RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#61 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:05 am

JoeMalburg wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:
Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.


As long as you assume the stats aren't there to rank players or rate players, but to add additional insight, they're great. You also have to make sure you're comparing apple to apples. A bench player who's high on the list should not be compared to a starter for example.


The impression I get is that they are all very circumstantial. Put a player in the right position, use him to his strengths and surround him with other good players and you'll see a high RAPM. It's not that I don't see any value in it, but in a lot of instances it seems to be the most influential metric on votes, which does make sense to me yet.


Which metric would you prefer to use? Show me the metric, I'll point out the weakness. Nothing alone is sufficient.

So why did I bring up RAPM by itself? Because it's a given that everyone already uses the box score and the post I was responding to implicitly asked where we could see a significant advantage for Curry. Given the fact that many don't use +/- and that that's where his edge is clear, it's a logical place to point.


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#62 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:10 am

dhsilv2 wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:
The impression I get is that they are all very circumstantial. Put a player in the right position, use him to his strengths and surround him with other good players and you'll see a high RAPM. It's not that I don't see any value in it, but in a lot of instances it seems to be the most influential metric on votes, which does make sense to me yet.


It's somewhat the PER of the modern day for this sub-forum. I'm not sure if you traversed internet forums during the mid-late 00s, but PER was the end/all be all stat that people used to end debates.

I think though RAPM and on/off haven't gotten the same level of acceptance. Which is a positive development IMO. Wholesale rejection is obviously naive, but too much use can also get you lost.


Well I'm a huge fan of PER and I think it greatly improved everyone's understanding of basketball. I think people forget how bad we as fans were back when points per game was legit the metric that dominated most conversations. PER improve our "Eye test" because it changed the conversation from per volume to understanding efficiency and even got better feel for turnovers and assists.

RAPM however, I'm not sure where we are with it. We don't have an advocate like Hollinger who put out some WONDERFUL eye test/stats article on ESPN, especially if you had insider on the metric and how to use it. We don't have such an advocate that I'm aware of with RAPM and I think that's been a huge issue with these new stats. The result is a group of people who use it well, a group who use it without context, and another group completely confused because the stat has so many "WTF" moments.

I'd much rather we get more acceptance, but with better insight. I'd also like us to use more stats, not one stat to end all, but to be honest I don't think the average internet fan has enough of a background in data and analytics for that to work.


One of the big problems with those in RAPM circles who spearhead understanding is that they quickly get hired by NBA teams and soon after their data tends to disappear from the internet along with their voice. ;)

Of course as I say this, I'm known to be quite critical of Engelmann who is the longest running RAPM guy and who to me doesn't really understand the game just, he just runs his numbers.


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#63 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:36 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:
It's somewhat the PER of the modern day for this sub-forum. I'm not sure if you traversed internet forums during the mid-late 00s, but PER was the end/all be all stat that people used to end debates.

I think though RAPM and on/off haven't gotten the same level of acceptance. Which is a positive development IMO. Wholesale rejection is obviously naive, but too much use can also get you lost.


Well I'm a huge fan of PER and I think it greatly improved everyone's understanding of basketball. I think people forget how bad we as fans were back when points per game was legit the metric that dominated most conversations. PER improve our "Eye test" because it changed the conversation from per volume to understanding efficiency and even got better feel for turnovers and assists.

RAPM however, I'm not sure where we are with it. We don't have an advocate like Hollinger who put out some WONDERFUL eye test/stats article on ESPN, especially if you had insider on the metric and how to use it. We don't have such an advocate that I'm aware of with RAPM and I think that's been a huge issue with these new stats. The result is a group of people who use it well, a group who use it without context, and another group completely confused because the stat has so many "WTF" moments.

I'd much rather we get more acceptance, but with better insight. I'd also like us to use more stats, not one stat to end all, but to be honest I don't think the average internet fan has enough of a background in data and analytics for that to work.


One of the big problems with those in RAPM circles who spearhead understanding is that they quickly get hired by NBA teams and soon after their data tends to disappear from the internet along with their voice. ;)

Of course as I say this, I'm known to be quite critical of Engelmann who is the longest running RAPM guy and who to me doesn't really understand the game just, he just runs his numbers.


