A very long post - guys are bunched together tightly at this point and I think stronger defenses will be required. This list of guys I have listed will carry me through #39 at minimum - potentially into the 40's depending on how things go or don't go.
My Top Point Guards left (in order): Payton/Kidd/Frazier
My Top Wings left (in order): Drexler/Barry/Gervin/Hondo/Baylor
My Top Center left: Artis
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Wings/Forwards:
10 year prime RS
Drexler ('86-'95): 23-7-6/2 stl/1 block/55% TS
Gervin ('75-'84): 27-6-3/1 stl/1 block/57% TS
Hondo ('67-'76): 23-7-6/partial steal data hovering around 1.5 on the back half of prime, not much blocks/50% TS
Barry ('66-'76): 28-8-5/partial steal data - led league in '75, not blocking much/53% TS - some of those years were years where the ABA wasn't good
10 year prime Playoffs
Drexler: 22-7-7/2 stl/1 block/54% TS
Gervin: 29/7/3/1 stl/1 block/56% TS
Hondo: 24/7/5/steals in 1.5 range on back half of prime, not much blocks/52% TS
Barry: 29/7/4/led '75 playoffs in steals, not blocking much/52% TS
Accolades:
Drexler: 10 All-Star, 5 All NBA, 2nd best player on 1 Title Team, best player on 2 Finals Teams
Gervin: 12 All-Star, 7 All NBA, 2 All ABA, 4 X Scoring Champ, teams never competed for titles
Hondo: 13 All-Star, 11 All NBA, 8 All D, best player on 1-3 title teams depending on interpretation, 2nd best player on several title teams, 3rd best player on 4 title teams.
Barry: 12 All-Star, 6 All NBA 4 ALL ABA, 1 X Scoring Champ, Finals MVP, carried a team that probably had no business winning a title to a title.
Adv. Metrics - take a lot of this with a healthy dose of salt for some of the guys.
Drexler: 7 years @ 10+ WS, peaking out @ 13.2, 3 years @ VORP +7, healthy box score metrics on both sides with prime BPM average of 6.6, RAPM indicates a productive post prime; hard to read too much into data in regards to his prime/peak impact.
Pippen: 6 years @ 10 + WS, peaking out @ 13.1, 2 years @ VORP +7, prime BPM average of 5.9, RAPM indicates he's still elite in '97, suspect impact in Portland years, but still very effective in '98 when he played.
Gervin: 7 years @ 10+ WS, peaking out @ 12, much lower VORP than the other 2 - never above 5 and peaking out @ 4.4, DBPM scores are pretty rough dragging his BPM data to +2.2
Hondo: 4 years @ 10+WS, peaking out @ 12.5, only 2 years of VORP Data in last 2 years of prime @ 3.7 & 3.6. BPM Data ranging from 1.3 to 2.6 - again, just 3 years of data.
Barry: 6 years @ 10 + WS, peaking out @ 14.0, VORP data not available all years but hit 5.7 & 6.0 in '75 & '76, BPM data indicates average impact on defense.
I'm going with Drexler. He's the most capable of carrying a team and his playoff #'s are materially better than Pip's - enough to sway me. Additionally, all signs point to him being a very strong defender - he doesn't have the accolades but he's pretty strong on that end.
Barry goes next - spent too much time in a weak ABA and I don't know what kind of stock to put in those monster #'s - the big thing keeping him in this for me is the carry job on the '75 W's - even though the NBA at that time is much weaker than anything Drexler had to compete with, it's a hell of a carry job, even though he only won the title because the NBA/ABA weren't merged (Kentucky was probably better) and Kareem broke his hand punching a basket and his dumpster fire of a team went 3-14 without him. So, there's kind of an asterisk with that title but it still happened.
Gervin will go afterwards; he's clearly the best offensive wing/forward left and I don't feel it's that close. But his defense really holds him back and he's pretty clearly the worst defensive player in this pack.
After the last thread, I need to speak to Elgin more - he was probably the most discussed player, so if I'm going to rate him lowly, I need more of an explanation. I've spoke to his TS% and the fact that I think it's hard to build around him, etc.
