Round of 16 NBA ReDraft: mattg vs. Prez

[humanrefutation]

Which team would be better in 2017-18 season?
Note: Contracts don't matter. This is a one-season sample size. The number next to the player's name reflects the pick they were selected with.
Voting ends on Tuesday.

Information about the draft itself can be found here:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1619957

mattg:
PG: Avery Bradley (66) / Delon Wright (240)
SG: Norman Powell (126) / Shaun Livingston (152)
SF: Gordon Hayward (25) / Norman Powell
PF: Tristan Thompson (96) / Nikola Mirotic (194)
C: Myles Turner (36) / Tristan Thompson

versus

Prez:
PG: De'Aaron Fox (155) / Dante Exum (200)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. (113) / Josh Richardson (213)
SF: Robert Covington (83) / P.J. Tucker (143)
PF: Anthony Davis (8) / Robert Covington
C: Jusuf Nurkic (53) / Anthony Davis

[mattg]

My draft strategy and some team info are outlined below. I'll also go over how I see the individual match up play out below that.

Spoiler:

#25 mattg
PG: Avery Bradley (66) / Delon Wright (240)
SG: Norman Powell (126) / Shaun Livingston (152)
SF: Gordon Hayward (25) / Norman Powell
PF: Tristan Thompson (96) / Nikola Mirotic (194)
C: Myles Turner (36) / Tristan Thompson

So that's my roster, and now I'm going to go over my draft process, strategy, and team building.

Few basics things about my draft mindset: positional versatility to not box yourself in in who you can pick is very valuable, as are elite skills, targeting of value right before depth at a certain position falls off, ability to draft into clearly defined roles.

Once I found out I had the 25th pick I went over the rosters of every team in the league and wrote down who I thought the best players were, usually about the 2-3 best from every team, with exceptions here and there. Separately, I also made a list of probably 40 role players/starters at each position that I would reference for later picks. The idea of doing an overall big board at my draft position was a waste of time, in my opinion, so I didn't make one. What I did was come up with was a list of 24 players I believed would be taken before I first picked. I ended up getting 21 of the 24 correct, only missing on Kyrie, Derozan, and Blake Griffin. That left some players I didn't expect to be there, to be in play. Where I was now picking I had my choices narrowed to Hayward, Beal, and CJ McCollum. There was a massive drop off in elite perimeter offensive players after those guys which is why I had them valued in the draft higher than guys like Marc Gasol or Paul Millsap at that point, based on who was left. Keep in mind throughout the draft, value changes relative to what has been taken a, waht I have, and what is still out there, its very dynamic.
Ultimately what it came down to here though was that Hayward was the best offensive player with the most diverse skill set going into a situation in Boston where I expect him to have a huge year. He also possessed the most positional versatility which kept my future options open and didn't pigeon hole me into forcing picks. Also, he's always been a favorite player of mine here to the point its a meme so I essentially had no choice.

My 2nd pick of Myles Turner is somewhat speculative. There wasn't any perimeter talent that I thought was significantly better than what I could get in the 3rd round. But, where I was drafting there were 3 centers I felt were draft able. No PFs were even considered with the depth of the spot. All the choices at C provided the defense I wanted there, but Myles Turner has the ability to shoot. Combined with his upside from going into his 3rd season which is historically when many guys take a significant leap forward in their level of play. And he's now going to be his team's primary focus after the Paul George trade so he will have more opportunity than before. I'm expecting a big year from him.

By my 3rd pick I knew I needed a guard badly, as the guys left were thinning rapidly. Luckily Avery Bradley fell into my lap, there isn't much more to say about it. I didn't expect him to still be on the board. Excellent defender, can shoot, gives some scoring ability, gives further positional versatility, etc. The more important thing is that this pick helped forge my team's identity and play style. When I took Bradley I knew there were enough picks left where I could make my roster absolutely excellent defensively, and excel tremendously in certain aspects on that side of the ball. Offensively it just firmed up my idea of running a motion based system with lots of screening off ball, pick n pops for turner, lanes opened to drive for Hayward and Bradley off all the movement,etc.

4th Pick of Tristan Thompson was my easiest decision. He's an elite offensive rebounder and can feast down low diving in for putbacks. Because of Turner's play style I saw it as an excellent fit to give Thompson room to do what he does best. Thompson also hustles, sets nice screens, and can move his feet defensively. Based on fit/role/skill set this was my most no brainer pick.

