Much of last time is the same - some tweaks have been made to acknowledge some good insights from TRex & address some of the Durant criticism from last time. The only thing I'm going to preface with is regarding Pettit and it's based on some comments I saw from the Pettit supporters that I felt needed addressed:
Through 4 games - when Russell sprained his ankle in the '58 Finals, the series against Pettit's Hawks was tied. Boston had a 7.5 per game point differential. Obviously anything could happen, but Pettit didn't REALLY beat Russell; this is a distinction I want to make sure people are aware of vs. just seeing Pettit got a ring against the '58 Celtics. If it doesn't impact your vote, I can respect that.
My Top 2 Point Guards left: Steph/Payton
My Top 2 wing/forwards left: Durant/Pettit
My Top 2 Centers left: Ewing/Mikan full disclosure - I grew up a Knicks fan.
Kevin Durant is great. He really is. For a second, I was worried he would be the Drexler to Lebron. I'm glad he's became so much more (and that's not an insult to Drexler). I loved that he figured out in the Finals that he is the best center in the league because he is the evolution of where that position is going. I loved that he really took his defensive game to another level this year. I loved that he went right at Lebron in the Finals. I sincerely believe he has the potential to become a Top 10 GOAT player and pass Bird. If he doesn't get injured those two years (I really believe OKC wins the '13 title if he doesn't get hurt), the narrative changes and he's in the Top 20. He's still "only" 44th in Win Shares, "only" 33rd in VORP, I think he will get to where he is going. He's a situation where the RPAM stats are wrong. Some things that highlight his impact:
- > 60% TS every year since '12 on >25 ppg every year during that time span. That's amazing efficiency - better than Dirk - who got all kinds of love earlier.
- A strong playmaker on top of his deadly efficiency - hovering at or around 5 apg since '13; that's why his TOV rate hovers around 12.
- OKC falls from 2nd in offensive efficiency to 16th once he departs
- GS improves from -2.6 to -4.8 on Defense this year. I know some are saying his D Impact is questionable and his career advanced stats are middling but I believe that's due to the context of the team; the improvement when he arrived in GS is material.
-His '13/'14/'16 playoffs have been criticized as "under-performing". In '13, he got 31-9-6, '14 he got 30-9-4 & '16 he got 28-7-3. He scored pretty efficiently in all 3 of those playoffs with the potential exception of '16 where he only shot 54% TS.
Patrick Ewing anchored a defense that was best in the league for 3 straight years and Top 4 for nearly a decade. He forced MJ into a Game 7, and had MJ down 2-0 in '93. Everyone holds the '94 Finals over his head - what is forgotten is that he set the Finals blocks record in that series. He never won the big one and has some memorable defeats - but even in defeat he was a monster ('95 Gm 7 vs Indy, '97 Gm 7 vs. Miami, '92/'93 series vs. Chicago). He was what got them over the hump ('90 vs. Boston, '92 vs. Detroit) and he never played with another player in their prime who will sniff this list. It's unfortunate that he never quite got a chip - his offensive deficiencies had a way of showing up at the worst times.
Steph: Right with Durant, he has the potential to be an all time Top 10 player. Every metric that you'd want is there - he's also the only multiple time MVP with a title against quality* (see my Pettit post for the disclaimer) competition left. The only reason he's not higher is the years aren't there - yet.
Mikan: I need to reconcile the fact that at peak, for his era his impact is as great as anyone's - but the era he played in would probably get taken to the cleaners by the ACC - even after nutrition/medical benefits are applied. I have him slotted as my next Center to get my support after Ewing is in.
Point Guards: I need to do more work here; 1 or 2 more good years from Steph & he probably passes Pettit - but I'm not ready to put him in over Ewing - yet - nor do I feel that way about any of the other point guards. More to come.
Pettit: Very impressive for his era and for his era, I think you can definitely argue he did more than Durant. His era was just a lot weaker than Durant's. His prime held up well - no "hanging on" years - 10 really good seasons. Held his own against Baylor/West just fine, worked with Hagan to knock off Russell's Celtics (albeit Russell only played 4 games) and was the best player in that series - dropped 50 in the final game. He held up very well even after Chamberlain & Russell joined the league & the league became progressively more athletic. He's a little bit lucky to get his chip - but that's part of how things go - ultimately he did get the chip and he DID anchor the league's best offense until the Big O & West came around. He'd be my 2nd choice here except for 1) the whole 50's thing & 2) I don't put as much stock in titles won from that era unless you beat one of Pettit, Russell, Chamberlain, West/Baylor, Robertson to do so. And he didn't actually BEAT Russell - that series was tied - but Boston had a massive point differential edge and nearly won Games 5 & 6 which lead me to believe that the Celtics would've won. Trex did a great post about the history of the early part of the league which makes me think that the quality of the league in '58 was materially better than what Mikan faced - but the base of Mikan's league was so poor I consider it to be worse than the best college conferences. By the time Pettit got his chip, it's evolved past that - but still very weak overall. I'll be voting for him before Mikan because of how he held up in a league that had those elite players in it - whereas I don't even think Mikan does that well if he is transported just 10 years ahead.
More to come on why I have GP this high as we get closer to the point where he's actually on my ballot; right now there's not a need to write about it.
1st choice: Kevin Durant
Alternate Selection: Patrick Ewing
, I'm used to him being off the board by now.