Let's go deeper.
1) Stockton & Malone vs. West & Baylor.
This group ranked Malone 14th, Stockton 21st & West 15th. For Baylor to be ranked pretty highly, I need him to contribute to winning at the same rate. From '62-'68 LA won 58.8% of their regular season games. That's a 48 win season. Stockton & Malone won 67% of their games from '88-'01 - that's a 55 win season. Unless you assume that the 60's was a lot harder, or that Stockton & Malone had appreciably better supporting casts, that says that the gap of Baylor to Stockton is about 7 wins per year. If we look at some of Stockton's contemporaries who just got in or are being discussed now (Drexler, Ewing, Pippen, Glove, Kidd), I don't see those guys as with 7 less wins per season.
Is it possible we have West ranked too highly and/or Stockton/Malone ranked too lowly? Maybe. But the gap is tough to reconcile for me at least.
2) What happens when Elgin is my best player?
We actually have a decent sample size of what happens when Elgin has to be "the man" due to his 1st two years not having West around and then various injuries at other times.
'59 - Baylor comes into a still very segregated league - there will be 5 African American players getting 25 + MPG. The Lakers were a mess the prior year at 19-53. The Lakers make a big improvement to 33-39 and finish 6th in SRS at -1.42 - a big improvement over last year. Baylor leads team in points, rebounds, assists, & TS%.
'60 - The Lakers dip down to 25-50. In combination of the two years, Baylor wins just 39% of his games.
However, there's other times where West missed time - let's see how the Lakers held up.
'68 - the Lakers go 19-12 without West - very nice carry job by Baylor here.
'63 - the Lakers go just 11-14 without West - this is mentioned as one of Baylor's peak years so to see the Lakers lose over 1/2 their games without West is a little disappointing to me.
'69 - the Lakers go 12-9 without West - that looks pretty good until you realize that the Lakers had Wilt at the time, who was decisively more valuable than Elgin.
On the flip-side, in '62, the Lakers go 17-15 without Baylor, .500 without him in '66, and 17-11 without him in '70 - we all know what happened in '71-'73.
Ultimately, if Baylor's my best player, I just don't know where I'm going. It's unfortunate that we didn't get to see Baylor in situations where he was the best player over a multi-year run with strong supporting casts unlike Hondo, Drexler, Payton & Frazier. Maybe good things would've happened - but we just don't know; '63 is really all we have to go on.
Given that Baylor starts to slow down shortly thereafter, that suggests a pretty short run and other guys getting support have a bit longer of runs. We do know that with him as the 2nd best player the Lakers had a TON of near misses at the title but maybe they shouldn't have . . .
3) The Lakers might have been romanticized in terms of their "near misses" at titles.
For argument's sake, let's say that Hondo & Frazier are each getting in the Top 35 and no other players form the 60's are.
'61 - Russell & Wilt both in the East, Robertson & Pettit in the West. Lakers lose to St Louis
'62 - Russell & Wilt in the East, Robertson & Pettit in the West. Lakers make finals.
'63 - Russell, Hondo (rookie year), Robertson in the East. Wilt, Pettit in the West. Lakers make finals.
'64 - Russell, Hondo, Robertson in the East. Wilt, Pettit (final year). Lakers lose to St. Louis in 1st round.
'65 - Russell, Hondo & Wilt are all in the East. Lakers make Finals.
'66 - Russell, Hondo & Wilt all in the East. Lakers make Finals.
'67 - Russell, Hondo & Wilt all in the East. Lakers go 36-45?! and are swept in 1st round.
'68 - Again - Russell, Hondo & Wilt all in the East. Lakers make Finals.
My point is that the Lakers didn't have a whole lot of elite top tier competition to go through in route to those Finals from '65-68. If the distribution of talent in those years was a little bit more even, are the Lakers stuck with two Finals appearances with just those guys? I don't know - but it's a little bit like Lebron's run of Finals appearances.
