison, 20 G, 673 MP
West, 20 G, 538 MP
Gibson, 17 G, 430 MP
Shaq, 15 G, 377 MP
Moon, 24 G, 339 MP
Ilgauskas, 17 G, 335 MP

Getting back to the offense, what drives the shift is a clear jump in eFG% and a clear drop in TOV%. TOV% is largely going to be a result of increasing Lebron's ball dominance, which cuts the possession time of weaker ball-handlers/controllers, and allows others to be put into easier positions to score, while having to do less of the creation themselves (creation of high percentage shots at and closer to the basket, the same effect we saw with Jordan).

The eFG% jump would suggest that we may have also seen improved 3P shooting, but again, remember the inconsistent roster. 3PA goes from representing roughly 20% of all possessions to 23%, (18 3PA/G ->21 3PA/G), however, eFG% on 3s declines from 61.1% in the pre-PG stretch, to 53.7% in the PG stretch, despite overall eFG% rising from 53.1% to 54.3%. What that suggests is that Lebron's volume creation on 3s AND inside shots rose, but the Cavaliers were not capitalizing as well as they could have, due to circumstances that weren't necessarily in control. That makes the improvement/emphasis on inside scoring even more impressive and dramatic, and I'll have to dig a bit deeper to look for shifts in that regard. What I can point out, is that James' free throw rate jumped from an impressive .478 to a staggering .547, and yet on the team level there is virtually no shift in free throw rate. To me, that (and the drop in TOV%) may be an indication of lots of open shots created at the basket, with such little defensive pressure that free throw rate was actually declining.

Varejao/Hickson come to mind here, they were both highly effective finishers on the PnR with James. In this stretch, we see Varejao shoot 65.7% from the floor (9.1 pts/g, 67.0% TS, up from 8.4 pts/g, 55.6% TS ), and we see Hickson shoot 56.6% from the floor (10.7 pts/g, 59.0% TS, up from 6.6 pts/g, 56.9% TS).

I also want to discuss the introduction of Jamison here, who may or may not have been all that helpful in the offense, despite being a stretch 4. In 11 Lebron PG games without him the offense was at +8.7, (Shaq played all 11 G), but in 21 Lebron PG games with him, the offense dropped to +6 (with Shaq playing in only 4 G). The presence of Shaq as a post/finishing threat may have been more helpful than the spacing effect that Jamison yielded, and the defensive woes of playing them together are also clear.

So what we're considering, is that give James an effective PnR finisher, and provide any sort of spacing and you're likely to get a strong offense. Have two of them, and provide a bunch of inconsistent above average outside shooters, and a half present low-post presence and you can probably yield an elite offense. Add in a second creator and consistent elite outside shooting (2013 Miami), and what could you get?

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Data

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2010 Cleveland Cavaliers

Full Season

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.6     112.1    105.0    6.52   -0.35    6.17   +4.6    -2.2    +6.8

Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.2     111.4    104.3    6.43   -0.20    6.64   +3.8    -3.1    +6.9

Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.7     114.8    105.1    8.84   -1.04    7.24   +7.0    -1.6    +8.6

Four Factors

Full Season

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.2%      25.1%       12.7%      .246
Defense       48.2%      77.2%       11.7%      .218

Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.1%      25.3%       13.5%      .247
Defense       47.5%      77.7%       12.0%      .241

Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       54.3%      25.3%       11.7%      .248
Defense       48.2%      76.5%       11.1%      .193

Lebron James

Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.0  29.7  7.3   8.6   41.8%   3.4   12.3%   60.4% +6.1%   33.5%  121
N/A   30.3  7.4   8.7   N/A     3.5   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.7  29.7  7.1   7.8   40.4%   3.6   12.9%   61.1% +6.8%   34.2%  121
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.5  29.7  7.5   9.6   43.8%   3.2   11.4%   59.6% +5.4%   33.4%  122
N/A   29.9  7.5   9.7   N/A     3.2   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

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So here's my thought process when considering "best". I care about who/what the best player/peak IS. I don't care about who performed the best given the circumstances (be it by box-score, +/-, "eye-test" or whatever else), whose team performed the best given the circumstances, who had the most impressive looking season, etc. What I care about is that when it comes down to it, which of these players gives me the best shot at a title on ANY team, and to do that, I have to dig deeper than simply looking at what stands out the most.

The ~90-100 games in a season are a showcase for the players to display what their capabilities are; they're pitted against a variety of opposing strategies/schemes (offense AND defense), ~400 different personnel and there's just a VAST amount shown off that goes beyond the box-score, there's so much to take in. So why focus on the glorious 35/9/7 62%TS in a 14 game sample against only 3 teams? Why should everything else observable be secondary? What if Lebron had faced the Thibs/Garnett Celtics that year? Why focus on 66 wins/8.7 SRS when we know that they feasted on weaker opponents at home (39-1 w/Lebron) and held a 3-5 combined record vs. LA/BOS/ORL and 3.7 SRS (with Garnett missing a game in there) and then 2-4 vs Orlando in the postseason. I"m not trying to simply put him or the Cavs down here, but I am trying to add in a little more context. I DO want to entertain hypotheticals though, not nonsensical ones mind you, but at least those that might force me to apply a more cerebral view on these players.

Oftentimes, when I try to do the above, I get the response "But I'm not concerned with what could have happened, I'm concerned with what did happen!". That's all fine and well, but then we're not answering the plain and simple question "Who was the best", instead we're answering "Who was the best...given their teammate/roster construction, team coaching/strategy, opposing coaching/strategy, matchups faced, league-wide injuries, etc." and that's not quite the same.

So let's dive in for a second. Let's take a look at 09 vs. 10. The key arguments I see are better record (though the 2010 Cavs were 60-16 with Lebron IN and 1-5 with him out), better RS stats due to fewer minutes in 09 and better PER, and far better postseason stats. On the other hand RAPM seems to like 2010 better (+9.6 vs. +8.1 on the GotBuckets.com set). Yet, so often when I see a summary or comparison and RAPM is brought up, there's rarely ever any effort to discern why this difference exists, its simply pointed to as another stat, and then a counter-argument (vs 2010) is levied via box-score. So let's instead answer that why right now.

