Revisiting the 2006 MVP Award

[SlowPaced]

I was doing a bit of research on the 2006 MVP Award and I ended up being way less convinced that Steve Nash deserved that award than I was before. Nash's main argument is that he kept the Suns as a #2 seed even though Amar'e was injured all season. He had an even better individual season than his MVP winning '05 season, posted 18-10-4 and became a member of the 50-40-90 club.

However, the carry job we're seeing from Russell Westbrook really got me thinking about the carry jobs by LeBron James and Kobe Bryant that same year.

LeBron James posted 31-7-7, and led a starting five of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes and Eric Snow to 50 wins. That's a only four wins less than what Nash led a starting five of Kurt Thomas, Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw and Raja Bell with Leandro Barbosa off the bench to. Looking at advanced stats:

LeBron: 28.1 PER, 23.2% WS/48, 16.3 WS, 12.0 OWS, 4.3 DWS, 9.3 BPM, 7.9 OBPM, 1.4 DBPM, 9.5 VORP, +10.4 On/Off, 56.8 TS%, 51.5 eFG%
Nash: 23.3 PER, 21.2% WS/48, 12.4 WS, 10.3 OWS, 2.1 DWS, 3.7 BPM, 5.4 OBPM, -1.6 DBPM, 4.0 VORP, +9.1 On/Off, 63.2 TS%, 58.3 eFG%

TS% and eFG% are the only advanced stats that come out with Nash on top, but the volume is drastically different -LeBron had 10 more FGA per game- so I don't think it tells much of a story. LeBron is clearly the superior performer here and he won only four games less than the Suns with a weaker supporting cast. A counter-argument could be that East was weaker than the West, but even if you take that into account, I don't think it really erases the deficit.

Kobe Bryant posted 35-5-4, and led a starting five of Kwame Brown, Brian Cook, Lamar Odom and Smush Parker to 45 wins. That's nine wins less than Nash's win total, with a supporting cast that was even weaker than what LeBron had with three starters who barely belonged in the league. Looking at advanced stats:

Kobe: 28.0 PER, 22.4% WS/48, 15.3 WS, 11.6 OWS, 3.7 DWS, 5.8 BPM, 7.3 OBPM, -1.5 DBPM, 6.5 VORP, +12.6 On/Off, 55.9 TS%, %49.1 eFG%
Nash: 23.3 PER, 21.2% WS/48, 12.4 WS, 10.3 OWS, 2.1 DWS, 3.7 BPM, 5.4 OBPM, -1.6 DBPM, 4.0 VORP, +9.1 On/Off, 63.2 TS%, 58.3 eFG%

Again, TS% and eFG% are the only advanced stats that come out with Nash on top, but the volume is drastically different -Kobe had 14 more FGA per game-. Kobe won 9 games less in the same conference, but the cliff between the supporting casts of each player really suggests the number should've been way larger.

A belief of mine after all this is that the voters felt obliged to give the award to Nash, because he had a more impressive individual season than the previous season where he won the MVP. I also think Shaq deserved the award over Nash in 2005, so not giving it to Shaq in '05 could've paved the way for another wrong choice here.

So, what do you think about the 2006 MVP Award? Did Steve Nash deserve to win? If not, who would you given it to instead? -Added some options on the poll that I haven't mentioned here but are frequently mentioned as candidates for 2006-

[Quotatious]

I think that in terms of narrative, Nash deserved it, considering how the Suns were still elite without Amar'e, but my pick for the MVP would be Dirk. Led his team to 60 wins, which is a clear overachievement considering the talent he had around him (which was very solid, but on paper it was not good enough to win 60 games in the 2006 Western conference), led the league in PER and WS.

My top 5 for 2006 season is:

1. Wade
2. Dirk
3. LeBron
4. Kobe
5. Nash

This is taking both RS and playoffs into account. RS only, I would have Wade behind Dirk, LeBron, Kobe and Nash, his postseason run was just really special.

