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RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:21 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. ????

...
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#2 » by colts18 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 3:33 pm

Vote #1: Shaq

The case for Shaq


Prime:

Shaq's 6 year prime is right up there with MJ. 98-03, Shaq was the best player in the league every year of that span with the exception of 99.


Regular season:
28.1 PPG
11.8 Reb
3.1 AST
2.8 Turnovers
2.4 Blk
.577 FG%
.585 TS%
29.9 PER
.255 WS/48

He lead the league in PER and FG% every year from 98-02

Postseason:
29.3 PPG
13.7 Reb
3.0 AST
2.4 BLK
.554 FG%
.565 TS%
29.6 PER
.228 WS/48

During the 3peat years he averaged 30-15-3, .55 FG%, 29.3 PER (that's right, his PER was better outside the 3 peat years than during them) - See more at: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1124737#sthash.lqQVN3ib.dpuf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Playoff prime

Shaq's playoff prime was amazing. From 95-04, Shaq averaged 27-13-3, 56 FG%. Amazing when you consider that according to ElGee, Shaq faced the toughest postseason defensive slate of any superstar of the past 25 years.

Peak:
In this thread I made the case for Shaq having the GOAT peak in 2000. 2000 was Shaq's defensive peak and possibly his best offensive year.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1236093" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RAPM:
Shaq has not only dominated in box score stats, he also fares well in plus/minus stats especially on offense.
2001: 2nd (1st in offense)
2002: 1st (1st in offense, 4th in defense, ahead of Duncan and D-Rob)
2003: 3rd (1st in offense)
2004: 1st (1st in offense, 26th in defense)
2005: 3rd (5th in offense)
2006: 5th (5th in offense)



Missed games:
Shaq missed a lot of games in his prime, but the missed games did a lot to show his impact. His teams were consistently worse without him than with him. He has a big enough missed game sample size to accurately gauge his impact.

SRS

Code: Select all

Year   w/o   With    diff
1993   -12.02   1.52   13.54
1994   -2.24   3.75   5.99
1995   -2.85   6.72   9.57
1996   2.60   6.85   4.25
1997   1.63   4.41   2.78
1998   3.66   8.06   4.40
1999   -8.17   2.90   11.07
2000   -11.16   9.15   20.31
2001   2.59   3.86   1.28
2002   1.49   8.42   6.93
2003   -2.97   3.98   6.96
2004   3.34   4.58   1.23
2005   2.97   6.10   3.14
2006   -0.07   5.02   5.08


From 93-06, Shaq’s teams were a weighted 5.81 SRS in the games he played, and a 1.22 SRS in the games he missed for a total impact of 4.60 SRS. His teams were 97-78 (.554) in the games he missed. His teams played 45.5 win pace in the games he missed and a 59.8 win pace in the games he played (+14.4 win impact).

Kobe vs Shaq
The games that Shaq and Kobe missed from 1998-2004 showed which guy was more important to the success of the team. The Lakers were mediocre without Shaq, but in the games Kobe missed, they didn’t miss a beat.
Games Kobe missed and Shaq played in, 98-04:

28-6 (.824, 68 win pace)
5.90 SRS
Games Shaq missed, 98-04:
33-31 (.516, 42 win pace)
0.58 SRS

01-04 plus/minus stats:
Shaq/Kobe on court: +9.2 points per 100 possessions
Shaq, no Kobe: +5.2 per 100
Kobe, no Shaq: -2.9 per 100
No Shaq or Kobe: -7.3 per 100

Playoffs:
Shaq/Kobe on court: +7.9 per 100
Shaq, no Kobe: -3.7 per 100
Kobe, no Shaq: -13.4 per 100
No Shaq or Kobe: -10 per 100

Finals:

Shaq put up one of the most impressive stat ever in the finals. In the finals, Shaq had at least 25-10 and 52 FG% in every single game of his first 20 finals games. Shaq didn't average 25-10 and 52 FG% in that 20 game finals run, he put those numbers in every single finals game. He had 0 bad finals games until 2006. Here are his numbers in his first 20 finals games

34.2 PPG, 60.3 FG%, .601 TS%, 14.5 Reb, 4.0 AST, 2.8 BLK


In the finals during the 3peat years, he averaged 36-15-4, 3 blk, 60 FG%. He put 30-10 in 13 out of 15 3 peat finals games (including every game of Nets and Pacers series).


Shaq vs Elite centers

Shaq dominated every single great center he faced head to head. That includes Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson, Zo, Daughtery, and Ben Wallace.

Warning: long read in spoiler tags
Spoiler:
Expected numbers are by getting that players season averages in FG% and PPG (per 36 minutes). All numbers vs these centers in their prime.

vs. Ewing 93-98, Ewings numbers, 18 games:
Expected: 21.7 PPG, 49.4 FG%
Actual: 24.5 PPG, 45.6 FG%

Shaq's numbers vs. Ewing:
Expected: 25.0 PPG, 58.0 FG%
Actual: 25.6 PPG, 54.2 FG%

vs. Hakeem 93-99, 14 games:
Expected: 22.4 PPG, 51.6 FG%
Actual: 20.3 PPG, 45.3 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 23.7 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 20.1 PPG, 57.4 FG%

Playoffs:
vs. Hakeem, 8 games:
Expected: 22.3 PPG, 51.6 FG%
Actual: 21.9 PPG, 46.5 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 24.3 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 25.2 PPG, 55.6 FG%

vs. Robinson 93-01, 19 games:
Expected: 20.3 PPG, 50.8 FG%
Actual: 20.4 PPG, 47.4 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 25.5 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 24.2 PPG, 55.3 FG%

playoffs:
vs. Robinson, 8 games:
Expected: 18.8 PPG, 49.4 FG%
Actual: 17.1 PPG, 44.1 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 25.4 PPG, 57.4 FG%
Actual: 23.4 PPG, 51.2 FG%


vs. Alonzo Mourning, 93-02, 15 games:
Expected: 22.7 PPG, 52.5 FG%
Actual: 23.9 PPG, 44.3 FG%