Defensively the two years are similar (I personally rate them the same, both slightly lower than his best Miami years). 09 has an arguably slightly better motor and rebounding, 2010 has better instincts and smarter reads/reactions/rotations (less blocks because he's in better position to deter, less steals because he's gambling a bit less and is forcing weaker plays via the threat of his presence in the passing lanes). Transition is about the same, maybe slightly better awareness and hands in 2010.

There are clear improvements in his offensive game (which is where most of the RAPM difference shows up). 2010 Lebron is better equipped than 2009 Lebron to bolster teams on offense AND face tougher defenses. He's developed his ball-control/handling a bit, particularly in being able to set himself up for jumpshots in the mid-range (though also from deep) by creating separation AND he's improved his shooting mechanics. As a result he's a better pullup shooter from midrange AND outside (which greatly expands his on-ball game and makes him a greater live-ball threat and by definition more deadly initiating offense), his 3-point shot as a whole is improved due to the mechanics (% is misleading, his volume is way up, and he's being assisted on far less than 09 because of his ability to now just pullup for tough 3 pointers which is bonkers for spacing even if they're hit at like a 30% clip) and this makes him far more dynamic in the halfcourt creating for himself. He's also added upper body mass without sacrificing explosion/first-step quickness, which makes him a deadlier finisher on the drive going in either direction, better finisher in the lane (one of his top years from 3-10 feet), but also makes him a tougher guard in the low-post, where he's dabbling a little bit (though focusing on playmaking than scoring - he's beginning to learn that he'll always draw help or draw a foul and taking advantage of it on occasion). This combined with the improved shooting makes it so that he can better balance his attack when he's looking to create, and serves to enhance his slashing game (09 and 10 are the peak of his slashing game - in 09 defenses hadn't quite adjusted to his improvements/progression yet so the slashing yielded better stats, in 10 defenses had begun to adjust, so instead the slashing yielded greater team lift and as a result notably more assists- similar to how JLei describes 12 vs. 13/14 above). Also now dabbling in the mid-post, not much back-to-basket play but he can use his quickness out of a face-up to blow by defenders quickly for high % shots, and he loves reversing the ball over the top to hit the corners. So we've got all of those improvements, another year of experience, and IMO he's got better game management skills - better at controlling pace/tempo, better at reading his teammates and getting/finding them in good position, better at recognizing when/when not to be aggressive, etc.

Recognize all of this (and consider my post from above as well) and I think it starts to become clear why the impact stats tend to prefer this yea. On the defensive end, this version of Lebron is more or less the same as the year before, and on offense, he's pretty much better at everything, and it's being captured. He's less likely to be slowed down by a defense, and imparts a greater non-box-score impact on his team due to the refinements in his game. I don't care that 2009 Lebron was able to look far more successful in the playoffs given what he had - I'm confident that if we throw 09 and 10 Lebron into 10, 100, 1000 different situations, on average 2010 will give you the better results, and that's what matters to me, not simply "what happened" because IMO that's too constrained of a sample/perspective.

Real quick, early Miami seasons before diving into 2013. 2012 IMO is and will be Lebron's most overrated season (again, mostly because of honing in on playoff results and box-score). Best defense of his career (2013 had stretches that were better but the motor and consistency in 2012 were superior), but his offensive game is highly limited. He gained major upper body weight in 2011 which drastically hampered his quickness/explosion/coordination/fluidity and basically lost his bread-and-butter slashing game. What made him so unique, deadly, and impactful in the first place (and what made 09 and 10 such Titanic seasons) was gone and we were left with a Lebron that was a shell of himself, arguably the 2nd best player on his own team and nowhere near the GOAT level player we had just seen in the two years prior. Fortunately this forced him to work on his skillset quite a bit, and in the 11 offseason he also shed some weight. It wasn't quite enough though, while he did regain a small amount of his fluidity back in 2012, he still wasn't anywhere near 09/10 or what he would be in 13-15 either. His jumper also unfortunately regressed from 2011 (might've been a hand injury early in the season), but beginning to dabble in the post, improved on-ball creation skills and slightly improved physicality helped him ramp up his offense a bit. Couple that with the improved defense and this is still a hell of a year, but really this is no better than the 5th best version of Lebron IMO (09/10/13/14 maybe 15), his offense was simply underwhelming - highly opportunistic scoring, relatively weak ability to create (hope for over-commit on PnR, little to no slashing, just not a lot of impact beyond the basic box-score). In the playoffs he had long stretches of just not imprinting any impact on the game - when the jumpshot was off and the middle even slightly loaded up there were times when he displayed no option other than just stand in a corner and well, do nothing. No threat of movement, no establishing position, just a whole load of nothing - non-impact play, something that I just don't see from 09/10/13/14/15 because of the greater diversity of options and this simply does not cut it. Game 6 is awesome, all the credit in the world to him for pulling that one off, but one game does not make a player/season - I just don't have the confidence in this Lebron's skills/ability to lead me to a title in the way that I do the others I keep championing. With regards to the actual run itself, I think the competition is a bit overrated - level of offensive play increased as the lockout season progressed, thus the defensive ratings the Heat faced oversell how good the defenses actually work (though this could then inversely be a credit to their defensive performance, though outside of OKC they mostly faced weak offensive squads).

Now, moving onto 2013, he sheds some considerable weight (to the point where he's now resembling the old Lebron and where his slashing game is starting to get back to best in the league level again) AND makes some major improvements to his skills (notably getting more comfortable in the post, playing more frequently/smarter off the ball AND acquiring an elite jumpshot from all areas on the floor). Now things get a little interesting, because this is how I personally rate the three seasons we're discussing at this point.

