RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #25

[trex_8063]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. ????

A close battle between Ewing and Mikan? Or will another candidate sweep in to make a surprise upset? You decide. Go!

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[janmagn]

Vote: George Mikan
2nd vote: Stephen Curry


George Mikan was a player who showed what it was like to be a real superstar. Without him, there is no Kareem or Hakeem or Ewing.


Now, at first look, he looks like he was a very inefficent post player, having a career peak of .428FG% and .509TS%. However, league average for FG% was .357% and for TS% .428%. His TS% was almost 10% higher than league average! He was ultimately efficent scorer for his era.

Mikan led the league in scoring three times and in rebounding twice. His career FT% .782% made him an elite foul shooter. He led the league in PER and WS three times, OWS twice and DWS five times, suggesting that he was a good to great defensive player.

In the playoffs, he stepped up his game. Not necesseraly scoring more, but scoring more efficently. His Playoff peak TS% of .543% is decent even for todays stantards. In his era, it was out of this world.

He really was one of the ultimate champions. In the NBL, in his two seasons he won two championships. And in the BAA/NBA, he played in six full seasons, winning five times.

Mikan suffered from many injuries, but also from rule changes. The lane was widened because of his dominance. Goaltending was an added violation, because of his dominance. The shot clock, that he can't see our game played without nowadays, was created because of his dominance.

Lähetetty minun LG-H440n laitteesta Tapatalkilla

[wojoaderge]

What he said ^

Not much more to say about George Mikan other than he's my first vote once again. To repeat, no one left on the board was as dominating in his particular time or served as the go-to guy on as championship teams as he did.

1-George Mikan
2-Steph Curry

[trex_8063]

I'm again going with Patrick Ewing as my top pick.

*Amazing defensive center who anchored TWO of the eight best defenses EVER. How dominant were those defenses? Well, they led the league in both DREB% and Opp eFG% (the two FF components that a center has the most imprint on) BOTH years. Career avg of 2.4 bpg, excellent team defender, very good pnr defender (better than Hakeem, imo, up until his lateral mobility went to hell).
**Simultaneously was a much better than average offensive center who averaged 21 ppg @ 55.3% TS for his seventeen year career (though struggled a pinch in the playoffs at times). In the TEN years from '88-'97, he avg 24.0 ppg @ 56.3% TS (fwiw, over that same span he avg 22.5 ppg @ 52.8% TS in the playoffs).
***Came close to a title once or twice (as well as taking the '92 Bulls to seven games) despite never in his prime playing with any other player who will even get a mention in this top 100 project.
****Excellent longevity, roughly 10-year prime, 15 years as a relevant player in the league.


My 2nd pick is largely between an array of SF's (Durant, Pippen, Havlicek) and Steve Nash.

Tentatively, I'm going with Durant. Durant's combination of hyper-elite off-ball scoring (pretty darn good in isolation, too), fine playmaking and rebounding for his position, and respectable (getting downright good of late, actually) makes him the highest peak and highest quality of avg prime season of the four of them for me. And his longevity isn't as far behind someone like Pippen, in particular, as one might think at first glance. He's got seven fewer seasons, true; but Pippen really only had about 8 really high-level prime seasons......same as Durant (Durant did miss 55 games in '15, but Pippen missed 38 in '98, so...)


1st vote: Patrick Ewing
2nd vote: Kevin Durant

[ardee]

My vote is Nash. I have him ahead of Paul, and here is the argument:

1. I think he gives his teams a higher ceiling. People call Nash's style of play "risky", but I don't see that it didn't provide results. Meanwhile, I think Paul didn't take enough risks. He always made the "safe" play, while this limited his turnover numbers, I think at times his overdribbling may have capped his team's offense. Not that he wasn't a great player but at this level it makes a difference.