At this point in the draft it's sort of a free for all. I had my lists of guys, and I'd occasionally make a condensed list of targets as I approached my next pick. I was looking for fit here for sure. I felt strongly about my team's identity and I wanted to kick it up a notch with another elite ball pressuring guard in Norman Powell. Now some people might think this is strange, but he might win MIP this year. I'm sure most here remember him torching the bucks in the playoffs once he finally was given the chance off the bench. This year, Complainin' Demarre Carrol is gone and Norman Powell is starting. His worth ethic is raved about as is his attitude, Toronto has high hopes for him. In my eyes, his aggression, athleticism, and tenacity defensively with Bradley gives my roster the scariest perimeter duo for ball handlers in the league. Aside from the forced turnovers, just making offenses take a long time to develop because of how long it takes to dribble up court is massively effective. On the offensive end Powell is bringing athletic slashing, and pure aggression to the table as well as a potentially very good 3pt shot. His stroke looked excellent in the post season and I'm betting on his off season work paying off. He's a good fit in a motion system because he can play in the flow and as a 4th option he should get excellent shot opportunities.

Picking Livingston next was about versatility. I needed a backup PG based on my earlier picks. Shaun also can play on the wing though with his size and has his nifty mid post game to get some action going off the bench. Intangibly he also provides strong veteran presence and leadership having been through it all as a player. I think his calmness and ability to settle a team functions well with some aggressive athletes who want to get out and go.

Mirotic was a value/BPA pick. There were a number of bigs I considered, most notably RIchaun Holmes, but I felt I couldn't pass on Nikola. He provides my bench with much needed scoring punch and can shoot the ball. Something that's very important in a motion system. He's also a nice fit next to either of my other bigs. He also has the potential to break out this year and play very well, he's still fairly young.

Last pick is Delon Wright. He's a pet of mine. I wanted a true backup PG, and was targeting a ball pressuring one, specifically TJ McConnell who I almost took earlier as well, but he was snatched up. Wright I always had my eye on though, because he has a lot going for him. His numbers when he got the chance to play last year were very promising, and he was excellent defensively. His tools are great on that end and he passes the eye test and calculator quiz. Also been very impressed with his cool demeanor running an offense, which is all I'd really be asking from him off the bench. He's another guy who looked great in the playoffs against the bucks and will have a lot of opportunity this year with Cory Joseph gone and Lowry inevitably injured. Again, somewhat of an upside/projection pick, but I don't think there's any doubt he can defend.

As far as how I view my team, I think it's very well rounded. It has a good #1 option in Hayward who is a 5 tool player. There are multiple shooters on the court as well as always an inside presence to space the floor. The guards are excellent slashers and off ball cutters which helps soften the D to open my shooters. There is also great offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and easy baskets which is important because of a lack of true PG or elite creator. However, the roster also possesses very good athleticism to get out in transition to get some easier scores as well. On the whole I'd very my team as average to slightly above average offensively (though if Turner and Power break out the offense could be great). I do wish I had 1 more shooter however.

Defensively is where I believe my team makes it's mark. Avery Bradley and Norman Powell are nightmares for ball handlers. Some teams here will legitimately have difficulties getting the ball across the timeline on occasion. The ball pressure is out of this world. I believe ball pressure to be the most underrated defensive skill, and arguably the most rare. The only other guard defenders I'd put near these 2 are Beverly and Smart. Ball pressure takes teams out of their offense, is the best way to stop high PnR, and causes a lot of turnovers which lead to the easy buckets my team is looking for. In addition to the pesky guards, they are backed up by Hayward who is a solid team defender and can make some helpside plays now and then, Thompson who hustles, can move his feet on ball screens and switches, and boxes out and contests hard. And finally Turner who is the paint protector and shotblocker who holds everything together. Off the bench Livingston can play 1-3 and not kill you, and Delon Wright is a guy who will be in the passing lanes which combined with pressured guards=dunk city on the other end.

Personally, I'd rank my defense in the top 5 among these teams. Though if I were to point out a weakness it would be a defensive 3/4 to check guys like Kawhi and Lebron.