Shaq's numbers:
Expected: 25.4 PPG, 57.8 FG%
Actual: 28.6 PPG, 56.2 FG%


Total numbers (per 36 minutes), 66 games:
Shaq: 24.7 PPG, 11.5 Reb, 55.6 FG%
Elite: 22.3 PPG, 10.1 Reb, 45.7 FG%

Expected vs. Actual numbers:
Elite guys:
Expected: 22.0 PPG, 50.8 FG%
Actual: 22.3 PPG, 18.6 FGA, 45.7 FG%
+0.3 PPG, -5.1 FG%

Here is how other good offensive big men did vs Shaq. Once again Shaq did a good job at limiting their FG%

Brad Daughtery vs Shaq:
Expected: 18.6 PPG, 53.1 FG%
Actual: 18.3 PPG, 41.5 FG%
Dropoff: -0.3 PPG, -11.5 FG%

Yao Ming vs Shaq:
Expected: 18.4 PPG, 52.3 FG%
Actual: 18.6 PPG, 47.3 FG%
Dropoff: +0.2 PPG, -5.1 FG%

Dwight Howard vs Shaq:
Expected: 18.3 PPG, 58.0 FG%
Actual: 16.5 PPG, 54.8 FG%
Dropoff: -1.8 PPG, -3.2 FG%


Head to Head, advantage in each category:

Shaq vs. Ewing 93-98, 18 games:
Pts advantage: Shaq 11-6
Reb: Shaq 11-7
AST: Shaq 8-6
blk: Shaq 10-5
FG%: Shaq 14-4
W-L: Shaq 11-7

Shaq vs. Hakeem 93-99, 14 games:
Pts: Shaq 7-6
Reb: Shaq 10-3
AST: Hakeem 7-4
blk: Hakeem 9-2
FG%: Shaq 13-1
W-L: Shaq 10-4

Shaq vs. Robinson 93-99, 12 games:
pts: Robinson 6-5
Reb: Shaq 8-4
AST: Robinson 6-3
blk: Shaq 5-2
FG%: Shaq 9-3
W-L: Shaq 6-6

Shaq vs. Mourning 93-00, 14 games:
pts: Shaq 11-3
reb: Shaq 11-3
AST: Shaq 13-0
blk: Shaq 9-2
FG%: Shaq 11-3
W-L: Shaq 11-3

Overall, 58 games:
pts: Shaq 34-22 (.607)
reb: Shaq 40-17 (.702)
AST: Shaq 28-19 (.596)
blk: Shaq 26-16 (.591)
FG%: Shaq 47-11 (.810)
Overall stats: Shaq 175-85 (.673)
W-L: Shaq 38-20 (.655)

Games:
<45 FG%: Elite 30, Shaq 11
>60 FG%: Shaq 21, Elite 6
30 pt games: Shaq 20, Elite 19



Defense

More on Shaq's Defense

Here are some facts from Hoopsstats.com. Here are the best opposing Center PPG and FG% defense since hoopsstats started collecting the stat (from 1998-2013)

Top opponent Center PPG defense from 98-13:
06 Heat: 12.8 PPG (Shaq)
04 Lakers: 12.9 PPG (Shaq)

06 Jazz: 12.9 PPG

Top opponent Center FG% defense from 98-13:
00 Lakers: 40.7 FG% (Shaq)
99 Spurs: 41.1 FG% (Duncan/Robinson)
99 Hawks: 41.9 FG% (Mutombo)
Shaq’s teams finished #1 in 00 and 05, #2 in 01, 02 and #3 in 98 and 06.


Spoiler:
From 93-96:
Here are how starting centers who played at least 30 MP in a game vs. each of these centers fared.

From 93-96:
Here are how starting centers who played at least 30 MP in a game vs. each of these centers fared.

Shaq: 18 PPG, .495 TS%, 10 reb, 1.03 AST-TOV

Ewing: 17.6 PPG, .541 TS%, 10.2 reb, 0.75 AST-TOV

Zo: 19.1 PPG, .564 TS%, 10.9 reb, 1.16 AST-TOV

Robinson: 18.1 PPG, .538 TS%, 10.2 reb, 0.93 AST-TOV

Hakeem: 15 PPG, .541 TS%, 11 reb, 0.89 AST-TOV

league average in this situation: 18.4 PPG, .564 TS% 10.5 reb, 0.87 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -0.4 PPG, -6.9 TS%, -0.5 Reb

Vs elite offensive centers from 93-96 (Shaq, Zo, Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson, and Daughtery):

Shaq: 25.1 PPG, .501 TS%, 11.7 reb, 1.10 AST-TOV (37.9% of his games were vs. them)

Ewing: 27.9 PPG, .579 TS%, 12.3 reb, 0.83 AST-TOV (32.4% of games)

Zo: 30.7 PPG, .593 TS%, 12.3 reb, 1.31 AST-TOV (31.1% of games)

Robinson: 24.8 PPG, .519 TS%, 11.1 reb, 0.93 AST-TOV (32.5% of games)

Hakeem: 20.5 PPG, .519 TS%, 12.4 reb, 0.94 AST-TOV (29.7% of games)

League average: 25.7 PPG, .574 TS%, 11.7 Reb, 0.93 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -0.6 PPG, -7.3 TS%

97-00 against starting centers with 30 MP:

Shaq: 14.6 PPG, .473 TS%, 9.8 reb, 0.99 AST-TOV

Zo: 13.3 PPG, .504 TS%, 9.5 reb, 0.77 AST-TOV

Robinson; 14.9 PPG, .511 TS%, 8.7 reb, 0.69 AST-TOV (from 98-00 for Robinson)