09 +7.50 (+5.50 Off/+2.00 Def)
10 +8.00 (+6.00 Off/+2.00 Def)
13 +8.00 (+5.75 Off/+2.25 Def)

The reason I favor 2013 most of all is portability, and a large part of that is defense, as defense is inherently additive vs. offense (don't have to worry about one player controlling the ball on that end - hell off-ball/help defense tend to be more important that single coverage anyway!). Best season on the glass of his career, probably better rotations (fewer errors/misses) than 2012, better lateral movement as well due to the shed weight and there's an explosive activeness to his defense at times in the postseason, but there's a drop in consistency and he has issues sustaining it (lazy 1st half of RS, gets gassed in the late season) so I've penalized him a little bit relative to 2012.

Offensively the changes I mentioned above lead to some pretty drastic improvements (+4.5 O in 2012 -->+5.75 O 2013), he's got his slashing game back, though not quite at 09/10 levels, still leagues ahead of 11/12. He's now a highly effective floor spacer, whether up top or in the corner, and he's constantly moving off the ball to put himself into positions that can pressure the defense. 2010 probably applies more disruption to defenses, but 2013 applies more dynamic pressure, and this is very valuable in terms of roster/lineup diversity - 2013 gives you far more wiggle room for success, he can fill a lot more gaps across the board (and all of this goes relative to 09 as well), without yielding his BnB; he's like diet Larry Bird with better athleticism -> slashing. I see this season as pretty close to 2010 ITO offense, and I can be swayed either way. I DO prefer this season for offensive portability though, the improved off-ball/post game combined with the insane level of outside shooting (amongst the top spot-up 3 point shooters in the league - so valuable in today's era) and its hard to argue with this being a more meshable skillset than 2010 even if I think 2010 has slightly more potential for impact (though at higher and higher team levels 13 becomes more and more preferable).

Lastly, 2014. I've rambled on way longer than I should have so I'll keep it as simple as possible. This is his clear offensive peak. Takes everything he does in 2013 and does it better in 2014, MUCH better post-game (to the point where in 14 and 15 IMO he's the league's best low-post player), MUCH better game off the ball (guess who scored a greater % of their buckets off the ball, Durant or James?), better shooting (mid-range regresses a bit in the RS but by the playoffs his jumpshot's on fire from virtually everywhere, 3 point shooting is a little bit better as he incorporates the 2010 pullup from outside again). But above all else, after shedding some more weight, he's brought his athleticism back to the closest its ever been to the late Cleveland years and pretty much brings his slashing game nearly on par with those years. Put it all together and we're looking at a near GOAT level offensive player. Unfortunately he regresses quite a bit defensively, there's just no consistency to his effort in the RS, and at times even his smarts seem absent (this is mostly laziness/poor stamina, given that in 2015 he looked VERY good). There's improvement in the 2nd half of the season, slightly better effort and activity, and in the postseason there are times where he looks like his old self, but its evident that he has a hard time sustaining it and while he's still a positive, he's a long way down from the crazy stuff we were seeing in years prior. Still, the offense makes up for it, and this is actually the postseason that I'm most impressed with from him out of all years.

SUMMARY: 2013 is my pick. Not his best offense/defense/stamina/athleticism, but at the end of the day its the best combination of everything and a year in which he displayed portable/scale-able two-way play.

[70sFan]

So kind of going to make cases for 13 and 10 here as I have those years almost even (IMO 2013 is more portable so that's my preference, 09 is a less polished version of 2010 so I wouldn't support it over those other two).

Criticism of 2012

Spoiler:

I think LeBron 12 was his best year. What kind of flaws are we talking about? His 3P% in the playoffs? Yes his shot was not falling at soem moments. In the finals he couldn't almost score outside the paint, but he still produced high volumes at great efficiency in every series.

Defensively this is about his best. Offensively, he's got a handful of years better, the biggest issue is that his ability to create off the dribble by attacking the rim is highly limited (though a step above the dreadful 2011). His scoring is highly opportunistic (lots of easy buckets, fast-break capitalization). This isn't a bad thing, it's just not as good as doing what he does in 09/10/13/14.

Jumper is inconsistent, his outside shooting is poor, especially during the playoffs. The regular season % looks nice because of a hot streak early in the season and then selective shooting later on. He's not as good as 09/10/11 IMO and nowhere near where he'd be in 13 and 14. His post game is average; he's still not entirely comfortable playing down low back to basket, and he actually lacks the mid-post face-up game that he had in say 2010 (where he could exploit a quick explosive step and get to the rim easily). More than anything he's just shooting turnarounds on the baseline (2012 Finals are the major PS exception, Durant/Harden/etc. are not exactly post-defenders). When he's hot this makes for an impressive display (Game 6 vs. Boston), but it's never going to be as reliable/consistent/threatening as finishing around the basket. He's starting to develop an off-ball scoring game but it's not nearly being used frequently enough or well enough to get the kinds of looks he gets these days. His ability to create off the dribble is hampered; little explosion and ball-control/agility to be able to drive to the rim or find a seam, and inconsistent jumper means devalues his midrange creation a bit (though it's his best season inside 10-15ft, he was creating a lot fadeaways off backdowns).

I encourage you to watch the 2012 playoffs again and focus on how the defenses were playing him. Then do the same with 13/14 (particularly Mil/Chicago/2013 SAS/2014 IND). Look at the wall that these teams were building in the paint and the aggressive attempts to pressure/shade any time James was even making a catch on the perimeter and then consider the kind of coverage/strategy that's being employed against him in 2012 (hint: it was unnecessary to devote the same kind of defensive attention to James in 2012 as he just wasn't the kind of threat that demanded it). Toss 13 James on the 2012 Heat and either he puts up even more impressive numbers, or the defenses adjust and Miami's offense goes into hyper-drive as it did in 7/8 series since the 2012 Finals (14 Finals is the exception). Throw 14 James in and the difference might be even greater, though he's not as good as 12/13 defensively so the overall effect would not be the same.