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Well John seems to be working for an NBA team himself. As much as people hate the stats, those who know them seem to work for the nba pretty fast lol. It's like they work :)
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#64 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:03 am

dhsilv2 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Well I'm a huge fan of PER and I think it greatly improved everyone's understanding of basketball. I think people forget how bad we as fans were back when points per game was legit the metric that dominated most conversations. PER improve our "Eye test" because it changed the conversation from per volume to understanding efficiency and even got better feel for turnovers and assists.

RAPM however, I'm not sure where we are with it. We don't have an advocate like Hollinger who put out some WONDERFUL eye test/stats article on ESPN, especially if you had insider on the metric and how to use it. We don't have such an advocate that I'm aware of with RAPM and I think that's been a huge issue with these new stats. The result is a group of people who use it well, a group who use it without context, and another group completely confused because the stat has so many "WTF" moments.

I'd much rather we get more acceptance, but with better insight. I'd also like us to use more stats, not one stat to end all, but to be honest I don't think the average internet fan has enough of a background in data and analytics for that to work.


One of the big problems with those in RAPM circles who spearhead understanding is that they quickly get hired by NBA teams and soon after their data tends to disappear from the internet along with their voice. ;)

Of course as I say this, I'm known to be quite critical of Engelmann who is the longest running RAPM guy and who to me doesn't really understand the game just, he just runs his numbers.


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Well John seems to be working for an NBA team himself. As much as people hate the stats, those who know them seem to work for the nba pretty fast lol. It's like they work :)


Right but he spent many, many years working for ESPN doing much more than just being the PER guy first. The reality is that you don't need to hire an expert to make up a PER-like stat. People have been doing it forever and still do it now. That's not to be too dismissive of PER it's quite good for what it is.




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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#65 » by Joao Saraiva » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:30 am

1st vote Kevin Durant

8 all time great seasons. He was the guy to compete with LeBron near his peak for MVP awards and getting one in 2014.

One of the best scorers the game has ever seen. Not superb all arround play but definitely good.

Easy to coexist with any kind of teammate since he doesn't require the ball in his hands a lot to be effective on offense. Seems to accept well not being the clear #1 leader, and while some might see that as a non competitive thing it also comes with the positive of him coexisting ego-wise with other superstars.

2nd vote - Scottie Pippen
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#66 » by euroleague » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:34 am

Continuing my voting trend:
Vote: Cousy
Alt: Havlicek
HM: Curry

Seems like I may be voting the same for a while. Can check some past threads for the logic. I'm tempted to change my vote to Curry, as imo he has a clear case above Durant/Pippen based off of peak and game impact.... but I feel that would lower the integrity of the voting process.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#67 » by Senior » Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:14 pm

I think that Curry's weak longevity could be a dealbreaker for him against pretty much everyone else except Durant. Let's say Curry has 5 years and counting, and Durant has 2010-2017 and counting. 2015 was 27 games and he missed the playoffs, so that's essentially a lost season (and what would've been one of his best years). That leaves 7 seasons, 2010-2014, 2016-2017. 7 vs 5 is not a huge difference, so this argument should really come down to how much importance you place on the impact numbers because those numbers blow away Durant's. Durant took a huge jump in 2014 by taking more of a primary role in playmaking, as teams such as Miami and Memphis were able to deny him off-ball, blow up his drives, and reduce his volume at critical points in their playoff series, even if his overall series averages look completely fine. Westbrook got a lot of flak for taking bad shots, but part of that dynamic is Durant making himself available to get the ball or being able to initiate their sets - "catalyzing" their offense to borrow a term from a recent thread.

Despite their relatively even box-scores/efficiency, one guy consistently grades out better in the RAPM/on+off/etc numbers. Curry from 13-17 is a 25/5/7 63% TS, Durant from 10-17 is 29/8/4 62% TS. Not a significant difference at all. The skill that makes Curry so great - his shooting - has always been there. He's been a better shooter than Durant since his rookie year to a 90% game breaking level. Once he got a coach+GM that built the team around his shooting they trampled the league. You could argue that Durant never got that kind of chance to be the centerpiece with Westbrook/Scott Brooks, but it's not as if Westbrook was chopped liver himself and you could also argue that Curry's skills enables more specialized players such as Iggy or Klay due to his offensive repertoire. Curry does more to open up the game for inferior teammates than Durant despite Durant's insane scoring because Durant's ability to break down defenses isn't as reliable as Curry's shooting.