League average: 16.1 PPG, .549 TS%, 10.1 reb, 0.80 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -1.5 PPG, -7.6 TS%

Here is what they did vs. Shaq/Zo/Robinson/Hakeem/Ewing:

Shaq: 18.4 PPG, .449 TS%, 10.3 reb, 0.93 AST-TOV (26.7% of games)

Zo: 22.5 PPG, .508 TS%, 11.5 reb, 0.71 AST-TOV (20.5% of games)

Robinson: 23.5 PPG, .549 TS%, 10.2 reb, 0.44 AST-TOV (20.2% of games)

average: 23.8 PPG, .564 TS%, 11.5 reb, 0.75 AST-TOV

Dropoff vs Shaq: -5.4 PPG, -1.2 Reb, -11.2 TS% :o

Numbers from 01-04:
Shaq: 11.4 PPG, .510 TS%, 9.3 reb, 1.27 AST-TOV
avg: 14.3 PPG, .552 TS%, 9.8 reb, 0.92 AST-TOV
Dropoff: -2.9 PPG, -4.2 TS%, -0.5 reb, +0.35 AST-TOV


Playoff Defense:

Shaq has also played really good man defense in the playoffs. He has quite a few notable series where he limits the efficiency of his opponents:
Spoiler:
Hakeem vs Shaq, 95 Finals :
RS avg- 27.8 PPG, .563 TS%, 110 O rating
vs Shaq: 32.8 PPG, .514 TS%, 107 O rating
Diff: +5 PPG, -4.9 TS%, -3 O rating

Hakeem, 99 Playoffs:
RS avg- 18.9 PPG, .559 TS%, 23.1 PER, 105 O rating
Vs Shaq- 13.3 PPG, .461 TS%, 13.8 PER, 95 O rating
Diff: -5.6 PPG, -9.8 TS%, -9.3 PER, -10 O rating

Yao, 04 Playoffs:
RS avg: 17.5 PPG, .586 TS%, 21.9 PER, 110 O rating
Vs Shaq- 15 PPG, .497 TS%, 14.9 PER, 95 O rating
Diff: -2.5 PPG, -8.9 TS%, -7 PER, -15 O rating

Robinson, 99+01 Playoffs:
RS Avg- 15.1 PPG, .561 TS%
Vs Shaq- 13.8 PPG, .499 TS%
Diff: -1.3 PPG, -6.2 TS%

2000 playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis):
Divac: 11.2 PPG, 35.7 FG%, 423 TS% (12.3 PPG, 50.3 FG%, .552 TS%)
Longley: 5.2 PPG, 37.1 FG%, .330 TS% (6.3 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .512 TS%)
Sabonis: 8.3 PPG, 38.2 FG%, 22.2 3P%, .471 TS% (11.8 PPG, 50.5 FG%, 36.8 3P%, .568 TS%)
Smits: 10 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .495 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%)
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#3 » by JordansBulls » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:00 pm

Comes down to Magic, Hakeem, Shaq, Wilt, Bird to me. Let's compare records with HCA.

Code: Select all

 vs 50 win teams/non-50 win teams 
Wilt:     4-3 (57%)/   9-2 (82%)
Magic:    9-2 (82%)/   20-1 (95%)
Bird:     10-6 (63%)/  14-1 (93%)
Olajuwon: 4-0 (100%)/  5-2 (71%)
Shaq:     11-3 (79%)/  13-2 (87%)


Wilt 13-5 in series with HCA
Magic 29-3 in series with HCA
Bird 24-7 in series with HCA
Hakeem 9-2 in series with HCA
Shaq 24-5 in Series with HCA


Wilt with 4 league mvps, Magic with 3 league mvp's, Bird with 3 league mvp's, Shaq and Hakeem each with 1 league mvp.


1st Vote: Magic Johnson
2nd Vote: Larry Bird
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#4 » by RCM88x » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:13 pm

Bringing my same argument over from the last thread.

Vote: Magic Johnson

One of the most unique player in NBA history, Magic headlined one of the top offensive attacks in NBA history for nearly a decade.

WS/48: 8th
WS: 23rd
BPM: 6th
OBPM: 6th
VORP: 12th
ORTG: 3rd
PER: 14th
MVP Shares: 5th

While not providing insane longevity, his ability to lift a team from his rookie year allowed him to maintain elite level success for his entire career. Not to mention he was also an elite playoff performer.

PS WS/48: 6th
PS WS: 5th
PS BPM: 5th
PS OBPM: 6th
PS VORP: 4th
PS ORTG: 1st

His team lifting ability often maximized his teammates performance and provided a skill-set which was easy to build around and allowed the Lakers to maintain their spot at the top of the NBA for nearly all of Magic's career. Nearly every season of his career Magic was in the MVP race and leading a top team in the NBA.

Two possible arguments against:
1. Played in a weak western conference for nearly his entire career, and benefited from many sub par opponents in the playoffs. While often having the most talented and by far highest payroll team in the NBA. (Magic's salary alone was higher than most team's payroll in some seasons).
2. Played his first 10 seasons with Kareem, who I have ranked #2 on my list. I don't think he would have had near the career he did without Kareem, or if he was somewhere other than LA.

Despite this, I still feel comfortable ranking Magic as my #5 due to his insane offensive performance and team leading ability. I don't think any other player could have lifted that LA team higher than Magic did for nearly a decade.

2nd Vote: Wilt Chamberlain
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#5 » by ThaRegul8r » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:13 pm

trex_8063 wrote: I somewhat expect Wilt to run away with this one, but who knows? Maybe Magic, Shaq, or Hakeem will suddenly emerge as serious competition.