Thoughts on Miami Lebron - Case for 13 and 14

Spoiler:

Basketball ability wise, yes, 2014 LeBron was more diverse offensively but 12 LeBron still averaged 27 PPG on 61% TS. As an overall player I am taking 12 LeBron over 14 for an entire season. If we are talking about one game, I will probably go with 13 LeBron.

But this is completely misleading AND putting too much stock in the box-score. The way teams defended 12 Lebron and 14 Lebron was very different, 14 Lebron just demands SO MUCH more attention, and to boil it down to 27 on 61% TS vs. 27 on 65% TS makes the difference look a lot smaller than it actually is.

There is literally nothing on the offensive end that 2012 did better than 2014.

Among his 4 Miami seasons, here is how I would rank these abilities:

-Creating midrange jumpers off the dribble - 14/13, 11, 12
-Creating three point jumpers off the dribble - 14, 13, 11/12
-Getting to the basket off the dribble and collapsing the defense - 14, 13, Large Gap, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B basket creation - 14, Large Gap, 13, 12, 11
-Low-post B2B playmaking - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Low/Mid-post face-up/triple threat - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Creating midrange jumpers off the ball (off screens, off curls, via movement, etc.) - 14, 13, 12/11
-Hard/random cuts to the basket - 14, small gap, 13, 12, 11
-Spot-up 3 point shooting - 14/13, Large gap, 11, 12
-Finishing at the basket - 14, 13, 12, 11
-Transition finishing - 14/13, 12, 11
-Transition playmaking - roughly even
-PnR playmaking - 14/13, 12, 11
-PnR creation - 14/13, gap, 12, 11

Again, the kind of attention defenses put towards slowing down 2014 Lebron was just vastly different from 2012. Even if we're talking strictly box-score line, the kind of scoring numbers 2014 Lebron would have put up in the RS and PS if he had been defended the same way as 2012 was would have been mind-boggling (but of course, this would be idiotic on the part of defenses).

There's just a huge gulf in slashing ability between 11/12 and 13/14. His PnR mentality in 2011 and 2012 is all about patience, hope that defenders over commit and try to force rotations, take advantage of the attention that Wade (who when healthy was probably more disruptive as an offensive player in 2012 than Lebron was, but no longer had the stamina to sustain it) and Bosh draw, and swing it over to the shooters, almost never to get into the paint himself and force a collapse. In 2011, he's only getting into the paint when A.) there's a wide open lane, B.) in transition, and C.) starting to find seams off the ball for hard cuts (this starts happening later in the season), everything else is pull up in the midrange/from 3 occasionally (though this is phased out later in the season as he becomes more selective with his shots) and the occasional spot-up, otherwise very little off-ball activity. This is essentially his entire 2011 offensive game.

In 2012, we get more of the same, but he's added two additional tools to allow him to get to the basket. A.) He's begun fiddling in the post (but overall his post-game is highly overrated, he's got a half-decent right jump-hook, but largely he's reliant on baseline turnarounds over the right shoulder), and B.) he's shed a tiny bit of weight and has enough explosion to occasionally catch defenders off-guard in short triple-threat blowbys. Still not an elite slasher, and the larger problem is that outside of 10 feet, his jumpshot has actually regressed to pre-09 levels (his 3PT% is inflated this year due to selective shooting, he was a better outside shooter in 09/10/11/13/14/15). The improvements were enough that he's a slightly better offensive player than 2011, but he just DOES NOT have apply the kind of basket pressure that forces collapses and dynamic strategy implementation (drop the PnR, strongside paint overload, etc.) through his slashing that 13/14 do (as do 08/09/10/15).

No one defends him the way he was defended by Boston back in 08-10 and the way almost every sound team plays him now, because it was not necessary! There was no need to take the hazard of helping off the corners to try and wall of Lebron from getting to the basket at will because he was simply not going to be able to do it. Then, 13 Lebron comes around having shed more weight and regained much of his lost explosiveness and boom, he's getting to the basket at will and finishing damn near 80% when he gets there. The EV on a Lebron drive now skyrockets, as does the volume of these drives. With no help, this may be the deadliest consistent attack option from the wing that the league has ever seen, particularly considering the kind of shooting (Allen/Battier/Bosh/Miller/etc.) and movement (Wade/Allen) that Miami surrounded him with in 2013. He also makes major strides in his jumpshooting all-around, becoming an elite spot-up outside shooter, elite midrange shooter, and regaining his pullup 3 point shooting ability from pre-2012. The post-game is perhaps very slightly more refined, but the big change is that now he's able to utilize his quickness advantage to get to the basket as well.

And what was the result of all of this? Miami's offense and Lebron both look like the GOAT for like 50-60 games. The PS numbers are misleading, 2013 is absolutely a better postseason run than 2012. The decline in numbers from the RS is largely due to Wade's deteriorated health. His constant movement/cutting/curling action was absolutely CRUCIAL in driving the Miami offense, which dipped from like +10 in the 2nd half of the RS to +9ish in the postseason, but dropped quite dramatically in terms of ORTG. This seems like a small difference, but moving the needle from +9 to +10 is insanely hard to do, and a one-point shift at that level is like the equivalent of moving a 0 to a +3; simply put it takes a hell of an offensive player to pull that off, and Wade's decline can be blamed for that drop off. That's not to say I want to crucify Wade, health was clearly an issue, but this is what I would point to first for the seemingly "underwhelming" nature of that PS run.

Typically, when well coached defenses wall-off the paint, it is the corner shooters they will sag off of in order to reinforce the interior, and rely on sound rotations/recoveries to compensate. Lebron is typically able to make this strategy pay as he's so gifted at manipulating those rotations to the point where he's able to hit that corner guy in a manner that allows him to shoot it before a recovery. However, the SG in this situation that was providing spacing was not a 3pt shooter, it was Wade with his relentless middle/interior action. When he's playing healthy, this isn't a problem, in fact it adds a layer of dynamism to such an offense, beyond the conventional SG standing in the corner. BUT when he's NOT healthy, it screws the offense over to a greater degree; because his man can stay in the middle and not have to be concerned if/when he's left wide-open outside because he's not hitting that shot at a rate that justifies covering it as opposed to stopping Lebron ALL game long, so long as James/Wade shared the court.