Anyway, that's where I stand with Curry vs Durant. Durant's box scores/2 more seasons just don't do enough to convince me to take those 7 seasons over 5 Curry seasons, and since they're on the same team now, their accomplishments will be the same. But GSW seems more enabled by Curry than Durant.

vote: steph
alt: kd
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#68 » by trex_8063 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:59 pm

Thru post #67:

Kevin Durant - 8 (andrewww, dhsilv2, Joao Saraiva, pandrade83, penbeast0, scabbarista, trex_8063, Winsome Gerbil)
Stephen Curry - 4 (twolves97, Senior, oldschooled, Doctor MJ)
Scottie Pippen - 3 (2klegend, Dr Positivity, RCM88x)
Elgin Baylor - 2 (Pablo Novi, Hornet Mania)
Clyde Drexler - 1 (JordansBulls)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


About 5-6 hours longer for this thread.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#69 » by 70sFan » Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:10 pm

It seems that KD will be in after 6 hours. I have a question though - what makes him so much better than George Gervin that Iceman doesn't have any recognition yet? I know that Durant became better defender last season and he shoots more threes, but Gervin played much more seasons and had longer prime. He was also very good PS performer and he led many very good offensive teams deep without better supporting cast than Durant. I don't see how Durant's 6 prime seasons can be more valuable than Gervin whole prime which is much longer.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#70 » by urnoggin » Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:39 pm

70sFan wrote:It seems that KD will be in after 6 hours. I have a question though - what makes him so much better than George Gervin that Iceman doesn't have any recognition yet? I know that Durant became better defender last season and he shoots more threes, but Gervin played much more seasons and had longer prime. He was also very good PS performer and he led many very good offensive teams deep without better supporting cast than Durant. I don't see how Durant's 6 prime seasons can be more valuable than Gervin whole prime which is much longer.


Here's some career stats:
PER: Durant-25.2, Gervin-21.4
WS: Durant-119.8, Gervin-116.3
BPM: Durant-5.1, Gervin-1.7
VORP: Durant-47.0, Gervin-32.2

Sure, Gervin had a longer prime as of now, but it's pretty clear that Durant is on another level as a player and has already surpassed Gervin in career value. Durant is the more efficient scorer, better overall shooter, better rebounder, better passer, and better defender. Not hard to see why his career already surpasses Gervin at this point. Imo, Gervin is a volume scorer with relatively low impact on team offense (such as King, Dantley, Iverson, Melo).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#71 » by Pablo Novi » Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:41 pm

70sFan wrote:It seems that KD will be in after 6 hours. I have a question though - what makes him so much better than George Gervin that Iceman doesn't have any recognition yet? I know that Durant became better defender last season and he shoots more threes, but Gervin played much more seasons and had longer prime. He was also very good PS performer and he led many very good offensive teams deep without better supporting cast than Durant. I don't see how Durant's 6 prime seasons can be more valuable than Gervin whole prime which is much longer.

I haven't voted for Gervin; but I have been mentioning him as deserving for being voted in soon.
In MY view here's the principle reasons for the little-to-no traction:

1) FORGETTING THE ALL-TIME GREATS FROM THE 1970'S: Because of the general watered-downness of the 9 years of the Dual-League situation (1968-1976); people assume that there weren't the usual decadal share of All-Time Great Players in it. After Kareem & Dr J; who else has gotten much traction from the 1970s here. (And, in both Kareem's case, and Julius' case, they've both got a great case for inclusion "representing" the 1980s instead of the 1970s (or in addition to it)).

2) OVEREMPHASIS ON "MY GENERATION's STARS": Conversely, after our initial set of GOAT selections here; collectively we, imo, have slid back into "my era was the best one" type thinking.

2a) 1990s: By way of example, the 1990s were dominated by a terribly watered-down NBA (not as bad as the 70s but plenty bad nonetheless); yet we've got any number of 2nd-Tier players just from that decade getting voted in or getting serious traction. It can be shown CLEARLY that, throughout the entire 80 years history of the NBL-ABA-NBA, virtually ever top W-L season happened right after expansion. Four teams get added, and THEN the Bulls get 67 wins (followed by two more high-win years; but decreasing wins (as the watered-downness receded). Then two more teams are added before the 1996 season, and they go 72-10 (followed by two years with again decreasing win totals for obvious reasons). YET, people still call that the GOAT team; and, claim that the teams it faced and beat, were All-Time Great teams (but whose records were also inflated by that same mass expansion).