It would be odd for the Wilt people to suddenly give up just because their guy narrowly missed the last spot.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:15 pm

colts18 wrote:Vote #1: Shaq


Just a reminder to provide an alternate/2nd pick; as the last thread shows, it may well come down to those second picks.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#7 » by Joao Saraiva » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:17 pm

I'll vote for Wilt... 2nd vote for Shaq.

Will edit it later.

Time to start thinking where Oscar Robertson and Dr. J are on my list too.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:24 pm

ThaRegul8r wrote:
trex_8063 wrote: I somewhat expect Wilt to run away with this one, but who knows? Maybe Magic, Shaq, or Hakeem will suddenly emerge as serious competition.


It would be odd for the Wilt people to suddenly give up just because their guy narrowly missed the last spot.


It's not that I expect his support to disappear, but he'll need some new support to emerge or a ton of support NOT suddenly emerging for ONE other player. It's like what happened with Lebron/Russell in the #2/3 threads. The initial count on the #2 thread was:

Kareem - 14
Russell - 8
Lebron - 3
Duncan - 2

Seems like Russell's comfortably ahead of Lebron. But then the #3 thread count was:

Lebron - 15
Russell - 10
Duncan - 6
Hakeem - 1


And fwiw, the 2ndary votes for all the Duncan posters last thread were all over the map, not many for wilt (quite a few for Garnett, actually).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#9 » by wojoaderge » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:28 pm

1 - Wilt
2 - Bird


He started out as the most dominating offensive force the game has ever seen. Switching to a more all-around game, he scaled what I consider to be the all-time highest peak and won a championship along the way. Then he changed again to concentrate on defense and rebounding in order to win another ring. And in every incarnation he set new league records.


Magic was a below average defender at best, just like Bird
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#10 » by RCM88x » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:30 pm

trex_8063 wrote:OK, have it chaps.
I somewhat expect Wilt to run away with this one, but who knows? Maybe Magic, Shaq, or Hakeem will suddenly emerge as serious competition. Personally, I'm flip-flopping between Wilt and Shaq for this spot (though can see a nice case for Magic as well).

As a general question to all: how do you feel about Magic's defense?


Regarding Magic's defense, he obviously was probably a average defensive player at best for the majority of his carer. However his numbers don't suggest that he was a liability on that end at any point.

His DBPM and DRTG numbers are not spectacular but they definitely don't suggest he was at all bad. His first five seasons he posted a 2.5 DBPM, and 102 DRTG. All of which were above his teams average and well below the league average, for those seasons.

Later in his career he did slip a bit, but by that point his offensive numbers were so elite that only being average defensively wasn't a real detriment for the team. Unlike a smaller PG, he was able to get into passing lanes and not simply allow guys to shoot over him, plus he wasn't an instant miss-match against larger players in the post like average PGs were. He definitely didn't have great lateral quickness and foot speed defensively, but dribble drive penetration out of PnR wasn't really a big part of the game in that era and teams didn't really exploit those weaknesses in players.

I think today he'd have more difficulty, however I don't really think that portability across eras is important. So that's not something I'm going to penalize him for.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#11 » by Senior » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:45 pm

trex_8063 wrote:As a general question to all: how do you feel about Magic's defense?

I'd say he was passable. He definitely could be a capable defensive player (for example, he was fantastic in the 82 Lakers 1-3-1 half court trap that ruined Philly in the Finals), his size allowed him to switch onto larger players if needed, and he was an intelligent team defender. He didn't really have the lateral quickness/motor the best defenders did, but he was useful. Fantastic rebounder too. Tough length and strength which gave a lot of guys trouble.

It is true that Magic couldn't stay with your typical small PG, which is why Cooper and later Byron Scott took those guys. It hurt them a few times, but not consistently enough for it to matter in the big picture and you wouldn't have Magic on those guys to begin with. I'd give Bird the edge in defense, fwiw.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#12 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:09 pm

Shaq vs Wilt: While Wilt has his ATG 67 season, Shaq also has 00 which basically cancels it out. The rest of their career I think I slightly prefer Shaq with Wilt appearing to have up and down impact. I see Shaq as coming up stronger in big games. His Finals stats 00-02 are amazing. While Wilt has playing Russell to blame there are some shaky moments for sure where he stops producing such as in 68 and 69 playoffs which have the biggest impact on his legacy in my opinion.

Hakeem vs Garnett: Rating KG is tough because in the regular season I actually rate his offense as above Duncan and Hakeem, because playing more of a guard, PG style of game is more valuable on offense than post play. However Garnett's playoff scoring numbers are not amazing, and it may be because being so reliant on long 2 jumpshots may not translate to playoffs as much as it did in regular season. There's something to be said for the extra value of "If you guard me with single coverage I'm scoring on you every time" isolation skills in the postseason, it's also the knock on Robinson vs Hakeem despite the former probably being the better regular season player. As for defense whether Minnesota KG is a Duncan/Hakeem level is hard to measure as well, his Minnesota RAPM was worse than Duncan's in San Antonio along with his overall team results, but in Boston he had better at both than Duncan ever did. Was the difference strictly context related (not playing for a good defensive coach in Flip) or did he get better in Boston on defensive impact per minute because he didn't have to play 40mpg and carry the offense anymore? Noting that both Pierce and Allen got better on defense in Boston for the same reasons. I'm going to side with Hakeem anyways though because I prefer his offensive game which it comes to being championship level despite the regular season value of Garnett.