San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Chicago ALL took advantage of this, and we saw the effect on Lebron's box-score line, it didn't look anything like the godly stats we were used to seeing from Jan-April. Yet there was really no major change in how Lebron was approaching the game (other than when he just started firing off from outside when defenders went under in games 4/7 against SAS). His pressure on those 3 defenses and his impact on Miami's offense was largely unchanged from that insane RS run, but the circumstances did not allow him to continue to pile up box-score numbers. HOWEVER, guess what team did not play him that way. Indiana, the best defensive team in the league in 2013. They relied on their strong perimeter personnel to simply play him straight-up, and hoped that Hibbert's strong rotations would deter his forays into the paint. Unsurprisingly, this didn't work. Lebron had his best box-score series of the 2013 run and the Indiana defense was essentially lit up.

At this point I've begun to stray off topic, so let me be clear as to what I am trying to illustrate. 2013 was a superior postseason run and performance by Lebron than 2012 was, and taking the box-score performance differences between the two as the opposite conclusion is plain and simple wrong. This is not a matter of preference, there are very real trackable things going on ON the court that justify this position. Simply put, the insane strategies that 3 of his 4 2013 opponents used to try and wall him off from the paint were only moderately successful (if at all) due to the declined performance of the surrounding cast, but were conducive to weaker looking stats. 2012 Lebron just lacked the abilities to even need such strategies being employed against him, and the fact that 2013 WAS needing such strategies is in itself a HUGE indicator of 2013's vast superiority.

Now, the reason this pertains to 2014 Lebron is because 2014 Lebron was ****ing even better than 2013 (talking about just offense here). He shed a bit more weight and became even more of a slashing threat (not as big of a jump as 12->13), but more importantly, his skill game was taken to a whole new level - the spot-up 3 point shooting was about the same but he got better at moving off the ball to get himself these shots. The pullup three-point shooting was even better than 13 (the 3P% decline from 13->14 is due to him taking more 3 pointers off the dribble, not a decline in shooting ability). But of course, the biggest improvement was the post-game. I've spoken verbatim on how I think his 12 post-up ability was overrated, and following the 13 Finals I think one of the first things I highlighted was the need for him to make the back-to-basket game something he was truly good at instead of just something he could say he had in his arsenal. And boy, did he do so; the improvement in footwork was just night-and-day - he's no Kobe or Hakeem, but there's a clear fluidity as opposed to the robotic-ness of years past, and that drop-step is just murderous. He improved his smarts down there as well; his ability to seal off his man and take advantage of fronting was deadly, getting good low-post positioning is underrated and he became one of the best at doing so. He also improved his playmaking sense from down there, as he got more comfortable/patient in drawing defenders and then making a quick pass-out for a perimeter swing (hockey assist) as opposed to trying to make a risky direct feed to the open man.

Quite simply put, these improvements meant that there was yet another gap in the pressure that 14 James applied to defenses vs. 13 Lebron, and we've already established the massive improvement that 13 was over the other Miami years. He's got the experience of the 13 finals to allow him to tackle teams that employ that kind of strategy, and notably, throughout the regular season, we saw a huge uptick in the amount of teams that were willing to cover him this way, and yet it barely mattered.

At this point, the offensive gap between 14 and 12 is vast, more than enough IMO to overcome the defensive advantage of 12. I've come to value his consistency on that end in 2012 quite a bit more than I did at the time, but I just can't brush aside the kind of heights that his 14 offense is touching. This is the only version of Lebron offensively that I'd consider on par with peak Jordan; other seasons come close (09/10/13), but they don't quite matchup with his insane 90-93 ability (though Lebron closes the gap through defense).

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Devil's advocate response:

I agree with most of this post but I can meet you guys in a middle ground. Why his results so outweighed what his actual basketball abilities were was because he started dabbling as a 4 and with the post game.

Teams reacted very poorly to both due to unfamiliarity and the fact that even 12 Bron with his diminished abilities is an insane mismatch at the 4. He improved faster than opponents could scout him in 13/14 but 12 Bron would have struggled against the schemes teams eventually developed to stop him at the 4 but got tons of easy opportunities because it was new wrinkle.

Some examples of what I mean.
-Teams disrespected Bron and switched a lot of Bron/ Battier pick and rolls precisely due to the reasons SSB is talking about. Bron is going to have an easier time beating Brandon Bass one on one than Paul Pierce.
-Well **** Bron outweighs the guy he is guarding by 40 pounds we should probably double team the post. Bron posts up to find open shooters more so than just shoot the baseline fadeaway. (Finals was an exaggerated example of this since Harden and Durant really couldn't handle Bron down there but most of his post ups were more to facilitate than to score).
-Wait a minute Bron is setting a screen???? How do I defend this???? PANIC!!. Then you just see him slip and get an easy layup.

Good coaching by Spo, compressed schedules due to the lockout, no practice means that teams never had a chance to really practice a scheme to stop this at all. And it was a dabble in the regular season but enough to get him a bit more efficiency/ box score stats. Then when they went all in due to Bosh's injury and Bron at the 4 ended up merking Indiana, Boston and OKC but teams hadn't caught up yet in terms of how to handle it.

That's my main theory on why results so outweighed his abilities that year. You can say Lebron took advantage of how defenses were guarding him/ unable to guard him at the 4 and that's why it was such an effective season and I wouldn't disagree with you. I'd also say that he was no where close to the ability he had in 09-10, 13-15.

Case for 2010

Spoiler:

Introduction

I've always wanted to take a deeper look into these two seasons. Comparison is inevitable (coincidentally both are 25 and are just coming off their top box-score production seasons), but I want to just get some discussion going.

We have Jordan's famous "Archangel" stretch in 89 following the March 8th loss to Boston (in which he did not play). And we have Lebron's similar stretch in 2010 following Mo Williams' injury in late January. Both guys basically took on super ball dominant roles (not necessarily just high USG%), and we saw monster assist numbers from both (in Jordan's case, big rebound numbers as well). How was the team performance affected? I've posted extensive data at the end of the post.

