RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24

Pablo Novi
Senior
Posts: 683
And1: 233
Joined: Dec 11, 2015
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Contact:
   

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#81 » by Pablo Novi » Sun Aug 6, 2017 5:41 am

trex_8063 wrote:
Pablo Novi wrote:
A thought for some time in the future? Someone else mentioned this too - perhaps our voting system should have a 3rd-place vote - so there'd be less "ghost" votes - and the results MIGHT even better reflect people's choices than our already-good current system?


Something like that may be done in future projects, but not in this one. For one, I'm not inclined to totally change the voting protocol right in the middle of the project (sort of messes with internal consistency, you know?). Secondly, as was noted in discussion in the sign-up thread, the point-based ballot system (especially with 3+ ballots per voter) is the system that allows the MOST potential for voters to intentionally manipulate the vote AGAINST players they don't want to get in......it's why we decided against it this time around.

To all you say - I understand (and understood) your / this project's reasoning - and, am quite impressed with it.
I was just making a suggestion for future reference - it SEEMS to me it might be possible to both "adjust" the system a bit while still avoiding the intentional-manipulation tactics.
euroleague
General Manager
Posts: 8,444
And1: 1,869
Joined: Mar 26, 2014
 

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#82 » by euroleague » Sun Aug 6, 2017 6:16 am

twolves97 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
twolves97 wrote:Also Mikan should NOT go here or anywhere in the 20s. Era usually isn't a huge deal for me but the weakness of Mikan's era really shouldn't be overlooked. I just don't think he was a good basketball player. I don't think he could play D-1 basketball today. I think I'm probably a better player than he was and my best scholarship offer was from Chicago State (I didn't go there I go to Duke University go Blue Devils).

Let’s talk skills….
You said you think you’re better, and from a modern standard of skillset, you’re likely right. But I’ll ask you: how do you think you came to be better?

Did you or did you not have exposure to modern stars (via TV, NBA TV, YouTube, etc) growing up?
Did you or did you not try to ape what those stars were doing as you were developing your game (shot mechanics, specific moves, etc)?
Were all of your peer doing the same thing, such that you had that kind of constant feedback loop, and all challenging and pushing each other in developing these aped skills?
Did you or did you not learn drills from coaches or peers to practice skills which either were not allowed or otherwise had not yet even been pioneered in Mikan’s day?

I’ve not seen you play, but I’m willing to bet you’re not an extreme outlier---in this era----in your basketball skills. There are likely thousands (or perhaps tens of thousands) of other kids and young men around the globe who are as good or better than you and basically every single basketball skill. Otherwise (and I do NOT mean this as an insult, but rather just pointing out the factoid that you shared as a means of illustrating the point) you’d have received a scholarship from something bigger Chicago State.
So, given the skills you possess are so accessible to thousands of young players today, I think it’s pure generational arrogance and vanity to assume a prior generation couldn’t also find these skills just as accessible if they were afforded all the same influences you were…..particularly one who seemed as far ahead of the basketball curve as Mikan appeared to be at the time.

And just as a suggestion that it wasn’t ONLY his size that enabled him to dominate, just going to list a few other similar sized chaps from the same era, and what kind of players they were:

Your completely right. I agree with everything you said here and I have no doubt give modern resources he would be a much better player than I am and he could probably make a D-1 roster. However, I have no doubt in my mind that Bill Russell is so much better than me at basketball it's not even comparable. I'm 100% sure that Don Nelson is way better at basketball than I am and he was a role player. Same with Pettit(though he obviously wasn't a role player). But I watch Milan play and I can't help but think I'm better than that guy. And the fact that I can even think that and not be totally wrong is my issue with having him so high. Know if I had been grown up when he did and had to learn basketball in 40s-50s like he did I know I would be worse than him. I just don't think Mikan was very good at basketball. Maybe it's some confirmation bias as I have never thought of Mikan as an All-time great. That's how I feel and I don't think I'm way off base either. Heck, you even agreed that you think in the modern sense I am a better basketball player. I struggle with that immensely when talking about putting him over guys like Curry, Nash, Ewing and Durant.


Russell may be much better than Mikan, but Mikan was much bigger and stronger.

Also, in the same respect, players like Anthony Davis and Giannis look at Bill Russell/Wilt and think "I'm way better than this guy. Why is he ranked so high?" Comparing across eras while using yourself as a benchmark seems rather arbitrary.

Obviously Russell watched Mikan, and learned about how to play defense from him. The comparison doesn't seem valid. Mikan played in 1947 and was MVP in 1948, Russell was 13/14 years old.
dhsilv2
RealGM
Posts: 42,786
And1: 22,514
Joined: Oct 04, 2015

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#83 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 2:28 pm

drza wrote:
"With Ewing, if I'm convinced that he's near the peak of his defensive powers here, he should be reasonably in the +5 to +6 range on defense (using Doc MJ's normalized RAPM scale as a base; for reference Duncan (+6.78), Robinson post '97 (+6.78), Ben Wallace (+6.8) and Zo Mouning post 97 (~+7) all peaked on defense around +7 on that scale, so peak Ewing should at least be within shouting distance of that). Meanwhile, high-volume/efficiency scoring bigs that aren't big assist men (using Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire as estimate models) tended to peak around + 3 to +4. Thus, I think +8 to +9 is a reasonable estimate for peak Ewing on this scale."


That 90 Knicks team was 13th out of 27 teams in defensive rating and he had a health Charles Oakley (well though of defender) next to him. They were roughly the same the year prior and the year after.

A +5 DRAPM seems extremely generous, I'd assume all the comps listed here were on a top level defense. If you were talking about one of the years the knicks were a top defense, that might seem more reasonable.
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,852
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#84 » by drza » Sun Aug 6, 2017 2:53 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
drza wrote:
"With Ewing, if I'm convinced that he's near the peak of his defensive powers here, he should be reasonably in the +5 to +6 range on defense (using Doc MJ's normalized RAPM scale as a base; for reference Duncan (+6.78), Robinson post '97 (+6.78), Ben Wallace (+6.8) and Zo Mouning post 97 (~+7) all peaked on defense around +7 on that scale, so peak Ewing should at least be within shouting distance of that). Meanwhile, high-volume/efficiency scoring bigs that aren't big assist men (using Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire as estimate models) tended to peak around + 3 to +4. Thus, I think +8 to +9 is a reasonable estimate for peak Ewing on this scale."


That 90 Knicks team was 13th out of 27 teams in defensive rating and he had a health Charles Oakley (well though of defender) next to him. They were roughly the same the year prior and the year after.

A +5 DRAPM seems extremely generous, I'd assume all the comps listed here were on a top level defense. If you were talking about one of the years the knicks were a top defense, that might seem more reasonable.