Magic vs Bird: Don't feel good about my choice, but I see Bird as having slightly higher peak because I believe in him defensively. This is a player who led the league in DWS multiple times, was top 10 in DBPM routinely and made 3 2nd team All-Defense. As someone who didn't watch him play I'm not prepared to say that's all a mistake cause it feels like he's too slow and white. In the case of Bird one thing I like about him is even if we don't have RAPM stats, he seems to have the same gene that stronger than boxscore RAPM perimeter players have. Like think about what Manu, Iguodala, Lowry, etc. have. It's that inner gene to be in the right place at the right time and to put your hands in the way of things etc.. It's not just about getting a steal or a charge, it's that the same things instincts or effort that leads to them getting the steal or the block, correlate to other positive plays that don't show up in any boxscore stat. I feel like Bird is one of the closest thing to a superstar boxscore players to having that Manu impact gene. Now of course since this is the top 10 players of all time it's not like he's the only one. The case against Bird is some of his playoff efficiency is shaky. Could you force him into jumpshots and make him less efficient? Magic's consistency efficiency wise is excellent, he is almost over .60 all the time in regular season and playoffs. As mentioned getting a lot of cupcakes in the Western Conference helped his playoff stats though. With the assists his offensive career is arguably better than Bird's. Although I would say he would be less portable. Overall I'm going to say Bird for now but it's close of course.

Hakeem/Shaq/Bird: Hakeem is clearly the worst on offense but an elite defender, the other 2 are ATG on offense. Like previous picks, since as skillsets I don't have a great feel for who is better here, I'm going to go with the one with the best intangibles in Bird as the most important difference between them.

Vote: Larry Bird

2nd place: Magic Johnson
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#13 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:19 pm

My choice right now is Wilt. He is so individually dominant, like prime Shaq but with superior rebounding and against consistently tougher competition at the center position that I think he has to be in the mix. I do agree that his strongest impact was defensively despite his unwillingness to chase shooters out on the floor; in his era with the extra need for rim protection and rebounding that might not be as bad a choice unless you are as quick as Russell. He has a knock against him for not being a winner but when NOT playing against Bill Russell (against, most impactful player in NBA history) his playoff series win % was just over 80%, slightly higher than Michael Jordan's career playoff series win % which is extraordinary. 70s Fan had an interesting post to close the #4 thread about how Wilt toned down his scoring (and upped his rebounding/defense) in the playoffs during his Warriors run and the motivations behind his ridiculous scoring feats.

Again, my focus is on impact in era modified by some degree of strength of era calculation. The 60s were a strong decade with lots of great talent concentrated on a relatively few teams. For that whole decade, the NBA was basically Russell v. Wilt, the greatest impact player of all time v. the greatest statistical player of all time, this despite the presence of great players like Oscar, West, Pettit, and Baylor. They were that dominant that anyone else even challenging them seriously was a shock.

Vote: Wilt (open to be convinced of George Mikan)

Runnerup: George Mikan -- dominated like a combination of Wilt and Russell, but in a much weaker era. Again, I am far from sure about this one and am willing to be moved off it by arguments for Shaq, Hakeem, Magic, Bird, Kobe, Oscar, West, or even Curry or Durant if someone can make the case strongly enough.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#14 » by colts18 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:37 pm

Putting Wilt in this spot is insane. There is little separation between him and David Robinson.

Team W-L:
Wilt: 672-373 (.643), 53 win pace
Robinson: 672-313 (.682), 56 win pace

Titles:
Wilt: 2
Robinson: 2

PER:
Wilt: 26.1
Robinson: 26.2

WS/48:
Wilt: .248
Robinson: .250

Playoff PER:
Wilt: 22.7
Robinson: 23.0

Playoff WS/48:
Wilt: .200
Robinson: .199

Tell me exactly why Wilt should be ahead of Robinson when they are similar players. Both played 14 seasons, amazing regular season players, disappointing in the postseasons, similar advanced stats. Robinson's teams have had more success despite less talent. Robinson has played with just 2 HOF players (Rodman and Duncan). Wilt played with a ton of them (West, Baylor, Rodgers, Thurmond, Arizin, Gola, Greer, Cunningham, Walker).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#15 » by ardee » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:43 pm

colts18 wrote:Putting Wilt in this spot is insane. There is little separation between him and David Robinson.

Team W-L:
Wilt: 672-373 (.643), 53 win pace
Robinson: 672-313 (.682), 56 win pace

Titles:
Wilt: 2
Robinson: 2

PER:
Wilt: 26.1
Robinson: 26.2

WS/48:
Wilt: .248
Robinson: .250

Playoff PER:
Wilt: 22.7
Robinson: 23.0

Playoff WS/48:
Wilt: .200
Robinson: .199

Tell me exactly why Wilt should be ahead of Robinson when they are similar players. Both played 14 seasons, amazing regular season players, disappointing in the postseasons, similar advanced stats. Robinson's teams have had more success despite less talent. Robinson has played with just 2 HOF players (Rodman and Duncan). Wilt played with a ton of them (West, Baylor, Rodgers, Thurmond, Arizin, Gola, Greer, Cunningham, Walker).


Terrible post. Wilt won two titles as the best player, Robinson won one title as Duncan's Pippen and a second a role player.

PER and WS/48 means jack, if that were the case we'd be ranking Chris Paul and Kevin Durant over Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.

Hakeem Olajuwon is also lower than Robinson in all those numbers, PER and WS/48, in RS and PS, and also has two titles? Is it insane to have him high too?

Hakeem:

PER: 23.6
WS/48: .177
Playoff PER: 25.7
Playoff WS/48: .189

There we go, lower than both in 3/4 categories but I'm sure you still rank him ahead of both. So those 2 states mean absolutely NOTHING.

Stop with your garbage anti-Wilt agenda.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#16 » by ardee » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:45 pm

Wilt.

Let's take a look at his year-by-year career.

Early days

1960: Rookie year. This year is villified by many for his efficiency, and admittedly it's not as pretty as it'll be later on, but consider this... He comes onto a team with a terribly inefficient Guy Rodgers, Tom Gola and an aging Paul Arizin as his only decent team-mates. There was NO spacing on that team, and the lane was still narrow. Wilt used to get SWARMED. The team was a -2.3 SRS team the year before, it was +2.8 when Wilt arrived. He turned the second worst team in the league to the second best. His defense was great that year, he was blocking 15 shots a game according to stories. Won the MVP over a prime Russell. Honestly, don't see how this isn't the second best rookie season ever after Kareem. Start of a legendary career.