2. Paul's injuries in the Playoffs are substantial. 2009, 2012, 2015, 2016: I think 2015 you can't really blame his level of play against the Rockets for the collapse at all, but if he hadn't missed those 2 games, one of which they lost, they might've won 4-1 and never been in a position to collapse. One or two injured years, like 2005 Duncan, can be overlooked, this is a trend however.

3. I think Nash did more with less. The Phoenix teams never game him as talented rosters as the 2014 and 2015 Clippers. Blake was a top 5 player those years, Nash never had that, and still pushed his team performance higher. I think there is definitive evidence that players' productivities increased under Nash and dropped after they ceased being teammates, not so with Paul.

4. Finally, I think Paul having a longevity edge is overblown. People seem to pass over the fact that Nash was still a truly great offensive player in 2011 and 2012. He still played 75/82 and 62/66 games those years, was in the 32ish mpg range, elite efficiency, elite on/off. I would say he was in contention for top 10 both years, 85-90% as good as 2010 when he was in my top 6.

Vote: Steve Nash

2nd: Scottie Pippen

[penbeast0]

Although he played in the weakest NBA era, George Mikan is 2 levels above anyone else left in terms of dominance. He put up Jordan level scoring numbers (relative to his peers), great rebounding, and from all reports, was the dominant defender of the early 50s as well. He dominated physically with his strength and athleticism (he wasn't appreciably taller than his peer, but he was built strong . . . like Shaq v. Shawn Bradley wasn't about height). He won consistently, almost every year during his prime. He is the only truly dominant player left with more than a 3 year or so resume.

Kevin Durant has been one of the top 5 player in the league for the last decade even if he's never been #1 (fixed). My wild card is Stephen Curry who had one of the GOAT seasons in 2016 and two others where he was in consideration of best player our of his short 7 year (has it been that long?) career. He also deserves a mention but I am not sure he deserves to be ahead of Durant yet though he's well on the way.

Vote: George Mikan
Alternate: Kevin Durant

[mischievous]

Kevin Durant has a decade as a top 5 player in the league

That's not accurate. The only ones where he was more or less a lock was 2012-2014, 16 and 17. In 2015 he doesn't make it due to injury, and even if we are generous and give him 2010+2011 where he literally was a weak defender and playmaker, that's still only 7 seasons max.

[Dr Positivity]

A case for how Mikan could have succeeded after the shotclock

- Peers that Mikan outplayed during his time continued to do well after the shotclock. Cousy, Schayes, Arizin, Sharman were still star level players until late 50s or early 60s, if not blossoming post shotclock in Schayes case. Possibly because the league wasn't fully integrated yet, shotclock stars were not made obsolete immediately in post shotclock. If Mikan looked great compared to them in shotclock era it doesn't make the most fair sense to say they translated but he wouldn't

- Mikan has excuses for struggling in his comeback other than not being able to keep up with the pace. He was over 30, had an injury ravaged body and rust. When Jordan came back in 95 the biggest thing he lost was efficiency as he dipped to .49 TS. Likewise Mikan in 54 led his team in TS but in 56 was 7th, which is one of the biggest reasons for his overall drop in productivity per minute. Unlike Jordan he wasn't playing a different pro sport during his retirement and getting back game shape and timing may have been difficult in half a season

[dhsilv2]

Trying to get organized and get ahead of this a bit. I've put together the guys who will be on my list from 25-40. Figuring out who goes where is of course the brutal part. Interestingly as I went through awards and peaks I dropped a few guys I thought would be higher. This is of course open to change as we discuss further. Each position is in the order I would rank them as well, but I’m struggling with that, especially on the small forwards. Barry is last, but the other 4 could all be interchanged. I also haven’t decided on Thomas vs Frazier.