That's a fair area to examine further, but I'm not sure that +5 on defense is quite as generous as you're making it out to be. On that scale, a +5 in normalized DRAPM would be below the 3-year peaks (1998 - 2012) of Bo Outlaw (+5.9), Rasheed Wallace (+5.7), or Andrew Bogut (+5.7). It's right around what one would expect from the top three seasons of Shane Battier (+5.1). These are all great defensive players, but not dominant in the way that some of the other names I mentioned peaking around +7 on defense may have been.

Also, we actually have DRAPM scores for late-career Ewing in 98 - 00 when he was nearing the end. And in those seasons he was consistently around +5 in normalized DRAPM. In '90, much closer to his athletic peak, I would think an estimate of +5 would have been reasonably conservative.

Actually, I'd think the more controversial impact estimate that I gave for Ewing would be his offense. I estimated in the +3 to +4 range, based on the best seasons that we saw from Amare (+4.1, +3.8) and Howard (+3.5,+3.5). Late 90s Zo also came out in that range. However, most bigs with normalized ORAPM scores that high or higher were plus passers, which Ewing wasn't. None of Amare, Howard or Zo were either, so I think the estimate for Ewing is defendable, but it is probably not as well supported IMO as the defensive impact estimate.
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
mischievous
General Manager
Posts: 7,675
And1: 3,482
Joined: Apr 18, 2015

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#85 » by mischievous » Sun Aug 6, 2017 3:00 pm

Vote: Bob Pettit. Can't see any reason why Mikan should be above Pettit, Pettit seemed to play at a similar statistical level but just did it for longer. I have to be at least slightly more impressed with the competition at which Petitt accomplished what he did.

Alt vote: Hondo?
Pablo Novi
Senior
Posts: 683
And1: 233
Joined: Dec 11, 2015
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Contact:
   

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#86 » by Pablo Novi » Sun Aug 6, 2017 4:18 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
twolves97 wrote:Also Mikan should NOT go here or anywhere in the 20s. Era usually isn't a huge deal for me but the weakness of Mikan's era really shouldn't be overlooked. I just don't think he was a good basketball player. I don't think he could play D-1 basketball today. I think I'm probably a better player than he was and my best scholarship offer was from Chicago State (I didn't go there I go to Duke University go Blue Devils).


Although I’m not voting for Mikan yet, I’m disappointed in the sentiment here, especially the bolded segment, which imo denotes skewed or incomplete consideration of all factors.

I realize there’s a range of possibilities as far as how good Mikan could be in a modern context, but I’m repeatedly upset by how casually leap to the absolute lowest potential on the spectrum, as you have done here.

I mean let’s look at what we have with Mikan, starting with the physical….


Size
The WCA archive lists Mikan as 6’9” without shoes (same height as Dwight Howard---who is listed at 6’11”), though I could swear I remember reading somewhere that Mikan measured 6’9.5” without shoes, but I can’t remember the source. Other sources…...
There’s this famous SI cover where [old man, possibly marginally shrunk] Mikan looks only about 3” shorter than Kareem (who’s listed at 7’2”).
And there’s this (post #13) photo in which he looks not even 2” shorter than Wilt (who was listed as 7’1”, and iirc was known to be 7’0.5” without shoes).

In short, Mikan would easily be listed 6’11” in today’s league; slim chance he might even be listed 7’0” (especially if we believe things like nutrition of the time and more exposure to second-hand smoke perhaps marginally stunted his growth in his own time).

His weight during his playing career in the BAA/NBA ranged between ~245-260 lbs (249 lbs specifically noted at training camp prior to ‘54 season).
Bear in mind this is during an era BEFORE weight training was facilitated or encouraged (in fact, it was even active DIScouraged on the assumption that extra muscle mass would both effect one’s shot and interfere with endurance). And that’s not like fat weight, as you can see from any number of photos you can find on a Google search (I'd post some I've on file, but Photobucket has changed their 3rd party hosting recently, which sucks).

Suffice to say that was his reasonably lean body weight, just on the basis of his natural physique, which doesn’t look too shabby in those photos (broad shouldered, lean but wiry arms, strong-looking legs).


Other Athletic Attributes
Combine those above specs with what we see just in the first minute or so of this scouting film by WCA:


Is he any slower or less fleet of foot than players like Brook or Robin Lopez, Joakim Noah, Kendrick Perkins, or the final 6-8 seasons of Tim Duncan? I don’t think so.

He appears substantially MORE athletic [faster, less gravity-bound] than someone like Bill Laimbeer, who was listed at 6’11”, but I saw Laimbeer in person recently at the airport, and I’ll eat my hat if he was taller than 6’9” or maybe 6’9.5” (wearing thin-soled dress-casual loafers); he’s not THAT old, I doubt he could have shrunk much. I saw him next to Herb Williams (who was listed 6’10” in his career), and Herb looked exactly the same height or possibly even ~0.5” taller.
And Laimbeer had a nearly 14-year career (4-time All-Star) in the semi-recent era, because he was smart, tough and physical, and could shoot.


In summary, there doesn’t appear to be any overt physical limitation which would prevent him from being capable of a successful NBA career in a more modern context.


Let’s talk skills….
You said you think you’re better, and from a modern standard of skillset, you’re likely right. But I’ll ask you: how do you think you came to be better?

Did you or did you not have exposure to modern stars (via TV, NBA TV, YouTube, etc) growing up?
Did you or did you not try to ape what those stars were doing as you were developing your game (shot mechanics, specific moves, etc)?
Were all of your peer doing the same thing, such that you had that kind of constant feedback loop, and all challenging and pushing each other in developing these aped skills?
Did you or did you not learn drills from coaches or peers to practice skills which either were not allowed or otherwise had not yet even been pioneered in Mikan’s day?

I’ve not seen you play, but I’m willing to bet you’re not an extreme outlier---in this era----in your basketball skills. There are likely thousands (or perhaps tens of thousands) of other kids and young men around the globe who are as good or better than you and basically every single basketball skill. Otherwise (and I do NOT mean this as an insult, but rather just pointing out the factoid that you shared as a means of illustrating the point) you’d have received a scholarship from something bigger Chicago State.
So, given the skills you possess are so accessible to thousands of young players today, I think it’s pure generational arrogance and vanity to assume a prior generation couldn’t also find these skills just as accessible if they were afforded all the same influences you were…..particularly one who seemed as far ahead of the basketball curve as Mikan appeared to be at the time.

And just as a suggestion that it wasn’t ONLY his size that enabled him to dominate, just going to list a few other similar sized chaps from the same era, and what kind of players they were:

George Mikan (‘49-’54, ‘56)
23.1 ppg/13.4 rpg/2.8 apg @ 48.3% TS
DRtg available beginning in ‘51; from ‘51 to ‘54 he anchored three #1 defenses and one #2 defense (as good as -7.6 rDRTG---in the running for most dominant ever, proportionally; in the two years prior to DRTG, Lakers were #1 and #2 respectively in pts/allowed).