1961: One of his weaker years. His efficiency from the field improves, gets to work on that fadeaway jumper (which people love to hate on, but it LED THE LEAGUE in FG%, so I guess it worked at the time). Arizin is even older, a rookie Al Attles doesn't help TOO much... But Wilt still gets them to the Playoffs, puts up a 37/23, but his supporting cast flops BADLY. Arizin, Gola and Rodgers combined to shoot 31% from the field. Warriors get swept by the Royals. Can't blame Wilt here, his team stunk it up.

1962: The first glimpse of prime Wilt. Sets all time scoring and rebounding records, absolutely carried a worsening cast. Rodgers was completely awful as an offensive player now, shot 35.6% from the field. All his help is Arizin and Gola. Still no real shooting on the team. Wilt is great on both ends of the court, somehow makes them the second best team in the league, and comes one Sam Jones jumper away from upsetting the greatest dynasty in sports. AGREED Russ did a good job on him in the EDF, but really, if that jumper had missed, Wilt would be hailed as the 33/25 hero who single-handedly defeated the ultimate dynasty. Since he lost, people vilify this year for his scoring dropping somewhat AGAINST THE GOAT DEFENDER. Not saying this year was perfect but it really doesn't get the credit it deserves.

1963: His team dropped off a good bit, but seriously... We're talking a team with no shooting, no defense, had Arizin retire, Gola miss 60 games, and Wilt still has the team make league average offense AND defense? With that kind of supporting cast, blame the guy who goes 45/25, leads the league in FG% and anchors the defense? Where is the logic here?

I'm going to go on a bit of a rant here but this is where standards are shifted for Wilt. In 2006 and 2007 people make all kinds of excuses for KG regarding his supporting cast and multiple problems he faced. Yet he NEVER had this kind of situation. This would be the equivalent of the 2015 Heat having Bosh leave, Wade miss 60 games, and then expect LeBron to match his previous season's results. Wilt was depending on Guy Rodgers, who was shooting 38.7% from the field, to be his second option. It is bull to blame Wilt for this season's results, given all he did. This was probably his second best pre-prime year. You can put Russell, Kareem, anyone on that team and the results do not get better. He had one of the worst supporting casts in history.

Prime Wilt

1964: GOAT-level year. This was possibly Wilt at his best. His scoring drops a little bit but the efficiency goes up, and he becomes the consensus second best defender after Russ. The Warriors were a -6 defensive team, the second best mark of the era by any team besides the Russell Celtics (and the same mark people were going gaga over for the Pacers earlier this season). Wilt also becomes a part-time high post facilitator, finishing 6th in the league in assists. He ups his efficiency in the Playoffs, and makes his first Finals, losing to the GOAT defensive team. This is legendary stuff. The load he carried on both ends was ridiculous. His defense this year consistently gets underestimated. He was like a combination of Russell and Shaq, this was domination on another level. 35 ppg on 55% FG in the Playoffs, playing Russell? In that era? My God.

1965: He drops off a bit due to the heart disease. Bad team results in the beginning of the year. If you want to hold that against him, fine. He gets traded to Philly because the SFW management is full of asses. Philly immediately improves, they go 11-3 in the first 14 games with Wilt. Then Greer, Costello and Jackson all get injured in the second half of the season. Wilt still drags them to .500 and then outplays Russ in the EDF, losing because HAVLICEK STOLE THE BALL. This is the second time that one play has decided whether or not Wilt beats Russell.

1966: Start of peak Wilt. He takes his efficiency to a new level... 54% from the field on 25 FGA/game. Continues helping out with playmaking from the high post. He is now the undoubted best player in the league, taking the conch from Russell. The Sixers go 55-25. Wilt has a good supporting cast now but it's not THAT good. Greer was great, the perfect second option for Wilt. Walker was a nice do-it-all guy, but neither of them were particularly efficient. Billy C was too young to be a huge factor, Dolph Schayes refused to give Jackson the mpg he needed to make an impact, and Wali Jones was basically a better defensive version of Guy Rodgers, but even more inefficient. The results were still great though, given what he had. The first of 3 straight MVPs. 30/30 in the Playoffs, and only loses to Boston because his two best team-mates, Greer and Walker, screw up badly, shooting 36% from the floor combined. Shades of what happened with Gola and Arizin in '61. Keep this in mind when talking about his supporting cast this year. Again, GOAT level stuff.

1967: The greatest season anyone has ever played, at the very least in the top 3 with Jordan and Shaq. Sets a FG% record, becomes the first real point-center, is the keynote of Hannum's percusor to the triangle offense, and leads the Sixers to a record 68-13. I don't know how much I need to say about this year, but I'll let you guys take a look at his game-log from the Playoffs:

1967 EDSF vs. Royals

G1 - 41 points, 23 rebounds, 5 assists, 63% FG
G2 - 37 points, 27 rebounds, 11 assists, 67% FG
G3 - 16 points, 30 rebounds, 19 assists, 62% FG
G4 - 18 points, 27 rebounds, 9 assists, 50% FG

Series Average: 28.0 ppg, 26.8 rpg, 11 apg, 61% FG
Oscar Robertson: 24.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 11.3 apg, 51.6% FG

He had as many assists as Oscar and killed him everywhere else!

