Post#33 » by drza » Tue Aug 29, 2017 8:55 pm
Great is the enemy of good. I've been time strapped, but I also have some big things I'd like to do. Ideally, at the top of the list, I'd really like to do a full in-depth run-down on Payton, Frazier and Kidd and compare them with each other. I just haven't had time to, and if the thread closes before like 6 hours from now, it seems unlikely that I will before one goes in. But, I can at least look a bit at Payton vs Kidd.
Thumbnail comps (style makes the fight):
Payton: Strong scoring point guard, particularly in the midrange or off the post-up. Not devastatingly quick, but had size and knew how to use it. Also not a volume shooter from behind the arc.
On the continuum of great point guards, not particularly impressive as a floor general or distributor. Was functional at handling the ball and running the offense, but his passes were not inspired...he wasn't passing people open all that often, nor was he distributing into finishing situations at that high of a volume (again, compared to other great point guards).
On defense, his forte was tight on-ball defense, particularly against strong guards (including 2s). Had quick, strong hands for stripping and steals. Would fight through picks, and size allowed him to switch. Solid rebounder, but not exceptional.
Kidd: Scoring is his weakness. Entered NBA with weak jumper altogether. Developed a strong spot-up 3 at solid volume, but never learned to set up a jumper off the dribble. Iso scoring weak.
One of the best floor general point guards ever, especially on the break but in the half court as well. Couldn't break a defense down with his threat to score, but still excellent at passing teammates open and finding players at volume in the positions in which they liked to finish.
On defense, he was solid on-ball but his biggest strengths were his size, ability to switch and play help defense on up to bigger wings. Also a strong defensive rebounder.
Boxscore comp, 10-year averages, per 100 numbers
Payton 93 - 02: 27.4 pts/100 (53.7% TS), 10.2 ast, 3.5 TO, 6 reb, 3 stl, 0.3 blk
Kidd 98 - 07: 20.6 pts/100 (50.8% TS), 12.9 ast, 4.4 TO, 9.6 reb, 2.8 stl, 0.4 blk
Playoffs
Payton 93 - 02: 26.3 pts/100 (52.3% TS), 8.3 ast, 3.4 TO, 6.3 reb, 2.3 stl, 0.3 blk
Kidd 98 - 07: 20.6 pts/100 (49.0% TS), 11.8 ast, 4.7 TO, 9.9 reb, 2.5 stl, 0.4 blk
Available +/- numbers (net on/off +/-):
Payton 94 - 02: avg +5.5, median +5.4, max +17.5
Kidd 98 - 07: avg +9.3, median +10.8, max +21.1
Playoffs
Payton (only 01 - 02, not revelatory)
Kidd 01 - 07: + 10.0
Comparison thoughts
Payton was clearly the more effective scorer of the two, but his mechanisms of scoring impact aren't the type that generally translate to high impact. He wasn't a high efficiency scorer, and he didn't stretch the floor. His scoring likely caused defenses to worry more about him, which should supplement his playmaking and help him to make life easier for his teammates. But, on the continuum of great guards, his playmaking/passing doesn't seem to be elite enough to generate the huge PG team offense initiating boosts.
Kidd was clearly the more effective floor general of the two, pushing into the historically elite in that area. He also developed into a good spot-up shooter, especially later in his prime and post-prime. While he wouldn't get the type of scoring/playmaking combo boost that Payton had, he likely would be expected to have the PG team offense initiating boost.
Defensively, both were big guards that played tough defense. There was a lot of overlap in their skillsets, but where they diverge, I'd say that Payton's strength was more of the on-ball glove, if you will, while Kidd's divergent strength was help defense/rebounding.
The available impact stats for both (I didn't look much at RAPM, since we have that for Kidd's entire prime but only the tail end of Payton's) support my intuition. Kidd had better regular season on/off +/- scores in their primes by average, median and max. The comp isn't a blowout in that respect, but my intuition from watching them and the types of trends that I see as far as characteristics of players that lead to higher impact, would have been that Kidd was the higher impact player. At least to this level of analysis, it appears that this was the case.
In the postseason, Kidd's +/- footprint translated almost faithfully. He had the same strengths and weaknesses as he did in the regular season, and his effectiveness in both seasons seemed similar. Payton's boxscore numbers in the postseason didn't improve, and though I don't have the playoff on/off +/- scores from Payton's prime, there isn't anything in my memory or from the numbers available to suggest that he made a big impact jump in the postseason. Thus, if Kidd was having the bigger regular season impact, I don't see any reason not to believe that he was having the bigger postseason impact as well.
Thus, in this comp of Oakland PG legends, I still have Kidd comfortably over the Glove.
My 2nd vote isn't as clear-cut. Right now, I'm leaning Isiah Thomas. Hopefully I'll have more time to go in more depth with more candidates in the next thread.
Vote: Jason Kidd
2nd: Isiah Thomas