Ed Mikan (‘49-’54) 6’8”, 230 lbs
6.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.9 apg @ 38.3% TS

Robert Hahn (played 10 games in ‘50) 6’10”, 240 lbs
1.0 ppg, 0.1 apg @ 31.1% TS

Arnie Risen (‘49-’58) 6’9”, 200 lbs
12.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 1.7 apg @ 45.6% TS
4x All-Star

Mike Novak (‘49-’50, ‘54; though came into league at age 33) 6’9”, 219 lbs
3.4 ppg, 1.4 apg @ 35.3% TS

Bill Henry (‘49-’50) 6’9”, 215 lbs
6.5 ppg, 1.1 apg @ 41.2% TS

John Mahnken (‘47-’53) 6’8”, 220 lbs
5.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.3 apg @ 30.9% TS

Dolph Schayes (‘50-’64) **6’8”, 220 lbs (this is odd: is from bbref, but I KNOW I once saw them list him as 195 lbs, and I believe just 6’7”; perhaps a recent correction, though it certainly would make more sense of his rebounding numbers)
18.5 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 3.1 apg @ 48.8% TS
12x All-Star
12x All-NBA (6x 1st)

Kleggie Hermsen (‘47-’53) 6’9”, 225 lbs
9.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.3 apg @ 35.6% TS

George Nostrand (‘47-’50) 6’8”, 195 lbs
8.2 ppg, 0.8 apg @ 34.9% TS

Jerry Fowler (6 games played in ‘52) 6’8”, 230 lbs
1.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 0.3 apg @ 30.5% TS

Jim Slaughter (lasted 28 games TOTAL in ‘52) 6’11”, 210 lbs
5.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 0.9 apg @ 37.7% TS

Ed Macauley (‘50-’59) 6’8”, 185 lbs
17.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.2 apg @ 52.2% TS

Bill Roberts (‘49-’50) 6’9”, 210 lbs
3.5 ppg, 0.6 apg @ 37.8% TS

Red Rocha (‘48-’53, ‘55-’57) 6’9”, 185 lbs
10.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.0 apg @ 44.1% TS
2x All-Star

Ed Peterson (‘50-’51) 6’9”, 220 lbs
7.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 0.9 apg @ 43.6% TS

Don Otten (‘50-’53) 6’10”, 240 lbs
10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 apg @ 47.5% TS

Connie Simmons (‘47-’56) 6’8”, 222 lbs
9.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 apg @ 40.8% TS

Neil Johnston (‘52-’59) 6’8”, 210 lbs
19.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.5 apg @ 53.4% TS
6x All-Star
5x All-NBA (4x 1st)

Chick Halbert (‘47-’51) 6’9”, 225 lbs
8.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.4 apg @ 38.3% TS

Ron Livingstone (‘50-’51) 6’10”, 220 lbs
6.3 ppg, (4.7 rpg), 1.9 apg @ 34.6% TS

Noble Jorgensen (‘47, ‘50-’53) 6’9”, 228 lbs
8.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.2 apg @ 44.1% TS

Harry Boykoff (‘50-’51) 6’10”, 225 lbs
10.1 ppg, (4.6 rpg), 1.9 apg @ 46.3% TS

John Pritchard (7 games in ‘50) 6’9”, 220 lbs
3.1 ppg, 1.1 apg @ 32.5% TS

Jim Browne (35 games played in ‘49-’50) 6’10”, 235 lbs
1.4 ppg, 0.2 apg @ 39.8% TS

Larry Foust (‘51-’62) 6’9”, 215 lbs
13.7 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.7 apg @ 48.5% TS
8x All-Star
2x All-NBA

Chuck Share (‘52-’60) 6’11”, 235 lbs
8.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.4 apg @ 48.8% TS

Herb Scherer (played 32 games in ‘51-’52) 6’9”, 212 lbs
3.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.7 apg @ 33.7% TS



So.........that’s a whole lot of guys who are at least within 2” of Mikan, including 7 guys who were as tall or taller (although no one quite as heavy as Mikan; but that again speaks to his somewhat burly natural physique); few of them within 5-10 lbs. Yet outside of Schayes and Johnston, none of them even remotely approached George Mikan’s degree of dominance. In fact, most were basically average players in the league of that time, and a handful (Jim Browne, Robert Hahn, John Pritchard, Jerry Fowler, etc) were downright scrubs who washed out of the league very quickly.

Thanx So much for posting this video. The Wilt Chamberlain Archive is a treasure trove of NBA history.

IF ONLY he'd turn down the volume so we could hear these announcer's and All-Time Great players' commentary a lot better!
JoeMalburg
Pro Prospect
Posts: 885
And1: 520
Joined: May 23, 2015
     

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#87 » by JoeMalburg » Sun Aug 6, 2017 4:24 pm

Primary Vote: George Mikan

Alternate Vote: Bob Pettit

Same logic as before. One of them's getting in looks like.

I see guys like this, as well as Curry, Durant, Isiah, Havlicek, Barry, Cousy, Clyde Frazier and Scottie Pippen as a tier above Nash, Ewing, Drexler as well as Paul, Stockton and that ilk.

It comes down to winning and an understanding of how to win that for me trumps more consistent statistical production. Each of those guys I listed are unconventional. They've made unconventional choices that cost them in terms of stats, sometimes public and critical esteem and often times money. They've sacrificed ego in ways that the guys below never did or never had to. Paul, Nash, Ewing, Stockton and Drexler had teams build around their strengths. Not always built ideally, but still, built to make them shine.

Clyde Drexler loved the open court and loved going full speed, straight ahead, all the time. So the Blazers built a team of strong athletic guys who could run, and they did and they were very successful. But when the half court game decided the final minutes of critical playoff games, the Blazers were a square peg ill-equipped for the round hole of crunch-time.

Steve Nash spearheaded (to borrow Doctor MJ's term) the offensive revolution and made it cool to be little. He led some of the best offenses of all-time for most of a decade. He had the ball on a string, could shoot the lights out and made basketball fun to play and watch. Phoenix surrounded him with the 7 seconds or less cast he'd need to succeed. A lot of ups, a lot of O and not a lot of D. As a result, that fun-first style could never outlast the more balanced and boring Spurs and Mavs long enough to reach an NBA Finals.

