RealGM

What I am setting out to do is to compare how to champions hold up their resiliency in the playoffs by finding how they perform against opponents vs how they are expected which assumes that a team's average net ratings are obtained against the breadth of the NBA. Therefore if a team has a Offensive rating of 110.2 ORTG and their opponent has a DRTG of 105.5 when the League Average is 104.5, that means against a team with a +1.0 Defense, this offense is expected to perform at a 111.2 level. The same thoughts apply on defense.

2015 Warriors RS ORTG: 111.6 RS DRTG: 101.4 League Average: 105.6, +6.0 ORTG / -4.2 DRTG

Pelicans RS Splits: 108.2 ORTG, 107.3 DRTG. (+2.6/+1.7) Expected Values: 112.3 ORTG / 104.0 DRTG
Overall Performance: 115.8 ORTG / 107.3 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+3.5/+3.3/+0.2)

Grizzlies RS Splits: 105.7 ORTG, 102.2 DRTG. (+0.1/-3.4) Expected Values: 108.2 ORTG / 101.5 DRTG
Overall Performance: 107.0 ORTG / 98.2 DRTG, Expectation Score: (-1.2/-3.3/+2.1)

Rockets RS Splits: 107.0 ORTG, 103.4 DRTG. (+1.4/-2.2) Expected Values: 109.4 ORTG / 102.8 DRTG
Overall Performance: 110.7 ORTG / 102.4 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+1.3/-0.4/+1.7)

Cavaliers RS Splits: 111.1 ORTG, 106.3 DRTG. (+5.5/+0.7) Expected Values: 112.3 ORTG / 106.9 DRTG
Overall Performance: 107.3 ORTG / 99.6 DRTG, Expectation Score: (-5.0/-7.3/+2.3)

Weighted Performance Value: +1.70 Overall (7th) -0.79 Offensively (8th ) -2.49 Defensively: ( 1st )


2014 Spurs RS ORTG: 110.5 RS DRTG: 102.4 League Average: 106.7, +3.8 ORTG / -4.3 DRTG

Dallas RS Splits: 111.2 ORTG, 108.7 DRTG. (+4.5/+2.0) Expected Values: 112.5 ORTG / 106.9 DRTG
Overall Performance: 113.1 ORTG / 110.9 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+0.6/+4.0/-3.4)

Portland RS Splits: 111.5 ORTG, 107.4 DRTG. (+4.8/+0.7) Expected Values: 111.2 ORTG / 107.0 DRTG
Overall Performance: 113.1 ORTG / 99.2 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+1.9/-7.8/+9.7)

Oklahoma RS Splits: 110.5 ORTG, 103.9 DRTG. (+3.8/-2.8) Expected Values: 107.7 ORTG / 106.2 DRTG
Overall Performance: 114.4 ORTG / 103.3 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+6.7/-2.9/+9.6)

Miami RS Splits: 110.9 ORTG, 105.8 DRTG. (+4.2/-0.9) Expected Values: 109.6 ORTG / 106.6 DRTG
Overall Performance: 120.8 ORTG / 104.8 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+11.2/-1.8/+13.0)

Weighted Performance Value: +7.37 Overall (1st) +5.50 Offensively ( 4th ) -1.87 Defensively: ( 2nd )


2013 Heat RS ORTG: 112.3 RS DRTG: 103.7 League Average: 105.9, +6.4 ORTG / -2.2 DRTG

Bucks RS Splits: 103.6 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG. (-2.3/-0.7) Expected Values: 111.7 ORTG / 101.4 DRTG
Overall Performance: 111.0 ORTG / 94.6 DRTG, Expectation Score: (-0.7/-6.8/+6.1)

Bulls RS Splits: 103.5 ORTG, 103.2 DRTG. (-2.4/-2.7) Expected Values: 109.6 ORTG / 101.3 DRTG
Overall Performance: 114.1 ORTG / 98.7 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+4.5/-2.6/+7.1)

Pacers RS Splits: 104.3 ORTG, 99.8 DRTG. (-1.6/-6.1) Expected Values: 106.2 ORTG / 102.1 DRTG
Overall Performance: 111.9 ORTG / 107.2 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+5.7/+5.1/+0.6)

Spurs RS Splits: 108.3 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG. (+2.4/-4.3) Expected Values: 108.0 ORTG / 106.1 DRTG
Overall Performance: 108.5 ORTG / 109.3 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+0.5/+3.3/-2.8)

Weighted Performance Value: +1.93 Overall (6th) +2.74 Offensively ( 5th ) +0.81 Defensively: ( 5th )

2010-2012


2007-2009



Will update over time, this takes a really long time but I hope to get to at 1984, probably once every few days or so.