It's possible I'm being too harsh on Baylor. He'll get in without my support fairly soon I think anyway - so it probably doesn't matter - but I did feel I needed to explain it.
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GP (I'll be voting for him before Pippen & the A-Train): Very underrated, imo. I'll lead off with an outstanding elimination/closeout track record (which is far superior to Nash's).
22.8 PPG, 5.8 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.2 blk, 2.7 TO, 55.3% TS - all stats from '94-'03.
Had a knack for outplaying other strong point guards when it mattered because of his outstanding defensive presence and is one of very few point guards whose defensive impact is highlighted that he's the only one to win DPOY. A true all around player who averaged 21-8-5 during his prime while bringing elite defense and averaged 24-8-5 during the playoffs and had a tendency of showing up when it mattered. Has more Win Shares & VORP (the latter by a lot) vs. Nash (for example) even though one of Payton's best seasons ('99) was a lockout shortened one. His playoff prime #'s are actually understated because he didn't get to play as many games at his peak due to playing on some garbage teams.
GP isn't getting any other sort of traction, so I should probably address the two issues likely to crop up:
1) The Denver series. There's no justification for it. It really is indefensible. 3 of those games are in my elimination/closeout records and his 2 worst performances in those types of games were in the Denver series (Games 3 & 5).
1A) The '95 LA Series. Van Exel out played him. Between '94 & '95 these were two years where a Title was in play for Seattle and they didn't just take a dump on the bed, they got up and smeared it on the wall as well
That said - those series did factor into the overall playoff and elimination record I showed above - and the overall track record is strong. It's unfortunate that he peaked later than a lot of other point guards did - and by the time he peaked the talent on him was not championship caliber to say the least; if you consider '99 or 2000 his peak, it was an outright dumpster fire situation.
2) His RPAM numbers are not as good as they could be. I'm not a huge fan of +/- stats but I can't ignore them either.
'97 & '98 are very strong - '99 for some reason isn't great - but I suspect team context (middling overall record, was out there for virtually all meaningful minutes - 2,010 minutes in a 50 game season is a ton) - even though 2000 bounces back. '01-'03 are basically flat even though WIn Shares & VORP remain at very high levels in '01 & '02 in particular. I don't think his '03 season has tremendous impact - and I think his defense was starting to slip in '01 & '02. It was probably still good - but not necessarily warranting the All D honors he received either.
I'm OK with this wart because I don't think RPAM stats do a great job of explaining elite players' impact who play huge minutes on basically .500 teams - it feels like a "blind spot" for the model - moreso in the years I'm referencing than some of the later years. The inconsistency from '99 to '00 in the metric is odd even though his other performance indicators are fairly comparable and I've read some of the multi-year work in this area - which makes me trust the '99 number less. I'm definitely aware of the flaws in the '97-'00 data vs. other years, but I do think it's important to at least speak to the wart.
I take Payton over Kidd (by a nose) due to a stronger peak & stronger playoff performances - particularly in closeout/elimination settings. I take both over Frazier because Frazier has a material amount of fewer strong years.
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At this point, Artis is the best center left and it's not really close. No one else left matches his combination of peak + longevity.
I've watched some game tapes of him and it's not the most exciting thing to watch. You're just watching a big guy play who (in some years) moves with less agility than my 61 year old Dad and you can't help thinking "why didn't he do more" "why didn't he win more titles"? He was a turnover machine to boot and after '77 his defensive impact gets questionable. I get it. Set that aside for a second.
10 year prime: 21-15-3 blocks/60% TS. Is it troubling that his team lost 50 + 3 straight years in what should have been his prime? Of course. Is it troubling that Chicago finished in the bottom third of the league 3 straight times in defensive efficiency with someone who's calling card is defensive impact? Absolutely - although to be fair, those teams were a mess.
But he still has a robust post prime where he played a key role on some strong Spurs teams and that post prime includes 3 all-star squads. There's a few guys I need to see in before he will get some serious traction from me but we're in range where I don't think you're crazy if you're giving him support.
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Pick: Clyde Drexler
Alternate: Gary Payton