Ewing was a defensive prodigy, the worlds most intimidating pogo stick with the requisite scowl and flat top fade to be cast in exactly the part he played throughout his NBA career. The Knicks brought in Pat Riley and he remade the team in the Bad Boys image around a dominant defensive anchor in Patrick. The Knicks surrounded Patrick with long and/or strong physical forwards like Charles Oakley and Charles Smith, Anthony's Mason and Bonner and veteran take no shit guards like Derek Harper, Doc Rivers, John Starks and Mo Cheeks. Even a cameo from Xavier McDaniel, a crucial part of the Knicks pushing the Bulls to seven in 1992, shows a commitment to toughness that suits Ewing just right. And yet, they were always just short. The whole Ewing theory thing is non-applicable until at least 1997. Before that he was questionably an asset and one of the leagues elite centers year in and year out.

Likewise Stockton and Paul have been paired with above average to elite front court players and good shooting and scoring guards in support to complement their past first nature. Elite shooters who never took a bad shot, their teams brought in more aggressive guards (Janero Pargo, Jamal Crawford, Jeff Malone, Jeff Hornacek) to help take the back court scoring load of of their stars who were more comfortable and effective not having to force the issue. I'm not saying it hurt their teams, I'm just saying it didn't help them as much as other, comparable elite players, approaches did in terms of winning.

All of them are great players and fair choices at this point I believe. I am just trying to demonstrate my line of thinking with how I distinguish them.
dhsilv2
RealGM
Posts: 42,786
And1: 22,514
Joined: Oct 04, 2015

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#88 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 4:44 pm

drza wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
drza wrote:
"With Ewing, if I'm convinced that he's near the peak of his defensive powers here, he should be reasonably in the +5 to +6 range on defense (using Doc MJ's normalized RAPM scale as a base; for reference Duncan (+6.78), Robinson post '97 (+6.78), Ben Wallace (+6.8) and Zo Mouning post 97 (~+7) all peaked on defense around +7 on that scale, so peak Ewing should at least be within shouting distance of that). Meanwhile, high-volume/efficiency scoring bigs that aren't big assist men (using Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire as estimate models) tended to peak around + 3 to +4. Thus, I think +8 to +9 is a reasonable estimate for peak Ewing on this scale."


That 90 Knicks team was 13th out of 27 teams in defensive rating and he had a health Charles Oakley (well though of defender) next to him. They were roughly the same the year prior and the year after.

A +5 DRAPM seems extremely generous, I'd assume all the comps listed here were on a top level defense. If you were talking about one of the years the knicks were a top defense, that might seem more reasonable.


That's a fair area to examine further, but I'm not sure that +5 on defense is quite as generous as you're making it out to be. On that scale, a +5 in normalized DRAPM would be below the 3-year peaks (1998 - 2012) of Bo Outlaw (+5.9), Rasheed Wallace (+5.7), or Andrew Bogut (+5.7). It's right around what one would expect from the top three seasons of Shane Battier (+5.1). These are all great defensive players, but not dominant in the way that some of the other names I mentioned peaking around +7 on defense may have been.

Also, we actually have DRAPM scores for late-career Ewing in 98 - 00 when he was nearing the end. And in those seasons he was consistently around +5 in normalized DRAPM. In '90, much closer to his athletic peak, I would think an estimate of +5 would have been reasonably conservative.

Actually, I'd think the more controversial impact estimate that I gave for Ewing would be his offense. I estimated in the +3 to +4 range, based on the best seasons that we saw from Amare (+4.1, +3.8) and Howard (+3.5,+3.5). Late 90s Zo also came out in that range. However, most bigs with normalized ORAPM scores that high or higher were plus passers, which Ewing wasn't. None of Amare, Howard or Zo were either, so I think the estimate for Ewing is defendable, but it is probably not as well supported IMO as the defensive impact estimate.


Do you have a source for these RAPM numbers?

My contention is that what I've seen is that the defensive real plus is generally going to be favorable to better defensive teams, it just doesn't look like the work done in those models clears out nearly all the noise. Which of course is why I assume +/- 2 on all RAMP data, which more or less means everyone is equal, and I do this even more so if comparing different years (which we are doing here). Given the knicks in question were average at best defensively in these years, I would be suspect of RAMP giving Ewing such a high score. The knicks relative to the league in the years that you say you do have data, were significantly better defensively.
Fundamentals21
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,385
And1: 625
Joined: Nov 28, 2012
         

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#89 » by Fundamentals21 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 5:10 pm

I haven't seen a player as unjustifiably bashed as Nash for defense (?). It almost feels like a way to justify the great offense and place him lower than he really should be.

Some Kevin Pelton stuff from 06 and 09, for those interested.

http://www.82games.com/pelton15.htm
http://valleyofthesuns.com/2009/10/27/a-suns-q-and-a-with-bps-kevin-pelton/

Suffice to say his teammate effects were unreal. Amare/Marion etc benefitted in out of the world type ways.
drza
Analyst
Posts: 3,518
And1: 1,852
Joined: May 22, 2001

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#90 » by drza » Sun Aug 6, 2017 5:24 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
drza wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
That 90 Knicks team was 13th out of 27 teams in defensive rating and he had a health Charles Oakley (well though of defender) next to him. They were roughly the same the year prior and the year after.

A +5 DRAPM seems extremely generous, I'd assume all the comps listed here were on a top level defense. If you were talking about one of the years the knicks were a top defense, that might seem more reasonable.


That's a fair area to examine further, but I'm not sure that +5 on defense is quite as generous as you're making it out to be. On that scale, a +5 in normalized DRAPM would be below the 3-year peaks (1998 - 2012) of Bo Outlaw (+5.9), Rasheed Wallace (+5.7), or Andrew Bogut (+5.7). It's right around what one would expect from the top three seasons of Shane Battier (+5.1). These are all great defensive players, but not dominant in the way that some of the other names I mentioned peaking around +7 on defense may have been.

Also, we actually have DRAPM scores for late-career Ewing in 98 - 00 when he was nearing the end. And in those seasons he was consistently around +5 in normalized DRAPM. In '90, much closer to his athletic peak, I would think an estimate of +5 would have been reasonably conservative.

Actually, I'd think the more controversial impact estimate that I gave for Ewing would be his offense. I estimated in the +3 to +4 range, based on the best seasons that we saw from Amare (+4.1, +3.8) and Howard (+3.5,+3.5). Late 90s Zo also came out in that range. However, most bigs with normalized ORAPM scores that high or higher were plus passers, which Ewing wasn't. None of Amare, Howard or Zo were either, so I think the estimate for Ewing is defendable, but it is probably not as well supported IMO as the defensive impact estimate.


Do you have a source for these RAPM numbers?

My contention is that what I've seen is that the defensive real plus is generally going to be favorable to better defensive teams, it just doesn't look like the work done in those models clears out nearly all the noise. Which of course is why I assume +/- 2 on all RAMP data, which more or less means everyone is equal, and I do this even more so if comparing different years (which we are doing here). Given the knicks in question were average at best defensively in these years, I would be suspect of RAMP giving Ewing such a high score. The knicks relative to the league in the years that you say you do have data, were significantly better defensively.