Kobe gets a ton of love for his 2006 season because he averaged 35 ppg and carried that weak roster to the playoffs, but I don't think he was better than LeBron. Kobe was a better scorer, but LeBron was a better all-around player and defender that season, led his team to more wins with a mediocre roster around him, also. Advanced metrics generally favor LBJ, as usual (although I think it is very close that season between LBJ and KB, just a slight edge to James).

[RCM88x]

Dirk is probably the winner for me. Lead his team to 60 wins, #1 in PER, #1 in Win Shares, #1 in WS/48, 26.6/9/3 on 48/40/90...

Perhaps you could just throw Shaq in there as well, 20/9/2/2 on 60% shooting, but you could also argue Wade was better in the regular season, so probably not.

I'd probably put Dirk first, Nash 2nd, and then have Lebron and Kobe tied for 3rd. No one else really has that compelling on an argument. Not really that compelling of an MVP race, and probably a year that no one really disserved the award, heads and tails over everyone else.

[Quotatious]

Perhaps you could just throw Shaq in there as well, 20/9/2/2 on 60% shooting, but you could also argue Wade was better in the regular season, so probably not.

Shaq wasn't even remotely close to MVP level in 2006. In 2005, he was, but 2006 Shaq was not close to superstar level (and as it turned out in the playoffs, Dampier and Diop held him to less than 14 ppg in the finals).

Brand, Garnett, Duncan, were all much better bigs than Shaq in '06.

[SlowPaced]

I think that in terms of narrative, Nash deserved it, considering how the Suns were still elite without Amar'e,

Even the narrative shouldn't get Nash the award imo. Narrative was with Kobe that season, he did some truly remarkable, unforgettable things. (81, outscoring the Mavs after three quarters, 40 PPG January)

I honestly think Nash was probably the only 4th most deserving candidate at best here, which is crazy. Dirk, LeBron and Kobe all deserved it over him.

[juice4080]

in retrospect wade was clearly the best player but back then i had no problem with nash winning

[The_Hater]

Nash is my favourite player of all time and I still think he won 2 MVP's he shouldn't have.

Definitley Wade in 2006.

[Quotatious]

in retrospect wade was clearly the best player but back then i had no problem with nash winning

I agree Wade was the best player if we look at the entire season, but remember that we're talking about regular season MVP here. Wade had a very good RS, but I would say there are 5-6 guys with better regular seasons than him that year.

[RCM88x]

Perhaps you could just throw Shaq in there as well, 20/9/2/2 on 60% shooting, but you could also argue Wade was better in the regular season, so probably not.

Shaq wasn't even remotely close to MVP level in 2006. In 2005, he was, but 2006 Shaq was not close to superstar level (and as it turned out in the playoffs, Dampier and Diop held him to less than 14 ppg in the finals).

Brand, Garnett, Duncan, were all much better bigs than Shaq in '06.

Yea, looking through all of the other bigs there are quite a few more deserving. He was on the first team All-NBA though, which is probably more telling of the poor state of the Center position in 06 rather than Shaq's play. His playoffs were even more disappointing, as you said. He basically made the Heat worse overall, which is rather impressive, in a bad way.

[Quotatious]

Yea, looking through all of the other bigs there are quite a few more deserving. He was on the first team All-NBA though, which is probably more telling of the poor state of the Center position in 06 rather than Shaq's play.

Absolutely. Ben Wallace may've been the best center that year. Yao missed a ton of games, Dwight was still very young, and definitely not All-NBA 1st team caliber (he became that in 2008).

I wouldn't say Shaq made the Heat worse overall, definitely not (he had a great series against Detroit in ECF, and still averaged 18.4/9.8 for the entire playoffs), but he was just a regular all-star, not a superstar. Wade's phenomenal finals performance made up for Shaq's struggles.

[Big NBA Fan]

The only year I would have been OK with Nash winning the MVP would have been 2007.

2005 should have been Shaq and 2006 should have been either Kobe or Dirk.

But Shaq was done as an MVP-caliber player after his first year in Miami; he had his moments in 2006, but was no longer consistently dominant.

Fortunately for the Heat, he came up huge against the Pistons in the ECF that year. He was brilliant in that series.