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Discussion

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James

With James, we see similar shifts in production. Drop in scoring rate and efficiency (he was actually matching Jordan's pre-Archangel scoring rate before this shift, on 35% 3P shooting to boot), complemented by a jump in AST% and a drop in TOV%.

Cleveland's offense sees a MAJOR jump, shifting from +3.8 (elite) in the first 44 games with Lebron to a staggering +7.0 in the last 32 games with him. However, we also see a clear dropoff in defense, (-3.1 -> -1.6), though that can be somewhat attributed to the introduction of Jamison, and the inconsistent perimeter roster outside of Parker. Which brings to light the inconsistent roster overall; in these 32 games, this is the kind of minute breakdown we're looking at:

Lebron, 32 G, 1263 MP
Parker, 32 G, 899 MP
Varejao, 28 G, 751 MP
Hickson, 31 G, 710 MP
Williams, 22 G, 694 MP
Jamison, 20 G, 673 MP
West, 20 G, 538 MP
Gibson, 17 G, 430 MP
Shaq, 15 G, 377 MP
Moon, 24 G, 339 MP
Ilgauskas, 17 G, 335 MP

Getting back to the offense, what drives the shift is a clear jump in eFG% and a clear drop in TOV%. TOV% is largely going to be a result of increasing Lebron's ball dominance, which cuts the possession time of weaker ball-handlers/controllers, and allows others to be put into easier positions to score, while having to do less of the creation themselves (creation of high percentage shots at and closer to the basket, the same effect we saw with Jordan).

The eFG% jump would suggest that we may have also seen improved 3P shooting, but again, remember the inconsistent roster. 3PA goes from representing roughly 20% of all possessions to 23%, (18 3PA/G ->21 3PA/G), however, eFG% on 3s declines from 61.1% in the pre-PG stretch, to 53.7% in the PG stretch, despite overall eFG% rising from 53.1% to 54.3%. What that suggests is that Lebron's volume creation on 3s AND inside shots rose, but the Cavaliers were not capitalizing as well as they could have, due to circumstances that weren't necessarily in control. That makes the improvement/emphasis on inside scoring even more impressive and dramatic, and I'll have to dig a bit deeper to look for shifts in that regard. What I can point out, is that James' free throw rate jumped from an impressive .478 to a staggering .547, and yet on the team level there is virtually no shift in free throw rate. To me, that (and the drop in TOV%) may be an indication of lots of open shots created at the basket, with such little defensive pressure that free throw rate was actually declining.

Varejao/Hickson come to mind here, they were both highly effective finishers on the PnR with James. In this stretch, we see Varejao shoot 65.7% from the floor (9.1 pts/g, 67.0% TS, up from 8.4 pts/g, 55.6% TS ), and we see Hickson shoot 56.6% from the floor (10.7 pts/g, 59.0% TS, up from 6.6 pts/g, 56.9% TS).

I also want to discuss the introduction of Jamison here, who may or may not have been all that helpful in the offense, despite being a stretch 4. In 11 Lebron PG games without him the offense was at +8.7, (Shaq played all 11 G), but in 21 Lebron PG games with him, the offense dropped to +6 (with Shaq playing in only 4 G). The presence of Shaq as a post/finishing threat may have been more helpful than the spacing effect that Jamison yielded, and the defensive woes of playing them together are also clear.

So what we're considering, is that give James an effective PnR finisher, and provide any sort of spacing and you're likely to get a strong offense. Have two of them, and provide a bunch of inconsistent above average outside shooters, and a half present low-post presence and you can probably yield an elite offense. Add in a second creator and consistent elite outside shooting (2013 Miami), and what could you get?

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Data

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2010 Cleveland Cavaliers

Full Season

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.6     112.1    105.0    6.52   -0.35    6.17   +4.6    -2.2    +6.8

Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.2     111.4    104.3    6.43   -0.20    6.64   +3.8    -3.1    +6.9

Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
90.7     114.8    105.1    8.84   -1.04    7.24   +7.0    -1.6    +8.6

Four Factors

Full Season

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.2%      25.1%       12.7%      .246
Defense       48.2%      77.2%       11.7%      .218

Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       53.1%      25.3%       13.5%      .247
Defense       47.5%      77.7%       12.0%      .241

Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       54.3%      25.3%       11.7%      .248
Defense       48.2%      76.5%       11.1%      .193

Lebron James

Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.0  29.7  7.3   8.6   41.8%   3.4   12.3%   60.4% +6.1%   33.5%  121
N/A   30.3  7.4   8.7   N/A     3.5   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Pre-PG Stretch 44 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.7  29.7  7.1   7.8   40.4%   3.6   12.9%   61.1% +6.8%   34.2%  121
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Lebron PG Stretch January 23rd - April 6th, 2010, 32 Games

Code: Select all

MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

39.5  29.7  7.5   9.6   43.8%   3.2   11.4%   59.6% +5.4%   33.4%  122
N/A   29.9  7.5   9.7   N/A     3.2   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

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So here's my thought process when considering "best". I care about who/what the best player/peak IS. I don't care about who performed the best given the circumstances (be it by box-score, +/-, "eye-test" or whatever else), whose team performed the best given the circumstances, who had the most impressive looking season, etc. What I care about is that when it comes down to it, which of these players gives me the best shot at a title on ANY team, and to do that, I have to dig deeper than simply looking at what stands out the most.

The ~90-100 games in a season are a showcase for the players to display what their capabilities are; they're pitted against a variety of opposing strategies/schemes (offense AND defense), ~400 different personnel and there's just a VAST amount shown off that goes beyond the box-score, there's so much to take in. So why focus on the glorious 35/9/7 62%TS in a 14 game sample against only 3 teams? Why should everything else observable be secondary? What if Lebron had faced the Thibs/Garnett Celtics that year? Why focus on 66 wins/8.7 SRS when we know that they feasted on weaker opponents at home (39-1 w/Lebron) and held a 3-5 combined record vs. LA/BOS/ORL and 3.7 SRS (with Garnett missing a game in there) and then 2-4 vs Orlando in the postseason. I"m not trying to simply put him or the Cavs down here, but I am trying to add in a little more context. I DO want to entertain hypotheticals though, not nonsensical ones mind you, but at least those that might force me to apply a more cerebral view on these players.