Guards – Nash, Curry, Cousy, Thomas, and Frazier
Shoot Guard – Same Jones, Iverson, Gervin
Small Forwards – Pippen, Baylor, Havlicek, Durant, Barry
Power Forwards – McHale
Center – Mikan, Reed


Pick Nash – 2 MVP’s and he changed the game in the modern era. I’m looking past is lack of success in winning a title. 7 all nba’s 3 of which were first team. The MVPs push the resume over the top, without them I’ll admit 3 first teams would not be good enough for this location. It’s a struggle with the points as Curry has peaked higher, and Cousy without a doubt had a more successful career, but I am discounting that era.

There’s not a clear 26 here. Too soon for any of the shooting guards, too soon for McHale. That leaves Pippen, Mikan, and Baylor with me not wanting to rule out Hondo or Durant. I suspect we’ll see a lot of small forwards soon.

2nd Pick Mikan – This feels like a bit of a cop out but given his traction I think I’ll join the Mikan camp. I’m not sure if this is too soon, but he’s by far the best paper resume left. The era weakness really makes this hard and the lack of footage. Pippen is the best defender of the remaining guys and the biggest winner (I somewhat discount playing with Russell), but he was never an MVP guy. 3rd is his best finish. Baylor similarly lacks an MVP, finished very high for a long time though. Still 10 all nba first teams are a strong case, and then there’s the lack of a ring. Hondo has the rings and MVP, but his shooting percentages give me pause. KD with one more season I think jumps everyone here, Nash and Mikan included but things like winshare and vorp make me feel he just needs a bit more time. I’ll sort all that out next round.

[JordansBulls]

1st Vote: George Mikan - 2nd all time in Playoff PER and a 5x time champion
2nd Vote: Clyde Drexler

[pandrade83]

Much of last time is the same - some tweaks have been made based on the remaining voter pool.

My Top 2 Point Guards left: Steph/Payton
My Top 2 wing/forwards left: Durant/TBD - need to do homework but leading contenders are Hondo/Pippen/Drexler/Baylor.
My Top 2 Centers left: Ewing/Mikan full disclosure - I grew up a Knicks fan.

Kevin Durant is great. He really is. For a second, I was worried he would be the Drexler to Lebron. I'm glad he's became so much more (and that's not an insult to Drexler). I loved that he figured out in the Finals that he is the best center in the league because he is the evolution of where that position is going. I loved that he really took his defensive game to another level this year. I loved that he went right at Lebron in the Finals. I sincerely believe he has the potential to become a Top 10 GOAT player and pass Bird. If he doesn't get injured those two years (I really believe OKC wins the '13 title if he doesn't get hurt), the narrative changes and he's in the Top 20. He's still "only" 44th in Win Shares, "only" 33rd in VORP, I think he will get to where he is going. He's a situation where the RPAM stats are wrong. Some things that highlight his impact:

- > 60% TS every year since '12 on >25 ppg every year during that time span. That's amazing efficiency - better than Dirk - who got all kinds of love earlier.
- A strong playmaker on top of his deadly efficiency - hovering at or around 5 apg since '13; that's why his TOV rate hovers around 12.
- OKC falls from 2nd in offensive efficiency to 16th once he departs
- GS improves from -2.6 to -4.8 on Defense this year. I know some are saying his D Impact is questionable and his career advanced stats are middling but I believe that's due to the context of the team; the improvement when he arrived in GS is material.
-His '13/'14/'16 playoffs have been criticized as "under-performing". In '13, he got 31-9-6, '14 he got 30-9-4 & '16 he got 28-7-3. He scored pretty efficiently in all 3 of those playoffs with the potential exception of '16 where he only shot 54% TS and oh btw had a 73 team on the ropes down 3-1.


Patrick Ewing anchored a defense that was best in the league for 3 straight years and Top 4 for nearly a decade. He forced MJ into a Game 7, and had MJ down 2-0 in '93. Everyone holds the '94 Finals over his head - what is forgotten is that he set the Finals blocks record in that series. He never won the big one and has some memorable defeats - but even in defeat he was a monster ('95 Gm 7 vs Indy, '97 Gm 7 vs. Miami, '92/'93 series vs. Chicago). He was what got them over the hump ('90 vs. Boston, '92 vs. Detroit) and he never played with another player in their prime who will sniff this list. It's unfortunate that he never quite got a chip - his offensive deficiencies had a way of showing up at the worst times.