The original spreadsheet database of different PI RAPM studies from 1998 - 2012 was put together by Doc MJ, here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1313139 . The link to the database is found in the OP. I've since downloaded and modified the database several times, including updating the 2002 RAPM to the full season study, as well as adding 2013, 14, 15 and 16. But, this link should get you to the data I referenced for Ewing, Amare, Howard and Zo. Also of note (which I think comes out in the thread linked above), his 1998 study is incomplete, which means that his normalization method is off. Thus, for that year, the order of players at the top is presumed correct, but his normalized values are too high, and shouldn't be used without that big grain of salt.

To your point, I haven't noted (or seen any type of quantification) of the type of team-based bias you describe. In fact, there are vocal critics of the RAPM approach that allege the exact opposite to your allegation that good defenses help DRAPM scores...namely, that a bad supporting cast helps scores (One commonly used example is in 2007, Garnett leads the NBA in DRAPM on a Wolves team that ranks #21 in team defense).

The whole purpose of the RAPM approach is to try to distinguish, as much as possible, a player's contributions from the team's.
You may contend that the RAPM algorithm doesn't complete its mission, but I think you'd have to come up with some quantified support of that theory before you can make a sweeping "corrective" estimate like +/- 2 for all data. Where'd that number come from? Is that for one year studies, or multi-year? How do repeated measures and/or measurements in different situations play in to lowering/countering that estimated error factor? Like with anything else, I can be convinced...but I need more than just a "this is my opinion"
Creator of the Hoops Lab: tinyurl.com/mpo2brj
Contributor to NylonCalculusDOTcom
Contributor to TYTSports: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTbFEVCpx9shKEsZl7FcRHzpGO1dPoimk
Follow on Twitter: @ProfessorDrz
Pablo Novi
Senior
Posts: 683
And1: 233
Joined: Dec 11, 2015
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Contact:
   

My "Not Counting Segregation; The NBA's 3 Biggest Historical 'Crimes'" 

Post#91 » by Pablo Novi » Sun Aug 6, 2017 5:51 pm

My "Not Counting Segregation; The NBA's 3 Biggest Historical 'Crimes'": *
1) Not treating its earliest players justly by denying them sufficient retirement benefits (including after-death benefits to relatives). http://www.apbr.org/pension.html This would cost the NBA almost nothing; but be so righteous.

2) Treat the ABA like the NFL treats the AFL - with historical equality. N.B. The ABA started out much weaker than the NBA; but, for a number of reasons, including recruiting NBA-ineligible players; each year gained on the NBA. ...

i) The ABA ended up winning more than half of the very-intense ABA-NBA pre-season exhibition games!. http://www.remembertheaba.com/ABAStatistics/ABANBAExhibitions.html

ii) Despite the NBA hugely "raping" the ABA, the 4 former-ABA teams held their own in the post-merger NBA. http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1977.html {Click on "Next Season" for the following year(s)}

iii) The post-merger NBA All-Star games featured a proportionate number of former-ABA players & they held their own. http://www.basketball-reference.com/allstar/NBA_1977.html {Click on "Next Season" for the following year(s)}

iv) In particular, for the 10 or so greatest ABA-ers, to rob them of their incredible ABA achievements is no small injustice (they'd rank much higher on the All-Time lists). http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ (Compare NBA/ABA (combined) All-Time Leader lists to NBA (only) All-Time Leader lists (for dozens of different stats (regular and advanced) categories.)

v) FOUR NBA Teams (Denver, Indiana, Brooklyn & San Antonio) had their origins in the ABA; what right does the NBA have to "erase" their early history?

Again the NBA fixing this would be so righteous.

3) Treat the NBL (12 seasons: 1938-1949) with all the great respect it truly deserves:

a) THE first really professional Basketball League;

b) THE FIRST League in any major American sport to have, at least temporarily, a fully integrated team (before MLB's Jackie Robinson);

c) A League that was a good deal superior to the BAA during its first year (1947, NBL's Mikan's 1st full-year), as proven by the 2nd-year's BAA best two teams being ex-NBL teams &, during it's next years it's 3 best teams and 5 of its best 8 teams being former NBL franchises; &

d) The ORIGNAL "HOME" of, count them, FIVE still-existing NBA Teams:
1 Detroit Pistons (Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons (1939-40 season ... ));
2 Sacramento Kings (Rochester Royals (1945-46 season ...; they existed as a professional team since the 1923-24 season ! ))
3 Atlanta Hawks (Buffalo Bisons (1946-47 season); then Tri-Cities Blackhawks (1948=49 season ... ));
4 L.A. Lakers (Detroit Gems (1946-47 season); then Minneapolis Lakers (1947-48 season ... )); &
5 Philadelphia 76ers (Syracuse Nationals (1946-47 season ... )).

Why negate/erase all this glorious history? At long last, do the right thing, NBA !

* This was from my THIRD post ever here at RealGM (all first three were on Dec 12, 2015, the day after I was signed up). It was about half of that post. It was post #10 in this thread:
"Would moving the three-point line back improve the NBA?"
viewtopic.php?f=427&t=1417479

N.B. What I didn't address in this post was, EASILY, the NBA's #1 historical crime: Early Segregation.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 11,850
And1: 7,265
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#92 » by trex_8063 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 6:01 pm

Winsome Gerbil wrote:I don't even choose to go there with Mikan.

I briefly made this comparison for Mikan back at the beginning of this project:

Player A: 439gms 10156pts 4167reb 1245ast
Player B: 487gms 10308pts 5267reb 1468ast

And there is not a doubt in my mind, none whatsoever, that Demarcus Cousins would utterly and completely wreck the early NBA. the only thing stopping him from joining Wilt in the 50ppg club would be the lack of a shotclock in the early years. And again, if you had George Mikan try to play Cousins 1 on 1, or in a team setting, again, it would be a beatdown.


I feel like you're assuming Cousins would have his same modern-compatible game. The thing is, DeMarcus Cousins (if born 60 years earlier and allowed to play in Mikan's time), he's not going to be doing crossovers and spin-moves and swishing treys, or necessarily doing ANY other dazzling things that are so far ahead of everyone else. Why? Because no one else was.