Top Overall

1. 2014 SAS +7.37
2. 2011 DAL +7.20
3. 2012 MIA +5.61
4. 2009 LAL +4.26
5. 2010 LAL +3.74
6. 2013 MIA +1.93
7. 2015 GSW +1.70
8. 2008 BOS -2.19

Top Offense

1. 2012 MIA +7.29
2. 2010 LAL +6.30
3. 2011 DAL +5.84
4. 2014 SA +5.50
5. 2013 MIA +2.74
6. 2009 LA +2.54
7. 2008 BOS +1.69
8. 2015 GSW -0.79

Top Defense

1. 2015 GSW -2.49
2. 2014 SAS -1.87
3. 2009 LAL -1.72
4. 2011 DAL -1.36
5. 2013 MIA +0.81
6. 2012 MIA +1.68
7. 2010 LAL +2.56
8. 2008 BOS +3.88

I AND 1'd you, but just also wanted to give a note of encouragement.

Also feel free to keep it on this board, but you might consider asking to move it to the Stats board eventually. I know the audience is much bigger here but that also means that you might find yourself just bumping the thread and watching it fall away again and again.

No pressure though. Cheers!

This might help: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cYQvL7dPBmFtj01nUtiFR8bESE4e8x9a9QnhVt6FwjU/edit?usp=sharing

You could do a diff comparison with RS Off/Def (or I can add it to the spreadsheet, I have it too).

RSCD3_ wrote:2015 Warriors RS ORTG: 111.6 RS DRTG: 101.4 League Average: 105.6, +6.0 ORTG / -4.2 DRTG

Pelicans RS Splits: 108.2 ORTG, 107.3 DRTG. (+2.6/+0.7) Expected Values: 112.3 ORTG / 104.0 DRTG

How did you calculate expected values?

lorak wrote:

RSCD3_ wrote:2015 Warriors RS ORTG: 111.6 RS DRTG: 101.4 League Average: 105.6, +6.0 ORTG / -4.2 DRTG

Pelicans RS Splits: 108.2 ORTG, 107.3 DRTG. (+2.6/+0.7) Expected Values: 112.3 ORTG / 104.0 DRTG

How did you calculate expected values?

I used a rather simple method that because the Warriors in this case has a 111.6 ORTG against every opponents that means against an opponent and the average of all teams in the nba is 0.0 since it was 104,1/104.1 with a 0.0 defense, they would average the same ORTG, while since the pelicans were +0.7 on defense the warriors would score 0.7 more ORTG while giving up 2.6 more DRTG and the net rating would be an expected 8.3 ( ORTG - DRTG ) since against normal opponents they have a 10.2 net rating and the pelicans total is 1.9.

It's not the most sophisticated method but I love working on it.

Here is 10-12. I'll probably be releasing this in three's.

2012 Heat RS ORTG: 106.6 RS DRTG: 100.2 League Average: 104.6, +2.0 ORTG / -4.4 DRTG

Knicks RS Splits: 104.4 ORTG, 101.0 DRTG. (-0.2/-3.6) Expected Values: 103.0 ORTG / 100.0 DRTG
Overall Performance: 112.9 ORTG / 96.6 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+9.9/-3.4/+13.3)

Pacers RS Splits: 106.7 ORTG, 103.1 DRTG. (+2.1/-1.3) Expected Values: 105.3 ORTG / 102.3 DRTG
Overall Performance: 106.6 ORTG / 99.2 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+1.3/-3.1/+4.4)

Celtics RS Splits: 101.0 ORTG, 98.2 DRTG. (-3.6/-6.4) Expected Values: 100.2 ORTG / 96.6 DRTG
Overall Performance: 108.9 ORTG / 103.5 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+8.7/+6.9/+1.8)

Thunder RS Splits: 109.8 ORTG, 103.2 DRTG. (+5.2/-1.4) Expected Values: 105.2 ORTG / 105.4 DRTG
Overall Performance: 115.1 ORTG / 110.6 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+9.9/+5.2/+4.7)