Steph: Right with Durant, he has the potential to be an all time Top 10 player. Every metric that you'd want is there - he's also the only multiple time MVP with a title against quality competition left. The only reason he's not higher is the years aren't there - yet.

Mikan: I need to reconcile the fact that at peak, for his era his impact is as great as anyone's - but the era he played in would probably get taken to the cleaners by the ACC - even after nutrition/medical benefits are applied. I have him slotted as my next Center to get my support after Ewing is in because I don't think the 1st GOAT should slip too far.

GP: Very underrated, imo. I'll lead off with an outstanding elimination/closeout track record (which is far superior to Nash's).
22.8 PPG, 5.8 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.2 blk, 2.7 TO, 55.3% TS - all stats from '94-'03.
Had a knack for outplaying other strong point guards when it mattered because of his outstanding defensive presence and is one of very few point guards whose defensive impact is highlighted that he's the only one to win DPOY. A true all around player who averaged 21-8-5 during his prime while bringing elite defense and averaged 24-8-5 during the playoffs and had a tendency of showing up when it mattered. Has more Win Shares & VORP (the latter by a lot) vs. Nash even though one of Payton's best seasons ('99) was a lockout shortened one.

GP isn't getting any other sort of traction, so I should probably address the two issues likely to crop up:

1) The Denver series. There's no justification for it. It really is indefensible. 3 of those games are in my elimination/closeout records and his 2 worst performances in those types of games were in the Denver series (Games 3 & 5).
1A) The '95 LA Series. Van Exel out played him. Between '94 & '95 these were two years where a Title was in play for Seattle and they didn't just take a dump on the bed, they got up and smeared it on the wall as well

That said - those series did factor into the overall playoff and elimination record I showed above - and the overall track record is strong. It's unfortunate that he peaked later than a lot of other point guards did - and by the time he peaked the talent on him was not championship caliber; if you consider '99 or 2000 his peak, it was a dumpster fire situation.

2) His RPAM numbers are not as good as they could be. I'm not a huge fan of +/- stats but I can't ignore them either.

'97 & '98 are very strong - '99 for some reason isn't great - but I suspect team context (middling overall record, was out there for virtually all meaningful minutes - 2,010 minutes in a 50 game season is a ton) - even though 2000 bounces back. '01-'03 are basically flat even though WIn Shares & VORP remain at very high levels in '01 & '02 in particular. I don't think his '03 season has tremendous impact - and I think his defense was starting to slip in '01 & '02. It was probably still good - but not necessarily warranting the All D honors he received either.

I'm OK with this wart because I don't think RPAM stats do a great job of explaining elite players' impact who play huge minutes on basically .500 teams - it feels like a "blind spot" for the model - moreso in the years I'm referencing than some of the later years. The inconsistency from '99 to '00 in the metric is odd even though his other performance indicators are fairly comparable and I've read some of the multi-year work in this area - which makes me trust the '99 number less. I'm definitely aware of the flaws in the '97-'00 data vs. other years, but I do think it's important to at least speak to the wart.



1st choice: Kevin Durant
Alternate Selection: Patrick Ewing

[scrabbarista]

25. John Havlicek

26. Kevin Durant

I have these two at 21st and 22nd.

I. Havlicek has 1.5 "Best on Champs," putting him in elite company among remaining players, as only four others match this total. Among those players (Mikan, Isiah Thomas, Dave Cowens, Steph Curry), Havlicek's career totals in both the regular season and the playoffs are first by a huge margin.

II. Durant has a very balanced resume. What stands out most is that he is first among remaining players in my MVP voting metric and ranks above four or five players who are already on the list.