Oftentimes, when I try to do the above, I get the response "But I'm not concerned with what could have happened, I'm concerned with what did happen!". That's all fine and well, but then we're not answering the plain and simple question "Who was the best", instead we're answering "Who was the best...given their teammate/roster construction, team coaching/strategy, opposing coaching/strategy, matchups faced, league-wide injuries, etc." and that's not quite the same.

So let's dive in for a second. Let's take a look at 09 vs. 10. The key arguments I see are better record (though the 2010 Cavs were 60-16 with Lebron IN and 1-5 with him out), better RS stats due to fewer minutes in 09 and better PER, and far better postseason stats. On the other hand RAPM seems to like 2010 better (+9.6 vs. +8.1 on the GotBuckets.com set). Yet, so often when I see a summary or comparison and RAPM is brought up, there's rarely ever any effort to discern why this difference exists, its simply pointed to as another stat, and then a counter-argument (vs 2010) is levied via box-score. So let's instead answer that why right now.

Defensively the two years are similar (I personally rate them the same, both slightly lower than his best Miami years). 09 has an arguably slightly better motor and rebounding, 2010 has better instincts and smarter reads/reactions/rotations (less blocks because he's in better position to deter, less steals because he's gambling a bit less and is forcing weaker plays via the threat of his presence in the passing lanes). Transition is about the same, maybe slightly better awareness and hands in 2010.

There are clear improvements in his offensive game (which is where most of the RAPM difference shows up). 2010 Lebron is better equipped than 2009 Lebron to bolster teams on offense AND face tougher defenses. He's developed his ball-control/handling a bit, particularly in being able to set himself up for jumpshots in the mid-range (though also from deep) by creating separation AND he's improved his shooting mechanics. As a result he's a better pullup shooter from midrange AND outside (which greatly expands his on-ball game and makes him a greater live-ball threat and by definition more deadly initiating offense), his 3-point shot as a whole is improved due to the mechanics (% is misleading, his volume is way up, and he's being assisted on far less than 09 because of his ability to now just pullup for tough 3 pointers which is bonkers for spacing even if they're hit at like a 30% clip) and this makes him far more dynamic in the halfcourt creating for himself. He's also added upper body mass without sacrificing explosion/first-step quickness, which makes him a deadlier finisher on the drive going in either direction, better finisher in the lane (one of his top years from 3-10 feet), but also makes him a tougher guard in the low-post, where he's dabbling a little bit (though focusing on playmaking than scoring - he's beginning to learn that he'll always draw help or draw a foul and taking advantage of it on occasion). This combined with the improved shooting makes it so that he can better balance his attack when he's looking to create, and serves to enhance his slashing game (09 and 10 are the peak of his slashing game - in 09 defenses hadn't quite adjusted to his improvements/progression yet so the slashing yielded better stats, in 10 defenses had begun to adjust, so instead the slashing yielded greater team lift and as a result notably more assists- similar to how JLei describes 12 vs. 13/14 above). Also now dabbling in the mid-post, not much back-to-basket play but he can use his quickness out of a face-up to blow by defenders quickly for high % shots, and he loves reversing the ball over the top to hit the corners. So we've got all of those improvements, another year of experience, and IMO he's got better game management skills - better at controlling pace/tempo, better at reading his teammates and getting/finding them in good position, better at recognizing when/when not to be aggressive, etc.

Recognize all of this (and consider my post from above as well) and I think it starts to become clear why the impact stats tend to prefer this yea. On the defensive end, this version of Lebron is more or less the same as the year before, and on offense, he's pretty much better at everything, and it's being captured. He's less likely to be slowed down by a defense, and imparts a greater non-box-score impact on his team due to the refinements in his game. I don't care that 2009 Lebron was able to look far more successful in the playoffs given what he had - I'm confident that if we throw 09 and 10 Lebron into 10, 100, 1000 different situations, on average 2010 will give you the better results, and that's what matters to me, not simply "what happened" because IMO that's too constrained of a sample/perspective.

Real quick, early Miami seasons before diving into 2013. 2012 IMO is and will be Lebron's most overrated season (again, mostly because of honing in on playoff results and box-score). Best defense of his career (2013 had stretches that were better but the motor and consistency in 2012 were superior), but his offensive game is highly limited. He gained major upper body weight in 2011 which drastically hampered his quickness/explosion/coordination/fluidity and basically lost his bread-and-butter slashing game. What made him so unique, deadly, and impactful in the first place (and what made 09 and 10 such Titanic seasons) was gone and we were left with a Lebron that was a shell of himself, arguably the 2nd best player on his own team and nowhere near the GOAT level player we had just seen in the two years prior. Fortunately this forced him to work on his skillset quite a bit, and in the 11 offseason he also shed some weight. It wasn't quite enough though, while he did regain a small amount of his fluidity back in 2012, he still wasn't anywhere near 09/10 or what he would be in 13-15 either. His jumper also unfortunately regressed from 2011 (might've been a hand injury early in the season), but beginning to dabble in the post, improved on-ball creation skills and slightly improved physicality helped him ramp up his offense a bit. Couple that with the improved defense and this is still a hell of a year, but really this is no better than the 5th best version of Lebron IMO (09/10/13/14 maybe 15), his offense was simply underwhelming - highly opportunistic scoring, relatively weak ability to create (hope for over-commit on PnR, little to no slashing, just not a lot of impact beyond the basic box-score). In the playoffs he had long stretches of just not imprinting any impact on the game - when the jumpshot was off and the middle even slightly loaded up there were times when he displayed no option other than just stand in a corner and well, do nothing. No threat of movement, no establishing position, just a whole load of nothing - non-impact play, something that I just don't see from 09/10/13/14/15 because of the greater diversity of options and this simply does not cut it. Game 6 is awesome, all the credit in the world to him for pulling that one off, but one game does not make a player/season - I just don't have the confidence in this Lebron's skills/ability to lead me to a title in the way that I do the others I keep championing. With regards to the actual run itself, I think the competition is a bit overrated - level of offensive play increased as the lockout season progressed, thus the defensive ratings the Heat faced oversell how good the defenses actually work (though this could then inversely be a credit to their defensive performance, though outside of OKC they mostly faced weak offensive squads).