Weighted Performance Value: +5.61 Overall ( Rank 2nd...for now) +7.29 Offensively ( 1st ) +1.68 Defensively: ( 4th )


2011 Mavericks RS ORTG: 110.5 RS DRTG: 102.4 League Average: 107.3, +3.8 ORTG / -4.3 DRTG

Portland RS Splits: 108.8 ORTG, 107.1 DRTG. (+1.5/-0.2) Expected Values: 109.5 ORTG / 106.5 DRTG
Overall Performance: 113.4 ORTG / 107.1 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+3.9/+0.6/+3.3)

Los Angeles (Lakers) RS Splits: 111.0 ORTG, 104.3 DRTG. (+3.7/-3.0) Expected Values: 106.7 ORTG / 108.7 DRTG
Overall Performance: 116.7 ORTG / 100.7 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+10.0/-8.0/+18.0)

Oklahoma RS Splits: 111.2 ORTG, 107.2 DRTG. (+3.9/-0.7) Expected Values: 109.0 ORTG / 108.9 DRTG
Overall Performance: 115.1 ORTG / 110.7 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+6.1/+1.8/+4.3)

Miami RS Splits: 111.7 ORTG, 103.5 DRTG. (+4.4/-3.8) Expected Values: 105.9 ORTG / 109.4 DRTG
Overall Performance: 110.7 ORTG / 107.9 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+4.8/-1.5/+6.3)

Weighted Performance Value: +7.20 Overall ( Rank 2nd...for now) +5.84 Offensively ( 3rd ) -1.87 Defensively: ( 3rd )


2010 Lakers RS ORTG: 108.8 RS DRTG: 103.7 League Average: 107.6, +1.2 ORTG / -3.9 DRTG

Thunder RS Splits: 108.3 ORTG, 104.6 DRTG. (+0.7/-3.0) Expected Values: 105.8 ORTG / 104.4 DRTG
Overall Performance: 106.4 ORTG / 104.6 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+0.6/+0.2/+0.4)

Jazz RS Splits: 110.7 ORTG, 105.0 DRTG. (+3.1/-2.6) Expected Values: 106.2 ORTG / 106.8 DRTG
Overall Performance: 120.4 ORTG / 112.5 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+14.2/+5.7/+8.5)

Suns RS Splits: 115.3 ORTG, 110.2 DRTG. (+7.7/+2.6) Expected Values: 111.4 ORTG / 111.4 DRTG
Overall Performance: 124.2 ORTG / 119.6 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+12.8/+8.2/+4.6)

Celtics RS Splits: 107.7 ORTG, 103.8 DRTG. (+0.1/-3.8) Expected Values: 105.0 ORTG / 103.8 DRTG
Overall Performance: 106.1 ORTG / 102.1 DRTG, Expectation Score: (+1.1/-1.7/+2.8)

Weighted Performance Value: +3.74 Overall ( Rank 2nd...for now) +6.30 Offensively ( 2nd ) +2.56 Defensively: ( 6th )

RSCD3_ wrote:

lorak wrote:

RSCD3_ wrote:2015 Warriors RS ORTG: 111.6 RS DRTG: 101.4 League Average: 105.6, +6.0 ORTG / -4.2 DRTG

Pelicans RS Splits: 108.2 ORTG, 107.3 DRTG. (+2.6/+0.7) Expected Values: 112.3 ORTG / 104.0 DRTG

How did you calculate expected values?

I used a rather simple method that because the Warriors in this case has a 111.6 ORTG against every opponents that means against an opponent and the average of all teams in the nba is 0.0 since it was 104,1/104.1 with a 0.0 defense, they would average the same ORTG, while since the pelicans were +0.7 on defense the warriors would score 0.7 more ORTG while giving up 2.6 more DRTG and the net rating would be an expected 8.3 ( ORTG - DRTG ) since against normal opponents they have a 10.2 net rating and the pelicans total is 1.9.

1. Why 104.1 when LA was 105.6?
2. NOP were +1.7 on defense, right?
3. Shouldn't expected ORTG for GSW (and DRTG for NOP) be calculated that way: (GSW RS ORTG+NOP RS DRTG)/2, so 109.5?