[oldschooled]

Only two guys left with multiple MVPs and championships in this project. Curry and Mikan. I'm gonna go with the guy whom you cannot penalize regarding competition. It would be blasphemous if both these guys not make it before 27th. You're talking bout a multiple MVP winner and champion here. A guy who did not make it past 2nd round and has no MVP entered before this guys. Think about that. Both these guys played at an elite level greater than like 5 guys who entered before them. Curry has more MVP shares than Paul, Wade, Stockton and Dirk with just what 5 years of uninjured season? Curry did and gave more than what this guys did with their "longevity". Curry elevated his team on a whole new level. He literally went from 25-100. Mark Jackson was driving a Ferrari but uses it like Kia. Steve Kerr changed that. Then Curry just rose out of nowhere. *insert well that escalated quickly gif*

Vote: Curry
Alt: Mikan

[wojoaderge]

Only two guys left with multiple MVPs and championships in this project.

Technically, there's three left

[oldschooled]

Only two guys left with multiple MVPs and championships in this project.

Technically, there's three left

Mel Daniels?

[wojoaderge]

Only two guys left with multiple MVPs and championships in this project.

Technically, there's three left

Mel Daniels?

[Hornet Mania]

My first place vote stays the same, Baylor back in the alternate spot. I think Ewing has been very underrated, it is no small thing to anchor elite defenses year after year in perhaps the greatest era of big men talent the league has ever seen. One Knicks title would have slotted him comfortably in the top 20, probably even top 15 (assuming some Knick lifers made it their mission to get him there). Close to 30ppg on 60% TS at his peak as an elite defensive anchor is really, really good.

25. Patrick Ewing
Alt vote: Elgin Baylor

Mikan is my next man up at the moment. After that Kidd, Nash, Drexler and a few other are clumped tightly together in my personal opinion plus current players like Curry and Durant coming on strong in the rearview mirror. Will be fun to see the arguments sort them out.

[Joao Saraiva]

1st vote - George Mikan

Makes sense he's close to Bob on the list. Also I think he should be ahead because they played at the same time and Mikan usually came out as the greatest player.

He's the only player who dominated an era that is not selected yet. So I'll stick with him.

2nd vote - Kevin Durant

[Dr Positivity]

Vote: Steve Nash

Peaks at an elite, MVP winning level, backed up by impact stats. Has a good 8 years in Phoenix along with some solid ones in Dallas where he still makes all-star and All-NBA. Great intangibles and solid portability. His combination of position (PG) and ability at that position makes him tremendous offensive impact while PG is the best position to be a defensive liability at.

2nd: George Mikan

Talked myself into Mikan as I feel he could have played in late 50s and early 60s based on peers success, his size and athleticism combo is very good and he has one of the best motors in history I believe. Doing well in the 50s is worth less than other eras but it's not meaningless and with Mikan's dominance I'm fine with him about here

[THKNKG]

Hate that I can't add much now, but work just started back full throttle... such is life. I hope to scale back up my involvement when I'm able.

Vote:
1. Steve Nash
2. Patrick Ewing

Why Nash: superlative offensive player, 7/8 superlative team offense years, crazy high offensive impact (via team offenses and RAPM), short list best O player ever (Jordan/Magic/Bird/Oscar/West/LBJ/Shaq/Kareem/Nash, with Nash on the higher portion of that list)

Why Ewing: much of what I would say has been said by TRex, but it boils down to the fact that he was a great defender, and led phenomenal team defenses. I'm not a huge fan of his offensive abilities, but he's certainly not a slouch

Why not Mikan - Era weakness, longevity issues (even relative to era) - I have him after these two, but they were great enough that I cannot justify him over them

Others coming up soon:

Durant
Curry
Frazier
Westbrook
Mutombo
Thurmond
Pippen
Payton
Kidd
Hondo
Reggie Miller
Drexler
Baylor
Barry
Artis
McHale