Sure, he's a fantastic athlete, equal to or ahead of nearly everyone else playing at that time.....but that doesn't necessarily automatically equate to dominance. For a near-Mikan era example, let's look at Walter Dukes. 7'0", VERY athletic (black, fwiw), can get an idea of his grace, quickness, and leaping in this video (from his college days):



He came into the league in 1955, played 8 seasons, did manage two All-Star selections, though only had a career 14.4 PER, .079 WS/48 in 26.5 mpg. Seemed to have a small positive impact defensively, at least early in his career; otherwise was a career 10.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, -1.40% rTS (career 36.9% FG's).


idk.....I feel like people just assume if one is big, black, and athletic playing in that time-period, he'll utterly and easily embarrass all the competition of the time. But in fact, we have specific examples that this wasn't always the case, at least very near to Mikan's career: Dukes' rookie season was the same year as Mikan's final year (coming out of retirement at age 31, and a bit banged up, iirc), fwiw......

'56 Dukes
7.8 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.7 apg @ +3.28% rTS
13.8 PER, .104 WS/48 in 21.5 mpg
team went 27-33 (.450) with him, 8-4 (.667) without him

'56 Mikan
10.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.4 apg @ -0.30% rTS
17.8 PER, .098 WS/48 in 20.7 mpg
team went 19-18 (.514) with him, 14-21 (.400) without him


EDIT: Oh, and there is no runner today who is seconds ahead of Jessie Owens. His best times are still within ~0.7 sec of the current WR in 100m, only about 1.5 sec of the current 200m WR......and that's with him in clearly inferior shoes and running on a dirt track (which hardly makes it apples to apples, if you ask me).
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 11,850
And1: 7,265
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#93 » by trex_8063 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 6:16 pm

twolves97 wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:
mischievous wrote:This being the best among peers reasoning doesn't make sense when your competition is pretty nonexistent. If i go to the basketball court in my town and dominate some 14 year olds at a level never seen before does that make me some sort of legend?

That example is hyperbolic but the point should be taken.


There is a huge difference which renders the point moot. There weren't better collections of basketball talent anywhere in the country than the competition George faced. You could find better comp than a group of 14 year olds in one small town.

I disagree. This is exactly how I feel about Mikan. As he said the example is hyperbolic but what he means to convey with the analogy is on point. You think his point is moot because you choose not to see it.



imo, BOTH sides of this debate have a point.

If we're talking about being the best among your peers, but the peers referred to for one era are clearly inferior to that of another......sure, that should be given some consideration (as twolves97 and mischievous are arguing).

However, that should [imo] be balanced against consideration for being the best there was in the world in your own time. Otherwise.......idk, that's kinda like faulting Leonardo da Vinci for not inventing the microchip or the internet. It's like faulting Alfred Hitchcock or John Ford for not having better [modern] special effects in their movies.
You're basically holding Mikan (or his contemporaries) accountable for not possessing skill-sets that no one----literally NO ONE----on planet Earth possessed at the time. That's not a fair way to look at it.

Especially because we're not even talking about skillsets that are out of reach to all except the most hyper-elite basketball savants; we're talking about skills tens of thousands of young players around the globe have attained......simply because they had the exposure, nothing more.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 11,850
And1: 7,265
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#94 » by trex_8063 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 6:30 pm

Thru post #93:

Bob Pettit - 6 (dhsilv2, Doctor MJ, Dr Positivity, mischievous, Pablo Novi, scabbarista)
George Mikan - 6 (Winsome Gerbil, wojoaderge, penbeast0, Joao Saraiva, JoeMalburg, JordansBulls)
Patrick Ewing - 4 (Clyde Frazier, drza, Hornet Mania, trex_8063)
Kevin Durant - 2 (pandrade83, andrewww)
Stephen Curry - 2 (oldschooled, twolves97)
Steve Nash - 1 (micahclay)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


Leaving this thread open just another 1-2 hours.

eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

RCM88x wrote:.

Tesla wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

andrewww wrote:.

colts18 wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

JoeMalburg wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
janmagn
Starter
Posts: 2,139
And1: 341
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
       

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#95 » by janmagn » Sun Aug 6, 2017 6:34 pm

Vote: George Mikan
2nd vote: Stephen Curry


George Mikan was a player who showed what it was like to be a real superstar. Without him, there is no Kareem or Hakeem or Ewing.


Now, at first look, he looks like he was a very inefficent post player, having a career peak of .428FG% and .509TS%. However, league average for FG% was .357% and for TS% .428%. His TS% was almost 10% higher than league average! He was ultimately efficent scorer for his era.

Mikan led the league in scoring three times and in rebounding twice. His career FT% .782% made him an elite foul shooter. He led the league in PER and WS three times, OWS twice and DWS five times, suggesting that he was a good to great defensive player.

In the playoffs, he stepped up his game. Not necesseraly scoring more, but scoring more efficently. His Playoff peak TS% of .543% is decent even for todays stantards. In his era, it was out of this world.

He really was one of the ultimate champions. In the NBL, in his two seasons he won two championships. And in the BAA/NBA, he played in six full seasons, winning five times.

Mikan suffered from many injuries, but also from rule changes. The lane was widened because of his dominance. Goaltending was an added violation, because of his dominance. The shot clock, that he can't see our game played without nowadays, was created because of his dominance.


Lähetetty minun LG-H440n laitteesta Tapatalkilla
dhsilv2
RealGM
Posts: 42,786
And1: 22,514
Joined: Oct 04, 2015

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#96 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 6:45 pm

drza wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
drza wrote:
That's a fair area to examine further, but I'm not sure that +5 on defense is quite as generous as you're making it out to be. On that scale, a +5 in normalized DRAPM would be below the 3-year peaks (1998 - 2012) of Bo Outlaw (+5.9), Rasheed Wallace (+5.7), or Andrew Bogut (+5.7). It's right around what one would expect from the top three seasons of Shane Battier (+5.1). These are all great defensive players, but not dominant in the way that some of the other names I mentioned peaking around +7 on defense may have been.

Also, we actually have DRAPM scores for late-career Ewing in 98 - 00 when he was nearing the end. And in those seasons he was consistently around +5 in normalized DRAPM. In '90, much closer to his athletic peak, I would think an estimate of +5 would have been reasonably conservative.

Actually, I'd think the more controversial impact estimate that I gave for Ewing would be his offense. I estimated in the +3 to +4 range, based on the best seasons that we saw from Amare (+4.1, +3.8) and Howard (+3.5,+3.5). Late 90s Zo also came out in that range. However, most bigs with normalized ORAPM scores that high or higher were plus passers, which Ewing wasn't. None of Amare, Howard or Zo were either, so I think the estimate for Ewing is defendable, but it is probably not as well supported IMO as the defensive impact estimate.


Do you have a source for these RAPM numbers?

My contention is that what I've seen is that the defensive real plus is generally going to be favorable to better defensive teams, it just doesn't look like the work done in those models clears out nearly all the noise. Which of course is why I assume +/- 2 on all RAMP data, which more or less means everyone is equal, and I do this even more so if comparing different years (which we are doing here). Given the knicks in question were average at best defensively in these years, I would be suspect of RAMP giving Ewing such a high score. The knicks relative to the league in the years that you say you do have data, were significantly better defensively.