1967 EDF vs. Celtics

G1 - 24 points, 32 rebounds, 12 assists, 12 blocks, 69% FG
G2 - 15 points, 29 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 blocks, 45% FG
G3 - 20 points, 41 rebounds, 9 assists, 5 blocks, 57% FG
G4 - 20 points, 22 rebounds, 10 assists, at least 3 blocks, 44% FG
G5 - 29 points, 36 rebounds, 13 assists, 7 blocks, 63% FG

Series Average: 21.6 ppg, 32.0 rpg, 10.0 apg, 6+ bpg, 56% FG
Bill Russell: 11.4 ppg, 23.4 rpg, 6.0 apg, 36% FG

1967 NBA Finals vs. Warriors

G1 - 16 points, 33 rebounds, 10 assists, 75% FG (including a game-saving block on Nate)
G2 - 10 points, 38 rebounds (26 in 1st half), 10 assists, 10 blocks, 40% FG
G3 - 26 points, 26 rebounds, 5 assists, 52% FG
G4 - 10 points, 27 rebounds, 8 assists, 11 blocks, 50% FG
G5 - 20 points, 24 rebounds, 4 assists, 60% FG
G6 - 24 points, 23 rebounds, 4 assists, 62% FG

Series Average: 17.6 ppg, 28.5 rpg, 6.8 apg, 56% FG
Nate Thurmond: 14.1 ppg, 26.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 34% FG



:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:

That year, Wilt was fifth in scoring, first in rebounds, third in assists, and first in FG%. He was probably first or second in blocks too. How many players can achieve that level of statistical domination on an ELITE team?

He would get the rebound, either throw an outlet or let Greer bring it up before he got the entry pass at the high post again. Facing the basket, he then hit cutters, used a handoff to a guard to set a screen or either posted up to devastating effect (68% from the field!!!). Wilt was ungodly that year, there has never been anyone as good at basketball as Wilt was in 1967.

1968: Pretty much more of the same. His efficiency from the field dropped to "only" 60%, but for the first time, toppled Russell's Celtics for the best defense in the league.

This was the only time in the 60s Russ didn't anchor the league's best defense. So Wilt was the only guy to beat Russell in the Playoffs, as well as the only guy to have a better defense than him.

In the Playoffs, he dragged an injury ridden team past the Knicks, leading both teams in every major statistical category. He lost a game 7 to Boston by 4 points, in a game where Hannum had his only real failing as a coach. He simply couldn't devise a game-plan to get the ball to Wilt with Embry and Russell swarming him. The series was still so close despite the litany of injuries the Sixers had. Billy C was out of the series, Wilt had a bad calf problem, practically the whole starting 5 was hobbled.

Wilt has an unfair reputation as a 'big-game choker'. Take a look here at his performance in swing games, elimination games and game 7s through the years:

Wilt in do or die games...

1960 G3 vs. Nationals: 53 points, ? rebounds (playoff record at the time for pts)
1962 G5 vs. Nationals: 56 pts, 35 rebs (breaks his own playoff record)
1962 G7 vs Celtics : 22 pts, 21 rebs (7/14 shooting - Warriors were on the verge of pulling off this upset but Sam James hit a clutch shot. Wilt was undoubtedly fronted by the entire Celtics frontline, as was the case for most of his games vs. Celtics in mid-60s, a defensive strategy which would have been illegal in 80s/90s mind you)
1964 G7 vs. Hawks: 39 pts, 26 rebs, 12 blocks (many of which led to 14-0 run…and scored 50 pts a couple of days earlier in the pivotal game 5)
1965 G7 vs. Celtics: 30 pts, 32 rebs (famous game where Havlichek stole the ball, had 30/26 to save team from elimination the game before)
1968 G7 vs Celtics: 14 pts, 34 rebs, (wilt’s role different, but he definitely could have stepped up offensively in the second half)
1969 G7 vs. Celtics: 18 pts, 27 rebs (injured in final 6 minutes of game, attempted to come back, coach held him back...and Lakers end up losing close game on a lucky shot by Don Nelson)
1970 G7 vs. Suns: 30 pts, 27 rebs, 11 blocks (Lakers come back from down 3-1, and Wilt was 34 at the time)
1970 G7 vs. Knicks: 21 pts, 24 rebs (45 pts 27 rebs in the game before this to save Lakers from elimination, and AGAIN, he is 34 years old)


He has the highest FG% in game 7s of anyone: .626. Second highest rebounding rate of anyone (besides Russ) in game 7s. So the myth that Wilt is a big-game player really needs to be gotten rid of.


Needless to say.

Vote: Wilt Chamberlain

2nd preference: Magic Johnson
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#17 » by colts18 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:49 pm

ardee wrote:
colts18 wrote:Putting Wilt in this spot is insane. There is little separation between him and David Robinson.

Team W-L:
Wilt: 672-373 (.643), 53 win pace
Robinson: 672-313 (.682), 56 win pace

Titles:
Wilt: 2
Robinson: 2

PER:
Wilt: 26.1
Robinson: 26.2

WS/48:
Wilt: .248
Robinson: .250

Playoff PER:
Wilt: 22.7
Robinson: 23.0

Playoff WS/48:
Wilt: .200
Robinson: .199

Tell me exactly why Wilt should be ahead of Robinson when they are similar players. Both played 14 seasons, amazing regular season players, disappointing in the postseasons, similar advanced stats. Robinson's teams have had more success despite less talent. Robinson has played with just 2 HOF players (Rodman and Duncan). Wilt played with a ton of them (West, Baylor, Rodgers, Thurmond, Arizin, Gola, Greer, Cunningham, Walker).


Terrible post. Wilt won two titles as the best player, Robinson won one title as Duncan's Pippen and a second a role player.

PER and WS/48 means jack, if that were the case we'd be ranking Chris Paul and Kevin Durant over Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.

Hakeem Olajuwon is also lower than Robinson in all those numbers, PER and WS/48, in RS and PS, and also has two titles? Is it insane to have him high too?

Stop with your garbage anti-Wilt agenda.