2b) 1980s: Magic & Bird took the League by storm; the previous drug-tainted decade was "erased". PR went BIG TIME. And, somehow, the 1980s were FULL of All-Time Great Teams and All-Time Great Players.

2c) 2000s, 2010s: The currently "new" generation tends to almost always get the most HYPED and therefore to have the reputation as THE BEST. We've got CURRENT players who don't come close to having as many Great Years (defined by me as Reg. Seasons in which the player was selected ALL-NBA 1st-Team or 2nd-Team) as some other unselected players; yet getting serious traction; even getting voted in. CP3, whom I love, for example).

3) OUR GOAT DISCUSSION SERIOUSLY OVER-EMPHASIZING CENTERS: Gervin didn't play Center. I've never seen a more Center-centric GOAT list than ours here. It's a self-fulfilling circle. Supposedly the Centers have always been the best players; so even if you did far less than dominate THAT position during your own era; you get in because you were somehow "automatically" better than even Top-Tier players from the other 4 positions.

Picture an actual team composed of ALL Centers. Who's bringing the ball up; setting up the offense; running endlessly around and thru picks (on offense and defense); stop-and-starting; dribbling, passing, thinking/reflecting as each play goes deeper into the shot clock and ever-more on-the-spot adjustments have to be made? Running (much) further out to take & contest 3s; etc. etc. No stat I know of accurately reflects all this "non-stat" effort & influence. So it gets largely ignored. But it IS quite important / valuable.

Isn't the true test simply: How Much You Did (Or Didn't) Dominate YOUR OWN POSITION During YOUR OWN ERA?
If you did THAT; they UP the GOAT list you should go. If you didn't do THAT;they DOWN the GOAT list you should go.
Isn't it a FIVE-man game? Don't you need decent quality at multiple positions to compete for wins & Chips? If one of your positional-players is decidedly weaker; won't the other team hammer you to death there?

But who's to judge who dominated and who didn't and on what basis?
I submit that no other "stat" is more reflective of the true value of YEARLY performances than is the ALL-LEAGUE (ALL-NBA, ALL-ABA, ALL-NBL) 1st-Team (then less so, 2nd-Team; then less so still: 3rd-Team) selections. The selectors' very jobs are reporting on the players, etc. Their very large number neutralizes individual selector's biases. They've been THE most highly qualified JUDGES of how players did. And their ANNUAL selections have HISTORICALLY reflected very well, who was better (and not) at each position.

We've got Cousy & Baylor with TEN ALL-NBA 1st-Team selections (with Cousy having 2 additional 2nd-Team selections); yet neither is close to getting voted in by us. There have ONLY been TEN players to ever get that many 1st-Team selections (and all the other ones have already been voted-in by us). The argument against Cousy is the weakness of his era - but then why have we voted in Mikan whose era was decidedly weaker? He DID what was asked of every other great player: dominate YOUR position during YOUR era. Same for Baylor. TEN YEARS worth of dominance is tremendous. But here it counts for about nothing.

Watch for the same thing to happen with such MULTIPLE-YEAR positionally-dominant players such as: Gervin & Rick Barry.

Btw, I really do not like to publicly criticize either our process or our results - I am SO impressed with the effort and the quality thought people are putting into these discussions. AND the lack of flame-warring. This is so rare in my experience. Given that, I'm reluctant to be pointing out our weaknesses.

Your very valid point about Gervin is my "excuse".
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#72 » by trex_8063 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:54 pm

70sFan wrote:It seems that KD will be in after 6 hours. I have a question though - what makes him so much better than George Gervin that Iceman doesn't have any recognition yet? I know that Durant became better defender last season and he shoots more threes, but Gervin played much more seasons and had longer prime. He was also very good PS performer and he led many very good offensive teams deep without better supporting cast than Durant. I don't see how Durant's 6 prime seasons can be more valuable than Gervin whole prime which is much longer.


Short answer: Durant has just been a significantly better player thru the majority of his career.

As great a scorer as Gervin was, I think Durant's been at least marginally better (at least from '14 on). Plus with that added benefit of having a SF/PF who can stretch the floor like him.

Defensively, I think Durant has been respectable for at least a few years (maybe as many as 6). This past season was arguably the first where he was outright good; but "respectable" is probably enough to be marginally ahead of Gervin on that end, with the possible exception of a few of Gervin's early years.