The original spreadsheet database of different PI RAPM studies from 1998 - 2012 was put together by Doc MJ, here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1313139 . The link to the database is found in the OP. I've since downloaded and modified the database several times, including updating the 2002 RAPM to the full season study, as well as adding 2013, 14, 15 and 16. But, this link should get you to the data I referenced for Ewing, Amare, Howard and Zo. Also of note (which I think comes out in the thread linked above), his 1998 study is incomplete, which means that his normalization method is off. Thus, for that year, the order of players at the top is presumed correct, but his normalized values are too high, and shouldn't be used without that big grain of salt.

To your point, I haven't noted (or seen any type of quantification) of the type of team-based bias you describe. In fact, there are vocal critics of the RAPM approach that allege the exact opposite to your allegation that good defenses help DRAPM scores...namely, that a bad supporting cast helps scores (One commonly used example is in 2007, Garnett leads the NBA in DRAPM on a Wolves team that ranks #21 in team defense).

The whole purpose of the RAPM approach is to try to distinguish, as much as possible, a player's contributions from the team's.
You may contend that the RAPM algorithm doesn't complete its mission, but I think you'd have to come up with some quantified support of that theory before you can make a sweeping "corrective" estimate like +/- 2 for all data. Where'd that number come from? Is that for one year studies, or multi-year? How do repeated measures and/or measurements in different situations play in to lowering/countering that estimated error factor? Like with anything else, I can be convinced...but I need more than just a "this is my opinion"


The +/- 2 I think I read on ABR which wasn't doc's numbers so perhaps apples to oranges. It was also about the offense or defense, not the merged number which was seen as closer to +/- 1.

Math aside, we don't even have numbers to rank most of the players that imo should be getting discussed like this, but is it your view that this was the greatest era ever in the league? I ask because 90, which I see the board ranked as the 21st best season, the MVP voters had him 5th and really Hakeem and Robinson were right there with him, so there's a case he was seen as 7th best player in the year you're using to prop up a case for a top 25 career! The playoff stats vs the pistons that year aren't singing to me either.

I read your post on Ewing, and to be honest I expected you to be writing about why he wasn't a top 25 guy. Then at the end you picked him. I was actually shocked that your write up was to justify him here. So I'm back to the question of era because he was just so far down the list of best players in the 90's and we're ignoring so many players from the 40 decades prior who were seen era related as better.
User avatar
SactoKingsFan
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,236
And1: 2,759
Joined: Mar 15, 2014
       

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#97 » by SactoKingsFan » Sun Aug 6, 2017 8:14 pm

I’ll vote for Scottie Pippen even though he's not gaining any traction. I think his elite perimeter defense, overall defensive versatility (could guard 1-4, excellent help defender), highly valuable offensive game, very portable skill-set and good enough longevity gives him the edge over the remaining top 30 candidates. Pippen was a all-time great secondary star but could also run the offense at high level and was capable of being a legit franchise cornerstone as shown by his 94 season without Jordan.

Vote #1: Scottie Pippen
Vote#2: Kevin Durant


Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 11,850
And1: 7,265
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#98 » by trex_8063 » Sun Aug 6, 2017 8:41 pm

Thru post #97 (24 votes, requiring 13 for outright majority):

George Mikan - 7 (Winsome Gerbil, wojoaderge, penbeast0, Joao Saraiva, JoeMalburg, JordansBulls, janmagn)
Bob Pettit - 6 (dhsilv2, Doctor MJ, Dr Positivity, mischievous, Pablo Novi, scabbarista)
Patrick Ewing - 4 (Clyde Frazier, drza, Hornet Mania, trex_8063)
Kevin Durant - 2 (pandrade83, andrewww)
Stephen Curry - 2 (oldschooled, twolves97)
Steve Nash - 1 (micahclay)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)
Scottie Pippen - 1 (SactoKingsFan)


Nash, Cousy, and Pippen are eliminated. One vote transfers to Ewing, one to Curry; one 2ndary vote was for Nash (now a ghost vote).

Mikan - 7
Pettit - 6
Ewing - 5
Curry - 3
Durant - 2


So Durant is next on the chopping block. One vote transfers to Pettit, one to Ewing.....

Mikan - 7
Pettit - 7
Ewing - 6
Curry - 3


Curry is next eliminated. One 2ndary vote [for Nash] becomes a ghost vote. One vote transfers to Pettit.....

Pettit - 8
Mikan - 7
Ewing - 6


Ewing is eliminated. Three votes transfer to Pettit, one to Mikan.

Pettit - 11
Mikan - 8
*five votes having become ghost votes

Pettit wins this round. Will have the next thread up soon.

eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

RCM88x wrote:.

Tesla wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

andrewww wrote:.

colts18 wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

JoeMalburg wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
User avatar
rebirthoftheM
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,766
And1: 1,847
Joined: Feb 27, 2017
 

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#99 » by rebirthoftheM » Mon Aug 7, 2017 1:42 am

drza wrote:
The original spreadsheet database of different PI RAPM studies from 1998 - 2012 was put together by Doc MJ, here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1313139 . The link to the database is found in the OP. I've since downloaded and modified the database several times, including updating the 2002 RAPM to the full season study, as well as adding 2013, 14, 15 and 16. But, this link should get you to the data I referenced for Ewing, Amare, Howard and Zo. Also of note (which I think comes out in the thread linked above), his 1998 study is incomplete, which means that his normalization method is off. Thus, for that year, the order of players at the top is presumed correct, but his normalized values are too high, and shouldn't be used without that big grain of salt.

To your point, I haven't noted (or seen any type of quantification) of the type of team-based bias you describe. In fact, there are vocal critics of the RAPM approach that allege the exact opposite to your allegation that good defenses help DRAPM scores...namely, that a bad supporting cast helps scores (One commonly used example is in 2007, Garnett leads the NBA in DRAPM on a Wolves team that ranks #21 in team defense).

The whole purpose of the RAPM approach is to try to distinguish, as much as possible, a player's contributions from the team's.
You may contend that the RAPM algorithm doesn't complete its mission, but I think you'd have to come up with some quantified support of that theory before you can make a sweeping "corrective" estimate like +/- 2 for all data. Where'd that number come from? Is that for one year studies, or multi-year? How do repeated measures and/or measurements in different situations play in to lowering/countering that estimated error factor? Like with anything else, I can be convinced...but I need more than just a "this is my opinion"


I think both sides of the argument simplify things too much. It is never that simple. It is possible that for one player in a given season, his DRAPM stuff might be "helped" by his team sans him sucking. It is also possible that he might be "helped" by his supporting cast being great, thereby accentuating his own defensive footprint. Conversely, the same can apply to poor/average DRAPMs. It is never is black and white, and there won't be a single theory that will explain everything for you. That is why IMO, year by year tracking, taking into account the particular context of a player and his own individual play, is the only way we can make more concrete conclusions about defense.