If Robinson had Wilt's loaded teams, he would have a ton of titles as the man too. Wilt had HOF's at every point in his career. Couldn't win **** with Rodgers, Gola, and Arizin. He only twice with absurdly loaded Lakers and Sixers team. Robinson's teams always collapsed when he didn't play. When Wilt didn't play, his teams didn't lose as much.

Why did Wilt choke with great teams from 68-71?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#18 » by ardee » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:56 pm

colts18 wrote:
ardee wrote:
colts18 wrote:Putting Wilt in this spot is insane. There is little separation between him and David Robinson.

Team W-L:
Wilt: 672-373 (.643), 53 win pace
Robinson: 672-313 (.682), 56 win pace

Titles:
Wilt: 2
Robinson: 2

PER:
Wilt: 26.1
Robinson: 26.2

WS/48:
Wilt: .248
Robinson: .250

Playoff PER:
Wilt: 22.7
Robinson: 23.0

Playoff WS/48:
Wilt: .200
Robinson: .199

Tell me exactly why Wilt should be ahead of Robinson when they are similar players. Both played 14 seasons, amazing regular season players, disappointing in the postseasons, similar advanced stats. Robinson's teams have had more success despite less talent. Robinson has played with just 2 HOF players (Rodman and Duncan). Wilt played with a ton of them (West, Baylor, Rodgers, Thurmond, Arizin, Gola, Greer, Cunningham, Walker).


Terrible post. Wilt won two titles as the best player, Robinson won one title as Duncan's Pippen and a second a role player.

PER and WS/48 means jack, if that were the case we'd be ranking Chris Paul and Kevin Durant over Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.

Hakeem Olajuwon is also lower than Robinson in all those numbers, PER and WS/48, in RS and PS, and also has two titles? Is it insane to have him high too?

Stop with your garbage anti-Wilt agenda.

If Robinson had Wilt's loaded teams, he would have a ton of titles as the man too. Wilt had HOF's at every point in his career. Couldn't win **** with Rodgers, Gola, and Arizin. He only twice with absurdly loaded Lakers and Sixers team. Robinson's teams always collapsed when he didn't play. When Wilt didn't play, his teams didn't lose as much.

Why did Wilt choke with great teams from 68-71?


First of all, ADDRESS WHAT I POSTED ABOVE IF I YOU WANT TO HAVE A CONVERSATION.

Loaded teams?

You're being so intellectually dishonest here it's embarassing. Being HOF in the 60s means NOTHING. With 8 teams in the league, there were going to be multiple All Stars and HOFers on every team. Rodgers was a 37% career shooter at PG. Arizin and Gola were Wilt's only 2 good teammates on the Warriors and he only played with Arizin for 3 years, because when Wilt was drafted he was already in his 30s.

In 1960 and 1962 they took the greatest dynasty of all time to 6 (as a rookie) and 7 games respectively, coming within a Sam Jones buzzer beater. In 1961, Wilt averaged 37-23, but those 3 HOFers you mentioned above? 31% combined from the field so they lost in the first round.

Wilt never choked. He was one of the best big game performers of all time. Whenever his teams lost, he killed it.

1960 G3 vs. Nationals: 53 points, ? rebounds (playoff record at the time for pts)
1962 G5 vs. Nationals: 56 pts, 35 rebs (breaks his own playoff record)
1962 G7 vs Celtics : 22 pts, 21 rebs (7/14 shooting - Warriors were on the verge of pulling off this upset but Sam James hit a clutch shot. Wilt was undoubtedly fronted by the entire Celtics frontline, as was the case for most of his games vs. Celtics in mid-60s, a defensive strategy which would have been illegal in 80s/90s mind you)
1964 G7 vs. Hawks: 39 pts, 26 rebs, 12 blocks (many of which led to 14-0 run…and scored 50 pts a couple of days earlier in the pivotal game 5)
1965 G7 vs. Celtics: 30 pts, 32 rebs (famous game where Havlichek stole the ball, had 30/26 to save team from elimination the game before)
1968 G7 vs Celtics: 14 pts, 34 rebs, (wilt’s role different, but he definitely could have stepped up offensively in the second half)
1969 G7 vs. Celtics: 18 pts, 27 rebs (injured in final 6 minutes of game, attempted to come back, coach held him back...and Lakers end up losing close game on a lucky shot by Don Nelson)
1970 G7 vs. Suns: 30 pts, 27 rebs, 11 blocks (Lakers come back from down 3-1, and Wilt was 34 at the time)
1970 G7 vs. Knicks: 21 pts, 24 rebs (45 pts 27 rebs in the game before this to save Lakers from elimination, and AGAIN, he is 34 years old)


So stop with your nonsense narrative that has nothing rooted in reality. If you actually read the huge post I made, you'd know none of what you've said is true. Wilt is the kind of player Robinson dreamed to be.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#19 » by Outside » Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:07 pm

trex_8063 wrote:As a general question to all: how do you feel about Magic's defense?


Advantages:

-- Excellent bball IQ. which translated into very good help/team defense
-- Length, which he used to his advantage in both individual and help/team defense
-- Excellent rebounder, and you need rebounds to finish off defensive possessions
-- Agility in the first half of his career

Disadvantages:

-- Not the most motivated defender; relied on teammates to have his back so he could concentrate on offense
-- Difficulty staying with smaller guards (in other words, all other guards)
-- As he bulked up in later years, lost quickness and became a true liability defensively
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #6 

Post#20 » by Outside » Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:10 pm

ThaRegul8r wrote:
trex_8063 wrote: I somewhat expect Wilt to run away with this one, but who knows? Maybe Magic, Shaq, or Hakeem will suddenly emerge as serious competition.


It would be odd for the Wilt people to suddenly give up just because their guy narrowly missed the last spot.

I think it's more that there is a significant group that really dislike Wilt and may coalesce around an alternate candidate.
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