Durant's been a better passer/playmaker since at least '12 (perhaps more so if considered relative to positional expectation).
And Durant's been a better rebounder (even relative to positional expectation), except against Gervin's ABA years.


Just all around a better player.
And I also have difficulty saying Durant's prime is only 6 years. I would say 8 (though missed 70% of the season in '15). In '10, he was a 26.2 PER, .238 WS/48, +5.1 BPM, +14 efficiency differential (ALL of which exceed Gervin's career best---'78), led the league in scoring, was 12th in the league in RAPM (while playing a monster 39.5 mpg and not missing a single game), and he finished 2nd in the MVP vote (same as '78 peak George Gervin). It's hard for me to justify saying Durant is NOT yet in his prime there.

In fact, I think Durant's prime is at least as long as Gervin's. I mean, if we're going to give Gervin credit for an 8-year prime ('75-'82), for example [which might be marginally generous, imo], then there's no way you cannot give Durant credit for at least 8 years ('10-'17).

It's somewhat close, but I'd take those 8 years of Durant over Gervin's entire career. I just think quality of his 8 prime years are so far ahead of Gervin's 8 prime years, that the additional 6 non-prime years Gervin had (one mostly injured) don't quite make up the difference.
And then there's '09 Durant (which adds a small amount of value, as that was a decent non-prime season).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#73 » by janmagn » Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:57 pm

Vote: Stephen Curry
2nd vote: Elgin Baylor

Yes, I'm voting Curry here. To me he has shown enough. Maybe he lacks some longevity, but he's got one of the GOAT peaks, 2 MVPs and 2 championships as the top dog (second is arguable). He led his team to the best regular season record ever, he led them to beat a record nobody thought could be beat. GOAT shooter along with killer handles.

As for my second vote, Baylor is really the opposite than Curry. He has the longevity, but was always beaten by better players in MVP voting and in the playoffs. Had the tough task of beating the Celtics, and like many others, he couldn't do that. But his scoring and especially rebounding for somebody his size, it's special

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#74 » by trex_8063 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:18 pm

Thru post #73 (down to 20 votes this round; 11 required for true majority):

Kevin Durant - 8 (andrewww, dhsilv2, Joao Saraiva, pandrade83, penbeast0, scabbarista, trex_8063, Winsome Gerbil)
Stephen Curry - 5 (twolves97, Senior, oldschooled, Doctor MJ, janmagn)
Scottie Pippen - 3 (2klegend, Dr Positivity, RCM88x)
Elgin Baylor - 2 (Pablo Novi, Hornet Mania)
Clyde Drexler - 1 (JordansBulls)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


Cousy and Drexler are first eliminated. One vote becomes a ghost vote (for Havlicek), one vote transfers to Durant.

Durant - 9
Curry - 5
Pippen - 3
Baylor - 2


So Baylor is next eliminated. One 2ndary vote (for Cousy) is now a ghost vote, one transfers to Scottie Pippen....

Durant - 9
Curry - 5
Pippen - 4


So Pippen is next eliminated. Two votes become ghosts votes (for Payton and Havlicek), one transfers to Durant.

Durant - 10
Curry - 5


So no true majority, but a very comfortable edge on 2nd place for Durant. Calling it. Will have the next thread up in moments....

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ardee wrote:.

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Tesla wrote:.

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MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

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MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

andrewww wrote:.

colts18 wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

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dhsilv2
RealGM
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28 

Post#75 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:47 pm

70sFan wrote:It seems that KD will be in after 6 hours. I have a question though - what makes him so much better than George Gervin that Iceman doesn't have any recognition yet? I know that Durant became better defender last season and he shoots more threes, but Gervin played much more seasons and had longer prime. He was also very good PS performer and he led many very good offensive teams deep without better supporting cast than Durant. I don't see how Durant's 6 prime seasons can be more valuable than Gervin whole prime which is much longer.


Era - I think I'm with everyone who's partially discounting the 70's. I'm not strongly doing it.
MVP - Voting edge and KD won the award over Lebron.
Title - I don't discount KD's title for joining the warriors, but I'm aware of it in voting.
Playoff Success - Not even one finals appearance?

KD already has a higher winshare career and that's letting Gervin have his ABA days. KD also has a higher VORP career (1 aba season doesn't get counted but otherwise).

Basically KD has been significantly better by the box score stats and has had more success.

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