So re KG 07.. I've been doing research based on the best available resources on the net I could find (so articles/commentary by wolves fans/commentary by other fans/game-tape etc) about the 05-07 Wolves. I also obviously went stat hunting, focusing on the game-logs of the wolves from these years.

From what I'm gathered so far, KG's DRAPM spike in 07 was mostly not the result of some epic level of defense that he was not displaying in the previous 2 seasons but displayed in 07. Most of what I've seen and read do imply his D was better in 07, and the game-logs do give support to this. I mean, the Wolves were playing at a better level of D for about half the season, despite having arguably the worst defensive talent of the 3 seasons, and it certainly wasn't Mark Blount and Ricky Davis that were leading the charge.

But starting with his on/off stuff, 07 KG gets a real value boost from the 6 games he missed during that season. 5 of them came at the tail end of the season, where the team was in total free-fall mode, with speculation rife that KG had played his last game in a Wolves jersey. The team was beyond atrocious as you know very well, and losing their soon to be gone superstar led to total chaos. From all accounts, the Wolves were playing playground basketball towards the end of the season. They were a team that had a license to suck by this stage with zero motivation to win. Then there's a game v the surging Suns he missed earlier on in the season, a team which feasted on P& R, and which feasted on the Wolves-less KG, that had zero P & R defenders besides KG. The wolves in the games prior were going through some troubles as a team. Evidently, they got demolished.

If you do some ratio calculations to try and isolate KG's on/off in the 76 games he did play, his DRAPM on/off is more like +2.8 DRTG, not the monstrous +6.3 we see. Conversely, in 06, his defensive indicators don't really receive a boost in the 6 late games he missed when the Wolves went total 'youth movement'.

To me, looking for KG's "value" in these missed games in 06/07 is not something i'm interested in. The last 5 games IMO are total noise and the game v the Suns is not data I find to be very instructive. Yet I have no doubt that these 6 games heavily influenced his DRAPM figures that year, (as it counted for around 30% of his total "off" minutes) giving the false impression to many that his defense went back to 'best-in-the-league' impact in 07 as compared to his defense in 05 and 06. My suspicion has always been is that KG was playing excellent defense through-out this period, just that the team situation really led to fluctuations.

I think if we do year by year analysis (as best as possible), trying to provide explanations on the varying DRAPM/RAPM figures we are seeing, then we'll reach somewhere productive. The multi-year stuff obviously manages outlier, and bizarre results, but it also poses the danger of conflating season by season results.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 50,782
And1: 19,479
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #24 

Post#100 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 7, 2017 8:26 am

euroleague wrote:
twolves97 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:Let’s talk skills….
You said you think you’re better, and from a modern standard of skillset, you’re likely right. But I’ll ask you: how do you think you came to be better?

Did you or did you not have exposure to modern stars (via TV, NBA TV, YouTube, etc) growing up?
Did you or did you not try to ape what those stars were doing as you were developing your game (shot mechanics, specific moves, etc)?
Were all of your peer doing the same thing, such that you had that kind of constant feedback loop, and all challenging and pushing each other in developing these aped skills?
Did you or did you not learn drills from coaches or peers to practice skills which either were not allowed or otherwise had not yet even been pioneered in Mikan’s day?

I’ve not seen you play, but I’m willing to bet you’re not an extreme outlier---in this era----in your basketball skills. There are likely thousands (or perhaps tens of thousands) of other kids and young men around the globe who are as good or better than you and basically every single basketball skill. Otherwise (and I do NOT mean this as an insult, but rather just pointing out the factoid that you shared as a means of illustrating the point) you’d have received a scholarship from something bigger Chicago State.
So, given the skills you possess are so accessible to thousands of young players today, I think it’s pure generational arrogance and vanity to assume a prior generation couldn’t also find these skills just as accessible if they were afforded all the same influences you were…..particularly one who seemed as far ahead of the basketball curve as Mikan appeared to be at the time.

And just as a suggestion that it wasn’t ONLY his size that enabled him to dominate, just going to list a few other similar sized chaps from the same era, and what kind of players they were:

Your completely right. I agree with everything you said here and I have no doubt give modern resources he would be a much better player than I am and he could probably make a D-1 roster. However, I have no doubt in my mind that Bill Russell is so much better than me at basketball it's not even comparable. I'm 100% sure that Don Nelson is way better at basketball than I am and he was a role player. Same with Pettit(though he obviously wasn't a role player). But I watch Milan play and I can't help but think I'm better than that guy. And the fact that I can even think that and not be totally wrong is my issue with having him so high. Know if I had been grown up when he did and had to learn basketball in 40s-50s like he did I know I would be worse than him. I just don't think Mikan was very good at basketball. Maybe it's some confirmation bias as I have never thought of Mikan as an All-time great. That's how I feel and I don't think I'm way off base either. Heck, you even agreed that you think in the modern sense I am a better basketball player. I struggle with that immensely when talking about putting him over guys like Curry, Nash, Ewing and Durant.


Russell may be much better than Mikan, but Mikan was much bigger and stronger.

Also, in the same respect, players like Anthony Davis and Giannis look at Bill Russell/Wilt and think "I'm way better than this guy. Why is he ranked so high?" Comparing across eras while using yourself as a benchmark seems rather arbitrary.

Obviously Russell watched Mikan, and learned about how to play defense from him. The comparison doesn't seem valid. Mikan played in 1947 and was MVP in 1948, Russell was 13/14 years old.


Apologies for struggling to answer everything you and others have said. I don't mean to be like that but I can't get to everything right now, and I feel I need to respond to this last part.

Consider very seriously:

When would Russell have had the opportunity to seriously watch Mikan growing up?

Television? People can correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt he ever got to see Mikan on TV. It was a different age.

In person? Russell grew up in California. There was no NBA out there at the time.

Add in that Russell was noted for the way he played so, so different from how big men were supposed to play. He was far more aggressive taking risks that mere mortals - like Mikan - just couldn't get away with because Russell was so impossibly quick for his size (and had such unprecedented intuition).

Someone like that doesn't develop by watching the previous generation. He does it by doing what makes sense for his body.

So yeah, the inference you see as obvious isn't simply not obviously right, it basically doesn't even make sense once you understand the details of the context.

I don't want that to be a disrespectful statement. We all get things wrong when we do this. But I think you need to understand that there are further layers that you haven't yet scratched.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!

Return to Player Comparisons