Now, moving onto 2013, he sheds some considerable weight (to the point where he's now resembling the old Lebron and where his slashing game is starting to get back to best in the league level again) AND makes some major improvements to his skills (notably getting more comfortable in the post, playing more frequently/smarter off the ball AND acquiring an elite jumpshot from all areas on the floor). Now things get a little interesting, because this is how I personally rate the three seasons we're discussing at this point.

09 +7.50 (+5.50 Off/+2.00 Def)
10 +8.00 (+6.00 Off/+2.00 Def)
13 +8.00 (+5.75 Off/+2.25 Def)

The reason I favor 2013 most of all is portability, and a large part of that is defense, as defense is inherently additive vs. offense (don't have to worry about one player controlling the ball on that end - hell off-ball/help defense tend to be more important that single coverage anyway!). Best season on the glass of his career, probably better rotations (fewer errors/misses) than 2012, better lateral movement as well due to the shed weight and there's an explosive activeness to his defense at times in the postseason, but there's a drop in consistency and he has issues sustaining it (lazy 1st half of RS, gets gassed in the late season) so I've penalized him a little bit relative to 2012.

Offensively the changes I mentioned above lead to some pretty drastic improvements (+4.5 O in 2012 -->+5.75 O 2013), he's got his slashing game back, though not quite at 09/10 levels, still leagues ahead of 11/12. He's now a highly effective floor spacer, whether up top or in the corner, and he's constantly moving off the ball to put himself into positions that can pressure the defense. 2010 probably applies more disruption to defenses, but 2013 applies more dynamic pressure, and this is very valuable in terms of roster/lineup diversity - 2013 gives you far more wiggle room for success, he can fill a lot more gaps across the board (and all of this goes relative to 09 as well), without yielding his BnB; he's like diet Larry Bird with better athleticism -> slashing. I see this season as pretty close to 2010 ITO offense, and I can be swayed either way. I DO prefer this season for offensive portability though, the improved off-ball/post game combined with the insane level of outside shooting (amongst the top spot-up 3 point shooters in the league - so valuable in today's era) and its hard to argue with this being a more meshable skillset than 2010 even if I think 2010 has slightly more potential for impact (though at higher and higher team levels 13 becomes more and more preferable).

Lastly, 2014. I've rambled on way longer than I should have so I'll keep it as simple as possible. This is his clear offensive peak. Takes everything he does in 2013 and does it better in 2014, MUCH better post-game (to the point where in 14 and 15 IMO he's the league's best low-post player), MUCH better game off the ball (guess who scored a greater % of their buckets off the ball, Durant or James?), better shooting (mid-range regresses a bit in the RS but by the playoffs his jumpshot's on fire from virtually everywhere, 3 point shooting is a little bit better as he incorporates the 2010 pullup from outside again). But above all else, after shedding some more weight, he's brought his athleticism back to the closest its ever been to the late Cleveland years and pretty much brings his slashing game nearly on par with those years. Put it all together and we're looking at a near GOAT level offensive player. Unfortunately he regresses quite a bit defensively, there's just no consistency to his effort in the RS, and at times even his smarts seem absent (this is mostly laziness/poor stamina, given that in 2015 he looked VERY good). There's improvement in the 2nd half of the season, slightly better effort and activity, and in the postseason there are times where he looks like his old self, but its evident that he has a hard time sustaining it and while he's still a positive, he's a long way down from the crazy stuff we were seeing in years prior. Still, the offense makes up for it, and this is actually the postseason that I'm most impressed with from him out of all years.

SUMMARY: 2013 is my pick. Not his best offense/defense/stamina/athleticism, but at the end of the day its the best combination of everything and a year in which he displayed portable/scale-able two-way play.

Amazing post!! You make me change my mind. I'm choosing 2013 year if it's not too late.
I agree with you about 2014 LeBron. He was defitely at his best offensively. As a Spurs fan, I was scared every time he gets the ball. Unfourtanetly, his defense was much more inconsistent than year later.

[Joao Saraiva]

09 for me.

He had a better motor, better athleticism, one of the quickest 1st steps ever, it was his best year between the ones I consider (09, 12 and 13) in open court situations both on offense and defense.

His jumper was reliable, particularly in playoff time.

He was the MVP, #2 DPOY and had an amazing playoff run.

66 wins with that cast is almost an impossible achievment.

I still have 2012 in the discussion, but I still feel 09 was his best year.

[Narigo]

LeBron's offensive game was more developed in 2013. His jumper, post game, off ball game and decision making were improved. To be honest, I dont think he had a weakness in his game. So for me, Im going with 2013 LeBron James.

[trex_8063]

Calling it a draw on Lebron James. Between his induction thread and this one, we have 21 votes (one of which went undecided and voted '09/'13). We have an exact split: 10.5 to 10.5.

Let's move on. Looks like Wilt is the next in, and we'll need a new vote on what year you all think is Wilt's peak. For reasons I've stated in prior threads, I'm going with '64.

[RSCD3_]

Calling it a draw on Lebron James. Between his induction thread and this one, we have 21 votes (one of which went undecided and voted '09/'13). We have an exact split: 10.5 to 10.5.

Let's move on. Looks like Wilt is the next in, and we'll need a new vote on what year you all think is Wilt's peak. For reasons I've stated in prior threads, I'm going with '64.

I've just changed my vote to 13 FWIW