Now in a matchup vs my team and Prez's I think there is one big key and that's the fact that Prez only has 2 bigs in his rotation. This allows my team to dictate how the game is played and play around Nurkic getting tired and needing to rest. Additionally, I have the versatility to start Nikola Mirotic which gives his lineup big problems defensively. If I play my 2 shooting big men against Davis/Nurkic I can spam pick and pops with Hayward and whoever Nurkic is guarding while sticking the other big on the 3 point line on the opposite side to take Davis out of the play. Not only does this put Nurkic in the position of moving his feet and chasing around the perimeter, which is exact what he doesn't want to be doing, but it opens huge gaps from the strongside corner and weakside wing for my guys to cut to the basket. It doesn't hurt that Avery Bradley and Norman Powell are excellent at off ball slashing and will punish any turned heads focusing on the screen action. When Nurkic is tired my team then gets to bring in a fresh Tristan Thompson who will either be battling tired starters or something like a PJ Tucker/Davis frontcourt. I think TT can crush taht on the offensive glass to give us some extra possessions and garbage buckets. Defensively TT is also solid defensively and I have no worries about his ability to guard the small ball 4 Prez's team could play since they dont much in terms of ball skills to speak of. In terms of guarding his guys inside, Myles Turner is an excellent match up for Davis, but I think more importantly it is how my guards will assist in that department.

Onto the guard play. First thing to notice is that I lack a true PG in the starting lineup. However it doesn't concern me too much. The team will be playing a heavy motion style offense with tons of ball movement and a lot of offball screening action for the shooters and also to open back cuts when we invert the floor and put the bigs on the perimeter. And while none of Bradley, Powell, Hayward are big time playmakers, they can all run a ball screen now and then, even if it is rudimentary drive and kick. Off the bench I do have 2 guys who can play a more traditional PG role in Wright and Livingston. Livingston will seek mostly to use his mid post back down game for his little J and to also set some guys up with his vision from that spot. Shaun shouldn't have much difficulty getting to his spot and shooting over whoever defends him in this match up. Now for Delon Wright. He gives another option to just get the team into it's offense which he does with his calm demeanor, but moreso he is here for his defense. I'd recommend anyone to check out his lineup data with Norman Powell and what those 2 do to opponents defensively. The other thing I'd mention is that Prez will be relying heavily on Dearon Fox at the PG spot. Now don't get me wrong, I LOVE the kids potential. He's fast as hell, gets to the basket, defends, has an awesome demeanor and mind, I think he's the next Mike Conley personally. BUT, he's also a rookie. And like Conley I think it's gonna take Fox 3-4 years to figure things out. In my mind, there is absolutely zero chance that Fox is a better player than Delon Wright right now or this season.

That brings me back to defending Davis and Nurkic inside. Obviously Davis is gonna get his scores, he's too good not to. And Nurkic is an animal inside himself. My bigs are pretty stout defensively which is a good start, but where my team makes it's mark is ball pressure from the guards. Bradley and Powell will be in the shorts of whoever they are guarding, and fortunately for me, Prez doesn't have any guys with strong ball skills to punish that. So while my guards are making things extremely difficult for Prez to get into his offense (draining the shot clock just to advance the ball, making him initiate offense from 40 feet out) my guys will be disrupting ball screen action by staying glued to the hip of the ball handler and creating chaos on the ball that really disrupts offensivel flow and creates turnovers. For a more detailed explanation of how I'd be defending screens with this line up see this link https://coachingtoolbox.net/defense/brad-stevens-notes.html

To piggyback on that, one of the other ways I'd plan to try defending against his bigs is by fronting them. With the entry pass now harder to make, I'd have my perimeter guys play extremely tight on ball trying to shade the ball handlers towards having to make a cross body entry pass under duress. This kind of defensive look is somewhat risky because it can lead to dunks if the passing is good, but it can also force a lot of turnovers for layups in the opposite direction.

Overall, I just think it's easier for my team to dictate the pace of the game. My team has more lineup versatility and different looks it can throw out there.

If anyone has any questions let me know

[machu46]

I tend to distrust rookies in things like this, but I think Prez's team just works really well together. He put together one of my favorite teams in this entire exercise

[M-C-G]

That Mattg team is really good given he didn't have a top 10 player, like the way it is built

[mattg]

I'd also point out the similarities my team would have with last years Jazz team and how well they fared as opposed to the Pelicans who Prez's team is more comparable to. Hard to truly take advantage inside when you are outmatched on the perimeter.

[humanrefutation]

mattg has a more balanced team, IMO. It's close, though. I really like Prez's Davis/Nurkic frontcourt, but I have a feeling that it will be negated by poor spacing from the guards.

[Bucks in 6]

I’d go with mattg


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[ReginaldDwight]

mattg has a more balanced team, IMO. It's close, though. I really like Prez's Davis/Nurkic frontcourt, but I have a feeling that it will be negated by poor spacing from the guards.

mattg has one of the most balanced teams, I believe in Hayward more then most so I think he was good value there.