[Big NBA Fan]

It's no wonder Kobe got so frustrated with the Lakers before the Gasol trade. Outside of Odom, that team was a joke in 2006 and Kobe was THIS close to beating Nash in the first round in 6 games without home court advantage.

Just like Wade's rib injury cost the Heat the 2005 ECF against the Pistons.

Yes, Nash got unlucky at times in the playoffs, BUT, he was also lucky that Tim Thomas hit that shot in Game 6 to force OT and that Wade got hurt in 2005, because it would have made the media look dumb for giving those MVP's to him when they should have been Shaq and Kobe in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

Heat would have made the Finals in 2005 if not for Wade's injury and Kobe was so close to pulling off a major upset against the much more talented Suns in 2006.

[Ron Swanson]

Hard to say that Nash didn't deserve it the year prior based on team impact and narrative, but Kobe absolutely deserved it more in '06. 35 PPG on 56% TS, 28 PER, leading a garbage supporting cast to 45 wins and one of the most impressive instances of single-handedly carrying an offense in league history.

The issue I have with a lot of the mid-late 2000s MVP award winners is that it had a domino effect on other more deserving candidates. If Kobe win the '06 MVP, then the voters don't gift him the MVP in 2007-08 over a more deserving Chris Paul. It was basically a legacy award because voters felt guilty for never giving him an MVP, and only because his team won more games, despite the addition of Pau obviously being the major difference.

[penbeast0]

Heck, I was voting for Marion for the award over Nash; he made up for so many issues and did so many different things with Amare out that year. Dirk was probably my top choice too and Wade over Shaq (I was down here in South Florida that year). I was impressed by LeBron but not quite enough and I thought Kobe was just too much of a gunner (49 ts% on that high a volume bothered me) though I understood why he was so frustrated that he didn't want to trust those particular teammates with passes.

[Quotatious]

I thought Kobe was just too much of a gunner (49 ts% on that high a volume bothered me) though I understood why he was so frustrated that he didn't want to trust those particular teammates with passes.

What 49% TS? Kobe shot 56% TS in '06, he was clearly above average efficiency-wise, especially if you factor in his very low turnovers. As critical as I can be of Kobe, he was always a decently efficient scorer and overall offensive player in his prime.

I'm glad you mentioned Marion, though. He was fantastic in that 2005-06 season, both in the regular season and playoffs.

[Rapcity_11]

Nash is my favourite player of all time and I still think he won 2 MVP's he shouldn't have.

Definitley Wade in 2006.

What's the argument for Wade over Dirk in the regular season? I don't see it.

[SlowPaced]

I thought Kobe was just too much of a gunner (49 ts% on that high a volume bothered me) though I understood why he was so frustrated that he didn't want to trust those particular teammates with passes.

What 49% TS? Kobe shot 56% TS in '06, he was clearly above average efficiency-wise, especially if you factor in his very low turnovers. As critical as I can be of Kobe, he was always a decently efficient scorer an overall offensive player in his prime.

I'm glad you mentioned Marion, though. He was fantastic in that 2005-06 season, both in the regular season and playoffs.

He confused eFG% with TS% I think, Kobe had a 49.1 eFG% that season.

[andrewww]

Heck, I was voting for Marion for the award over Nash; he made up for so many issues and did so many different things with Amare out that year. Dirk was probably my top choice too and Wade over Shaq (I was down here in South Florida that year). I was impressed by LeBron but not quite enough and I thought Kobe was just too much of a gunner (49 ts% on that high a volume bothered me) though I understood why he was so frustrated that he didn't want to trust those particular teammates with passes.

You do know that it was Phil who instructed Kobe to look for his shot during the RS and then scale it back against Phoenix in the first round, of which he followed through in both cases.

When you have Kwame Brown/Chris Mihm/Smush Parker as your rotation players can you really fault Phil for coaching Kobe up that way in 2006?

[feyki]

Dirk then Nash and then Kobe .

[GSP]

Dirk should've been the b2b Mvp not Nash

Ppl were more reserved in picking Dirk but after the postseason he had in 06 voters were more comfortable in 07